Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Seasonably high heights associated with general large-scale mid-level ridging appear likely to prevail across much of the U.S. and Canada through this period, with the most pronounced mid-level height anomalies shifting east-southeastward into the Great Lakes region, in the wake of at least a pair of short wave troughs progressing off the Atlantic Seaboard. Within this regime, weak mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress east of the U.S. Rockies, with an embedded low migrating east-northeast/east of the southern Rockies through the Texas Panhandle or Texas South Plains vicinity by 12Z Friday. There remains substantive spread among the various model output concerning the track of the mid-level low, but appreciable surface cyclogenesis across the southern Great Plains is unlikely with initially entrenched surface ridging slow to weaken. Although models indicate that the more strongly supporting confluent mid-level flow will begin to shift east of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Thursday, expansive cold surface ridging (centered over the southern Appalachians) is forecast to generally be maintained across much of the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico into at least early Friday. Seasonably high moisture content likely will remain confined along and south of a remnant baroclinic zone, south of the Florida Straits into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This front (particularly across portions of the south central Gulf) may become a focus for increasing thunderstorm development Thursday through Thursday night, aided by forcing associated with a mid/upper short wave perturbation emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific. Otherwise, modest elevated moisture return, coupled with cooling further aloft associated with the mid-level low, probably will support continuing weak thunderstorm development across the southern Rockies into southern Great Plains vicinity into early Friday. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Seasonably high heights associated with general large-scale mid-level ridging appear likely to prevail across much of the U.S. and Canada through this period, with the most pronounced mid-level height anomalies shifting east-southeastward into the Great Lakes region, in the wake of at least a pair of short wave troughs progressing off the Atlantic Seaboard. Within this regime, weak mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress east of the U.S. Rockies, with an embedded low migrating east-northeast/east of the southern Rockies through the Texas Panhandle or Texas South Plains vicinity by 12Z Friday. There remains substantive spread among the various model output concerning the track of the mid-level low, but appreciable surface cyclogenesis across the southern Great Plains is unlikely with initially entrenched surface ridging slow to weaken. Although models indicate that the more strongly supporting confluent mid-level flow will begin to shift east of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Thursday, expansive cold surface ridging (centered over the southern Appalachians) is forecast to generally be maintained across much of the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico into at least early Friday. Seasonably high moisture content likely will remain confined along and south of a remnant baroclinic zone, south of the Florida Straits into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This front (particularly across portions of the south central Gulf) may become a focus for increasing thunderstorm development Thursday through Thursday night, aided by forcing associated with a mid/upper short wave perturbation emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific. Otherwise, modest elevated moisture return, coupled with cooling further aloft associated with the mid-level low, probably will support continuing weak thunderstorm development across the southern Rockies into southern Great Plains vicinity into early Friday. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Seasonably high heights associated with general large-scale mid-level ridging appear likely to prevail across much of the U.S. and Canada through this period, with the most pronounced mid-level height anomalies shifting east-southeastward into the Great Lakes region, in the wake of at least a pair of short wave troughs progressing off the Atlantic Seaboard. Within this regime, weak mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress east of the U.S. Rockies, with an embedded low migrating east-northeast/east of the southern Rockies through the Texas Panhandle or Texas South Plains vicinity by 12Z Friday. There remains substantive spread among the various model output concerning the track of the mid-level low, but appreciable surface cyclogenesis across the southern Great Plains is unlikely with initially entrenched surface ridging slow to weaken. Although models indicate that the more strongly supporting confluent mid-level flow will begin to shift east of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Thursday, expansive cold surface ridging (centered over the southern Appalachians) is forecast to generally be maintained across much of the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico into at least early Friday. Seasonably high moisture content likely will remain confined along and south of a remnant baroclinic zone, south of the Florida Straits into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This front (particularly across portions of the south central Gulf) may become a focus for increasing thunderstorm development Thursday through Thursday night, aided by forcing associated with a mid/upper short wave perturbation emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific. Otherwise, modest elevated moisture return, coupled with cooling further aloft associated with the mid-level low, probably will support continuing weak thunderstorm development across the southern Rockies into southern Great Plains vicinity into early Friday. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Seasonably high heights associated with general large-scale mid-level ridging appear likely to prevail across much of the U.S. and Canada through this period, with the most pronounced mid-level height anomalies shifting east-southeastward into the Great Lakes region, in the wake of at least a pair of short wave troughs progressing off the Atlantic Seaboard. Within this regime, weak mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress east of the U.S. Rockies, with an embedded low migrating east-northeast/east of the southern Rockies through the Texas Panhandle or Texas South Plains vicinity by 12Z Friday. There remains substantive spread among the various model output concerning the track of the mid-level low, but appreciable surface cyclogenesis across the southern Great Plains is unlikely with initially entrenched surface ridging slow to weaken. Although models indicate that the more strongly supporting confluent mid-level flow will begin to shift east of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Thursday, expansive cold surface ridging (centered over the southern Appalachians) is forecast to generally be maintained across much of the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico into at least early Friday. Seasonably high moisture content likely will remain confined along and south of a remnant baroclinic zone, south of the Florida Straits into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This front (particularly across portions of the south central Gulf) may become a focus for increasing thunderstorm development Thursday through Thursday night, aided by forcing associated with a mid/upper short wave perturbation emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific. Otherwise, modest elevated moisture return, coupled with cooling further aloft associated with the mid-level low, probably will support continuing weak thunderstorm development across the southern Rockies into southern Great Plains vicinity into early Friday. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Seasonably high heights associated with general large-scale mid-level ridging appear likely to prevail across much of the U.S. and Canada through this period, with the most pronounced mid-level height anomalies shifting east-southeastward into the Great Lakes region, in the wake of at least a pair of short wave troughs progressing off the Atlantic Seaboard. Within this regime, weak mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress east of the U.S. Rockies, with an embedded low migrating east-northeast/east of the southern Rockies through the Texas Panhandle or Texas South Plains vicinity by 12Z Friday. There remains substantive spread among the various model output concerning the track of the mid-level low, but appreciable surface cyclogenesis across the southern Great Plains is unlikely with initially entrenched surface ridging slow to weaken. Although models indicate that the more strongly supporting confluent mid-level flow will begin to shift east of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Thursday, expansive cold surface ridging (centered over the southern Appalachians) is forecast to generally be maintained across much of the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico into at least early Friday. Seasonably high moisture content likely will remain confined along and south of a remnant baroclinic zone, south of the Florida Straits into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This front (particularly across portions of the south central Gulf) may become a focus for increasing thunderstorm development Thursday through Thursday night, aided by forcing associated with a mid/upper short wave perturbation emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific. Otherwise, modest elevated moisture return, coupled with cooling further aloft associated with the mid-level low, probably will support continuing weak thunderstorm development across the southern Rockies into southern Great Plains vicinity into early Friday. ..Kerr.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the Four Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue eastward over the Four Corners area and southern Rockies through tonight, removed from a more progressive belt of westerlies over the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada. Steepening lapse rates and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low will support isolated thunderstorm potential from northeast Arizona/southeast Utah into New Mexico especially tonight, while other thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight farther east across eastern New Mexico and western Texas within a persistent warm advection regime. Additionally, a few thunderstorms will be possible across/near south Florida near a convergence zone where a moist air mass persists. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the Four Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue eastward over the Four Corners area and southern Rockies through tonight, removed from a more progressive belt of westerlies over the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada. Steepening lapse rates and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low will support isolated thunderstorm potential from northeast Arizona/southeast Utah into New Mexico especially tonight, while other thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight farther east across eastern New Mexico and western Texas within a persistent warm advection regime. Additionally, a few thunderstorms will be possible across/near south Florida near a convergence zone where a moist air mass persists. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the Four Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue eastward over the Four Corners area and southern Rockies through tonight, removed from a more progressive belt of westerlies over the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada. Steepening lapse rates and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low will support isolated thunderstorm potential from northeast Arizona/southeast Utah into New Mexico especially tonight, while other thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight farther east across eastern New Mexico and western Texas within a persistent warm advection regime. Additionally, a few thunderstorms will be possible across/near south Florida near a convergence zone where a moist air mass persists. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the Four Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue eastward over the Four Corners area and southern Rockies through tonight, removed from a more progressive belt of westerlies over the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada. Steepening lapse rates and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low will support isolated thunderstorm potential from northeast Arizona/southeast Utah into New Mexico especially tonight, while other thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight farther east across eastern New Mexico and western Texas within a persistent warm advection regime. Additionally, a few thunderstorms will be possible across/near south Florida near a convergence zone where a moist air mass persists. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the Four Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue eastward over the Four Corners area and southern Rockies through tonight, removed from a more progressive belt of westerlies over the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada. Steepening lapse rates and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low will support isolated thunderstorm potential from northeast Arizona/southeast Utah into New Mexico especially tonight, while other thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight farther east across eastern New Mexico and western Texas within a persistent warm advection regime. Additionally, a few thunderstorms will be possible across/near south Florida near a convergence zone where a moist air mass persists. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the Four Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue eastward over the Four Corners area and southern Rockies through tonight, removed from a more progressive belt of westerlies over the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada. Steepening lapse rates and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low will support isolated thunderstorm potential from northeast Arizona/southeast Utah into New Mexico especially tonight, while other thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight farther east across eastern New Mexico and western Texas within a persistent warm advection regime. Additionally, a few thunderstorms will be possible across/near south Florida near a convergence zone where a moist air mass persists. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible through tonight from the Four Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A closed mid/upper-level low will continue eastward over the Four Corners area and southern Rockies through tonight, removed from a more progressive belt of westerlies over the northern tier of the CONUS and Canada. Steepening lapse rates and ascent ahead of the aforementioned upper low will support isolated thunderstorm potential from northeast Arizona/southeast Utah into New Mexico especially tonight, while other thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight farther east across eastern New Mexico and western Texas within a persistent warm advection regime. Additionally, a few thunderstorms will be possible across/near south Florida near a convergence zone where a moist air mass persists. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0908 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest surface observations along the southern CA coast show winds gusting between 30-40 mph, but RH has generally remained above 30%. Some diurnal RH reduction is anticipated this afternoon, and may result in localized fire weather concerns (mainly over Ventura and LA counties). However, the potential for more widespread elevated conditions remains too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... The CONUS will generally be under the influence of an upper-level ridge today. A cutoff low will slowly progress eastward toward the Four Corners, becoming more of an open wave in the process. At the surface, high pressure will be present across the vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will keep fire weather concerns low for most areas. Some locally elevated fire weather may occur in southern California as modest offshore flow persists through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0908 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest surface observations along the southern CA coast show winds gusting between 30-40 mph, but RH has generally remained above 30%. Some diurnal RH reduction is anticipated this afternoon, and may result in localized fire weather concerns (mainly over Ventura and LA counties). However, the potential for more widespread elevated conditions remains too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... The CONUS will generally be under the influence of an upper-level ridge today. A cutoff low will slowly progress eastward toward the Four Corners, becoming more of an open wave in the process. At the surface, high pressure will be present across the vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will keep fire weather concerns low for most areas. Some locally elevated fire weather may occur in southern California as modest offshore flow persists through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0908 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest surface observations along the southern CA coast show winds gusting between 30-40 mph, but RH has generally remained above 30%. Some diurnal RH reduction is anticipated this afternoon, and may result in localized fire weather concerns (mainly over Ventura and LA counties). However, the potential for more widespread elevated conditions remains too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... The CONUS will generally be under the influence of an upper-level ridge today. A cutoff low will slowly progress eastward toward the Four Corners, becoming more of an open wave in the process. At the surface, high pressure will be present across the vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will keep fire weather concerns low for most areas. Some locally elevated fire weather may occur in southern California as modest offshore flow persists through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0908 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest surface observations along the southern CA coast show winds gusting between 30-40 mph, but RH has generally remained above 30%. Some diurnal RH reduction is anticipated this afternoon, and may result in localized fire weather concerns (mainly over Ventura and LA counties). However, the potential for more widespread elevated conditions remains too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... The CONUS will generally be under the influence of an upper-level ridge today. A cutoff low will slowly progress eastward toward the Four Corners, becoming more of an open wave in the process. At the surface, high pressure will be present across the vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will keep fire weather concerns low for most areas. Some locally elevated fire weather may occur in southern California as modest offshore flow persists through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0908 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest surface observations along the southern CA coast show winds gusting between 30-40 mph, but RH has generally remained above 30%. Some diurnal RH reduction is anticipated this afternoon, and may result in localized fire weather concerns (mainly over Ventura and LA counties). However, the potential for more widespread elevated conditions remains too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... The CONUS will generally be under the influence of an upper-level ridge today. A cutoff low will slowly progress eastward toward the Four Corners, becoming more of an open wave in the process. At the surface, high pressure will be present across the vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will keep fire weather concerns low for most areas. Some locally elevated fire weather may occur in southern California as modest offshore flow persists through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0908 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest surface observations along the southern CA coast show winds gusting between 30-40 mph, but RH has generally remained above 30%. Some diurnal RH reduction is anticipated this afternoon, and may result in localized fire weather concerns (mainly over Ventura and LA counties). However, the potential for more widespread elevated conditions remains too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 12/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... The CONUS will generally be under the influence of an upper-level ridge today. A cutoff low will slowly progress eastward toward the Four Corners, becoming more of an open wave in the process. At the surface, high pressure will be present across the vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation will keep fire weather concerns low for most areas. Some locally elevated fire weather may occur in southern California as modest offshore flow persists through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms will be possible through tonight from the Four Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly eastward over northern AZ toward NM by Thursday morning. Surface ridging and an associated cool air mass will be maintained across most of the central and eastern CONUS, beneath confluent midlevel flow. This low-level flow regime will limit substantial boundary-layer moisture to south FL, where a few thunderstorms will be possible along the convergence zone coincident with the northwest edge of the 68-72 F dewpoints across the Keys and southeast FL. Farther west, a modifying air mass with dewpoints in the low-mid 60s will persist across Deep South TX, though poor lapse rates aloft suggest that convection will remain too shallow for charge separation and lighting production. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and ascent immediately east of the midlevel low could support isolated thunderstorms over the higher terrain of northeast AZ and western NM this evening into tonight. A few lightning flashes with elevated convection will also be possible farther east in the persistent warm advection zone with weak buoyancy over west TX and the TX Panhandle. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/13/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms will be possible through tonight from the Four Corners into west Texas, and across parts of south Florida. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move slowly eastward over northern AZ toward NM by Thursday morning. Surface ridging and an associated cool air mass will be maintained across most of the central and eastern CONUS, beneath confluent midlevel flow. This low-level flow regime will limit substantial boundary-layer moisture to south FL, where a few thunderstorms will be possible along the convergence zone coincident with the northwest edge of the 68-72 F dewpoints across the Keys and southeast FL. Farther west, a modifying air mass with dewpoints in the low-mid 60s will persist across Deep South TX, though poor lapse rates aloft suggest that convection will remain too shallow for charge separation and lighting production. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and ascent immediately east of the midlevel low could support isolated thunderstorms over the higher terrain of northeast AZ and western NM this evening into tonight. A few lightning flashes with elevated convection will also be possible farther east in the persistent warm advection zone with weak buoyancy over west TX and the TX Panhandle. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/13/2023 Read more