Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Northwest States... Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight in vicinity of the Pacific Northwest coast, and along a cold front moving across ID. Activity is expected to be low-topped and weak. ...ArkLaTex Region... A southern-stream shortwave trough over NM will continue tracking eastward, enhancing low-level warm advection across areas from TX/OK eastward into the lower MS valley. Forecast soundings suggest weak but sufficient CAPE for isolated thunderstorms across the region through tonight. Some small hail is possible over east TX and southern LA late tonight, but no severe storms are currently anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough -- extending from James Bay to southern New England this morning -- will continue to pivot northeastward across New England through the day, and into the Canadian Maritimes overnight. Meanwhile, a second upper short-wave trough, embedded within cyclonic flow around a Gulf of Alaska cyclone, will shift inland/across the Pacific Northwest. In between the two troughs, weak ridging will prevail, though a smaller-scale southern-stream trough will continue undercutting the northern-stream ridge, crossing the south-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, high pressure will prevail over the eastern half of the country in the wake of the prior cold-frontal passage. Meanwhile, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Northwest in conjunction with the aforementioned upper troughing. Other features of note will be a lee trough over the high Plains, and a warm front over the north-central states that will gradually lift northward across the international border. Thunderstorms will be possible along the West Coast today and tonight, primarily in orographically favored areas of the Coast Ranges of the Pacific Northwest, and secondarily across portions of Idaho in the vicinity of the advancing cold front. Weak instability is anticipated, with shallow/low-topped convection the result. Meanwhile, elevated thunderstorms based above 850mb are ongoing across portions of western Texas and the Transpecos region, ahead of the southern-stream vort max described earlier. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will spread eastward across the southern Plains in advance of this feature, reaching as far east as Mississippi/Louisiana late in the period. While small hail will be possible overnight from East Texas eastward, as more substantial elevated CAPE evolves, severe risk appears likely to remain minimal at best. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough -- extending from James Bay to southern New England this morning -- will continue to pivot northeastward across New England through the day, and into the Canadian Maritimes overnight. Meanwhile, a second upper short-wave trough, embedded within cyclonic flow around a Gulf of Alaska cyclone, will shift inland/across the Pacific Northwest. In between the two troughs, weak ridging will prevail, though a smaller-scale southern-stream trough will continue undercutting the northern-stream ridge, crossing the south-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, high pressure will prevail over the eastern half of the country in the wake of the prior cold-frontal passage. Meanwhile, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Northwest in conjunction with the aforementioned upper troughing. Other features of note will be a lee trough over the high Plains, and a warm front over the north-central states that will gradually lift northward across the international border. Thunderstorms will be possible along the West Coast today and tonight, primarily in orographically favored areas of the Coast Ranges of the Pacific Northwest, and secondarily across portions of Idaho in the vicinity of the advancing cold front. Weak instability is anticipated, with shallow/low-topped convection the result. Meanwhile, elevated thunderstorms based above 850mb are ongoing across portions of western Texas and the Transpecos region, ahead of the southern-stream vort max described earlier. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will spread eastward across the southern Plains in advance of this feature, reaching as far east as Mississippi/Louisiana late in the period. While small hail will be possible overnight from East Texas eastward, as more substantial elevated CAPE evolves, severe risk appears likely to remain minimal at best. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough -- extending from James Bay to southern New England this morning -- will continue to pivot northeastward across New England through the day, and into the Canadian Maritimes overnight. Meanwhile, a second upper short-wave trough, embedded within cyclonic flow around a Gulf of Alaska cyclone, will shift inland/across the Pacific Northwest. In between the two troughs, weak ridging will prevail, though a smaller-scale southern-stream trough will continue undercutting the northern-stream ridge, crossing the south-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, high pressure will prevail over the eastern half of the country in the wake of the prior cold-frontal passage. Meanwhile, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Northwest in conjunction with the aforementioned upper troughing. Other features of note will be a lee trough over the high Plains, and a warm front over the north-central states that will gradually lift northward across the international border. Thunderstorms will be possible along the West Coast today and tonight, primarily in orographically favored areas of the Coast Ranges of the Pacific Northwest, and secondarily across portions of Idaho in the vicinity of the advancing cold front. Weak instability is anticipated, with shallow/low-topped convection the result. Meanwhile, elevated thunderstorms based above 850mb are ongoing across portions of western Texas and the Transpecos region, ahead of the southern-stream vort max described earlier. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will spread eastward across the southern Plains in advance of this feature, reaching as far east as Mississippi/Louisiana late in the period. While small hail will be possible overnight from East Texas eastward, as more substantial elevated CAPE evolves, severe risk appears likely to remain minimal at best. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough -- extending from James Bay to southern New England this morning -- will continue to pivot northeastward across New England through the day, and into the Canadian Maritimes overnight. Meanwhile, a second upper short-wave trough, embedded within cyclonic flow around a Gulf of Alaska cyclone, will shift inland/across the Pacific Northwest. In between the two troughs, weak ridging will prevail, though a smaller-scale southern-stream trough will continue undercutting the northern-stream ridge, crossing the south-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, high pressure will prevail over the eastern half of the country in the wake of the prior cold-frontal passage. Meanwhile, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Northwest in conjunction with the aforementioned upper troughing. Other features of note will be a lee trough over the high Plains, and a warm front over the north-central states that will gradually lift northward across the international border. Thunderstorms will be possible along the West Coast today and tonight, primarily in orographically favored areas of the Coast Ranges of the Pacific Northwest, and secondarily across portions of Idaho in the vicinity of the advancing cold front. Weak instability is anticipated, with shallow/low-topped convection the result. Meanwhile, elevated thunderstorms based above 850mb are ongoing across portions of western Texas and the Transpecos region, ahead of the southern-stream vort max described earlier. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will spread eastward across the southern Plains in advance of this feature, reaching as far east as Mississippi/Louisiana late in the period. While small hail will be possible overnight from East Texas eastward, as more substantial elevated CAPE evolves, severe risk appears likely to remain minimal at best. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough -- extending from James Bay to southern New England this morning -- will continue to pivot northeastward across New England through the day, and into the Canadian Maritimes overnight. Meanwhile, a second upper short-wave trough, embedded within cyclonic flow around a Gulf of Alaska cyclone, will shift inland/across the Pacific Northwest. In between the two troughs, weak ridging will prevail, though a smaller-scale southern-stream trough will continue undercutting the northern-stream ridge, crossing the south-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, high pressure will prevail over the eastern half of the country in the wake of the prior cold-frontal passage. Meanwhile, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Northwest in conjunction with the aforementioned upper troughing. Other features of note will be a lee trough over the high Plains, and a warm front over the north-central states that will gradually lift northward across the international border. Thunderstorms will be possible along the West Coast today and tonight, primarily in orographically favored areas of the Coast Ranges of the Pacific Northwest, and secondarily across portions of Idaho in the vicinity of the advancing cold front. Weak instability is anticipated, with shallow/low-topped convection the result. Meanwhile, elevated thunderstorms based above 850mb are ongoing across portions of western Texas and the Transpecos region, ahead of the southern-stream vort max described earlier. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will spread eastward across the southern Plains in advance of this feature, reaching as far east as Mississippi/Louisiana late in the period. While small hail will be possible overnight from East Texas eastward, as more substantial elevated CAPE evolves, severe risk appears likely to remain minimal at best. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/29/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the western U.S. early on Day 4/Sun will lift northeast toward the Upper Midwest by early Day 5/Mon. A deep surface low over the norther Plains will lift northeast at the same time. Meanwhile a cold front attendant to the low will push east across the Mid-MO and Upper MS Valley. Southerly low-level flow will allow for Gulf moisture to return northward ahead of the front. However, 60s F surface dewpoints (and better thermodynamics) will remain well south of better large-scale ascent and vertical shear associated with the trough and cold front, limiting severe potential. On Day 5/Mon, the upper trough will continue to shift east/northeast across the north-central U.S. Meanwhile, a shortwave impulse embedded within westerly southern stream flow will move across northern Mexico and south TX and the western Gulf vicinity. This will result in increasing west/southwesterly flow aloft as deeper Gulf moisture spreads across south and east TX into the Lower MS Valley during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. However, poor lapse rates are forecast and large-scale ascent will remain modest. Additionally, flow through around 700 mb will remain somewhat weak, leading to marginal vertical shear. While some strong or severe thunderstorms could develop across the warm sector ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front during the afternoon/evening from east TX into the Lower MS Valley, potential appears to low to introduce 15 percent probabilities at this time. Model spread increases during the Days 6-8/Tue-Thu time frame. However, it appears a stronger southern stream jet may develop and move toward south-central portions of the U.S., though predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the western U.S. early on Day 4/Sun will lift northeast toward the Upper Midwest by early Day 5/Mon. A deep surface low over the norther Plains will lift northeast at the same time. Meanwhile a cold front attendant to the low will push east across the Mid-MO and Upper MS Valley. Southerly low-level flow will allow for Gulf moisture to return northward ahead of the front. However, 60s F surface dewpoints (and better thermodynamics) will remain well south of better large-scale ascent and vertical shear associated with the trough and cold front, limiting severe potential. On Day 5/Mon, the upper trough will continue to shift east/northeast across the north-central U.S. Meanwhile, a shortwave impulse embedded within westerly southern stream flow will move across northern Mexico and south TX and the western Gulf vicinity. This will result in increasing west/southwesterly flow aloft as deeper Gulf moisture spreads across south and east TX into the Lower MS Valley during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. However, poor lapse rates are forecast and large-scale ascent will remain modest. Additionally, flow through around 700 mb will remain somewhat weak, leading to marginal vertical shear. While some strong or severe thunderstorms could develop across the warm sector ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front during the afternoon/evening from east TX into the Lower MS Valley, potential appears to low to introduce 15 percent probabilities at this time. Model spread increases during the Days 6-8/Tue-Thu time frame. However, it appears a stronger southern stream jet may develop and move toward south-central portions of the U.S., though predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the western U.S. early on Day 4/Sun will lift northeast toward the Upper Midwest by early Day 5/Mon. A deep surface low over the norther Plains will lift northeast at the same time. Meanwhile a cold front attendant to the low will push east across the Mid-MO and Upper MS Valley. Southerly low-level flow will allow for Gulf moisture to return northward ahead of the front. However, 60s F surface dewpoints (and better thermodynamics) will remain well south of better large-scale ascent and vertical shear associated with the trough and cold front, limiting severe potential. On Day 5/Mon, the upper trough will continue to shift east/northeast across the north-central U.S. Meanwhile, a shortwave impulse embedded within westerly southern stream flow will move across northern Mexico and south TX and the western Gulf vicinity. This will result in increasing west/southwesterly flow aloft as deeper Gulf moisture spreads across south and east TX into the Lower MS Valley during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. However, poor lapse rates are forecast and large-scale ascent will remain modest. Additionally, flow through around 700 mb will remain somewhat weak, leading to marginal vertical shear. While some strong or severe thunderstorms could develop across the warm sector ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front during the afternoon/evening from east TX into the Lower MS Valley, potential appears to low to introduce 15 percent probabilities at this time. Model spread increases during the Days 6-8/Tue-Thu time frame. However, it appears a stronger southern stream jet may develop and move toward south-central portions of the U.S., though predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the western U.S. early on Day 4/Sun will lift northeast toward the Upper Midwest by early Day 5/Mon. A deep surface low over the norther Plains will lift northeast at the same time. Meanwhile a cold front attendant to the low will push east across the Mid-MO and Upper MS Valley. Southerly low-level flow will allow for Gulf moisture to return northward ahead of the front. However, 60s F surface dewpoints (and better thermodynamics) will remain well south of better large-scale ascent and vertical shear associated with the trough and cold front, limiting severe potential. On Day 5/Mon, the upper trough will continue to shift east/northeast across the north-central U.S. Meanwhile, a shortwave impulse embedded within westerly southern stream flow will move across northern Mexico and south TX and the western Gulf vicinity. This will result in increasing west/southwesterly flow aloft as deeper Gulf moisture spreads across south and east TX into the Lower MS Valley during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. However, poor lapse rates are forecast and large-scale ascent will remain modest. Additionally, flow through around 700 mb will remain somewhat weak, leading to marginal vertical shear. While some strong or severe thunderstorms could develop across the warm sector ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front during the afternoon/evening from east TX into the Lower MS Valley, potential appears to low to introduce 15 percent probabilities at this time. Model spread increases during the Days 6-8/Tue-Thu time frame. However, it appears a stronger southern stream jet may develop and move toward south-central portions of the U.S., though predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the western U.S. early on Day 4/Sun will lift northeast toward the Upper Midwest by early Day 5/Mon. A deep surface low over the norther Plains will lift northeast at the same time. Meanwhile a cold front attendant to the low will push east across the Mid-MO and Upper MS Valley. Southerly low-level flow will allow for Gulf moisture to return northward ahead of the front. However, 60s F surface dewpoints (and better thermodynamics) will remain well south of better large-scale ascent and vertical shear associated with the trough and cold front, limiting severe potential. On Day 5/Mon, the upper trough will continue to shift east/northeast across the north-central U.S. Meanwhile, a shortwave impulse embedded within westerly southern stream flow will move across northern Mexico and south TX and the western Gulf vicinity. This will result in increasing west/southwesterly flow aloft as deeper Gulf moisture spreads across south and east TX into the Lower MS Valley during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. However, poor lapse rates are forecast and large-scale ascent will remain modest. Additionally, flow through around 700 mb will remain somewhat weak, leading to marginal vertical shear. While some strong or severe thunderstorms could develop across the warm sector ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front during the afternoon/evening from east TX into the Lower MS Valley, potential appears to low to introduce 15 percent probabilities at this time. Model spread increases during the Days 6-8/Tue-Thu time frame. However, it appears a stronger southern stream jet may develop and move toward south-central portions of the U.S., though predictability is low. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A weak upper low over the southern Plains will continue eastward Friday with strong flow aloft trailing behind it over the southern Rockies/High Plains. At the same time a second Pacific trough will begin to move onshore with strong southwest flow. In the wake of the upper low, surface winds across the West should begin to slowly increase in response to the stronger flow aloft. Periods of dry and breezy conditions are possible Friday across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ...Eastern NM and the TX Panhandle... As the upper low over the southern Plains departs, flow aloft will gradually turn westerly ahead of the advancing Pacific system. Winds aloft are forecast to gradually strengthen through the day, with 40-50 kt of flow over the southern Rockies likely by the afternoon. Aided by a deepening lee trough, 15-20 mph of westerly downslope flow is expected over parts of eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle. Despite some recent light precipitation, this area has remained largely devoid of meaningful rain/snow in the past several weeks. Warm temperatures and downslope drying should continue to support a very dry air mass with minimum RH values of 15-20% and poor overnight recoveries. Rapid fuel drying has occurred in the last few days with unusually warm temperatures and a recent uptick in fire activity. Widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible Friday afternoon cross parts of eastern NM and West TX. Localized fire-weather concerns may also increase farther north across parts of eastern CO, though confidence in sustained dry and windy conditions here is lower. ..Lyons.. 02/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A weak upper low over the southern Plains will continue eastward Friday with strong flow aloft trailing behind it over the southern Rockies/High Plains. At the same time a second Pacific trough will begin to move onshore with strong southwest flow. In the wake of the upper low, surface winds across the West should begin to slowly increase in response to the stronger flow aloft. Periods of dry and breezy conditions are possible Friday across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ...Eastern NM and the TX Panhandle... As the upper low over the southern Plains departs, flow aloft will gradually turn westerly ahead of the advancing Pacific system. Winds aloft are forecast to gradually strengthen through the day, with 40-50 kt of flow over the southern Rockies likely by the afternoon. Aided by a deepening lee trough, 15-20 mph of westerly downslope flow is expected over parts of eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle. Despite some recent light precipitation, this area has remained largely devoid of meaningful rain/snow in the past several weeks. Warm temperatures and downslope drying should continue to support a very dry air mass with minimum RH values of 15-20% and poor overnight recoveries. Rapid fuel drying has occurred in the last few days with unusually warm temperatures and a recent uptick in fire activity. Widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible Friday afternoon cross parts of eastern NM and West TX. Localized fire-weather concerns may also increase farther north across parts of eastern CO, though confidence in sustained dry and windy conditions here is lower. ..Lyons.. 02/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A weak upper low over the southern Plains will continue eastward Friday with strong flow aloft trailing behind it over the southern Rockies/High Plains. At the same time a second Pacific trough will begin to move onshore with strong southwest flow. In the wake of the upper low, surface winds across the West should begin to slowly increase in response to the stronger flow aloft. Periods of dry and breezy conditions are possible Friday across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ...Eastern NM and the TX Panhandle... As the upper low over the southern Plains departs, flow aloft will gradually turn westerly ahead of the advancing Pacific system. Winds aloft are forecast to gradually strengthen through the day, with 40-50 kt of flow over the southern Rockies likely by the afternoon. Aided by a deepening lee trough, 15-20 mph of westerly downslope flow is expected over parts of eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle. Despite some recent light precipitation, this area has remained largely devoid of meaningful rain/snow in the past several weeks. Warm temperatures and downslope drying should continue to support a very dry air mass with minimum RH values of 15-20% and poor overnight recoveries. Rapid fuel drying has occurred in the last few days with unusually warm temperatures and a recent uptick in fire activity. Widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible Friday afternoon cross parts of eastern NM and West TX. Localized fire-weather concerns may also increase farther north across parts of eastern CO, though confidence in sustained dry and windy conditions here is lower. ..Lyons.. 02/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A weak upper low over the southern Plains will continue eastward Friday with strong flow aloft trailing behind it over the southern Rockies/High Plains. At the same time a second Pacific trough will begin to move onshore with strong southwest flow. In the wake of the upper low, surface winds across the West should begin to slowly increase in response to the stronger flow aloft. Periods of dry and breezy conditions are possible Friday across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ...Eastern NM and the TX Panhandle... As the upper low over the southern Plains departs, flow aloft will gradually turn westerly ahead of the advancing Pacific system. Winds aloft are forecast to gradually strengthen through the day, with 40-50 kt of flow over the southern Rockies likely by the afternoon. Aided by a deepening lee trough, 15-20 mph of westerly downslope flow is expected over parts of eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle. Despite some recent light precipitation, this area has remained largely devoid of meaningful rain/snow in the past several weeks. Warm temperatures and downslope drying should continue to support a very dry air mass with minimum RH values of 15-20% and poor overnight recoveries. Rapid fuel drying has occurred in the last few days with unusually warm temperatures and a recent uptick in fire activity. Widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible Friday afternoon cross parts of eastern NM and West TX. Localized fire-weather concerns may also increase farther north across parts of eastern CO, though confidence in sustained dry and windy conditions here is lower. ..Lyons.. 02/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A weak upper low over the southern Plains will continue eastward Friday with strong flow aloft trailing behind it over the southern Rockies/High Plains. At the same time a second Pacific trough will begin to move onshore with strong southwest flow. In the wake of the upper low, surface winds across the West should begin to slowly increase in response to the stronger flow aloft. Periods of dry and breezy conditions are possible Friday across eastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ...Eastern NM and the TX Panhandle... As the upper low over the southern Plains departs, flow aloft will gradually turn westerly ahead of the advancing Pacific system. Winds aloft are forecast to gradually strengthen through the day, with 40-50 kt of flow over the southern Rockies likely by the afternoon. Aided by a deepening lee trough, 15-20 mph of westerly downslope flow is expected over parts of eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle. Despite some recent light precipitation, this area has remained largely devoid of meaningful rain/snow in the past several weeks. Warm temperatures and downslope drying should continue to support a very dry air mass with minimum RH values of 15-20% and poor overnight recoveries. Rapid fuel drying has occurred in the last few days with unusually warm temperatures and a recent uptick in fire activity. Widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear possible Friday afternoon cross parts of eastern NM and West TX. Localized fire-weather concerns may also increase farther north across parts of eastern CO, though confidence in sustained dry and windy conditions here is lower. ..Lyons.. 02/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing upper trough over the eastern US, a weak trough over the southern Plains should lift north into the central US. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern US will drive strong southerly return flow across parts of OK KS and NE this afternoon. Warm and dry surface conditions will also be present supporting potential for critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central Plains... With the approach of the weak upper low, surface pressure gradients are forecast to quickly tighten over the southern and central Plains. Surface winds will quickly increase to 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 30-35 mph through the day. Aided by clear skies and strong heating, afternoon RH values within the dry southerly flow should fall as low as 15-20%. While area fuel loading is not particularly dense, numerous days of preceding dry and windy conditions have resulted in critical dryness of short-hour fuels. Large vapor pressure deficits combined with the strong winds and clear skies should support additional drying through the day. Thus, widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of north-central/northeast KS into southeastern NE. ...Gulf Coast... Dry surface conditions are also possible across parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast in the wake of the departing cold front. While winds are not overly strong, lower humidity should overlap with areas of limited rainfall in recent weeks. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible before rain chances increase late tonight into Friday. ..Lyons.. 02/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing upper trough over the eastern US, a weak trough over the southern Plains should lift north into the central US. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern US will drive strong southerly return flow across parts of OK KS and NE this afternoon. Warm and dry surface conditions will also be present supporting potential for critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central Plains... With the approach of the weak upper low, surface pressure gradients are forecast to quickly tighten over the southern and central Plains. Surface winds will quickly increase to 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 30-35 mph through the day. Aided by clear skies and strong heating, afternoon RH values within the dry southerly flow should fall as low as 15-20%. While area fuel loading is not particularly dense, numerous days of preceding dry and windy conditions have resulted in critical dryness of short-hour fuels. Large vapor pressure deficits combined with the strong winds and clear skies should support additional drying through the day. Thus, widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of north-central/northeast KS into southeastern NE. ...Gulf Coast... Dry surface conditions are also possible across parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast in the wake of the departing cold front. While winds are not overly strong, lower humidity should overlap with areas of limited rainfall in recent weeks. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible before rain chances increase late tonight into Friday. ..Lyons.. 02/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing upper trough over the eastern US, a weak trough over the southern Plains should lift north into the central US. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern US will drive strong southerly return flow across parts of OK KS and NE this afternoon. Warm and dry surface conditions will also be present supporting potential for critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central Plains... With the approach of the weak upper low, surface pressure gradients are forecast to quickly tighten over the southern and central Plains. Surface winds will quickly increase to 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 30-35 mph through the day. Aided by clear skies and strong heating, afternoon RH values within the dry southerly flow should fall as low as 15-20%. While area fuel loading is not particularly dense, numerous days of preceding dry and windy conditions have resulted in critical dryness of short-hour fuels. Large vapor pressure deficits combined with the strong winds and clear skies should support additional drying through the day. Thus, widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of north-central/northeast KS into southeastern NE. ...Gulf Coast... Dry surface conditions are also possible across parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast in the wake of the departing cold front. While winds are not overly strong, lower humidity should overlap with areas of limited rainfall in recent weeks. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible before rain chances increase late tonight into Friday. ..Lyons.. 02/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of a departing upper trough over the eastern US, a weak trough over the southern Plains should lift north into the central US. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern US will drive strong southerly return flow across parts of OK KS and NE this afternoon. Warm and dry surface conditions will also be present supporting potential for critical fire-weather conditions. ...Central Plains... With the approach of the weak upper low, surface pressure gradients are forecast to quickly tighten over the southern and central Plains. Surface winds will quickly increase to 20-25 mph with gusts as high as 30-35 mph through the day. Aided by clear skies and strong heating, afternoon RH values within the dry southerly flow should fall as low as 15-20%. While area fuel loading is not particularly dense, numerous days of preceding dry and windy conditions have resulted in critical dryness of short-hour fuels. Large vapor pressure deficits combined with the strong winds and clear skies should support additional drying through the day. Thus, widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of north-central/northeast KS into southeastern NE. ...Gulf Coast... Dry surface conditions are also possible across parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast in the wake of the departing cold front. While winds are not overly strong, lower humidity should overlap with areas of limited rainfall in recent weeks. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible before rain chances increase late tonight into Friday. ..Lyons.. 02/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more