Severe Storms

WW 0509 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 509 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW FCL TO 40 SSE DGW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1650 ..THORNTON..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 509 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-087-095-115-121-123-125-120240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-039-153-120240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR RAWLINS NEC007-029-033-049-057-063-069-085-087-101-105-111-123-135-145- 120240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0507 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 507 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE OJC TO 10 NNW IRK. ..KERR..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 507 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-149-120240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN PIKE MOC001-007-019-033-037-041-053-089-101-103-107-111-115-121-127- 137-159-163-173-175-195-205-120240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR AUDRAIN BOONE CARROLL CASS CHARITON COOPER HOWARD JOHNSON KNOX LAFAYETTE LEWIS LINN MACON MARION MONROE PETTIS PIKE RALLS RANDOLPH SALINE SHELBY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0508 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW MMO TO 30 ESE RFD TO 20 WSW RAC TO 25 NW MKE. ..KERR..07/12/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 508 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC031-037-043-063-089-093-097-099-103-111-197-120240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COOK DE KALB DUPAGE GRUNDY KANE KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE LEE MCHENRY WILL WIC059-079-101-133-120240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENOSHA MILWAUKEE RACINE WAUKESHA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains. ...Midwest... Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential will diminish overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ...Central High Plains... Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing convective wind threat. ..Grams.. 07/12/2025 Read more