Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ...Northern FL Peninsula and vicinity... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move through broad cyclonic flow and approach the FL Peninsula during the afternoon. Ascent attendant to this feature will aid diurnal thunderstorm development from far south GA into the northern FL Peninsula, along/south of a weak surface boundary. Generally weak instability and only modest deep-layer shear should tend to limit the severe risk, but a strong storm or two capable of small hail and gusty winds will be possible, especially in areas where greater pre-convective warming can occur through the day. ...Parts of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A deep mid/upper-level trough will continue moving eastward across the western CONUS through the day. A surface low initially over eastern WA is forecast to move eastward toward the northern High Plains by evening. A strong cold front attendant to this low will move across the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the afternoon. Steep lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft (-25C to -30C at 500 mb), and favorable ascent will support development of one or more bands of low-topped convection along the front as it moves eastward. This frontal convection will pose a threat of at least sporadic lightning flashes from parts of NV into UT/WY and southeast ID, accompanied by strong wind gusts and potential snow-squall conditions. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low through tonight. ...Synopsis... Low-topped convection will continue across parts of the West tonight, in association with a deep mid/upper-level trough that continues to move inland from the eastern Pacific. Cool surface temperatures will generally limit instability and the severe threat, though a stronger storm or two capable of small hail and gusty winds will remain possible through the evening. Clusters of generally weak convection are ongoing across parts of the Southeast this evening, where modest instability is in place ahead of a weakening midlevel shortwave trough that is traversing the region. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out across parts of the FL Panhandle, where somewhat richer low-level moisture is in place, but a general displacement between stronger large-scale ascent and more favorable instability is expected to limit severe-thunderstorm potential. ..Dean.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low through tonight. ...Synopsis... Low-topped convection will continue across parts of the West tonight, in association with a deep mid/upper-level trough that continues to move inland from the eastern Pacific. Cool surface temperatures will generally limit instability and the severe threat, though a stronger storm or two capable of small hail and gusty winds will remain possible through the evening. Clusters of generally weak convection are ongoing across parts of the Southeast this evening, where modest instability is in place ahead of a weakening midlevel shortwave trough that is traversing the region. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out across parts of the FL Panhandle, where somewhat richer low-level moisture is in place, but a general displacement between stronger large-scale ascent and more favorable instability is expected to limit severe-thunderstorm potential. ..Dean.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low through tonight. ...Synopsis... Low-topped convection will continue across parts of the West tonight, in association with a deep mid/upper-level trough that continues to move inland from the eastern Pacific. Cool surface temperatures will generally limit instability and the severe threat, though a stronger storm or two capable of small hail and gusty winds will remain possible through the evening. Clusters of generally weak convection are ongoing across parts of the Southeast this evening, where modest instability is in place ahead of a weakening midlevel shortwave trough that is traversing the region. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out across parts of the FL Panhandle, where somewhat richer low-level moisture is in place, but a general displacement between stronger large-scale ascent and more favorable instability is expected to limit severe-thunderstorm potential. ..Dean.. 03/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low through tonight. ...Synopsis... Low-topped convection will continue across parts of the West tonight, in association with a deep mid/upper-level trough that continues to move inland from the eastern Pacific. Cool surface temperatures will generally limit instability and the severe threat, though a stronger storm or two capable of small hail and gusty winds will remain possible through the evening. Clusters of generally weak convection are ongoing across parts of the Southeast this evening, where modest instability is in place ahead of a weakening midlevel shortwave trough that is traversing the region. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out across parts of the FL Panhandle, where somewhat richer low-level moisture is in place, but a general displacement between stronger large-scale ascent and more favorable instability is expected to limit severe-thunderstorm potential. ..Dean.. 03/02/2024 Read more

MD 0181 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE SIERRA IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0181 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Areas affected...portions of the higher terrain over the Sierra in central California Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 011846Z - 020045Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are expected to gradually increase through the afternoon and early evening hours at higher elevations along portions of the Sierra Nevada. Blizzard conditions should also become more widespread as snowfall and winds increase. DISCUSSION...Persistent precipitation continues across the northern half of CA as the primary trough axis associated with an upstream upper wave approaches the West Coast. VWP observations from southern OR to central CA have shown an uptick in mid-level winds over the past couple of hours - particularly within a belt of enhanced mid-level moisture notable in recent IR/water-vapor imagery. This mid-level flow is forecast to continue to increase through the afternoon and early evening hours as the trough approaches, which will bolster orographic ascent along the portions of the Sierra Nevada range. Latest surface observations and web cams continue to show areas of moderate to heavy snowfall ongoing roughly above 5 kft. Further intensification of snowfall rates - as high as 2-3 in/hour by late afternoon/early evening - is anticipated as ascent increases. Although ridge line winds in excess of 100 mph have already been reported at a few locations, wind gusts between 60-75 mph should become more common between 5-8 kft as stronger 800-700 mb winds approach the region. This should promote an increase in coverage of blizzard conditions heading into the late afternoon and evening hours. ..Moore.. 03/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...REV...HNX...STO... LAT...LON 38221929 37951905 37801899 37661897 37541905 37471914 37521936 37751962 38432028 39062067 39572091 39802086 39862059 39752039 39202011 38972004 38531963 38221929 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 1 22:33:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0181 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE SIERRA IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0181 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Areas affected...portions of the higher terrain over the Sierra in central California Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 011846Z - 020045Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are expected to gradually increase through the afternoon and early evening hours at higher elevations along portions of the Sierra Nevada. Blizzard conditions should also become more widespread as snowfall and winds increase. DISCUSSION...Persistent precipitation continues across the northern half of CA as the primary trough axis associated with an upstream upper wave approaches the West Coast. VWP observations from southern OR to central CA have shown an uptick in mid-level winds over the past couple of hours - particularly within a belt of enhanced mid-level moisture notable in recent IR/water-vapor imagery. This mid-level flow is forecast to continue to increase through the afternoon and early evening hours as the trough approaches, which will bolster orographic ascent along the portions of the Sierra Nevada range. Latest surface observations and web cams continue to show areas of moderate to heavy snowfall ongoing roughly above 5 kft. Further intensification of snowfall rates - as high as 2-3 in/hour by late afternoon/early evening - is anticipated as ascent increases. Although ridge line winds in excess of 100 mph have already been reported at a few locations, wind gusts between 60-75 mph should become more common between 5-8 kft as stronger 800-700 mb winds approach the region. This should promote an increase in coverage of blizzard conditions heading into the late afternoon and evening hours. ..Moore.. 03/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...REV...HNX...STO... LAT...LON 38221929 37951905 37801899 37661897 37541905 37471914 37521936 37751962 38432028 39062067 39572091 39802086 39862059 39752039 39202011 38972004 38531963 38221929 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid-level trough will impinge on the central U.S. on Day 3/Sunday, encouraging the development and passage of a surface low across the northern Plains, with a secondary surface low also developing over the southern High Plains. Westerly downslope flow will encourage critically dry and windy surface conditions across portions of the Southern Plains, where higher Critical probabilities remain in place. From Days 4-7/Monday-Thursday, generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across the Plains, with low RH (around/below 20% by afternoon) and occasionally gusty surface winds encouraging localized wildfire-spread potential. By Thursday into Friday of next week, another surface cyclone will encourage dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. Given minimal precipitation accumulations expected through the extended term, fuels should support wildfire-spread potential late next week. The primary mitigating factor to introducing Critical probabilities for late next week is the lack of agreement among medium-range guidance members in the placement and timing of critically dry/windy conditions. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should increase to some degree later next week. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid-level trough will impinge on the central U.S. on Day 3/Sunday, encouraging the development and passage of a surface low across the northern Plains, with a secondary surface low also developing over the southern High Plains. Westerly downslope flow will encourage critically dry and windy surface conditions across portions of the Southern Plains, where higher Critical probabilities remain in place. From Days 4-7/Monday-Thursday, generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across the Plains, with low RH (around/below 20% by afternoon) and occasionally gusty surface winds encouraging localized wildfire-spread potential. By Thursday into Friday of next week, another surface cyclone will encourage dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. Given minimal precipitation accumulations expected through the extended term, fuels should support wildfire-spread potential late next week. The primary mitigating factor to introducing Critical probabilities for late next week is the lack of agreement among medium-range guidance members in the placement and timing of critically dry/windy conditions. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should increase to some degree later next week. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid-level trough will impinge on the central U.S. on Day 3/Sunday, encouraging the development and passage of a surface low across the northern Plains, with a secondary surface low also developing over the southern High Plains. Westerly downslope flow will encourage critically dry and windy surface conditions across portions of the Southern Plains, where higher Critical probabilities remain in place. From Days 4-7/Monday-Thursday, generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across the Plains, with low RH (around/below 20% by afternoon) and occasionally gusty surface winds encouraging localized wildfire-spread potential. By Thursday into Friday of next week, another surface cyclone will encourage dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. Given minimal precipitation accumulations expected through the extended term, fuels should support wildfire-spread potential late next week. The primary mitigating factor to introducing Critical probabilities for late next week is the lack of agreement among medium-range guidance members in the placement and timing of critically dry/windy conditions. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should increase to some degree later next week. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid-level trough will impinge on the central U.S. on Day 3/Sunday, encouraging the development and passage of a surface low across the northern Plains, with a secondary surface low also developing over the southern High Plains. Westerly downslope flow will encourage critically dry and windy surface conditions across portions of the Southern Plains, where higher Critical probabilities remain in place. From Days 4-7/Monday-Thursday, generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across the Plains, with low RH (around/below 20% by afternoon) and occasionally gusty surface winds encouraging localized wildfire-spread potential. By Thursday into Friday of next week, another surface cyclone will encourage dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. Given minimal precipitation accumulations expected through the extended term, fuels should support wildfire-spread potential late next week. The primary mitigating factor to introducing Critical probabilities for late next week is the lack of agreement among medium-range guidance members in the placement and timing of critically dry/windy conditions. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should increase to some degree later next week. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid-level trough will impinge on the central U.S. on Day 3/Sunday, encouraging the development and passage of a surface low across the northern Plains, with a secondary surface low also developing over the southern High Plains. Westerly downslope flow will encourage critically dry and windy surface conditions across portions of the Southern Plains, where higher Critical probabilities remain in place. From Days 4-7/Monday-Thursday, generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across the Plains, with low RH (around/below 20% by afternoon) and occasionally gusty surface winds encouraging localized wildfire-spread potential. By Thursday into Friday of next week, another surface cyclone will encourage dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains. Given minimal precipitation accumulations expected through the extended term, fuels should support wildfire-spread potential late next week. The primary mitigating factor to introducing Critical probabilities for late next week is the lack of agreement among medium-range guidance members in the placement and timing of critically dry/windy conditions. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should increase to some degree later next week. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered storms are most likely over the Southeast, and along northern parts of the West Coast. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the previous forecast. Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening across the Southeast states as a shortwave trough continues to move eastward through the Lower/Mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys. Overall storm intensity will remain limited by scant buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes are expected to continue throughout the period from the coastal Pacific Northwest into the CA Central Valley. A few flashes remain possible across ID as well. ..Mosier.. 03/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/ ...Southeast... A progressive upper trough will track across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions today, with the associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms will occur ahead of the front through the day and into tonight. There is some potential for a more robust storm or two this afternoon and evening from southeast LA into the FL panhandle, where a marginally unstable surface air mass spreads onshore. However, current indications are that storms will remain below severe limits. ...Northwestern States.. Other isolated thunderstorms are expected through the forecast period along the Pacific Northwest Coast and coastal ranges and strong onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft enhance the convective threat. Finally, a few thunderstorms may occur over portions of ID as an upper trough digs into the western states. No severe storms are expected in either of these regions. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered storms are most likely over the Southeast, and along northern parts of the West Coast. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the previous forecast. Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening across the Southeast states as a shortwave trough continues to move eastward through the Lower/Mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys. Overall storm intensity will remain limited by scant buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes are expected to continue throughout the period from the coastal Pacific Northwest into the CA Central Valley. A few flashes remain possible across ID as well. ..Mosier.. 03/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/ ...Southeast... A progressive upper trough will track across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions today, with the associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms will occur ahead of the front through the day and into tonight. There is some potential for a more robust storm or two this afternoon and evening from southeast LA into the FL panhandle, where a marginally unstable surface air mass spreads onshore. However, current indications are that storms will remain below severe limits. ...Northwestern States.. Other isolated thunderstorms are expected through the forecast period along the Pacific Northwest Coast and coastal ranges and strong onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft enhance the convective threat. Finally, a few thunderstorms may occur over portions of ID as an upper trough digs into the western states. No severe storms are expected in either of these regions. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered storms are most likely over the Southeast, and along northern parts of the West Coast. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the previous forecast. Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening across the Southeast states as a shortwave trough continues to move eastward through the Lower/Mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys. Overall storm intensity will remain limited by scant buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes are expected to continue throughout the period from the coastal Pacific Northwest into the CA Central Valley. A few flashes remain possible across ID as well. ..Mosier.. 03/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/ ...Southeast... A progressive upper trough will track across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions today, with the associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms will occur ahead of the front through the day and into tonight. There is some potential for a more robust storm or two this afternoon and evening from southeast LA into the FL panhandle, where a marginally unstable surface air mass spreads onshore. However, current indications are that storms will remain below severe limits. ...Northwestern States.. Other isolated thunderstorms are expected through the forecast period along the Pacific Northwest Coast and coastal ranges and strong onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft enhance the convective threat. Finally, a few thunderstorms may occur over portions of ID as an upper trough digs into the western states. No severe storms are expected in either of these regions. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered storms are most likely over the Southeast, and along northern parts of the West Coast. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the previous forecast. Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening across the Southeast states as a shortwave trough continues to move eastward through the Lower/Mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys. Overall storm intensity will remain limited by scant buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes are expected to continue throughout the period from the coastal Pacific Northwest into the CA Central Valley. A few flashes remain possible across ID as well. ..Mosier.. 03/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/ ...Southeast... A progressive upper trough will track across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions today, with the associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms will occur ahead of the front through the day and into tonight. There is some potential for a more robust storm or two this afternoon and evening from southeast LA into the FL panhandle, where a marginally unstable surface air mass spreads onshore. However, current indications are that storms will remain below severe limits. ...Northwestern States.. Other isolated thunderstorms are expected through the forecast period along the Pacific Northwest Coast and coastal ranges and strong onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft enhance the convective threat. Finally, a few thunderstorms may occur over portions of ID as an upper trough digs into the western states. No severe storms are expected in either of these regions. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered storms are most likely over the Southeast, and along northern parts of the West Coast. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the previous forecast. Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening across the Southeast states as a shortwave trough continues to move eastward through the Lower/Mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys. Overall storm intensity will remain limited by scant buoyancy. Isolated lightning flashes are expected to continue throughout the period from the coastal Pacific Northwest into the CA Central Valley. A few flashes remain possible across ID as well. ..Mosier.. 03/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/ ...Southeast... A progressive upper trough will track across the OH Valley and Great Lakes regions today, with the associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Scattered thunderstorms will occur ahead of the front through the day and into tonight. There is some potential for a more robust storm or two this afternoon and evening from southeast LA into the FL panhandle, where a marginally unstable surface air mass spreads onshore. However, current indications are that storms will remain below severe limits. ...Northwestern States.. Other isolated thunderstorms are expected through the forecast period along the Pacific Northwest Coast and coastal ranges and strong onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft enhance the convective threat. Finally, a few thunderstorms may occur over portions of ID as an upper trough digs into the western states. No severe storms are expected in either of these regions. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track. The only changes made to the current forecast were to expand Elevated highlights farther south into Far West Texas, with expansions also made farther east into northwestern Oklahoma. Critical highlights were also expanded farther north into eastern Colorado, and farther east into western Kansas. Expansions were made to reflect the latest guidance consensus in dry and windy conditions supporting wildfire spread tomorrow/Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft crossing the Rockies during the afternoon. At the same time, a lee surface cyclone will rapidly deepen over the northern High Plains, while a lee trough and tight surface pressure gradient develop southward along the central/southern High Plains. This evolution will lead to a large area of strong/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and low RH across much of the High Plains, where elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Strong downslope flow and deep boundary-layer mixing across the central/southern High Plains will support an expansive area of 10-percent minimum RH and temperatures in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s despite increasing high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. Here, the tightening surface pressure gradient and mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor widespread 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given drying of fine fuels across the region on D1/Friday, Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern CO, northeast NM, the TX/OK Panhandles, far western OK, and far southwest KS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track. The only changes made to the current forecast were to expand Elevated highlights farther south into Far West Texas, with expansions also made farther east into northwestern Oklahoma. Critical highlights were also expanded farther north into eastern Colorado, and farther east into western Kansas. Expansions were made to reflect the latest guidance consensus in dry and windy conditions supporting wildfire spread tomorrow/Saturday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the western CONUS, with the leading edge of the strong flow aloft crossing the Rockies during the afternoon. At the same time, a lee surface cyclone will rapidly deepen over the northern High Plains, while a lee trough and tight surface pressure gradient develop southward along the central/southern High Plains. This evolution will lead to a large area of strong/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds and low RH across much of the High Plains, where elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Central and Southern High Plains... Strong downslope flow and deep boundary-layer mixing across the central/southern High Plains will support an expansive area of 10-percent minimum RH and temperatures in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s despite increasing high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. Here, the tightening surface pressure gradient and mixing into the strong flow aloft will favor widespread 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given drying of fine fuels across the region on D1/Friday, Critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern CO, northeast NM, the TX/OK Panhandles, far western OK, and far southwest KS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more