Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today. Other than just ahead of the trough, surface high pressure will be present across the CONUS. Fire weather concerns should remain minimal across most areas due to cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation. With high pressure remaining in the West, offshore flow will continue in southern California. Given only a modest offshore gradient and little in the way of upper-level wind support, any elevated fire weather conditions will be localized. ..Wendt.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today. Other than just ahead of the trough, surface high pressure will be present across the CONUS. Fire weather concerns should remain minimal across most areas due to cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation. With high pressure remaining in the West, offshore flow will continue in southern California. Given only a modest offshore gradient and little in the way of upper-level wind support, any elevated fire weather conditions will be localized. ..Wendt.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Central to east TX... Pronounced forcing for ascent ahead of a slow-moving shortwave trough over the southern Great Plains will support a swath of elevated convection likely persisting through the period. This activity should be centered on north to west-central TX at 12Z Friday and gradually progress east-southeast into the Sabine Valley to Mid/Upper TX Gulf Coast by early Saturday. Elevated parcels should consist of minimal to meager buoyancy as mid-level lapse rates become largely moist adiabatic in the southeast quadrant of the trough. Embedded thunderstorm coverage should remain isolated, but may increase Friday night across southeast TX where low-level moisture from the northwest Gulf will be greater. Across far south FL and the Keys, isolated low-topped convection will be possible amid scant surface-based instability. Consensus of guidance suggests that mid to upper-level lapse rates will be weak and potential for charge separation is slim. ..Grams.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Central to east TX... Pronounced forcing for ascent ahead of a slow-moving shortwave trough over the southern Great Plains will support a swath of elevated convection likely persisting through the period. This activity should be centered on north to west-central TX at 12Z Friday and gradually progress east-southeast into the Sabine Valley to Mid/Upper TX Gulf Coast by early Saturday. Elevated parcels should consist of minimal to meager buoyancy as mid-level lapse rates become largely moist adiabatic in the southeast quadrant of the trough. Embedded thunderstorm coverage should remain isolated, but may increase Friday night across southeast TX where low-level moisture from the northwest Gulf will be greater. Across far south FL and the Keys, isolated low-topped convection will be possible amid scant surface-based instability. Consensus of guidance suggests that mid to upper-level lapse rates will be weak and potential for charge separation is slim. ..Grams.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Central to east TX... Pronounced forcing for ascent ahead of a slow-moving shortwave trough over the southern Great Plains will support a swath of elevated convection likely persisting through the period. This activity should be centered on north to west-central TX at 12Z Friday and gradually progress east-southeast into the Sabine Valley to Mid/Upper TX Gulf Coast by early Saturday. Elevated parcels should consist of minimal to meager buoyancy as mid-level lapse rates become largely moist adiabatic in the southeast quadrant of the trough. Embedded thunderstorm coverage should remain isolated, but may increase Friday night across southeast TX where low-level moisture from the northwest Gulf will be greater. Across far south FL and the Keys, isolated low-topped convection will be possible amid scant surface-based instability. Consensus of guidance suggests that mid to upper-level lapse rates will be weak and potential for charge separation is slim. ..Grams.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Central to east TX... Pronounced forcing for ascent ahead of a slow-moving shortwave trough over the southern Great Plains will support a swath of elevated convection likely persisting through the period. This activity should be centered on north to west-central TX at 12Z Friday and gradually progress east-southeast into the Sabine Valley to Mid/Upper TX Gulf Coast by early Saturday. Elevated parcels should consist of minimal to meager buoyancy as mid-level lapse rates become largely moist adiabatic in the southeast quadrant of the trough. Embedded thunderstorm coverage should remain isolated, but may increase Friday night across southeast TX where low-level moisture from the northwest Gulf will be greater. Across far south FL and the Keys, isolated low-topped convection will be possible amid scant surface-based instability. Consensus of guidance suggests that mid to upper-level lapse rates will be weak and potential for charge separation is slim. ..Grams.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Central to east TX... Pronounced forcing for ascent ahead of a slow-moving shortwave trough over the southern Great Plains will support a swath of elevated convection likely persisting through the period. This activity should be centered on north to west-central TX at 12Z Friday and gradually progress east-southeast into the Sabine Valley to Mid/Upper TX Gulf Coast by early Saturday. Elevated parcels should consist of minimal to meager buoyancy as mid-level lapse rates become largely moist adiabatic in the southeast quadrant of the trough. Embedded thunderstorm coverage should remain isolated, but may increase Friday night across southeast TX where low-level moisture from the northwest Gulf will be greater. Across far south FL and the Keys, isolated low-topped convection will be possible amid scant surface-based instability. Consensus of guidance suggests that mid to upper-level lapse rates will be weak and potential for charge separation is slim. ..Grams.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Central to east TX... Pronounced forcing for ascent ahead of a slow-moving shortwave trough over the southern Great Plains will support a swath of elevated convection likely persisting through the period. This activity should be centered on north to west-central TX at 12Z Friday and gradually progress east-southeast into the Sabine Valley to Mid/Upper TX Gulf Coast by early Saturday. Elevated parcels should consist of minimal to meager buoyancy as mid-level lapse rates become largely moist adiabatic in the southeast quadrant of the trough. Embedded thunderstorm coverage should remain isolated, but may increase Friday night across southeast TX where low-level moisture from the northwest Gulf will be greater. Across far south FL and the Keys, isolated low-topped convection will be possible amid scant surface-based instability. Consensus of guidance suggests that mid to upper-level lapse rates will be weak and potential for charge separation is slim. ..Grams.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move eastward across northern NM and into the TX Panhandle during the period. An associated cold pocket, featuring 500 mb temperatures in the -22 to -24 deg C range, will overspread areas from west to east across the I-40 corridor in NM and TX. Ascent via the disturbance and cold mid levels will support sporadic isolated thunderstorm activity. Relatively cool/stable low levels and limited instability will preclude strong thunderstorm development across the area centered on the southern High Plains today through tonight. Elsewhere, a 1040 mb surface high over the OH Valley/southern Appalachians will lead to tranquil conditions for much of the East/Southeast U.S. A few thunderstorms may occur over the FL Keys and near the beaches of South FL, as well as Deep South TX in the vicinity of a remnant frontal zone. ..Smith/Wendt.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move eastward across northern NM and into the TX Panhandle during the period. An associated cold pocket, featuring 500 mb temperatures in the -22 to -24 deg C range, will overspread areas from west to east across the I-40 corridor in NM and TX. Ascent via the disturbance and cold mid levels will support sporadic isolated thunderstorm activity. Relatively cool/stable low levels and limited instability will preclude strong thunderstorm development across the area centered on the southern High Plains today through tonight. Elsewhere, a 1040 mb surface high over the OH Valley/southern Appalachians will lead to tranquil conditions for much of the East/Southeast U.S. A few thunderstorms may occur over the FL Keys and near the beaches of South FL, as well as Deep South TX in the vicinity of a remnant frontal zone. ..Smith/Wendt.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move eastward across northern NM and into the TX Panhandle during the period. An associated cold pocket, featuring 500 mb temperatures in the -22 to -24 deg C range, will overspread areas from west to east across the I-40 corridor in NM and TX. Ascent via the disturbance and cold mid levels will support sporadic isolated thunderstorm activity. Relatively cool/stable low levels and limited instability will preclude strong thunderstorm development across the area centered on the southern High Plains today through tonight. Elsewhere, a 1040 mb surface high over the OH Valley/southern Appalachians will lead to tranquil conditions for much of the East/Southeast U.S. A few thunderstorms may occur over the FL Keys and near the beaches of South FL, as well as Deep South TX in the vicinity of a remnant frontal zone. ..Smith/Wendt.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move eastward across northern NM and into the TX Panhandle during the period. An associated cold pocket, featuring 500 mb temperatures in the -22 to -24 deg C range, will overspread areas from west to east across the I-40 corridor in NM and TX. Ascent via the disturbance and cold mid levels will support sporadic isolated thunderstorm activity. Relatively cool/stable low levels and limited instability will preclude strong thunderstorm development across the area centered on the southern High Plains today through tonight. Elsewhere, a 1040 mb surface high over the OH Valley/southern Appalachians will lead to tranquil conditions for much of the East/Southeast U.S. A few thunderstorms may occur over the FL Keys and near the beaches of South FL, as well as Deep South TX in the vicinity of a remnant frontal zone. ..Smith/Wendt.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move eastward across northern NM and into the TX Panhandle during the period. An associated cold pocket, featuring 500 mb temperatures in the -22 to -24 deg C range, will overspread areas from west to east across the I-40 corridor in NM and TX. Ascent via the disturbance and cold mid levels will support sporadic isolated thunderstorm activity. Relatively cool/stable low levels and limited instability will preclude strong thunderstorm development across the area centered on the southern High Plains today through tonight. Elsewhere, a 1040 mb surface high over the OH Valley/southern Appalachians will lead to tranquil conditions for much of the East/Southeast U.S. A few thunderstorms may occur over the FL Keys and near the beaches of South FL, as well as Deep South TX in the vicinity of a remnant frontal zone. ..Smith/Wendt.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move eastward across northern NM and into the TX Panhandle during the period. An associated cold pocket, featuring 500 mb temperatures in the -22 to -24 deg C range, will overspread areas from west to east across the I-40 corridor in NM and TX. Ascent via the disturbance and cold mid levels will support sporadic isolated thunderstorm activity. Relatively cool/stable low levels and limited instability will preclude strong thunderstorm development across the area centered on the southern High Plains today through tonight. Elsewhere, a 1040 mb surface high over the OH Valley/southern Appalachians will lead to tranquil conditions for much of the East/Southeast U.S. A few thunderstorms may occur over the FL Keys and near the beaches of South FL, as well as Deep South TX in the vicinity of a remnant frontal zone. ..Smith/Wendt.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move eastward across northern NM and into the TX Panhandle during the period. An associated cold pocket, featuring 500 mb temperatures in the -22 to -24 deg C range, will overspread areas from west to east across the I-40 corridor in NM and TX. Ascent via the disturbance and cold mid levels will support sporadic isolated thunderstorm activity. Relatively cool/stable low levels and limited instability will preclude strong thunderstorm development across the area centered on the southern High Plains today through tonight. Elsewhere, a 1040 mb surface high over the OH Valley/southern Appalachians will lead to tranquil conditions for much of the East/Southeast U.S. A few thunderstorms may occur over the FL Keys and near the beaches of South FL, as well as Deep South TX in the vicinity of a remnant frontal zone. ..Smith/Wendt.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a closed mid/upper-level low migrating slowly eastward over the Four Corners. Steepening lapse rates via mid-level cold-air advection and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low, will support widely spaced thunderstorm activity tonight over the Four Corners. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible over the southern High Plains within a persistent warm advection regime. ..Smith.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a closed mid/upper-level low migrating slowly eastward over the Four Corners. Steepening lapse rates via mid-level cold-air advection and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low, will support widely spaced thunderstorm activity tonight over the Four Corners. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible over the southern High Plains within a persistent warm advection regime. ..Smith.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a closed mid/upper-level low migrating slowly eastward over the Four Corners. Steepening lapse rates via mid-level cold-air advection and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low, will support widely spaced thunderstorm activity tonight over the Four Corners. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible over the southern High Plains within a persistent warm advection regime. ..Smith.. 12/14/2023 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Dec 13 21:59:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Wed Dec 13 21:59:02 UTC 2023.