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1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023
Valid 271700Z - 281200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous
discussion below.
..Weinman.. 12/27/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023/
...Synopsis...
A large upper cyclone, centered over the central CONUS will slowly
drift east during the period today. East of the upper low,
warm/moist conditions have spread up the East Coast. Meanwhile, high
pressure has brought cool conditions to the Intermountain West. Cool
and/or moist conditions across most of the CONUS, combined with
moist fuels will preclude the fire-weather threat today.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023
Valid 271700Z - 281200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous
discussion below.
..Weinman.. 12/27/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023/
...Synopsis...
A large upper cyclone, centered over the central CONUS will slowly
drift east during the period today. East of the upper low,
warm/moist conditions have spread up the East Coast. Meanwhile, high
pressure has brought cool conditions to the Intermountain West. Cool
and/or moist conditions across most of the CONUS, combined with
moist fuels will preclude the fire-weather threat today.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023
Valid 271700Z - 281200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous
discussion below.
..Weinman.. 12/27/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023/
...Synopsis...
A large upper cyclone, centered over the central CONUS will slowly
drift east during the period today. East of the upper low,
warm/moist conditions have spread up the East Coast. Meanwhile, high
pressure has brought cool conditions to the Intermountain West. Cool
and/or moist conditions across most of the CONUS, combined with
moist fuels will preclude the fire-weather threat today.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023
Valid 271700Z - 281200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous
discussion below.
..Weinman.. 12/27/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023/
...Synopsis...
A large upper cyclone, centered over the central CONUS will slowly
drift east during the period today. East of the upper low,
warm/moist conditions have spread up the East Coast. Meanwhile, high
pressure has brought cool conditions to the Intermountain West. Cool
and/or moist conditions across most of the CONUS, combined with
moist fuels will preclude the fire-weather threat today.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023
Valid 271700Z - 281200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous
discussion below.
..Weinman.. 12/27/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023/
...Synopsis...
A large upper cyclone, centered over the central CONUS will slowly
drift east during the period today. East of the upper low,
warm/moist conditions have spread up the East Coast. Meanwhile, high
pressure has brought cool conditions to the Intermountain West. Cool
and/or moist conditions across most of the CONUS, combined with
moist fuels will preclude the fire-weather threat today.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023
Valid 271700Z - 281200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous
discussion below.
..Weinman.. 12/27/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1241 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023/
...Synopsis...
A large upper cyclone, centered over the central CONUS will slowly
drift east during the period today. East of the upper low,
warm/moist conditions have spread up the East Coast. Meanwhile, high
pressure has brought cool conditions to the Intermountain West. Cool
and/or moist conditions across most of the CONUS, combined with
moist fuels will preclude the fire-weather threat today.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Mid Atlantic Region...
A large upper low remains dominant over the central/eastern CONUS,
with a deep warm-conveyor regime over the Mid-Atlantic region.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon from eastern NC northward across the Chesapeake Bay area
into PA/NJ. A cool and marginally unstable boundary-layer will
preclude a risk of severe storms.
...FL Keys...
A southern-stream shortwave trough over northern Mexico will track
across the Gulf of Mexico and begin affecting the FL Keys after
midnight. This may result in isolated thunderstorms over the lower
Keys or nearby shelf waters.
...West Coast...
A few lightning flashes are possible this afternoon and evening over
coastal WA/OR and parts of northern/central CA as a cold front moves
ashore.
..Hart/Thornton.. 12/27/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Mid Atlantic Region...
A large upper low remains dominant over the central/eastern CONUS,
with a deep warm-conveyor regime over the Mid-Atlantic region.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon from eastern NC northward across the Chesapeake Bay area
into PA/NJ. A cool and marginally unstable boundary-layer will
preclude a risk of severe storms.
...FL Keys...
A southern-stream shortwave trough over northern Mexico will track
across the Gulf of Mexico and begin affecting the FL Keys after
midnight. This may result in isolated thunderstorms over the lower
Keys or nearby shelf waters.
...West Coast...
A few lightning flashes are possible this afternoon and evening over
coastal WA/OR and parts of northern/central CA as a cold front moves
ashore.
..Hart/Thornton.. 12/27/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Mid Atlantic Region...
A large upper low remains dominant over the central/eastern CONUS,
with a deep warm-conveyor regime over the Mid-Atlantic region.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon from eastern NC northward across the Chesapeake Bay area
into PA/NJ. A cool and marginally unstable boundary-layer will
preclude a risk of severe storms.
...FL Keys...
A southern-stream shortwave trough over northern Mexico will track
across the Gulf of Mexico and begin affecting the FL Keys after
midnight. This may result in isolated thunderstorms over the lower
Keys or nearby shelf waters.
...West Coast...
A few lightning flashes are possible this afternoon and evening over
coastal WA/OR and parts of northern/central CA as a cold front moves
ashore.
..Hart/Thornton.. 12/27/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Mid Atlantic Region...
A large upper low remains dominant over the central/eastern CONUS,
with a deep warm-conveyor regime over the Mid-Atlantic region.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon from eastern NC northward across the Chesapeake Bay area
into PA/NJ. A cool and marginally unstable boundary-layer will
preclude a risk of severe storms.
...FL Keys...
A southern-stream shortwave trough over northern Mexico will track
across the Gulf of Mexico and begin affecting the FL Keys after
midnight. This may result in isolated thunderstorms over the lower
Keys or nearby shelf waters.
...West Coast...
A few lightning flashes are possible this afternoon and evening over
coastal WA/OR and parts of northern/central CA as a cold front moves
ashore.
..Hart/Thornton.. 12/27/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Mid Atlantic Region...
A large upper low remains dominant over the central/eastern CONUS,
with a deep warm-conveyor regime over the Mid-Atlantic region.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon from eastern NC northward across the Chesapeake Bay area
into PA/NJ. A cool and marginally unstable boundary-layer will
preclude a risk of severe storms.
...FL Keys...
A southern-stream shortwave trough over northern Mexico will track
across the Gulf of Mexico and begin affecting the FL Keys after
midnight. This may result in isolated thunderstorms over the lower
Keys or nearby shelf waters.
...West Coast...
A few lightning flashes are possible this afternoon and evening over
coastal WA/OR and parts of northern/central CA as a cold front moves
ashore.
..Hart/Thornton.. 12/27/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Mid Atlantic Region...
A large upper low remains dominant over the central/eastern CONUS,
with a deep warm-conveyor regime over the Mid-Atlantic region.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon from eastern NC northward across the Chesapeake Bay area
into PA/NJ. A cool and marginally unstable boundary-layer will
preclude a risk of severe storms.
...FL Keys...
A southern-stream shortwave trough over northern Mexico will track
across the Gulf of Mexico and begin affecting the FL Keys after
midnight. This may result in isolated thunderstorms over the lower
Keys or nearby shelf waters.
...West Coast...
A few lightning flashes are possible this afternoon and evening over
coastal WA/OR and parts of northern/central CA as a cold front moves
ashore.
..Hart/Thornton.. 12/27/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023
Valid 271300Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, the dominant feature over the central/eastern
CONUS remains a large synoptic-scale cyclone, initially centered
over northwestern MO. Associated cyclonic flow extends from the
Four Corners region to the central/southern Appalachians, and from
the Upper Great Lakes to northern MX. Its 500-mb low is expected to
pivot southward then eastward over southern IL by the end of the
period. A broad warm conveyor lingers well east of the low, near
the central Atlantic Coast and northward over the central
Appalachians region. Weak, elevated buoyancy will decrease
northward, with 12Z soundings showing MUCAPE around 600 J/kg at MHX,
but less than 300 J/kg at RNK. This may support isolated, episodic
thunder in a band of embedded convection moving eastward to
northeastward over the area today into this evening.
The surface cold front is offshore from the southern Atlantic Coast,
though a frontal-wave low -- analyzed at 11Z just offshore from CHS
-- should move northeastward near the NC coastline through this
evening. However, favorable warm-sector buoyancy/shear for severe
is expected to stay over the Atlantic. A temporarily stalled
segment of the low-level frontal zone may undergo wave cyclogenesis
over the southeastern Gulf this evening and tonight, as a weak
southern-stream perturbation approaches from MX. Sufficient lift,
elevated instability and moisture should exist over Gulf waters to
support thunderstorms over the central/east-central Gulf today and
the east-central/southeastern Gulf tonight. Some of this activity
may reach portions of the FL Keys before 12Z tomorrow.
Farther west, moisture-channel imagery showed a synoptic-scale
cyclone over the northeast Pacific, centered near 43N137W. This
feature is expected to move northeastward and weaken today, while
remaining offshore. However, a basal shortwave trough should pivot
northeastward across the coastal Pacific Northwest. Related
DCVA/cooling aloft may provide sufficient destabilization, atop weak
low/middle-level moisture, to support thunder potential from
portions of northern CA up the coast of OR/WA.
..Edwards/Dean.. 12/27/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023
Valid 271300Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, the dominant feature over the central/eastern
CONUS remains a large synoptic-scale cyclone, initially centered
over northwestern MO. Associated cyclonic flow extends from the
Four Corners region to the central/southern Appalachians, and from
the Upper Great Lakes to northern MX. Its 500-mb low is expected to
pivot southward then eastward over southern IL by the end of the
period. A broad warm conveyor lingers well east of the low, near
the central Atlantic Coast and northward over the central
Appalachians region. Weak, elevated buoyancy will decrease
northward, with 12Z soundings showing MUCAPE around 600 J/kg at MHX,
but less than 300 J/kg at RNK. This may support isolated, episodic
thunder in a band of embedded convection moving eastward to
northeastward over the area today into this evening.
The surface cold front is offshore from the southern Atlantic Coast,
though a frontal-wave low -- analyzed at 11Z just offshore from CHS
-- should move northeastward near the NC coastline through this
evening. However, favorable warm-sector buoyancy/shear for severe
is expected to stay over the Atlantic. A temporarily stalled
segment of the low-level frontal zone may undergo wave cyclogenesis
over the southeastern Gulf this evening and tonight, as a weak
southern-stream perturbation approaches from MX. Sufficient lift,
elevated instability and moisture should exist over Gulf waters to
support thunderstorms over the central/east-central Gulf today and
the east-central/southeastern Gulf tonight. Some of this activity
may reach portions of the FL Keys before 12Z tomorrow.
Farther west, moisture-channel imagery showed a synoptic-scale
cyclone over the northeast Pacific, centered near 43N137W. This
feature is expected to move northeastward and weaken today, while
remaining offshore. However, a basal shortwave trough should pivot
northeastward across the coastal Pacific Northwest. Related
DCVA/cooling aloft may provide sufficient destabilization, atop weak
low/middle-level moisture, to support thunder potential from
portions of northern CA up the coast of OR/WA.
..Edwards/Dean.. 12/27/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023
Valid 271300Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, the dominant feature over the central/eastern
CONUS remains a large synoptic-scale cyclone, initially centered
over northwestern MO. Associated cyclonic flow extends from the
Four Corners region to the central/southern Appalachians, and from
the Upper Great Lakes to northern MX. Its 500-mb low is expected to
pivot southward then eastward over southern IL by the end of the
period. A broad warm conveyor lingers well east of the low, near
the central Atlantic Coast and northward over the central
Appalachians region. Weak, elevated buoyancy will decrease
northward, with 12Z soundings showing MUCAPE around 600 J/kg at MHX,
but less than 300 J/kg at RNK. This may support isolated, episodic
thunder in a band of embedded convection moving eastward to
northeastward over the area today into this evening.
The surface cold front is offshore from the southern Atlantic Coast,
though a frontal-wave low -- analyzed at 11Z just offshore from CHS
-- should move northeastward near the NC coastline through this
evening. However, favorable warm-sector buoyancy/shear for severe
is expected to stay over the Atlantic. A temporarily stalled
segment of the low-level frontal zone may undergo wave cyclogenesis
over the southeastern Gulf this evening and tonight, as a weak
southern-stream perturbation approaches from MX. Sufficient lift,
elevated instability and moisture should exist over Gulf waters to
support thunderstorms over the central/east-central Gulf today and
the east-central/southeastern Gulf tonight. Some of this activity
may reach portions of the FL Keys before 12Z tomorrow.
Farther west, moisture-channel imagery showed a synoptic-scale
cyclone over the northeast Pacific, centered near 43N137W. This
feature is expected to move northeastward and weaken today, while
remaining offshore. However, a basal shortwave trough should pivot
northeastward across the coastal Pacific Northwest. Related
DCVA/cooling aloft may provide sufficient destabilization, atop weak
low/middle-level moisture, to support thunder potential from
portions of northern CA up the coast of OR/WA.
..Edwards/Dean.. 12/27/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023
Valid 271300Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, the dominant feature over the central/eastern
CONUS remains a large synoptic-scale cyclone, initially centered
over northwestern MO. Associated cyclonic flow extends from the
Four Corners region to the central/southern Appalachians, and from
the Upper Great Lakes to northern MX. Its 500-mb low is expected to
pivot southward then eastward over southern IL by the end of the
period. A broad warm conveyor lingers well east of the low, near
the central Atlantic Coast and northward over the central
Appalachians region. Weak, elevated buoyancy will decrease
northward, with 12Z soundings showing MUCAPE around 600 J/kg at MHX,
but less than 300 J/kg at RNK. This may support isolated, episodic
thunder in a band of embedded convection moving eastward to
northeastward over the area today into this evening.
The surface cold front is offshore from the southern Atlantic Coast,
though a frontal-wave low -- analyzed at 11Z just offshore from CHS
-- should move northeastward near the NC coastline through this
evening. However, favorable warm-sector buoyancy/shear for severe
is expected to stay over the Atlantic. A temporarily stalled
segment of the low-level frontal zone may undergo wave cyclogenesis
over the southeastern Gulf this evening and tonight, as a weak
southern-stream perturbation approaches from MX. Sufficient lift,
elevated instability and moisture should exist over Gulf waters to
support thunderstorms over the central/east-central Gulf today and
the east-central/southeastern Gulf tonight. Some of this activity
may reach portions of the FL Keys before 12Z tomorrow.
Farther west, moisture-channel imagery showed a synoptic-scale
cyclone over the northeast Pacific, centered near 43N137W. This
feature is expected to move northeastward and weaken today, while
remaining offshore. However, a basal shortwave trough should pivot
northeastward across the coastal Pacific Northwest. Related
DCVA/cooling aloft may provide sufficient destabilization, atop weak
low/middle-level moisture, to support thunder potential from
portions of northern CA up the coast of OR/WA.
..Edwards/Dean.. 12/27/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023
Valid 271300Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, the dominant feature over the central/eastern
CONUS remains a large synoptic-scale cyclone, initially centered
over northwestern MO. Associated cyclonic flow extends from the
Four Corners region to the central/southern Appalachians, and from
the Upper Great Lakes to northern MX. Its 500-mb low is expected to
pivot southward then eastward over southern IL by the end of the
period. A broad warm conveyor lingers well east of the low, near
the central Atlantic Coast and northward over the central
Appalachians region. Weak, elevated buoyancy will decrease
northward, with 12Z soundings showing MUCAPE around 600 J/kg at MHX,
but less than 300 J/kg at RNK. This may support isolated, episodic
thunder in a band of embedded convection moving eastward to
northeastward over the area today into this evening.
The surface cold front is offshore from the southern Atlantic Coast,
though a frontal-wave low -- analyzed at 11Z just offshore from CHS
-- should move northeastward near the NC coastline through this
evening. However, favorable warm-sector buoyancy/shear for severe
is expected to stay over the Atlantic. A temporarily stalled
segment of the low-level frontal zone may undergo wave cyclogenesis
over the southeastern Gulf this evening and tonight, as a weak
southern-stream perturbation approaches from MX. Sufficient lift,
elevated instability and moisture should exist over Gulf waters to
support thunderstorms over the central/east-central Gulf today and
the east-central/southeastern Gulf tonight. Some of this activity
may reach portions of the FL Keys before 12Z tomorrow.
Farther west, moisture-channel imagery showed a synoptic-scale
cyclone over the northeast Pacific, centered near 43N137W. This
feature is expected to move northeastward and weaken today, while
remaining offshore. However, a basal shortwave trough should pivot
northeastward across the coastal Pacific Northwest. Related
DCVA/cooling aloft may provide sufficient destabilization, atop weak
low/middle-level moisture, to support thunder potential from
portions of northern CA up the coast of OR/WA.
..Edwards/Dean.. 12/27/2023
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A mostly dry and stable boundary layer will preclude much
thunderstorm activity across the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period.
The exception will be around Day 6/Mon. During this time, an upper
shortwave trough over the Southwest will eject eastward across the
southern Plains and toward the Gulf Coast states. A surface low will
develop near the TX coast in response to the approaching upper wave
and shift east across the Gulf. Modest moisture return may impinge
on parts of the western/central Gulf coast ahead of the surface low
and a southeastward-advancing cold front. Isolated thunderstorms may
occur, but higher-quality moisture and thermodynamics will likely
remain offshore, precluding severe potential.
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A mostly dry and stable boundary layer will preclude much
thunderstorm activity across the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period.
The exception will be around Day 6/Mon. During this time, an upper
shortwave trough over the Southwest will eject eastward across the
southern Plains and toward the Gulf Coast states. A surface low will
develop near the TX coast in response to the approaching upper wave
and shift east across the Gulf. Modest moisture return may impinge
on parts of the western/central Gulf coast ahead of the surface low
and a southeastward-advancing cold front. Isolated thunderstorms may
occur, but higher-quality moisture and thermodynamics will likely
remain offshore, precluding severe potential.
Read more
1 year 7 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 AM CST Wed Dec 27 2023
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A mostly dry and stable boundary layer will preclude much
thunderstorm activity across the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period.
The exception will be around Day 6/Mon. During this time, an upper
shortwave trough over the Southwest will eject eastward across the
southern Plains and toward the Gulf Coast states. A surface low will
develop near the TX coast in response to the approaching upper wave
and shift east across the Gulf. Modest moisture return may impinge
on parts of the western/central Gulf coast ahead of the surface low
and a southeastward-advancing cold front. Isolated thunderstorms may
occur, but higher-quality moisture and thermodynamics will likely
remain offshore, precluding severe potential.
Read more
Checked
5 years 10 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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