Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Thunderstorms have largely been relegated to the Dry Tortugas vicinity this afternoon and may remain west to south of the FL Keys into this evening. Thunder potential over most of the FL Peninsula appears rather limited. Some uptick in weak, elevated convection should occur farther north in the southern Appalachians to Savannah Valley vicinity, with sporadic embedded thunderstorms possible after dusk. Poor near-surface lapse rates in conjunction with the trailing portion of 40+ kt 850-mb flow shifting northeast while shrinking in areal extent, all suggest that severe potential remains negligible. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023/ A large upper low dominates the weather across the CONUS today, while the primary weather-making shortwave rotates across the Southeast states and Mid-Atlantic region. Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the central Appalachians southward into FL today, with relatively cool/stable near-surface conditions limiting any risk of severe weather. ...FL Keys... The only area of some minor concern is over the middle and lower FL Keys. Radar/satellite imagery show a cluster of strong thunderstorms about 120nm west of Key West. This activity is moving slowly eastward, and will likely affect the Keys late this afternoon and early evening. However, low-level winds are weakening with time, and CAPE values are strong over the open waters compared to farther east near the Keys. Therefore, the risk of severe storms moving inland appears low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Thunderstorms have largely been relegated to the Dry Tortugas vicinity this afternoon and may remain west to south of the FL Keys into this evening. Thunder potential over most of the FL Peninsula appears rather limited. Some uptick in weak, elevated convection should occur farther north in the southern Appalachians to Savannah Valley vicinity, with sporadic embedded thunderstorms possible after dusk. Poor near-surface lapse rates in conjunction with the trailing portion of 40+ kt 850-mb flow shifting northeast while shrinking in areal extent, all suggest that severe potential remains negligible. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023/ A large upper low dominates the weather across the CONUS today, while the primary weather-making shortwave rotates across the Southeast states and Mid-Atlantic region. Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the central Appalachians southward into FL today, with relatively cool/stable near-surface conditions limiting any risk of severe weather. ...FL Keys... The only area of some minor concern is over the middle and lower FL Keys. Radar/satellite imagery show a cluster of strong thunderstorms about 120nm west of Key West. This activity is moving slowly eastward, and will likely affect the Keys late this afternoon and early evening. However, low-level winds are weakening with time, and CAPE values are strong over the open waters compared to farther east near the Keys. Therefore, the risk of severe storms moving inland appears low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Thunderstorms have largely been relegated to the Dry Tortugas vicinity this afternoon and may remain west to south of the FL Keys into this evening. Thunder potential over most of the FL Peninsula appears rather limited. Some uptick in weak, elevated convection should occur farther north in the southern Appalachians to Savannah Valley vicinity, with sporadic embedded thunderstorms possible after dusk. Poor near-surface lapse rates in conjunction with the trailing portion of 40+ kt 850-mb flow shifting northeast while shrinking in areal extent, all suggest that severe potential remains negligible. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023/ A large upper low dominates the weather across the CONUS today, while the primary weather-making shortwave rotates across the Southeast states and Mid-Atlantic region. Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the central Appalachians southward into FL today, with relatively cool/stable near-surface conditions limiting any risk of severe weather. ...FL Keys... The only area of some minor concern is over the middle and lower FL Keys. Radar/satellite imagery show a cluster of strong thunderstorms about 120nm west of Key West. This activity is moving slowly eastward, and will likely affect the Keys late this afternoon and early evening. However, low-level winds are weakening with time, and CAPE values are strong over the open waters compared to farther east near the Keys. Therefore, the risk of severe storms moving inland appears low. Read more

MD 2345 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA...FAR WESTERN IOWA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA...FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2345 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...Far Western Iowa...Eastern South Dakota...Far Western Minnesota...Far Southeast North Dakota Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 251300Z - 251900Z SUMMARY...A mix of freezing rain and sleet will be likely this morning along a narrow corridor from far western Iowa northward into far western Minnesota. Moderate snow, with the possibility of localized heavy snow, will be likely from eastern Nebraska northward across much of east-central South Dakota. DISCUSSION...A mid-level low will steadily deepen across the central High Plains this morning, as a surface low moves northward across central Iowa. A distinct band of large-scale ascent is forecast to move around the northern periphery of the system, making conditions favorable for widespread winter precipitation. Surface temperatures will be in the upper 20s and lower 30s F from near Omaha, Nebraska northward to near Fargo, North Dakota. RAP forecast soundings along this corridor this morning have a warm layer near 850 mb, suggesting that precipitation will be mostly in the form of freezing rain, and possibly sleet. Freezing rain rates of one tenth of an inch per hour will be possible in some areas. Further west from northeast Nebraska northward across much of east-central South Dakota, forecast soundings show sub-freezing temperatures throughout the low levels. This will support moderate snow. As isentropic lift dramatically strengthens this morning, locally heavy snow will be possible in some areas. Snowfall rates could reach near one inch per hour within the heaviest of bands. ..Broyles.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...BIS... LBF... LAT...LON 42069893 41459833 40979733 40909660 41059597 41249549 41619522 42669541 43779580 44409603 45409619 46209610 46769644 46869705 46469784 45749879 44899946 44299968 43179945 42069893 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Prospects for severe thunderstorms appear negligible on Tuesday. An expansive mid/upper low centered on the NE/KS border area should drift east into northern MO through 12Z Wednesday. Thunder potential will be confined well downstream of this low, mainly within a persistent low-level warm conveyor ahead of a slowing occluded front. Modest mid-level lapse rates will maintain weak elevated buoyancy focused from the Carolinas to the south-central Appalachians, with sporadic/isolated thunderstorm development possible through the period. Meager surface-based buoyancy may develop closer to the SC coast, but a limited instability profile amid marginal deep-layer shear should preclude an appreciable severe thunderstorm threat. The bulk of deep convection will largely be confined off the south Atlantic Coast with greater offshore thunderstorm coverage during the first half of the period. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Prospects for severe thunderstorms appear negligible on Tuesday. An expansive mid/upper low centered on the NE/KS border area should drift east into northern MO through 12Z Wednesday. Thunder potential will be confined well downstream of this low, mainly within a persistent low-level warm conveyor ahead of a slowing occluded front. Modest mid-level lapse rates will maintain weak elevated buoyancy focused from the Carolinas to the south-central Appalachians, with sporadic/isolated thunderstorm development possible through the period. Meager surface-based buoyancy may develop closer to the SC coast, but a limited instability profile amid marginal deep-layer shear should preclude an appreciable severe thunderstorm threat. The bulk of deep convection will largely be confined off the south Atlantic Coast with greater offshore thunderstorm coverage during the first half of the period. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Prospects for severe thunderstorms appear negligible on Tuesday. An expansive mid/upper low centered on the NE/KS border area should drift east into northern MO through 12Z Wednesday. Thunder potential will be confined well downstream of this low, mainly within a persistent low-level warm conveyor ahead of a slowing occluded front. Modest mid-level lapse rates will maintain weak elevated buoyancy focused from the Carolinas to the south-central Appalachians, with sporadic/isolated thunderstorm development possible through the period. Meager surface-based buoyancy may develop closer to the SC coast, but a limited instability profile amid marginal deep-layer shear should preclude an appreciable severe thunderstorm threat. The bulk of deep convection will largely be confined off the south Atlantic Coast with greater offshore thunderstorm coverage during the first half of the period. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Prospects for severe thunderstorms appear negligible on Tuesday. An expansive mid/upper low centered on the NE/KS border area should drift east into northern MO through 12Z Wednesday. Thunder potential will be confined well downstream of this low, mainly within a persistent low-level warm conveyor ahead of a slowing occluded front. Modest mid-level lapse rates will maintain weak elevated buoyancy focused from the Carolinas to the south-central Appalachians, with sporadic/isolated thunderstorm development possible through the period. Meager surface-based buoyancy may develop closer to the SC coast, but a limited instability profile amid marginal deep-layer shear should preclude an appreciable severe thunderstorm threat. The bulk of deep convection will largely be confined off the south Atlantic Coast with greater offshore thunderstorm coverage during the first half of the period. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Prospects for severe thunderstorms appear negligible on Tuesday. An expansive mid/upper low centered on the NE/KS border area should drift east into northern MO through 12Z Wednesday. Thunder potential will be confined well downstream of this low, mainly within a persistent low-level warm conveyor ahead of a slowing occluded front. Modest mid-level lapse rates will maintain weak elevated buoyancy focused from the Carolinas to the south-central Appalachians, with sporadic/isolated thunderstorm development possible through the period. Meager surface-based buoyancy may develop closer to the SC coast, but a limited instability profile amid marginal deep-layer shear should preclude an appreciable severe thunderstorm threat. The bulk of deep convection will largely be confined off the south Atlantic Coast with greater offshore thunderstorm coverage during the first half of the period. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Prospects for severe thunderstorms appear negligible on Tuesday. An expansive mid/upper low centered on the NE/KS border area should drift east into northern MO through 12Z Wednesday. Thunder potential will be confined well downstream of this low, mainly within a persistent low-level warm conveyor ahead of a slowing occluded front. Modest mid-level lapse rates will maintain weak elevated buoyancy focused from the Carolinas to the south-central Appalachians, with sporadic/isolated thunderstorm development possible through the period. Meager surface-based buoyancy may develop closer to the SC coast, but a limited instability profile amid marginal deep-layer shear should preclude an appreciable severe thunderstorm threat. The bulk of deep convection will largely be confined off the south Atlantic Coast with greater offshore thunderstorm coverage during the first half of the period. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Prospects for severe thunderstorms appear negligible on Tuesday. An expansive mid/upper low centered on the NE/KS border area should drift east into northern MO through 12Z Wednesday. Thunder potential will be confined well downstream of this low, mainly within a persistent low-level warm conveyor ahead of a slowing occluded front. Modest mid-level lapse rates will maintain weak elevated buoyancy focused from the Carolinas to the south-central Appalachians, with sporadic/isolated thunderstorm development possible through the period. Meager surface-based buoyancy may develop closer to the SC coast, but a limited instability profile amid marginal deep-layer shear should preclude an appreciable severe thunderstorm threat. The bulk of deep convection will largely be confined off the south Atlantic Coast with greater offshore thunderstorm coverage during the first half of the period. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... On the backside of the expansive closed midlevel low over the central Plains, a belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow associated with the dry conveyor belt will overspread portions of the southern High Plains. From southeast NM into portions of West TX (particularly the Trans-Pecos), forecast soundings depict very dry air through the vertical profile, which coupled with surface temperatures in the 50s, will yield 10-15 percent afternoon RH. At the same time, downward momentum transport and a modest pressure gradient will favor 20+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph). While the area did receive some precipitation in the last few days, freeze-cured grasses may still support locally elevated fire-weather conditions given 1 to 2 days of drying and the dry/breezy conditions. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... Tuesday will feature a large, occluded cyclone drifting slowly east from the Plains to the Midwest. As the pressure gradient relaxes in response to the occluding cyclone, winds will also become weaker across the central CONUS. The only exception will be across portions of the Dakotas and western Nebraska where a deeply mixed boundary layer is likely and some stronger jet stream winds may mix to the surface. However, even within this region, fire-weather concerns will be quite low due to the below-freezing temperatures in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... On the backside of the expansive closed midlevel low over the central Plains, a belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow associated with the dry conveyor belt will overspread portions of the southern High Plains. From southeast NM into portions of West TX (particularly the Trans-Pecos), forecast soundings depict very dry air through the vertical profile, which coupled with surface temperatures in the 50s, will yield 10-15 percent afternoon RH. At the same time, downward momentum transport and a modest pressure gradient will favor 20+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph). While the area did receive some precipitation in the last few days, freeze-cured grasses may still support locally elevated fire-weather conditions given 1 to 2 days of drying and the dry/breezy conditions. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... Tuesday will feature a large, occluded cyclone drifting slowly east from the Plains to the Midwest. As the pressure gradient relaxes in response to the occluding cyclone, winds will also become weaker across the central CONUS. The only exception will be across portions of the Dakotas and western Nebraska where a deeply mixed boundary layer is likely and some stronger jet stream winds may mix to the surface. However, even within this region, fire-weather concerns will be quite low due to the below-freezing temperatures in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... On the backside of the expansive closed midlevel low over the central Plains, a belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow associated with the dry conveyor belt will overspread portions of the southern High Plains. From southeast NM into portions of West TX (particularly the Trans-Pecos), forecast soundings depict very dry air through the vertical profile, which coupled with surface temperatures in the 50s, will yield 10-15 percent afternoon RH. At the same time, downward momentum transport and a modest pressure gradient will favor 20+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph). While the area did receive some precipitation in the last few days, freeze-cured grasses may still support locally elevated fire-weather conditions given 1 to 2 days of drying and the dry/breezy conditions. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... Tuesday will feature a large, occluded cyclone drifting slowly east from the Plains to the Midwest. As the pressure gradient relaxes in response to the occluding cyclone, winds will also become weaker across the central CONUS. The only exception will be across portions of the Dakotas and western Nebraska where a deeply mixed boundary layer is likely and some stronger jet stream winds may mix to the surface. However, even within this region, fire-weather concerns will be quite low due to the below-freezing temperatures in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... On the backside of the expansive closed midlevel low over the central Plains, a belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow associated with the dry conveyor belt will overspread portions of the southern High Plains. From southeast NM into portions of West TX (particularly the Trans-Pecos), forecast soundings depict very dry air through the vertical profile, which coupled with surface temperatures in the 50s, will yield 10-15 percent afternoon RH. At the same time, downward momentum transport and a modest pressure gradient will favor 20+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph). While the area did receive some precipitation in the last few days, freeze-cured grasses may still support locally elevated fire-weather conditions given 1 to 2 days of drying and the dry/breezy conditions. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... Tuesday will feature a large, occluded cyclone drifting slowly east from the Plains to the Midwest. As the pressure gradient relaxes in response to the occluding cyclone, winds will also become weaker across the central CONUS. The only exception will be across portions of the Dakotas and western Nebraska where a deeply mixed boundary layer is likely and some stronger jet stream winds may mix to the surface. However, even within this region, fire-weather concerns will be quite low due to the below-freezing temperatures in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... On the backside of the expansive closed midlevel low over the central Plains, a belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow associated with the dry conveyor belt will overspread portions of the southern High Plains. From southeast NM into portions of West TX (particularly the Trans-Pecos), forecast soundings depict very dry air through the vertical profile, which coupled with surface temperatures in the 50s, will yield 10-15 percent afternoon RH. At the same time, downward momentum transport and a modest pressure gradient will favor 20+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph). While the area did receive some precipitation in the last few days, freeze-cured grasses may still support locally elevated fire-weather conditions given 1 to 2 days of drying and the dry/breezy conditions. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... Tuesday will feature a large, occluded cyclone drifting slowly east from the Plains to the Midwest. As the pressure gradient relaxes in response to the occluding cyclone, winds will also become weaker across the central CONUS. The only exception will be across portions of the Dakotas and western Nebraska where a deeply mixed boundary layer is likely and some stronger jet stream winds may mix to the surface. However, even within this region, fire-weather concerns will be quite low due to the below-freezing temperatures in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... On the backside of the expansive closed midlevel low over the central Plains, a belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow associated with the dry conveyor belt will overspread portions of the southern High Plains. From southeast NM into portions of West TX (particularly the Trans-Pecos), forecast soundings depict very dry air through the vertical profile, which coupled with surface temperatures in the 50s, will yield 10-15 percent afternoon RH. At the same time, downward momentum transport and a modest pressure gradient will favor 20+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph). While the area did receive some precipitation in the last few days, freeze-cured grasses may still support locally elevated fire-weather conditions given 1 to 2 days of drying and the dry/breezy conditions. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... Tuesday will feature a large, occluded cyclone drifting slowly east from the Plains to the Midwest. As the pressure gradient relaxes in response to the occluding cyclone, winds will also become weaker across the central CONUS. The only exception will be across portions of the Dakotas and western Nebraska where a deeply mixed boundary layer is likely and some stronger jet stream winds may mix to the surface. However, even within this region, fire-weather concerns will be quite low due to the below-freezing temperatures in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... On the backside of the expansive closed midlevel low over the central Plains, a belt of strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow associated with the dry conveyor belt will overspread portions of the southern High Plains. From southeast NM into portions of West TX (particularly the Trans-Pecos), forecast soundings depict very dry air through the vertical profile, which coupled with surface temperatures in the 50s, will yield 10-15 percent afternoon RH. At the same time, downward momentum transport and a modest pressure gradient will favor 20+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 30-40 mph). While the area did receive some precipitation in the last few days, freeze-cured grasses may still support locally elevated fire-weather conditions given 1 to 2 days of drying and the dry/breezy conditions. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... Tuesday will feature a large, occluded cyclone drifting slowly east from the Plains to the Midwest. As the pressure gradient relaxes in response to the occluding cyclone, winds will also become weaker across the central CONUS. The only exception will be across portions of the Dakotas and western Nebraska where a deeply mixed boundary layer is likely and some stronger jet stream winds may mix to the surface. However, even within this region, fire-weather concerns will be quite low due to the below-freezing temperatures in the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... Moist fuels are likely across most of the CONUS today. Therefore, even though there will be a surface cyclone across the central US, rain, cool temperatures, and antecedent wet conditions should keep relative humidity high. Therefore, windy conditions likely will not yield a significant fire-weather threat. Concerns for large fire will likely remain quite low elsewhere as high pressure builds into the western CONUS. Dormant grasses can respond somewhat fast during relatively short periods of dry weather in the winter, but the combination of cool temperatures and significant wetting rainfall should preclude fire-weather concerns today. Within the broader wind field of the surface cyclone, there may be some pockets of dry and breezy conditions, particularly across parts of eastern Wyoming and western South Dakota, amid strong northerly winds, but temperatures will remain below freezing. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... Moist fuels are likely across most of the CONUS today. Therefore, even though there will be a surface cyclone across the central US, rain, cool temperatures, and antecedent wet conditions should keep relative humidity high. Therefore, windy conditions likely will not yield a significant fire-weather threat. Concerns for large fire will likely remain quite low elsewhere as high pressure builds into the western CONUS. Dormant grasses can respond somewhat fast during relatively short periods of dry weather in the winter, but the combination of cool temperatures and significant wetting rainfall should preclude fire-weather concerns today. Within the broader wind field of the surface cyclone, there may be some pockets of dry and breezy conditions, particularly across parts of eastern Wyoming and western South Dakota, amid strong northerly winds, but temperatures will remain below freezing. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more