Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST IL... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest. ...20Z Update... Minor modifications were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations and expected convective evolution. Please see the previous forecast for additional forecast details. ..Wendt.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys into Great Lakes... Recent surface analysis places a low over far southeast NE. Residual cloudiness and showers northeast of this low are helping to reinforce a warm-front-like baroclinic zone that extends from low eastward along the IA/MO border through central IL and IN. This boundary will likely sharpen throughout the day as the cloudiness and showers persist to its north and temperatures warm into 90s to its south. As a result, a reservoir of strong buoyancy is anticipated south of this boundary from southern IA into northern/central MO and western IL. Lift associated with the surface low, as well as its parent convectively augmented shortwave trough, will interact with this destabilized and buoyant airmass to support thunderstorm development by the early afternoon. Moderate vertical shear will be in place throughout the base of the shortwave, helping to organize some of these storms. However, the corridor of strongest shear is relatively narrow, with the broader environment characterized by weak mid-level flow and limited vertical shear. As such, a somewhat messy convection evolution appears probable. Initial development is expected over southern IA during the early afternoon. This activity will likely be elevated just north of the warm front. Additional warm sector development is also possible farther east across west-central/northwest IL. This initial development could be more cellular, with both hail and damaging gusts as primary risks. However, given the presence of a surface low as well as the warm front, some tornado risk is possible with these initially more cellular storms as well. Convective coverage is expected to increase with overall evolution towards a more linear mode anticipated with time. Damaging wind gusts should become the more predominant potential hazard as this occurs with the line moving east/southeastward this evening. Threat for brief embedded tornadoes exists within this evolving convective line as well. ...Central High Plains... The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast WY and northeast CO into adjacent southwest NE/northwest KS. Some initial supercells capable of large hail can be expected, and one or more eastward-moving clusters may evolve by evening with severe-caliber winds also a possibility. ...Southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 50 to low 60s) is currently in place across eastern NM, which will help offset some of the mixing anticipated as the airmass heats into the 90s this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain of central/northern NM and the Raton Mesa, with these storms then progressing eastward/southeastward into the moderately moist, deeply mixed, and unstable airmass downstream across the southern High Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are expected, with the higher storm coverage likely facilitating cold pool amalgamation and the development of one or more forward-propagating convective clusters. Strong wind gusts would be possible within these clusters, with severe coverage expected to be high enough to merit introducing 15% wind probabilities. ...Upper Midwest... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected within a narrow corridor near the east/southeastward-moving front this afternoon from north-central MN southwestward into eastern SD, This will be influenced by the amplifying upper-level trough approaching the Dakotas/northern MN. The strongest winds aloft/vertical shear will tend to lag the front, but ample near/pre-frontal buoyancy will support storms capable of hail/wind. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST IL... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest. ...20Z Update... Minor modifications were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations and expected convective evolution. Please see the previous forecast for additional forecast details. ..Wendt.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys into Great Lakes... Recent surface analysis places a low over far southeast NE. Residual cloudiness and showers northeast of this low are helping to reinforce a warm-front-like baroclinic zone that extends from low eastward along the IA/MO border through central IL and IN. This boundary will likely sharpen throughout the day as the cloudiness and showers persist to its north and temperatures warm into 90s to its south. As a result, a reservoir of strong buoyancy is anticipated south of this boundary from southern IA into northern/central MO and western IL. Lift associated with the surface low, as well as its parent convectively augmented shortwave trough, will interact with this destabilized and buoyant airmass to support thunderstorm development by the early afternoon. Moderate vertical shear will be in place throughout the base of the shortwave, helping to organize some of these storms. However, the corridor of strongest shear is relatively narrow, with the broader environment characterized by weak mid-level flow and limited vertical shear. As such, a somewhat messy convection evolution appears probable. Initial development is expected over southern IA during the early afternoon. This activity will likely be elevated just north of the warm front. Additional warm sector development is also possible farther east across west-central/northwest IL. This initial development could be more cellular, with both hail and damaging gusts as primary risks. However, given the presence of a surface low as well as the warm front, some tornado risk is possible with these initially more cellular storms as well. Convective coverage is expected to increase with overall evolution towards a more linear mode anticipated with time. Damaging wind gusts should become the more predominant potential hazard as this occurs with the line moving east/southeastward this evening. Threat for brief embedded tornadoes exists within this evolving convective line as well. ...Central High Plains... The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast WY and northeast CO into adjacent southwest NE/northwest KS. Some initial supercells capable of large hail can be expected, and one or more eastward-moving clusters may evolve by evening with severe-caliber winds also a possibility. ...Southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 50 to low 60s) is currently in place across eastern NM, which will help offset some of the mixing anticipated as the airmass heats into the 90s this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain of central/northern NM and the Raton Mesa, with these storms then progressing eastward/southeastward into the moderately moist, deeply mixed, and unstable airmass downstream across the southern High Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are expected, with the higher storm coverage likely facilitating cold pool amalgamation and the development of one or more forward-propagating convective clusters. Strong wind gusts would be possible within these clusters, with severe coverage expected to be high enough to merit introducing 15% wind probabilities. ...Upper Midwest... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected within a narrow corridor near the east/southeastward-moving front this afternoon from north-central MN southwestward into eastern SD, This will be influenced by the amplifying upper-level trough approaching the Dakotas/northern MN. The strongest winds aloft/vertical shear will tend to lag the front, but ample near/pre-frontal buoyancy will support storms capable of hail/wind. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST IL... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest. ...20Z Update... Minor modifications were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations and expected convective evolution. Please see the previous forecast for additional forecast details. ..Wendt.. 07/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ ...Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys into Great Lakes... Recent surface analysis places a low over far southeast NE. Residual cloudiness and showers northeast of this low are helping to reinforce a warm-front-like baroclinic zone that extends from low eastward along the IA/MO border through central IL and IN. This boundary will likely sharpen throughout the day as the cloudiness and showers persist to its north and temperatures warm into 90s to its south. As a result, a reservoir of strong buoyancy is anticipated south of this boundary from southern IA into northern/central MO and western IL. Lift associated with the surface low, as well as its parent convectively augmented shortwave trough, will interact with this destabilized and buoyant airmass to support thunderstorm development by the early afternoon. Moderate vertical shear will be in place throughout the base of the shortwave, helping to organize some of these storms. However, the corridor of strongest shear is relatively narrow, with the broader environment characterized by weak mid-level flow and limited vertical shear. As such, a somewhat messy convection evolution appears probable. Initial development is expected over southern IA during the early afternoon. This activity will likely be elevated just north of the warm front. Additional warm sector development is also possible farther east across west-central/northwest IL. This initial development could be more cellular, with both hail and damaging gusts as primary risks. However, given the presence of a surface low as well as the warm front, some tornado risk is possible with these initially more cellular storms as well. Convective coverage is expected to increase with overall evolution towards a more linear mode anticipated with time. Damaging wind gusts should become the more predominant potential hazard as this occurs with the line moving east/southeastward this evening. Threat for brief embedded tornadoes exists within this evolving convective line as well. ...Central High Plains... The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast WY and northeast CO into adjacent southwest NE/northwest KS. Some initial supercells capable of large hail can be expected, and one or more eastward-moving clusters may evolve by evening with severe-caliber winds also a possibility. ...Southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 50 to low 60s) is currently in place across eastern NM, which will help offset some of the mixing anticipated as the airmass heats into the 90s this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain of central/northern NM and the Raton Mesa, with these storms then progressing eastward/southeastward into the moderately moist, deeply mixed, and unstable airmass downstream across the southern High Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are expected, with the higher storm coverage likely facilitating cold pool amalgamation and the development of one or more forward-propagating convective clusters. Strong wind gusts would be possible within these clusters, with severe coverage expected to be high enough to merit introducing 15% wind probabilities. ...Upper Midwest... At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected within a narrow corridor near the east/southeastward-moving front this afternoon from north-central MN southwestward into eastern SD, This will be influenced by the amplifying upper-level trough approaching the Dakotas/northern MN. The strongest winds aloft/vertical shear will tend to lag the front, but ample near/pre-frontal buoyancy will support storms capable of hail/wind. Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper ridging should dominate the western into south-central CONUS through at least early next week, before the ridge flattens through the remainder of next week. Multiple mid-level impulses will crest the ridge through early next week, providing enough upper support to induce dry and windy conditions along the Cascades on Day 3 (Sunday) and Days 4-5 (Monday-Tuesday), where 40 percent critical probabilities have been maintained. Monsoonal moisture will continue to linger around the Four Corners region into next week, providing a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms nearly every day into next week. Given that storms may be on the wetter side, and may occur over the same regions (hence the dampening of fuels), no dry thunderstorm probabilities were added to this region. Isolated dry thunderstorms may become an increasing concern across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin/Central Rockies region through parts of next week as mid-level troughs traverse the Interior West. However, given the overall weak forcing with these low-amplitude troughs, and differences in timing of the troughs in medium-range guidance, confidence is too low to specify the location and timing of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper ridging should dominate the western into south-central CONUS through at least early next week, before the ridge flattens through the remainder of next week. Multiple mid-level impulses will crest the ridge through early next week, providing enough upper support to induce dry and windy conditions along the Cascades on Day 3 (Sunday) and Days 4-5 (Monday-Tuesday), where 40 percent critical probabilities have been maintained. Monsoonal moisture will continue to linger around the Four Corners region into next week, providing a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms nearly every day into next week. Given that storms may be on the wetter side, and may occur over the same regions (hence the dampening of fuels), no dry thunderstorm probabilities were added to this region. Isolated dry thunderstorms may become an increasing concern across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin/Central Rockies region through parts of next week as mid-level troughs traverse the Interior West. However, given the overall weak forcing with these low-amplitude troughs, and differences in timing of the troughs in medium-range guidance, confidence is too low to specify the location and timing of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper ridging should dominate the western into south-central CONUS through at least early next week, before the ridge flattens through the remainder of next week. Multiple mid-level impulses will crest the ridge through early next week, providing enough upper support to induce dry and windy conditions along the Cascades on Day 3 (Sunday) and Days 4-5 (Monday-Tuesday), where 40 percent critical probabilities have been maintained. Monsoonal moisture will continue to linger around the Four Corners region into next week, providing a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms nearly every day into next week. Given that storms may be on the wetter side, and may occur over the same regions (hence the dampening of fuels), no dry thunderstorm probabilities were added to this region. Isolated dry thunderstorms may become an increasing concern across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin/Central Rockies region through parts of next week as mid-level troughs traverse the Interior West. However, given the overall weak forcing with these low-amplitude troughs, and differences in timing of the troughs in medium-range guidance, confidence is too low to specify the location and timing of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper ridging should dominate the western into south-central CONUS through at least early next week, before the ridge flattens through the remainder of next week. Multiple mid-level impulses will crest the ridge through early next week, providing enough upper support to induce dry and windy conditions along the Cascades on Day 3 (Sunday) and Days 4-5 (Monday-Tuesday), where 40 percent critical probabilities have been maintained. Monsoonal moisture will continue to linger around the Four Corners region into next week, providing a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms nearly every day into next week. Given that storms may be on the wetter side, and may occur over the same regions (hence the dampening of fuels), no dry thunderstorm probabilities were added to this region. Isolated dry thunderstorms may become an increasing concern across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin/Central Rockies region through parts of next week as mid-level troughs traverse the Interior West. However, given the overall weak forcing with these low-amplitude troughs, and differences in timing of the troughs in medium-range guidance, confidence is too low to specify the location and timing of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper ridging should dominate the western into south-central CONUS through at least early next week, before the ridge flattens through the remainder of next week. Multiple mid-level impulses will crest the ridge through early next week, providing enough upper support to induce dry and windy conditions along the Cascades on Day 3 (Sunday) and Days 4-5 (Monday-Tuesday), where 40 percent critical probabilities have been maintained. Monsoonal moisture will continue to linger around the Four Corners region into next week, providing a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms nearly every day into next week. Given that storms may be on the wetter side, and may occur over the same regions (hence the dampening of fuels), no dry thunderstorm probabilities were added to this region. Isolated dry thunderstorms may become an increasing concern across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin/Central Rockies region through parts of next week as mid-level troughs traverse the Interior West. However, given the overall weak forcing with these low-amplitude troughs, and differences in timing of the troughs in medium-range guidance, confidence is too low to specify the location and timing of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper ridging should dominate the western into south-central CONUS through at least early next week, before the ridge flattens through the remainder of next week. Multiple mid-level impulses will crest the ridge through early next week, providing enough upper support to induce dry and windy conditions along the Cascades on Day 3 (Sunday) and Days 4-5 (Monday-Tuesday), where 40 percent critical probabilities have been maintained. Monsoonal moisture will continue to linger around the Four Corners region into next week, providing a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms nearly every day into next week. Given that storms may be on the wetter side, and may occur over the same regions (hence the dampening of fuels), no dry thunderstorm probabilities were added to this region. Isolated dry thunderstorms may become an increasing concern across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin/Central Rockies region through parts of next week as mid-level troughs traverse the Interior West. However, given the overall weak forcing with these low-amplitude troughs, and differences in timing of the troughs in medium-range guidance, confidence is too low to specify the location and timing of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper ridging should dominate the western into south-central CONUS through at least early next week, before the ridge flattens through the remainder of next week. Multiple mid-level impulses will crest the ridge through early next week, providing enough upper support to induce dry and windy conditions along the Cascades on Day 3 (Sunday) and Days 4-5 (Monday-Tuesday), where 40 percent critical probabilities have been maintained. Monsoonal moisture will continue to linger around the Four Corners region into next week, providing a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms nearly every day into next week. Given that storms may be on the wetter side, and may occur over the same regions (hence the dampening of fuels), no dry thunderstorm probabilities were added to this region. Isolated dry thunderstorms may become an increasing concern across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin/Central Rockies region through parts of next week as mid-level troughs traverse the Interior West. However, given the overall weak forcing with these low-amplitude troughs, and differences in timing of the troughs in medium-range guidance, confidence is too low to specify the location and timing of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper ridging should dominate the western into south-central CONUS through at least early next week, before the ridge flattens through the remainder of next week. Multiple mid-level impulses will crest the ridge through early next week, providing enough upper support to induce dry and windy conditions along the Cascades on Day 3 (Sunday) and Days 4-5 (Monday-Tuesday), where 40 percent critical probabilities have been maintained. Monsoonal moisture will continue to linger around the Four Corners region into next week, providing a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms nearly every day into next week. Given that storms may be on the wetter side, and may occur over the same regions (hence the dampening of fuels), no dry thunderstorm probabilities were added to this region. Isolated dry thunderstorms may become an increasing concern across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin/Central Rockies region through parts of next week as mid-level troughs traverse the Interior West. However, given the overall weak forcing with these low-amplitude troughs, and differences in timing of the troughs in medium-range guidance, confidence is too low to specify the location and timing of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper ridging should dominate the western into south-central CONUS through at least early next week, before the ridge flattens through the remainder of next week. Multiple mid-level impulses will crest the ridge through early next week, providing enough upper support to induce dry and windy conditions along the Cascades on Day 3 (Sunday) and Days 4-5 (Monday-Tuesday), where 40 percent critical probabilities have been maintained. Monsoonal moisture will continue to linger around the Four Corners region into next week, providing a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms nearly every day into next week. Given that storms may be on the wetter side, and may occur over the same regions (hence the dampening of fuels), no dry thunderstorm probabilities were added to this region. Isolated dry thunderstorms may become an increasing concern across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin/Central Rockies region through parts of next week as mid-level troughs traverse the Interior West. However, given the overall weak forcing with these low-amplitude troughs, and differences in timing of the troughs in medium-range guidance, confidence is too low to specify the location and timing of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper ridging should dominate the western into south-central CONUS through at least early next week, before the ridge flattens through the remainder of next week. Multiple mid-level impulses will crest the ridge through early next week, providing enough upper support to induce dry and windy conditions along the Cascades on Day 3 (Sunday) and Days 4-5 (Monday-Tuesday), where 40 percent critical probabilities have been maintained. Monsoonal moisture will continue to linger around the Four Corners region into next week, providing a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms nearly every day into next week. Given that storms may be on the wetter side, and may occur over the same regions (hence the dampening of fuels), no dry thunderstorm probabilities were added to this region. Isolated dry thunderstorms may become an increasing concern across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin/Central Rockies region through parts of next week as mid-level troughs traverse the Interior West. However, given the overall weak forcing with these low-amplitude troughs, and differences in timing of the troughs in medium-range guidance, confidence is too low to specify the location and timing of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper ridging should dominate the western into south-central CONUS through at least early next week, before the ridge flattens through the remainder of next week. Multiple mid-level impulses will crest the ridge through early next week, providing enough upper support to induce dry and windy conditions along the Cascades on Day 3 (Sunday) and Days 4-5 (Monday-Tuesday), where 40 percent critical probabilities have been maintained. Monsoonal moisture will continue to linger around the Four Corners region into next week, providing a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms nearly every day into next week. Given that storms may be on the wetter side, and may occur over the same regions (hence the dampening of fuels), no dry thunderstorm probabilities were added to this region. Isolated dry thunderstorms may become an increasing concern across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin/Central Rockies region through parts of next week as mid-level troughs traverse the Interior West. However, given the overall weak forcing with these low-amplitude troughs, and differences in timing of the troughs in medium-range guidance, confidence is too low to specify the location and timing of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper ridging should dominate the western into south-central CONUS through at least early next week, before the ridge flattens through the remainder of next week. Multiple mid-level impulses will crest the ridge through early next week, providing enough upper support to induce dry and windy conditions along the Cascades on Day 3 (Sunday) and Days 4-5 (Monday-Tuesday), where 40 percent critical probabilities have been maintained. Monsoonal moisture will continue to linger around the Four Corners region into next week, providing a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms nearly every day into next week. Given that storms may be on the wetter side, and may occur over the same regions (hence the dampening of fuels), no dry thunderstorm probabilities were added to this region. Isolated dry thunderstorms may become an increasing concern across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin/Central Rockies region through parts of next week as mid-level troughs traverse the Interior West. However, given the overall weak forcing with these low-amplitude troughs, and differences in timing of the troughs in medium-range guidance, confidence is too low to specify the location and timing of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper ridging should dominate the western into south-central CONUS through at least early next week, before the ridge flattens through the remainder of next week. Multiple mid-level impulses will crest the ridge through early next week, providing enough upper support to induce dry and windy conditions along the Cascades on Day 3 (Sunday) and Days 4-5 (Monday-Tuesday), where 40 percent critical probabilities have been maintained. Monsoonal moisture will continue to linger around the Four Corners region into next week, providing a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms nearly every day into next week. Given that storms may be on the wetter side, and may occur over the same regions (hence the dampening of fuels), no dry thunderstorm probabilities were added to this region. Isolated dry thunderstorms may become an increasing concern across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin/Central Rockies region through parts of next week as mid-level troughs traverse the Interior West. However, given the overall weak forcing with these low-amplitude troughs, and differences in timing of the troughs in medium-range guidance, confidence is too low to specify the location and timing of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper ridging should dominate the western into south-central CONUS through at least early next week, before the ridge flattens through the remainder of next week. Multiple mid-level impulses will crest the ridge through early next week, providing enough upper support to induce dry and windy conditions along the Cascades on Day 3 (Sunday) and Days 4-5 (Monday-Tuesday), where 40 percent critical probabilities have been maintained. Monsoonal moisture will continue to linger around the Four Corners region into next week, providing a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms nearly every day into next week. Given that storms may be on the wetter side, and may occur over the same regions (hence the dampening of fuels), no dry thunderstorm probabilities were added to this region. Isolated dry thunderstorms may become an increasing concern across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin/Central Rockies region through parts of next week as mid-level troughs traverse the Interior West. However, given the overall weak forcing with these low-amplitude troughs, and differences in timing of the troughs in medium-range guidance, confidence is too low to specify the location and timing of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper ridging should dominate the western into south-central CONUS through at least early next week, before the ridge flattens through the remainder of next week. Multiple mid-level impulses will crest the ridge through early next week, providing enough upper support to induce dry and windy conditions along the Cascades on Day 3 (Sunday) and Days 4-5 (Monday-Tuesday), where 40 percent critical probabilities have been maintained. Monsoonal moisture will continue to linger around the Four Corners region into next week, providing a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms nearly every day into next week. Given that storms may be on the wetter side, and may occur over the same regions (hence the dampening of fuels), no dry thunderstorm probabilities were added to this region. Isolated dry thunderstorms may become an increasing concern across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin/Central Rockies region through parts of next week as mid-level troughs traverse the Interior West. However, given the overall weak forcing with these low-amplitude troughs, and differences in timing of the troughs in medium-range guidance, confidence is too low to specify the location and timing of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper ridging should dominate the western into south-central CONUS through at least early next week, before the ridge flattens through the remainder of next week. Multiple mid-level impulses will crest the ridge through early next week, providing enough upper support to induce dry and windy conditions along the Cascades on Day 3 (Sunday) and Days 4-5 (Monday-Tuesday), where 40 percent critical probabilities have been maintained. Monsoonal moisture will continue to linger around the Four Corners region into next week, providing a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms nearly every day into next week. Given that storms may be on the wetter side, and may occur over the same regions (hence the dampening of fuels), no dry thunderstorm probabilities were added to this region. Isolated dry thunderstorms may become an increasing concern across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin/Central Rockies region through parts of next week as mid-level troughs traverse the Interior West. However, given the overall weak forcing with these low-amplitude troughs, and differences in timing of the troughs in medium-range guidance, confidence is too low to specify the location and timing of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper ridging should dominate the western into south-central CONUS through at least early next week, before the ridge flattens through the remainder of next week. Multiple mid-level impulses will crest the ridge through early next week, providing enough upper support to induce dry and windy conditions along the Cascades on Day 3 (Sunday) and Days 4-5 (Monday-Tuesday), where 40 percent critical probabilities have been maintained. Monsoonal moisture will continue to linger around the Four Corners region into next week, providing a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms nearly every day into next week. Given that storms may be on the wetter side, and may occur over the same regions (hence the dampening of fuels), no dry thunderstorm probabilities were added to this region. Isolated dry thunderstorms may become an increasing concern across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin/Central Rockies region through parts of next week as mid-level troughs traverse the Interior West. However, given the overall weak forcing with these low-amplitude troughs, and differences in timing of the troughs in medium-range guidance, confidence is too low to specify the location and timing of dry thunderstorms at this time. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more