Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing upper trough over the eastern US, a weak trough over the southern Plains should lift north into the central US. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern US will drive strong southerly return flow across parts of OK KS and NE this afternoon. Warm and dry surface conditions will also be present supporting potential for critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central Plains... With the approach of the weak upper low, surface pressure gradients are forecast to quickly tighten over the southern and central Plains. Surface winds will quickly increase to 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 30-35 mph through the day. Aided by clear skies and strong heating, afternoon RH values within the dry southerly flow should fall as low as 15-20%. While area fuel loading is not particularly dense, numerous days of preceding dry and windy conditions have resulted in critical dryness of short-hour fuels. Large vapor pressure deficits combined with the strong winds and clear skies should support additional drying through the day. Thus, widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of north-central/northeast KS into southeastern NE. ...Gulf Coast... Dry surface conditions are also possible across parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast in the wake of the departing cold front. While winds are not overly strong, lower humidity should overlap with areas of limited rainfall in recent weeks. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible before rain chances increase late tonight into Friday. ..Lyons.. 02/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Isolated thunderstorm chances will continue across parts of the Southeast and FL on Saturday as a weak shortwave impulse migrates across the region. Surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s across the FL Peninsula are expected. However, a warm and dry layer aloft will limit surface-based instability, with MLCAPE generally less than 750 J/kg. Large-scale ascent also will remain weak across the region. Overall severe potential appears low. Across the western U.S., the upper trough along the Pacific Coast will continue to slowly develop south and east. Isolated thunderstorms may persist near the OR coast and into parts northern CA ..Leitman.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Isolated thunderstorm chances will continue across parts of the Southeast and FL on Saturday as a weak shortwave impulse migrates across the region. Surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s across the FL Peninsula are expected. However, a warm and dry layer aloft will limit surface-based instability, with MLCAPE generally less than 750 J/kg. Large-scale ascent also will remain weak across the region. Overall severe potential appears low. Across the western U.S., the upper trough along the Pacific Coast will continue to slowly develop south and east. Isolated thunderstorms may persist near the OR coast and into parts northern CA ..Leitman.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Isolated thunderstorm chances will continue across parts of the Southeast and FL on Saturday as a weak shortwave impulse migrates across the region. Surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s across the FL Peninsula are expected. However, a warm and dry layer aloft will limit surface-based instability, with MLCAPE generally less than 750 J/kg. Large-scale ascent also will remain weak across the region. Overall severe potential appears low. Across the western U.S., the upper trough along the Pacific Coast will continue to slowly develop south and east. Isolated thunderstorms may persist near the OR coast and into parts northern CA ..Leitman.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Isolated thunderstorm chances will continue across parts of the Southeast and FL on Saturday as a weak shortwave impulse migrates across the region. Surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s across the FL Peninsula are expected. However, a warm and dry layer aloft will limit surface-based instability, with MLCAPE generally less than 750 J/kg. Large-scale ascent also will remain weak across the region. Overall severe potential appears low. Across the western U.S., the upper trough along the Pacific Coast will continue to slowly develop south and east. Isolated thunderstorms may persist near the OR coast and into parts northern CA ..Leitman.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Isolated thunderstorm chances will continue across parts of the Southeast and FL on Saturday as a weak shortwave impulse migrates across the region. Surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s across the FL Peninsula are expected. However, a warm and dry layer aloft will limit surface-based instability, with MLCAPE generally less than 750 J/kg. Large-scale ascent also will remain weak across the region. Overall severe potential appears low. Across the western U.S., the upper trough along the Pacific Coast will continue to slowly develop south and east. Isolated thunderstorms may persist near the OR coast and into parts northern CA ..Leitman.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will migrate from the Lower MS Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Friday. Only very weak surface low development may occur near or just offshore the central Gulf Coast in response to the upper wave. Most forecast guidance keeps any deeper boundary-layer moisture offshore. Cloud cover will inhibit much warming during the day, along with ongoing showers and thunderstorms. Though modest midlevel lapse rates will reside over the region, surface-based destabilization is not expected and at least a weak low-level inversion is depicted in most forecast soundings. Nevertheless, minor elevated instability will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity. Some gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms given strong flow not far above the near-surface layer, but overall severe potential appears low given poor low-level thermodynamics. Across the western U.S., a persistent, broad upper trough will continue to impact the Pacific Northwest vicinity. Strong deep-layers westerly flow will maintain a deep moist layer. Cold temperature aloft will also result in steep lapse rates and sufficient instability to support isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent along the WA/OR coast and into northern CA. ..Leitman.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will migrate from the Lower MS Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Friday. Only very weak surface low development may occur near or just offshore the central Gulf Coast in response to the upper wave. Most forecast guidance keeps any deeper boundary-layer moisture offshore. Cloud cover will inhibit much warming during the day, along with ongoing showers and thunderstorms. Though modest midlevel lapse rates will reside over the region, surface-based destabilization is not expected and at least a weak low-level inversion is depicted in most forecast soundings. Nevertheless, minor elevated instability will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity. Some gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms given strong flow not far above the near-surface layer, but overall severe potential appears low given poor low-level thermodynamics. Across the western U.S., a persistent, broad upper trough will continue to impact the Pacific Northwest vicinity. Strong deep-layers westerly flow will maintain a deep moist layer. Cold temperature aloft will also result in steep lapse rates and sufficient instability to support isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent along the WA/OR coast and into northern CA. ..Leitman.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will migrate from the Lower MS Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Friday. Only very weak surface low development may occur near or just offshore the central Gulf Coast in response to the upper wave. Most forecast guidance keeps any deeper boundary-layer moisture offshore. Cloud cover will inhibit much warming during the day, along with ongoing showers and thunderstorms. Though modest midlevel lapse rates will reside over the region, surface-based destabilization is not expected and at least a weak low-level inversion is depicted in most forecast soundings. Nevertheless, minor elevated instability will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity. Some gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms given strong flow not far above the near-surface layer, but overall severe potential appears low given poor low-level thermodynamics. Across the western U.S., a persistent, broad upper trough will continue to impact the Pacific Northwest vicinity. Strong deep-layers westerly flow will maintain a deep moist layer. Cold temperature aloft will also result in steep lapse rates and sufficient instability to support isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent along the WA/OR coast and into northern CA. ..Leitman.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will migrate from the Lower MS Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Friday. Only very weak surface low development may occur near or just offshore the central Gulf Coast in response to the upper wave. Most forecast guidance keeps any deeper boundary-layer moisture offshore. Cloud cover will inhibit much warming during the day, along with ongoing showers and thunderstorms. Though modest midlevel lapse rates will reside over the region, surface-based destabilization is not expected and at least a weak low-level inversion is depicted in most forecast soundings. Nevertheless, minor elevated instability will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity. Some gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms given strong flow not far above the near-surface layer, but overall severe potential appears low given poor low-level thermodynamics. Across the western U.S., a persistent, broad upper trough will continue to impact the Pacific Northwest vicinity. Strong deep-layers westerly flow will maintain a deep moist layer. Cold temperature aloft will also result in steep lapse rates and sufficient instability to support isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent along the WA/OR coast and into northern CA. ..Leitman.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A weak upper shortwave trough will migrate from the Lower MS Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Friday. Only very weak surface low development may occur near or just offshore the central Gulf Coast in response to the upper wave. Most forecast guidance keeps any deeper boundary-layer moisture offshore. Cloud cover will inhibit much warming during the day, along with ongoing showers and thunderstorms. Though modest midlevel lapse rates will reside over the region, surface-based destabilization is not expected and at least a weak low-level inversion is depicted in most forecast soundings. Nevertheless, minor elevated instability will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity. Some gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms given strong flow not far above the near-surface layer, but overall severe potential appears low given poor low-level thermodynamics. Across the western U.S., a persistent, broad upper trough will continue to impact the Pacific Northwest vicinity. Strong deep-layers westerly flow will maintain a deep moist layer. Cold temperature aloft will also result in steep lapse rates and sufficient instability to support isolated thunderstorms in orographic ascent along the WA/OR coast and into northern CA. ..Leitman.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large negative-tilt upper trough will quickly move across the Northeast today, with upper riding over the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains during the day, likely losing amplitude as it moves across the lower MS Valley overnight. To the west, substantial cooling aloft will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a strong midlevel jet noses into northern CA. In advance of the southern Plains trough, a cool air mass will exist at the surface due to a strong surface high over land, and poor trajectories over the Gulf of Mexico initially. Low-level winds will veer to southerly overnight however, and robust moisture will return northward across the Gulf of Mexico. Through 12Z Friday, it appears only elevated instability will be present over land, with scattered showers and thunderstorms most likely tonight from eastern TX into LA. Poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude any severe hail threat. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large negative-tilt upper trough will quickly move across the Northeast today, with upper riding over the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains during the day, likely losing amplitude as it moves across the lower MS Valley overnight. To the west, substantial cooling aloft will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a strong midlevel jet noses into northern CA. In advance of the southern Plains trough, a cool air mass will exist at the surface due to a strong surface high over land, and poor trajectories over the Gulf of Mexico initially. Low-level winds will veer to southerly overnight however, and robust moisture will return northward across the Gulf of Mexico. Through 12Z Friday, it appears only elevated instability will be present over land, with scattered showers and thunderstorms most likely tonight from eastern TX into LA. Poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude any severe hail threat. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large negative-tilt upper trough will quickly move across the Northeast today, with upper riding over the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains during the day, likely losing amplitude as it moves across the lower MS Valley overnight. To the west, substantial cooling aloft will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a strong midlevel jet noses into northern CA. In advance of the southern Plains trough, a cool air mass will exist at the surface due to a strong surface high over land, and poor trajectories over the Gulf of Mexico initially. Low-level winds will veer to southerly overnight however, and robust moisture will return northward across the Gulf of Mexico. Through 12Z Friday, it appears only elevated instability will be present over land, with scattered showers and thunderstorms most likely tonight from eastern TX into LA. Poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude any severe hail threat. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large negative-tilt upper trough will quickly move across the Northeast today, with upper riding over the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains during the day, likely losing amplitude as it moves across the lower MS Valley overnight. To the west, substantial cooling aloft will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a strong midlevel jet noses into northern CA. In advance of the southern Plains trough, a cool air mass will exist at the surface due to a strong surface high over land, and poor trajectories over the Gulf of Mexico initially. Low-level winds will veer to southerly overnight however, and robust moisture will return northward across the Gulf of Mexico. Through 12Z Friday, it appears only elevated instability will be present over land, with scattered showers and thunderstorms most likely tonight from eastern TX into LA. Poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude any severe hail threat. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large negative-tilt upper trough will quickly move across the Northeast today, with upper riding over the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains during the day, likely losing amplitude as it moves across the lower MS Valley overnight. To the west, substantial cooling aloft will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a strong midlevel jet noses into northern CA. In advance of the southern Plains trough, a cool air mass will exist at the surface due to a strong surface high over land, and poor trajectories over the Gulf of Mexico initially. Low-level winds will veer to southerly overnight however, and robust moisture will return northward across the Gulf of Mexico. Through 12Z Friday, it appears only elevated instability will be present over land, with scattered showers and thunderstorms most likely tonight from eastern TX into LA. Poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude any severe hail threat. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large negative-tilt upper trough will quickly move across the Northeast today, with upper riding over the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the southern Plains during the day, likely losing amplitude as it moves across the lower MS Valley overnight. To the west, substantial cooling aloft will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a strong midlevel jet noses into northern CA. In advance of the southern Plains trough, a cool air mass will exist at the surface due to a strong surface high over land, and poor trajectories over the Gulf of Mexico initially. Low-level winds will veer to southerly overnight however, and robust moisture will return northward across the Gulf of Mexico. Through 12Z Friday, it appears only elevated instability will be present over land, with scattered showers and thunderstorms most likely tonight from eastern TX into LA. Poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude any severe hail threat. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat of severe wind gusts appears negligible through tonight. ...East Coast... A cold front will continue to move rapidly eastward into New England, and across the remainder of the eastern Carolinas this evening, beneath the deep and progressive upper trough. A line of shallow convection persists this evening along parts of the front, most notably from SC into southeast VA. 00Z soundings from the region indicate little or no instability, and very little lightning has been observed with this activity. Gusty winds may still occur with low-topped convection along the front over the next few hours before moving offshore, but the threat of 50 kt wind gusts has likely ended with the loss of heating. ..Jewell.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat of severe wind gusts appears negligible through tonight. ...East Coast... A cold front will continue to move rapidly eastward into New England, and across the remainder of the eastern Carolinas this evening, beneath the deep and progressive upper trough. A line of shallow convection persists this evening along parts of the front, most notably from SC into southeast VA. 00Z soundings from the region indicate little or no instability, and very little lightning has been observed with this activity. Gusty winds may still occur with low-topped convection along the front over the next few hours before moving offshore, but the threat of 50 kt wind gusts has likely ended with the loss of heating. ..Jewell.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat of severe wind gusts appears negligible through tonight. ...East Coast... A cold front will continue to move rapidly eastward into New England, and across the remainder of the eastern Carolinas this evening, beneath the deep and progressive upper trough. A line of shallow convection persists this evening along parts of the front, most notably from SC into southeast VA. 00Z soundings from the region indicate little or no instability, and very little lightning has been observed with this activity. Gusty winds may still occur with low-topped convection along the front over the next few hours before moving offshore, but the threat of 50 kt wind gusts has likely ended with the loss of heating. ..Jewell.. 02/29/2024 Read more