Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK...AND ROUGHLY FROM THE OZARKS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms may occur from southeast Missouri into northwest Texas. ...From central VA/NC northward into northern NY... An upper trough will eject northeastward across Quebec, with modest midlevel winds glancing parts of the Northeast. Veering low-level winds will result in a slowing front, and as such a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the lower Great Lakes. Farther south, into central VA/NC, a surface trough will deepen as heating occurs, with weak flow aloft. While low-end in nature, sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out on the local level, from VA/NC northward into NY within the warm sector. Thunderstorm probabilities are high, though little organization is expected. ...Lower OH Valley across the Ozarks and into northern Texas... Early day rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of MO, OK and AR in association with a weak upper trough. Models indicate outflows may stabilize the air mass over parts of the area, but pockets of stronger instability should redevelop. The strongest heating will likely extend from western TX into northwest TX and this should aid sporadic strong cells capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK...AND ROUGHLY FROM THE OZARKS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms may occur from southeast Missouri into northwest Texas. ...From central VA/NC northward into northern NY... An upper trough will eject northeastward across Quebec, with modest midlevel winds glancing parts of the Northeast. Veering low-level winds will result in a slowing front, and as such a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the lower Great Lakes. Farther south, into central VA/NC, a surface trough will deepen as heating occurs, with weak flow aloft. While low-end in nature, sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out on the local level, from VA/NC northward into NY within the warm sector. Thunderstorm probabilities are high, though little organization is expected. ...Lower OH Valley across the Ozarks and into northern Texas... Early day rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of MO, OK and AR in association with a weak upper trough. Models indicate outflows may stabilize the air mass over parts of the area, but pockets of stronger instability should redevelop. The strongest heating will likely extend from western TX into northwest TX and this should aid sporadic strong cells capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected across eastern Lower Michigan to the Lower/Middle Ohio Valley, mainly from mid-afternoon through sunset. ...Lower MI into Lower/Mid OH Valley... Recent surface analysis shows a pre-frontal wind shift from central Lower MI southwestward through central IN. The cold front itself is a bit farther west, extending across western Lower MI through far northwest IN and southern IL, although the temperature gradient is a bit diffuse. Additionally, satellite imagery shows a series of gravity waves ahead of the pre-frontal wind shift. These waves have aided in the development of thunderstorms over northern Lower MI and farther south in south-central MI. This complex pattern coupled with cloudiness results in uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution across the region today. The highest severe thunderstorm potential still appears to be across north-central/northeast Lower MI, where recent mesoanalysis places a belt of stronger low-level flow. This is verified by the APX VAD, which has recently sampled 30 to 40 kt between 1 and 2 km. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place over the region, and mesoanalysis already estimates minimal convective inhibition with MLCAPE from 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Some filtered heating is ongoing as well, with instability expected to increase through the early afternoon ahead of the approaching front. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1654, there may be a window of opportunity early afternoon this for supercell development along/ahead of the front, especially across northeast lower MI. Any such development would pose a threat of damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. Otherwise, multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell or two will become increasingly possible into this afternoon, with a primary threat of damaging wind. Farther south, lift along the front combined with mesoscale ascent attendant to the convective cluster currently over far southeast MO should result in afternoon thunderstorm development from southern IL/far western KY into much of IN. Strong buoyancy is expected ahead of the front, but shear will be weaker, with a less organized storm mode anticipated. Even so, given the number of storms anticipated, a few convective clusters capable of damaging gusts are possible. This risk should shift eastward into OH and KY before storm weaken this evening. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... A triplet of MCVs is apparent in recent satellite imagery, with one MCV over southwest KS, another over the far eastern TX Panhandle, and the last over the TX South Plains. Thunderstorm development is possible with each of these features, particularly the one moving eastward out of the eastern TX Panhandle into western/central OK. Storms will likely diurnally increase and intensify this afternoon across much of OK and a large part of north TX. Shear will be weak across much of the region, except near the MCV where some low/mid-level flow enhancement is possible. This could result in a few more organized updrafts across north-central/central OK. Even so, deep-layer flow will remain modest, which is expected to limit the overall severe coverage. ...Colorado/New Mexico... Thunderstorm development is again anticipated over the higher terrain of central CO and north-central NM this afternoon. Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies should aid in weak/transient updraft rotation, supporting the potential for isolated severe hail. The airmass across the CO Plains is not expected to be as favorable for storm persistence as the last few days, suggesting the threat for strong gusts is lower. The airmass is a bit more favorable across NM, suggesting a relatively greater chance of a few severe across the NM High Plains. ...WI into Upper MI... Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the secondary cold front advancing eastward across northern/eastern WI and Upper MI. Cooling mid-level temperatures will aid in weak MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly low-level wind profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear, helping to marginalize the overall threat. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas/Virginia... A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for isolated wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening, with tree damage possible. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected across eastern Lower Michigan to the Lower/Middle Ohio Valley, mainly from mid-afternoon through sunset. ...Lower MI into Lower/Mid OH Valley... Recent surface analysis shows a pre-frontal wind shift from central Lower MI southwestward through central IN. The cold front itself is a bit farther west, extending across western Lower MI through far northwest IN and southern IL, although the temperature gradient is a bit diffuse. Additionally, satellite imagery shows a series of gravity waves ahead of the pre-frontal wind shift. These waves have aided in the development of thunderstorms over northern Lower MI and farther south in south-central MI. This complex pattern coupled with cloudiness results in uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution across the region today. The highest severe thunderstorm potential still appears to be across north-central/northeast Lower MI, where recent mesoanalysis places a belt of stronger low-level flow. This is verified by the APX VAD, which has recently sampled 30 to 40 kt between 1 and 2 km. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place over the region, and mesoanalysis already estimates minimal convective inhibition with MLCAPE from 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Some filtered heating is ongoing as well, with instability expected to increase through the early afternoon ahead of the approaching front. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1654, there may be a window of opportunity early afternoon this for supercell development along/ahead of the front, especially across northeast lower MI. Any such development would pose a threat of damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. Otherwise, multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell or two will become increasingly possible into this afternoon, with a primary threat of damaging wind. Farther south, lift along the front combined with mesoscale ascent attendant to the convective cluster currently over far southeast MO should result in afternoon thunderstorm development from southern IL/far western KY into much of IN. Strong buoyancy is expected ahead of the front, but shear will be weaker, with a less organized storm mode anticipated. Even so, given the number of storms anticipated, a few convective clusters capable of damaging gusts are possible. This risk should shift eastward into OH and KY before storm weaken this evening. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... A triplet of MCVs is apparent in recent satellite imagery, with one MCV over southwest KS, another over the far eastern TX Panhandle, and the last over the TX South Plains. Thunderstorm development is possible with each of these features, particularly the one moving eastward out of the eastern TX Panhandle into western/central OK. Storms will likely diurnally increase and intensify this afternoon across much of OK and a large part of north TX. Shear will be weak across much of the region, except near the MCV where some low/mid-level flow enhancement is possible. This could result in a few more organized updrafts across north-central/central OK. Even so, deep-layer flow will remain modest, which is expected to limit the overall severe coverage. ...Colorado/New Mexico... Thunderstorm development is again anticipated over the higher terrain of central CO and north-central NM this afternoon. Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies should aid in weak/transient updraft rotation, supporting the potential for isolated severe hail. The airmass across the CO Plains is not expected to be as favorable for storm persistence as the last few days, suggesting the threat for strong gusts is lower. The airmass is a bit more favorable across NM, suggesting a relatively greater chance of a few severe across the NM High Plains. ...WI into Upper MI... Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the secondary cold front advancing eastward across northern/eastern WI and Upper MI. Cooling mid-level temperatures will aid in weak MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly low-level wind profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear, helping to marginalize the overall threat. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas/Virginia... A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for isolated wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening, with tree damage possible. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected across eastern Lower Michigan to the Lower/Middle Ohio Valley, mainly from mid-afternoon through sunset. ...Lower MI into Lower/Mid OH Valley... Recent surface analysis shows a pre-frontal wind shift from central Lower MI southwestward through central IN. The cold front itself is a bit farther west, extending across western Lower MI through far northwest IN and southern IL, although the temperature gradient is a bit diffuse. Additionally, satellite imagery shows a series of gravity waves ahead of the pre-frontal wind shift. These waves have aided in the development of thunderstorms over northern Lower MI and farther south in south-central MI. This complex pattern coupled with cloudiness results in uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution across the region today. The highest severe thunderstorm potential still appears to be across north-central/northeast Lower MI, where recent mesoanalysis places a belt of stronger low-level flow. This is verified by the APX VAD, which has recently sampled 30 to 40 kt between 1 and 2 km. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place over the region, and mesoanalysis already estimates minimal convective inhibition with MLCAPE from 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Some filtered heating is ongoing as well, with instability expected to increase through the early afternoon ahead of the approaching front. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1654, there may be a window of opportunity early afternoon this for supercell development along/ahead of the front, especially across northeast lower MI. Any such development would pose a threat of damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. Otherwise, multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell or two will become increasingly possible into this afternoon, with a primary threat of damaging wind. Farther south, lift along the front combined with mesoscale ascent attendant to the convective cluster currently over far southeast MO should result in afternoon thunderstorm development from southern IL/far western KY into much of IN. Strong buoyancy is expected ahead of the front, but shear will be weaker, with a less organized storm mode anticipated. Even so, given the number of storms anticipated, a few convective clusters capable of damaging gusts are possible. This risk should shift eastward into OH and KY before storm weaken this evening. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... A triplet of MCVs is apparent in recent satellite imagery, with one MCV over southwest KS, another over the far eastern TX Panhandle, and the last over the TX South Plains. Thunderstorm development is possible with each of these features, particularly the one moving eastward out of the eastern TX Panhandle into western/central OK. Storms will likely diurnally increase and intensify this afternoon across much of OK and a large part of north TX. Shear will be weak across much of the region, except near the MCV where some low/mid-level flow enhancement is possible. This could result in a few more organized updrafts across north-central/central OK. Even so, deep-layer flow will remain modest, which is expected to limit the overall severe coverage. ...Colorado/New Mexico... Thunderstorm development is again anticipated over the higher terrain of central CO and north-central NM this afternoon. Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies should aid in weak/transient updraft rotation, supporting the potential for isolated severe hail. The airmass across the CO Plains is not expected to be as favorable for storm persistence as the last few days, suggesting the threat for strong gusts is lower. The airmass is a bit more favorable across NM, suggesting a relatively greater chance of a few severe across the NM High Plains. ...WI into Upper MI... Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the secondary cold front advancing eastward across northern/eastern WI and Upper MI. Cooling mid-level temperatures will aid in weak MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly low-level wind profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear, helping to marginalize the overall threat. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas/Virginia... A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for isolated wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening, with tree damage possible. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected across eastern Lower Michigan to the Lower/Middle Ohio Valley, mainly from mid-afternoon through sunset. ...Lower MI into Lower/Mid OH Valley... Recent surface analysis shows a pre-frontal wind shift from central Lower MI southwestward through central IN. The cold front itself is a bit farther west, extending across western Lower MI through far northwest IN and southern IL, although the temperature gradient is a bit diffuse. Additionally, satellite imagery shows a series of gravity waves ahead of the pre-frontal wind shift. These waves have aided in the development of thunderstorms over northern Lower MI and farther south in south-central MI. This complex pattern coupled with cloudiness results in uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution across the region today. The highest severe thunderstorm potential still appears to be across north-central/northeast Lower MI, where recent mesoanalysis places a belt of stronger low-level flow. This is verified by the APX VAD, which has recently sampled 30 to 40 kt between 1 and 2 km. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place over the region, and mesoanalysis already estimates minimal convective inhibition with MLCAPE from 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Some filtered heating is ongoing as well, with instability expected to increase through the early afternoon ahead of the approaching front. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1654, there may be a window of opportunity early afternoon this for supercell development along/ahead of the front, especially across northeast lower MI. Any such development would pose a threat of damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. Otherwise, multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell or two will become increasingly possible into this afternoon, with a primary threat of damaging wind. Farther south, lift along the front combined with mesoscale ascent attendant to the convective cluster currently over far southeast MO should result in afternoon thunderstorm development from southern IL/far western KY into much of IN. Strong buoyancy is expected ahead of the front, but shear will be weaker, with a less organized storm mode anticipated. Even so, given the number of storms anticipated, a few convective clusters capable of damaging gusts are possible. This risk should shift eastward into OH and KY before storm weaken this evening. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... A triplet of MCVs is apparent in recent satellite imagery, with one MCV over southwest KS, another over the far eastern TX Panhandle, and the last over the TX South Plains. Thunderstorm development is possible with each of these features, particularly the one moving eastward out of the eastern TX Panhandle into western/central OK. Storms will likely diurnally increase and intensify this afternoon across much of OK and a large part of north TX. Shear will be weak across much of the region, except near the MCV where some low/mid-level flow enhancement is possible. This could result in a few more organized updrafts across north-central/central OK. Even so, deep-layer flow will remain modest, which is expected to limit the overall severe coverage. ...Colorado/New Mexico... Thunderstorm development is again anticipated over the higher terrain of central CO and north-central NM this afternoon. Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies should aid in weak/transient updraft rotation, supporting the potential for isolated severe hail. The airmass across the CO Plains is not expected to be as favorable for storm persistence as the last few days, suggesting the threat for strong gusts is lower. The airmass is a bit more favorable across NM, suggesting a relatively greater chance of a few severe across the NM High Plains. ...WI into Upper MI... Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the secondary cold front advancing eastward across northern/eastern WI and Upper MI. Cooling mid-level temperatures will aid in weak MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly low-level wind profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear, helping to marginalize the overall threat. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas/Virginia... A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for isolated wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening, with tree damage possible. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected across eastern Lower Michigan to the Lower/Middle Ohio Valley, mainly from mid-afternoon through sunset. ...Lower MI into Lower/Mid OH Valley... Recent surface analysis shows a pre-frontal wind shift from central Lower MI southwestward through central IN. The cold front itself is a bit farther west, extending across western Lower MI through far northwest IN and southern IL, although the temperature gradient is a bit diffuse. Additionally, satellite imagery shows a series of gravity waves ahead of the pre-frontal wind shift. These waves have aided in the development of thunderstorms over northern Lower MI and farther south in south-central MI. This complex pattern coupled with cloudiness results in uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution across the region today. The highest severe thunderstorm potential still appears to be across north-central/northeast Lower MI, where recent mesoanalysis places a belt of stronger low-level flow. This is verified by the APX VAD, which has recently sampled 30 to 40 kt between 1 and 2 km. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place over the region, and mesoanalysis already estimates minimal convective inhibition with MLCAPE from 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Some filtered heating is ongoing as well, with instability expected to increase through the early afternoon ahead of the approaching front. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1654, there may be a window of opportunity early afternoon this for supercell development along/ahead of the front, especially across northeast lower MI. Any such development would pose a threat of damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. Otherwise, multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell or two will become increasingly possible into this afternoon, with a primary threat of damaging wind. Farther south, lift along the front combined with mesoscale ascent attendant to the convective cluster currently over far southeast MO should result in afternoon thunderstorm development from southern IL/far western KY into much of IN. Strong buoyancy is expected ahead of the front, but shear will be weaker, with a less organized storm mode anticipated. Even so, given the number of storms anticipated, a few convective clusters capable of damaging gusts are possible. This risk should shift eastward into OH and KY before storm weaken this evening. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... A triplet of MCVs is apparent in recent satellite imagery, with one MCV over southwest KS, another over the far eastern TX Panhandle, and the last over the TX South Plains. Thunderstorm development is possible with each of these features, particularly the one moving eastward out of the eastern TX Panhandle into western/central OK. Storms will likely diurnally increase and intensify this afternoon across much of OK and a large part of north TX. Shear will be weak across much of the region, except near the MCV where some low/mid-level flow enhancement is possible. This could result in a few more organized updrafts across north-central/central OK. Even so, deep-layer flow will remain modest, which is expected to limit the overall severe coverage. ...Colorado/New Mexico... Thunderstorm development is again anticipated over the higher terrain of central CO and north-central NM this afternoon. Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies should aid in weak/transient updraft rotation, supporting the potential for isolated severe hail. The airmass across the CO Plains is not expected to be as favorable for storm persistence as the last few days, suggesting the threat for strong gusts is lower. The airmass is a bit more favorable across NM, suggesting a relatively greater chance of a few severe across the NM High Plains. ...WI into Upper MI... Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the secondary cold front advancing eastward across northern/eastern WI and Upper MI. Cooling mid-level temperatures will aid in weak MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly low-level wind profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear, helping to marginalize the overall threat. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas/Virginia... A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for isolated wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening, with tree damage possible. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected across eastern Lower Michigan to the Lower/Middle Ohio Valley, mainly from mid-afternoon through sunset. ...Lower MI into Lower/Mid OH Valley... Recent surface analysis shows a pre-frontal wind shift from central Lower MI southwestward through central IN. The cold front itself is a bit farther west, extending across western Lower MI through far northwest IN and southern IL, although the temperature gradient is a bit diffuse. Additionally, satellite imagery shows a series of gravity waves ahead of the pre-frontal wind shift. These waves have aided in the development of thunderstorms over northern Lower MI and farther south in south-central MI. This complex pattern coupled with cloudiness results in uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution across the region today. The highest severe thunderstorm potential still appears to be across north-central/northeast Lower MI, where recent mesoanalysis places a belt of stronger low-level flow. This is verified by the APX VAD, which has recently sampled 30 to 40 kt between 1 and 2 km. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place over the region, and mesoanalysis already estimates minimal convective inhibition with MLCAPE from 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Some filtered heating is ongoing as well, with instability expected to increase through the early afternoon ahead of the approaching front. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1654, there may be a window of opportunity early afternoon this for supercell development along/ahead of the front, especially across northeast lower MI. Any such development would pose a threat of damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. Otherwise, multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell or two will become increasingly possible into this afternoon, with a primary threat of damaging wind. Farther south, lift along the front combined with mesoscale ascent attendant to the convective cluster currently over far southeast MO should result in afternoon thunderstorm development from southern IL/far western KY into much of IN. Strong buoyancy is expected ahead of the front, but shear will be weaker, with a less organized storm mode anticipated. Even so, given the number of storms anticipated, a few convective clusters capable of damaging gusts are possible. This risk should shift eastward into OH and KY before storm weaken this evening. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... A triplet of MCVs is apparent in recent satellite imagery, with one MCV over southwest KS, another over the far eastern TX Panhandle, and the last over the TX South Plains. Thunderstorm development is possible with each of these features, particularly the one moving eastward out of the eastern TX Panhandle into western/central OK. Storms will likely diurnally increase and intensify this afternoon across much of OK and a large part of north TX. Shear will be weak across much of the region, except near the MCV where some low/mid-level flow enhancement is possible. This could result in a few more organized updrafts across north-central/central OK. Even so, deep-layer flow will remain modest, which is expected to limit the overall severe coverage. ...Colorado/New Mexico... Thunderstorm development is again anticipated over the higher terrain of central CO and north-central NM this afternoon. Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies should aid in weak/transient updraft rotation, supporting the potential for isolated severe hail. The airmass across the CO Plains is not expected to be as favorable for storm persistence as the last few days, suggesting the threat for strong gusts is lower. The airmass is a bit more favorable across NM, suggesting a relatively greater chance of a few severe across the NM High Plains. ...WI into Upper MI... Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the secondary cold front advancing eastward across northern/eastern WI and Upper MI. Cooling mid-level temperatures will aid in weak MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly low-level wind profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear, helping to marginalize the overall threat. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas/Virginia... A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for isolated wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening, with tree damage possible. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected across eastern Lower Michigan to the Lower/Middle Ohio Valley, mainly from mid-afternoon through sunset. ...Lower MI into Lower/Mid OH Valley... Recent surface analysis shows a pre-frontal wind shift from central Lower MI southwestward through central IN. The cold front itself is a bit farther west, extending across western Lower MI through far northwest IN and southern IL, although the temperature gradient is a bit diffuse. Additionally, satellite imagery shows a series of gravity waves ahead of the pre-frontal wind shift. These waves have aided in the development of thunderstorms over northern Lower MI and farther south in south-central MI. This complex pattern coupled with cloudiness results in uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution across the region today. The highest severe thunderstorm potential still appears to be across north-central/northeast Lower MI, where recent mesoanalysis places a belt of stronger low-level flow. This is verified by the APX VAD, which has recently sampled 30 to 40 kt between 1 and 2 km. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place over the region, and mesoanalysis already estimates minimal convective inhibition with MLCAPE from 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Some filtered heating is ongoing as well, with instability expected to increase through the early afternoon ahead of the approaching front. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1654, there may be a window of opportunity early afternoon this for supercell development along/ahead of the front, especially across northeast lower MI. Any such development would pose a threat of damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. Otherwise, multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell or two will become increasingly possible into this afternoon, with a primary threat of damaging wind. Farther south, lift along the front combined with mesoscale ascent attendant to the convective cluster currently over far southeast MO should result in afternoon thunderstorm development from southern IL/far western KY into much of IN. Strong buoyancy is expected ahead of the front, but shear will be weaker, with a less organized storm mode anticipated. Even so, given the number of storms anticipated, a few convective clusters capable of damaging gusts are possible. This risk should shift eastward into OH and KY before storm weaken this evening. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... A triplet of MCVs is apparent in recent satellite imagery, with one MCV over southwest KS, another over the far eastern TX Panhandle, and the last over the TX South Plains. Thunderstorm development is possible with each of these features, particularly the one moving eastward out of the eastern TX Panhandle into western/central OK. Storms will likely diurnally increase and intensify this afternoon across much of OK and a large part of north TX. Shear will be weak across much of the region, except near the MCV where some low/mid-level flow enhancement is possible. This could result in a few more organized updrafts across north-central/central OK. Even so, deep-layer flow will remain modest, which is expected to limit the overall severe coverage. ...Colorado/New Mexico... Thunderstorm development is again anticipated over the higher terrain of central CO and north-central NM this afternoon. Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies should aid in weak/transient updraft rotation, supporting the potential for isolated severe hail. The airmass across the CO Plains is not expected to be as favorable for storm persistence as the last few days, suggesting the threat for strong gusts is lower. The airmass is a bit more favorable across NM, suggesting a relatively greater chance of a few severe across the NM High Plains. ...WI into Upper MI... Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the secondary cold front advancing eastward across northern/eastern WI and Upper MI. Cooling mid-level temperatures will aid in weak MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly low-level wind profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear, helping to marginalize the overall threat. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas/Virginia... A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for isolated wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening, with tree damage possible. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected across eastern Lower Michigan to the Lower/Middle Ohio Valley, mainly from mid-afternoon through sunset. ...Lower MI into Lower/Mid OH Valley... Recent surface analysis shows a pre-frontal wind shift from central Lower MI southwestward through central IN. The cold front itself is a bit farther west, extending across western Lower MI through far northwest IN and southern IL, although the temperature gradient is a bit diffuse. Additionally, satellite imagery shows a series of gravity waves ahead of the pre-frontal wind shift. These waves have aided in the development of thunderstorms over northern Lower MI and farther south in south-central MI. This complex pattern coupled with cloudiness results in uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution across the region today. The highest severe thunderstorm potential still appears to be across north-central/northeast Lower MI, where recent mesoanalysis places a belt of stronger low-level flow. This is verified by the APX VAD, which has recently sampled 30 to 40 kt between 1 and 2 km. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place over the region, and mesoanalysis already estimates minimal convective inhibition with MLCAPE from 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Some filtered heating is ongoing as well, with instability expected to increase through the early afternoon ahead of the approaching front. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1654, there may be a window of opportunity early afternoon this for supercell development along/ahead of the front, especially across northeast lower MI. Any such development would pose a threat of damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. Otherwise, multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell or two will become increasingly possible into this afternoon, with a primary threat of damaging wind. Farther south, lift along the front combined with mesoscale ascent attendant to the convective cluster currently over far southeast MO should result in afternoon thunderstorm development from southern IL/far western KY into much of IN. Strong buoyancy is expected ahead of the front, but shear will be weaker, with a less organized storm mode anticipated. Even so, given the number of storms anticipated, a few convective clusters capable of damaging gusts are possible. This risk should shift eastward into OH and KY before storm weaken this evening. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... A triplet of MCVs is apparent in recent satellite imagery, with one MCV over southwest KS, another over the far eastern TX Panhandle, and the last over the TX South Plains. Thunderstorm development is possible with each of these features, particularly the one moving eastward out of the eastern TX Panhandle into western/central OK. Storms will likely diurnally increase and intensify this afternoon across much of OK and a large part of north TX. Shear will be weak across much of the region, except near the MCV where some low/mid-level flow enhancement is possible. This could result in a few more organized updrafts across north-central/central OK. Even so, deep-layer flow will remain modest, which is expected to limit the overall severe coverage. ...Colorado/New Mexico... Thunderstorm development is again anticipated over the higher terrain of central CO and north-central NM this afternoon. Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies should aid in weak/transient updraft rotation, supporting the potential for isolated severe hail. The airmass across the CO Plains is not expected to be as favorable for storm persistence as the last few days, suggesting the threat for strong gusts is lower. The airmass is a bit more favorable across NM, suggesting a relatively greater chance of a few severe across the NM High Plains. ...WI into Upper MI... Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the secondary cold front advancing eastward across northern/eastern WI and Upper MI. Cooling mid-level temperatures will aid in weak MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly low-level wind profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear, helping to marginalize the overall threat. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas/Virginia... A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for isolated wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening, with tree damage possible. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected across eastern Lower Michigan to the Lower/Middle Ohio Valley, mainly from mid-afternoon through sunset. ...Lower MI into Lower/Mid OH Valley... Recent surface analysis shows a pre-frontal wind shift from central Lower MI southwestward through central IN. The cold front itself is a bit farther west, extending across western Lower MI through far northwest IN and southern IL, although the temperature gradient is a bit diffuse. Additionally, satellite imagery shows a series of gravity waves ahead of the pre-frontal wind shift. These waves have aided in the development of thunderstorms over northern Lower MI and farther south in south-central MI. This complex pattern coupled with cloudiness results in uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution across the region today. The highest severe thunderstorm potential still appears to be across north-central/northeast Lower MI, where recent mesoanalysis places a belt of stronger low-level flow. This is verified by the APX VAD, which has recently sampled 30 to 40 kt between 1 and 2 km. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place over the region, and mesoanalysis already estimates minimal convective inhibition with MLCAPE from 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Some filtered heating is ongoing as well, with instability expected to increase through the early afternoon ahead of the approaching front. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1654, there may be a window of opportunity early afternoon this for supercell development along/ahead of the front, especially across northeast lower MI. Any such development would pose a threat of damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. Otherwise, multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell or two will become increasingly possible into this afternoon, with a primary threat of damaging wind. Farther south, lift along the front combined with mesoscale ascent attendant to the convective cluster currently over far southeast MO should result in afternoon thunderstorm development from southern IL/far western KY into much of IN. Strong buoyancy is expected ahead of the front, but shear will be weaker, with a less organized storm mode anticipated. Even so, given the number of storms anticipated, a few convective clusters capable of damaging gusts are possible. This risk should shift eastward into OH and KY before storm weaken this evening. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... A triplet of MCVs is apparent in recent satellite imagery, with one MCV over southwest KS, another over the far eastern TX Panhandle, and the last over the TX South Plains. Thunderstorm development is possible with each of these features, particularly the one moving eastward out of the eastern TX Panhandle into western/central OK. Storms will likely diurnally increase and intensify this afternoon across much of OK and a large part of north TX. Shear will be weak across much of the region, except near the MCV where some low/mid-level flow enhancement is possible. This could result in a few more organized updrafts across north-central/central OK. Even so, deep-layer flow will remain modest, which is expected to limit the overall severe coverage. ...Colorado/New Mexico... Thunderstorm development is again anticipated over the higher terrain of central CO and north-central NM this afternoon. Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies should aid in weak/transient updraft rotation, supporting the potential for isolated severe hail. The airmass across the CO Plains is not expected to be as favorable for storm persistence as the last few days, suggesting the threat for strong gusts is lower. The airmass is a bit more favorable across NM, suggesting a relatively greater chance of a few severe across the NM High Plains. ...WI into Upper MI... Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the secondary cold front advancing eastward across northern/eastern WI and Upper MI. Cooling mid-level temperatures will aid in weak MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly low-level wind profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear, helping to marginalize the overall threat. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas/Virginia... A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for isolated wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening, with tree damage possible. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected across eastern Lower Michigan to the Lower/Middle Ohio Valley, mainly from mid-afternoon through sunset. ...Lower MI into Lower/Mid OH Valley... Recent surface analysis shows a pre-frontal wind shift from central Lower MI southwestward through central IN. The cold front itself is a bit farther west, extending across western Lower MI through far northwest IN and southern IL, although the temperature gradient is a bit diffuse. Additionally, satellite imagery shows a series of gravity waves ahead of the pre-frontal wind shift. These waves have aided in the development of thunderstorms over northern Lower MI and farther south in south-central MI. This complex pattern coupled with cloudiness results in uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution across the region today. The highest severe thunderstorm potential still appears to be across north-central/northeast Lower MI, where recent mesoanalysis places a belt of stronger low-level flow. This is verified by the APX VAD, which has recently sampled 30 to 40 kt between 1 and 2 km. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place over the region, and mesoanalysis already estimates minimal convective inhibition with MLCAPE from 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Some filtered heating is ongoing as well, with instability expected to increase through the early afternoon ahead of the approaching front. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1654, there may be a window of opportunity early afternoon this for supercell development along/ahead of the front, especially across northeast lower MI. Any such development would pose a threat of damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. Otherwise, multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell or two will become increasingly possible into this afternoon, with a primary threat of damaging wind. Farther south, lift along the front combined with mesoscale ascent attendant to the convective cluster currently over far southeast MO should result in afternoon thunderstorm development from southern IL/far western KY into much of IN. Strong buoyancy is expected ahead of the front, but shear will be weaker, with a less organized storm mode anticipated. Even so, given the number of storms anticipated, a few convective clusters capable of damaging gusts are possible. This risk should shift eastward into OH and KY before storm weaken this evening. ...Southern Plains into the Ozarks... A triplet of MCVs is apparent in recent satellite imagery, with one MCV over southwest KS, another over the far eastern TX Panhandle, and the last over the TX South Plains. Thunderstorm development is possible with each of these features, particularly the one moving eastward out of the eastern TX Panhandle into western/central OK. Storms will likely diurnally increase and intensify this afternoon across much of OK and a large part of north TX. Shear will be weak across much of the region, except near the MCV where some low/mid-level flow enhancement is possible. This could result in a few more organized updrafts across north-central/central OK. Even so, deep-layer flow will remain modest, which is expected to limit the overall severe coverage. ...Colorado/New Mexico... Thunderstorm development is again anticipated over the higher terrain of central CO and north-central NM this afternoon. Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies should aid in weak/transient updraft rotation, supporting the potential for isolated severe hail. The airmass across the CO Plains is not expected to be as favorable for storm persistence as the last few days, suggesting the threat for strong gusts is lower. The airmass is a bit more favorable across NM, suggesting a relatively greater chance of a few severe across the NM High Plains. ...WI into Upper MI... Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the secondary cold front advancing eastward across northern/eastern WI and Upper MI. Cooling mid-level temperatures will aid in weak MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly low-level wind profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear, helping to marginalize the overall threat. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas/Virginia... A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for isolated wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening, with tree damage possible. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 07/12/2025 Read more

MD 1654 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF LOWER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 1654 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0906 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Areas affected...Parts of Lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 121406Z - 121630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may increase in coverage later today. DISCUSSION...A convectively enhanced midlevel shortwave trough is moving across the Great Lakes this morning, in advance of a deeper mid/upper-level trough moving from the Dakotas into MN. Morning elevated convection has helped to reinforce an east-west oriented baroclinic zone across central Lower MI, while a cold front is moving eastward across western lower MI. Midlevel lapse rates are weak, but rich low-level moisture is currently supporting MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg, with a further increase expected with time as prefrontal temperatures warm into the 80s F near/south of the baroclinic zone. The KAPX VWP is currently favorable for supercells, with low-level veering with height and 50+ kt of southwesterly midlevel flow. However, wind profiles may tend to become less favorable with time, as low-level flow veers, and wind profiles become more unidirectional. There may be a window of opportunity later this morning into the early afternoon for supercell development along/ahead of the front, especially across northeast lower MI. Any such development would pose a threat of damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. Otherwise, multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell or two will become increasingly possible into this afternoon, with a primary threat of damaging wind. Guidance varies regarding the timing and coverage of storm development along/ahead of the front later today, but watch issuance is possible if trends support an organized severe threat. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 41818556 44058496 44728523 45938412 45738357 45418300 43978265 42668242 42148301 41808347 41778463 41818556 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected across eastern Lower Michigan to the Lower Ohio Valley, mainly from mid-afternoon through sunset. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... An eastward-moving shortwave trough near the Manitoba/Ontario and Minnesota international border vicinity will overspread Lake Superior through late today into this evening while gradually taking on more negative tilt, with a convectively influenced perturbation ahead of it. Associated moderately strong westerlies will be relegated to portions of Wisconsin/Michigan, with sub-25 kt mid-level westerlies generally prevalent southward into the lower/middle Ohio River vicinity. Influenced by the lead shortwave trough, storm redevelopment may occur relatively early today across northern/eastern Lower Michigan, which could include some supercells. Primary storm development along an initial composite cold front/outflow is anticipated by mid to late afternoon from parts of eastern Lower Michigan towards the Wabash/Lower Ohio Valleys. Ample buoyancy (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) will be prevalent ahead of this boundary despite warm mid-level temperatures. Unidirectional southwesterlies and nearly uniform wind speeds through the lower/middle troposphere will limit deep-layer shear and the degree of organized clustering. Still, the setup will be adequate for mainly a scattered damaging wind threat that will subside after sunset with storms lingering across Kentucky/Ohio. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the secondary cold front advancing eastward across northern/eastern Wisconsin and upper Michigan. Cooling mid-level temperatures will aid in weak MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly low-level wind profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear and help to marginalize the overall threat. ...Southern Plains including Oklahoma and North Texas... Today's severe risk will be influenced by multiple slow-east/southeast-moving MCVs that persist this morning across southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle. Storms will likely diurnally increase and intensify this afternoon across much of Oklahoma and a large part of north Texas. A modest MCV-related enhancement to the lower/middle tropospheric wind field may persist today, which could lead to some brief supercell structures and quasi-organized linear structures as mergers become more prevalent. Damaging winds and some hail may occur, and portions of the region will be reevaluated for a possible Slight Risk upgrade should confidence increase in a semi-focused corridor of severe potential this afternoon through early evening. ...Colorado/New Mexico... Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies over the higher terrain should aid in weak/transient updraft rotation as numerous cells develop during the afternoon. Isolated severe hail will be possible regionwide, with isolated severe gusts mainly across interior to southern New Mexico. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas/Virgina... A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for isolated wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening, with tree damage possible. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected across eastern Lower Michigan to the Lower Ohio Valley, mainly from mid-afternoon through sunset. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... An eastward-moving shortwave trough near the Manitoba/Ontario and Minnesota international border vicinity will overspread Lake Superior through late today into this evening while gradually taking on more negative tilt, with a convectively influenced perturbation ahead of it. Associated moderately strong westerlies will be relegated to portions of Wisconsin/Michigan, with sub-25 kt mid-level westerlies generally prevalent southward into the lower/middle Ohio River vicinity. Influenced by the lead shortwave trough, storm redevelopment may occur relatively early today across northern/eastern Lower Michigan, which could include some supercells. Primary storm development along an initial composite cold front/outflow is anticipated by mid to late afternoon from parts of eastern Lower Michigan towards the Wabash/Lower Ohio Valleys. Ample buoyancy (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) will be prevalent ahead of this boundary despite warm mid-level temperatures. Unidirectional southwesterlies and nearly uniform wind speeds through the lower/middle troposphere will limit deep-layer shear and the degree of organized clustering. Still, the setup will be adequate for mainly a scattered damaging wind threat that will subside after sunset with storms lingering across Kentucky/Ohio. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the secondary cold front advancing eastward across northern/eastern Wisconsin and upper Michigan. Cooling mid-level temperatures will aid in weak MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly low-level wind profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear and help to marginalize the overall threat. ...Southern Plains including Oklahoma and North Texas... Today's severe risk will be influenced by multiple slow-east/southeast-moving MCVs that persist this morning across southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle. Storms will likely diurnally increase and intensify this afternoon across much of Oklahoma and a large part of north Texas. A modest MCV-related enhancement to the lower/middle tropospheric wind field may persist today, which could lead to some brief supercell structures and quasi-organized linear structures as mergers become more prevalent. Damaging winds and some hail may occur, and portions of the region will be reevaluated for a possible Slight Risk upgrade should confidence increase in a semi-focused corridor of severe potential this afternoon through early evening. ...Colorado/New Mexico... Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies over the higher terrain should aid in weak/transient updraft rotation as numerous cells develop during the afternoon. Isolated severe hail will be possible regionwide, with isolated severe gusts mainly across interior to southern New Mexico. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas/Virgina... A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for isolated wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening, with tree damage possible. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected across eastern Lower Michigan to the Lower Ohio Valley, mainly from mid-afternoon through sunset. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... An eastward-moving shortwave trough near the Manitoba/Ontario and Minnesota international border vicinity will overspread Lake Superior through late today into this evening while gradually taking on more negative tilt, with a convectively influenced perturbation ahead of it. Associated moderately strong westerlies will be relegated to portions of Wisconsin/Michigan, with sub-25 kt mid-level westerlies generally prevalent southward into the lower/middle Ohio River vicinity. Influenced by the lead shortwave trough, storm redevelopment may occur relatively early today across northern/eastern Lower Michigan, which could include some supercells. Primary storm development along an initial composite cold front/outflow is anticipated by mid to late afternoon from parts of eastern Lower Michigan towards the Wabash/Lower Ohio Valleys. Ample buoyancy (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) will be prevalent ahead of this boundary despite warm mid-level temperatures. Unidirectional southwesterlies and nearly uniform wind speeds through the lower/middle troposphere will limit deep-layer shear and the degree of organized clustering. Still, the setup will be adequate for mainly a scattered damaging wind threat that will subside after sunset with storms lingering across Kentucky/Ohio. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the secondary cold front advancing eastward across northern/eastern Wisconsin and upper Michigan. Cooling mid-level temperatures will aid in weak MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly low-level wind profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear and help to marginalize the overall threat. ...Southern Plains including Oklahoma and North Texas... Today's severe risk will be influenced by multiple slow-east/southeast-moving MCVs that persist this morning across southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle. Storms will likely diurnally increase and intensify this afternoon across much of Oklahoma and a large part of north Texas. A modest MCV-related enhancement to the lower/middle tropospheric wind field may persist today, which could lead to some brief supercell structures and quasi-organized linear structures as mergers become more prevalent. Damaging winds and some hail may occur, and portions of the region will be reevaluated for a possible Slight Risk upgrade should confidence increase in a semi-focused corridor of severe potential this afternoon through early evening. ...Colorado/New Mexico... Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies over the higher terrain should aid in weak/transient updraft rotation as numerous cells develop during the afternoon. Isolated severe hail will be possible regionwide, with isolated severe gusts mainly across interior to southern New Mexico. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas/Virgina... A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for isolated wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening, with tree damage possible. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected across eastern Lower Michigan to the Lower Ohio Valley, mainly from mid-afternoon through sunset. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... An eastward-moving shortwave trough near the Manitoba/Ontario and Minnesota international border vicinity will overspread Lake Superior through late today into this evening while gradually taking on more negative tilt, with a convectively influenced perturbation ahead of it. Associated moderately strong westerlies will be relegated to portions of Wisconsin/Michigan, with sub-25 kt mid-level westerlies generally prevalent southward into the lower/middle Ohio River vicinity. Influenced by the lead shortwave trough, storm redevelopment may occur relatively early today across northern/eastern Lower Michigan, which could include some supercells. Primary storm development along an initial composite cold front/outflow is anticipated by mid to late afternoon from parts of eastern Lower Michigan towards the Wabash/Lower Ohio Valleys. Ample buoyancy (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) will be prevalent ahead of this boundary despite warm mid-level temperatures. Unidirectional southwesterlies and nearly uniform wind speeds through the lower/middle troposphere will limit deep-layer shear and the degree of organized clustering. Still, the setup will be adequate for mainly a scattered damaging wind threat that will subside after sunset with storms lingering across Kentucky/Ohio. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the secondary cold front advancing eastward across northern/eastern Wisconsin and upper Michigan. Cooling mid-level temperatures will aid in weak MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly low-level wind profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear and help to marginalize the overall threat. ...Southern Plains including Oklahoma and North Texas... Today's severe risk will be influenced by multiple slow-east/southeast-moving MCVs that persist this morning across southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle. Storms will likely diurnally increase and intensify this afternoon across much of Oklahoma and a large part of north Texas. A modest MCV-related enhancement to the lower/middle tropospheric wind field may persist today, which could lead to some brief supercell structures and quasi-organized linear structures as mergers become more prevalent. Damaging winds and some hail may occur, and portions of the region will be reevaluated for a possible Slight Risk upgrade should confidence increase in a semi-focused corridor of severe potential this afternoon through early evening. ...Colorado/New Mexico... Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies over the higher terrain should aid in weak/transient updraft rotation as numerous cells develop during the afternoon. Isolated severe hail will be possible regionwide, with isolated severe gusts mainly across interior to southern New Mexico. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas/Virgina... A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for isolated wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening, with tree damage possible. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected across eastern Lower Michigan to the Lower Ohio Valley, mainly from mid-afternoon through sunset. ...Great Lakes/Midwest... An eastward-moving shortwave trough near the Manitoba/Ontario and Minnesota international border vicinity will overspread Lake Superior through late today into this evening while gradually taking on more negative tilt, with a convectively influenced perturbation ahead of it. Associated moderately strong westerlies will be relegated to portions of Wisconsin/Michigan, with sub-25 kt mid-level westerlies generally prevalent southward into the lower/middle Ohio River vicinity. Influenced by the lead shortwave trough, storm redevelopment may occur relatively early today across northern/eastern Lower Michigan, which could include some supercells. Primary storm development along an initial composite cold front/outflow is anticipated by mid to late afternoon from parts of eastern Lower Michigan towards the Wabash/Lower Ohio Valleys. Ample buoyancy (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) will be prevalent ahead of this boundary despite warm mid-level temperatures. Unidirectional southwesterlies and nearly uniform wind speeds through the lower/middle troposphere will limit deep-layer shear and the degree of organized clustering. Still, the setup will be adequate for mainly a scattered damaging wind threat that will subside after sunset with storms lingering across Kentucky/Ohio. Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the secondary cold front advancing eastward across northern/eastern Wisconsin and upper Michigan. Cooling mid-level temperatures will aid in weak MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly low-level wind profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear and help to marginalize the overall threat. ...Southern Plains including Oklahoma and North Texas... Today's severe risk will be influenced by multiple slow-east/southeast-moving MCVs that persist this morning across southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle. Storms will likely diurnally increase and intensify this afternoon across much of Oklahoma and a large part of north Texas. A modest MCV-related enhancement to the lower/middle tropospheric wind field may persist today, which could lead to some brief supercell structures and quasi-organized linear structures as mergers become more prevalent. Damaging winds and some hail may occur, and portions of the region will be reevaluated for a possible Slight Risk upgrade should confidence increase in a semi-focused corridor of severe potential this afternoon through early evening. ...Colorado/New Mexico... Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies over the higher terrain should aid in weak/transient updraft rotation as numerous cells develop during the afternoon. Isolated severe hail will be possible regionwide, with isolated severe gusts mainly across interior to southern New Mexico. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas/Virgina... A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for isolated wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening, with tree damage possible. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 07/12/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Several shortwave impulses are forecast to move through low-amplitude upper troughing over the northern tier of the U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. At the surface, a cold front is expected to develop south/southeast across portions of the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest on Days 4-5/Tue-Wed. Given a moist and unstable airmass ahead of this feature, some severe potential is possible from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest. However, medium range guidance shows large spread in the location and timing of the front and any associated convection, resulting in low predictability. Later in the period, strong upper ridging will develop over the Southeast. Some severe potential could continue eastward across the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic around Days 5-6/Wed-Thu as the aforementioned cold front stalls in response to the building Southeast ridge. However, large-scale ascent and deep-layer flow will remain modest, and any severe potential would likely be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at this time scale. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Several shortwave impulses are forecast to move through low-amplitude upper troughing over the northern tier of the U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. At the surface, a cold front is expected to develop south/southeast across portions of the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest on Days 4-5/Tue-Wed. Given a moist and unstable airmass ahead of this feature, some severe potential is possible from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest. However, medium range guidance shows large spread in the location and timing of the front and any associated convection, resulting in low predictability. Later in the period, strong upper ridging will develop over the Southeast. Some severe potential could continue eastward across the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic around Days 5-6/Wed-Thu as the aforementioned cold front stalls in response to the building Southeast ridge. However, large-scale ascent and deep-layer flow will remain modest, and any severe potential would likely be driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at this time scale. Read more