Severe Storms

WW 498 SEVERE TSTM ND NE SD 091945Z - 100300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 498 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-Central North Dakota Northwest into North-Central Nebraska Western and Central South Dakota * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated over the next few hours from the western Dakotas down into the Nebraska Panhandle. A few discrete supercells are possible within this region before evolving towards a more linear mode with time. One or more convective lines could then move eastward into more of the central Dakotas and north-central Nebraska, with strong to severe gusts as the primary risk. Some gusts over 75 mph are possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Bismarck ND to 40 miles southwest of Mullen NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 497... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Mosier Read more

MD 1621 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ND...CENTRAL SD...AND NORTH-CENTRAL NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1621 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Areas affected...South-central ND...central SD...and north-central NE Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498... Valid 092330Z - 100100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated/sporadic large hail and embedded severe wind gusts remain possible across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 498. While uncertain, there is some potential for eventual upscale growth into one or more clusters into tonight. DISCUSSION...Two disorganized clusters with transient/embedded deeper cores are drifting slowly east-southeastward across the Dakotas and northern NE this evening -- where periodic severe wind gusts and large hail are occurring. Weak large-scale forcing for ascent and strong buoyancy/steep deep-layer lapse rates have generally promoted outflow dominant storms with limited large-scale organization up to this point. Nevertheless, the strong buoyancy and long/generally straight hodographs (around 40 kt of effective shear) will continue to promote severe downbursts/outflow and sporadic large hail with the stronger embedded cores. While the weak forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on overall convective evolution, a gradually strengthening low-level jet may promote eventual upscale growth into one or more organized clusters into tonight. Confidence in this scenario is relatively higher for the southern area of storms currently over southern SD into northern NE -- as the low-level jet may tend to focus over this general region amid slightly stronger deep-layer shear. If this evolution can occur, the risk of severe wind gusts would increase with time, and a downstream watch would eventually be needed. ..Weinman.. 07/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 46990014 46129975 45229956 44219951 43219932 41729957 41330009 41310092 41320168 41740205 43040179 44910166 46500184 47180102 47180049 46990014 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorm development, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, remains possible tonight and could pose a risk for severe wind and hail across the northern Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley vicinity. ...01Z Update... ...Northern Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... Scattered, generally high-based strong thunderstorm development, which initiated within lee surface troughing across the northern high plains, has slowly propagated into the central Dakotas and Nebraska, in the presence of at least modestly sheared, but weak (10-20 kt) westerly deep-layer mean flow. Seasonably moist boundary-layer air (including 70+ F surface dew points) along a baroclinic zone across the central into eastern Dakotas and Nebraska is contributing to a corridor of moderate to strong potential instability, beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. However, the thermodynamic profiles include very warm elevated mixed-layer air (including 700 mb temperatures of +12 to 14 C), which will contribute to increasingly substantive inhibition with the onset of boundary-layer cooling. It remains unclear how long forcing for ascent will be sufficient to maintain ongoing convective development this evening, but a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, aided by boundary-layer decoupling, is forecast across western Kansas toward the mid Missouri Valley through 03-06Z. This would seem to offer better potential for the maintenance and perhaps intensification of the cluster now propagating south/southeast of Valentine NE. Otherwise, warm advection aided by the low-level jet could focus renewed thunderstorm initiation and upscale growth on the eastern periphery of the more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, across the southeastern South Dakota/eastern Nebraska/western Iowa vicinity later tonight. ..Kerr.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorm development, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, remains possible tonight and could pose a risk for severe wind and hail across the northern Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley vicinity. ...01Z Update... ...Northern Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... Scattered, generally high-based strong thunderstorm development, which initiated within lee surface troughing across the northern high plains, has slowly propagated into the central Dakotas and Nebraska, in the presence of at least modestly sheared, but weak (10-20 kt) westerly deep-layer mean flow. Seasonably moist boundary-layer air (including 70+ F surface dew points) along a baroclinic zone across the central into eastern Dakotas and Nebraska is contributing to a corridor of moderate to strong potential instability, beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. However, the thermodynamic profiles include very warm elevated mixed-layer air (including 700 mb temperatures of +12 to 14 C), which will contribute to increasingly substantive inhibition with the onset of boundary-layer cooling. It remains unclear how long forcing for ascent will be sufficient to maintain ongoing convective development this evening, but a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, aided by boundary-layer decoupling, is forecast across western Kansas toward the mid Missouri Valley through 03-06Z. This would seem to offer better potential for the maintenance and perhaps intensification of the cluster now propagating south/southeast of Valentine NE. Otherwise, warm advection aided by the low-level jet could focus renewed thunderstorm initiation and upscale growth on the eastern periphery of the more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, across the southeastern South Dakota/eastern Nebraska/western Iowa vicinity later tonight. ..Kerr.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorm development, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, remains possible tonight and could pose a risk for severe wind and hail across the northern Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley vicinity. ...01Z Update... ...Northern Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... Scattered, generally high-based strong thunderstorm development, which initiated within lee surface troughing across the northern high plains, has slowly propagated into the central Dakotas and Nebraska, in the presence of at least modestly sheared, but weak (10-20 kt) westerly deep-layer mean flow. Seasonably moist boundary-layer air (including 70+ F surface dew points) along a baroclinic zone across the central into eastern Dakotas and Nebraska is contributing to a corridor of moderate to strong potential instability, beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. However, the thermodynamic profiles include very warm elevated mixed-layer air (including 700 mb temperatures of +12 to 14 C), which will contribute to increasingly substantive inhibition with the onset of boundary-layer cooling. It remains unclear how long forcing for ascent will be sufficient to maintain ongoing convective development this evening, but a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, aided by boundary-layer decoupling, is forecast across western Kansas toward the mid Missouri Valley through 03-06Z. This would seem to offer better potential for the maintenance and perhaps intensification of the cluster now propagating south/southeast of Valentine NE. Otherwise, warm advection aided by the low-level jet could focus renewed thunderstorm initiation and upscale growth on the eastern periphery of the more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, across the southeastern South Dakota/eastern Nebraska/western Iowa vicinity later tonight. ..Kerr.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorm development, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, remains possible tonight and could pose a risk for severe wind and hail across the northern Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley vicinity. ...01Z Update... ...Northern Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... Scattered, generally high-based strong thunderstorm development, which initiated within lee surface troughing across the northern high plains, has slowly propagated into the central Dakotas and Nebraska, in the presence of at least modestly sheared, but weak (10-20 kt) westerly deep-layer mean flow. Seasonably moist boundary-layer air (including 70+ F surface dew points) along a baroclinic zone across the central into eastern Dakotas and Nebraska is contributing to a corridor of moderate to strong potential instability, beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. However, the thermodynamic profiles include very warm elevated mixed-layer air (including 700 mb temperatures of +12 to 14 C), which will contribute to increasingly substantive inhibition with the onset of boundary-layer cooling. It remains unclear how long forcing for ascent will be sufficient to maintain ongoing convective development this evening, but a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, aided by boundary-layer decoupling, is forecast across western Kansas toward the mid Missouri Valley through 03-06Z. This would seem to offer better potential for the maintenance and perhaps intensification of the cluster now propagating south/southeast of Valentine NE. Otherwise, warm advection aided by the low-level jet could focus renewed thunderstorm initiation and upscale growth on the eastern periphery of the more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, across the southeastern South Dakota/eastern Nebraska/western Iowa vicinity later tonight. ..Kerr.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorm development, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, remains possible tonight and could pose a risk for severe wind and hail across the northern Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley vicinity. ...01Z Update... ...Northern Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... Scattered, generally high-based strong thunderstorm development, which initiated within lee surface troughing across the northern high plains, has slowly propagated into the central Dakotas and Nebraska, in the presence of at least modestly sheared, but weak (10-20 kt) westerly deep-layer mean flow. Seasonably moist boundary-layer air (including 70+ F surface dew points) along a baroclinic zone across the central into eastern Dakotas and Nebraska is contributing to a corridor of moderate to strong potential instability, beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. However, the thermodynamic profiles include very warm elevated mixed-layer air (including 700 mb temperatures of +12 to 14 C), which will contribute to increasingly substantive inhibition with the onset of boundary-layer cooling. It remains unclear how long forcing for ascent will be sufficient to maintain ongoing convective development this evening, but a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, aided by boundary-layer decoupling, is forecast across western Kansas toward the mid Missouri Valley through 03-06Z. This would seem to offer better potential for the maintenance and perhaps intensification of the cluster now propagating south/southeast of Valentine NE. Otherwise, warm advection aided by the low-level jet could focus renewed thunderstorm initiation and upscale growth on the eastern periphery of the more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, across the southeastern South Dakota/eastern Nebraska/western Iowa vicinity later tonight. ..Kerr.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorm development, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, remains possible tonight and could pose a risk for severe wind and hail across the northern Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley vicinity. ...01Z Update... ...Northern Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... Scattered, generally high-based strong thunderstorm development, which initiated within lee surface troughing across the northern high plains, has slowly propagated into the central Dakotas and Nebraska, in the presence of at least modestly sheared, but weak (10-20 kt) westerly deep-layer mean flow. Seasonably moist boundary-layer air (including 70+ F surface dew points) along a baroclinic zone across the central into eastern Dakotas and Nebraska is contributing to a corridor of moderate to strong potential instability, beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. However, the thermodynamic profiles include very warm elevated mixed-layer air (including 700 mb temperatures of +12 to 14 C), which will contribute to increasingly substantive inhibition with the onset of boundary-layer cooling. It remains unclear how long forcing for ascent will be sufficient to maintain ongoing convective development this evening, but a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, aided by boundary-layer decoupling, is forecast across western Kansas toward the mid Missouri Valley through 03-06Z. This would seem to offer better potential for the maintenance and perhaps intensification of the cluster now propagating south/southeast of Valentine NE. Otherwise, warm advection aided by the low-level jet could focus renewed thunderstorm initiation and upscale growth on the eastern periphery of the more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, across the southeastern South Dakota/eastern Nebraska/western Iowa vicinity later tonight. ..Kerr.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorm development, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, remains possible tonight and could pose a risk for severe wind and hail across the northern Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley vicinity. ...01Z Update... ...Northern Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... Scattered, generally high-based strong thunderstorm development, which initiated within lee surface troughing across the northern high plains, has slowly propagated into the central Dakotas and Nebraska, in the presence of at least modestly sheared, but weak (10-20 kt) westerly deep-layer mean flow. Seasonably moist boundary-layer air (including 70+ F surface dew points) along a baroclinic zone across the central into eastern Dakotas and Nebraska is contributing to a corridor of moderate to strong potential instability, beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. However, the thermodynamic profiles include very warm elevated mixed-layer air (including 700 mb temperatures of +12 to 14 C), which will contribute to increasingly substantive inhibition with the onset of boundary-layer cooling. It remains unclear how long forcing for ascent will be sufficient to maintain ongoing convective development this evening, but a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, aided by boundary-layer decoupling, is forecast across western Kansas toward the mid Missouri Valley through 03-06Z. This would seem to offer better potential for the maintenance and perhaps intensification of the cluster now propagating south/southeast of Valentine NE. Otherwise, warm advection aided by the low-level jet could focus renewed thunderstorm initiation and upscale growth on the eastern periphery of the more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, across the southeastern South Dakota/eastern Nebraska/western Iowa vicinity later tonight. ..Kerr.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorm development, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, remains possible tonight and could pose a risk for severe wind and hail across the northern Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley vicinity. ...01Z Update... ...Northern Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... Scattered, generally high-based strong thunderstorm development, which initiated within lee surface troughing across the northern high plains, has slowly propagated into the central Dakotas and Nebraska, in the presence of at least modestly sheared, but weak (10-20 kt) westerly deep-layer mean flow. Seasonably moist boundary-layer air (including 70+ F surface dew points) along a baroclinic zone across the central into eastern Dakotas and Nebraska is contributing to a corridor of moderate to strong potential instability, beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. However, the thermodynamic profiles include very warm elevated mixed-layer air (including 700 mb temperatures of +12 to 14 C), which will contribute to increasingly substantive inhibition with the onset of boundary-layer cooling. It remains unclear how long forcing for ascent will be sufficient to maintain ongoing convective development this evening, but a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, aided by boundary-layer decoupling, is forecast across western Kansas toward the mid Missouri Valley through 03-06Z. This would seem to offer better potential for the maintenance and perhaps intensification of the cluster now propagating south/southeast of Valentine NE. Otherwise, warm advection aided by the low-level jet could focus renewed thunderstorm initiation and upscale growth on the eastern periphery of the more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, across the southeastern South Dakota/eastern Nebraska/western Iowa vicinity later tonight. ..Kerr.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorm development, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, remains possible tonight and could pose a risk for severe wind and hail across the northern Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley vicinity. ...01Z Update... ...Northern Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... Scattered, generally high-based strong thunderstorm development, which initiated within lee surface troughing across the northern high plains, has slowly propagated into the central Dakotas and Nebraska, in the presence of at least modestly sheared, but weak (10-20 kt) westerly deep-layer mean flow. Seasonably moist boundary-layer air (including 70+ F surface dew points) along a baroclinic zone across the central into eastern Dakotas and Nebraska is contributing to a corridor of moderate to strong potential instability, beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. However, the thermodynamic profiles include very warm elevated mixed-layer air (including 700 mb temperatures of +12 to 14 C), which will contribute to increasingly substantive inhibition with the onset of boundary-layer cooling. It remains unclear how long forcing for ascent will be sufficient to maintain ongoing convective development this evening, but a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, aided by boundary-layer decoupling, is forecast across western Kansas toward the mid Missouri Valley through 03-06Z. This would seem to offer better potential for the maintenance and perhaps intensification of the cluster now propagating south/southeast of Valentine NE. Otherwise, warm advection aided by the low-level jet could focus renewed thunderstorm initiation and upscale growth on the eastern periphery of the more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, across the southeastern South Dakota/eastern Nebraska/western Iowa vicinity later tonight. ..Kerr.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorm development, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, remains possible tonight and could pose a risk for severe wind and hail across the northern Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley vicinity. ...01Z Update... ...Northern Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... Scattered, generally high-based strong thunderstorm development, which initiated within lee surface troughing across the northern high plains, has slowly propagated into the central Dakotas and Nebraska, in the presence of at least modestly sheared, but weak (10-20 kt) westerly deep-layer mean flow. Seasonably moist boundary-layer air (including 70+ F surface dew points) along a baroclinic zone across the central into eastern Dakotas and Nebraska is contributing to a corridor of moderate to strong potential instability, beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. However, the thermodynamic profiles include very warm elevated mixed-layer air (including 700 mb temperatures of +12 to 14 C), which will contribute to increasingly substantive inhibition with the onset of boundary-layer cooling. It remains unclear how long forcing for ascent will be sufficient to maintain ongoing convective development this evening, but a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, aided by boundary-layer decoupling, is forecast across western Kansas toward the mid Missouri Valley through 03-06Z. This would seem to offer better potential for the maintenance and perhaps intensification of the cluster now propagating south/southeast of Valentine NE. Otherwise, warm advection aided by the low-level jet could focus renewed thunderstorm initiation and upscale growth on the eastern periphery of the more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, across the southeastern South Dakota/eastern Nebraska/western Iowa vicinity later tonight. ..Kerr.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorm development, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, remains possible tonight and could pose a risk for severe wind and hail across the northern Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley vicinity. ...01Z Update... ...Northern Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... Scattered, generally high-based strong thunderstorm development, which initiated within lee surface troughing across the northern high plains, has slowly propagated into the central Dakotas and Nebraska, in the presence of at least modestly sheared, but weak (10-20 kt) westerly deep-layer mean flow. Seasonably moist boundary-layer air (including 70+ F surface dew points) along a baroclinic zone across the central into eastern Dakotas and Nebraska is contributing to a corridor of moderate to strong potential instability, beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. However, the thermodynamic profiles include very warm elevated mixed-layer air (including 700 mb temperatures of +12 to 14 C), which will contribute to increasingly substantive inhibition with the onset of boundary-layer cooling. It remains unclear how long forcing for ascent will be sufficient to maintain ongoing convective development this evening, but a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, aided by boundary-layer decoupling, is forecast across western Kansas toward the mid Missouri Valley through 03-06Z. This would seem to offer better potential for the maintenance and perhaps intensification of the cluster now propagating south/southeast of Valentine NE. Otherwise, warm advection aided by the low-level jet could focus renewed thunderstorm initiation and upscale growth on the eastern periphery of the more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, across the southeastern South Dakota/eastern Nebraska/western Iowa vicinity later tonight. ..Kerr.. 07/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorm development, perhaps including an organizing cluster or two, remains possible tonight and could pose a risk for severe wind and hail across the northern Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley vicinity. ...01Z Update... ...Northern Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley... Scattered, generally high-based strong thunderstorm development, which initiated within lee surface troughing across the northern high plains, has slowly propagated into the central Dakotas and Nebraska, in the presence of at least modestly sheared, but weak (10-20 kt) westerly deep-layer mean flow. Seasonably moist boundary-layer air (including 70+ F surface dew points) along a baroclinic zone across the central into eastern Dakotas and Nebraska is contributing to a corridor of moderate to strong potential instability, beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. However, the thermodynamic profiles include very warm elevated mixed-layer air (including 700 mb temperatures of +12 to 14 C), which will contribute to increasingly substantive inhibition with the onset of boundary-layer cooling. It remains unclear how long forcing for ascent will be sufficient to maintain ongoing convective development this evening, but a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, aided by boundary-layer decoupling, is forecast across western Kansas toward the mid Missouri Valley through 03-06Z. This would seem to offer better potential for the maintenance and perhaps intensification of the cluster now propagating south/southeast of Valentine NE. Otherwise, warm advection aided by the low-level jet could focus renewed thunderstorm initiation and upscale growth on the eastern periphery of the more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, across the southeastern South Dakota/eastern Nebraska/western Iowa vicinity later tonight. ..Kerr.. 07/10/2025 Read more

WW 0498 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 498 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE SNY TO 30 W VTN TO 10 NW PHP TO 65 ENE GCC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1621 ..WEINMAN..07/10/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...CYS...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 498 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-017-031-069-075-091-103-113-115-117-149-161-171- 100140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN CHERRY GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEYA PAHA LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON ROCK SHERIDAN THOMAS NDC001-015-029-037-041-057-059-065-085-100140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BURLEIGH EMMONS GRANT HETTINGER MERCER MORTON OLIVER SIOUX Read more

WW 0500 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0500 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0499 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 499 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S NHK TO 30 ENE BWI TO 20 E ABE. ..SPC..07/10/25 ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 499 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-100140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC011-019-029-035-039-041-045-047-100140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE DORCHESTER KENT QUEEN ANNE'S SOMERSET TALBOT WICOMICO WORCESTER NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-019-021-023-025-029-033-035-100140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER Read more

WW 0497 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW GSO TO 35 SSE CHO TO 40 SSW DCA TO 25 W DCA TO 35 SSW CXY. ..SPC..07/09/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...CTP...RLX...AKQ...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-092340- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-025-027-031-033-037-510-092340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY NCC033-157-092340- Read more

WW 0497 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW GSO TO 35 SSE CHO TO 40 SSW DCA TO 25 W DCA TO 35 SSW CXY. ..SPC..07/09/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...CTP...RLX...AKQ...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-092340- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-025-027-031-033-037-510-092340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY NCC033-157-092340- Read more

WW 0497 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW GSO TO 35 SSE CHO TO 40 SSW DCA TO 25 W DCA TO 35 SSW CXY. ..SPC..07/09/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...CTP...RLX...AKQ...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-092340- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-025-027-031-033-037-510-092340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY NCC033-157-092340- Read more