Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

MD 1615 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH CAROLINA INTO FAR EASTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1615 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Areas affected...South Carolina into far eastern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091726Z - 091930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are developing in an environment supportive of strong to severe downburst winds. This threat should remain relatively brief/isolated; watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Deep convection is rapidly developing from south-central GA into portions of SC within a weak low-level confluence zone and along a strengthening sea-breeze boundary. This comes as temperatures quickly warm into the low 90s within a very moist environment. Morning guidance has largely displayed a 3-5 F cool and dry bias across the region so far today, which has resulted in initiation slightly earlier than anticipated as well as SBCAPE values upwards of 4000-5000 J/kg. Observed dewpoint depressions on the order of 15 F suggest that LCLs are likely at around 1 km AGL with near-surface lapse rates on the order of 7-8 C/km. This combination of extreme buoyancy atop a shallow low-level dry-adiabatic layer should promote strong, water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging/severe downburst winds (most likely between 40-60 mph) through late afternoon. Very weak flow over the region (generally less than 15 knots per regional VWPs) will favor disorganized multicells with limited duration. Consequently, the short-range predictability and coverage of damaging winds will remain limited and precludes watch issuance. ..Moore/Mosier.. 07/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 32198060 31918100 31548123 31228136 30958153 30868198 31008235 31238274 31468310 31768330 32318335 33318296 34278211 34468175 34508139 34348035 34218002 34077982 33907972 33757972 32198060 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1614 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO THE CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1614 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Areas affected...Southern Virginia into the Carolinas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 091707Z - 091900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing within the southern Appalachians will pose a severe wind threat through the early evening hours as they spread east into southern Virginia and the Carolinas. Watch issuance is probable as thunderstorm coverage increases. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES/MRMS imagery show the early stages of deep convection developing along the southern Appalachians from far southwest VA into western NC. A gradual increase in storm coverage is anticipated over the next few hours as temperatures continue to warm into the upper 80s and lingering MLCIN is removed via boundary-layer heating/mixing. Downstream dewpoints in the mid 70s are supporting a plume of MLCAPE between 2000-2500 J/kg across the Carolinas into the Chesapeake Bay region. Convection will likely intensify as it migrates into this very buoyant environment; however, displacement from stronger mid-level flow to the north suggests that storms may move off the higher terrain somewhat slowly, driven mainly by propagation along convective outflows. Similar to yesterday, this environment will support strong to severe downburst winds, but unlike yesterday thunderstorm coverage should be greater as multiple convective clusters spread east through the early evening. Watch issuance is expected in the coming hours as thunderstorm intensity and coverage begin to increase. ..Moore/Mosier.. 07/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 34778327 34948345 35258351 35698322 35998246 36368192 37008118 37398070 37437833 37207799 36847798 34657964 34448010 34448082 34718292 34778327 Read more

MD 1613 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1613 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 091649Z - 091845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify as they spread east into the Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. Watch issuance is expected. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES IR and MRMS imagery all show steady intensification of convection as well as a gradual increase in convective coverage across the central Appalachians. This trend is expected to continue over the next several hours amid continued daytime heating/destabilization and as convection approaches the apex of a buoyancy axis extending from the Carolinas into southern PA. Additionally, moderate mid-level flow associated with a low-amplitude upper disturbance is supporting adequate deep-layer shear (around 30 knots) for organized convection, including a couple of supercells. The expectation over the next several hours is that a mix of discrete cells and clusters will gradually grow upscale into one or more short, but organized, line segments given persistent broad-scale ascent, limited capping, and storm motions largely aligned with the zone of initiation. As such, an initial threat of large hail and sporadic severe winds should transition to primarily a severe wind threat as storms approach the I-95 corridor later this afternoon. Watch issuance is expected to address this potential. ..Moore/Mosier.. 07/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 40517772 40627732 40617676 40487610 40247563 39947521 39657498 39187517 38857559 37597849 37497918 37507973 37568022 37928051 38468050 38908025 40517772 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0497 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0497 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jul 9 17:58:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of scattered damaging winds is possible Thursday afternoon across a portion of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly from late afternoon through Thursday night. ...Central States... Much uncertainty plagues this forecast cycle with low predictability across guidance related to the development/evolution of multiple MCVs from D1. These MCVs will meander downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing east from the northeast Great Basin into the central Great Plains on D2. Meanwhile, a positive-tilt shortwave trough should amplify from the Canadian Rockies into the southern Prairie Provinces/northern High Plains by early Friday. Have expanded level 1-MRGL risk eastward across the Upper MS Valley for potential diurnal intensification of convection surrounding remnant MCVs. While confidence is quite low in spatiotemporal details and the degree of convective coverage, there is adequate signal across guidance to warrant low-probability severe hail/wind hazards. Primary severe potential will likely commence towards peak heating across the central High Plains ahead of the aforementioned low-amplitude shortwave trough. Hot/deep-mixed thermodynamic profiles are expected from southwest/south-central NE southward, as the dryline reaches central KS. High-based convection in the post-dryline airmass will offer a threat of sporadic severe gusts. As convection impinges on a more buoyant airmass downstream, in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet from the southern High Plains towards eastern NE, an MCS should develop over NE in the evening. A downstream warm-advection arc will aid in sustaining this MCS eastward across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley. A swath of severe wind gusts with embedded severe hail will be possible Thursday night. Farther north in the northern Great Plains, latest signals are for broad, low-probability hail/wind threats. The timing of ascent and strengthening mid/upper-level flow appears delayed until late in the period ahead of the Canadian Rockies/northern High Plains trough. Convective coverage should remain isolated during the late afternoon to early evening along a weak surface front/trough. Modest deep-layer shear during this timeframe will modulate the overall threat as well. Greater convective potential should exist overnight but may largely remain behind the undercutting surface front as it sharpens southeastward. ...East... Weak deep-layer shear will be prevalent across much of the region on Thursday afternoon, south of modest mid-level westerlies across NY/New England associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough over southeast Canada. Rich boundary-layer moisture will remain prevalent from the DE Valley southward. This will support a primary threat of wet microbursts producing erratic damaging winds. Have maintained a level 2-SLGT risk in a portion of the Southeast for the most probable corridor of widespread thunderstorms producing localized damaging winds. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of scattered damaging winds is possible Thursday afternoon across a portion of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly from late afternoon through Thursday night. ...Central States... Much uncertainty plagues this forecast cycle with low predictability across guidance related to the development/evolution of multiple MCVs from D1. These MCVs will meander downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing east from the northeast Great Basin into the central Great Plains on D2. Meanwhile, a positive-tilt shortwave trough should amplify from the Canadian Rockies into the southern Prairie Provinces/northern High Plains by early Friday. Have expanded level 1-MRGL risk eastward across the Upper MS Valley for potential diurnal intensification of convection surrounding remnant MCVs. While confidence is quite low in spatiotemporal details and the degree of convective coverage, there is adequate signal across guidance to warrant low-probability severe hail/wind hazards. Primary severe potential will likely commence towards peak heating across the central High Plains ahead of the aforementioned low-amplitude shortwave trough. Hot/deep-mixed thermodynamic profiles are expected from southwest/south-central NE southward, as the dryline reaches central KS. High-based convection in the post-dryline airmass will offer a threat of sporadic severe gusts. As convection impinges on a more buoyant airmass downstream, in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet from the southern High Plains towards eastern NE, an MCS should develop over NE in the evening. A downstream warm-advection arc will aid in sustaining this MCS eastward across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley. A swath of severe wind gusts with embedded severe hail will be possible Thursday night. Farther north in the northern Great Plains, latest signals are for broad, low-probability hail/wind threats. The timing of ascent and strengthening mid/upper-level flow appears delayed until late in the period ahead of the Canadian Rockies/northern High Plains trough. Convective coverage should remain isolated during the late afternoon to early evening along a weak surface front/trough. Modest deep-layer shear during this timeframe will modulate the overall threat as well. Greater convective potential should exist overnight but may largely remain behind the undercutting surface front as it sharpens southeastward. ...East... Weak deep-layer shear will be prevalent across much of the region on Thursday afternoon, south of modest mid-level westerlies across NY/New England associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough over southeast Canada. Rich boundary-layer moisture will remain prevalent from the DE Valley southward. This will support a primary threat of wet microbursts producing erratic damaging winds. Have maintained a level 2-SLGT risk in a portion of the Southeast for the most probable corridor of widespread thunderstorms producing localized damaging winds. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of scattered damaging winds is possible Thursday afternoon across a portion of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly from late afternoon through Thursday night. ...Central States... Much uncertainty plagues this forecast cycle with low predictability across guidance related to the development/evolution of multiple MCVs from D1. These MCVs will meander downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing east from the northeast Great Basin into the central Great Plains on D2. Meanwhile, a positive-tilt shortwave trough should amplify from the Canadian Rockies into the southern Prairie Provinces/northern High Plains by early Friday. Have expanded level 1-MRGL risk eastward across the Upper MS Valley for potential diurnal intensification of convection surrounding remnant MCVs. While confidence is quite low in spatiotemporal details and the degree of convective coverage, there is adequate signal across guidance to warrant low-probability severe hail/wind hazards. Primary severe potential will likely commence towards peak heating across the central High Plains ahead of the aforementioned low-amplitude shortwave trough. Hot/deep-mixed thermodynamic profiles are expected from southwest/south-central NE southward, as the dryline reaches central KS. High-based convection in the post-dryline airmass will offer a threat of sporadic severe gusts. As convection impinges on a more buoyant airmass downstream, in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet from the southern High Plains towards eastern NE, an MCS should develop over NE in the evening. A downstream warm-advection arc will aid in sustaining this MCS eastward across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley. A swath of severe wind gusts with embedded severe hail will be possible Thursday night. Farther north in the northern Great Plains, latest signals are for broad, low-probability hail/wind threats. The timing of ascent and strengthening mid/upper-level flow appears delayed until late in the period ahead of the Canadian Rockies/northern High Plains trough. Convective coverage should remain isolated during the late afternoon to early evening along a weak surface front/trough. Modest deep-layer shear during this timeframe will modulate the overall threat as well. Greater convective potential should exist overnight but may largely remain behind the undercutting surface front as it sharpens southeastward. ...East... Weak deep-layer shear will be prevalent across much of the region on Thursday afternoon, south of modest mid-level westerlies across NY/New England associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough over southeast Canada. Rich boundary-layer moisture will remain prevalent from the DE Valley southward. This will support a primary threat of wet microbursts producing erratic damaging winds. Have maintained a level 2-SLGT risk in a portion of the Southeast for the most probable corridor of widespread thunderstorms producing localized damaging winds. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of scattered damaging winds is possible Thursday afternoon across a portion of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly from late afternoon through Thursday night. ...Central States... Much uncertainty plagues this forecast cycle with low predictability across guidance related to the development/evolution of multiple MCVs from D1. These MCVs will meander downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing east from the northeast Great Basin into the central Great Plains on D2. Meanwhile, a positive-tilt shortwave trough should amplify from the Canadian Rockies into the southern Prairie Provinces/northern High Plains by early Friday. Have expanded level 1-MRGL risk eastward across the Upper MS Valley for potential diurnal intensification of convection surrounding remnant MCVs. While confidence is quite low in spatiotemporal details and the degree of convective coverage, there is adequate signal across guidance to warrant low-probability severe hail/wind hazards. Primary severe potential will likely commence towards peak heating across the central High Plains ahead of the aforementioned low-amplitude shortwave trough. Hot/deep-mixed thermodynamic profiles are expected from southwest/south-central NE southward, as the dryline reaches central KS. High-based convection in the post-dryline airmass will offer a threat of sporadic severe gusts. As convection impinges on a more buoyant airmass downstream, in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet from the southern High Plains towards eastern NE, an MCS should develop over NE in the evening. A downstream warm-advection arc will aid in sustaining this MCS eastward across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley. A swath of severe wind gusts with embedded severe hail will be possible Thursday night. Farther north in the northern Great Plains, latest signals are for broad, low-probability hail/wind threats. The timing of ascent and strengthening mid/upper-level flow appears delayed until late in the period ahead of the Canadian Rockies/northern High Plains trough. Convective coverage should remain isolated during the late afternoon to early evening along a weak surface front/trough. Modest deep-layer shear during this timeframe will modulate the overall threat as well. Greater convective potential should exist overnight but may largely remain behind the undercutting surface front as it sharpens southeastward. ...East... Weak deep-layer shear will be prevalent across much of the region on Thursday afternoon, south of modest mid-level westerlies across NY/New England associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough over southeast Canada. Rich boundary-layer moisture will remain prevalent from the DE Valley southward. This will support a primary threat of wet microbursts producing erratic damaging winds. Have maintained a level 2-SLGT risk in a portion of the Southeast for the most probable corridor of widespread thunderstorms producing localized damaging winds. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of scattered damaging winds is possible Thursday afternoon across a portion of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly from late afternoon through Thursday night. ...Central States... Much uncertainty plagues this forecast cycle with low predictability across guidance related to the development/evolution of multiple MCVs from D1. These MCVs will meander downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing east from the northeast Great Basin into the central Great Plains on D2. Meanwhile, a positive-tilt shortwave trough should amplify from the Canadian Rockies into the southern Prairie Provinces/northern High Plains by early Friday. Have expanded level 1-MRGL risk eastward across the Upper MS Valley for potential diurnal intensification of convection surrounding remnant MCVs. While confidence is quite low in spatiotemporal details and the degree of convective coverage, there is adequate signal across guidance to warrant low-probability severe hail/wind hazards. Primary severe potential will likely commence towards peak heating across the central High Plains ahead of the aforementioned low-amplitude shortwave trough. Hot/deep-mixed thermodynamic profiles are expected from southwest/south-central NE southward, as the dryline reaches central KS. High-based convection in the post-dryline airmass will offer a threat of sporadic severe gusts. As convection impinges on a more buoyant airmass downstream, in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet from the southern High Plains towards eastern NE, an MCS should develop over NE in the evening. A downstream warm-advection arc will aid in sustaining this MCS eastward across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley. A swath of severe wind gusts with embedded severe hail will be possible Thursday night. Farther north in the northern Great Plains, latest signals are for broad, low-probability hail/wind threats. The timing of ascent and strengthening mid/upper-level flow appears delayed until late in the period ahead of the Canadian Rockies/northern High Plains trough. Convective coverage should remain isolated during the late afternoon to early evening along a weak surface front/trough. Modest deep-layer shear during this timeframe will modulate the overall threat as well. Greater convective potential should exist overnight but may largely remain behind the undercutting surface front as it sharpens southeastward. ...East... Weak deep-layer shear will be prevalent across much of the region on Thursday afternoon, south of modest mid-level westerlies across NY/New England associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough over southeast Canada. Rich boundary-layer moisture will remain prevalent from the DE Valley southward. This will support a primary threat of wet microbursts producing erratic damaging winds. Have maintained a level 2-SLGT risk in a portion of the Southeast for the most probable corridor of widespread thunderstorms producing localized damaging winds. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of scattered damaging winds is possible Thursday afternoon across a portion of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly from late afternoon through Thursday night. ...Central States... Much uncertainty plagues this forecast cycle with low predictability across guidance related to the development/evolution of multiple MCVs from D1. These MCVs will meander downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing east from the northeast Great Basin into the central Great Plains on D2. Meanwhile, a positive-tilt shortwave trough should amplify from the Canadian Rockies into the southern Prairie Provinces/northern High Plains by early Friday. Have expanded level 1-MRGL risk eastward across the Upper MS Valley for potential diurnal intensification of convection surrounding remnant MCVs. While confidence is quite low in spatiotemporal details and the degree of convective coverage, there is adequate signal across guidance to warrant low-probability severe hail/wind hazards. Primary severe potential will likely commence towards peak heating across the central High Plains ahead of the aforementioned low-amplitude shortwave trough. Hot/deep-mixed thermodynamic profiles are expected from southwest/south-central NE southward, as the dryline reaches central KS. High-based convection in the post-dryline airmass will offer a threat of sporadic severe gusts. As convection impinges on a more buoyant airmass downstream, in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet from the southern High Plains towards eastern NE, an MCS should develop over NE in the evening. A downstream warm-advection arc will aid in sustaining this MCS eastward across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley. A swath of severe wind gusts with embedded severe hail will be possible Thursday night. Farther north in the northern Great Plains, latest signals are for broad, low-probability hail/wind threats. The timing of ascent and strengthening mid/upper-level flow appears delayed until late in the period ahead of the Canadian Rockies/northern High Plains trough. Convective coverage should remain isolated during the late afternoon to early evening along a weak surface front/trough. Modest deep-layer shear during this timeframe will modulate the overall threat as well. Greater convective potential should exist overnight but may largely remain behind the undercutting surface front as it sharpens southeastward. ...East... Weak deep-layer shear will be prevalent across much of the region on Thursday afternoon, south of modest mid-level westerlies across NY/New England associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough over southeast Canada. Rich boundary-layer moisture will remain prevalent from the DE Valley southward. This will support a primary threat of wet microbursts producing erratic damaging winds. Have maintained a level 2-SLGT risk in a portion of the Southeast for the most probable corridor of widespread thunderstorms producing localized damaging winds. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of scattered damaging winds is possible Thursday afternoon across a portion of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly from late afternoon through Thursday night. ...Central States... Much uncertainty plagues this forecast cycle with low predictability across guidance related to the development/evolution of multiple MCVs from D1. These MCVs will meander downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing east from the northeast Great Basin into the central Great Plains on D2. Meanwhile, a positive-tilt shortwave trough should amplify from the Canadian Rockies into the southern Prairie Provinces/northern High Plains by early Friday. Have expanded level 1-MRGL risk eastward across the Upper MS Valley for potential diurnal intensification of convection surrounding remnant MCVs. While confidence is quite low in spatiotemporal details and the degree of convective coverage, there is adequate signal across guidance to warrant low-probability severe hail/wind hazards. Primary severe potential will likely commence towards peak heating across the central High Plains ahead of the aforementioned low-amplitude shortwave trough. Hot/deep-mixed thermodynamic profiles are expected from southwest/south-central NE southward, as the dryline reaches central KS. High-based convection in the post-dryline airmass will offer a threat of sporadic severe gusts. As convection impinges on a more buoyant airmass downstream, in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet from the southern High Plains towards eastern NE, an MCS should develop over NE in the evening. A downstream warm-advection arc will aid in sustaining this MCS eastward across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley. A swath of severe wind gusts with embedded severe hail will be possible Thursday night. Farther north in the northern Great Plains, latest signals are for broad, low-probability hail/wind threats. The timing of ascent and strengthening mid/upper-level flow appears delayed until late in the period ahead of the Canadian Rockies/northern High Plains trough. Convective coverage should remain isolated during the late afternoon to early evening along a weak surface front/trough. Modest deep-layer shear during this timeframe will modulate the overall threat as well. Greater convective potential should exist overnight but may largely remain behind the undercutting surface front as it sharpens southeastward. ...East... Weak deep-layer shear will be prevalent across much of the region on Thursday afternoon, south of modest mid-level westerlies across NY/New England associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough over southeast Canada. Rich boundary-layer moisture will remain prevalent from the DE Valley southward. This will support a primary threat of wet microbursts producing erratic damaging winds. Have maintained a level 2-SLGT risk in a portion of the Southeast for the most probable corridor of widespread thunderstorms producing localized damaging winds. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A corridor of scattered damaging winds is possible Thursday afternoon across a portion of the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central Great Plains, mainly from late afternoon through Thursday night. ...Central States... Much uncertainty plagues this forecast cycle with low predictability across guidance related to the development/evolution of multiple MCVs from D1. These MCVs will meander downstream of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing east from the northeast Great Basin into the central Great Plains on D2. Meanwhile, a positive-tilt shortwave trough should amplify from the Canadian Rockies into the southern Prairie Provinces/northern High Plains by early Friday. Have expanded level 1-MRGL risk eastward across the Upper MS Valley for potential diurnal intensification of convection surrounding remnant MCVs. While confidence is quite low in spatiotemporal details and the degree of convective coverage, there is adequate signal across guidance to warrant low-probability severe hail/wind hazards. Primary severe potential will likely commence towards peak heating across the central High Plains ahead of the aforementioned low-amplitude shortwave trough. Hot/deep-mixed thermodynamic profiles are expected from southwest/south-central NE southward, as the dryline reaches central KS. High-based convection in the post-dryline airmass will offer a threat of sporadic severe gusts. As convection impinges on a more buoyant airmass downstream, in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet from the southern High Plains towards eastern NE, an MCS should develop over NE in the evening. A downstream warm-advection arc will aid in sustaining this MCS eastward across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley. A swath of severe wind gusts with embedded severe hail will be possible Thursday night. Farther north in the northern Great Plains, latest signals are for broad, low-probability hail/wind threats. The timing of ascent and strengthening mid/upper-level flow appears delayed until late in the period ahead of the Canadian Rockies/northern High Plains trough. Convective coverage should remain isolated during the late afternoon to early evening along a weak surface front/trough. Modest deep-layer shear during this timeframe will modulate the overall threat as well. Greater convective potential should exist overnight but may largely remain behind the undercutting surface front as it sharpens southeastward. ...East... Weak deep-layer shear will be prevalent across much of the region on Thursday afternoon, south of modest mid-level westerlies across NY/New England associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough over southeast Canada. Rich boundary-layer moisture will remain prevalent from the DE Valley southward. This will support a primary threat of wet microbursts producing erratic damaging winds. Have maintained a level 2-SLGT risk in a portion of the Southeast for the most probable corridor of widespread thunderstorms producing localized damaging winds. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more