Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced for portions of coastal southern CA for Sunday. Latest observations show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions ongoing within the coastal ranges. Recent deterministic solutions indicate that the regional pressure gradient driving these winds will persist well into Sunday morning and perhaps into Sunday afternoon. This idea is supported by ensemble guidance, which has increased confidence in multiple hours of at least elevated fire weather conditions Sunday, warranting a risk area. Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue through the Southeast before lifting into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The surface high in the West will move into the southern Plains and Gulf of Mexico. A belt of strong mid-level northwesterly winds will remain in the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing may occur in the southern/central High Plains as a result. ...Southern California... Offshore pressure gradients will continue to diminish. The strongest winds will again be early in the day. RH recovery during Saturday night may only be modest. Though some elevated fire weather may occur early in the period, diminishing coverage and intensity of winds, a slight offset of the lowest RH with the strongest winds, and winds becoming more confined to the terrain where fuels are less receptive should keep the bulk of fire weather concerns localized. ...Southern High Plains... As the surface high shifts east and a weak lee trough develops, some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible in parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. With both winds and RH being marginal, fire weather concerns that exist should remain rather localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced for portions of coastal southern CA for Sunday. Latest observations show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions ongoing within the coastal ranges. Recent deterministic solutions indicate that the regional pressure gradient driving these winds will persist well into Sunday morning and perhaps into Sunday afternoon. This idea is supported by ensemble guidance, which has increased confidence in multiple hours of at least elevated fire weather conditions Sunday, warranting a risk area. Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue through the Southeast before lifting into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The surface high in the West will move into the southern Plains and Gulf of Mexico. A belt of strong mid-level northwesterly winds will remain in the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing may occur in the southern/central High Plains as a result. ...Southern California... Offshore pressure gradients will continue to diminish. The strongest winds will again be early in the day. RH recovery during Saturday night may only be modest. Though some elevated fire weather may occur early in the period, diminishing coverage and intensity of winds, a slight offset of the lowest RH with the strongest winds, and winds becoming more confined to the terrain where fuels are less receptive should keep the bulk of fire weather concerns localized. ...Southern High Plains... As the surface high shifts east and a weak lee trough develops, some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible in parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. With both winds and RH being marginal, fire weather concerns that exist should remain rather localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced for portions of coastal southern CA for Sunday. Latest observations show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions ongoing within the coastal ranges. Recent deterministic solutions indicate that the regional pressure gradient driving these winds will persist well into Sunday morning and perhaps into Sunday afternoon. This idea is supported by ensemble guidance, which has increased confidence in multiple hours of at least elevated fire weather conditions Sunday, warranting a risk area. Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue through the Southeast before lifting into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The surface high in the West will move into the southern Plains and Gulf of Mexico. A belt of strong mid-level northwesterly winds will remain in the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing may occur in the southern/central High Plains as a result. ...Southern California... Offshore pressure gradients will continue to diminish. The strongest winds will again be early in the day. RH recovery during Saturday night may only be modest. Though some elevated fire weather may occur early in the period, diminishing coverage and intensity of winds, a slight offset of the lowest RH with the strongest winds, and winds becoming more confined to the terrain where fuels are less receptive should keep the bulk of fire weather concerns localized. ...Southern High Plains... As the surface high shifts east and a weak lee trough develops, some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible in parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. With both winds and RH being marginal, fire weather concerns that exist should remain rather localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced for portions of coastal southern CA for Sunday. Latest observations show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions ongoing within the coastal ranges. Recent deterministic solutions indicate that the regional pressure gradient driving these winds will persist well into Sunday morning and perhaps into Sunday afternoon. This idea is supported by ensemble guidance, which has increased confidence in multiple hours of at least elevated fire weather conditions Sunday, warranting a risk area. Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue through the Southeast before lifting into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The surface high in the West will move into the southern Plains and Gulf of Mexico. A belt of strong mid-level northwesterly winds will remain in the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing may occur in the southern/central High Plains as a result. ...Southern California... Offshore pressure gradients will continue to diminish. The strongest winds will again be early in the day. RH recovery during Saturday night may only be modest. Though some elevated fire weather may occur early in the period, diminishing coverage and intensity of winds, a slight offset of the lowest RH with the strongest winds, and winds becoming more confined to the terrain where fuels are less receptive should keep the bulk of fire weather concerns localized. ...Southern High Plains... As the surface high shifts east and a weak lee trough develops, some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible in parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. With both winds and RH being marginal, fire weather concerns that exist should remain rather localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced for portions of coastal southern CA for Sunday. Latest observations show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions ongoing within the coastal ranges. Recent deterministic solutions indicate that the regional pressure gradient driving these winds will persist well into Sunday morning and perhaps into Sunday afternoon. This idea is supported by ensemble guidance, which has increased confidence in multiple hours of at least elevated fire weather conditions Sunday, warranting a risk area. Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue through the Southeast before lifting into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The surface high in the West will move into the southern Plains and Gulf of Mexico. A belt of strong mid-level northwesterly winds will remain in the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing may occur in the southern/central High Plains as a result. ...Southern California... Offshore pressure gradients will continue to diminish. The strongest winds will again be early in the day. RH recovery during Saturday night may only be modest. Though some elevated fire weather may occur early in the period, diminishing coverage and intensity of winds, a slight offset of the lowest RH with the strongest winds, and winds becoming more confined to the terrain where fuels are less receptive should keep the bulk of fire weather concerns localized. ...Southern High Plains... As the surface high shifts east and a weak lee trough develops, some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible in parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. With both winds and RH being marginal, fire weather concerns that exist should remain rather localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced for portions of coastal southern CA for Sunday. Latest observations show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions ongoing within the coastal ranges. Recent deterministic solutions indicate that the regional pressure gradient driving these winds will persist well into Sunday morning and perhaps into Sunday afternoon. This idea is supported by ensemble guidance, which has increased confidence in multiple hours of at least elevated fire weather conditions Sunday, warranting a risk area. Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue through the Southeast before lifting into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The surface high in the West will move into the southern Plains and Gulf of Mexico. A belt of strong mid-level northwesterly winds will remain in the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing may occur in the southern/central High Plains as a result. ...Southern California... Offshore pressure gradients will continue to diminish. The strongest winds will again be early in the day. RH recovery during Saturday night may only be modest. Though some elevated fire weather may occur early in the period, diminishing coverage and intensity of winds, a slight offset of the lowest RH with the strongest winds, and winds becoming more confined to the terrain where fuels are less receptive should keep the bulk of fire weather concerns localized. ...Southern High Plains... As the surface high shifts east and a weak lee trough develops, some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible in parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. With both winds and RH being marginal, fire weather concerns that exist should remain rather localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced for portions of coastal southern CA for Sunday. Latest observations show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions ongoing within the coastal ranges. Recent deterministic solutions indicate that the regional pressure gradient driving these winds will persist well into Sunday morning and perhaps into Sunday afternoon. This idea is supported by ensemble guidance, which has increased confidence in multiple hours of at least elevated fire weather conditions Sunday, warranting a risk area. Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue through the Southeast before lifting into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The surface high in the West will move into the southern Plains and Gulf of Mexico. A belt of strong mid-level northwesterly winds will remain in the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing may occur in the southern/central High Plains as a result. ...Southern California... Offshore pressure gradients will continue to diminish. The strongest winds will again be early in the day. RH recovery during Saturday night may only be modest. Though some elevated fire weather may occur early in the period, diminishing coverage and intensity of winds, a slight offset of the lowest RH with the strongest winds, and winds becoming more confined to the terrain where fuels are less receptive should keep the bulk of fire weather concerns localized. ...Southern High Plains... As the surface high shifts east and a weak lee trough develops, some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible in parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. With both winds and RH being marginal, fire weather concerns that exist should remain rather localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced for portions of coastal southern CA for Sunday. Latest observations show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions ongoing within the coastal ranges. Recent deterministic solutions indicate that the regional pressure gradient driving these winds will persist well into Sunday morning and perhaps into Sunday afternoon. This idea is supported by ensemble guidance, which has increased confidence in multiple hours of at least elevated fire weather conditions Sunday, warranting a risk area. Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue through the Southeast before lifting into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The surface high in the West will move into the southern Plains and Gulf of Mexico. A belt of strong mid-level northwesterly winds will remain in the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing may occur in the southern/central High Plains as a result. ...Southern California... Offshore pressure gradients will continue to diminish. The strongest winds will again be early in the day. RH recovery during Saturday night may only be modest. Though some elevated fire weather may occur early in the period, diminishing coverage and intensity of winds, a slight offset of the lowest RH with the strongest winds, and winds becoming more confined to the terrain where fuels are less receptive should keep the bulk of fire weather concerns localized. ...Southern High Plains... As the surface high shifts east and a weak lee trough develops, some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible in parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. With both winds and RH being marginal, fire weather concerns that exist should remain rather localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced for portions of coastal southern CA for Sunday. Latest observations show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions ongoing within the coastal ranges. Recent deterministic solutions indicate that the regional pressure gradient driving these winds will persist well into Sunday morning and perhaps into Sunday afternoon. This idea is supported by ensemble guidance, which has increased confidence in multiple hours of at least elevated fire weather conditions Sunday, warranting a risk area. Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue through the Southeast before lifting into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The surface high in the West will move into the southern Plains and Gulf of Mexico. A belt of strong mid-level northwesterly winds will remain in the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing may occur in the southern/central High Plains as a result. ...Southern California... Offshore pressure gradients will continue to diminish. The strongest winds will again be early in the day. RH recovery during Saturday night may only be modest. Though some elevated fire weather may occur early in the period, diminishing coverage and intensity of winds, a slight offset of the lowest RH with the strongest winds, and winds becoming more confined to the terrain where fuels are less receptive should keep the bulk of fire weather concerns localized. ...Southern High Plains... As the surface high shifts east and a weak lee trough develops, some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible in parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. With both winds and RH being marginal, fire weather concerns that exist should remain rather localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced for portions of coastal southern CA for Sunday. Latest observations show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions ongoing within the coastal ranges. Recent deterministic solutions indicate that the regional pressure gradient driving these winds will persist well into Sunday morning and perhaps into Sunday afternoon. This idea is supported by ensemble guidance, which has increased confidence in multiple hours of at least elevated fire weather conditions Sunday, warranting a risk area. Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue through the Southeast before lifting into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The surface high in the West will move into the southern Plains and Gulf of Mexico. A belt of strong mid-level northwesterly winds will remain in the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing may occur in the southern/central High Plains as a result. ...Southern California... Offshore pressure gradients will continue to diminish. The strongest winds will again be early in the day. RH recovery during Saturday night may only be modest. Though some elevated fire weather may occur early in the period, diminishing coverage and intensity of winds, a slight offset of the lowest RH with the strongest winds, and winds becoming more confined to the terrain where fuels are less receptive should keep the bulk of fire weather concerns localized. ...Southern High Plains... As the surface high shifts east and a weak lee trough develops, some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible in parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. With both winds and RH being marginal, fire weather concerns that exist should remain rather localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z An Elevated risk area is introduced for portions of coastal southern CA for Sunday. Latest observations show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions ongoing within the coastal ranges. Recent deterministic solutions indicate that the regional pressure gradient driving these winds will persist well into Sunday morning and perhaps into Sunday afternoon. This idea is supported by ensemble guidance, which has increased confidence in multiple hours of at least elevated fire weather conditions Sunday, warranting a risk area. Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CST Fri Dec 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue through the Southeast before lifting into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. The surface high in the West will move into the southern Plains and Gulf of Mexico. A belt of strong mid-level northwesterly winds will remain in the central Rockies. Modest lee troughing may occur in the southern/central High Plains as a result. ...Southern California... Offshore pressure gradients will continue to diminish. The strongest winds will again be early in the day. RH recovery during Saturday night may only be modest. Though some elevated fire weather may occur early in the period, diminishing coverage and intensity of winds, a slight offset of the lowest RH with the strongest winds, and winds becoming more confined to the terrain where fuels are less receptive should keep the bulk of fire weather concerns localized. ...Southern High Plains... As the surface high shifts east and a weak lee trough develops, some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible in parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. With both winds and RH being marginal, fire weather concerns that exist should remain rather localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2304 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN AR...WESTERN KY...WESTERN/MIDDLE TN...NORTHERN MS...NORTHWEST AL
Mesoscale Discussion 2304 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Areas affected...Southern/eastern AR...western KY...western/middle TN...northern MS...northwest AL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 091650Z - 091845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase with time, with all severe hazards becoming possible by this afternoon. Eventual watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms from northeast AR into southwest KY has intensified somewhat over the last 1-2 hours. This convection is likely somewhat elevated, given its relatively fast motion to the northeast and the currently stable appearance boundary-layer clouds on visible satellite across the warm sector to the immediate south. However, MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, relatively cold temperatures aloft, and favorable deep-layer shear could support an isolated short-term hail threat with the strongest elevated storms. Gradual diurnal heating of an increasingly moist warm sector will continue to remove remaining MLCINH through the morning, with an increase in surface-based storm development expected by midday to early afternoon. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg (greater with southwest extent) and effective shear of 50-60 kt will support organized convection. The environment will support the development and sustenance of supercells, though deep-layer flow largely parallel to the approaching cold front may result in a complex storm mode, with both linear and embedded cellular elements. There will be a tendency for stronger low-level flow to gradually weaken from the southwest with time, but low-level shear/SRH will remain sufficient to support a tornado threat with any sustained supercells later this afternoon. Otherwise, large hail will remain a threat, and damaging-wind potential will become an increasing concern as storm coverage increases. Eventual watch issuance is likely by early afternoon, and perhaps sooner if ongoing attempts at initiation over central AR begin to mature late this morning. ..Dean/Guyer.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... SHV... LAT...LON 33109228 33369292 33739318 34019295 35099107 36788831 37248713 37258625 36838569 36198571 35438616 34358762 33928845 33358968 33299019 33169083 33139148 33109228 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper trough will move from the MS Valley toward the East Coast on Sunday, with a primary embedded speed max ejecting quickly from the northern Gulf Coast toward the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will push east across the Appalachians during the afternoon, with the strongest frontal surge across the Southeast late in the day and into the evening. Ahead of the cold front, a surface trough will gradually deepen from MD southwestward to the FL Panhandle, with 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow aiding moistening. Front-parallel winds aloft as well as modest destabilization will likely lead to scattered storms, with a few becoming severe across the region. ...Parts of the Southeast and East Coast... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing along the front from southern AL and the western FL Panhandle across northern GA and the Appalachians Sunday morning, with substantial low clouds across much of the region. Lack of appreciable heating will generally reduce available instability, but sufficient boundary layer moisture with low to perhaps mid 60s F dewpoints will result in a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the cold front. The strongest cooling aloft will occur behind the boundary, as the upper trough will be quite amplified with meridional flow aloft. Storms across the Southeast may eventually become linear as the cold front accelerates, and this may yield a few damaging gusts. Low-level shear may also favor isolated supercells with brief tornado threat, with the main mitigating factor being lack of heating. Any pockets of strong heating that do develop could yield mesocale areas of higher potential, and the southeastern area will be monitored going into the Day 1 period. Farther north into the Mid Atlantic, boundary layer stability will likely reduce severe potential to Marginal Risk levels due to the combination of weak lift/convergence combined with the cloudy/saturated profiles. Still, strengthening mean winds in the lowest few km may support strong to perhaps damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper trough will move from the MS Valley toward the East Coast on Sunday, with a primary embedded speed max ejecting quickly from the northern Gulf Coast toward the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will push east across the Appalachians during the afternoon, with the strongest frontal surge across the Southeast late in the day and into the evening. Ahead of the cold front, a surface trough will gradually deepen from MD southwestward to the FL Panhandle, with 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow aiding moistening. Front-parallel winds aloft as well as modest destabilization will likely lead to scattered storms, with a few becoming severe across the region. ...Parts of the Southeast and East Coast... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing along the front from southern AL and the western FL Panhandle across northern GA and the Appalachians Sunday morning, with substantial low clouds across much of the region. Lack of appreciable heating will generally reduce available instability, but sufficient boundary layer moisture with low to perhaps mid 60s F dewpoints will result in a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the cold front. The strongest cooling aloft will occur behind the boundary, as the upper trough will be quite amplified with meridional flow aloft. Storms across the Southeast may eventually become linear as the cold front accelerates, and this may yield a few damaging gusts. Low-level shear may also favor isolated supercells with brief tornado threat, with the main mitigating factor being lack of heating. Any pockets of strong heating that do develop could yield mesocale areas of higher potential, and the southeastern area will be monitored going into the Day 1 period. Farther north into the Mid Atlantic, boundary layer stability will likely reduce severe potential to Marginal Risk levels due to the combination of weak lift/convergence combined with the cloudy/saturated profiles. Still, strengthening mean winds in the lowest few km may support strong to perhaps damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper trough will move from the MS Valley toward the East Coast on Sunday, with a primary embedded speed max ejecting quickly from the northern Gulf Coast toward the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will push east across the Appalachians during the afternoon, with the strongest frontal surge across the Southeast late in the day and into the evening. Ahead of the cold front, a surface trough will gradually deepen from MD southwestward to the FL Panhandle, with 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow aiding moistening. Front-parallel winds aloft as well as modest destabilization will likely lead to scattered storms, with a few becoming severe across the region. ...Parts of the Southeast and East Coast... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing along the front from southern AL and the western FL Panhandle across northern GA and the Appalachians Sunday morning, with substantial low clouds across much of the region. Lack of appreciable heating will generally reduce available instability, but sufficient boundary layer moisture with low to perhaps mid 60s F dewpoints will result in a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the cold front. The strongest cooling aloft will occur behind the boundary, as the upper trough will be quite amplified with meridional flow aloft. Storms across the Southeast may eventually become linear as the cold front accelerates, and this may yield a few damaging gusts. Low-level shear may also favor isolated supercells with brief tornado threat, with the main mitigating factor being lack of heating. Any pockets of strong heating that do develop could yield mesocale areas of higher potential, and the southeastern area will be monitored going into the Day 1 period. Farther north into the Mid Atlantic, boundary layer stability will likely reduce severe potential to Marginal Risk levels due to the combination of weak lift/convergence combined with the cloudy/saturated profiles. Still, strengthening mean winds in the lowest few km may support strong to perhaps damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper trough will move from the MS Valley toward the East Coast on Sunday, with a primary embedded speed max ejecting quickly from the northern Gulf Coast toward the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will push east across the Appalachians during the afternoon, with the strongest frontal surge across the Southeast late in the day and into the evening. Ahead of the cold front, a surface trough will gradually deepen from MD southwestward to the FL Panhandle, with 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow aiding moistening. Front-parallel winds aloft as well as modest destabilization will likely lead to scattered storms, with a few becoming severe across the region. ...Parts of the Southeast and East Coast... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing along the front from southern AL and the western FL Panhandle across northern GA and the Appalachians Sunday morning, with substantial low clouds across much of the region. Lack of appreciable heating will generally reduce available instability, but sufficient boundary layer moisture with low to perhaps mid 60s F dewpoints will result in a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the cold front. The strongest cooling aloft will occur behind the boundary, as the upper trough will be quite amplified with meridional flow aloft. Storms across the Southeast may eventually become linear as the cold front accelerates, and this may yield a few damaging gusts. Low-level shear may also favor isolated supercells with brief tornado threat, with the main mitigating factor being lack of heating. Any pockets of strong heating that do develop could yield mesocale areas of higher potential, and the southeastern area will be monitored going into the Day 1 period. Farther north into the Mid Atlantic, boundary layer stability will likely reduce severe potential to Marginal Risk levels due to the combination of weak lift/convergence combined with the cloudy/saturated profiles. Still, strengthening mean winds in the lowest few km may support strong to perhaps damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper trough will move from the MS Valley toward the East Coast on Sunday, with a primary embedded speed max ejecting quickly from the northern Gulf Coast toward the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will push east across the Appalachians during the afternoon, with the strongest frontal surge across the Southeast late in the day and into the evening. Ahead of the cold front, a surface trough will gradually deepen from MD southwestward to the FL Panhandle, with 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow aiding moistening. Front-parallel winds aloft as well as modest destabilization will likely lead to scattered storms, with a few becoming severe across the region. ...Parts of the Southeast and East Coast... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing along the front from southern AL and the western FL Panhandle across northern GA and the Appalachians Sunday morning, with substantial low clouds across much of the region. Lack of appreciable heating will generally reduce available instability, but sufficient boundary layer moisture with low to perhaps mid 60s F dewpoints will result in a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the cold front. The strongest cooling aloft will occur behind the boundary, as the upper trough will be quite amplified with meridional flow aloft. Storms across the Southeast may eventually become linear as the cold front accelerates, and this may yield a few damaging gusts. Low-level shear may also favor isolated supercells with brief tornado threat, with the main mitigating factor being lack of heating. Any pockets of strong heating that do develop could yield mesocale areas of higher potential, and the southeastern area will be monitored going into the Day 1 period. Farther north into the Mid Atlantic, boundary layer stability will likely reduce severe potential to Marginal Risk levels due to the combination of weak lift/convergence combined with the cloudy/saturated profiles. Still, strengthening mean winds in the lowest few km may support strong to perhaps damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper trough will move from the MS Valley toward the East Coast on Sunday, with a primary embedded speed max ejecting quickly from the northern Gulf Coast toward the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will push east across the Appalachians during the afternoon, with the strongest frontal surge across the Southeast late in the day and into the evening. Ahead of the cold front, a surface trough will gradually deepen from MD southwestward to the FL Panhandle, with 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow aiding moistening. Front-parallel winds aloft as well as modest destabilization will likely lead to scattered storms, with a few becoming severe across the region. ...Parts of the Southeast and East Coast... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing along the front from southern AL and the western FL Panhandle across northern GA and the Appalachians Sunday morning, with substantial low clouds across much of the region. Lack of appreciable heating will generally reduce available instability, but sufficient boundary layer moisture with low to perhaps mid 60s F dewpoints will result in a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the cold front. The strongest cooling aloft will occur behind the boundary, as the upper trough will be quite amplified with meridional flow aloft. Storms across the Southeast may eventually become linear as the cold front accelerates, and this may yield a few damaging gusts. Low-level shear may also favor isolated supercells with brief tornado threat, with the main mitigating factor being lack of heating. Any pockets of strong heating that do develop could yield mesocale areas of higher potential, and the southeastern area will be monitored going into the Day 1 period. Farther north into the Mid Atlantic, boundary layer stability will likely reduce severe potential to Marginal Risk levels due to the combination of weak lift/convergence combined with the cloudy/saturated profiles. Still, strengthening mean winds in the lowest few km may support strong to perhaps damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper trough will move from the MS Valley toward the East Coast on Sunday, with a primary embedded speed max ejecting quickly from the northern Gulf Coast toward the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will push east across the Appalachians during the afternoon, with the strongest frontal surge across the Southeast late in the day and into the evening. Ahead of the cold front, a surface trough will gradually deepen from MD southwestward to the FL Panhandle, with 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow aiding moistening. Front-parallel winds aloft as well as modest destabilization will likely lead to scattered storms, with a few becoming severe across the region. ...Parts of the Southeast and East Coast... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing along the front from southern AL and the western FL Panhandle across northern GA and the Appalachians Sunday morning, with substantial low clouds across much of the region. Lack of appreciable heating will generally reduce available instability, but sufficient boundary layer moisture with low to perhaps mid 60s F dewpoints will result in a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the cold front. The strongest cooling aloft will occur behind the boundary, as the upper trough will be quite amplified with meridional flow aloft. Storms across the Southeast may eventually become linear as the cold front accelerates, and this may yield a few damaging gusts. Low-level shear may also favor isolated supercells with brief tornado threat, with the main mitigating factor being lack of heating. Any pockets of strong heating that do develop could yield mesocale areas of higher potential, and the southeastern area will be monitored going into the Day 1 period. Farther north into the Mid Atlantic, boundary layer stability will likely reduce severe potential to Marginal Risk levels due to the combination of weak lift/convergence combined with the cloudy/saturated profiles. Still, strengthening mean winds in the lowest few km may support strong to perhaps damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday evening across parts of the Southeast States, mainly in the form of sporadic damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper trough will move from the MS Valley toward the East Coast on Sunday, with a primary embedded speed max ejecting quickly from the northern Gulf Coast toward the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front will push east across the Appalachians during the afternoon, with the strongest frontal surge across the Southeast late in the day and into the evening. Ahead of the cold front, a surface trough will gradually deepen from MD southwestward to the FL Panhandle, with 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow aiding moistening. Front-parallel winds aloft as well as modest destabilization will likely lead to scattered storms, with a few becoming severe across the region. ...Parts of the Southeast and East Coast... Scattered storms are likely to be ongoing along the front from southern AL and the western FL Panhandle across northern GA and the Appalachians Sunday morning, with substantial low clouds across much of the region. Lack of appreciable heating will generally reduce available instability, but sufficient boundary layer moisture with low to perhaps mid 60s F dewpoints will result in a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the cold front. The strongest cooling aloft will occur behind the boundary, as the upper trough will be quite amplified with meridional flow aloft. Storms across the Southeast may eventually become linear as the cold front accelerates, and this may yield a few damaging gusts. Low-level shear may also favor isolated supercells with brief tornado threat, with the main mitigating factor being lack of heating. Any pockets of strong heating that do develop could yield mesocale areas of higher potential, and the southeastern area will be monitored going into the Day 1 period. Farther north into the Mid Atlantic, boundary layer stability will likely reduce severe potential to Marginal Risk levels due to the combination of weak lift/convergence combined with the cloudy/saturated profiles. Still, strengthening mean winds in the lowest few km may support strong to perhaps damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 12/09/2023 Read more