Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions continue to appear likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow. However, fuels also remain moist due to recent rainfall. Therefore, no fire-weather areas have been highlighted. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a secondary shortwave will rotate through the long wave trough, bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas. Though afternoon sustained winds around 15-25 mph will likely overlap Elevated to near-Critical relative humidity, fuels within these regions remain moist with portions of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles receiving recent rainfall. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions continue to appear likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow. However, fuels also remain moist due to recent rainfall. Therefore, no fire-weather areas have been highlighted. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a secondary shortwave will rotate through the long wave trough, bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas. Though afternoon sustained winds around 15-25 mph will likely overlap Elevated to near-Critical relative humidity, fuels within these regions remain moist with portions of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles receiving recent rainfall. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday over parts of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast vicinity... A warm advection regime will be maintained for much of the period as fast southwesterly deep-layer flow streams across the region ahead of a mid/upper trough ejecting east from the Plains toward the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop east/southeast across the vicinity during the afternoon and overnight hours. Vertical shear profiles typically supporting organized thunderstorms, and conditionally supercells, will overlap the region. However, despite upper 60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints spreading north and east across southern AL/GA and northern FL, limited heating and poor lapse rates will limit instability, with only pockets or a narrow corridor of surface-based instability anticipated. The better thermodynamic environment will remain offshore the central Gulf Coast. Some stronger cells may develop over the near-shore waters and move inland across southern AL, the FL Panhandle and perhaps as far north as southwest GA. A couple strong gusts or a tornado could accompany any stronger cells moving inland. Maintaining stronger updrafts further inland will be difficult and the northward extent of severe potential should diminish quickly. ..Leitman.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday over parts of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast vicinity... A warm advection regime will be maintained for much of the period as fast southwesterly deep-layer flow streams across the region ahead of a mid/upper trough ejecting east from the Plains toward the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop east/southeast across the vicinity during the afternoon and overnight hours. Vertical shear profiles typically supporting organized thunderstorms, and conditionally supercells, will overlap the region. However, despite upper 60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints spreading north and east across southern AL/GA and northern FL, limited heating and poor lapse rates will limit instability, with only pockets or a narrow corridor of surface-based instability anticipated. The better thermodynamic environment will remain offshore the central Gulf Coast. Some stronger cells may develop over the near-shore waters and move inland across southern AL, the FL Panhandle and perhaps as far north as southwest GA. A couple strong gusts or a tornado could accompany any stronger cells moving inland. Maintaining stronger updrafts further inland will be difficult and the northward extent of severe potential should diminish quickly. ..Leitman.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday over parts of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast vicinity... A warm advection regime will be maintained for much of the period as fast southwesterly deep-layer flow streams across the region ahead of a mid/upper trough ejecting east from the Plains toward the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop east/southeast across the vicinity during the afternoon and overnight hours. Vertical shear profiles typically supporting organized thunderstorms, and conditionally supercells, will overlap the region. However, despite upper 60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints spreading north and east across southern AL/GA and northern FL, limited heating and poor lapse rates will limit instability, with only pockets or a narrow corridor of surface-based instability anticipated. The better thermodynamic environment will remain offshore the central Gulf Coast. Some stronger cells may develop over the near-shore waters and move inland across southern AL, the FL Panhandle and perhaps as far north as southwest GA. A couple strong gusts or a tornado could accompany any stronger cells moving inland. Maintaining stronger updrafts further inland will be difficult and the northward extent of severe potential should diminish quickly. ..Leitman.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday over parts of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast vicinity... A warm advection regime will be maintained for much of the period as fast southwesterly deep-layer flow streams across the region ahead of a mid/upper trough ejecting east from the Plains toward the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop east/southeast across the vicinity during the afternoon and overnight hours. Vertical shear profiles typically supporting organized thunderstorms, and conditionally supercells, will overlap the region. However, despite upper 60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints spreading north and east across southern AL/GA and northern FL, limited heating and poor lapse rates will limit instability, with only pockets or a narrow corridor of surface-based instability anticipated. The better thermodynamic environment will remain offshore the central Gulf Coast. Some stronger cells may develop over the near-shore waters and move inland across southern AL, the FL Panhandle and perhaps as far north as southwest GA. A couple strong gusts or a tornado could accompany any stronger cells moving inland. Maintaining stronger updrafts further inland will be difficult and the northward extent of severe potential should diminish quickly. ..Leitman.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday over parts of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast vicinity... A warm advection regime will be maintained for much of the period as fast southwesterly deep-layer flow streams across the region ahead of a mid/upper trough ejecting east from the Plains toward the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop east/southeast across the vicinity during the afternoon and overnight hours. Vertical shear profiles typically supporting organized thunderstorms, and conditionally supercells, will overlap the region. However, despite upper 60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints spreading north and east across southern AL/GA and northern FL, limited heating and poor lapse rates will limit instability, with only pockets or a narrow corridor of surface-based instability anticipated. The better thermodynamic environment will remain offshore the central Gulf Coast. Some stronger cells may develop over the near-shore waters and move inland across southern AL, the FL Panhandle and perhaps as far north as southwest GA. A couple strong gusts or a tornado could accompany any stronger cells moving inland. Maintaining stronger updrafts further inland will be difficult and the northward extent of severe potential should diminish quickly. ..Leitman.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday over parts of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast vicinity... A warm advection regime will be maintained for much of the period as fast southwesterly deep-layer flow streams across the region ahead of a mid/upper trough ejecting east from the Plains toward the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop east/southeast across the vicinity during the afternoon and overnight hours. Vertical shear profiles typically supporting organized thunderstorms, and conditionally supercells, will overlap the region. However, despite upper 60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints spreading north and east across southern AL/GA and northern FL, limited heating and poor lapse rates will limit instability, with only pockets or a narrow corridor of surface-based instability anticipated. The better thermodynamic environment will remain offshore the central Gulf Coast. Some stronger cells may develop over the near-shore waters and move inland across southern AL, the FL Panhandle and perhaps as far north as southwest GA. A couple strong gusts or a tornado could accompany any stronger cells moving inland. Maintaining stronger updrafts further inland will be difficult and the northward extent of severe potential should diminish quickly. ..Leitman.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast for minimal fire weather concerns remains on track. See previous forecast below. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... A deepening trough and associated belt of increased mid-level flow will continue to drive the weather across much of the CONUS today. Strong west-southwesterly flow aloft across the southern Rockies will favor breezy downslope winds across the High Plains, though relative humidity will remain around 30-40 percent. This in combination with cooler temperatures and moist fuels will keep fire concerns low. Further west, surface high pressure building across the Great Basin will bring offshore flow across portions of Southern California. Very strong winds are likely in the morning hours across the mountains in Santa Barbra and Ventura counties. Relative humidity will remain above thresholds for concern despite strong winds. Localized Elevated fire weather will be possible in the afternoon across favored downslope regions, where afternoon minimum relative humidity around 20-30 percent may overlap sustained winds 20-25 mph. Given the localized nature of this threat and generally cool forecast temperatures, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast for minimal fire weather concerns remains on track. See previous forecast below. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... A deepening trough and associated belt of increased mid-level flow will continue to drive the weather across much of the CONUS today. Strong west-southwesterly flow aloft across the southern Rockies will favor breezy downslope winds across the High Plains, though relative humidity will remain around 30-40 percent. This in combination with cooler temperatures and moist fuels will keep fire concerns low. Further west, surface high pressure building across the Great Basin will bring offshore flow across portions of Southern California. Very strong winds are likely in the morning hours across the mountains in Santa Barbra and Ventura counties. Relative humidity will remain above thresholds for concern despite strong winds. Localized Elevated fire weather will be possible in the afternoon across favored downslope regions, where afternoon minimum relative humidity around 20-30 percent may overlap sustained winds 20-25 mph. Given the localized nature of this threat and generally cool forecast temperatures, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast for minimal fire weather concerns remains on track. See previous forecast below. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... A deepening trough and associated belt of increased mid-level flow will continue to drive the weather across much of the CONUS today. Strong west-southwesterly flow aloft across the southern Rockies will favor breezy downslope winds across the High Plains, though relative humidity will remain around 30-40 percent. This in combination with cooler temperatures and moist fuels will keep fire concerns low. Further west, surface high pressure building across the Great Basin will bring offshore flow across portions of Southern California. Very strong winds are likely in the morning hours across the mountains in Santa Barbra and Ventura counties. Relative humidity will remain above thresholds for concern despite strong winds. Localized Elevated fire weather will be possible in the afternoon across favored downslope regions, where afternoon minimum relative humidity around 20-30 percent may overlap sustained winds 20-25 mph. Given the localized nature of this threat and generally cool forecast temperatures, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast for minimal fire weather concerns remains on track. See previous forecast below. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... A deepening trough and associated belt of increased mid-level flow will continue to drive the weather across much of the CONUS today. Strong west-southwesterly flow aloft across the southern Rockies will favor breezy downslope winds across the High Plains, though relative humidity will remain around 30-40 percent. This in combination with cooler temperatures and moist fuels will keep fire concerns low. Further west, surface high pressure building across the Great Basin will bring offshore flow across portions of Southern California. Very strong winds are likely in the morning hours across the mountains in Santa Barbra and Ventura counties. Relative humidity will remain above thresholds for concern despite strong winds. Localized Elevated fire weather will be possible in the afternoon across favored downslope regions, where afternoon minimum relative humidity around 20-30 percent may overlap sustained winds 20-25 mph. Given the localized nature of this threat and generally cool forecast temperatures, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast for minimal fire weather concerns remains on track. See previous forecast below. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... A deepening trough and associated belt of increased mid-level flow will continue to drive the weather across much of the CONUS today. Strong west-southwesterly flow aloft across the southern Rockies will favor breezy downslope winds across the High Plains, though relative humidity will remain around 30-40 percent. This in combination with cooler temperatures and moist fuels will keep fire concerns low. Further west, surface high pressure building across the Great Basin will bring offshore flow across portions of Southern California. Very strong winds are likely in the morning hours across the mountains in Santa Barbra and Ventura counties. Relative humidity will remain above thresholds for concern despite strong winds. Localized Elevated fire weather will be possible in the afternoon across favored downslope regions, where afternoon minimum relative humidity around 20-30 percent may overlap sustained winds 20-25 mph. Given the localized nature of this threat and generally cool forecast temperatures, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast for minimal fire weather concerns remains on track. See previous forecast below. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... A deepening trough and associated belt of increased mid-level flow will continue to drive the weather across much of the CONUS today. Strong west-southwesterly flow aloft across the southern Rockies will favor breezy downslope winds across the High Plains, though relative humidity will remain around 30-40 percent. This in combination with cooler temperatures and moist fuels will keep fire concerns low. Further west, surface high pressure building across the Great Basin will bring offshore flow across portions of Southern California. Very strong winds are likely in the morning hours across the mountains in Santa Barbra and Ventura counties. Relative humidity will remain above thresholds for concern despite strong winds. Localized Elevated fire weather will be possible in the afternoon across favored downslope regions, where afternoon minimum relative humidity around 20-30 percent may overlap sustained winds 20-25 mph. Given the localized nature of this threat and generally cool forecast temperatures, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A line of thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL Panhandle. These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits. This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer and weaken. Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach the western Gulf later this afternoon. Slight strengthening of southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms. There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight. Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for this scenario at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this risk. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A line of thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL Panhandle. These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits. This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer and weaken. Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach the western Gulf later this afternoon. Slight strengthening of southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms. There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight. Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for this scenario at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this risk. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A line of thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL Panhandle. These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits. This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer and weaken. Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach the western Gulf later this afternoon. Slight strengthening of southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms. There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight. Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for this scenario at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this risk. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A line of thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL Panhandle. These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits. This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer and weaken. Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach the western Gulf later this afternoon. Slight strengthening of southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms. There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight. Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for this scenario at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this risk. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A line of thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL Panhandle. These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits. This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer and weaken. Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach the western Gulf later this afternoon. Slight strengthening of southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms. There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight. Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for this scenario at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this risk. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A line of thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL Panhandle. These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits. This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer and weaken. Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach the western Gulf later this afternoon. Slight strengthening of southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms. There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight. Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for this scenario at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this risk. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/01/2023 Read more