Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains Monday evening. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A belt of moderate flow aloft will generally extend eastward along U.S./Canadian border on Monday, with weaker flow and higher heights across the remainder of the CONUS. Models do depict a positive-tilt trough dropping south across the Pacific Northwest and into MT, with increasing large-scale ascent favoring increasing rain and thunderstorm chances late. A surface trough will deepen from eastern WA into southern MT and into western SD late Monday, ahead of the elongated west-east oriented cold front. Dewpoints in the 50s F will exist both near and behind the front from central MT into the Dakotas, contributing to MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg. Weak to moderate deep-layer effective shear near the front may yield a few storms capable of severe gusts as activity pushes south into the heated air mass south of the boundary. Otherwise, elevated/marginal hail may occur as well. A nocturnal low-level jet may support strong to locally severe storms into parts of northern MN overnight. Elsewhere, an expansive area of low-level moisture will remain from the Plains to the East coast, beneath generally weak flow aloft. This will support scattered storms, though any severe wind potential should be quite localized. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more

MD 1655 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR IN...WESTERN/CENTRAL OH...NORTHERN/WESTERN KY...SOUTHERN IL...SOUTHEAST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1655 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Areas affected...IN...western/central OH...northern/western KY...southern IL...southeast MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 121642Z - 121915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated to scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A diffuse cold front is currently moving across parts of IL/IN, with evidence of a gravity wave preceding the front from northwest OH into east/central IN. Cumulus is gradually building in the vicinity of this prefrontal feature, with recent storm initiation noted across far northwest OH. With weak midlevel lapse rates in place, initial convection may only gradually intensify. However, rich moisture and MLCAPE increasing into the 1500-2500 J/kg range could eventually support more robust storm development along/ahead of the cold front this afternoon. Deep-layer shear is generally weak, but steepening low-level lapse rates and 20-30 kt of southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer may allow for a few stronger outflow-driven clusters capable of isolated to scattered damaging wind. Farther southwest, a weak storm cluster is ongoing from southeast MO into southern IL. Heating/destabilization ahead of this cluster may allow for some intensification with time, accompanied by a threat for at least isolated damaging winds as it moves generally east-northeastward. Additional strong storms may develop in the wake of this cluster later this afternoon, along the diffuse cold front and any remnant outflow boundaries. Coverage of the organized severe threat across the region remains uncertain, but watch issuance is possible if a corridor of somewhat greater damaging-wind potential becomes apparent. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38048998 39468779 40478619 41658502 41718318 41348203 39998306 38628486 37958616 37208804 36768958 37028995 38048998 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Eastern Montana... Enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow coinciding with the passage of a surface trough and associated tightening pressure gradient will support breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph today across portions of eastern Montana this afternoon. Daytime relative humidity as low as 15 percent combined with the steady northwest wind will present an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the area. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Eastern Montana... Enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow coinciding with the passage of a surface trough and associated tightening pressure gradient will support breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph today across portions of eastern Montana this afternoon. Daytime relative humidity as low as 15 percent combined with the steady northwest wind will present an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the area. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Eastern Montana... Enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow coinciding with the passage of a surface trough and associated tightening pressure gradient will support breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph today across portions of eastern Montana this afternoon. Daytime relative humidity as low as 15 percent combined with the steady northwest wind will present an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the area. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Eastern Montana... Enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow coinciding with the passage of a surface trough and associated tightening pressure gradient will support breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph today across portions of eastern Montana this afternoon. Daytime relative humidity as low as 15 percent combined with the steady northwest wind will present an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the area. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Eastern Montana... Enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow coinciding with the passage of a surface trough and associated tightening pressure gradient will support breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph today across portions of eastern Montana this afternoon. Daytime relative humidity as low as 15 percent combined with the steady northwest wind will present an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the area. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Eastern Montana... Enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow coinciding with the passage of a surface trough and associated tightening pressure gradient will support breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph today across portions of eastern Montana this afternoon. Daytime relative humidity as low as 15 percent combined with the steady northwest wind will present an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the area. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Eastern Montana... Enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow coinciding with the passage of a surface trough and associated tightening pressure gradient will support breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph today across portions of eastern Montana this afternoon. Daytime relative humidity as low as 15 percent combined with the steady northwest wind will present an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the area. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Eastern Montana... Enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow coinciding with the passage of a surface trough and associated tightening pressure gradient will support breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph today across portions of eastern Montana this afternoon. Daytime relative humidity as low as 15 percent combined with the steady northwest wind will present an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the area. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Eastern Montana... Enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow coinciding with the passage of a surface trough and associated tightening pressure gradient will support breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph today across portions of eastern Montana this afternoon. Daytime relative humidity as low as 15 percent combined with the steady northwest wind will present an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the area. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...Eastern Montana... Enhanced northwesterly mid-level flow coinciding with the passage of a surface trough and associated tightening pressure gradient will support breezy northwest winds of 15-25 mph today across portions of eastern Montana this afternoon. Daytime relative humidity as low as 15 percent combined with the steady northwest wind will present an elevated fire weather threat amid dry fuels across the area. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... High pressure across the western US will continue to keep winds mainly light and terrain driven where fuels are the driest Saturday. Moisture will increase across west-central Colorado, with PWs approaching 0.60-0.75". A mix of initially dry/wet thunderstorms will be possible, though the dry thunderstorm risk should remain too localized to include areas with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK...AND ROUGHLY FROM THE OZARKS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms may occur from southeast Missouri into northwest Texas. ...From central VA/NC northward into northern NY... An upper trough will eject northeastward across Quebec, with modest midlevel winds glancing parts of the Northeast. Veering low-level winds will result in a slowing front, and as such a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the lower Great Lakes. Farther south, into central VA/NC, a surface trough will deepen as heating occurs, with weak flow aloft. While low-end in nature, sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out on the local level, from VA/NC northward into NY within the warm sector. Thunderstorm probabilities are high, though little organization is expected. ...Lower OH Valley across the Ozarks and into northern Texas... Early day rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of MO, OK and AR in association with a weak upper trough. Models indicate outflows may stabilize the air mass over parts of the area, but pockets of stronger instability should redevelop. The strongest heating will likely extend from western TX into northwest TX and this should aid sporadic strong cells capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK...AND ROUGHLY FROM THE OZARKS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms may occur from southeast Missouri into northwest Texas. ...From central VA/NC northward into northern NY... An upper trough will eject northeastward across Quebec, with modest midlevel winds glancing parts of the Northeast. Veering low-level winds will result in a slowing front, and as such a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the lower Great Lakes. Farther south, into central VA/NC, a surface trough will deepen as heating occurs, with weak flow aloft. While low-end in nature, sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out on the local level, from VA/NC northward into NY within the warm sector. Thunderstorm probabilities are high, though little organization is expected. ...Lower OH Valley across the Ozarks and into northern Texas... Early day rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of MO, OK and AR in association with a weak upper trough. Models indicate outflows may stabilize the air mass over parts of the area, but pockets of stronger instability should redevelop. The strongest heating will likely extend from western TX into northwest TX and this should aid sporadic strong cells capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK...AND ROUGHLY FROM THE OZARKS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms may occur from southeast Missouri into northwest Texas. ...From central VA/NC northward into northern NY... An upper trough will eject northeastward across Quebec, with modest midlevel winds glancing parts of the Northeast. Veering low-level winds will result in a slowing front, and as such a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the lower Great Lakes. Farther south, into central VA/NC, a surface trough will deepen as heating occurs, with weak flow aloft. While low-end in nature, sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out on the local level, from VA/NC northward into NY within the warm sector. Thunderstorm probabilities are high, though little organization is expected. ...Lower OH Valley across the Ozarks and into northern Texas... Early day rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of MO, OK and AR in association with a weak upper trough. Models indicate outflows may stabilize the air mass over parts of the area, but pockets of stronger instability should redevelop. The strongest heating will likely extend from western TX into northwest TX and this should aid sporadic strong cells capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK...AND ROUGHLY FROM THE OZARKS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms may occur from southeast Missouri into northwest Texas. ...From central VA/NC northward into northern NY... An upper trough will eject northeastward across Quebec, with modest midlevel winds glancing parts of the Northeast. Veering low-level winds will result in a slowing front, and as such a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the lower Great Lakes. Farther south, into central VA/NC, a surface trough will deepen as heating occurs, with weak flow aloft. While low-end in nature, sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out on the local level, from VA/NC northward into NY within the warm sector. Thunderstorm probabilities are high, though little organization is expected. ...Lower OH Valley across the Ozarks and into northern Texas... Early day rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of MO, OK and AR in association with a weak upper trough. Models indicate outflows may stabilize the air mass over parts of the area, but pockets of stronger instability should redevelop. The strongest heating will likely extend from western TX into northwest TX and this should aid sporadic strong cells capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK...AND ROUGHLY FROM THE OZARKS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms may occur from southeast Missouri into northwest Texas. ...From central VA/NC northward into northern NY... An upper trough will eject northeastward across Quebec, with modest midlevel winds glancing parts of the Northeast. Veering low-level winds will result in a slowing front, and as such a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the lower Great Lakes. Farther south, into central VA/NC, a surface trough will deepen as heating occurs, with weak flow aloft. While low-end in nature, sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out on the local level, from VA/NC northward into NY within the warm sector. Thunderstorm probabilities are high, though little organization is expected. ...Lower OH Valley across the Ozarks and into northern Texas... Early day rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of MO, OK and AR in association with a weak upper trough. Models indicate outflows may stabilize the air mass over parts of the area, but pockets of stronger instability should redevelop. The strongest heating will likely extend from western TX into northwest TX and this should aid sporadic strong cells capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK...AND ROUGHLY FROM THE OZARKS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms may occur from southeast Missouri into northwest Texas. ...From central VA/NC northward into northern NY... An upper trough will eject northeastward across Quebec, with modest midlevel winds glancing parts of the Northeast. Veering low-level winds will result in a slowing front, and as such a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the lower Great Lakes. Farther south, into central VA/NC, a surface trough will deepen as heating occurs, with weak flow aloft. While low-end in nature, sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out on the local level, from VA/NC northward into NY within the warm sector. Thunderstorm probabilities are high, though little organization is expected. ...Lower OH Valley across the Ozarks and into northern Texas... Early day rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of MO, OK and AR in association with a weak upper trough. Models indicate outflows may stabilize the air mass over parts of the area, but pockets of stronger instability should redevelop. The strongest heating will likely extend from western TX into northwest TX and this should aid sporadic strong cells capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK...AND ROUGHLY FROM THE OZARKS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms may occur from southeast Missouri into northwest Texas. ...From central VA/NC northward into northern NY... An upper trough will eject northeastward across Quebec, with modest midlevel winds glancing parts of the Northeast. Veering low-level winds will result in a slowing front, and as such a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the lower Great Lakes. Farther south, into central VA/NC, a surface trough will deepen as heating occurs, with weak flow aloft. While low-end in nature, sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out on the local level, from VA/NC northward into NY within the warm sector. Thunderstorm probabilities are high, though little organization is expected. ...Lower OH Valley across the Ozarks and into northern Texas... Early day rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of MO, OK and AR in association with a weak upper trough. Models indicate outflows may stabilize the air mass over parts of the area, but pockets of stronger instability should redevelop. The strongest heating will likely extend from western TX into northwest TX and this should aid sporadic strong cells capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK...AND ROUGHLY FROM THE OZARKS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms may occur from southeast Missouri into northwest Texas. ...From central VA/NC northward into northern NY... An upper trough will eject northeastward across Quebec, with modest midlevel winds glancing parts of the Northeast. Veering low-level winds will result in a slowing front, and as such a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the lower Great Lakes. Farther south, into central VA/NC, a surface trough will deepen as heating occurs, with weak flow aloft. While low-end in nature, sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out on the local level, from VA/NC northward into NY within the warm sector. Thunderstorm probabilities are high, though little organization is expected. ...Lower OH Valley across the Ozarks and into northern Texas... Early day rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of MO, OK and AR in association with a weak upper trough. Models indicate outflows may stabilize the air mass over parts of the area, but pockets of stronger instability should redevelop. The strongest heating will likely extend from western TX into northwest TX and this should aid sporadic strong cells capable of locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 07/12/2025 Read more