Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper ridging should dominate the western into south-central CONUS through at least early next week, before the ridge flattens through the remainder of next week. Multiple mid-level impulses will crest the ridge through early next week, providing enough upper support to induce dry and windy conditions along the Cascades on Day 3 (Sunday) and Days 4-5 (Monday-Tuesday), where 40 percent critical probabilities have been maintained. Monsoonal moisture will continue to linger around the Four Corners region into next week, providing a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms nearly every day into next week. Given that storms may be on the wetter side, and may occur over the same regions (hence the dampening of fuels), no dry thunderstorm probabilities were added to this region. Isolated dry thunderstorms may become an increasing concern across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin/Central Rockies region through parts of next week as mid-level troughs traverse the Interior West. However, given the overall weak forcing with these low-amplitude troughs, and differences in timing of the troughs in medium-range guidance, confidence is too low to specify the location and timing of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper ridging should dominate the western into south-central CONUS through at least early next week, before the ridge flattens through the remainder of next week. Multiple mid-level impulses will crest the ridge through early next week, providing enough upper support to induce dry and windy conditions along the Cascades on Day 3 (Sunday) and Days 4-5 (Monday-Tuesday), where 40 percent critical probabilities have been maintained. Monsoonal moisture will continue to linger around the Four Corners region into next week, providing a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms nearly every day into next week. Given that storms may be on the wetter side, and may occur over the same regions (hence the dampening of fuels), no dry thunderstorm probabilities were added to this region. Isolated dry thunderstorms may become an increasing concern across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin/Central Rockies region through parts of next week as mid-level troughs traverse the Interior West. However, given the overall weak forcing with these low-amplitude troughs, and differences in timing of the troughs in medium-range guidance, confidence is too low to specify the location and timing of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley.. An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal. ...VA northward into NY... Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows spreading across a larger area from NY into PA. ..Jewell.. 07/11/2025 Read more