Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z ...Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday... A building mid-level ridge across the Western U.S. will promote lighter winds overall but steadily increasing temperatures across the region through the weekend. Farther east, a mid-level trough moving through the northern High Plains Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday will usher in cooler, post-frontal flow into much Northern/Central Plains through the weekend while also bringing scattered showers/thunderstorms to the central and southern High Plains, with wetting rains remaining along and east of the Continental Divide. ...Days 5-6/Sunday-Monday... Another mid-level trough translating southeastward from British Columbia into the Northern Tier states could bring a thunderstorm threat to portions of the Northern Rockies and MT High Plains Day 5/Monday but a deeper moisture plume could limit dry thunderstorm potential. Higher confidence exists for dry and breezy conditions across the Columbia River Basin on Sunday as stronger mid-level flow promotes dry, downslope winds into the basin, as well as accelerated valley winds across the Snake River Plain amid dry fuels and low RH on Monday. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... A West Coast thermal trough will promote well above normal temperatures and low relative humidity across the coastal ranges of northern CA, OR and WA but winds appear to remain light from latest model guidance consensus. Additionally, confidence remains low of a return of deeper monsoon moisture into the Southwest around midweek, precluding introduction dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z ...Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday... A building mid-level ridge across the Western U.S. will promote lighter winds overall but steadily increasing temperatures across the region through the weekend. Farther east, a mid-level trough moving through the northern High Plains Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday will usher in cooler, post-frontal flow into much Northern/Central Plains through the weekend while also bringing scattered showers/thunderstorms to the central and southern High Plains, with wetting rains remaining along and east of the Continental Divide. ...Days 5-6/Sunday-Monday... Another mid-level trough translating southeastward from British Columbia into the Northern Tier states could bring a thunderstorm threat to portions of the Northern Rockies and MT High Plains Day 5/Monday but a deeper moisture plume could limit dry thunderstorm potential. Higher confidence exists for dry and breezy conditions across the Columbia River Basin on Sunday as stronger mid-level flow promotes dry, downslope winds into the basin, as well as accelerated valley winds across the Snake River Plain amid dry fuels and low RH on Monday. ...Day 7-8/Tuesday-Wednesday... A West Coast thermal trough will promote well above normal temperatures and low relative humidity across the coastal ranges of northern CA, OR and WA but winds appear to remain light from latest model guidance consensus. Additionally, confidence remains low of a return of deeper monsoon moisture into the Southwest around midweek, precluding introduction dry thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 07/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1619 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 497... FOR FAR NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1619 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Areas affected...Far northern North Carolina into Virginia and southern Maryland Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 497... Valid 091949Z - 092145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 497 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensification is ongoing across northern North Carolina into Virginia. An increase in damaging/severe wind potential is expected over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...A leading convective band emanating off the Blue Ridge Mountains is becoming established from northern VA into far northwest NC. Latest GOES IR imagery shows rapid cloud-top cooling associated with several deeper embedded convective cores, signifying robust intensification. Buoyancy immediately downstream continues to increase with temperatures warming into the upper 80s/low 90s and MLCAPE approaching 2500 J/kg as of the 20z RAP mesoanalysis. This air mass should promote further intensification over the next several hours and is favorable for strong water-loaded downbursts. At this point, storm mode should primarily be linear given mean flow oriented along the developing band. 25-30 knot bulk shear should support a few embedded surging segments within the line that may pose a few focused corridors of damaging/severe winds with gusts as high as 55-65 mph. Latest guidance hints that this potential should be maximized over the next few hours from the NC/VA border into central VA. ..Moore.. 07/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP... LAT...LON 37117722 36797775 36427866 36217940 36097999 36018056 36028104 36108130 36378131 36648072 36838020 37157960 37467918 37927853 38337804 38967762 39177729 39087654 38887620 38477605 37947618 37507668 37117722 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0499 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0499 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0499 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0499 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0499 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0499 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 499 SEVERE TSTM DE MD NJ PA CW 092130Z - 100400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 499 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Delaware Eastern Maryland Central and Southern New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 530 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread eastward across the watch area through the evening. A warm/humid and moderately unstable air mass will promote a risk of locally damaging wind gusts with the stronger cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Trenton NJ to 30 miles southeast of Patuxent River MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 497...WW 498... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0497 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE HSS TO 30 E SSU TO 25 SSE UNV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1619 ..MOORE..07/09/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...CTP...RLX...AKQ...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-092140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 092140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0497 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE HSS TO 30 E SSU TO 25 SSE UNV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1619 ..MOORE..07/09/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...CTP...RLX...AKQ...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-092140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 092140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1618 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IDAHO INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1618 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Idaho into southern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 091948Z - 092115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe gusts will become an increasing concern as at least scattered thunderstorms develop and mature through the afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance may be needed. DISCUSSION...Deepening CU over eastern ID/southern MT are indicating attempts at thunderstorm initiation atop a destabilizing boundary layer with eroding convective inhibition. 19Z mesoanalysis shows boundary-layer lapse rates already reaching 9 C/km in some spots, with 500+ J/kg MLCAPE. RAP forecast soundings indicate a dry boundary layer extending to 500 mb, which is being overspread by stronger mid-upper level flow and 30 kts of effective bulk shear (i.e. straight hodographs indicating speed shear). Organized, high-based multicells should traverse portions of the the northern Rockies, accompanied by mainly a severe gust threat. If confidence increases in greater coverage of severe gusts, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI... LAT...LON 45111508 46501254 47021071 47090875 46540812 45790811 45150871 44900926 44541039 44241175 44011271 43841336 43811402 43871457 45111508 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH Read more

MD 1617 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1617 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Areas affected...portions of western into central South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 091831Z - 092030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development appears imminent. Storms should gradually intensify through the afternoon, accompanied by a severe wind and hail threat. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will be needed in the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows deepening CU along the Black Hills in southwestern SD, where convective inhibition continues to rapidly erode with boundary-layer heating/mixing. MLCAPE is already reaching the 1500-2500 J/kg range ahead of the storms, with over 30 kts of effective bulk effective shear (and a straight hodograph) already in place (per 18Z mesoanalysis/UNR special observed sounding). Thunderstorms should develop shortly, and will soon after move over the more unstable/sheared airmass. Current thinking is that storms should remain more discrete for a few hours before attempting to grow upscale. Given steep low-level lapse rates, severe gusts are a concern (a few of which may exceed 75 mph), with the 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates and straight hodographs supporting severe hail potential as well. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be needed to address the increasing severe threat. ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...BYZ... LAT...LON 43080277 43930359 45510441 45770433 45870371 45640180 45120043 44360004 43700015 43270086 43000202 43080277 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening. Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as over central Montana. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities. ..Wendt.. 07/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph. Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO River in NE/IA. ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40 kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly underway. Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail. These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk within this more linear activity. ...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin... A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV) northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over south-central MT. ...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Read more