Severe Storms

MD 2298 CONCERNING OUTLOOK UPGRADE FOR CENTRAL GULF COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 2298 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0613 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 020013Z - 020145Z SUMMARY...A level 2-Slight Risk will be added with the upcoming 01Z outlook across the central Gulf Coast for the potential of a couple tornadic storms tonight. In the short-term, a gradual increase in the threat for a low-probability brief tornado and locally strong gusts of 40-55 mph should occur across coastal/southern LA through late evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm cluster ongoing south of the mouth of the Sabine River should eventually spread northeast towards coastal southern LA. Strong speed shear in the mid to upper-level wind profile will be conducive to updraft rotation, and a few transient/embedded supercells should evolve as the cluster progresses inland amid a modestly unstable air mass characterized by MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg. Low-level wind profiles are currently the limiting factor to a more robust severe threat per time-series of KLCH/TMSY VWP data and the 00Z LIX sounding. 18Z ECMWF and NAM guidance along with the 21Z RAP suggest that low-level flow will increase, especially after 06Z. As such, confidence is low in whether an appreciable tornado threat can be realized this evening, suggesting that watch potential is unlikely in the near-term. But as low-level SRH increases with enlarging hodographs, observational data will be closely monitored for the possibility of a tornado watch later tonight. ..Grams/Smith.. 12/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29609272 30039220 30868856 30898775 30648746 30268779 29258982 29149168 29609272 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 1 23:31:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 1 23:31:02 UTC 2023.

MD 2297 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2297 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Areas affected...middle and upper Texas Coast into portions of western Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012129Z - 012330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms along a coastal front may eventually grow upscale into a more organized cluster capable of damaging winds or a brief tornado. Confidence in storm evolution and the subsequent severe risk is low. DISCUSSION...As of 2120 UTC, afternoon observations showed thunderstorms developing along a coastal front across portions of the middle TX Coast. Located ahead of a subtle shortwave impulse embedded within broad southwesterly flow aloft, the coastal front has slowly been lifting northward through the day. While the majority of the open warm sector should remain offshore for the next couple of hours, weak low-level warm advection may allow for continued thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening across the upper TX coast and into parts of southwestern LA. Modified RAP sounding show 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with 35-45 kt of effective shear could support a few organized storms, including short bowing segments or supercells. Hi-res guidance also suggests a few stronger storms, with a risk for damaging gusts or a brief tornado, could evolve as they track along the coastal front late this afternoon. However, confidence in sustained organized storms staying near-surface based is low given the lack of broader-scale forcing for ascent and the slow movement of the front. However, this could change later tonight as the main shortwave and increasing mass response from the low-level jet bolster low-level WAA. Trends will be monitored, but currently, a weather watch appears unlikely given the narrow warm sector and limited potential for surface-based storm organization. ..Lyons/Hart.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... LAT...LON 31089273 30999204 30699195 30379199 29999213 29629230 29549247 29489275 29259398 29079451 28619532 28579587 28629605 28859617 29109608 29729539 30379451 30829338 31089273 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough moves southeast through the central Rockies and overspreads strong mid-level winds and the pressure gradient tightens across the region. Currently fuels are not favorable for fire spread given recent rainfall in the region. However, dry conditions and sunny skies today and Saturday could lead to fine, dormant fuels becoming more receptive. However, at this time, that seems unlikely. Beyond Sunday, a mid-level ridge becomes well established across the central CONUS. This will result in some dry and breezy conditions across the eastern CONUS, but temperatures will be cold and fuels will be moist. Therefore, there will be no fire weather concerns. This pattern will bring several wet storm systems to the Pacific Northwest and mostly dry conditions from southern California across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. This may lead to drying of some fine fuels, especially in the southern High Plains, but winds should be light. Therefore, fire weather concerns are minimal. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough moves southeast through the central Rockies and overspreads strong mid-level winds and the pressure gradient tightens across the region. Currently fuels are not favorable for fire spread given recent rainfall in the region. However, dry conditions and sunny skies today and Saturday could lead to fine, dormant fuels becoming more receptive. However, at this time, that seems unlikely. Beyond Sunday, a mid-level ridge becomes well established across the central CONUS. This will result in some dry and breezy conditions across the eastern CONUS, but temperatures will be cold and fuels will be moist. Therefore, there will be no fire weather concerns. This pattern will bring several wet storm systems to the Pacific Northwest and mostly dry conditions from southern California across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. This may lead to drying of some fine fuels, especially in the southern High Plains, but winds should be light. Therefore, fire weather concerns are minimal. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough moves southeast through the central Rockies and overspreads strong mid-level winds and the pressure gradient tightens across the region. Currently fuels are not favorable for fire spread given recent rainfall in the region. However, dry conditions and sunny skies today and Saturday could lead to fine, dormant fuels becoming more receptive. However, at this time, that seems unlikely. Beyond Sunday, a mid-level ridge becomes well established across the central CONUS. This will result in some dry and breezy conditions across the eastern CONUS, but temperatures will be cold and fuels will be moist. Therefore, there will be no fire weather concerns. This pattern will bring several wet storm systems to the Pacific Northwest and mostly dry conditions from southern California across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. This may lead to drying of some fine fuels, especially in the southern High Plains, but winds should be light. Therefore, fire weather concerns are minimal. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough moves southeast through the central Rockies and overspreads strong mid-level winds and the pressure gradient tightens across the region. Currently fuels are not favorable for fire spread given recent rainfall in the region. However, dry conditions and sunny skies today and Saturday could lead to fine, dormant fuels becoming more receptive. However, at this time, that seems unlikely. Beyond Sunday, a mid-level ridge becomes well established across the central CONUS. This will result in some dry and breezy conditions across the eastern CONUS, but temperatures will be cold and fuels will be moist. Therefore, there will be no fire weather concerns. This pattern will bring several wet storm systems to the Pacific Northwest and mostly dry conditions from southern California across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. This may lead to drying of some fine fuels, especially in the southern High Plains, but winds should be light. Therefore, fire weather concerns are minimal. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough moves southeast through the central Rockies and overspreads strong mid-level winds and the pressure gradient tightens across the region. Currently fuels are not favorable for fire spread given recent rainfall in the region. However, dry conditions and sunny skies today and Saturday could lead to fine, dormant fuels becoming more receptive. However, at this time, that seems unlikely. Beyond Sunday, a mid-level ridge becomes well established across the central CONUS. This will result in some dry and breezy conditions across the eastern CONUS, but temperatures will be cold and fuels will be moist. Therefore, there will be no fire weather concerns. This pattern will bring several wet storm systems to the Pacific Northwest and mostly dry conditions from southern California across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. This may lead to drying of some fine fuels, especially in the southern High Plains, but winds should be light. Therefore, fire weather concerns are minimal. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough moves southeast through the central Rockies and overspreads strong mid-level winds and the pressure gradient tightens across the region. Currently fuels are not favorable for fire spread given recent rainfall in the region. However, dry conditions and sunny skies today and Saturday could lead to fine, dormant fuels becoming more receptive. However, at this time, that seems unlikely. Beyond Sunday, a mid-level ridge becomes well established across the central CONUS. This will result in some dry and breezy conditions across the eastern CONUS, but temperatures will be cold and fuels will be moist. Therefore, there will be no fire weather concerns. This pattern will bring several wet storm systems to the Pacific Northwest and mostly dry conditions from southern California across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. This may lead to drying of some fine fuels, especially in the southern High Plains, but winds should be light. Therefore, fire weather concerns are minimal. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...20z Update... No changes have been made with the 20z update. Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase this evening around/after 00z as the surface cold front begins to advance east/southeast. While vertical shear will remain favorable conditionally for supercells, low-level thermodynamics continue to be problematic. Low-level lapse rates will remain poor and point forecast soundings continue to indicate at least modest low-level inhibition through the evening. Additionally, 0-1 km shear is forecast to remain below 15 kt. Furthermore, forecast guidance continues to differ in the location of a marine front near the LA coast this evening/tonight. While a small corridor of relative greater risk may develop somewhere between Lafayette to Baton Rouge to New Orleans for a couple of hours this evening, overall low/conditional risk combined with uncertainty preclude an outlook upgrade at this time. Nevertheless, an intense cell or two may produce locally strong gusts or a tornado. ..Leitman.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A line of thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL Panhandle. These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits. This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer and weaken. Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach the western Gulf later this afternoon. Slight strengthening of southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms. There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight. Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for this scenario at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...20z Update... No changes have been made with the 20z update. Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase this evening around/after 00z as the surface cold front begins to advance east/southeast. While vertical shear will remain favorable conditionally for supercells, low-level thermodynamics continue to be problematic. Low-level lapse rates will remain poor and point forecast soundings continue to indicate at least modest low-level inhibition through the evening. Additionally, 0-1 km shear is forecast to remain below 15 kt. Furthermore, forecast guidance continues to differ in the location of a marine front near the LA coast this evening/tonight. While a small corridor of relative greater risk may develop somewhere between Lafayette to Baton Rouge to New Orleans for a couple of hours this evening, overall low/conditional risk combined with uncertainty preclude an outlook upgrade at this time. Nevertheless, an intense cell or two may produce locally strong gusts or a tornado. ..Leitman.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A line of thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL Panhandle. These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits. This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer and weaken. Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach the western Gulf later this afternoon. Slight strengthening of southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms. There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight. Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for this scenario at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...20z Update... No changes have been made with the 20z update. Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase this evening around/after 00z as the surface cold front begins to advance east/southeast. While vertical shear will remain favorable conditionally for supercells, low-level thermodynamics continue to be problematic. Low-level lapse rates will remain poor and point forecast soundings continue to indicate at least modest low-level inhibition through the evening. Additionally, 0-1 km shear is forecast to remain below 15 kt. Furthermore, forecast guidance continues to differ in the location of a marine front near the LA coast this evening/tonight. While a small corridor of relative greater risk may develop somewhere between Lafayette to Baton Rouge to New Orleans for a couple of hours this evening, overall low/conditional risk combined with uncertainty preclude an outlook upgrade at this time. Nevertheless, an intense cell or two may produce locally strong gusts or a tornado. ..Leitman.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A line of thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL Panhandle. These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits. This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer and weaken. Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach the western Gulf later this afternoon. Slight strengthening of southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms. There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight. Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for this scenario at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...20z Update... No changes have been made with the 20z update. Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase this evening around/after 00z as the surface cold front begins to advance east/southeast. While vertical shear will remain favorable conditionally for supercells, low-level thermodynamics continue to be problematic. Low-level lapse rates will remain poor and point forecast soundings continue to indicate at least modest low-level inhibition through the evening. Additionally, 0-1 km shear is forecast to remain below 15 kt. Furthermore, forecast guidance continues to differ in the location of a marine front near the LA coast this evening/tonight. While a small corridor of relative greater risk may develop somewhere between Lafayette to Baton Rouge to New Orleans for a couple of hours this evening, overall low/conditional risk combined with uncertainty preclude an outlook upgrade at this time. Nevertheless, an intense cell or two may produce locally strong gusts or a tornado. ..Leitman.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A line of thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL Panhandle. These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits. This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer and weaken. Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach the western Gulf later this afternoon. Slight strengthening of southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms. There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight. Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for this scenario at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...20z Update... No changes have been made with the 20z update. Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase this evening around/after 00z as the surface cold front begins to advance east/southeast. While vertical shear will remain favorable conditionally for supercells, low-level thermodynamics continue to be problematic. Low-level lapse rates will remain poor and point forecast soundings continue to indicate at least modest low-level inhibition through the evening. Additionally, 0-1 km shear is forecast to remain below 15 kt. Furthermore, forecast guidance continues to differ in the location of a marine front near the LA coast this evening/tonight. While a small corridor of relative greater risk may develop somewhere between Lafayette to Baton Rouge to New Orleans for a couple of hours this evening, overall low/conditional risk combined with uncertainty preclude an outlook upgrade at this time. Nevertheless, an intense cell or two may produce locally strong gusts or a tornado. ..Leitman.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A line of thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL Panhandle. These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits. This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer and weaken. Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach the western Gulf later this afternoon. Slight strengthening of southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms. There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight. Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for this scenario at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this risk. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...20z Update... No changes have been made with the 20z update. Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase this evening around/after 00z as the surface cold front begins to advance east/southeast. While vertical shear will remain favorable conditionally for supercells, low-level thermodynamics continue to be problematic. Low-level lapse rates will remain poor and point forecast soundings continue to indicate at least modest low-level inhibition through the evening. Additionally, 0-1 km shear is forecast to remain below 15 kt. Furthermore, forecast guidance continues to differ in the location of a marine front near the LA coast this evening/tonight. While a small corridor of relative greater risk may develop somewhere between Lafayette to Baton Rouge to New Orleans for a couple of hours this evening, overall low/conditional risk combined with uncertainty preclude an outlook upgrade at this time. Nevertheless, an intense cell or two may produce locally strong gusts or a tornado. ..Leitman.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A line of thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL Panhandle. These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits. This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer and weaken. Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach the western Gulf later this afternoon. Slight strengthening of southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms. There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight. Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for this scenario at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this risk. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions continue to appear likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow. However, fuels also remain moist due to recent rainfall. Therefore, no fire-weather areas have been highlighted. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a secondary shortwave will rotate through the long wave trough, bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas. Though afternoon sustained winds around 15-25 mph will likely overlap Elevated to near-Critical relative humidity, fuels within these regions remain moist with portions of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles receiving recent rainfall. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions continue to appear likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow. However, fuels also remain moist due to recent rainfall. Therefore, no fire-weather areas have been highlighted. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a secondary shortwave will rotate through the long wave trough, bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas. Though afternoon sustained winds around 15-25 mph will likely overlap Elevated to near-Critical relative humidity, fuels within these regions remain moist with portions of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles receiving recent rainfall. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions continue to appear likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow. However, fuels also remain moist due to recent rainfall. Therefore, no fire-weather areas have been highlighted. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a secondary shortwave will rotate through the long wave trough, bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas. Though afternoon sustained winds around 15-25 mph will likely overlap Elevated to near-Critical relative humidity, fuels within these regions remain moist with portions of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles receiving recent rainfall. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions continue to appear likely across portions of the southern High Plains tomorrow. However, fuels also remain moist due to recent rainfall. Therefore, no fire-weather areas have been highlighted. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a secondary shortwave will rotate through the long wave trough, bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas. Though afternoon sustained winds around 15-25 mph will likely overlap Elevated to near-Critical relative humidity, fuels within these regions remain moist with portions of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles receiving recent rainfall. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more