Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent Plains on D2/Sunday, with the primary embedded speed maximum expected to cross the CO Rockies during the afternoon. This will yield lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO/western KS, with an associated tight surface pressure gradient developing across much of the central and southern High Plains. Similar to D1/Saturday, this pattern will favor an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions over receptive fuels -- with elevated to critical fire-weather conditions expected. ...Central and Southern High Plains... In response to the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, an expansive area of 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected across much of the central and southern High Plains. Here, continued downslope warming/drying and deep mixing will contribute to 10-15 percent minimum RH. Slightly cooler temperatures and higher RH are expected along the I-25 corridor, though gusts upwards of 60 mph and receptive fuels should compensate for this. While guidance suggests a slight minimum in the strong sustained surface winds over parts of the TX South Plains, low RH and breezy/gusty surface winds should still favor near-critical to critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will move eastward across the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft impinging on the Rockies during the afternoon hours. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen as it tracks slowly eastward across the northern Plains, while a deepening lee trough and tightening surface pressure gradient develop southward across much of the central and southern Plains. This large-scale pattern will result in an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions across the central/southern High Plains, leading to a large area of elevated to high-end critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The strong deep-layer west-southwesterlies will support robust downslope warming/drying across the central and southern High Plains, where upper 60s to lower/middle 70s temperatures and 5-10 percent minimum RH is expected during the afternoon. At the same time, the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor an expansive area of 25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Over the I-25 corridor, gusts could reach 50-60 mph, though RH will be slightly higher compared to areas farther east over the Plains. Given mostly receptive fuels across the central and southern High Plains, high-end critical fire-weather conditions are expected -- with the most volatile fire-weather conditions expected over portions of southern CO, northeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. ..Weinman.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will move eastward across the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft impinging on the Rockies during the afternoon hours. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen as it tracks slowly eastward across the northern Plains, while a deepening lee trough and tightening surface pressure gradient develop southward across much of the central and southern Plains. This large-scale pattern will result in an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions across the central/southern High Plains, leading to a large area of elevated to high-end critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The strong deep-layer west-southwesterlies will support robust downslope warming/drying across the central and southern High Plains, where upper 60s to lower/middle 70s temperatures and 5-10 percent minimum RH is expected during the afternoon. At the same time, the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor an expansive area of 25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Over the I-25 corridor, gusts could reach 50-60 mph, though RH will be slightly higher compared to areas farther east over the Plains. Given mostly receptive fuels across the central and southern High Plains, high-end critical fire-weather conditions are expected -- with the most volatile fire-weather conditions expected over portions of southern CO, northeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. ..Weinman.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will move eastward across the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft impinging on the Rockies during the afternoon hours. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen as it tracks slowly eastward across the northern Plains, while a deepening lee trough and tightening surface pressure gradient develop southward across much of the central and southern Plains. This large-scale pattern will result in an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions across the central/southern High Plains, leading to a large area of elevated to high-end critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The strong deep-layer west-southwesterlies will support robust downslope warming/drying across the central and southern High Plains, where upper 60s to lower/middle 70s temperatures and 5-10 percent minimum RH is expected during the afternoon. At the same time, the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor an expansive area of 25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Over the I-25 corridor, gusts could reach 50-60 mph, though RH will be slightly higher compared to areas farther east over the Plains. Given mostly receptive fuels across the central and southern High Plains, high-end critical fire-weather conditions are expected -- with the most volatile fire-weather conditions expected over portions of southern CO, northeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. ..Weinman.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will move eastward across the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft impinging on the Rockies during the afternoon hours. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen as it tracks slowly eastward across the northern Plains, while a deepening lee trough and tightening surface pressure gradient develop southward across much of the central and southern Plains. This large-scale pattern will result in an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions across the central/southern High Plains, leading to a large area of elevated to high-end critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The strong deep-layer west-southwesterlies will support robust downslope warming/drying across the central and southern High Plains, where upper 60s to lower/middle 70s temperatures and 5-10 percent minimum RH is expected during the afternoon. At the same time, the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor an expansive area of 25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Over the I-25 corridor, gusts could reach 50-60 mph, though RH will be slightly higher compared to areas farther east over the Plains. Given mostly receptive fuels across the central and southern High Plains, high-end critical fire-weather conditions are expected -- with the most volatile fire-weather conditions expected over portions of southern CO, northeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. ..Weinman.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will move eastward across the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft impinging on the Rockies during the afternoon hours. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen as it tracks slowly eastward across the northern Plains, while a deepening lee trough and tightening surface pressure gradient develop southward across much of the central and southern Plains. This large-scale pattern will result in an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions across the central/southern High Plains, leading to a large area of elevated to high-end critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The strong deep-layer west-southwesterlies will support robust downslope warming/drying across the central and southern High Plains, where upper 60s to lower/middle 70s temperatures and 5-10 percent minimum RH is expected during the afternoon. At the same time, the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor an expansive area of 25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Over the I-25 corridor, gusts could reach 50-60 mph, though RH will be slightly higher compared to areas farther east over the Plains. Given mostly receptive fuels across the central and southern High Plains, high-end critical fire-weather conditions are expected -- with the most volatile fire-weather conditions expected over portions of southern CO, northeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. ..Weinman.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will move eastward across the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft impinging on the Rockies during the afternoon hours. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen as it tracks slowly eastward across the northern Plains, while a deepening lee trough and tightening surface pressure gradient develop southward across much of the central and southern Plains. This large-scale pattern will result in an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions across the central/southern High Plains, leading to a large area of elevated to high-end critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The strong deep-layer west-southwesterlies will support robust downslope warming/drying across the central and southern High Plains, where upper 60s to lower/middle 70s temperatures and 5-10 percent minimum RH is expected during the afternoon. At the same time, the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor an expansive area of 25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Over the I-25 corridor, gusts could reach 50-60 mph, though RH will be slightly higher compared to areas farther east over the Plains. Given mostly receptive fuels across the central and southern High Plains, high-end critical fire-weather conditions are expected -- with the most volatile fire-weather conditions expected over portions of southern CO, northeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. ..Weinman.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will move eastward across the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft impinging on the Rockies during the afternoon hours. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen as it tracks slowly eastward across the northern Plains, while a deepening lee trough and tightening surface pressure gradient develop southward across much of the central and southern Plains. This large-scale pattern will result in an expansive area of warm, dry, and windy conditions across the central/southern High Plains, leading to a large area of elevated to high-end critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central and Southern High Plains... The strong deep-layer west-southwesterlies will support robust downslope warming/drying across the central and southern High Plains, where upper 60s to lower/middle 70s temperatures and 5-10 percent minimum RH is expected during the afternoon. At the same time, the tightening surface pressure gradient and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor an expansive area of 25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Over the I-25 corridor, gusts could reach 50-60 mph, though RH will be slightly higher compared to areas farther east over the Plains. Given mostly receptive fuels across the central and southern High Plains, high-end critical fire-weather conditions are expected -- with the most volatile fire-weather conditions expected over portions of southern CO, northeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. ..Weinman.. 03/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will lift northeastward through parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday into early Monday morning. Broad troughing will remain in the West with a southern stream perturbation approaching central/southeast Texas late in the period. At the surface, a deep surface low will also quickly lift northward through the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. A secondary surface low will form in eastern Colorado during the afternoon and shift into Kansas/Oklahoma during the evening. Very cold temperatures (less than -30 C) aloft in the Pacific Northwest/northern California will support thunderstorm activity primarily along/near the coast. Some activity could extend into the Willamette Valley. Despite cool temperatures/cloud cover, very little heating would be required to support deep enough updrafts for isolated lightning flashes. Late in the period, low-level warm advection in portions of the mid-Missouri Valley region may support the development of elevated buoyancy. Isolated thunderstorms would be possible should sufficient destabilization occur. In the Southeast, a weak upper-level trough should allow for thunderstorm activity along/near a stationary surface boundary as well as along the sea breeze in the Florida Peninsula. A subtle shortwave trough approaching parts of central/southeast Texas coupled with low-level theta-e advection will encourage some destabilization during the evening. Given a pronounced layer of warm air aloft, it appears that thunderstorms will most likely not develop until later in the day on Monday. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will lift northeastward through parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday into early Monday morning. Broad troughing will remain in the West with a southern stream perturbation approaching central/southeast Texas late in the period. At the surface, a deep surface low will also quickly lift northward through the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. A secondary surface low will form in eastern Colorado during the afternoon and shift into Kansas/Oklahoma during the evening. Very cold temperatures (less than -30 C) aloft in the Pacific Northwest/northern California will support thunderstorm activity primarily along/near the coast. Some activity could extend into the Willamette Valley. Despite cool temperatures/cloud cover, very little heating would be required to support deep enough updrafts for isolated lightning flashes. Late in the period, low-level warm advection in portions of the mid-Missouri Valley region may support the development of elevated buoyancy. Isolated thunderstorms would be possible should sufficient destabilization occur. In the Southeast, a weak upper-level trough should allow for thunderstorm activity along/near a stationary surface boundary as well as along the sea breeze in the Florida Peninsula. A subtle shortwave trough approaching parts of central/southeast Texas coupled with low-level theta-e advection will encourage some destabilization during the evening. Given a pronounced layer of warm air aloft, it appears that thunderstorms will most likely not develop until later in the day on Monday. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will lift northeastward through parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday into early Monday morning. Broad troughing will remain in the West with a southern stream perturbation approaching central/southeast Texas late in the period. At the surface, a deep surface low will also quickly lift northward through the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. A secondary surface low will form in eastern Colorado during the afternoon and shift into Kansas/Oklahoma during the evening. Very cold temperatures (less than -30 C) aloft in the Pacific Northwest/northern California will support thunderstorm activity primarily along/near the coast. Some activity could extend into the Willamette Valley. Despite cool temperatures/cloud cover, very little heating would be required to support deep enough updrafts for isolated lightning flashes. Late in the period, low-level warm advection in portions of the mid-Missouri Valley region may support the development of elevated buoyancy. Isolated thunderstorms would be possible should sufficient destabilization occur. In the Southeast, a weak upper-level trough should allow for thunderstorm activity along/near a stationary surface boundary as well as along the sea breeze in the Florida Peninsula. A subtle shortwave trough approaching parts of central/southeast Texas coupled with low-level theta-e advection will encourage some destabilization during the evening. Given a pronounced layer of warm air aloft, it appears that thunderstorms will most likely not develop until later in the day on Monday. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will lift northeastward through parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday into early Monday morning. Broad troughing will remain in the West with a southern stream perturbation approaching central/southeast Texas late in the period. At the surface, a deep surface low will also quickly lift northward through the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. A secondary surface low will form in eastern Colorado during the afternoon and shift into Kansas/Oklahoma during the evening. Very cold temperatures (less than -30 C) aloft in the Pacific Northwest/northern California will support thunderstorm activity primarily along/near the coast. Some activity could extend into the Willamette Valley. Despite cool temperatures/cloud cover, very little heating would be required to support deep enough updrafts for isolated lightning flashes. Late in the period, low-level warm advection in portions of the mid-Missouri Valley region may support the development of elevated buoyancy. Isolated thunderstorms would be possible should sufficient destabilization occur. In the Southeast, a weak upper-level trough should allow for thunderstorm activity along/near a stationary surface boundary as well as along the sea breeze in the Florida Peninsula. A subtle shortwave trough approaching parts of central/southeast Texas coupled with low-level theta-e advection will encourage some destabilization during the evening. Given a pronounced layer of warm air aloft, it appears that thunderstorms will most likely not develop until later in the day on Monday. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will lift northeastward through parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday into early Monday morning. Broad troughing will remain in the West with a southern stream perturbation approaching central/southeast Texas late in the period. At the surface, a deep surface low will also quickly lift northward through the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. A secondary surface low will form in eastern Colorado during the afternoon and shift into Kansas/Oklahoma during the evening. Very cold temperatures (less than -30 C) aloft in the Pacific Northwest/northern California will support thunderstorm activity primarily along/near the coast. Some activity could extend into the Willamette Valley. Despite cool temperatures/cloud cover, very little heating would be required to support deep enough updrafts for isolated lightning flashes. Late in the period, low-level warm advection in portions of the mid-Missouri Valley region may support the development of elevated buoyancy. Isolated thunderstorms would be possible should sufficient destabilization occur. In the Southeast, a weak upper-level trough should allow for thunderstorm activity along/near a stationary surface boundary as well as along the sea breeze in the Florida Peninsula. A subtle shortwave trough approaching parts of central/southeast Texas coupled with low-level theta-e advection will encourage some destabilization during the evening. Given a pronounced layer of warm air aloft, it appears that thunderstorms will most likely not develop until later in the day on Monday. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough will lift northeastward through parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes on Sunday into early Monday morning. Broad troughing will remain in the West with a southern stream perturbation approaching central/southeast Texas late in the period. At the surface, a deep surface low will also quickly lift northward through the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. A secondary surface low will form in eastern Colorado during the afternoon and shift into Kansas/Oklahoma during the evening. Very cold temperatures (less than -30 C) aloft in the Pacific Northwest/northern California will support thunderstorm activity primarily along/near the coast. Some activity could extend into the Willamette Valley. Despite cool temperatures/cloud cover, very little heating would be required to support deep enough updrafts for isolated lightning flashes. Late in the period, low-level warm advection in portions of the mid-Missouri Valley region may support the development of elevated buoyancy. Isolated thunderstorms would be possible should sufficient destabilization occur. In the Southeast, a weak upper-level trough should allow for thunderstorm activity along/near a stationary surface boundary as well as along the sea breeze in the Florida Peninsula. A subtle shortwave trough approaching parts of central/southeast Texas coupled with low-level theta-e advection will encourage some destabilization during the evening. Given a pronounced layer of warm air aloft, it appears that thunderstorms will most likely not develop until later in the day on Monday. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Northern FL Peninsula and vicinity... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move through broad cyclonic flow and approach the FL Peninsula during the afternoon. Ascent attendant to this feature will aid diurnal thunderstorm development from far south GA into the northern FL Peninsula, along/south of a weak surface boundary. Generally weak instability and only modest deep-layer shear should tend to limit the severe risk, but a strong storm or two capable of small hail and gusty winds will be possible, especially in areas where greater pre-convective warming can occur through the day. ...Parts of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A deep mid/upper-level trough will continue moving eastward across the western CONUS through the day. A surface low initially over eastern WA is forecast to move eastward toward the northern High Plains by evening. A strong cold front attendant to this low will move across the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the afternoon. Steep lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft (-25C to -30C at 500 mb), and favorable ascent will support development of one or more bands of low-topped convection along the front as it moves eastward. This frontal convection will pose a threat of at least sporadic lightning flashes from parts of NV into UT/WY and southeast ID, accompanied by strong wind gusts and potential snow-squall conditions. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Northern FL Peninsula and vicinity... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move through broad cyclonic flow and approach the FL Peninsula during the afternoon. Ascent attendant to this feature will aid diurnal thunderstorm development from far south GA into the northern FL Peninsula, along/south of a weak surface boundary. Generally weak instability and only modest deep-layer shear should tend to limit the severe risk, but a strong storm or two capable of small hail and gusty winds will be possible, especially in areas where greater pre-convective warming can occur through the day. ...Parts of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A deep mid/upper-level trough will continue moving eastward across the western CONUS through the day. A surface low initially over eastern WA is forecast to move eastward toward the northern High Plains by evening. A strong cold front attendant to this low will move across the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the afternoon. Steep lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft (-25C to -30C at 500 mb), and favorable ascent will support development of one or more bands of low-topped convection along the front as it moves eastward. This frontal convection will pose a threat of at least sporadic lightning flashes from parts of NV into UT/WY and southeast ID, accompanied by strong wind gusts and potential snow-squall conditions. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Northern FL Peninsula and vicinity... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move through broad cyclonic flow and approach the FL Peninsula during the afternoon. Ascent attendant to this feature will aid diurnal thunderstorm development from far south GA into the northern FL Peninsula, along/south of a weak surface boundary. Generally weak instability and only modest deep-layer shear should tend to limit the severe risk, but a strong storm or two capable of small hail and gusty winds will be possible, especially in areas where greater pre-convective warming can occur through the day. ...Parts of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A deep mid/upper-level trough will continue moving eastward across the western CONUS through the day. A surface low initially over eastern WA is forecast to move eastward toward the northern High Plains by evening. A strong cold front attendant to this low will move across the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the afternoon. Steep lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft (-25C to -30C at 500 mb), and favorable ascent will support development of one or more bands of low-topped convection along the front as it moves eastward. This frontal convection will pose a threat of at least sporadic lightning flashes from parts of NV into UT/WY and southeast ID, accompanied by strong wind gusts and potential snow-squall conditions. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Northern FL Peninsula and vicinity... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move through broad cyclonic flow and approach the FL Peninsula during the afternoon. Ascent attendant to this feature will aid diurnal thunderstorm development from far south GA into the northern FL Peninsula, along/south of a weak surface boundary. Generally weak instability and only modest deep-layer shear should tend to limit the severe risk, but a strong storm or two capable of small hail and gusty winds will be possible, especially in areas where greater pre-convective warming can occur through the day. ...Parts of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A deep mid/upper-level trough will continue moving eastward across the western CONUS through the day. A surface low initially over eastern WA is forecast to move eastward toward the northern High Plains by evening. A strong cold front attendant to this low will move across the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the afternoon. Steep lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft (-25C to -30C at 500 mb), and favorable ascent will support development of one or more bands of low-topped convection along the front as it moves eastward. This frontal convection will pose a threat of at least sporadic lightning flashes from parts of NV into UT/WY and southeast ID, accompanied by strong wind gusts and potential snow-squall conditions. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Northern FL Peninsula and vicinity... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move through broad cyclonic flow and approach the FL Peninsula during the afternoon. Ascent attendant to this feature will aid diurnal thunderstorm development from far south GA into the northern FL Peninsula, along/south of a weak surface boundary. Generally weak instability and only modest deep-layer shear should tend to limit the severe risk, but a strong storm or two capable of small hail and gusty winds will be possible, especially in areas where greater pre-convective warming can occur through the day. ...Parts of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A deep mid/upper-level trough will continue moving eastward across the western CONUS through the day. A surface low initially over eastern WA is forecast to move eastward toward the northern High Plains by evening. A strong cold front attendant to this low will move across the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the afternoon. Steep lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft (-25C to -30C at 500 mb), and favorable ascent will support development of one or more bands of low-topped convection along the front as it moves eastward. This frontal convection will pose a threat of at least sporadic lightning flashes from parts of NV into UT/WY and southeast ID, accompanied by strong wind gusts and potential snow-squall conditions. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Northern FL Peninsula and vicinity... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move through broad cyclonic flow and approach the FL Peninsula during the afternoon. Ascent attendant to this feature will aid diurnal thunderstorm development from far south GA into the northern FL Peninsula, along/south of a weak surface boundary. Generally weak instability and only modest deep-layer shear should tend to limit the severe risk, but a strong storm or two capable of small hail and gusty winds will be possible, especially in areas where greater pre-convective warming can occur through the day. ...Parts of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A deep mid/upper-level trough will continue moving eastward across the western CONUS through the day. A surface low initially over eastern WA is forecast to move eastward toward the northern High Plains by evening. A strong cold front attendant to this low will move across the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the afternoon. Steep lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft (-25C to -30C at 500 mb), and favorable ascent will support development of one or more bands of low-topped convection along the front as it moves eastward. This frontal convection will pose a threat of at least sporadic lightning flashes from parts of NV into UT/WY and southeast ID, accompanied by strong wind gusts and potential snow-squall conditions. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/02/2024 Read more