Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Synopsis... The stronger westerlies will remain confined to areas near and north of the Canadian/U.S. border through this period. This regime may trend more zonal, as an embedded low-amplitude perturbation suppresses mid-level ridging across northwestern Canada, but mid-level heights are forecast to remain otherwise seasonably high across the northeastern mid-latitude Pacific through much of the northern tier of the U.S. and southern Canada. In lower latitudes, models indicate that flow will continue to become more amplified, with strong cyclogenesis proceeding across the southern mid-latitude Pacific. Downstream of an associated broad, deep low evolving in mid-levels, a prominent mid-level ridge appears likely to build across and inland of the Pacific coast, along an axis east of the Gulf of California into the Great Basin and northern Intermountain Region by 12Z Saturday. To the east of this ridge, generally weak large-scale troughing likely will be maintained. It appears that it will continue to slowly shift east of the Rockies toward the Mississippi Valley, as one embedded low and short wave perturbation accelerate from the Texas Panhandle vicinity toward the lower Missouri Valley, downstream of another digging to the east of the northern Rockies. Considerable spread exists among the various model output concerning the developments over the interior U.S., with the NCEP SREF one notable outlier. However, there appears better consensus concerning the progression of a short wave perturbation emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which may contribute to the initiation of cyclogenesis across the south central Gulf of Mexico by late Friday into Friday night. This will probably become focused near the intersection of the remnant western flank of a frontal zone stalling to the south of the Florida Straits and weak surface troughing developing across the western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southern Great Plains into Gulf of Mexico... Seasonably high moisture content will remain confined to areas along and south of the Gulf frontal zone, where large-scale forcing for ascent is likely to maintain considerable thunderstorm development over the south central Gulf of Mexico through Friday and Friday night. However, a modest influx of low-level moisture initially across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico into portions of the southern Great Plains may continue to contribute to weak instability. Inland of northwestern Gulf Coastal areas, this likely will remain rooted within a weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime. Highest thunderstorms probabilities may be concentrated across parts of northwestern into north central Texas Friday morning into early afternoon, before the mid-level low and associated cold core tend to accelerate north-northeast of the better low-level moisture return. ..Kerr.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Synopsis... The stronger westerlies will remain confined to areas near and north of the Canadian/U.S. border through this period. This regime may trend more zonal, as an embedded low-amplitude perturbation suppresses mid-level ridging across northwestern Canada, but mid-level heights are forecast to remain otherwise seasonably high across the northeastern mid-latitude Pacific through much of the northern tier of the U.S. and southern Canada. In lower latitudes, models indicate that flow will continue to become more amplified, with strong cyclogenesis proceeding across the southern mid-latitude Pacific. Downstream of an associated broad, deep low evolving in mid-levels, a prominent mid-level ridge appears likely to build across and inland of the Pacific coast, along an axis east of the Gulf of California into the Great Basin and northern Intermountain Region by 12Z Saturday. To the east of this ridge, generally weak large-scale troughing likely will be maintained. It appears that it will continue to slowly shift east of the Rockies toward the Mississippi Valley, as one embedded low and short wave perturbation accelerate from the Texas Panhandle vicinity toward the lower Missouri Valley, downstream of another digging to the east of the northern Rockies. Considerable spread exists among the various model output concerning the developments over the interior U.S., with the NCEP SREF one notable outlier. However, there appears better consensus concerning the progression of a short wave perturbation emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which may contribute to the initiation of cyclogenesis across the south central Gulf of Mexico by late Friday into Friday night. This will probably become focused near the intersection of the remnant western flank of a frontal zone stalling to the south of the Florida Straits and weak surface troughing developing across the western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southern Great Plains into Gulf of Mexico... Seasonably high moisture content will remain confined to areas along and south of the Gulf frontal zone, where large-scale forcing for ascent is likely to maintain considerable thunderstorm development over the south central Gulf of Mexico through Friday and Friday night. However, a modest influx of low-level moisture initially across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico into portions of the southern Great Plains may continue to contribute to weak instability. Inland of northwestern Gulf Coastal areas, this likely will remain rooted within a weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime. Highest thunderstorms probabilities may be concentrated across parts of northwestern into north central Texas Friday morning into early afternoon, before the mid-level low and associated cold core tend to accelerate north-northeast of the better low-level moisture return. ..Kerr.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Synopsis... The stronger westerlies will remain confined to areas near and north of the Canadian/U.S. border through this period. This regime may trend more zonal, as an embedded low-amplitude perturbation suppresses mid-level ridging across northwestern Canada, but mid-level heights are forecast to remain otherwise seasonably high across the northeastern mid-latitude Pacific through much of the northern tier of the U.S. and southern Canada. In lower latitudes, models indicate that flow will continue to become more amplified, with strong cyclogenesis proceeding across the southern mid-latitude Pacific. Downstream of an associated broad, deep low evolving in mid-levels, a prominent mid-level ridge appears likely to build across and inland of the Pacific coast, along an axis east of the Gulf of California into the Great Basin and northern Intermountain Region by 12Z Saturday. To the east of this ridge, generally weak large-scale troughing likely will be maintained. It appears that it will continue to slowly shift east of the Rockies toward the Mississippi Valley, as one embedded low and short wave perturbation accelerate from the Texas Panhandle vicinity toward the lower Missouri Valley, downstream of another digging to the east of the northern Rockies. Considerable spread exists among the various model output concerning the developments over the interior U.S., with the NCEP SREF one notable outlier. However, there appears better consensus concerning the progression of a short wave perturbation emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which may contribute to the initiation of cyclogenesis across the south central Gulf of Mexico by late Friday into Friday night. This will probably become focused near the intersection of the remnant western flank of a frontal zone stalling to the south of the Florida Straits and weak surface troughing developing across the western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southern Great Plains into Gulf of Mexico... Seasonably high moisture content will remain confined to areas along and south of the Gulf frontal zone, where large-scale forcing for ascent is likely to maintain considerable thunderstorm development over the south central Gulf of Mexico through Friday and Friday night. However, a modest influx of low-level moisture initially across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico into portions of the southern Great Plains may continue to contribute to weak instability. Inland of northwestern Gulf Coastal areas, this likely will remain rooted within a weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime. Highest thunderstorms probabilities may be concentrated across parts of northwestern into north central Texas Friday morning into early afternoon, before the mid-level low and associated cold core tend to accelerate north-northeast of the better low-level moisture return. ..Kerr.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Synopsis... The stronger westerlies will remain confined to areas near and north of the Canadian/U.S. border through this period. This regime may trend more zonal, as an embedded low-amplitude perturbation suppresses mid-level ridging across northwestern Canada, but mid-level heights are forecast to remain otherwise seasonably high across the northeastern mid-latitude Pacific through much of the northern tier of the U.S. and southern Canada. In lower latitudes, models indicate that flow will continue to become more amplified, with strong cyclogenesis proceeding across the southern mid-latitude Pacific. Downstream of an associated broad, deep low evolving in mid-levels, a prominent mid-level ridge appears likely to build across and inland of the Pacific coast, along an axis east of the Gulf of California into the Great Basin and northern Intermountain Region by 12Z Saturday. To the east of this ridge, generally weak large-scale troughing likely will be maintained. It appears that it will continue to slowly shift east of the Rockies toward the Mississippi Valley, as one embedded low and short wave perturbation accelerate from the Texas Panhandle vicinity toward the lower Missouri Valley, downstream of another digging to the east of the northern Rockies. Considerable spread exists among the various model output concerning the developments over the interior U.S., with the NCEP SREF one notable outlier. However, there appears better consensus concerning the progression of a short wave perturbation emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which may contribute to the initiation of cyclogenesis across the south central Gulf of Mexico by late Friday into Friday night. This will probably become focused near the intersection of the remnant western flank of a frontal zone stalling to the south of the Florida Straits and weak surface troughing developing across the western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southern Great Plains into Gulf of Mexico... Seasonably high moisture content will remain confined to areas along and south of the Gulf frontal zone, where large-scale forcing for ascent is likely to maintain considerable thunderstorm development over the south central Gulf of Mexico through Friday and Friday night. However, a modest influx of low-level moisture initially across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico into portions of the southern Great Plains may continue to contribute to weak instability. Inland of northwestern Gulf Coastal areas, this likely will remain rooted within a weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime. Highest thunderstorms probabilities may be concentrated across parts of northwestern into north central Texas Friday morning into early afternoon, before the mid-level low and associated cold core tend to accelerate north-northeast of the better low-level moisture return. ..Kerr.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Synopsis... The stronger westerlies will remain confined to areas near and north of the Canadian/U.S. border through this period. This regime may trend more zonal, as an embedded low-amplitude perturbation suppresses mid-level ridging across northwestern Canada, but mid-level heights are forecast to remain otherwise seasonably high across the northeastern mid-latitude Pacific through much of the northern tier of the U.S. and southern Canada. In lower latitudes, models indicate that flow will continue to become more amplified, with strong cyclogenesis proceeding across the southern mid-latitude Pacific. Downstream of an associated broad, deep low evolving in mid-levels, a prominent mid-level ridge appears likely to build across and inland of the Pacific coast, along an axis east of the Gulf of California into the Great Basin and northern Intermountain Region by 12Z Saturday. To the east of this ridge, generally weak large-scale troughing likely will be maintained. It appears that it will continue to slowly shift east of the Rockies toward the Mississippi Valley, as one embedded low and short wave perturbation accelerate from the Texas Panhandle vicinity toward the lower Missouri Valley, downstream of another digging to the east of the northern Rockies. Considerable spread exists among the various model output concerning the developments over the interior U.S., with the NCEP SREF one notable outlier. However, there appears better consensus concerning the progression of a short wave perturbation emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which may contribute to the initiation of cyclogenesis across the south central Gulf of Mexico by late Friday into Friday night. This will probably become focused near the intersection of the remnant western flank of a frontal zone stalling to the south of the Florida Straits and weak surface troughing developing across the western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southern Great Plains into Gulf of Mexico... Seasonably high moisture content will remain confined to areas along and south of the Gulf frontal zone, where large-scale forcing for ascent is likely to maintain considerable thunderstorm development over the south central Gulf of Mexico through Friday and Friday night. However, a modest influx of low-level moisture initially across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico into portions of the southern Great Plains may continue to contribute to weak instability. Inland of northwestern Gulf Coastal areas, this likely will remain rooted within a weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime. Highest thunderstorms probabilities may be concentrated across parts of northwestern into north central Texas Friday morning into early afternoon, before the mid-level low and associated cold core tend to accelerate north-northeast of the better low-level moisture return. ..Kerr.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS the upper-level flow pattern is forecast to amplify as an upper low over AZ/NM moves slowly into the southern Great Plains tonight through early Friday. Weak elevated MUCAPE below 500 J/kg, and sufficient upper-level ascent, will support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the low over the southern Rockies and High Plains within a broad area of mixed-precipitation. Otherwise, ridging and strong surface high pressure on either side of the low will limit the inland return of moisture to much of the rest of the US. Occasional lightning is possible, along and south of a remnant front, near the south TX and southern FL coasts. However, marginal thermodynamics suggests storm coverage may remain quite sparse. With poor overlap of favorable shear and buoyancy for organized thunderstorms, severe weather is unlikely across the country through tonight. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS the upper-level flow pattern is forecast to amplify as an upper low over AZ/NM moves slowly into the southern Great Plains tonight through early Friday. Weak elevated MUCAPE below 500 J/kg, and sufficient upper-level ascent, will support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the low over the southern Rockies and High Plains within a broad area of mixed-precipitation. Otherwise, ridging and strong surface high pressure on either side of the low will limit the inland return of moisture to much of the rest of the US. Occasional lightning is possible, along and south of a remnant front, near the south TX and southern FL coasts. However, marginal thermodynamics suggests storm coverage may remain quite sparse. With poor overlap of favorable shear and buoyancy for organized thunderstorms, severe weather is unlikely across the country through tonight. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS the upper-level flow pattern is forecast to amplify as an upper low over AZ/NM moves slowly into the southern Great Plains tonight through early Friday. Weak elevated MUCAPE below 500 J/kg, and sufficient upper-level ascent, will support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the low over the southern Rockies and High Plains within a broad area of mixed-precipitation. Otherwise, ridging and strong surface high pressure on either side of the low will limit the inland return of moisture to much of the rest of the US. Occasional lightning is possible, along and south of a remnant front, near the south TX and southern FL coasts. However, marginal thermodynamics suggests storm coverage may remain quite sparse. With poor overlap of favorable shear and buoyancy for organized thunderstorms, severe weather is unlikely across the country through tonight. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS the upper-level flow pattern is forecast to amplify as an upper low over AZ/NM moves slowly into the southern Great Plains tonight through early Friday. Weak elevated MUCAPE below 500 J/kg, and sufficient upper-level ascent, will support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the low over the southern Rockies and High Plains within a broad area of mixed-precipitation. Otherwise, ridging and strong surface high pressure on either side of the low will limit the inland return of moisture to much of the rest of the US. Occasional lightning is possible, along and south of a remnant front, near the south TX and southern FL coasts. However, marginal thermodynamics suggests storm coverage may remain quite sparse. With poor overlap of favorable shear and buoyancy for organized thunderstorms, severe weather is unlikely across the country through tonight. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS the upper-level flow pattern is forecast to amplify as an upper low over AZ/NM moves slowly into the southern Great Plains tonight through early Friday. Weak elevated MUCAPE below 500 J/kg, and sufficient upper-level ascent, will support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the low over the southern Rockies and High Plains within a broad area of mixed-precipitation. Otherwise, ridging and strong surface high pressure on either side of the low will limit the inland return of moisture to much of the rest of the US. Occasional lightning is possible, along and south of a remnant front, near the south TX and southern FL coasts. However, marginal thermodynamics suggests storm coverage may remain quite sparse. With poor overlap of favorable shear and buoyancy for organized thunderstorms, severe weather is unlikely across the country through tonight. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS the upper-level flow pattern is forecast to amplify as an upper low over AZ/NM moves slowly into the southern Great Plains tonight through early Friday. Weak elevated MUCAPE below 500 J/kg, and sufficient upper-level ascent, will support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the low over the southern Rockies and High Plains within a broad area of mixed-precipitation. Otherwise, ridging and strong surface high pressure on either side of the low will limit the inland return of moisture to much of the rest of the US. Occasional lightning is possible, along and south of a remnant front, near the south TX and southern FL coasts. However, marginal thermodynamics suggests storm coverage may remain quite sparse. With poor overlap of favorable shear and buoyancy for organized thunderstorms, severe weather is unlikely across the country through tonight. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0922 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather potential remains low for today. Recent surface observations show an anomalously strong surface high over the eastern CONUS, which will limit wind speeds across much of the country. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today. Other than just ahead of the trough, surface high pressure will be present across the CONUS. Fire weather concerns should remain minimal across most areas due to cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation. With high pressure remaining in the West, offshore flow will continue in southern California. Given only a modest offshore gradient and little in the way of upper-level wind support, any elevated fire weather conditions will be localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0922 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather potential remains low for today. Recent surface observations show an anomalously strong surface high over the eastern CONUS, which will limit wind speeds across much of the country. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today. Other than just ahead of the trough, surface high pressure will be present across the CONUS. Fire weather concerns should remain minimal across most areas due to cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation. With high pressure remaining in the West, offshore flow will continue in southern California. Given only a modest offshore gradient and little in the way of upper-level wind support, any elevated fire weather conditions will be localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0922 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather potential remains low for today. Recent surface observations show an anomalously strong surface high over the eastern CONUS, which will limit wind speeds across much of the country. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today. Other than just ahead of the trough, surface high pressure will be present across the CONUS. Fire weather concerns should remain minimal across most areas due to cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation. With high pressure remaining in the West, offshore flow will continue in southern California. Given only a modest offshore gradient and little in the way of upper-level wind support, any elevated fire weather conditions will be localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0922 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather potential remains low for today. Recent surface observations show an anomalously strong surface high over the eastern CONUS, which will limit wind speeds across much of the country. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today. Other than just ahead of the trough, surface high pressure will be present across the CONUS. Fire weather concerns should remain minimal across most areas due to cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation. With high pressure remaining in the West, offshore flow will continue in southern California. Given only a modest offshore gradient and little in the way of upper-level wind support, any elevated fire weather conditions will be localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0922 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather potential remains low for today. Recent surface observations show an anomalously strong surface high over the eastern CONUS, which will limit wind speeds across much of the country. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains today. Other than just ahead of the trough, surface high pressure will be present across the CONUS. Fire weather concerns should remain minimal across most areas due to cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation. With high pressure remaining in the West, offshore flow will continue in southern California. Given only a modest offshore gradient and little in the way of upper-level wind support, any elevated fire weather conditions will be localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0600 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A midlevel closed low over AZ will continue eastward across NM to the TX Panhandle by early Friday. Primarily elevated thunderstorms will continue to be possible periodically from eastern NM into northwest TX/western OK where 200-400 J/kg MUCAPE rooted aloft will coincide with warm advection and differential cyclonic vorticity advection east of the midlevel low. Farther south and east, an easterly low-level flow regime will persist along a remnant front from the FL Straits to the western Gulf of Mexico. Thermodynamic profiles will be somewhat marginal for charge separation across Deep South TX and near the Keys/southeast FL coast within the northwest edge of a largely modified air mass and convergent low-level flow near the coast, though isolated flashes will be possible. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0600 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A midlevel closed low over AZ will continue eastward across NM to the TX Panhandle by early Friday. Primarily elevated thunderstorms will continue to be possible periodically from eastern NM into northwest TX/western OK where 200-400 J/kg MUCAPE rooted aloft will coincide with warm advection and differential cyclonic vorticity advection east of the midlevel low. Farther south and east, an easterly low-level flow regime will persist along a remnant front from the FL Straits to the western Gulf of Mexico. Thermodynamic profiles will be somewhat marginal for charge separation across Deep South TX and near the Keys/southeast FL coast within the northwest edge of a largely modified air mass and convergent low-level flow near the coast, though isolated flashes will be possible. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0600 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A midlevel closed low over AZ will continue eastward across NM to the TX Panhandle by early Friday. Primarily elevated thunderstorms will continue to be possible periodically from eastern NM into northwest TX/western OK where 200-400 J/kg MUCAPE rooted aloft will coincide with warm advection and differential cyclonic vorticity advection east of the midlevel low. Farther south and east, an easterly low-level flow regime will persist along a remnant front from the FL Straits to the western Gulf of Mexico. Thermodynamic profiles will be somewhat marginal for charge separation across Deep South TX and near the Keys/southeast FL coast within the northwest edge of a largely modified air mass and convergent low-level flow near the coast, though isolated flashes will be possible. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0600 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A midlevel closed low over AZ will continue eastward across NM to the TX Panhandle by early Friday. Primarily elevated thunderstorms will continue to be possible periodically from eastern NM into northwest TX/western OK where 200-400 J/kg MUCAPE rooted aloft will coincide with warm advection and differential cyclonic vorticity advection east of the midlevel low. Farther south and east, an easterly low-level flow regime will persist along a remnant front from the FL Straits to the western Gulf of Mexico. Thermodynamic profiles will be somewhat marginal for charge separation across Deep South TX and near the Keys/southeast FL coast within the northwest edge of a largely modified air mass and convergent low-level flow near the coast, though isolated flashes will be possible. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 12/14/2023 Read more