Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along parts of the northern/central California coast on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough oriented from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico will progress eastward toward the Atlantic coast on Friday. Meanwhile, the western upper ridge will shift east toward the Rockies and adjacent High Plains vicinity as an upper trough approaches the Pacific coast late in the period. Stable conditions and a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will preclude thunderstorm activity for most of the CONUS. However, deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the Pacific trough will support moistening midlevels along the CA coast. Somewhat cool midlevels and modest lapse rates will be sufficient for weak destabilization during the evening and overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along parts of the central/northern CA coastal vicinity, mainly after 00z. ..Leitman.. 12/27/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Cool temperatures and moist fuels across most of the CONUS will limit fire weather concerns on Thursday, as a closed upper low slowly drifts east across the Ohio Valley. ..Bentley.. 12/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Cool temperatures and moist fuels across most of the CONUS will limit fire weather concerns on Thursday, as a closed upper low slowly drifts east across the Ohio Valley. ..Bentley.. 12/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Cool temperatures and moist fuels across most of the CONUS will limit fire weather concerns on Thursday, as a closed upper low slowly drifts east across the Ohio Valley. ..Bentley.. 12/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Cool temperatures and moist fuels across most of the CONUS will limit fire weather concerns on Thursday, as a closed upper low slowly drifts east across the Ohio Valley. ..Bentley.. 12/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Cool temperatures and moist fuels across most of the CONUS will limit fire weather concerns on Thursday, as a closed upper low slowly drifts east across the Ohio Valley. ..Bentley.. 12/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone, centered over the central CONUS will slowly drift east during the period today. East of the upper low, warm/moist conditions have spread up the East Coast. Meanwhile, high pressure has brought cool conditions to the Intermountain West. Cool and/or moist conditions across most of the CONUS, combined with moist fuels will preclude the fire-weather threat today. ..Bentley.. 12/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone, centered over the central CONUS will slowly drift east during the period today. East of the upper low, warm/moist conditions have spread up the East Coast. Meanwhile, high pressure has brought cool conditions to the Intermountain West. Cool and/or moist conditions across most of the CONUS, combined with moist fuels will preclude the fire-weather threat today. ..Bentley.. 12/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone, centered over the central CONUS will slowly drift east during the period today. East of the upper low, warm/moist conditions have spread up the East Coast. Meanwhile, high pressure has brought cool conditions to the Intermountain West. Cool and/or moist conditions across most of the CONUS, combined with moist fuels will preclude the fire-weather threat today. ..Bentley.. 12/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone, centered over the central CONUS will slowly drift east during the period today. East of the upper low, warm/moist conditions have spread up the East Coast. Meanwhile, high pressure has brought cool conditions to the Intermountain West. Cool and/or moist conditions across most of the CONUS, combined with moist fuels will preclude the fire-weather threat today. ..Bentley.. 12/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone, centered over the central CONUS will slowly drift east during the period today. East of the upper low, warm/moist conditions have spread up the East Coast. Meanwhile, high pressure has brought cool conditions to the Intermountain West. Cool and/or moist conditions across most of the CONUS, combined with moist fuels will preclude the fire-weather threat today. ..Bentley.. 12/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the Lower 48 states on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone centered over the Mid-MS Valley, and attendant trough extending well south over the Gulf of Mexico will pivot slowly east on Thursday. A reinforcing shortwave trough rotating through the back side of this system will maintain general troughing over the CONUS east of the MS River into early Friday. At the surface, low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will lift northeast offshore from the Northeast coast. An attendant cold front will push further offshore over the Atlantic while the southern extent of the front pushes deep into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong high pressure building over the Rockies and Plains, along with a dearth of boundary-layer moisture, will preclude thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will encompass the western half of the CONUS with most dry conditions expected beneath the influence of the ridge. ..Leitman.. 12/27/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the Lower 48 states on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone centered over the Mid-MS Valley, and attendant trough extending well south over the Gulf of Mexico will pivot slowly east on Thursday. A reinforcing shortwave trough rotating through the back side of this system will maintain general troughing over the CONUS east of the MS River into early Friday. At the surface, low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will lift northeast offshore from the Northeast coast. An attendant cold front will push further offshore over the Atlantic while the southern extent of the front pushes deep into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong high pressure building over the Rockies and Plains, along with a dearth of boundary-layer moisture, will preclude thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will encompass the western half of the CONUS with most dry conditions expected beneath the influence of the ridge. ..Leitman.. 12/27/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the Lower 48 states on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone centered over the Mid-MS Valley, and attendant trough extending well south over the Gulf of Mexico will pivot slowly east on Thursday. A reinforcing shortwave trough rotating through the back side of this system will maintain general troughing over the CONUS east of the MS River into early Friday. At the surface, low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will lift northeast offshore from the Northeast coast. An attendant cold front will push further offshore over the Atlantic while the southern extent of the front pushes deep into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong high pressure building over the Rockies and Plains, along with a dearth of boundary-layer moisture, will preclude thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will encompass the western half of the CONUS with most dry conditions expected beneath the influence of the ridge. ..Leitman.. 12/27/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the Lower 48 states on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A large upper cyclone centered over the Mid-MS Valley, and attendant trough extending well south over the Gulf of Mexico will pivot slowly east on Thursday. A reinforcing shortwave trough rotating through the back side of this system will maintain general troughing over the CONUS east of the MS River into early Friday. At the surface, low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will lift northeast offshore from the Northeast coast. An attendant cold front will push further offshore over the Atlantic while the southern extent of the front pushes deep into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong high pressure building over the Rockies and Plains, along with a dearth of boundary-layer moisture, will preclude thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will encompass the western half of the CONUS with most dry conditions expected beneath the influence of the ridge. ..Leitman.. 12/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A large deep-layer cyclone centered over the mid MS Valley will slowly move east through tonight. An embedded mid-level disturbance will rotate through the outer orbit of the large-scale cyclone and move from the lower MS Valley to Long Island during the period. Weak buoyancy will primarily be relegated to the coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic states, but it may develop as far inland in pockets across the central Appalachians during the day, as a surface low migrates north near the coast. As a result, scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms are possible. The limited instability will likely preclude severe thunderstorm activity. Farther west, a potent mid-level trough/closed low west of the Pacific Northwest will feature an impulse moving into the coastal areas of northern CA and coastal OR/WA during the day. Cold 500-mb temperatures will probably yield 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE and a few lightning flashes with the deeper convection as it moves ashore. Elsewhere, tranquil conditions will prevail across a large part of the Interior West across the southern U.S. and influenced by surface high pressure. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A large deep-layer cyclone centered over the mid MS Valley will slowly move east through tonight. An embedded mid-level disturbance will rotate through the outer orbit of the large-scale cyclone and move from the lower MS Valley to Long Island during the period. Weak buoyancy will primarily be relegated to the coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic states, but it may develop as far inland in pockets across the central Appalachians during the day, as a surface low migrates north near the coast. As a result, scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms are possible. The limited instability will likely preclude severe thunderstorm activity. Farther west, a potent mid-level trough/closed low west of the Pacific Northwest will feature an impulse moving into the coastal areas of northern CA and coastal OR/WA during the day. Cold 500-mb temperatures will probably yield 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE and a few lightning flashes with the deeper convection as it moves ashore. Elsewhere, tranquil conditions will prevail across a large part of the Interior West across the southern U.S. and influenced by surface high pressure. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A large deep-layer cyclone centered over the mid MS Valley will slowly move east through tonight. An embedded mid-level disturbance will rotate through the outer orbit of the large-scale cyclone and move from the lower MS Valley to Long Island during the period. Weak buoyancy will primarily be relegated to the coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic states, but it may develop as far inland in pockets across the central Appalachians during the day, as a surface low migrates north near the coast. As a result, scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms are possible. The limited instability will likely preclude severe thunderstorm activity. Farther west, a potent mid-level trough/closed low west of the Pacific Northwest will feature an impulse moving into the coastal areas of northern CA and coastal OR/WA during the day. Cold 500-mb temperatures will probably yield 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE and a few lightning flashes with the deeper convection as it moves ashore. Elsewhere, tranquil conditions will prevail across a large part of the Interior West across the southern U.S. and influenced by surface high pressure. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A large deep-layer cyclone centered over the mid MS Valley will slowly move east through tonight. An embedded mid-level disturbance will rotate through the outer orbit of the large-scale cyclone and move from the lower MS Valley to Long Island during the period. Weak buoyancy will primarily be relegated to the coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic states, but it may develop as far inland in pockets across the central Appalachians during the day, as a surface low migrates north near the coast. As a result, scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms are possible. The limited instability will likely preclude severe thunderstorm activity. Farther west, a potent mid-level trough/closed low west of the Pacific Northwest will feature an impulse moving into the coastal areas of northern CA and coastal OR/WA during the day. Cold 500-mb temperatures will probably yield 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE and a few lightning flashes with the deeper convection as it moves ashore. Elsewhere, tranquil conditions will prevail across a large part of the Interior West across the southern U.S. and influenced by surface high pressure. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/27/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2023 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a large gyre centered over the lower MO Valley with weak mid-level ridges located along the East and West coasts. A moist/warm conveyor is located over the Carolinas northward into the upper OH Valley, where scant buoyancy was observed (i.e., Carolinas per 00z raob data) or forecast later tonight. This weak instability may lead to a few widely spaced, isolated lightning flashes tonight over the Carolinas, and perhaps as far north as the upper OH Valley. Elsewhere, cool and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS. ..Smith.. 12/27/2023 Read more