Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 3 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO...AND MUCH OF EASTERN MICHIGAN... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT MARGINAL LINE GROUPING ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across northeast Indiana, northwest Ohio, into eastern Michigan on Saturday. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ... Synopsis ... The large-scale pattern across the US on Saturday will feature mid-level ridges on both coasts and a broad trough across the central US. Within this cyclonic flow, multiple vorticity ribbons will quickly move northeast across the Great Lakes and into Ontario. At the surface, a cold front will stretch from Wisconsin southwest into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandles at the start of the forecast period and should move east across Michigan while making little forward progress across the southern Great Plains. ... Great Lakes Region ... A lead shortwave trough/vorticity maximum will quickly move through eastern Wisconsin and lower Michigan during the late morning into afternoon. In response to the approaching trough, a modest low-level jet will support surface dewpoints rising to/being sustained in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs range. Given the degree of low-level moisture, modest diurnal heating will support most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg. As large-scale ascent overspreads the surface cold front across lower Michigan, one or more bands of convection are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Despite effective-layer shear being generally less than 35 knots, some severe potential will exist with this convection -- primarily strong downdraft winds -- owing to the degree of instability and precipitable water values around 1.75". Additionally, with a modest low-level jet and a preexisting boundary in the vicinity, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Farther west, in response to the large-scale ascent for the second, stronger shortwave trough, a second round of thunderstorms may develop across portions of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Despite being post frontal, diurnal heating and residual low-level moisture will support most-unstable CAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Isolated large hail and strong thunderstorm outflows will be possible. ... Central and Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains ... One or more decaying MCSs and perhaps attendant MCVs may be ongoing at the start of the period across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into Oklahoma. The combination of multiple potential outflow boundaries and localized ascent associated with any MCV will result in scattered to widespread thunderstorm development through the period. Diurnal heating of a very moist airmass will result in CAPE values perhaps as high as 3000 J/kg across portions of the area. This degree of instability coupled with precipitable water values approaching 2 inches will yield the potential for wet microbursts and associated damaging winds. Despite wind being the more likely severe threat, isolated large hail may also be possible given the degree of instability, especially early in the thunderstorm life cycle. During the afternoon, additional thunderstorms are anticipated across the higher terrain of the central and southern Rockies within a moist upslope low-level flow. Modest northwesterly mid-level flow and perhaps a subtle short-wave trough will help organize the convection into a slow moving south-southeast moving MCS. If confidence increases in a well-organized MCS, the area may need to be upgraded to categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk driven by wind potential. ..Marsh.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 3 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO...AND MUCH OF EASTERN MICHIGAN... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT MARGINAL LINE GROUPING ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across northeast Indiana, northwest Ohio, into eastern Michigan on Saturday. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ... Synopsis ... The large-scale pattern across the US on Saturday will feature mid-level ridges on both coasts and a broad trough across the central US. Within this cyclonic flow, multiple vorticity ribbons will quickly move northeast across the Great Lakes and into Ontario. At the surface, a cold front will stretch from Wisconsin southwest into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandles at the start of the forecast period and should move east across Michigan while making little forward progress across the southern Great Plains. ... Great Lakes Region ... A lead shortwave trough/vorticity maximum will quickly move through eastern Wisconsin and lower Michigan during the late morning into afternoon. In response to the approaching trough, a modest low-level jet will support surface dewpoints rising to/being sustained in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs range. Given the degree of low-level moisture, modest diurnal heating will support most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg. As large-scale ascent overspreads the surface cold front across lower Michigan, one or more bands of convection are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Despite effective-layer shear being generally less than 35 knots, some severe potential will exist with this convection -- primarily strong downdraft winds -- owing to the degree of instability and precipitable water values around 1.75". Additionally, with a modest low-level jet and a preexisting boundary in the vicinity, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Farther west, in response to the large-scale ascent for the second, stronger shortwave trough, a second round of thunderstorms may develop across portions of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Despite being post frontal, diurnal heating and residual low-level moisture will support most-unstable CAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Isolated large hail and strong thunderstorm outflows will be possible. ... Central and Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains ... One or more decaying MCSs and perhaps attendant MCVs may be ongoing at the start of the period across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into Oklahoma. The combination of multiple potential outflow boundaries and localized ascent associated with any MCV will result in scattered to widespread thunderstorm development through the period. Diurnal heating of a very moist airmass will result in CAPE values perhaps as high as 3000 J/kg across portions of the area. This degree of instability coupled with precipitable water values approaching 2 inches will yield the potential for wet microbursts and associated damaging winds. Despite wind being the more likely severe threat, isolated large hail may also be possible given the degree of instability, especially early in the thunderstorm life cycle. During the afternoon, additional thunderstorms are anticipated across the higher terrain of the central and southern Rockies within a moist upslope low-level flow. Modest northwesterly mid-level flow and perhaps a subtle short-wave trough will help organize the convection into a slow moving south-southeast moving MCS. If confidence increases in a well-organized MCS, the area may need to be upgraded to categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk driven by wind potential. ..Marsh.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 3 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO...AND MUCH OF EASTERN MICHIGAN... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT MARGINAL LINE GROUPING ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across northeast Indiana, northwest Ohio, into eastern Michigan on Saturday. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ... Synopsis ... The large-scale pattern across the US on Saturday will feature mid-level ridges on both coasts and a broad trough across the central US. Within this cyclonic flow, multiple vorticity ribbons will quickly move northeast across the Great Lakes and into Ontario. At the surface, a cold front will stretch from Wisconsin southwest into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandles at the start of the forecast period and should move east across Michigan while making little forward progress across the southern Great Plains. ... Great Lakes Region ... A lead shortwave trough/vorticity maximum will quickly move through eastern Wisconsin and lower Michigan during the late morning into afternoon. In response to the approaching trough, a modest low-level jet will support surface dewpoints rising to/being sustained in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs range. Given the degree of low-level moisture, modest diurnal heating will support most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg. As large-scale ascent overspreads the surface cold front across lower Michigan, one or more bands of convection are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Despite effective-layer shear being generally less than 35 knots, some severe potential will exist with this convection -- primarily strong downdraft winds -- owing to the degree of instability and precipitable water values around 1.75". Additionally, with a modest low-level jet and a preexisting boundary in the vicinity, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Farther west, in response to the large-scale ascent for the second, stronger shortwave trough, a second round of thunderstorms may develop across portions of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Despite being post frontal, diurnal heating and residual low-level moisture will support most-unstable CAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Isolated large hail and strong thunderstorm outflows will be possible. ... Central and Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains ... One or more decaying MCSs and perhaps attendant MCVs may be ongoing at the start of the period across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into Oklahoma. The combination of multiple potential outflow boundaries and localized ascent associated with any MCV will result in scattered to widespread thunderstorm development through the period. Diurnal heating of a very moist airmass will result in CAPE values perhaps as high as 3000 J/kg across portions of the area. This degree of instability coupled with precipitable water values approaching 2 inches will yield the potential for wet microbursts and associated damaging winds. Despite wind being the more likely severe threat, isolated large hail may also be possible given the degree of instability, especially early in the thunderstorm life cycle. During the afternoon, additional thunderstorms are anticipated across the higher terrain of the central and southern Rockies within a moist upslope low-level flow. Modest northwesterly mid-level flow and perhaps a subtle short-wave trough will help organize the convection into a slow moving south-southeast moving MCS. If confidence increases in a well-organized MCS, the area may need to be upgraded to categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk driven by wind potential. ..Marsh.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 3 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO...AND MUCH OF EASTERN MICHIGAN... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT MARGINAL LINE GROUPING ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across northeast Indiana, northwest Ohio, into eastern Michigan on Saturday. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ... Synopsis ... The large-scale pattern across the US on Saturday will feature mid-level ridges on both coasts and a broad trough across the central US. Within this cyclonic flow, multiple vorticity ribbons will quickly move northeast across the Great Lakes and into Ontario. At the surface, a cold front will stretch from Wisconsin southwest into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandles at the start of the forecast period and should move east across Michigan while making little forward progress across the southern Great Plains. ... Great Lakes Region ... A lead shortwave trough/vorticity maximum will quickly move through eastern Wisconsin and lower Michigan during the late morning into afternoon. In response to the approaching trough, a modest low-level jet will support surface dewpoints rising to/being sustained in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs range. Given the degree of low-level moisture, modest diurnal heating will support most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg. As large-scale ascent overspreads the surface cold front across lower Michigan, one or more bands of convection are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Despite effective-layer shear being generally less than 35 knots, some severe potential will exist with this convection -- primarily strong downdraft winds -- owing to the degree of instability and precipitable water values around 1.75". Additionally, with a modest low-level jet and a preexisting boundary in the vicinity, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Farther west, in response to the large-scale ascent for the second, stronger shortwave trough, a second round of thunderstorms may develop across portions of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Despite being post frontal, diurnal heating and residual low-level moisture will support most-unstable CAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Isolated large hail and strong thunderstorm outflows will be possible. ... Central and Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains ... One or more decaying MCSs and perhaps attendant MCVs may be ongoing at the start of the period across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into Oklahoma. The combination of multiple potential outflow boundaries and localized ascent associated with any MCV will result in scattered to widespread thunderstorm development through the period. Diurnal heating of a very moist airmass will result in CAPE values perhaps as high as 3000 J/kg across portions of the area. This degree of instability coupled with precipitable water values approaching 2 inches will yield the potential for wet microbursts and associated damaging winds. Despite wind being the more likely severe threat, isolated large hail may also be possible given the degree of instability, especially early in the thunderstorm life cycle. During the afternoon, additional thunderstorms are anticipated across the higher terrain of the central and southern Rockies within a moist upslope low-level flow. Modest northwesterly mid-level flow and perhaps a subtle short-wave trough will help organize the convection into a slow moving south-southeast moving MCS. If confidence increases in a well-organized MCS, the area may need to be upgraded to categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk driven by wind potential. ..Marsh.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 3 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO...AND MUCH OF EASTERN MICHIGAN... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT MARGINAL LINE GROUPING ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across northeast Indiana, northwest Ohio, into eastern Michigan on Saturday. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ... Synopsis ... The large-scale pattern across the US on Saturday will feature mid-level ridges on both coasts and a broad trough across the central US. Within this cyclonic flow, multiple vorticity ribbons will quickly move northeast across the Great Lakes and into Ontario. At the surface, a cold front will stretch from Wisconsin southwest into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandles at the start of the forecast period and should move east across Michigan while making little forward progress across the southern Great Plains. ... Great Lakes Region ... A lead shortwave trough/vorticity maximum will quickly move through eastern Wisconsin and lower Michigan during the late morning into afternoon. In response to the approaching trough, a modest low-level jet will support surface dewpoints rising to/being sustained in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs range. Given the degree of low-level moisture, modest diurnal heating will support most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg. As large-scale ascent overspreads the surface cold front across lower Michigan, one or more bands of convection are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Despite effective-layer shear being generally less than 35 knots, some severe potential will exist with this convection -- primarily strong downdraft winds -- owing to the degree of instability and precipitable water values around 1.75". Additionally, with a modest low-level jet and a preexisting boundary in the vicinity, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Farther west, in response to the large-scale ascent for the second, stronger shortwave trough, a second round of thunderstorms may develop across portions of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Despite being post frontal, diurnal heating and residual low-level moisture will support most-unstable CAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Isolated large hail and strong thunderstorm outflows will be possible. ... Central and Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains ... One or more decaying MCSs and perhaps attendant MCVs may be ongoing at the start of the period across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into Oklahoma. The combination of multiple potential outflow boundaries and localized ascent associated with any MCV will result in scattered to widespread thunderstorm development through the period. Diurnal heating of a very moist airmass will result in CAPE values perhaps as high as 3000 J/kg across portions of the area. This degree of instability coupled with precipitable water values approaching 2 inches will yield the potential for wet microbursts and associated damaging winds. Despite wind being the more likely severe threat, isolated large hail may also be possible given the degree of instability, especially early in the thunderstorm life cycle. During the afternoon, additional thunderstorms are anticipated across the higher terrain of the central and southern Rockies within a moist upslope low-level flow. Modest northwesterly mid-level flow and perhaps a subtle short-wave trough will help organize the convection into a slow moving south-southeast moving MCS. If confidence increases in a well-organized MCS, the area may need to be upgraded to categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk driven by wind potential. ..Marsh.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 3 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO...AND MUCH OF EASTERN MICHIGAN... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT MARGINAL LINE GROUPING ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across northeast Indiana, northwest Ohio, into eastern Michigan on Saturday. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ... Synopsis ... The large-scale pattern across the US on Saturday will feature mid-level ridges on both coasts and a broad trough across the central US. Within this cyclonic flow, multiple vorticity ribbons will quickly move northeast across the Great Lakes and into Ontario. At the surface, a cold front will stretch from Wisconsin southwest into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandles at the start of the forecast period and should move east across Michigan while making little forward progress across the southern Great Plains. ... Great Lakes Region ... A lead shortwave trough/vorticity maximum will quickly move through eastern Wisconsin and lower Michigan during the late morning into afternoon. In response to the approaching trough, a modest low-level jet will support surface dewpoints rising to/being sustained in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs range. Given the degree of low-level moisture, modest diurnal heating will support most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg. As large-scale ascent overspreads the surface cold front across lower Michigan, one or more bands of convection are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Despite effective-layer shear being generally less than 35 knots, some severe potential will exist with this convection -- primarily strong downdraft winds -- owing to the degree of instability and precipitable water values around 1.75". Additionally, with a modest low-level jet and a preexisting boundary in the vicinity, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Farther west, in response to the large-scale ascent for the second, stronger shortwave trough, a second round of thunderstorms may develop across portions of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Despite being post frontal, diurnal heating and residual low-level moisture will support most-unstable CAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Isolated large hail and strong thunderstorm outflows will be possible. ... Central and Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains ... One or more decaying MCSs and perhaps attendant MCVs may be ongoing at the start of the period across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into Oklahoma. The combination of multiple potential outflow boundaries and localized ascent associated with any MCV will result in scattered to widespread thunderstorm development through the period. Diurnal heating of a very moist airmass will result in CAPE values perhaps as high as 3000 J/kg across portions of the area. This degree of instability coupled with precipitable water values approaching 2 inches will yield the potential for wet microbursts and associated damaging winds. Despite wind being the more likely severe threat, isolated large hail may also be possible given the degree of instability, especially early in the thunderstorm life cycle. During the afternoon, additional thunderstorms are anticipated across the higher terrain of the central and southern Rockies within a moist upslope low-level flow. Modest northwesterly mid-level flow and perhaps a subtle short-wave trough will help organize the convection into a slow moving south-southeast moving MCS. If confidence increases in a well-organized MCS, the area may need to be upgraded to categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk driven by wind potential. ..Marsh.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 3 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO...AND MUCH OF EASTERN MICHIGAN... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT MARGINAL LINE GROUPING ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across northeast Indiana, northwest Ohio, into eastern Michigan on Saturday. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ... Synopsis ... The large-scale pattern across the US on Saturday will feature mid-level ridges on both coasts and a broad trough across the central US. Within this cyclonic flow, multiple vorticity ribbons will quickly move northeast across the Great Lakes and into Ontario. At the surface, a cold front will stretch from Wisconsin southwest into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandles at the start of the forecast period and should move east across Michigan while making little forward progress across the southern Great Plains. ... Great Lakes Region ... A lead shortwave trough/vorticity maximum will quickly move through eastern Wisconsin and lower Michigan during the late morning into afternoon. In response to the approaching trough, a modest low-level jet will support surface dewpoints rising to/being sustained in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs range. Given the degree of low-level moisture, modest diurnal heating will support most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg. As large-scale ascent overspreads the surface cold front across lower Michigan, one or more bands of convection are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Despite effective-layer shear being generally less than 35 knots, some severe potential will exist with this convection -- primarily strong downdraft winds -- owing to the degree of instability and precipitable water values around 1.75". Additionally, with a modest low-level jet and a preexisting boundary in the vicinity, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Farther west, in response to the large-scale ascent for the second, stronger shortwave trough, a second round of thunderstorms may develop across portions of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Despite being post frontal, diurnal heating and residual low-level moisture will support most-unstable CAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Isolated large hail and strong thunderstorm outflows will be possible. ... Central and Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains ... One or more decaying MCSs and perhaps attendant MCVs may be ongoing at the start of the period across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into Oklahoma. The combination of multiple potential outflow boundaries and localized ascent associated with any MCV will result in scattered to widespread thunderstorm development through the period. Diurnal heating of a very moist airmass will result in CAPE values perhaps as high as 3000 J/kg across portions of the area. This degree of instability coupled with precipitable water values approaching 2 inches will yield the potential for wet microbursts and associated damaging winds. Despite wind being the more likely severe threat, isolated large hail may also be possible given the degree of instability, especially early in the thunderstorm life cycle. During the afternoon, additional thunderstorms are anticipated across the higher terrain of the central and southern Rockies within a moist upslope low-level flow. Modest northwesterly mid-level flow and perhaps a subtle short-wave trough will help organize the convection into a slow moving south-southeast moving MCS. If confidence increases in a well-organized MCS, the area may need to be upgraded to categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk driven by wind potential. ..Marsh.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 3 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO...AND MUCH OF EASTERN MICHIGAN... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT MARGINAL LINE GROUPING ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across northeast Indiana, northwest Ohio, into eastern Michigan on Saturday. A broad swath of isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening. ... Synopsis ... The large-scale pattern across the US on Saturday will feature mid-level ridges on both coasts and a broad trough across the central US. Within this cyclonic flow, multiple vorticity ribbons will quickly move northeast across the Great Lakes and into Ontario. At the surface, a cold front will stretch from Wisconsin southwest into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandles at the start of the forecast period and should move east across Michigan while making little forward progress across the southern Great Plains. ... Great Lakes Region ... A lead shortwave trough/vorticity maximum will quickly move through eastern Wisconsin and lower Michigan during the late morning into afternoon. In response to the approaching trough, a modest low-level jet will support surface dewpoints rising to/being sustained in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs range. Given the degree of low-level moisture, modest diurnal heating will support most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg. As large-scale ascent overspreads the surface cold front across lower Michigan, one or more bands of convection are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Despite effective-layer shear being generally less than 35 knots, some severe potential will exist with this convection -- primarily strong downdraft winds -- owing to the degree of instability and precipitable water values around 1.75". Additionally, with a modest low-level jet and a preexisting boundary in the vicinity, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Farther west, in response to the large-scale ascent for the second, stronger shortwave trough, a second round of thunderstorms may develop across portions of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Despite being post frontal, diurnal heating and residual low-level moisture will support most-unstable CAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Isolated large hail and strong thunderstorm outflows will be possible. ... Central and Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains ... One or more decaying MCSs and perhaps attendant MCVs may be ongoing at the start of the period across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into Oklahoma. The combination of multiple potential outflow boundaries and localized ascent associated with any MCV will result in scattered to widespread thunderstorm development through the period. Diurnal heating of a very moist airmass will result in CAPE values perhaps as high as 3000 J/kg across portions of the area. This degree of instability coupled with precipitable water values approaching 2 inches will yield the potential for wet microbursts and associated damaging winds. Despite wind being the more likely severe threat, isolated large hail may also be possible given the degree of instability, especially early in the thunderstorm life cycle. During the afternoon, additional thunderstorms are anticipated across the higher terrain of the central and southern Rockies within a moist upslope low-level flow. Modest northwesterly mid-level flow and perhaps a subtle short-wave trough will help organize the convection into a slow moving south-southeast moving MCS. If confidence increases in a well-organized MCS, the area may need to be upgraded to categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk driven by wind potential. ..Marsh.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible again, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible again, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible again, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible again, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible again, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible again, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible again, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible again, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible again, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible again, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible again, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... High pressure will increase in amplitude across the western US today, with mainly terrain driven breezes expected where fuels are the driest. Across portions of western Colorado, a shortwave trough will bring isolated dry thunderstorms within a plume of shallow mid-level moisture. Fuels within this region are critically dry with ERCs exceeding critically dry thresholds, with fuel moisture dipping into the single digits amid a severe drought and more than a month without appreciable rainfall. New fire activity has been noted over the last 24-48 hours with lightning activity. An isolated dry thunderstorm area was maintained across this region with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more