Severe Storms

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Dec 14 23:48:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Thu Dec 14 23:48:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Fire weather potential through the extended period remains limited. Long-range ensemble guidance has been consistent in depicting robust cyclogenesis along the East Coast this weekend ahead of the upper trough currently over New Mexico. Strong winds are likely across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on the backside of this low, but an influx of cooler air, coupled with the potential for preceding precipitation, should modulate fire concerns. Winds will abate across much of the country by early next week as a surface high becomes established over the central CONUS. Extended ensembles continue to hint at the approach of another mid-level wave across the Four Corners by mid/late next week, which may support a dry return-flow regime through the southern to central Plains. This may be favorable for fire weather concerns across this region, but confidence in the fire threat is limited due to precipitation chances this weekend (and the associated impact on fuel status) and considerable spread regarding mesoscale details at this range. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Fire weather potential through the extended period remains limited. Long-range ensemble guidance has been consistent in depicting robust cyclogenesis along the East Coast this weekend ahead of the upper trough currently over New Mexico. Strong winds are likely across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on the backside of this low, but an influx of cooler air, coupled with the potential for preceding precipitation, should modulate fire concerns. Winds will abate across much of the country by early next week as a surface high becomes established over the central CONUS. Extended ensembles continue to hint at the approach of another mid-level wave across the Four Corners by mid/late next week, which may support a dry return-flow regime through the southern to central Plains. This may be favorable for fire weather concerns across this region, but confidence in the fire threat is limited due to precipitation chances this weekend (and the associated impact on fuel status) and considerable spread regarding mesoscale details at this range. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Fire weather potential through the extended period remains limited. Long-range ensemble guidance has been consistent in depicting robust cyclogenesis along the East Coast this weekend ahead of the upper trough currently over New Mexico. Strong winds are likely across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on the backside of this low, but an influx of cooler air, coupled with the potential for preceding precipitation, should modulate fire concerns. Winds will abate across much of the country by early next week as a surface high becomes established over the central CONUS. Extended ensembles continue to hint at the approach of another mid-level wave across the Four Corners by mid/late next week, which may support a dry return-flow regime through the southern to central Plains. This may be favorable for fire weather concerns across this region, but confidence in the fire threat is limited due to precipitation chances this weekend (and the associated impact on fuel status) and considerable spread regarding mesoscale details at this range. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Fire weather potential through the extended period remains limited. Long-range ensemble guidance has been consistent in depicting robust cyclogenesis along the East Coast this weekend ahead of the upper trough currently over New Mexico. Strong winds are likely across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on the backside of this low, but an influx of cooler air, coupled with the potential for preceding precipitation, should modulate fire concerns. Winds will abate across much of the country by early next week as a surface high becomes established over the central CONUS. Extended ensembles continue to hint at the approach of another mid-level wave across the Four Corners by mid/late next week, which may support a dry return-flow regime through the southern to central Plains. This may be favorable for fire weather concerns across this region, but confidence in the fire threat is limited due to precipitation chances this weekend (and the associated impact on fuel status) and considerable spread regarding mesoscale details at this range. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Fire weather potential through the extended period remains limited. Long-range ensemble guidance has been consistent in depicting robust cyclogenesis along the East Coast this weekend ahead of the upper trough currently over New Mexico. Strong winds are likely across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on the backside of this low, but an influx of cooler air, coupled with the potential for preceding precipitation, should modulate fire concerns. Winds will abate across much of the country by early next week as a surface high becomes established over the central CONUS. Extended ensembles continue to hint at the approach of another mid-level wave across the Four Corners by mid/late next week, which may support a dry return-flow regime through the southern to central Plains. This may be favorable for fire weather concerns across this region, but confidence in the fire threat is limited due to precipitation chances this weekend (and the associated impact on fuel status) and considerable spread regarding mesoscale details at this range. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity will gradually spread from the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle through the Texas South Plains and portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwestern Texas by daybreak Friday. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments to the categorical (10 percent probability) across the southern Rockies/Great Plains have been made, mainly to account for the progression of the synoptic/sub-synoptic features and the latest trends in model output. ..Kerr.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS the upper-level flow pattern is forecast to amplify as an upper low over AZ/NM moves slowly into the southern Great Plains tonight through early Friday. Weak elevated MUCAPE below 500 J/kg, and sufficient upper-level ascent, will support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the low over the southern Rockies and High Plains within a broad area of mixed-precipitation. Otherwise, ridging and strong surface high pressure on either side of the low will limit the inland return of moisture to much of the rest of the US. Occasional lightning is possible, along and south of a remnant front, near the south TX and southern FL coasts. However, marginal thermodynamics suggests storm coverage may remain quite sparse. With poor overlap of favorable shear and buoyancy for organized thunderstorms, severe weather is unlikely across the country through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity will gradually spread from the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle through the Texas South Plains and portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwestern Texas by daybreak Friday. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments to the categorical (10 percent probability) across the southern Rockies/Great Plains have been made, mainly to account for the progression of the synoptic/sub-synoptic features and the latest trends in model output. ..Kerr.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS the upper-level flow pattern is forecast to amplify as an upper low over AZ/NM moves slowly into the southern Great Plains tonight through early Friday. Weak elevated MUCAPE below 500 J/kg, and sufficient upper-level ascent, will support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the low over the southern Rockies and High Plains within a broad area of mixed-precipitation. Otherwise, ridging and strong surface high pressure on either side of the low will limit the inland return of moisture to much of the rest of the US. Occasional lightning is possible, along and south of a remnant front, near the south TX and southern FL coasts. However, marginal thermodynamics suggests storm coverage may remain quite sparse. With poor overlap of favorable shear and buoyancy for organized thunderstorms, severe weather is unlikely across the country through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity will gradually spread from the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle through the Texas South Plains and portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwestern Texas by daybreak Friday. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments to the categorical (10 percent probability) across the southern Rockies/Great Plains have been made, mainly to account for the progression of the synoptic/sub-synoptic features and the latest trends in model output. ..Kerr.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS the upper-level flow pattern is forecast to amplify as an upper low over AZ/NM moves slowly into the southern Great Plains tonight through early Friday. Weak elevated MUCAPE below 500 J/kg, and sufficient upper-level ascent, will support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the low over the southern Rockies and High Plains within a broad area of mixed-precipitation. Otherwise, ridging and strong surface high pressure on either side of the low will limit the inland return of moisture to much of the rest of the US. Occasional lightning is possible, along and south of a remnant front, near the south TX and southern FL coasts. However, marginal thermodynamics suggests storm coverage may remain quite sparse. With poor overlap of favorable shear and buoyancy for organized thunderstorms, severe weather is unlikely across the country through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity will gradually spread from the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle through the Texas South Plains and portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwestern Texas by daybreak Friday. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments to the categorical (10 percent probability) across the southern Rockies/Great Plains have been made, mainly to account for the progression of the synoptic/sub-synoptic features and the latest trends in model output. ..Kerr.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS the upper-level flow pattern is forecast to amplify as an upper low over AZ/NM moves slowly into the southern Great Plains tonight through early Friday. Weak elevated MUCAPE below 500 J/kg, and sufficient upper-level ascent, will support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the low over the southern Rockies and High Plains within a broad area of mixed-precipitation. Otherwise, ridging and strong surface high pressure on either side of the low will limit the inland return of moisture to much of the rest of the US. Occasional lightning is possible, along and south of a remnant front, near the south TX and southern FL coasts. However, marginal thermodynamics suggests storm coverage may remain quite sparse. With poor overlap of favorable shear and buoyancy for organized thunderstorms, severe weather is unlikely across the country through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity will gradually spread from the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle through the Texas South Plains and portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwestern Texas by daybreak Friday. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments to the categorical (10 percent probability) across the southern Rockies/Great Plains have been made, mainly to account for the progression of the synoptic/sub-synoptic features and the latest trends in model output. ..Kerr.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS the upper-level flow pattern is forecast to amplify as an upper low over AZ/NM moves slowly into the southern Great Plains tonight through early Friday. Weak elevated MUCAPE below 500 J/kg, and sufficient upper-level ascent, will support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the low over the southern Rockies and High Plains within a broad area of mixed-precipitation. Otherwise, ridging and strong surface high pressure on either side of the low will limit the inland return of moisture to much of the rest of the US. Occasional lightning is possible, along and south of a remnant front, near the south TX and southern FL coasts. However, marginal thermodynamics suggests storm coverage may remain quite sparse. With poor overlap of favorable shear and buoyancy for organized thunderstorms, severe weather is unlikely across the country through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity will gradually spread from the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle through the Texas South Plains and portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwestern Texas by daybreak Friday. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments to the categorical (10 percent probability) across the southern Rockies/Great Plains have been made, mainly to account for the progression of the synoptic/sub-synoptic features and the latest trends in model output. ..Kerr.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS the upper-level flow pattern is forecast to amplify as an upper low over AZ/NM moves slowly into the southern Great Plains tonight through early Friday. Weak elevated MUCAPE below 500 J/kg, and sufficient upper-level ascent, will support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the low over the southern Rockies and High Plains within a broad area of mixed-precipitation. Otherwise, ridging and strong surface high pressure on either side of the low will limit the inland return of moisture to much of the rest of the US. Occasional lightning is possible, along and south of a remnant front, near the south TX and southern FL coasts. However, marginal thermodynamics suggests storm coverage may remain quite sparse. With poor overlap of favorable shear and buoyancy for organized thunderstorms, severe weather is unlikely across the country through tonight. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather concerns will be limited to the southern CA coastal mountains where locally elevated conditions are probable. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue east on Friday. This feature will eventually phase with another shortwave trough digging southward through the northern/central Plains. As on Friday, surface high pressure will continue to be prevalent to the east and west of the upper-level system. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation, fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal for most areas. Locally elevated fire weather is again possible in southern California as modest offshore winds persist through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather concerns will be limited to the southern CA coastal mountains where locally elevated conditions are probable. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue east on Friday. This feature will eventually phase with another shortwave trough digging southward through the northern/central Plains. As on Friday, surface high pressure will continue to be prevalent to the east and west of the upper-level system. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation, fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal for most areas. Locally elevated fire weather is again possible in southern California as modest offshore winds persist through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather concerns will be limited to the southern CA coastal mountains where locally elevated conditions are probable. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue east on Friday. This feature will eventually phase with another shortwave trough digging southward through the northern/central Plains. As on Friday, surface high pressure will continue to be prevalent to the east and west of the upper-level system. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation, fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal for most areas. Locally elevated fire weather is again possible in southern California as modest offshore winds persist through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather concerns will be limited to the southern CA coastal mountains where locally elevated conditions are probable. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue east on Friday. This feature will eventually phase with another shortwave trough digging southward through the northern/central Plains. As on Friday, surface high pressure will continue to be prevalent to the east and west of the upper-level system. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation, fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal for most areas. Locally elevated fire weather is again possible in southern California as modest offshore winds persist through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather concerns will be limited to the southern CA coastal mountains where locally elevated conditions are probable. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue east on Friday. This feature will eventually phase with another shortwave trough digging southward through the northern/central Plains. As on Friday, surface high pressure will continue to be prevalent to the east and west of the upper-level system. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation, fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal for most areas. Locally elevated fire weather is again possible in southern California as modest offshore winds persist through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather concerns will be limited to the southern CA coastal mountains where locally elevated conditions are probable. ..Moore.. 12/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue east on Friday. This feature will eventually phase with another shortwave trough digging southward through the northern/central Plains. As on Friday, surface high pressure will continue to be prevalent to the east and west of the upper-level system. Between cooler temperatures, light winds, and precipitation, fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal for most areas. Locally elevated fire weather is again possible in southern California as modest offshore winds persist through the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Synopsis... The stronger westerlies will remain confined to areas near and north of the Canadian/U.S. border through this period. This regime may trend more zonal, as an embedded low-amplitude perturbation suppresses mid-level ridging across northwestern Canada, but mid-level heights are forecast to remain otherwise seasonably high across the northeastern mid-latitude Pacific through much of the northern tier of the U.S. and southern Canada. In lower latitudes, models indicate that flow will continue to become more amplified, with strong cyclogenesis proceeding across the southern mid-latitude Pacific. Downstream of an associated broad, deep low evolving in mid-levels, a prominent mid-level ridge appears likely to build across and inland of the Pacific coast, along an axis east of the Gulf of California into the Great Basin and northern Intermountain Region by 12Z Saturday. To the east of this ridge, generally weak large-scale troughing likely will be maintained. It appears that it will continue to slowly shift east of the Rockies toward the Mississippi Valley, as one embedded low and short wave perturbation accelerate from the Texas Panhandle vicinity toward the lower Missouri Valley, downstream of another digging to the east of the northern Rockies. Considerable spread exists among the various model output concerning the developments over the interior U.S., with the NCEP SREF one notable outlier. However, there appears better consensus concerning the progression of a short wave perturbation emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which may contribute to the initiation of cyclogenesis across the south central Gulf of Mexico by late Friday into Friday night. This will probably become focused near the intersection of the remnant western flank of a frontal zone stalling to the south of the Florida Straits and weak surface troughing developing across the western Gulf of Mexico. ...Southern Great Plains into Gulf of Mexico... Seasonably high moisture content will remain confined to areas along and south of the Gulf frontal zone, where large-scale forcing for ascent is likely to maintain considerable thunderstorm development over the south central Gulf of Mexico through Friday and Friday night. However, a modest influx of low-level moisture initially across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico into portions of the southern Great Plains may continue to contribute to weak instability. Inland of northwestern Gulf Coastal areas, this likely will remain rooted within a weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime. Highest thunderstorms probabilities may be concentrated across parts of northwestern into north central Texas Friday morning into early afternoon, before the mid-level low and associated cold core tend to accelerate north-northeast of the better low-level moisture return. ..Kerr.. 12/14/2023 Read more