Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESEE...AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, scattered large hail and areas of damaging winds are expected through the afternoon into the evening from portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Lower MS Valley into much of TN and southern KY... Tornado probabilities have been increased within an Enhanced Risk for the unfolding tornado situation over western into Middle TN and far southern KY, and extending into northern MS. Cells have remained discrete and are currently within a developing instability plume, adjacent to an area of enhanced low-level shear over Middle TN, southern KY and northern MS. The combination of favorable storm mode, and fully-effective 0-1 SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 will pose a damaging tornado risk through the late afternoon. The greatest threat area may remain relatively concentrated due to the cooler air mass to the east, but an isolated strong tornado or two is possible. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2305. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023/ ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and a positive-tilt trough over the southern High Plains. Increasing warm-sector moisture (generally lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, along with considerable deep-layer/low-level shear, will be favorable factors for a long-duration severe risk through the afternoon into tonight. However, the likelihood of a complex/mixed quasi-linear convective mode casts uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe risk, particularly regarding a supercell-related sustained/focused tornado risk. It is also noted that some guidance suggests that 1-3km AGL winds may somewhat weaken by late afternoon/early evening within the warm sector, while noting SRH will still remain favorable for rotating/severe storms. Storms should continue to increase in coverage through early afternoon, initially near the front across Arkansas northeastward into western portions of Tennessee/Kentucky. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support some hail potential, especially the first part of the day, but the tendency for storm clustering will otherwise limit this overall potential, as well as limiting prospects for more consequential hail magnitudes. As the boundary layer warms this afternoon, the potential for initially semi-discrete supercells will increase along with related damaging wind risk as well as tornado potential, which will persist through the afternoon/evening even with a quasi-linear convective mode. As warm-sector inhibition further weakens later this afternoon, additional deepening convection may develop within weak pre-frontal convergence/confluence regime, mainly across Mississippi into Alabama, with this development eventually merging with or taking over as the main convective band this evening. Similarly, pre-frontal confluence may support isolated supercellular development along the Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle vicinity through late night hours/early Sunday, within a somewhat separate regime capable of a few severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESEE...AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, scattered large hail and areas of damaging winds are expected through the afternoon into the evening from portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Lower MS Valley into much of TN and southern KY... Tornado probabilities have been increased within an Enhanced Risk for the unfolding tornado situation over western into Middle TN and far southern KY, and extending into northern MS. Cells have remained discrete and are currently within a developing instability plume, adjacent to an area of enhanced low-level shear over Middle TN, southern KY and northern MS. The combination of favorable storm mode, and fully-effective 0-1 SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 will pose a damaging tornado risk through the late afternoon. The greatest threat area may remain relatively concentrated due to the cooler air mass to the east, but an isolated strong tornado or two is possible. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2305. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023/ ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and a positive-tilt trough over the southern High Plains. Increasing warm-sector moisture (generally lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, along with considerable deep-layer/low-level shear, will be favorable factors for a long-duration severe risk through the afternoon into tonight. However, the likelihood of a complex/mixed quasi-linear convective mode casts uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe risk, particularly regarding a supercell-related sustained/focused tornado risk. It is also noted that some guidance suggests that 1-3km AGL winds may somewhat weaken by late afternoon/early evening within the warm sector, while noting SRH will still remain favorable for rotating/severe storms. Storms should continue to increase in coverage through early afternoon, initially near the front across Arkansas northeastward into western portions of Tennessee/Kentucky. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support some hail potential, especially the first part of the day, but the tendency for storm clustering will otherwise limit this overall potential, as well as limiting prospects for more consequential hail magnitudes. As the boundary layer warms this afternoon, the potential for initially semi-discrete supercells will increase along with related damaging wind risk as well as tornado potential, which will persist through the afternoon/evening even with a quasi-linear convective mode. As warm-sector inhibition further weakens later this afternoon, additional deepening convection may develop within weak pre-frontal convergence/confluence regime, mainly across Mississippi into Alabama, with this development eventually merging with or taking over as the main convective band this evening. Similarly, pre-frontal confluence may support isolated supercellular development along the Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle vicinity through late night hours/early Sunday, within a somewhat separate regime capable of a few severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESEE...AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, scattered large hail and areas of damaging winds are expected through the afternoon into the evening from portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Lower MS Valley into much of TN and southern KY... Tornado probabilities have been increased within an Enhanced Risk for the unfolding tornado situation over western into Middle TN and far southern KY, and extending into northern MS. Cells have remained discrete and are currently within a developing instability plume, adjacent to an area of enhanced low-level shear over Middle TN, southern KY and northern MS. The combination of favorable storm mode, and fully-effective 0-1 SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 will pose a damaging tornado risk through the late afternoon. The greatest threat area may remain relatively concentrated due to the cooler air mass to the east, but an isolated strong tornado or two is possible. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2305. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023/ ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and a positive-tilt trough over the southern High Plains. Increasing warm-sector moisture (generally lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, along with considerable deep-layer/low-level shear, will be favorable factors for a long-duration severe risk through the afternoon into tonight. However, the likelihood of a complex/mixed quasi-linear convective mode casts uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe risk, particularly regarding a supercell-related sustained/focused tornado risk. It is also noted that some guidance suggests that 1-3km AGL winds may somewhat weaken by late afternoon/early evening within the warm sector, while noting SRH will still remain favorable for rotating/severe storms. Storms should continue to increase in coverage through early afternoon, initially near the front across Arkansas northeastward into western portions of Tennessee/Kentucky. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support some hail potential, especially the first part of the day, but the tendency for storm clustering will otherwise limit this overall potential, as well as limiting prospects for more consequential hail magnitudes. As the boundary layer warms this afternoon, the potential for initially semi-discrete supercells will increase along with related damaging wind risk as well as tornado potential, which will persist through the afternoon/evening even with a quasi-linear convective mode. As warm-sector inhibition further weakens later this afternoon, additional deepening convection may develop within weak pre-frontal convergence/confluence regime, mainly across Mississippi into Alabama, with this development eventually merging with or taking over as the main convective band this evening. Similarly, pre-frontal confluence may support isolated supercellular development along the Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle vicinity through late night hours/early Sunday, within a somewhat separate regime capable of a few severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESEE...AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, scattered large hail and areas of damaging winds are expected through the afternoon into the evening from portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Lower MS Valley into much of TN and southern KY... Tornado probabilities have been increased within an Enhanced Risk for the unfolding tornado situation over western into Middle TN and far southern KY, and extending into northern MS. Cells have remained discrete and are currently within a developing instability plume, adjacent to an area of enhanced low-level shear over Middle TN, southern KY and northern MS. The combination of favorable storm mode, and fully-effective 0-1 SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 will pose a damaging tornado risk through the late afternoon. The greatest threat area may remain relatively concentrated due to the cooler air mass to the east, but an isolated strong tornado or two is possible. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2305. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023/ ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and a positive-tilt trough over the southern High Plains. Increasing warm-sector moisture (generally lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, along with considerable deep-layer/low-level shear, will be favorable factors for a long-duration severe risk through the afternoon into tonight. However, the likelihood of a complex/mixed quasi-linear convective mode casts uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe risk, particularly regarding a supercell-related sustained/focused tornado risk. It is also noted that some guidance suggests that 1-3km AGL winds may somewhat weaken by late afternoon/early evening within the warm sector, while noting SRH will still remain favorable for rotating/severe storms. Storms should continue to increase in coverage through early afternoon, initially near the front across Arkansas northeastward into western portions of Tennessee/Kentucky. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support some hail potential, especially the first part of the day, but the tendency for storm clustering will otherwise limit this overall potential, as well as limiting prospects for more consequential hail magnitudes. As the boundary layer warms this afternoon, the potential for initially semi-discrete supercells will increase along with related damaging wind risk as well as tornado potential, which will persist through the afternoon/evening even with a quasi-linear convective mode. As warm-sector inhibition further weakens later this afternoon, additional deepening convection may develop within weak pre-frontal convergence/confluence regime, mainly across Mississippi into Alabama, with this development eventually merging with or taking over as the main convective band this evening. Similarly, pre-frontal confluence may support isolated supercellular development along the Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle vicinity through late night hours/early Sunday, within a somewhat separate regime capable of a few severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESEE...AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, scattered large hail and areas of damaging winds are expected through the afternoon into the evening from portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Lower MS Valley into much of TN and southern KY... Tornado probabilities have been increased within an Enhanced Risk for the unfolding tornado situation over western into Middle TN and far southern KY, and extending into northern MS. Cells have remained discrete and are currently within a developing instability plume, adjacent to an area of enhanced low-level shear over Middle TN, southern KY and northern MS. The combination of favorable storm mode, and fully-effective 0-1 SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 will pose a damaging tornado risk through the late afternoon. The greatest threat area may remain relatively concentrated due to the cooler air mass to the east, but an isolated strong tornado or two is possible. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2305. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023/ ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and a positive-tilt trough over the southern High Plains. Increasing warm-sector moisture (generally lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, along with considerable deep-layer/low-level shear, will be favorable factors for a long-duration severe risk through the afternoon into tonight. However, the likelihood of a complex/mixed quasi-linear convective mode casts uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe risk, particularly regarding a supercell-related sustained/focused tornado risk. It is also noted that some guidance suggests that 1-3km AGL winds may somewhat weaken by late afternoon/early evening within the warm sector, while noting SRH will still remain favorable for rotating/severe storms. Storms should continue to increase in coverage through early afternoon, initially near the front across Arkansas northeastward into western portions of Tennessee/Kentucky. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support some hail potential, especially the first part of the day, but the tendency for storm clustering will otherwise limit this overall potential, as well as limiting prospects for more consequential hail magnitudes. As the boundary layer warms this afternoon, the potential for initially semi-discrete supercells will increase along with related damaging wind risk as well as tornado potential, which will persist through the afternoon/evening even with a quasi-linear convective mode. As warm-sector inhibition further weakens later this afternoon, additional deepening convection may develop within weak pre-frontal convergence/confluence regime, mainly across Mississippi into Alabama, with this development eventually merging with or taking over as the main convective band this evening. Similarly, pre-frontal confluence may support isolated supercellular development along the Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle vicinity through late night hours/early Sunday, within a somewhat separate regime capable of a few severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESEE...AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, scattered large hail and areas of damaging winds are expected through the afternoon into the evening from portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Lower MS Valley into much of TN and southern KY... Tornado probabilities have been increased within an Enhanced Risk for the unfolding tornado situation over western into Middle TN and far southern KY, and extending into northern MS. Cells have remained discrete and are currently within a developing instability plume, adjacent to an area of enhanced low-level shear over Middle TN, southern KY and northern MS. The combination of favorable storm mode, and fully-effective 0-1 SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 will pose a damaging tornado risk through the late afternoon. The greatest threat area may remain relatively concentrated due to the cooler air mass to the east, but an isolated strong tornado or two is possible. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2305. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023/ ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and a positive-tilt trough over the southern High Plains. Increasing warm-sector moisture (generally lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, along with considerable deep-layer/low-level shear, will be favorable factors for a long-duration severe risk through the afternoon into tonight. However, the likelihood of a complex/mixed quasi-linear convective mode casts uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe risk, particularly regarding a supercell-related sustained/focused tornado risk. It is also noted that some guidance suggests that 1-3km AGL winds may somewhat weaken by late afternoon/early evening within the warm sector, while noting SRH will still remain favorable for rotating/severe storms. Storms should continue to increase in coverage through early afternoon, initially near the front across Arkansas northeastward into western portions of Tennessee/Kentucky. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support some hail potential, especially the first part of the day, but the tendency for storm clustering will otherwise limit this overall potential, as well as limiting prospects for more consequential hail magnitudes. As the boundary layer warms this afternoon, the potential for initially semi-discrete supercells will increase along with related damaging wind risk as well as tornado potential, which will persist through the afternoon/evening even with a quasi-linear convective mode. As warm-sector inhibition further weakens later this afternoon, additional deepening convection may develop within weak pre-frontal convergence/confluence regime, mainly across Mississippi into Alabama, with this development eventually merging with or taking over as the main convective band this evening. Similarly, pre-frontal confluence may support isolated supercellular development along the Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle vicinity through late night hours/early Sunday, within a somewhat separate regime capable of a few severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESEE...AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, scattered large hail and areas of damaging winds are expected through the afternoon into the evening from portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Lower MS Valley into much of TN and southern KY... Tornado probabilities have been increased within an Enhanced Risk for the unfolding tornado situation over western into Middle TN and far southern KY, and extending into northern MS. Cells have remained discrete and are currently within a developing instability plume, adjacent to an area of enhanced low-level shear over Middle TN, southern KY and northern MS. The combination of favorable storm mode, and fully-effective 0-1 SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 will pose a damaging tornado risk through the late afternoon. The greatest threat area may remain relatively concentrated due to the cooler air mass to the east, but an isolated strong tornado or two is possible. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2305. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023/ ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and a positive-tilt trough over the southern High Plains. Increasing warm-sector moisture (generally lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, along with considerable deep-layer/low-level shear, will be favorable factors for a long-duration severe risk through the afternoon into tonight. However, the likelihood of a complex/mixed quasi-linear convective mode casts uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe risk, particularly regarding a supercell-related sustained/focused tornado risk. It is also noted that some guidance suggests that 1-3km AGL winds may somewhat weaken by late afternoon/early evening within the warm sector, while noting SRH will still remain favorable for rotating/severe storms. Storms should continue to increase in coverage through early afternoon, initially near the front across Arkansas northeastward into western portions of Tennessee/Kentucky. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support some hail potential, especially the first part of the day, but the tendency for storm clustering will otherwise limit this overall potential, as well as limiting prospects for more consequential hail magnitudes. As the boundary layer warms this afternoon, the potential for initially semi-discrete supercells will increase along with related damaging wind risk as well as tornado potential, which will persist through the afternoon/evening even with a quasi-linear convective mode. As warm-sector inhibition further weakens later this afternoon, additional deepening convection may develop within weak pre-frontal convergence/confluence regime, mainly across Mississippi into Alabama, with this development eventually merging with or taking over as the main convective band this evening. Similarly, pre-frontal confluence may support isolated supercellular development along the Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle vicinity through late night hours/early Sunday, within a somewhat separate regime capable of a few severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESEE...AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, scattered large hail and areas of damaging winds are expected through the afternoon into the evening from portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Lower MS Valley into much of TN and southern KY... Tornado probabilities have been increased within an Enhanced Risk for the unfolding tornado situation over western into Middle TN and far southern KY, and extending into northern MS. Cells have remained discrete and are currently within a developing instability plume, adjacent to an area of enhanced low-level shear over Middle TN, southern KY and northern MS. The combination of favorable storm mode, and fully-effective 0-1 SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 will pose a damaging tornado risk through the late afternoon. The greatest threat area may remain relatively concentrated due to the cooler air mass to the east, but an isolated strong tornado or two is possible. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2305. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023/ ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and a positive-tilt trough over the southern High Plains. Increasing warm-sector moisture (generally lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, along with considerable deep-layer/low-level shear, will be favorable factors for a long-duration severe risk through the afternoon into tonight. However, the likelihood of a complex/mixed quasi-linear convective mode casts uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe risk, particularly regarding a supercell-related sustained/focused tornado risk. It is also noted that some guidance suggests that 1-3km AGL winds may somewhat weaken by late afternoon/early evening within the warm sector, while noting SRH will still remain favorable for rotating/severe storms. Storms should continue to increase in coverage through early afternoon, initially near the front across Arkansas northeastward into western portions of Tennessee/Kentucky. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support some hail potential, especially the first part of the day, but the tendency for storm clustering will otherwise limit this overall potential, as well as limiting prospects for more consequential hail magnitudes. As the boundary layer warms this afternoon, the potential for initially semi-discrete supercells will increase along with related damaging wind risk as well as tornado potential, which will persist through the afternoon/evening even with a quasi-linear convective mode. As warm-sector inhibition further weakens later this afternoon, additional deepening convection may develop within weak pre-frontal convergence/confluence regime, mainly across Mississippi into Alabama, with this development eventually merging with or taking over as the main convective band this evening. Similarly, pre-frontal confluence may support isolated supercellular development along the Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle vicinity through late night hours/early Sunday, within a somewhat separate regime capable of a few severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESEE...AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, scattered large hail and areas of damaging winds are expected through the afternoon into the evening from portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Lower MS Valley into much of TN and southern KY... Tornado probabilities have been increased within an Enhanced Risk for the unfolding tornado situation over western into Middle TN and far southern KY, and extending into northern MS. Cells have remained discrete and are currently within a developing instability plume, adjacent to an area of enhanced low-level shear over Middle TN, southern KY and northern MS. The combination of favorable storm mode, and fully-effective 0-1 SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 will pose a damaging tornado risk through the late afternoon. The greatest threat area may remain relatively concentrated due to the cooler air mass to the east, but an isolated strong tornado or two is possible. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2305. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023/ ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and a positive-tilt trough over the southern High Plains. Increasing warm-sector moisture (generally lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, along with considerable deep-layer/low-level shear, will be favorable factors for a long-duration severe risk through the afternoon into tonight. However, the likelihood of a complex/mixed quasi-linear convective mode casts uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe risk, particularly regarding a supercell-related sustained/focused tornado risk. It is also noted that some guidance suggests that 1-3km AGL winds may somewhat weaken by late afternoon/early evening within the warm sector, while noting SRH will still remain favorable for rotating/severe storms. Storms should continue to increase in coverage through early afternoon, initially near the front across Arkansas northeastward into western portions of Tennessee/Kentucky. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support some hail potential, especially the first part of the day, but the tendency for storm clustering will otherwise limit this overall potential, as well as limiting prospects for more consequential hail magnitudes. As the boundary layer warms this afternoon, the potential for initially semi-discrete supercells will increase along with related damaging wind risk as well as tornado potential, which will persist through the afternoon/evening even with a quasi-linear convective mode. As warm-sector inhibition further weakens later this afternoon, additional deepening convection may develop within weak pre-frontal convergence/confluence regime, mainly across Mississippi into Alabama, with this development eventually merging with or taking over as the main convective band this evening. Similarly, pre-frontal confluence may support isolated supercellular development along the Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle vicinity through late night hours/early Sunday, within a somewhat separate regime capable of a few severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESEE...AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, scattered large hail and areas of damaging winds are expected through the afternoon into the evening from portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Lower MS Valley into much of TN and southern KY... Tornado probabilities have been increased within an Enhanced Risk for the unfolding tornado situation over western into Middle TN and far southern KY, and extending into northern MS. Cells have remained discrete and are currently within a developing instability plume, adjacent to an area of enhanced low-level shear over Middle TN, southern KY and northern MS. The combination of favorable storm mode, and fully-effective 0-1 SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 will pose a damaging tornado risk through the late afternoon. The greatest threat area may remain relatively concentrated due to the cooler air mass to the east, but an isolated strong tornado or two is possible. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2305. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023/ ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and a positive-tilt trough over the southern High Plains. Increasing warm-sector moisture (generally lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, along with considerable deep-layer/low-level shear, will be favorable factors for a long-duration severe risk through the afternoon into tonight. However, the likelihood of a complex/mixed quasi-linear convective mode casts uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe risk, particularly regarding a supercell-related sustained/focused tornado risk. It is also noted that some guidance suggests that 1-3km AGL winds may somewhat weaken by late afternoon/early evening within the warm sector, while noting SRH will still remain favorable for rotating/severe storms. Storms should continue to increase in coverage through early afternoon, initially near the front across Arkansas northeastward into western portions of Tennessee/Kentucky. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support some hail potential, especially the first part of the day, but the tendency for storm clustering will otherwise limit this overall potential, as well as limiting prospects for more consequential hail magnitudes. As the boundary layer warms this afternoon, the potential for initially semi-discrete supercells will increase along with related damaging wind risk as well as tornado potential, which will persist through the afternoon/evening even with a quasi-linear convective mode. As warm-sector inhibition further weakens later this afternoon, additional deepening convection may develop within weak pre-frontal convergence/confluence regime, mainly across Mississippi into Alabama, with this development eventually merging with or taking over as the main convective band this evening. Similarly, pre-frontal confluence may support isolated supercellular development along the Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle vicinity through late night hours/early Sunday, within a somewhat separate regime capable of a few severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESEE...AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, scattered large hail and areas of damaging winds are expected through the afternoon into the evening from portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Lower MS Valley into much of TN and southern KY... Tornado probabilities have been increased within an Enhanced Risk for the unfolding tornado situation over western into Middle TN and far southern KY, and extending into northern MS. Cells have remained discrete and are currently within a developing instability plume, adjacent to an area of enhanced low-level shear over Middle TN, southern KY and northern MS. The combination of favorable storm mode, and fully-effective 0-1 SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 will pose a damaging tornado risk through the late afternoon. The greatest threat area may remain relatively concentrated due to the cooler air mass to the east, but an isolated strong tornado or two is possible. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2305. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023/ ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and a positive-tilt trough over the southern High Plains. Increasing warm-sector moisture (generally lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, along with considerable deep-layer/low-level shear, will be favorable factors for a long-duration severe risk through the afternoon into tonight. However, the likelihood of a complex/mixed quasi-linear convective mode casts uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe risk, particularly regarding a supercell-related sustained/focused tornado risk. It is also noted that some guidance suggests that 1-3km AGL winds may somewhat weaken by late afternoon/early evening within the warm sector, while noting SRH will still remain favorable for rotating/severe storms. Storms should continue to increase in coverage through early afternoon, initially near the front across Arkansas northeastward into western portions of Tennessee/Kentucky. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support some hail potential, especially the first part of the day, but the tendency for storm clustering will otherwise limit this overall potential, as well as limiting prospects for more consequential hail magnitudes. As the boundary layer warms this afternoon, the potential for initially semi-discrete supercells will increase along with related damaging wind risk as well as tornado potential, which will persist through the afternoon/evening even with a quasi-linear convective mode. As warm-sector inhibition further weakens later this afternoon, additional deepening convection may develop within weak pre-frontal convergence/confluence regime, mainly across Mississippi into Alabama, with this development eventually merging with or taking over as the main convective band this evening. Similarly, pre-frontal confluence may support isolated supercellular development along the Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle vicinity through late night hours/early Sunday, within a somewhat separate regime capable of a few severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESEE...AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, scattered large hail and areas of damaging winds are expected through the afternoon into the evening from portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Lower MS Valley into much of TN and southern KY... Tornado probabilities have been increased within an Enhanced Risk for the unfolding tornado situation over western into Middle TN and far southern KY, and extending into northern MS. Cells have remained discrete and are currently within a developing instability plume, adjacent to an area of enhanced low-level shear over Middle TN, southern KY and northern MS. The combination of favorable storm mode, and fully-effective 0-1 SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 will pose a damaging tornado risk through the late afternoon. The greatest threat area may remain relatively concentrated due to the cooler air mass to the east, but an isolated strong tornado or two is possible. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2305. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023/ ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and a positive-tilt trough over the southern High Plains. Increasing warm-sector moisture (generally lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, along with considerable deep-layer/low-level shear, will be favorable factors for a long-duration severe risk through the afternoon into tonight. However, the likelihood of a complex/mixed quasi-linear convective mode casts uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe risk, particularly regarding a supercell-related sustained/focused tornado risk. It is also noted that some guidance suggests that 1-3km AGL winds may somewhat weaken by late afternoon/early evening within the warm sector, while noting SRH will still remain favorable for rotating/severe storms. Storms should continue to increase in coverage through early afternoon, initially near the front across Arkansas northeastward into western portions of Tennessee/Kentucky. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support some hail potential, especially the first part of the day, but the tendency for storm clustering will otherwise limit this overall potential, as well as limiting prospects for more consequential hail magnitudes. As the boundary layer warms this afternoon, the potential for initially semi-discrete supercells will increase along with related damaging wind risk as well as tornado potential, which will persist through the afternoon/evening even with a quasi-linear convective mode. As warm-sector inhibition further weakens later this afternoon, additional deepening convection may develop within weak pre-frontal convergence/confluence regime, mainly across Mississippi into Alabama, with this development eventually merging with or taking over as the main convective band this evening. Similarly, pre-frontal confluence may support isolated supercellular development along the Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle vicinity through late night hours/early Sunday, within a somewhat separate regime capable of a few severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESEE...AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, scattered large hail and areas of damaging winds are expected through the afternoon into the evening from portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Lower MS Valley into much of TN and southern KY... Tornado probabilities have been increased within an Enhanced Risk for the unfolding tornado situation over western into Middle TN and far southern KY, and extending into northern MS. Cells have remained discrete and are currently within a developing instability plume, adjacent to an area of enhanced low-level shear over Middle TN, southern KY and northern MS. The combination of favorable storm mode, and fully-effective 0-1 SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 will pose a damaging tornado risk through the late afternoon. The greatest threat area may remain relatively concentrated due to the cooler air mass to the east, but an isolated strong tornado or two is possible. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2305. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023/ ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and a positive-tilt trough over the southern High Plains. Increasing warm-sector moisture (generally lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, along with considerable deep-layer/low-level shear, will be favorable factors for a long-duration severe risk through the afternoon into tonight. However, the likelihood of a complex/mixed quasi-linear convective mode casts uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe risk, particularly regarding a supercell-related sustained/focused tornado risk. It is also noted that some guidance suggests that 1-3km AGL winds may somewhat weaken by late afternoon/early evening within the warm sector, while noting SRH will still remain favorable for rotating/severe storms. Storms should continue to increase in coverage through early afternoon, initially near the front across Arkansas northeastward into western portions of Tennessee/Kentucky. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support some hail potential, especially the first part of the day, but the tendency for storm clustering will otherwise limit this overall potential, as well as limiting prospects for more consequential hail magnitudes. As the boundary layer warms this afternoon, the potential for initially semi-discrete supercells will increase along with related damaging wind risk as well as tornado potential, which will persist through the afternoon/evening even with a quasi-linear convective mode. As warm-sector inhibition further weakens later this afternoon, additional deepening convection may develop within weak pre-frontal convergence/confluence regime, mainly across Mississippi into Alabama, with this development eventually merging with or taking over as the main convective band this evening. Similarly, pre-frontal confluence may support isolated supercellular development along the Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle vicinity through late night hours/early Sunday, within a somewhat separate regime capable of a few severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESEE...AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, scattered large hail and areas of damaging winds are expected through the afternoon into the evening from portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Lower MS Valley into much of TN and southern KY... Tornado probabilities have been increased within an Enhanced Risk for the unfolding tornado situation over western into Middle TN and far southern KY, and extending into northern MS. Cells have remained discrete and are currently within a developing instability plume, adjacent to an area of enhanced low-level shear over Middle TN, southern KY and northern MS. The combination of favorable storm mode, and fully-effective 0-1 SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 will pose a damaging tornado risk through the late afternoon. The greatest threat area may remain relatively concentrated due to the cooler air mass to the east, but an isolated strong tornado or two is possible. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2305. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023/ ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and a positive-tilt trough over the southern High Plains. Increasing warm-sector moisture (generally lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, along with considerable deep-layer/low-level shear, will be favorable factors for a long-duration severe risk through the afternoon into tonight. However, the likelihood of a complex/mixed quasi-linear convective mode casts uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe risk, particularly regarding a supercell-related sustained/focused tornado risk. It is also noted that some guidance suggests that 1-3km AGL winds may somewhat weaken by late afternoon/early evening within the warm sector, while noting SRH will still remain favorable for rotating/severe storms. Storms should continue to increase in coverage through early afternoon, initially near the front across Arkansas northeastward into western portions of Tennessee/Kentucky. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support some hail potential, especially the first part of the day, but the tendency for storm clustering will otherwise limit this overall potential, as well as limiting prospects for more consequential hail magnitudes. As the boundary layer warms this afternoon, the potential for initially semi-discrete supercells will increase along with related damaging wind risk as well as tornado potential, which will persist through the afternoon/evening even with a quasi-linear convective mode. As warm-sector inhibition further weakens later this afternoon, additional deepening convection may develop within weak pre-frontal convergence/confluence regime, mainly across Mississippi into Alabama, with this development eventually merging with or taking over as the main convective band this evening. Similarly, pre-frontal confluence may support isolated supercellular development along the Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle vicinity through late night hours/early Sunday, within a somewhat separate regime capable of a few severe storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESEE...AND SMALL PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, scattered large hail and areas of damaging winds are expected through the afternoon into the evening from portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and middle Gulf Coast. ...Lower MS Valley into much of TN and southern KY... Tornado probabilities have been increased within an Enhanced Risk for the unfolding tornado situation over western into Middle TN and far southern KY, and extending into northern MS. Cells have remained discrete and are currently within a developing instability plume, adjacent to an area of enhanced low-level shear over Middle TN, southern KY and northern MS. The combination of favorable storm mode, and fully-effective 0-1 SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 will pose a damaging tornado risk through the late afternoon. The greatest threat area may remain relatively concentrated due to the cooler air mass to the east, but an isolated strong tornado or two is possible. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 2305. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023/ ...Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley... Region is being increasingly influenced by height falls but otherwise resides between larger scale influences of an upper trough over the Upper Midwest and a positive-tilt trough over the southern High Plains. Increasing warm-sector moisture (generally lower to some middle 60s F surface dewpoints) ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front, along with considerable deep-layer/low-level shear, will be favorable factors for a long-duration severe risk through the afternoon into tonight. However, the likelihood of a complex/mixed quasi-linear convective mode casts uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe risk, particularly regarding a supercell-related sustained/focused tornado risk. It is also noted that some guidance suggests that 1-3km AGL winds may somewhat weaken by late afternoon/early evening within the warm sector, while noting SRH will still remain favorable for rotating/severe storms. Storms should continue to increase in coverage through early afternoon, initially near the front across Arkansas northeastward into western portions of Tennessee/Kentucky. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support some hail potential, especially the first part of the day, but the tendency for storm clustering will otherwise limit this overall potential, as well as limiting prospects for more consequential hail magnitudes. As the boundary layer warms this afternoon, the potential for initially semi-discrete supercells will increase along with related damaging wind risk as well as tornado potential, which will persist through the afternoon/evening even with a quasi-linear convective mode. As warm-sector inhibition further weakens later this afternoon, additional deepening convection may develop within weak pre-frontal convergence/confluence regime, mainly across Mississippi into Alabama, with this development eventually merging with or taking over as the main convective band this evening. Similarly, pre-frontal confluence may support isolated supercellular development along the Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle vicinity through late night hours/early Sunday, within a somewhat separate regime capable of a few severe storms. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Dec 9 19:11:12 UTC 2023.

WW 0714 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S JBR TO 40 ENE DYR TO 35 W HOP TO 40 NNW HOP TO 20 SW OWB. ..SQUITIERI..12/09/23 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...LMK...PAH...JAN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-011-013-025-035-039-041-043-069-077-079-095-103-107-123- 092040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN CLEVELAND CRITTENDEN DALLAS DESHA DREW JEFFERSON LEE LINCOLN MONROE OUACHITA PHILLIPS ST. FRANCIS KYC003-009-031-047-061-085-087-093-099-107-123-141-169-171-177- 183-213-219-221-227-092040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN BUTLER CHRISTIAN EDMONSON GRAYSON GREEN HARDIN HART HOPKINS LARUE LOGAN METCALFE MONROE MUHLENBERG OHIO SIMPSON TODD Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced for portions of coastal southern CA for Sunday. Latest observations show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions ongoing within the coastal ranges. Recent deterministic solutions indicate that the regional pressure gradient driving these winds will persist well into Sunday morning and perhaps into Sunday afternoon. This idea is supported by ensemble guidance, which has increased confidence in multiple hours of at least elevated fire weather conditions Sunday, warranting a risk area. Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue through the Southeast before lifting into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The surface high in the West will move into the southern Plains and Gulf of Mexico. A belt of strong mid-level northwesterly winds will remain in the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing may occur in the southern/central High Plains as a result. ...Southern California... Offshore pressure gradients will continue to diminish. The strongest winds will again be early in the day. RH recovery during Saturday night may only be modest. Though some elevated fire weather may occur early in the period, diminishing coverage and intensity of winds, a slight offset of the lowest RH with the strongest winds, and winds becoming more confined to the terrain where fuels are less receptive should keep the bulk of fire weather concerns localized. ...Southern High Plains... As the surface high shifts east and a weak lee trough develops, some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible in parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. With both winds and RH being marginal, fire weather concerns that exist should remain rather localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced for portions of coastal southern CA for Sunday. Latest observations show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions ongoing within the coastal ranges. Recent deterministic solutions indicate that the regional pressure gradient driving these winds will persist well into Sunday morning and perhaps into Sunday afternoon. This idea is supported by ensemble guidance, which has increased confidence in multiple hours of at least elevated fire weather conditions Sunday, warranting a risk area. Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue through the Southeast before lifting into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The surface high in the West will move into the southern Plains and Gulf of Mexico. A belt of strong mid-level northwesterly winds will remain in the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing may occur in the southern/central High Plains as a result. ...Southern California... Offshore pressure gradients will continue to diminish. The strongest winds will again be early in the day. RH recovery during Saturday night may only be modest. Though some elevated fire weather may occur early in the period, diminishing coverage and intensity of winds, a slight offset of the lowest RH with the strongest winds, and winds becoming more confined to the terrain where fuels are less receptive should keep the bulk of fire weather concerns localized. ...Southern High Plains... As the surface high shifts east and a weak lee trough develops, some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible in parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. With both winds and RH being marginal, fire weather concerns that exist should remain rather localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced for portions of coastal southern CA for Sunday. Latest observations show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions ongoing within the coastal ranges. Recent deterministic solutions indicate that the regional pressure gradient driving these winds will persist well into Sunday morning and perhaps into Sunday afternoon. This idea is supported by ensemble guidance, which has increased confidence in multiple hours of at least elevated fire weather conditions Sunday, warranting a risk area. Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue through the Southeast before lifting into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The surface high in the West will move into the southern Plains and Gulf of Mexico. A belt of strong mid-level northwesterly winds will remain in the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing may occur in the southern/central High Plains as a result. ...Southern California... Offshore pressure gradients will continue to diminish. The strongest winds will again be early in the day. RH recovery during Saturday night may only be modest. Though some elevated fire weather may occur early in the period, diminishing coverage and intensity of winds, a slight offset of the lowest RH with the strongest winds, and winds becoming more confined to the terrain where fuels are less receptive should keep the bulk of fire weather concerns localized. ...Southern High Plains... As the surface high shifts east and a weak lee trough develops, some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible in parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. With both winds and RH being marginal, fire weather concerns that exist should remain rather localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more