Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST IL... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest. ...Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys into Great Lakes... Recent surface analysis places a low over far southeast NE. Residual cloudiness and showers northeast of this low are helping to reinforce a warm-front-like baroclinic zone that extends from low eastward along the IA/MO border through central IL and IN. This boundary will likely sharpen throughout the day as the cloudiness and showers persist to its north and temperatures warm into 90s to its south. As a result, a reservoir of strong buoyancy is anticipated south of this boundary from southern IA into northern/central MO and western IL. Lift associated with the surface low, as well as its parent convectively augmented shortwave trough, will interact with this destabilized and buoyant airmass to support thunderstorm development by the early afternoon. Moderate vertical shear will be in place throughout the base of the shortwave, helping to organize some of these storms. However, the corridor of strongest shear is relatively narrow, with the broader environment characterized by weak mid-level flow and limited vertical shear. As such, a somewhat messy convection evolution appears probable. Initial development is expected over southern IA during the early afternoon. This activity will likely be elevated just north of the warm front. Additional warm sector development is also possible farther east across west-central/northwest IL. This initial development could be more cellular, with both hail and damaging gusts as primary risks. However, given the presence of a surface low as well as the warm front, some tornado risk is possible with these initially more cellular storms as well. Convective coverage is expected to increase with overall evolution towards a more linear mode anticipated with time. Damaging wind gusts should become the more predominant potential hazard as this occurs with the line moving east/southeastward this evening. Threat for brief embedded tornadoes exists within this evolving convective line as well. ...Central High Plains... The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast WY and northeast CO into adjacent southwest NE/northwest KS. Some initial supercells capable of large hail can be expected, and one or more eastward-moving clusters may evolve by evening with severe-caliber winds also a possibility. ...Southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 50 to low 60s) is currently in place across eastern NM, which will help offset some of the mixing anticipated as the airmass heats into the 90s this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain of central/northern NM and the Raton Mesa, with these storms then progressing eastward/southeastward into the moderately moist, deeply mixed, and unstable airmass downstream across the southern High Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are expected, with the higher storm coverage likely facilitating cold pool amalgamation and the development of one or more forward-propagating convective clusters. Strong wind gusts would be possible within these clusters, with severe coverage expected to be high enough to merit introducing 15% wind probabilities. ...Upper Midwest... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected within a narrow corridor near the east/southeastward-moving front this afternoon from north-central MN southwestward into eastern SD, This will be influenced by the amplifying upper-level trough approaching the Dakotas/northern MN. The strongest winds aloft/vertical shear will tend to lag the front, but ample near/pre-frontal buoyancy will support storms capable of hail/wind. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST IL... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest. ...Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys into Great Lakes... Recent surface analysis places a low over far southeast NE. Residual cloudiness and showers northeast of this low are helping to reinforce a warm-front-like baroclinic zone that extends from low eastward along the IA/MO border through central IL and IN. This boundary will likely sharpen throughout the day as the cloudiness and showers persist to its north and temperatures warm into 90s to its south. As a result, a reservoir of strong buoyancy is anticipated south of this boundary from southern IA into northern/central MO and western IL. Lift associated with the surface low, as well as its parent convectively augmented shortwave trough, will interact with this destabilized and buoyant airmass to support thunderstorm development by the early afternoon. Moderate vertical shear will be in place throughout the base of the shortwave, helping to organize some of these storms. However, the corridor of strongest shear is relatively narrow, with the broader environment characterized by weak mid-level flow and limited vertical shear. As such, a somewhat messy convection evolution appears probable. Initial development is expected over southern IA during the early afternoon. This activity will likely be elevated just north of the warm front. Additional warm sector development is also possible farther east across west-central/northwest IL. This initial development could be more cellular, with both hail and damaging gusts as primary risks. However, given the presence of a surface low as well as the warm front, some tornado risk is possible with these initially more cellular storms as well. Convective coverage is expected to increase with overall evolution towards a more linear mode anticipated with time. Damaging wind gusts should become the more predominant potential hazard as this occurs with the line moving east/southeastward this evening. Threat for brief embedded tornadoes exists within this evolving convective line as well. ...Central High Plains... The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast WY and northeast CO into adjacent southwest NE/northwest KS. Some initial supercells capable of large hail can be expected, and one or more eastward-moving clusters may evolve by evening with severe-caliber winds also a possibility. ...Southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 50 to low 60s) is currently in place across eastern NM, which will help offset some of the mixing anticipated as the airmass heats into the 90s this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain of central/northern NM and the Raton Mesa, with these storms then progressing eastward/southeastward into the moderately moist, deeply mixed, and unstable airmass downstream across the southern High Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are expected, with the higher storm coverage likely facilitating cold pool amalgamation and the development of one or more forward-propagating convective clusters. Strong wind gusts would be possible within these clusters, with severe coverage expected to be high enough to merit introducing 15% wind probabilities. ...Upper Midwest... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected within a narrow corridor near the east/southeastward-moving front this afternoon from north-central MN southwestward into eastern SD, This will be influenced by the amplifying upper-level trough approaching the Dakotas/northern MN. The strongest winds aloft/vertical shear will tend to lag the front, but ample near/pre-frontal buoyancy will support storms capable of hail/wind. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST IL... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest. ...Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys into Great Lakes... Recent surface analysis places a low over far southeast NE. Residual cloudiness and showers northeast of this low are helping to reinforce a warm-front-like baroclinic zone that extends from low eastward along the IA/MO border through central IL and IN. This boundary will likely sharpen throughout the day as the cloudiness and showers persist to its north and temperatures warm into 90s to its south. As a result, a reservoir of strong buoyancy is anticipated south of this boundary from southern IA into northern/central MO and western IL. Lift associated with the surface low, as well as its parent convectively augmented shortwave trough, will interact with this destabilized and buoyant airmass to support thunderstorm development by the early afternoon. Moderate vertical shear will be in place throughout the base of the shortwave, helping to organize some of these storms. However, the corridor of strongest shear is relatively narrow, with the broader environment characterized by weak mid-level flow and limited vertical shear. As such, a somewhat messy convection evolution appears probable. Initial development is expected over southern IA during the early afternoon. This activity will likely be elevated just north of the warm front. Additional warm sector development is also possible farther east across west-central/northwest IL. This initial development could be more cellular, with both hail and damaging gusts as primary risks. However, given the presence of a surface low as well as the warm front, some tornado risk is possible with these initially more cellular storms as well. Convective coverage is expected to increase with overall evolution towards a more linear mode anticipated with time. Damaging wind gusts should become the more predominant potential hazard as this occurs with the line moving east/southeastward this evening. Threat for brief embedded tornadoes exists within this evolving convective line as well. ...Central High Plains... The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast WY and northeast CO into adjacent southwest NE/northwest KS. Some initial supercells capable of large hail can be expected, and one or more eastward-moving clusters may evolve by evening with severe-caliber winds also a possibility. ...Southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 50 to low 60s) is currently in place across eastern NM, which will help offset some of the mixing anticipated as the airmass heats into the 90s this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain of central/northern NM and the Raton Mesa, with these storms then progressing eastward/southeastward into the moderately moist, deeply mixed, and unstable airmass downstream across the southern High Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are expected, with the higher storm coverage likely facilitating cold pool amalgamation and the development of one or more forward-propagating convective clusters. Strong wind gusts would be possible within these clusters, with severe coverage expected to be high enough to merit introducing 15% wind probabilities. ...Upper Midwest... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected within a narrow corridor near the east/southeastward-moving front this afternoon from north-central MN southwestward into eastern SD, This will be influenced by the amplifying upper-level trough approaching the Dakotas/northern MN. The strongest winds aloft/vertical shear will tend to lag the front, but ample near/pre-frontal buoyancy will support storms capable of hail/wind. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor adjustments made to the isolated dry thunderstorm delineation to account for the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will increase in amplitude across the western US today, with mainly terrain driven breezes expected where fuels are the driest. Across portions of western Colorado, a shortwave trough will bring isolated dry thunderstorms within a plume of shallow mid-level moisture. Fuels within this region are critically dry with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, with fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. New fire activity has been noted over the last 24-48 hours with lightning activity. An isolated dry thunderstorm area was maintained across this region with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor adjustments made to the isolated dry thunderstorm delineation to account for the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will increase in amplitude across the western US today, with mainly terrain driven breezes expected where fuels are the driest. Across portions of western Colorado, a shortwave trough will bring isolated dry thunderstorms within a plume of shallow mid-level moisture. Fuels within this region are critically dry with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, with fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. New fire activity has been noted over the last 24-48 hours with lightning activity. An isolated dry thunderstorm area was maintained across this region with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor adjustments made to the isolated dry thunderstorm delineation to account for the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will increase in amplitude across the western US today, with mainly terrain driven breezes expected where fuels are the driest. Across portions of western Colorado, a shortwave trough will bring isolated dry thunderstorms within a plume of shallow mid-level moisture. Fuels within this region are critically dry with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, with fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. New fire activity has been noted over the last 24-48 hours with lightning activity. An isolated dry thunderstorm area was maintained across this region with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor adjustments made to the isolated dry thunderstorm delineation to account for the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will increase in amplitude across the western US today, with mainly terrain driven breezes expected where fuels are the driest. Across portions of western Colorado, a shortwave trough will bring isolated dry thunderstorms within a plume of shallow mid-level moisture. Fuels within this region are critically dry with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, with fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. New fire activity has been noted over the last 24-48 hours with lightning activity. An isolated dry thunderstorm area was maintained across this region with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor adjustments made to the isolated dry thunderstorm delineation to account for the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will increase in amplitude across the western US today, with mainly terrain driven breezes expected where fuels are the driest. Across portions of western Colorado, a shortwave trough will bring isolated dry thunderstorms within a plume of shallow mid-level moisture. Fuels within this region are critically dry with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, with fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. New fire activity has been noted over the last 24-48 hours with lightning activity. An isolated dry thunderstorm area was maintained across this region with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor adjustments made to the isolated dry thunderstorm delineation to account for the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will increase in amplitude across the western US today, with mainly terrain driven breezes expected where fuels are the driest. Across portions of western Colorado, a shortwave trough will bring isolated dry thunderstorms within a plume of shallow mid-level moisture. Fuels within this region are critically dry with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, with fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. New fire activity has been noted over the last 24-48 hours with lightning activity. An isolated dry thunderstorm area was maintained across this region with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor adjustments made to the isolated dry thunderstorm delineation to account for the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will increase in amplitude across the western US today, with mainly terrain driven breezes expected where fuels are the driest. Across portions of western Colorado, a shortwave trough will bring isolated dry thunderstorms within a plume of shallow mid-level moisture. Fuels within this region are critically dry with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, with fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. New fire activity has been noted over the last 24-48 hours with lightning activity. An isolated dry thunderstorm area was maintained across this region with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor adjustments made to the isolated dry thunderstorm delineation to account for the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will increase in amplitude across the western US today, with mainly terrain driven breezes expected where fuels are the driest. Across portions of western Colorado, a shortwave trough will bring isolated dry thunderstorms within a plume of shallow mid-level moisture. Fuels within this region are critically dry with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, with fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. New fire activity has been noted over the last 24-48 hours with lightning activity. An isolated dry thunderstorm area was maintained across this region with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor adjustments made to the isolated dry thunderstorm delineation to account for the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will increase in amplitude across the western US today, with mainly terrain driven breezes expected where fuels are the driest. Across portions of western Colorado, a shortwave trough will bring isolated dry thunderstorms within a plume of shallow mid-level moisture. Fuels within this region are critically dry with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, with fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. New fire activity has been noted over the last 24-48 hours with lightning activity. An isolated dry thunderstorm area was maintained across this region with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor adjustments made to the isolated dry thunderstorm delineation to account for the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will increase in amplitude across the western US today, with mainly terrain driven breezes expected where fuels are the driest. Across portions of western Colorado, a shortwave trough will bring isolated dry thunderstorms within a plume of shallow mid-level moisture. Fuels within this region are critically dry with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, with fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. New fire activity has been noted over the last 24-48 hours with lightning activity. An isolated dry thunderstorm area was maintained across this region with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor adjustments made to the isolated dry thunderstorm delineation to account for the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will increase in amplitude across the western US today, with mainly terrain driven breezes expected where fuels are the driest. Across portions of western Colorado, a shortwave trough will bring isolated dry thunderstorms within a plume of shallow mid-level moisture. Fuels within this region are critically dry with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, with fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. New fire activity has been noted over the last 24-48 hours with lightning activity. An isolated dry thunderstorm area was maintained across this region with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor adjustments made to the isolated dry thunderstorm delineation to account for the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will increase in amplitude across the western US today, with mainly terrain driven breezes expected where fuels are the driest. Across portions of western Colorado, a shortwave trough will bring isolated dry thunderstorms within a plume of shallow mid-level moisture. Fuels within this region are critically dry with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, with fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. New fire activity has been noted over the last 24-48 hours with lightning activity. An isolated dry thunderstorm area was maintained across this region with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor adjustments made to the isolated dry thunderstorm delineation to account for the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will increase in amplitude across the western US today, with mainly terrain driven breezes expected where fuels are the driest. Across portions of western Colorado, a shortwave trough will bring isolated dry thunderstorms within a plume of shallow mid-level moisture. Fuels within this region are critically dry with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, with fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. New fire activity has been noted over the last 24-48 hours with lightning activity. An isolated dry thunderstorm area was maintained across this region with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor adjustments made to the isolated dry thunderstorm delineation to account for the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will increase in amplitude across the western US today, with mainly terrain driven breezes expected where fuels are the driest. Across portions of western Colorado, a shortwave trough will bring isolated dry thunderstorms within a plume of shallow mid-level moisture. Fuels within this region are critically dry with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, with fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. New fire activity has been noted over the last 24-48 hours with lightning activity. An isolated dry thunderstorm area was maintained across this region with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor adjustments made to the isolated dry thunderstorm delineation to account for the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will increase in amplitude across the western US today, with mainly terrain driven breezes expected where fuels are the driest. Across portions of western Colorado, a shortwave trough will bring isolated dry thunderstorms within a plume of shallow mid-level moisture. Fuels within this region are critically dry with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, with fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. New fire activity has been noted over the last 24-48 hours with lightning activity. An isolated dry thunderstorm area was maintained across this region with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor adjustments made to the isolated dry thunderstorm delineation to account for the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure will increase in amplitude across the western US today, with mainly terrain driven breezes expected where fuels are the driest. Across portions of western Colorado, a shortwave trough will bring isolated dry thunderstorms within a plume of shallow mid-level moisture. Fuels within this region are critically dry with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, with fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. New fire activity has been noted over the last 24-48 hours with lightning activity. An isolated dry thunderstorm area was maintained across this region with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest. ...Midwest/Lower Missouri Valley to Great Lakes... A decayed overnight MCS and residual convection/cloud cover will reinforce the baroclinic zone regionally. Near/south of the boundary, surface dew points near and above 70F, beneath modestly steep mid-level lapse rates, are forecast to contribute to CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg. This will be beneath a lingering belt of convectively augmented mid-level flow (on the order of 30-50 kt in the 700-500 mb layer). Coupled with modest, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs in advance of a weak surface wave, the environment should become conducive to supercell structures into mid/late afternoon. These supercells may pose a risk for hail and potentially a couple of tornadoes across parts of northern Missouri and southern/eastern Iowa into northern Illinois, and possibly far southern Wisconsin. Damaging wind gusts should become the more predominant potential hazard as convection tends to grow upscale into east/southeastward-moving clusters this evening. ...Central High Plains... The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast Wyoming and northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska/northwest Kansas. Some initial supercells capable of large hail can be expected, and one or more east/eastward-moving clusters may evolve by evening with severe-caliber winds also a possibility. ...Upper Midwest... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected near the east/southeastward-moving front this afternoon, including the eastern Dakotas into much of Minnesota. This will be influenced by the amplifying upper-level trough approaching the Dakotas/northern Minnesota. The strongest winds aloft/vertical shear will tend to lag the front, but ample near/pre-frontal buoyancy will support storms capable of hail/wind. ...Southern Rockies into the Great Plains... Thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest low-level moisture, but with generally steep lapse rates, including fairly deep boundary-layer mixing, may become conducive to scattered thunderstorm clusters posing a risk for severe wind and hail late this afternoon and evening. A degree of storm organization may be aided by modest shear beneath northwesterly mid-level flow, with thunderstorm activity mostly initiating off the higher terrain of the Front Range through Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Additionally, low-level convergence within surface troughing across southern Kansas through the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity may also become sufficient for thunderstorm initiation during the peak late afternoon heating, and one or more semi-organized clusters capable of wind damage could evolve. This region will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for potential inclusion of a wind-related Slight Risk. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 07/11/2025 Read more