Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. ..Mosier/Moore.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and severe wind gusts are also possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... A weak mid-level trough will move slowly eastward today across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A belt of modestly enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will remain over the Mid-Atlantic through this evening, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are once again expected to develop this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, and then spread eastward towards the coast. Steepening low-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE generally around 1500-3000 J/kg across lower elevations. Loosely organized clusters may eventually develop from parts of Virginia towards the DelMarVa Peninsula and vicinity owing to somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear across these regions. Isolated hail may occur initially with the more cellular/discrete convection, before scattered severe/damaging winds becomes the primary risk with eastward extent as multiple clusters potentially develop. ...Northern/central Plains... Downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating from an upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest, most guidance continues to suggest that isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form by late this afternoon along a weak surface trough. However, it should be noted that guidance continues to vary considerably in the short-term spatial details, likely owing to owing to degree of elevated mixed layer/warmth aloft. Recent HRRR (and RRFS) runs are somewhat uncharacteristically more aggressive (given the capping and modest forcing regime etc.) in terms of overall degree of deep convective development and the southward extent thereof, as compared to various global guidance. A corridor of strong to very strong instability will exist by late afternoon/early evening from parts of western/central Dakotas to northern Nebraska, aided by daytime heating and very steep lapse rates. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the proximity of the upper ridge, stronger upper-level westerlies will support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells initially, with associated threat for large to isolated very large hail. Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward across the Dakotas and parts of Nebraska, with a risk for severe-caliber wind gusts, some of which could be 75+ mph on an isolated basis given the rather favorable thermodynamic environment forecast. Risk-magnitude uncertainty increases southward across Kansas, but at least isolated severe storms may occur across western/central/northern parts of Kansas, and possibly into northern Oklahoma. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and northern Great Basin... Downstream of a shortwave trough moving eastward toward the northern Great Basin, an elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will exist across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Within this favorable flow regime amid steepened low-level lapse rates through daytime heating, scattered thunderstorms should foster strong to isolated severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds may occur this afternoon across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. This will be as scattered thunderstorms develop beneath a weak upper trough, supported by a modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear. ..Guyer/Dean.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and severe wind gusts are also possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... A weak mid-level trough will move slowly eastward today across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A belt of modestly enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will remain over the Mid-Atlantic through this evening, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are once again expected to develop this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, and then spread eastward towards the coast. Steepening low-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE generally around 1500-3000 J/kg across lower elevations. Loosely organized clusters may eventually develop from parts of Virginia towards the DelMarVa Peninsula and vicinity owing to somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear across these regions. Isolated hail may occur initially with the more cellular/discrete convection, before scattered severe/damaging winds becomes the primary risk with eastward extent as multiple clusters potentially develop. ...Northern/central Plains... Downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating from an upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest, most guidance continues to suggest that isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form by late this afternoon along a weak surface trough. However, it should be noted that guidance continues to vary considerably in the short-term spatial details, likely owing to owing to degree of elevated mixed layer/warmth aloft. Recent HRRR (and RRFS) runs are somewhat uncharacteristically more aggressive (given the capping and modest forcing regime etc.) in terms of overall degree of deep convective development and the southward extent thereof, as compared to various global guidance. A corridor of strong to very strong instability will exist by late afternoon/early evening from parts of western/central Dakotas to northern Nebraska, aided by daytime heating and very steep lapse rates. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the proximity of the upper ridge, stronger upper-level westerlies will support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells initially, with associated threat for large to isolated very large hail. Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward across the Dakotas and parts of Nebraska, with a risk for severe-caliber wind gusts, some of which could be 75+ mph on an isolated basis given the rather favorable thermodynamic environment forecast. Risk-magnitude uncertainty increases southward across Kansas, but at least isolated severe storms may occur across western/central/northern parts of Kansas, and possibly into northern Oklahoma. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and northern Great Basin... Downstream of a shortwave trough moving eastward toward the northern Great Basin, an elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will exist across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Within this favorable flow regime amid steepened low-level lapse rates through daytime heating, scattered thunderstorms should foster strong to isolated severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds may occur this afternoon across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. This will be as scattered thunderstorms develop beneath a weak upper trough, supported by a modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear. ..Guyer/Dean.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and severe wind gusts are also possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... A weak mid-level trough will move slowly eastward today across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A belt of modestly enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will remain over the Mid-Atlantic through this evening, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are once again expected to develop this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, and then spread eastward towards the coast. Steepening low-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE generally around 1500-3000 J/kg across lower elevations. Loosely organized clusters may eventually develop from parts of Virginia towards the DelMarVa Peninsula and vicinity owing to somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear across these regions. Isolated hail may occur initially with the more cellular/discrete convection, before scattered severe/damaging winds becomes the primary risk with eastward extent as multiple clusters potentially develop. ...Northern/central Plains... Downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating from an upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest, most guidance continues to suggest that isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form by late this afternoon along a weak surface trough. However, it should be noted that guidance continues to vary considerably in the short-term spatial details, likely owing to owing to degree of elevated mixed layer/warmth aloft. Recent HRRR (and RRFS) runs are somewhat uncharacteristically more aggressive (given the capping and modest forcing regime etc.) in terms of overall degree of deep convective development and the southward extent thereof, as compared to various global guidance. A corridor of strong to very strong instability will exist by late afternoon/early evening from parts of western/central Dakotas to northern Nebraska, aided by daytime heating and very steep lapse rates. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the proximity of the upper ridge, stronger upper-level westerlies will support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells initially, with associated threat for large to isolated very large hail. Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward across the Dakotas and parts of Nebraska, with a risk for severe-caliber wind gusts, some of which could be 75+ mph on an isolated basis given the rather favorable thermodynamic environment forecast. Risk-magnitude uncertainty increases southward across Kansas, but at least isolated severe storms may occur across western/central/northern parts of Kansas, and possibly into northern Oklahoma. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and northern Great Basin... Downstream of a shortwave trough moving eastward toward the northern Great Basin, an elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will exist across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Within this favorable flow regime amid steepened low-level lapse rates through daytime heating, scattered thunderstorms should foster strong to isolated severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds may occur this afternoon across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. This will be as scattered thunderstorms develop beneath a weak upper trough, supported by a modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear. ..Guyer/Dean.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and severe wind gusts are also possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... A weak mid-level trough will move slowly eastward today across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A belt of modestly enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will remain over the Mid-Atlantic through this evening, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are once again expected to develop this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, and then spread eastward towards the coast. Steepening low-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE generally around 1500-3000 J/kg across lower elevations. Loosely organized clusters may eventually develop from parts of Virginia towards the DelMarVa Peninsula and vicinity owing to somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear across these regions. Isolated hail may occur initially with the more cellular/discrete convection, before scattered severe/damaging winds becomes the primary risk with eastward extent as multiple clusters potentially develop. ...Northern/central Plains... Downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating from an upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest, most guidance continues to suggest that isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form by late this afternoon along a weak surface trough. However, it should be noted that guidance continues to vary considerably in the short-term spatial details, likely owing to owing to degree of elevated mixed layer/warmth aloft. Recent HRRR (and RRFS) runs are somewhat uncharacteristically more aggressive (given the capping and modest forcing regime etc.) in terms of overall degree of deep convective development and the southward extent thereof, as compared to various global guidance. A corridor of strong to very strong instability will exist by late afternoon/early evening from parts of western/central Dakotas to northern Nebraska, aided by daytime heating and very steep lapse rates. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the proximity of the upper ridge, stronger upper-level westerlies will support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells initially, with associated threat for large to isolated very large hail. Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward across the Dakotas and parts of Nebraska, with a risk for severe-caliber wind gusts, some of which could be 75+ mph on an isolated basis given the rather favorable thermodynamic environment forecast. Risk-magnitude uncertainty increases southward across Kansas, but at least isolated severe storms may occur across western/central/northern parts of Kansas, and possibly into northern Oklahoma. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and northern Great Basin... Downstream of a shortwave trough moving eastward toward the northern Great Basin, an elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will exist across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Within this favorable flow regime amid steepened low-level lapse rates through daytime heating, scattered thunderstorms should foster strong to isolated severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds may occur this afternoon across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. This will be as scattered thunderstorms develop beneath a weak upper trough, supported by a modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear. ..Guyer/Dean.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and severe wind gusts are also possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... A weak mid-level trough will move slowly eastward today across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A belt of modestly enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will remain over the Mid-Atlantic through this evening, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are once again expected to develop this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, and then spread eastward towards the coast. Steepening low-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE generally around 1500-3000 J/kg across lower elevations. Loosely organized clusters may eventually develop from parts of Virginia towards the DelMarVa Peninsula and vicinity owing to somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear across these regions. Isolated hail may occur initially with the more cellular/discrete convection, before scattered severe/damaging winds becomes the primary risk with eastward extent as multiple clusters potentially develop. ...Northern/central Plains... Downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating from an upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest, most guidance continues to suggest that isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form by late this afternoon along a weak surface trough. However, it should be noted that guidance continues to vary considerably in the short-term spatial details, likely owing to owing to degree of elevated mixed layer/warmth aloft. Recent HRRR (and RRFS) runs are somewhat uncharacteristically more aggressive (given the capping and modest forcing regime etc.) in terms of overall degree of deep convective development and the southward extent thereof, as compared to various global guidance. A corridor of strong to very strong instability will exist by late afternoon/early evening from parts of western/central Dakotas to northern Nebraska, aided by daytime heating and very steep lapse rates. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the proximity of the upper ridge, stronger upper-level westerlies will support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells initially, with associated threat for large to isolated very large hail. Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward across the Dakotas and parts of Nebraska, with a risk for severe-caliber wind gusts, some of which could be 75+ mph on an isolated basis given the rather favorable thermodynamic environment forecast. Risk-magnitude uncertainty increases southward across Kansas, but at least isolated severe storms may occur across western/central/northern parts of Kansas, and possibly into northern Oklahoma. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and northern Great Basin... Downstream of a shortwave trough moving eastward toward the northern Great Basin, an elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will exist across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Within this favorable flow regime amid steepened low-level lapse rates through daytime heating, scattered thunderstorms should foster strong to isolated severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds may occur this afternoon across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. This will be as scattered thunderstorms develop beneath a weak upper trough, supported by a modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear. ..Guyer/Dean.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and severe wind gusts are also possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... A weak mid-level trough will move slowly eastward today across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A belt of modestly enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will remain over the Mid-Atlantic through this evening, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are once again expected to develop this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, and then spread eastward towards the coast. Steepening low-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE generally around 1500-3000 J/kg across lower elevations. Loosely organized clusters may eventually develop from parts of Virginia towards the DelMarVa Peninsula and vicinity owing to somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear across these regions. Isolated hail may occur initially with the more cellular/discrete convection, before scattered severe/damaging winds becomes the primary risk with eastward extent as multiple clusters potentially develop. ...Northern/central Plains... Downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating from an upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest, most guidance continues to suggest that isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form by late this afternoon along a weak surface trough. However, it should be noted that guidance continues to vary considerably in the short-term spatial details, likely owing to owing to degree of elevated mixed layer/warmth aloft. Recent HRRR (and RRFS) runs are somewhat uncharacteristically more aggressive (given the capping and modest forcing regime etc.) in terms of overall degree of deep convective development and the southward extent thereof, as compared to various global guidance. A corridor of strong to very strong instability will exist by late afternoon/early evening from parts of western/central Dakotas to northern Nebraska, aided by daytime heating and very steep lapse rates. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the proximity of the upper ridge, stronger upper-level westerlies will support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells initially, with associated threat for large to isolated very large hail. Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward across the Dakotas and parts of Nebraska, with a risk for severe-caliber wind gusts, some of which could be 75+ mph on an isolated basis given the rather favorable thermodynamic environment forecast. Risk-magnitude uncertainty increases southward across Kansas, but at least isolated severe storms may occur across western/central/northern parts of Kansas, and possibly into northern Oklahoma. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and northern Great Basin... Downstream of a shortwave trough moving eastward toward the northern Great Basin, an elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will exist across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Within this favorable flow regime amid steepened low-level lapse rates through daytime heating, scattered thunderstorms should foster strong to isolated severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds may occur this afternoon across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. This will be as scattered thunderstorms develop beneath a weak upper trough, supported by a modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear. ..Guyer/Dean.. 07/09/2025 Read more