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1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
...Synopsis...
A weak upper shortwave trough will move across the Southeast on
Friday. While strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread
the region, quality boundary-layer moisture will remain just
offshore over the Gulf of Mexico given a lack of any appreciable
surface cyclogenesis inland. This will preclude surface-based
instability. Modest midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft
will provide support for weak elevated instability and isolated
thunderstorms are possible. However, severe storms appear unlikely.
A broad upper trough will continue to slowly develop southward over
the Pacific Northwest and CA/NV. Cool temperatures aloft will result
in steep midlevel lapse rates and very weak instability. This should
be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent amid a
moist airmass along the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast.
..Leitman.. 02/28/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
...Synopsis...
A weak upper shortwave trough will move across the Southeast on
Friday. While strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread
the region, quality boundary-layer moisture will remain just
offshore over the Gulf of Mexico given a lack of any appreciable
surface cyclogenesis inland. This will preclude surface-based
instability. Modest midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft
will provide support for weak elevated instability and isolated
thunderstorms are possible. However, severe storms appear unlikely.
A broad upper trough will continue to slowly develop southward over
the Pacific Northwest and CA/NV. Cool temperatures aloft will result
in steep midlevel lapse rates and very weak instability. This should
be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent amid a
moist airmass along the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast.
..Leitman.. 02/28/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
...Synopsis...
A weak upper shortwave trough will move across the Southeast on
Friday. While strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread
the region, quality boundary-layer moisture will remain just
offshore over the Gulf of Mexico given a lack of any appreciable
surface cyclogenesis inland. This will preclude surface-based
instability. Modest midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft
will provide support for weak elevated instability and isolated
thunderstorms are possible. However, severe storms appear unlikely.
A broad upper trough will continue to slowly develop southward over
the Pacific Northwest and CA/NV. Cool temperatures aloft will result
in steep midlevel lapse rates and very weak instability. This should
be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent amid a
moist airmass along the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast.
..Leitman.. 02/28/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
...Synopsis...
A weak upper shortwave trough will move across the Southeast on
Friday. While strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread
the region, quality boundary-layer moisture will remain just
offshore over the Gulf of Mexico given a lack of any appreciable
surface cyclogenesis inland. This will preclude surface-based
instability. Modest midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft
will provide support for weak elevated instability and isolated
thunderstorms are possible. However, severe storms appear unlikely.
A broad upper trough will continue to slowly develop southward over
the Pacific Northwest and CA/NV. Cool temperatures aloft will result
in steep midlevel lapse rates and very weak instability. This should
be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent amid a
moist airmass along the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast.
..Leitman.. 02/28/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
...Synopsis...
A weak upper shortwave trough will move across the Southeast on
Friday. While strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread
the region, quality boundary-layer moisture will remain just
offshore over the Gulf of Mexico given a lack of any appreciable
surface cyclogenesis inland. This will preclude surface-based
instability. Modest midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft
will provide support for weak elevated instability and isolated
thunderstorms are possible. However, severe storms appear unlikely.
A broad upper trough will continue to slowly develop southward over
the Pacific Northwest and CA/NV. Cool temperatures aloft will result
in steep midlevel lapse rates and very weak instability. This should
be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent amid a
moist airmass along the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast.
..Leitman.. 02/28/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
...Synopsis...
A weak upper shortwave trough will move across the Southeast on
Friday. While strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread
the region, quality boundary-layer moisture will remain just
offshore over the Gulf of Mexico given a lack of any appreciable
surface cyclogenesis inland. This will preclude surface-based
instability. Modest midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft
will provide support for weak elevated instability and isolated
thunderstorms are possible. However, severe storms appear unlikely.
A broad upper trough will continue to slowly develop southward over
the Pacific Northwest and CA/NV. Cool temperatures aloft will result
in steep midlevel lapse rates and very weak instability. This should
be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent amid a
moist airmass along the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast.
..Leitman.. 02/28/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
...Synopsis...
A weak upper shortwave trough will move across the Southeast on
Friday. While strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread
the region, quality boundary-layer moisture will remain just
offshore over the Gulf of Mexico given a lack of any appreciable
surface cyclogenesis inland. This will preclude surface-based
instability. Modest midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft
will provide support for weak elevated instability and isolated
thunderstorms are possible. However, severe storms appear unlikely.
A broad upper trough will continue to slowly develop southward over
the Pacific Northwest and CA/NV. Cool temperatures aloft will result
in steep midlevel lapse rates and very weak instability. This should
be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent amid a
moist airmass along the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast.
..Leitman.. 02/28/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.
...Synopsis...
A weak upper shortwave trough will move across the Southeast on
Friday. While strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread
the region, quality boundary-layer moisture will remain just
offshore over the Gulf of Mexico given a lack of any appreciable
surface cyclogenesis inland. This will preclude surface-based
instability. Modest midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft
will provide support for weak elevated instability and isolated
thunderstorms are possible. However, severe storms appear unlikely.
A broad upper trough will continue to slowly develop southward over
the Pacific Northwest and CA/NV. Cool temperatures aloft will result
in steep midlevel lapse rates and very weak instability. This should
be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent amid a
moist airmass along the Pacific Northwest/northern CA coast.
..Leitman.. 02/28/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
MD 0170 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 27... FOR LOWER OHIO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0170
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
Areas affected...Lower Ohio Valley
Concerning...Tornado Watch 27...
Valid 280550Z - 280715Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 27 continues.
SUMMARY...Frontal, and prefrontal convection is expected to
gradually increase over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Surface front is surging southeast across IL and
currently arcs from near DNV-SAR. Over the last hour or so,
convection has gradually increased along/ahead of the immediate wind
shift, especially west-southwest of HUF to Effingham. Lightning is
increasing with this activity, and trailing midlevel convection
across central IL suggests large-scale ascent is overspreading this
region. Given these trends, convection may continue to increase near
the front as it surges toward southwest IN.
..Darrow.. 02/28/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38178991 39758741 39558635 37938891 38178991
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024
Valid 291200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the
southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure
will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the
morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of
the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of
the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal
passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will
result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless,
midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley
ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly
sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in
development of weak elevated instability during the evening and
overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from
eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not
expected.
Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will
overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures
aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability
that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening.
..Leitman.. 02/28/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024
Valid 291200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the
southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure
will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the
morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of
the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of
the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal
passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will
result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless,
midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley
ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly
sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in
development of weak elevated instability during the evening and
overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from
eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not
expected.
Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will
overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures
aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability
that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening.
..Leitman.. 02/28/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024
Valid 291200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the
southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure
will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the
morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of
the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of
the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal
passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will
result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless,
midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley
ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly
sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in
development of weak elevated instability during the evening and
overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from
eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not
expected.
Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will
overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures
aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability
that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening.
..Leitman.. 02/28/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024
Valid 291200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the
southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure
will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the
morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of
the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of
the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal
passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will
result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless,
midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley
ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly
sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in
development of weak elevated instability during the evening and
overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from
eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not
expected.
Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will
overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures
aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability
that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening.
..Leitman.. 02/28/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024
Valid 291200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the
southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure
will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the
morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of
the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of
the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal
passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will
result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless,
midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley
ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly
sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in
development of weak elevated instability during the evening and
overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from
eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not
expected.
Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will
overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures
aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability
that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening.
..Leitman.. 02/28/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024
Valid 291200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the
southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure
will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the
morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of
the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of
the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal
passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will
result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless,
midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley
ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly
sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in
development of weak elevated instability during the evening and
overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from
eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not
expected.
Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will
overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures
aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability
that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening.
..Leitman.. 02/28/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024
Valid 291200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the
southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure
will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the
morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of
the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of
the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal
passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will
result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless,
midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley
ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly
sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in
development of weak elevated instability during the evening and
overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from
eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not
expected.
Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will
overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures
aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability
that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening.
..Leitman.. 02/28/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024
Valid 291200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the
southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure
will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the
morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of
the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of
the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal
passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will
result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless,
midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley
ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly
sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in
development of weak elevated instability during the evening and
overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from
eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not
expected.
Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will
overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures
aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability
that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening.
..Leitman.. 02/28/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024
Valid 291200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the
southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure
will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the
morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of
the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of
the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal
passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will
result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless,
midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley
ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly
sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in
development of weak elevated instability during the evening and
overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from
eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not
expected.
Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will
overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures
aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability
that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening.
..Leitman.. 02/28/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024
Valid 291200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the
southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure
will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the
morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of
the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of
the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal
passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will
result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless,
midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley
ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly
sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in
development of weak elevated instability during the evening and
overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from
eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not
expected.
Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will
overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures
aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability
that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening.
..Leitman.. 02/28/2024
Read more
1 year 6 months ago
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024
Valid 291200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
A weak upper shortwave trough will pivot east/northeast from the
southern Plains to the Mid-South on Thursday. Surface high pressure
will be centered over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys during the
morning, shifting eastward to the Mid-Atlantic through the end of
the period. This will result in continental trajectories for much of
the period across the Southeast. Additionally, a cold frontal
passage into the Gulf of Mexico in the Day 2/Wed time period will
result in a dearth of boundary-layer moisture. Nevertheless,
midlevel moisture will increase across TX and the Lower MS Valley
ahead of the upper shortwave with the modest southwesterly
sub-tropical jet. Modest mid-level lapse rates will further aid in
development of weak elevated instability during the evening and
overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from
eastern TX into southern/central MS, though severe potential is not
expected.
Further west, a somewhat broad and low-amplitude upper trough will
overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Cold temperatures
aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will provide meager instability
that may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening.
..Leitman.. 02/28/2024
Read more
Checked
5 years 11 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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