Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Greater Four Corners Region... A mid-level short wave trough currently over the Great Basin will shift eastward into the Southern Rockies by Day 2/Friday. Elevated westerly mid-level flow maxima at the base of trough will overspread the Greater Four Corners region Friday afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer and enhanced mid-level flow will support breezy west-northwest surface winds and widespread relative humidity of 15 percent or less in the afternoon, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions for much of the Upper Colorado River Basin and Four Corners Region. ..Williams.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the Southwest, a midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Enhanced westerly flow aloft accompanying this feature will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive area of 15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the Four Corners region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Greater Four Corners Region... A mid-level short wave trough currently over the Great Basin will shift eastward into the Southern Rockies by Day 2/Friday. Elevated westerly mid-level flow maxima at the base of trough will overspread the Greater Four Corners region Friday afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer and enhanced mid-level flow will support breezy west-northwest surface winds and widespread relative humidity of 15 percent or less in the afternoon, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions for much of the Upper Colorado River Basin and Four Corners Region. ..Williams.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the Southwest, a midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Enhanced westerly flow aloft accompanying this feature will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive area of 15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the Four Corners region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Greater Four Corners Region... A mid-level short wave trough currently over the Great Basin will shift eastward into the Southern Rockies by Day 2/Friday. Elevated westerly mid-level flow maxima at the base of trough will overspread the Greater Four Corners region Friday afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer and enhanced mid-level flow will support breezy west-northwest surface winds and widespread relative humidity of 15 percent or less in the afternoon, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions for much of the Upper Colorado River Basin and Four Corners Region. ..Williams.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the Southwest, a midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Enhanced westerly flow aloft accompanying this feature will overspread a deeply mixed boundary layer during the afternoon. As a result, an expansive area of 15 percent RH and 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across the Four Corners region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0498 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0498 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0498 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0498 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0498 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0498 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0497 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW TRI TO 15 ESE BKW TO 35 SE LBE. ..MOORE..07/09/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...CTP...RLX...AKQ...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-092040- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC001-003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 092040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO EASTERN IA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa. ...Central States... Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through the southern High Plains. A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region. Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD, mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front, owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains, with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment. ...East... A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday afternoon. Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued. ..Grams.. 07/09/2025 Read more