Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A large, vertically stacked cyclone over the lower MO Valley will slowly move east during the period. An occluded front will slowly move across the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The southern portion of the boundary will undergo frontolysis across the Southeast. Ahead of the cold front, showers and thunderstorms will primarily be relegated to be over the Gulf Stream waters east of FL and the GA coast. Weak instability developing during the day over the Carolinas northward into the central Appalachians may yield sporadic general thunderstorms within a moist conveyor. The limited instability will likely preclude a severe risk with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Bentley.. 12/26/2023 Read more

MD 2346 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 2346 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Areas affected...Portions of South-Central North Dakota...central and eastern South Dakota...and North Central Nebraska Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 252131Z - 260130Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow possible this evening, with blizzard conditions at times from south-central North Dakota southward into central South Dakota and north-central Nebraska. DISCUSSION...A deep surface low located across western Iowa has begun to occlude this afternoon while bringing warm and moist air across Iowa and Minnesota into the Dakotas. Aloft, a mid-level low is stacked back to the southwest with very cold air being funneled in by strong northwesterly flow across the High Plains into the Central Plains. Areas of moderate to heavy snow have been ongoing across eastern Nebraska and eastern South Dakota, with a transition to accumulating ice/freezing rain to the northeast. Due to the strength of the surface low, background flow has increased with the strong mass response with surface winds sustained at 25-30 mph gusting as high as 40-50 mph. Blizzard conditions have been observed across central South Dakota with visibility around 1/4 mi and sustained winds at 20-30 mph gusting up to 50 mph. As the surface low shifts back westward through the evening, strengthening mid-level flow around 40-50 kts will overspread portions of the Dakotas into western Nebraska. Warm air overspreading eastern North Dakota into northeastern South Dakota will lead to a transition from snow to freezing rain with potential for ice accumulations. The increased upper-level support across the Dakotas into far northern Nebraska will aid in formation of snow bands capable of 1"+/hr rates along with potential for blowing snow and reduced visibility below 1/4 mi with continued strong surface winds. These conditions will continue to spread westward as the low shifts west through the late evening and overnight. ..Thornton/Hart.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 42480106 43430210 43880217 44520205 45310195 45890125 46919946 47049925 47499717 46689638 46029630 44159761 43679792 43159838 42649882 42239942 42209951 42160028 42480106 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A large deep-layer cyclone will become vertically stacked and be centered over the north-central Great Plains through tonight. An occluded cyclone near the IA/MN/NE border will feature a boundary arcing from the Upper Midwest southeastward into OH Valley, with the southern portion of the boundary continuing to progress east as a cold front across the northeast Gulf Coast states tonight. A few widely spaced showers/thunderstorms are possible from GA/SC into the southern Appalachians this evening as well as a low risk for thunderstorm activity across the southern FL Peninsula into the FL Straits. Scant to weak buoyancy sampled by the 00z southeastern U.S. raobs indicates thunderstorms will likely remain weak through tonight. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will occur in areas displaced from precipitation associated with the deep-layer cyclone over the central U.S., and an approaching shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Smith.. 12/26/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A large deep-layer cyclone will become vertically stacked and be centered over the north-central Great Plains through tonight. An occluded cyclone near the IA/MN/NE border will feature a boundary arcing from the Upper Midwest southeastward into OH Valley, with the southern portion of the boundary continuing to progress east as a cold front across the northeast Gulf Coast states tonight. A few widely spaced showers/thunderstorms are possible from GA/SC into the southern Appalachians this evening as well as a low risk for thunderstorm activity across the southern FL Peninsula into the FL Straits. Scant to weak buoyancy sampled by the 00z southeastern U.S. raobs indicates thunderstorms will likely remain weak through tonight. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will occur in areas displaced from precipitation associated with the deep-layer cyclone over the central U.S., and an approaching shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Smith.. 12/26/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A large deep-layer cyclone will become vertically stacked and be centered over the north-central Great Plains through tonight. An occluded cyclone near the IA/MN/NE border will feature a boundary arcing from the Upper Midwest southeastward into OH Valley, with the southern portion of the boundary continuing to progress east as a cold front across the northeast Gulf Coast states tonight. A few widely spaced showers/thunderstorms are possible from GA/SC into the southern Appalachians this evening as well as a low risk for thunderstorm activity across the southern FL Peninsula into the FL Straits. Scant to weak buoyancy sampled by the 00z southeastern U.S. raobs indicates thunderstorms will likely remain weak through tonight. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will occur in areas displaced from precipitation associated with the deep-layer cyclone over the central U.S., and an approaching shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Smith.. 12/26/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A large deep-layer cyclone will become vertically stacked and be centered over the north-central Great Plains through tonight. An occluded cyclone near the IA/MN/NE border will feature a boundary arcing from the Upper Midwest southeastward into OH Valley, with the southern portion of the boundary continuing to progress east as a cold front across the northeast Gulf Coast states tonight. A few widely spaced showers/thunderstorms are possible from GA/SC into the southern Appalachians this evening as well as a low risk for thunderstorm activity across the southern FL Peninsula into the FL Straits. Scant to weak buoyancy sampled by the 00z southeastern U.S. raobs indicates thunderstorms will likely remain weak through tonight. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will occur in areas displaced from precipitation associated with the deep-layer cyclone over the central U.S., and an approaching shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Smith.. 12/26/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A large deep-layer cyclone will become vertically stacked and be centered over the north-central Great Plains through tonight. An occluded cyclone near the IA/MN/NE border will feature a boundary arcing from the Upper Midwest southeastward into OH Valley, with the southern portion of the boundary continuing to progress east as a cold front across the northeast Gulf Coast states tonight. A few widely spaced showers/thunderstorms are possible from GA/SC into the southern Appalachians this evening as well as a low risk for thunderstorm activity across the southern FL Peninsula into the FL Straits. Scant to weak buoyancy sampled by the 00z southeastern U.S. raobs indicates thunderstorms will likely remain weak through tonight. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will occur in areas displaced from precipitation associated with the deep-layer cyclone over the central U.S., and an approaching shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Smith.. 12/26/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 25 22:30:02 UTC 2023.

MD 2346 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 2346 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Areas affected...Portions of South-Central North Dakota...central and eastern South Dakota...and North Central Nebraska Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 252131Z - 260130Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow possible this evening, with blizzard conditions at times from south-central North Dakota southward into central South Dakota and north-central Nebraska. DISCUSSION...A deep surface low located across western Iowa has begun to occlude this afternoon while bringing warm and moist air across Iowa and Minnesota into the Dakotas. Aloft, a mid-level low is stacked back to the southwest with very cold air being funneled in by strong northwesterly flow across the High Plains into the Central Plains. Areas of moderate to heavy snow have been ongoing across eastern Nebraska and eastern South Dakota, with a transition to accumulating ice/freezing rain to the northeast. Due to the strength of the surface low, background flow has increased with the strong mass response with surface winds sustained at 25-30 mph gusting as high as 40-50 mph. Blizzard conditions have been observed across central South Dakota with visibility around 1/4 mi and sustained winds at 20-30 mph gusting up to 50 mph. As the surface low shifts back westward through the evening, strengthening mid-level flow around 40-50 kts will overspread portions of the Dakotas into western Nebraska. Warm air overspreading eastern North Dakota into northeastern South Dakota will lead to a transition from snow to freezing rain with potential for ice accumulations. The increased upper-level support across the Dakotas into far northern Nebraska will aid in formation of snow bands capable of 1"+/hr rates along with potential for blowing snow and reduced visibility below 1/4 mi with continued strong surface winds. These conditions will continue to spread westward as the low shifts west through the late evening and overnight. ..Thornton/Hart.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 42480106 43430210 43880217 44520205 45310195 45890125 46919946 47049925 47499717 46689638 46029630 44159761 43679792 43159838 42649882 42239942 42209951 42160028 42480106 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions is low through the extended forecast period. An expansive midlevel low will move gradually eastward from the Middle MS Valley to the central/southern Appalachians from D3/Wednesday through D5/Friday. Along the southern periphery of this feature, strong deep-layer flow will overspread the Lower MS Valley, Gulf Coast, and Southeast. This will promote locally breezy/gusty offshore flow across these areas, though generally cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. While ongoing extreme/exceptional drought suggests fuels may be locally receptive to carrying fires across the region, recent rainfall and the marginal wind/RH combination should limit most fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will mitigate fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions is low through the extended forecast period. An expansive midlevel low will move gradually eastward from the Middle MS Valley to the central/southern Appalachians from D3/Wednesday through D5/Friday. Along the southern periphery of this feature, strong deep-layer flow will overspread the Lower MS Valley, Gulf Coast, and Southeast. This will promote locally breezy/gusty offshore flow across these areas, though generally cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. While ongoing extreme/exceptional drought suggests fuels may be locally receptive to carrying fires across the region, recent rainfall and the marginal wind/RH combination should limit most fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will mitigate fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions is low through the extended forecast period. An expansive midlevel low will move gradually eastward from the Middle MS Valley to the central/southern Appalachians from D3/Wednesday through D5/Friday. Along the southern periphery of this feature, strong deep-layer flow will overspread the Lower MS Valley, Gulf Coast, and Southeast. This will promote locally breezy/gusty offshore flow across these areas, though generally cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. While ongoing extreme/exceptional drought suggests fuels may be locally receptive to carrying fires across the region, recent rainfall and the marginal wind/RH combination should limit most fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will mitigate fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions is low through the extended forecast period. An expansive midlevel low will move gradually eastward from the Middle MS Valley to the central/southern Appalachians from D3/Wednesday through D5/Friday. Along the southern periphery of this feature, strong deep-layer flow will overspread the Lower MS Valley, Gulf Coast, and Southeast. This will promote locally breezy/gusty offshore flow across these areas, though generally cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. While ongoing extreme/exceptional drought suggests fuels may be locally receptive to carrying fires across the region, recent rainfall and the marginal wind/RH combination should limit most fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will mitigate fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions is low through the extended forecast period. An expansive midlevel low will move gradually eastward from the Middle MS Valley to the central/southern Appalachians from D3/Wednesday through D5/Friday. Along the southern periphery of this feature, strong deep-layer flow will overspread the Lower MS Valley, Gulf Coast, and Southeast. This will promote locally breezy/gusty offshore flow across these areas, though generally cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. While ongoing extreme/exceptional drought suggests fuels may be locally receptive to carrying fires across the region, recent rainfall and the marginal wind/RH combination should limit most fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will mitigate fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions is low through the extended forecast period. An expansive midlevel low will move gradually eastward from the Middle MS Valley to the central/southern Appalachians from D3/Wednesday through D5/Friday. Along the southern periphery of this feature, strong deep-layer flow will overspread the Lower MS Valley, Gulf Coast, and Southeast. This will promote locally breezy/gusty offshore flow across these areas, though generally cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. While ongoing extreme/exceptional drought suggests fuels may be locally receptive to carrying fires across the region, recent rainfall and the marginal wind/RH combination should limit most fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will mitigate fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions is low through the extended forecast period. An expansive midlevel low will move gradually eastward from the Middle MS Valley to the central/southern Appalachians from D3/Wednesday through D5/Friday. Along the southern periphery of this feature, strong deep-layer flow will overspread the Lower MS Valley, Gulf Coast, and Southeast. This will promote locally breezy/gusty offshore flow across these areas, though generally cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. While ongoing extreme/exceptional drought suggests fuels may be locally receptive to carrying fires across the region, recent rainfall and the marginal wind/RH combination should limit most fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will mitigate fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 25 21:06:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Thunderstorms have largely been relegated to the Dry Tortugas vicinity this afternoon and may remain west to south of the FL Keys into this evening. Thunder potential over most of the FL Peninsula appears rather limited. Some uptick in weak, elevated convection should occur farther north in the southern Appalachians to Savannah Valley vicinity, with sporadic embedded thunderstorms possible after dusk. Poor near-surface lapse rates in conjunction with the trailing portion of 40+ kt 850-mb flow shifting northeast while shrinking in areal extent, all suggest that severe potential remains negligible. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023/ A large upper low dominates the weather across the CONUS today, while the primary weather-making shortwave rotates across the Southeast states and Mid-Atlantic region. Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the central Appalachians southward into FL today, with relatively cool/stable near-surface conditions limiting any risk of severe weather. ...FL Keys... The only area of some minor concern is over the middle and lower FL Keys. Radar/satellite imagery show a cluster of strong thunderstorms about 120nm west of Key West. This activity is moving slowly eastward, and will likely affect the Keys late this afternoon and early evening. However, low-level winds are weakening with time, and CAPE values are strong over the open waters compared to farther east near the Keys. Therefore, the risk of severe storms moving inland appears low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Thunderstorms have largely been relegated to the Dry Tortugas vicinity this afternoon and may remain west to south of the FL Keys into this evening. Thunder potential over most of the FL Peninsula appears rather limited. Some uptick in weak, elevated convection should occur farther north in the southern Appalachians to Savannah Valley vicinity, with sporadic embedded thunderstorms possible after dusk. Poor near-surface lapse rates in conjunction with the trailing portion of 40+ kt 850-mb flow shifting northeast while shrinking in areal extent, all suggest that severe potential remains negligible. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023/ A large upper low dominates the weather across the CONUS today, while the primary weather-making shortwave rotates across the Southeast states and Mid-Atlantic region. Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the central Appalachians southward into FL today, with relatively cool/stable near-surface conditions limiting any risk of severe weather. ...FL Keys... The only area of some minor concern is over the middle and lower FL Keys. Radar/satellite imagery show a cluster of strong thunderstorms about 120nm west of Key West. This activity is moving slowly eastward, and will likely affect the Keys late this afternoon and early evening. However, low-level winds are weakening with time, and CAPE values are strong over the open waters compared to farther east near the Keys. Therefore, the risk of severe storms moving inland appears low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Thunderstorms have largely been relegated to the Dry Tortugas vicinity this afternoon and may remain west to south of the FL Keys into this evening. Thunder potential over most of the FL Peninsula appears rather limited. Some uptick in weak, elevated convection should occur farther north in the southern Appalachians to Savannah Valley vicinity, with sporadic embedded thunderstorms possible after dusk. Poor near-surface lapse rates in conjunction with the trailing portion of 40+ kt 850-mb flow shifting northeast while shrinking in areal extent, all suggest that severe potential remains negligible. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023/ A large upper low dominates the weather across the CONUS today, while the primary weather-making shortwave rotates across the Southeast states and Mid-Atlantic region. Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the central Appalachians southward into FL today, with relatively cool/stable near-surface conditions limiting any risk of severe weather. ...FL Keys... The only area of some minor concern is over the middle and lower FL Keys. Radar/satellite imagery show a cluster of strong thunderstorms about 120nm west of Key West. This activity is moving slowly eastward, and will likely affect the Keys late this afternoon and early evening. However, low-level winds are weakening with time, and CAPE values are strong over the open waters compared to farther east near the Keys. Therefore, the risk of severe storms moving inland appears low. Read more