Severe Storms

MD 2296 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2296 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Areas affected...parts of southeastern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011335Z - 011530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Potential for locally strong wind gusts, or perhaps a brief tornado, may still not be completely negligible with the ongoing cluster of thunderstorms spreading across/northeast and east of the Gulfport MS vicinity. However, this limited severe weather threat appears likely to diminish as convection weakens through mid morning. DISCUSSION...Although convective intensities have been generally modest, a persistent cluster of thunderstorms has exhibited organized structure during the past few hours as it develops east-northeastward within 40+ kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. Activity appears rooted above a shallow stable near-surface layer, supported by forcing for ascent associated with warm advection, beneath a divergent upper flow field between the polar and subtropical jets. To this point, the severe weather potential probably has been limited by weak lapse rates above the stable surface layer, which is only supporting weak CAPE (as evident in 12Z raob from LIX). While forecast soundings suggest that there will be a gradual modification of the boundary-layer inland of coastal areas ahead of the line into mid to late morning, a 40-50 kt south-southwesterly 850 mb jet still roughly coincident with the line is forecast to continue to shift away from coastal areas into the western slopes of the Appalachians. As this occurs, weakening low-level forcing for ascent and gradually shrinking low-level hodographs are expected to result in diminishing convective trends. ..Kerr/Edwards.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 30458931 31628789 31408715 30718726 30338804 29828916 30128945 30458931 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a series of shortwaves will traverse broader, progressive troughing over the western CONUS. As that occurs, an initially well-developed, negatively tilted shortwave trough over western IL will eject northeastward and weaken considerably, reaching parts of PA/NY by 00Z. A weaker, convectively augmented perturbation and associated vorticity lobe -- evident in moisture- channel and composited radar imagery over southern portions of MS/LA -- will also eject away from the Gulf Coast region, likely moving offshore from the Carolinas and GA around 00Z. In response to these developments, weak height rises are expected over the western/ central Gulf Coast region. A surface low related to the leading shortwave trough was analyzed at 11Z over central MO, with cold front across southwestern MO, the OK/AR border region, east TX, and near the lower/middle TX Coast. By 00Z, the low should be weakening and located near the IL/IN border, having been rapidly outrun by the mid/upper wave. The cold front should extend south-southwestward down the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi Valleys to the LCH vicinity, temporarily stalling or drifting southeastward near the upper TX Coast and just offshore the remainder of the TX Coast through the day. A weak frontal-wave low may develop over southwestern/central LA this evening, then ripple northeastward along the front. By 12Z, the younger low should be over central/east-central MS -- roughly between JAN-MEI -- with cold front near BTR and LFT, to shelf waters offshore from the TX Coast. ...Gulf Coastal Plain, Lower Delta... A prefrontal, southwest/northeast-oriented band of thunderstorms is ongoing from the LA Coast south-southwest of LFT across I-12 between BTR-SIL, becoming more diffuse into southeastern MS. Activity within the band should continue moving quickly northeastward, outpacing a marine/warm front initially apparent over the Lake Pontchartrain and BTR areas. However, embedded cells in the Atchafalaya River region and southwestward should remain in the slowly northeastward-expanding warm sector for at least a few more hours, potentially accessing surface-based effective-inflow parcels. As a combination of theta-e advection and muted diurnal heating strengthen low-level lapse rates/buoyancy somewhat, large-scale support will weaken, as will winds near the top of the boundary layer, shrinking hodographs. While deep shear will remain favorable into afternoon, the other counterbalancing factors, amid a training convective mode, suggest embedded supercell potential, but with severe threat being too uncertain and conditional for more than marginal probabilities. Another round of strong to isolated/embedded severe thunderstorms is possible tonight along or just ahead of the cold front. Somewhat rejuvenated but still marginal severe gust/tornado potential is expected overnight as: 1. The prefrontal boundary from the early convection retreats diffusely inland over LA/MS/AL, 2. Strengthening gradient flow aloft leads to greater deep shear, and 3. The LLJ increases again, lengthening and somewhat enlarging hodographs. Offsetting processes will include weak low/middle-level lapse rates (though with upper 60s/low-70s surface dewpoints, MLCAPE may remain near 1000 J/kg into much of the night), as well as weak near-surface winds and the presence of generally messy convective modes. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a series of shortwaves will traverse broader, progressive troughing over the western CONUS. As that occurs, an initially well-developed, negatively tilted shortwave trough over western IL will eject northeastward and weaken considerably, reaching parts of PA/NY by 00Z. A weaker, convectively augmented perturbation and associated vorticity lobe -- evident in moisture- channel and composited radar imagery over southern portions of MS/LA -- will also eject away from the Gulf Coast region, likely moving offshore from the Carolinas and GA around 00Z. In response to these developments, weak height rises are expected over the western/ central Gulf Coast region. A surface low related to the leading shortwave trough was analyzed at 11Z over central MO, with cold front across southwestern MO, the OK/AR border region, east TX, and near the lower/middle TX Coast. By 00Z, the low should be weakening and located near the IL/IN border, having been rapidly outrun by the mid/upper wave. The cold front should extend south-southwestward down the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi Valleys to the LCH vicinity, temporarily stalling or drifting southeastward near the upper TX Coast and just offshore the remainder of the TX Coast through the day. A weak frontal-wave low may develop over southwestern/central LA this evening, then ripple northeastward along the front. By 12Z, the younger low should be over central/east-central MS -- roughly between JAN-MEI -- with cold front near BTR and LFT, to shelf waters offshore from the TX Coast. ...Gulf Coastal Plain, Lower Delta... A prefrontal, southwest/northeast-oriented band of thunderstorms is ongoing from the LA Coast south-southwest of LFT across I-12 between BTR-SIL, becoming more diffuse into southeastern MS. Activity within the band should continue moving quickly northeastward, outpacing a marine/warm front initially apparent over the Lake Pontchartrain and BTR areas. However, embedded cells in the Atchafalaya River region and southwestward should remain in the slowly northeastward-expanding warm sector for at least a few more hours, potentially accessing surface-based effective-inflow parcels. As a combination of theta-e advection and muted diurnal heating strengthen low-level lapse rates/buoyancy somewhat, large-scale support will weaken, as will winds near the top of the boundary layer, shrinking hodographs. While deep shear will remain favorable into afternoon, the other counterbalancing factors, amid a training convective mode, suggest embedded supercell potential, but with severe threat being too uncertain and conditional for more than marginal probabilities. Another round of strong to isolated/embedded severe thunderstorms is possible tonight along or just ahead of the cold front. Somewhat rejuvenated but still marginal severe gust/tornado potential is expected overnight as: 1. The prefrontal boundary from the early convection retreats diffusely inland over LA/MS/AL, 2. Strengthening gradient flow aloft leads to greater deep shear, and 3. The LLJ increases again, lengthening and somewhat enlarging hodographs. Offsetting processes will include weak low/middle-level lapse rates (though with upper 60s/low-70s surface dewpoints, MLCAPE may remain near 1000 J/kg into much of the night), as well as weak near-surface winds and the presence of generally messy convective modes. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a series of shortwaves will traverse broader, progressive troughing over the western CONUS. As that occurs, an initially well-developed, negatively tilted shortwave trough over western IL will eject northeastward and weaken considerably, reaching parts of PA/NY by 00Z. A weaker, convectively augmented perturbation and associated vorticity lobe -- evident in moisture- channel and composited radar imagery over southern portions of MS/LA -- will also eject away from the Gulf Coast region, likely moving offshore from the Carolinas and GA around 00Z. In response to these developments, weak height rises are expected over the western/ central Gulf Coast region. A surface low related to the leading shortwave trough was analyzed at 11Z over central MO, with cold front across southwestern MO, the OK/AR border region, east TX, and near the lower/middle TX Coast. By 00Z, the low should be weakening and located near the IL/IN border, having been rapidly outrun by the mid/upper wave. The cold front should extend south-southwestward down the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi Valleys to the LCH vicinity, temporarily stalling or drifting southeastward near the upper TX Coast and just offshore the remainder of the TX Coast through the day. A weak frontal-wave low may develop over southwestern/central LA this evening, then ripple northeastward along the front. By 12Z, the younger low should be over central/east-central MS -- roughly between JAN-MEI -- with cold front near BTR and LFT, to shelf waters offshore from the TX Coast. ...Gulf Coastal Plain, Lower Delta... A prefrontal, southwest/northeast-oriented band of thunderstorms is ongoing from the LA Coast south-southwest of LFT across I-12 between BTR-SIL, becoming more diffuse into southeastern MS. Activity within the band should continue moving quickly northeastward, outpacing a marine/warm front initially apparent over the Lake Pontchartrain and BTR areas. However, embedded cells in the Atchafalaya River region and southwestward should remain in the slowly northeastward-expanding warm sector for at least a few more hours, potentially accessing surface-based effective-inflow parcels. As a combination of theta-e advection and muted diurnal heating strengthen low-level lapse rates/buoyancy somewhat, large-scale support will weaken, as will winds near the top of the boundary layer, shrinking hodographs. While deep shear will remain favorable into afternoon, the other counterbalancing factors, amid a training convective mode, suggest embedded supercell potential, but with severe threat being too uncertain and conditional for more than marginal probabilities. Another round of strong to isolated/embedded severe thunderstorms is possible tonight along or just ahead of the cold front. Somewhat rejuvenated but still marginal severe gust/tornado potential is expected overnight as: 1. The prefrontal boundary from the early convection retreats diffusely inland over LA/MS/AL, 2. Strengthening gradient flow aloft leads to greater deep shear, and 3. The LLJ increases again, lengthening and somewhat enlarging hodographs. Offsetting processes will include weak low/middle-level lapse rates (though with upper 60s/low-70s surface dewpoints, MLCAPE may remain near 1000 J/kg into much of the night), as well as weak near-surface winds and the presence of generally messy convective modes. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a series of shortwaves will traverse broader, progressive troughing over the western CONUS. As that occurs, an initially well-developed, negatively tilted shortwave trough over western IL will eject northeastward and weaken considerably, reaching parts of PA/NY by 00Z. A weaker, convectively augmented perturbation and associated vorticity lobe -- evident in moisture- channel and composited radar imagery over southern portions of MS/LA -- will also eject away from the Gulf Coast region, likely moving offshore from the Carolinas and GA around 00Z. In response to these developments, weak height rises are expected over the western/ central Gulf Coast region. A surface low related to the leading shortwave trough was analyzed at 11Z over central MO, with cold front across southwestern MO, the OK/AR border region, east TX, and near the lower/middle TX Coast. By 00Z, the low should be weakening and located near the IL/IN border, having been rapidly outrun by the mid/upper wave. The cold front should extend south-southwestward down the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi Valleys to the LCH vicinity, temporarily stalling or drifting southeastward near the upper TX Coast and just offshore the remainder of the TX Coast through the day. A weak frontal-wave low may develop over southwestern/central LA this evening, then ripple northeastward along the front. By 12Z, the younger low should be over central/east-central MS -- roughly between JAN-MEI -- with cold front near BTR and LFT, to shelf waters offshore from the TX Coast. ...Gulf Coastal Plain, Lower Delta... A prefrontal, southwest/northeast-oriented band of thunderstorms is ongoing from the LA Coast south-southwest of LFT across I-12 between BTR-SIL, becoming more diffuse into southeastern MS. Activity within the band should continue moving quickly northeastward, outpacing a marine/warm front initially apparent over the Lake Pontchartrain and BTR areas. However, embedded cells in the Atchafalaya River region and southwestward should remain in the slowly northeastward-expanding warm sector for at least a few more hours, potentially accessing surface-based effective-inflow parcels. As a combination of theta-e advection and muted diurnal heating strengthen low-level lapse rates/buoyancy somewhat, large-scale support will weaken, as will winds near the top of the boundary layer, shrinking hodographs. While deep shear will remain favorable into afternoon, the other counterbalancing factors, amid a training convective mode, suggest embedded supercell potential, but with severe threat being too uncertain and conditional for more than marginal probabilities. Another round of strong to isolated/embedded severe thunderstorms is possible tonight along or just ahead of the cold front. Somewhat rejuvenated but still marginal severe gust/tornado potential is expected overnight as: 1. The prefrontal boundary from the early convection retreats diffusely inland over LA/MS/AL, 2. Strengthening gradient flow aloft leads to greater deep shear, and 3. The LLJ increases again, lengthening and somewhat enlarging hodographs. Offsetting processes will include weak low/middle-level lapse rates (though with upper 60s/low-70s surface dewpoints, MLCAPE may remain near 1000 J/kg into much of the night), as well as weak near-surface winds and the presence of generally messy convective modes. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a series of shortwaves will traverse broader, progressive troughing over the western CONUS. As that occurs, an initially well-developed, negatively tilted shortwave trough over western IL will eject northeastward and weaken considerably, reaching parts of PA/NY by 00Z. A weaker, convectively augmented perturbation and associated vorticity lobe -- evident in moisture- channel and composited radar imagery over southern portions of MS/LA -- will also eject away from the Gulf Coast region, likely moving offshore from the Carolinas and GA around 00Z. In response to these developments, weak height rises are expected over the western/ central Gulf Coast region. A surface low related to the leading shortwave trough was analyzed at 11Z over central MO, with cold front across southwestern MO, the OK/AR border region, east TX, and near the lower/middle TX Coast. By 00Z, the low should be weakening and located near the IL/IN border, having been rapidly outrun by the mid/upper wave. The cold front should extend south-southwestward down the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi Valleys to the LCH vicinity, temporarily stalling or drifting southeastward near the upper TX Coast and just offshore the remainder of the TX Coast through the day. A weak frontal-wave low may develop over southwestern/central LA this evening, then ripple northeastward along the front. By 12Z, the younger low should be over central/east-central MS -- roughly between JAN-MEI -- with cold front near BTR and LFT, to shelf waters offshore from the TX Coast. ...Gulf Coastal Plain, Lower Delta... A prefrontal, southwest/northeast-oriented band of thunderstorms is ongoing from the LA Coast south-southwest of LFT across I-12 between BTR-SIL, becoming more diffuse into southeastern MS. Activity within the band should continue moving quickly northeastward, outpacing a marine/warm front initially apparent over the Lake Pontchartrain and BTR areas. However, embedded cells in the Atchafalaya River region and southwestward should remain in the slowly northeastward-expanding warm sector for at least a few more hours, potentially accessing surface-based effective-inflow parcels. As a combination of theta-e advection and muted diurnal heating strengthen low-level lapse rates/buoyancy somewhat, large-scale support will weaken, as will winds near the top of the boundary layer, shrinking hodographs. While deep shear will remain favorable into afternoon, the other counterbalancing factors, amid a training convective mode, suggest embedded supercell potential, but with severe threat being too uncertain and conditional for more than marginal probabilities. Another round of strong to isolated/embedded severe thunderstorms is possible tonight along or just ahead of the cold front. Somewhat rejuvenated but still marginal severe gust/tornado potential is expected overnight as: 1. The prefrontal boundary from the early convection retreats diffusely inland over LA/MS/AL, 2. Strengthening gradient flow aloft leads to greater deep shear, and 3. The LLJ increases again, lengthening and somewhat enlarging hodographs. Offsetting processes will include weak low/middle-level lapse rates (though with upper 60s/low-70s surface dewpoints, MLCAPE may remain near 1000 J/kg into much of the night), as well as weak near-surface winds and the presence of generally messy convective modes. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a series of shortwaves will traverse broader, progressive troughing over the western CONUS. As that occurs, an initially well-developed, negatively tilted shortwave trough over western IL will eject northeastward and weaken considerably, reaching parts of PA/NY by 00Z. A weaker, convectively augmented perturbation and associated vorticity lobe -- evident in moisture- channel and composited radar imagery over southern portions of MS/LA -- will also eject away from the Gulf Coast region, likely moving offshore from the Carolinas and GA around 00Z. In response to these developments, weak height rises are expected over the western/ central Gulf Coast region. A surface low related to the leading shortwave trough was analyzed at 11Z over central MO, with cold front across southwestern MO, the OK/AR border region, east TX, and near the lower/middle TX Coast. By 00Z, the low should be weakening and located near the IL/IN border, having been rapidly outrun by the mid/upper wave. The cold front should extend south-southwestward down the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi Valleys to the LCH vicinity, temporarily stalling or drifting southeastward near the upper TX Coast and just offshore the remainder of the TX Coast through the day. A weak frontal-wave low may develop over southwestern/central LA this evening, then ripple northeastward along the front. By 12Z, the younger low should be over central/east-central MS -- roughly between JAN-MEI -- with cold front near BTR and LFT, to shelf waters offshore from the TX Coast. ...Gulf Coastal Plain, Lower Delta... A prefrontal, southwest/northeast-oriented band of thunderstorms is ongoing from the LA Coast south-southwest of LFT across I-12 between BTR-SIL, becoming more diffuse into southeastern MS. Activity within the band should continue moving quickly northeastward, outpacing a marine/warm front initially apparent over the Lake Pontchartrain and BTR areas. However, embedded cells in the Atchafalaya River region and southwestward should remain in the slowly northeastward-expanding warm sector for at least a few more hours, potentially accessing surface-based effective-inflow parcels. As a combination of theta-e advection and muted diurnal heating strengthen low-level lapse rates/buoyancy somewhat, large-scale support will weaken, as will winds near the top of the boundary layer, shrinking hodographs. While deep shear will remain favorable into afternoon, the other counterbalancing factors, amid a training convective mode, suggest embedded supercell potential, but with severe threat being too uncertain and conditional for more than marginal probabilities. Another round of strong to isolated/embedded severe thunderstorms is possible tonight along or just ahead of the cold front. Somewhat rejuvenated but still marginal severe gust/tornado potential is expected overnight as: 1. The prefrontal boundary from the early convection retreats diffusely inland over LA/MS/AL, 2. Strengthening gradient flow aloft leads to greater deep shear, and 3. The LLJ increases again, lengthening and somewhat enlarging hodographs. Offsetting processes will include weak low/middle-level lapse rates (though with upper 60s/low-70s surface dewpoints, MLCAPE may remain near 1000 J/kg into much of the night), as well as weak near-surface winds and the presence of generally messy convective modes. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a series of shortwaves will traverse broader, progressive troughing over the western CONUS. As that occurs, an initially well-developed, negatively tilted shortwave trough over western IL will eject northeastward and weaken considerably, reaching parts of PA/NY by 00Z. A weaker, convectively augmented perturbation and associated vorticity lobe -- evident in moisture- channel and composited radar imagery over southern portions of MS/LA -- will also eject away from the Gulf Coast region, likely moving offshore from the Carolinas and GA around 00Z. In response to these developments, weak height rises are expected over the western/ central Gulf Coast region. A surface low related to the leading shortwave trough was analyzed at 11Z over central MO, with cold front across southwestern MO, the OK/AR border region, east TX, and near the lower/middle TX Coast. By 00Z, the low should be weakening and located near the IL/IN border, having been rapidly outrun by the mid/upper wave. The cold front should extend south-southwestward down the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi Valleys to the LCH vicinity, temporarily stalling or drifting southeastward near the upper TX Coast and just offshore the remainder of the TX Coast through the day. A weak frontal-wave low may develop over southwestern/central LA this evening, then ripple northeastward along the front. By 12Z, the younger low should be over central/east-central MS -- roughly between JAN-MEI -- with cold front near BTR and LFT, to shelf waters offshore from the TX Coast. ...Gulf Coastal Plain, Lower Delta... A prefrontal, southwest/northeast-oriented band of thunderstorms is ongoing from the LA Coast south-southwest of LFT across I-12 between BTR-SIL, becoming more diffuse into southeastern MS. Activity within the band should continue moving quickly northeastward, outpacing a marine/warm front initially apparent over the Lake Pontchartrain and BTR areas. However, embedded cells in the Atchafalaya River region and southwestward should remain in the slowly northeastward-expanding warm sector for at least a few more hours, potentially accessing surface-based effective-inflow parcels. As a combination of theta-e advection and muted diurnal heating strengthen low-level lapse rates/buoyancy somewhat, large-scale support will weaken, as will winds near the top of the boundary layer, shrinking hodographs. While deep shear will remain favorable into afternoon, the other counterbalancing factors, amid a training convective mode, suggest embedded supercell potential, but with severe threat being too uncertain and conditional for more than marginal probabilities. Another round of strong to isolated/embedded severe thunderstorms is possible tonight along or just ahead of the cold front. Somewhat rejuvenated but still marginal severe gust/tornado potential is expected overnight as: 1. The prefrontal boundary from the early convection retreats diffusely inland over LA/MS/AL, 2. Strengthening gradient flow aloft leads to greater deep shear, and 3. The LLJ increases again, lengthening and somewhat enlarging hodographs. Offsetting processes will include weak low/middle-level lapse rates (though with upper 60s/low-70s surface dewpoints, MLCAPE may remain near 1000 J/kg into much of the night), as well as weak near-surface winds and the presence of generally messy convective modes. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 12/01/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... On Monday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move through the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances southward across the Florida Peninsula. In the wake of the trough, a dry airmass will be in place across most of the continental United States. This will likely limit thunderstorm potential through mid week. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... Moisture return is forecast to take place over the Texas Coastal Plains on Thursday, and in parts of the southern Plains on Friday. However, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move across the central U.S., which would limit thunderstorm potential in most areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... On Monday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move through the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances southward across the Florida Peninsula. In the wake of the trough, a dry airmass will be in place across most of the continental United States. This will likely limit thunderstorm potential through mid week. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... Moisture return is forecast to take place over the Texas Coastal Plains on Thursday, and in parts of the southern Plains on Friday. However, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move across the central U.S., which would limit thunderstorm potential in most areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... On Monday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move through the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances southward across the Florida Peninsula. In the wake of the trough, a dry airmass will be in place across most of the continental United States. This will likely limit thunderstorm potential through mid week. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... Moisture return is forecast to take place over the Texas Coastal Plains on Thursday, and in parts of the southern Plains on Friday. However, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move across the central U.S., which would limit thunderstorm potential in most areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... On Monday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move through the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances southward across the Florida Peninsula. In the wake of the trough, a dry airmass will be in place across most of the continental United States. This will likely limit thunderstorm potential through mid week. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... Moisture return is forecast to take place over the Texas Coastal Plains on Thursday, and in parts of the southern Plains on Friday. However, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move across the central U.S., which would limit thunderstorm potential in most areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... On Monday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move through the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances southward across the Florida Peninsula. In the wake of the trough, a dry airmass will be in place across most of the continental United States. This will likely limit thunderstorm potential through mid week. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... Moisture return is forecast to take place over the Texas Coastal Plains on Thursday, and in parts of the southern Plains on Friday. However, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move across the central U.S., which would limit thunderstorm potential in most areas. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas, but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A trough at mid-levels will remain over the central U.S. on Sunday, as southwesterly flow continues over the eastern U.S. A moist airmass will be in place from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day within this moist airmass. However, instability is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorm development is not expected. ..Broyles.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas, but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A trough at mid-levels will remain over the central U.S. on Sunday, as southwesterly flow continues over the eastern U.S. A moist airmass will be in place from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day within this moist airmass. However, instability is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorm development is not expected. ..Broyles.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas, but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A trough at mid-levels will remain over the central U.S. on Sunday, as southwesterly flow continues over the eastern U.S. A moist airmass will be in place from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day within this moist airmass. However, instability is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorm development is not expected. ..Broyles.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas, but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A trough at mid-levels will remain over the central U.S. on Sunday, as southwesterly flow continues over the eastern U.S. A moist airmass will be in place from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day within this moist airmass. However, instability is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorm development is not expected. ..Broyles.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas, but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A trough at mid-levels will remain over the central U.S. on Sunday, as southwesterly flow continues over the eastern U.S. A moist airmass will be in place from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day within this moist airmass. However, instability is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorm development is not expected. ..Broyles.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a secondary shortwave will rotate through the long wave trough, bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas. Though afternoon sustained winds around 15-25 mph will likely overlap Elevated to near-Critical relative humidity, fuels within these regions remain moist with portions of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles receiving recent rainfall. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a secondary shortwave will rotate through the long wave trough, bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas. Though afternoon sustained winds around 15-25 mph will likely overlap Elevated to near-Critical relative humidity, fuels within these regions remain moist with portions of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles receiving recent rainfall. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more