Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Some breezy conditions are possible today across the central/northern Plains as the surface pressure gradient slowly relaxes. However, cool conditions dominate across most of the CONUS. In addition, most of the CONUS has seen wetting rain within the last few days. Therefore, fire weather concerns are minimal today. ..Bentley.. 12/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Some breezy conditions are possible today across the central/northern Plains as the surface pressure gradient slowly relaxes. However, cool conditions dominate across most of the CONUS. In addition, most of the CONUS has seen wetting rain within the last few days. Therefore, fire weather concerns are minimal today. ..Bentley.. 12/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Some breezy conditions are possible today across the central/northern Plains as the surface pressure gradient slowly relaxes. However, cool conditions dominate across most of the CONUS. In addition, most of the CONUS has seen wetting rain within the last few days. Therefore, fire weather concerns are minimal today. ..Bentley.. 12/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Some breezy conditions are possible today across the central/northern Plains as the surface pressure gradient slowly relaxes. However, cool conditions dominate across most of the CONUS. In addition, most of the CONUS has seen wetting rain within the last few days. Therefore, fire weather concerns are minimal today. ..Bentley.. 12/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Some breezy conditions are possible today across the central/northern Plains as the surface pressure gradient slowly relaxes. However, cool conditions dominate across most of the CONUS. In addition, most of the CONUS has seen wetting rain within the last few days. Therefore, fire weather concerns are minimal today. ..Bentley.. 12/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Some breezy conditions are possible today across the central/northern Plains as the surface pressure gradient slowly relaxes. However, cool conditions dominate across most of the CONUS. In addition, most of the CONUS has seen wetting rain within the last few days. Therefore, fire weather concerns are minimal today. ..Bentley.. 12/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Some breezy conditions are possible today across the central/northern Plains as the surface pressure gradient slowly relaxes. However, cool conditions dominate across most of the CONUS. In addition, most of the CONUS has seen wetting rain within the last few days. Therefore, fire weather concerns are minimal today. ..Bentley.. 12/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone will be centered over the Mid-MS Valley on Wednesday. This system and associated upper trough will move only modestly eastward through the period. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the upper low/trough will be maintained over the eastern third of the CONUS. At the surface, low pressure off the SC coast will lift north/northeast. The center of the low will pass near or just offshore from the NC Outer Banks. Showers will be ongoing across the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday morning. While generally poor lower-level lapse rates and little heating will limited instability, some modest midlevel lapse rates will support modest elevated instability, and isolated thunderstorms are possible across coastal NC. A surface cold front will move offshore the Mid-Atlantic during the evening/overnight hours. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Across the West, a weak upper shortwave trough will quickly move across the Pacific Northwest. A few lightning flashes are possible offshore from the northern CA/OR/WA coasts, but overall chances for inland lightning appear lower than previously indicated given meager elevated instability. ..Leitman.. 12/26/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone will be centered over the Mid-MS Valley on Wednesday. This system and associated upper trough will move only modestly eastward through the period. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the upper low/trough will be maintained over the eastern third of the CONUS. At the surface, low pressure off the SC coast will lift north/northeast. The center of the low will pass near or just offshore from the NC Outer Banks. Showers will be ongoing across the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday morning. While generally poor lower-level lapse rates and little heating will limited instability, some modest midlevel lapse rates will support modest elevated instability, and isolated thunderstorms are possible across coastal NC. A surface cold front will move offshore the Mid-Atlantic during the evening/overnight hours. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Across the West, a weak upper shortwave trough will quickly move across the Pacific Northwest. A few lightning flashes are possible offshore from the northern CA/OR/WA coasts, but overall chances for inland lightning appear lower than previously indicated given meager elevated instability. ..Leitman.. 12/26/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone will be centered over the Mid-MS Valley on Wednesday. This system and associated upper trough will move only modestly eastward through the period. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the upper low/trough will be maintained over the eastern third of the CONUS. At the surface, low pressure off the SC coast will lift north/northeast. The center of the low will pass near or just offshore from the NC Outer Banks. Showers will be ongoing across the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday morning. While generally poor lower-level lapse rates and little heating will limited instability, some modest midlevel lapse rates will support modest elevated instability, and isolated thunderstorms are possible across coastal NC. A surface cold front will move offshore the Mid-Atlantic during the evening/overnight hours. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Across the West, a weak upper shortwave trough will quickly move across the Pacific Northwest. A few lightning flashes are possible offshore from the northern CA/OR/WA coasts, but overall chances for inland lightning appear lower than previously indicated given meager elevated instability. ..Leitman.. 12/26/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone will be centered over the Mid-MS Valley on Wednesday. This system and associated upper trough will move only modestly eastward through the period. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the upper low/trough will be maintained over the eastern third of the CONUS. At the surface, low pressure off the SC coast will lift north/northeast. The center of the low will pass near or just offshore from the NC Outer Banks. Showers will be ongoing across the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday morning. While generally poor lower-level lapse rates and little heating will limited instability, some modest midlevel lapse rates will support modest elevated instability, and isolated thunderstorms are possible across coastal NC. A surface cold front will move offshore the Mid-Atlantic during the evening/overnight hours. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Across the West, a weak upper shortwave trough will quickly move across the Pacific Northwest. A few lightning flashes are possible offshore from the northern CA/OR/WA coasts, but overall chances for inland lightning appear lower than previously indicated given meager elevated instability. ..Leitman.. 12/26/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone will be centered over the Mid-MS Valley on Wednesday. This system and associated upper trough will move only modestly eastward through the period. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the upper low/trough will be maintained over the eastern third of the CONUS. At the surface, low pressure off the SC coast will lift north/northeast. The center of the low will pass near or just offshore from the NC Outer Banks. Showers will be ongoing across the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday morning. While generally poor lower-level lapse rates and little heating will limited instability, some modest midlevel lapse rates will support modest elevated instability, and isolated thunderstorms are possible across coastal NC. A surface cold front will move offshore the Mid-Atlantic during the evening/overnight hours. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Across the West, a weak upper shortwave trough will quickly move across the Pacific Northwest. A few lightning flashes are possible offshore from the northern CA/OR/WA coasts, but overall chances for inland lightning appear lower than previously indicated given meager elevated instability. ..Leitman.. 12/26/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone will be centered over the Mid-MS Valley on Wednesday. This system and associated upper trough will move only modestly eastward through the period. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the upper low/trough will be maintained over the eastern third of the CONUS. At the surface, low pressure off the SC coast will lift north/northeast. The center of the low will pass near or just offshore from the NC Outer Banks. Showers will be ongoing across the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday morning. While generally poor lower-level lapse rates and little heating will limited instability, some modest midlevel lapse rates will support modest elevated instability, and isolated thunderstorms are possible across coastal NC. A surface cold front will move offshore the Mid-Atlantic during the evening/overnight hours. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Across the West, a weak upper shortwave trough will quickly move across the Pacific Northwest. A few lightning flashes are possible offshore from the northern CA/OR/WA coasts, but overall chances for inland lightning appear lower than previously indicated given meager elevated instability. ..Leitman.. 12/26/2023 Read more

MD 2347 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 2347 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Areas affected...Southeast North Dakota...much of South Dakota...far western Minnesota...and central Nebraska Concerning...Blizzard Valid 260156Z - 260630Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow, freezing rain and blizzard conditions will continue into the overnight hours across portions of the central and northern Plains. DISCUSSION...A surface low has drifted northwest across Iowa through the day today and the 01Z surface analysis shows the surface low southeast of Sioux Falls, SD with a central pressure around 1001mb as it continues to occlude. Strong easterly warm air advection to the north of this surface low continues, and has somewhat overperformed from what most model guidance has shown. Therefore, most areas which were seeing freezing rain earlier have now warmed above freezing. The only exceptions is a confined area across eastern South Dakota and far southeast North Dakota where some freezing rain continues. Elsewhere, a broad region of light to moderate snow continues within a broad deformation zone from far western Minnesota to northern Kansas. Within this, some heavier snow is occurring. Especially across South Dakota and southern North Dakota. Winds are quite strong in most of the deformation zone (20 to 30 knot sustained winds with gusts to 30-45 knots). However, observations show greater visibility restriction farther west where temperatures are in the low 20s and snow ratios are likely higher. This entire region of wintry precipitation will drift slowly east into the overnight hours as the surface low continues to move northwest. ..Bentley.. 12/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...GID...BIS...LBF...UNR...BOU... CYS... LAT...LON 40879898 40609958 40530048 40650127 40800181 41090236 42470302 44100338 44970303 46270101 47679779 47739624 47159611 46399671 44539725 42799855 41829875 40879898 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large, vertically stacked cyclone over the lower MO Valley will slowly move east during the period. An occluded front will slowly move across the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The southern portion of the boundary will undergo frontolysis across the Southeast. Ahead of the cold front, showers and thunderstorms will primarily be relegated to be over the Gulf Stream waters east of FL and the GA coast. Weak instability developing during the day over the Carolinas northward into the central Appalachians may yield sporadic general thunderstorms within a moist conveyor. The limited instability will likely preclude a severe risk with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/26/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large, vertically stacked cyclone over the lower MO Valley will slowly move east during the period. An occluded front will slowly move across the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The southern portion of the boundary will undergo frontolysis across the Southeast. Ahead of the cold front, showers and thunderstorms will primarily be relegated to be over the Gulf Stream waters east of FL and the GA coast. Weak instability developing during the day over the Carolinas northward into the central Appalachians may yield sporadic general thunderstorms within a moist conveyor. The limited instability will likely preclude a severe risk with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/26/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large, vertically stacked cyclone over the lower MO Valley will slowly move east during the period. An occluded front will slowly move across the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The southern portion of the boundary will undergo frontolysis across the Southeast. Ahead of the cold front, showers and thunderstorms will primarily be relegated to be over the Gulf Stream waters east of FL and the GA coast. Weak instability developing during the day over the Carolinas northward into the central Appalachians may yield sporadic general thunderstorms within a moist conveyor. The limited instability will likely preclude a severe risk with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/26/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large, vertically stacked cyclone over the lower MO Valley will slowly move east during the period. An occluded front will slowly move across the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The southern portion of the boundary will undergo frontolysis across the Southeast. Ahead of the cold front, showers and thunderstorms will primarily be relegated to be over the Gulf Stream waters east of FL and the GA coast. Weak instability developing during the day over the Carolinas northward into the central Appalachians may yield sporadic general thunderstorms within a moist conveyor. The limited instability will likely preclude a severe risk with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/26/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large, vertically stacked cyclone over the lower MO Valley will slowly move east during the period. An occluded front will slowly move across the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The southern portion of the boundary will undergo frontolysis across the Southeast. Ahead of the cold front, showers and thunderstorms will primarily be relegated to be over the Gulf Stream waters east of FL and the GA coast. Weak instability developing during the day over the Carolinas northward into the central Appalachians may yield sporadic general thunderstorms within a moist conveyor. The limited instability will likely preclude a severe risk with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/26/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large, vertically stacked cyclone over the lower MO Valley will slowly move east during the period. An occluded front will slowly move across the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The southern portion of the boundary will undergo frontolysis across the Southeast. Ahead of the cold front, showers and thunderstorms will primarily be relegated to be over the Gulf Stream waters east of FL and the GA coast. Weak instability developing during the day over the Carolinas northward into the central Appalachians may yield sporadic general thunderstorms within a moist conveyor. The limited instability will likely preclude a severe risk with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/26/2023 Read more