Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Winds across the Pacific Northwest will increase again on D2/Monday as a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies moves out of British Columbia along with a south-southeastward moving cold front. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and further east in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent in these regions. A few hours of locally Critical conditions will be possible across the Snake River Plain, however, limited coverage precludes introduction of a Critical area. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Winds across the Pacific Northwest will increase again on D2/Monday as a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies moves out of British Columbia along with a south-southeastward moving cold front. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and further east in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent in these regions. A few hours of locally Critical conditions will be possible across the Snake River Plain, however, limited coverage precludes introduction of a Critical area. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Winds across the Pacific Northwest will increase again on D2/Monday as a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies moves out of British Columbia along with a south-southeastward moving cold front. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and further east in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent in these regions. A few hours of locally Critical conditions will be possible across the Snake River Plain, however, limited coverage precludes introduction of a Critical area. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will begin to traverse the northern periphery of the western ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly flow across the Cascades in central Washington and northern Oregon. Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across the Cascade Gaps and into the Columbia Basin, where relative humidity reductions around 20 percent will overlap winds sustained 10-15 mph (locally higher). An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support potential for increased fire spread potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in Northern Arizona today. Moisture banked across the Mogollon Rim becomes less with northern extent, where PWs drop to around 0.25-0.50". Storm motions will be around 10-20 mph, but coverage should allow multiple rounds of storms. However, outside of heavier cores and where less coverage is expected across the western rim, there could be a few instances of dry lightning. Overall, the small coverage of this risk does not warrant inclusion of an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will begin to traverse the northern periphery of the western ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly flow across the Cascades in central Washington and northern Oregon. Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across the Cascade Gaps and into the Columbia Basin, where relative humidity reductions around 20 percent will overlap winds sustained 10-15 mph (locally higher). An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support potential for increased fire spread potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in Northern Arizona today. Moisture banked across the Mogollon Rim becomes less with northern extent, where PWs drop to around 0.25-0.50". Storm motions will be around 10-20 mph, but coverage should allow multiple rounds of storms. However, outside of heavier cores and where less coverage is expected across the western rim, there could be a few instances of dry lightning. Overall, the small coverage of this risk does not warrant inclusion of an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will begin to traverse the northern periphery of the western ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly flow across the Cascades in central Washington and northern Oregon. Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across the Cascade Gaps and into the Columbia Basin, where relative humidity reductions around 20 percent will overlap winds sustained 10-15 mph (locally higher). An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support potential for increased fire spread potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in Northern Arizona today. Moisture banked across the Mogollon Rim becomes less with northern extent, where PWs drop to around 0.25-0.50". Storm motions will be around 10-20 mph, but coverage should allow multiple rounds of storms. However, outside of heavier cores and where less coverage is expected across the western rim, there could be a few instances of dry lightning. Overall, the small coverage of this risk does not warrant inclusion of an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will begin to traverse the northern periphery of the western ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly flow across the Cascades in central Washington and northern Oregon. Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across the Cascade Gaps and into the Columbia Basin, where relative humidity reductions around 20 percent will overlap winds sustained 10-15 mph (locally higher). An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support potential for increased fire spread potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in Northern Arizona today. Moisture banked across the Mogollon Rim becomes less with northern extent, where PWs drop to around 0.25-0.50". Storm motions will be around 10-20 mph, but coverage should allow multiple rounds of storms. However, outside of heavier cores and where less coverage is expected across the western rim, there could be a few instances of dry lightning. Overall, the small coverage of this risk does not warrant inclusion of an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level wave will begin to traverse the northern periphery of the western ridge today, bringing an increase in westerly flow across the Cascades in central Washington and northern Oregon. Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across the Cascade Gaps and into the Columbia Basin, where relative humidity reductions around 20 percent will overlap winds sustained 10-15 mph (locally higher). An Elevated was maintained with this outlook to support potential for increased fire spread potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will be possible in Northern Arizona today. Moisture banked across the Mogollon Rim becomes less with northern extent, where PWs drop to around 0.25-0.50". Storm motions will be around 10-20 mph, but coverage should allow multiple rounds of storms. However, outside of heavier cores and where less coverage is expected across the western rim, there could be a few instances of dry lightning. Overall, the small coverage of this risk does not warrant inclusion of an area at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible, mainly through late evening, across parts of the Southwest and South-Central States. ...TX Trans-Pecos to southern CO... An isolated severe wind/hail threat should persist for a few more hours with widely scattered convection largely remaining tied to the higher terrain of south-central CO and northeast to south-central NM. With only a modest combination of buoyancy and deep-layer shear and lack of larger-scale ascent, severe potential will diminish after dusk. ...AR to the Edwards Plateau of TX... Numerous slow-moving clusters and cells are prevalent ahead of multiple MCVs. With weak deep-layer shear and around 2 inch PW values, as sampled by the 00Z FWD sounding, heavy rain will remain the primary convective threat. Moderate buoyancy will linger for a couple more hours to support a localized wet microburst/strong gust threat. Recent HRRR/RRFS runs suggest that overnight convective development may focus to the southwest of the Concho Valley MCV over the Edwards Plateau. This could yield an isolated severe hail threat in initial development, followed by locally strong downbursts as storms mature. Both of these risks should be secondary to the heavy rain/flash flooding potential (see 01Z WPC ERO with MDT risk). ...TN/OH Valleys to the Piedmont... Locally strong gusts could persist for another hour or two before disorganized convection further subsides. ..Grams.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible, mainly through late evening, across parts of the Southwest and South-Central States. ...TX Trans-Pecos to southern CO... An isolated severe wind/hail threat should persist for a few more hours with widely scattered convection largely remaining tied to the higher terrain of south-central CO and northeast to south-central NM. With only a modest combination of buoyancy and deep-layer shear and lack of larger-scale ascent, severe potential will diminish after dusk. ...AR to the Edwards Plateau of TX... Numerous slow-moving clusters and cells are prevalent ahead of multiple MCVs. With weak deep-layer shear and around 2 inch PW values, as sampled by the 00Z FWD sounding, heavy rain will remain the primary convective threat. Moderate buoyancy will linger for a couple more hours to support a localized wet microburst/strong gust threat. Recent HRRR/RRFS runs suggest that overnight convective development may focus to the southwest of the Concho Valley MCV over the Edwards Plateau. This could yield an isolated severe hail threat in initial development, followed by locally strong downbursts as storms mature. Both of these risks should be secondary to the heavy rain/flash flooding potential (see 01Z WPC ERO with MDT risk). ...TN/OH Valleys to the Piedmont... Locally strong gusts could persist for another hour or two before disorganized convection further subsides. ..Grams.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible, mainly through late evening, across parts of the Southwest and South-Central States. ...TX Trans-Pecos to southern CO... An isolated severe wind/hail threat should persist for a few more hours with widely scattered convection largely remaining tied to the higher terrain of south-central CO and northeast to south-central NM. With only a modest combination of buoyancy and deep-layer shear and lack of larger-scale ascent, severe potential will diminish after dusk. ...AR to the Edwards Plateau of TX... Numerous slow-moving clusters and cells are prevalent ahead of multiple MCVs. With weak deep-layer shear and around 2 inch PW values, as sampled by the 00Z FWD sounding, heavy rain will remain the primary convective threat. Moderate buoyancy will linger for a couple more hours to support a localized wet microburst/strong gust threat. Recent HRRR/RRFS runs suggest that overnight convective development may focus to the southwest of the Concho Valley MCV over the Edwards Plateau. This could yield an isolated severe hail threat in initial development, followed by locally strong downbursts as storms mature. Both of these risks should be secondary to the heavy rain/flash flooding potential (see 01Z WPC ERO with MDT risk). ...TN/OH Valleys to the Piedmont... Locally strong gusts could persist for another hour or two before disorganized convection further subsides. ..Grams.. 07/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible, mainly through late evening, across parts of the Southwest and South-Central States. ...TX Trans-Pecos to southern CO... An isolated severe wind/hail threat should persist for a few more hours with widely scattered convection largely remaining tied to the higher terrain of south-central CO and northeast to south-central NM. With only a modest combination of buoyancy and deep-layer shear and lack of larger-scale ascent, severe potential will diminish after dusk. ...AR to the Edwards Plateau of TX... Numerous slow-moving clusters and cells are prevalent ahead of multiple MCVs. With weak deep-layer shear and around 2 inch PW values, as sampled by the 00Z FWD sounding, heavy rain will remain the primary convective threat. Moderate buoyancy will linger for a couple more hours to support a localized wet microburst/strong gust threat. Recent HRRR/RRFS runs suggest that overnight convective development may focus to the southwest of the Concho Valley MCV over the Edwards Plateau. This could yield an isolated severe hail threat in initial development, followed by locally strong downbursts as storms mature. Both of these risks should be secondary to the heavy rain/flash flooding potential (see 01Z WPC ERO with MDT risk). ...TN/OH Valleys to the Piedmont... Locally strong gusts could persist for another hour or two before disorganized convection further subsides. ..Grams.. 07/13/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jul 12 22:24:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jul 12 22:24:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough descending southeastward from British Columbia will bring increasing fire weather concerns to portions of the Northwestern U.S. and Great Basin early next week. Accelerating winds ahead a strong cold front, low daytime relative humidity and dry fuels will increase wildfire spread potential across the Columbia Basin and Snake River Plain on Day 3/Monday, with overall fire weather threat shifting into the Great Basin by Day 4/Tuesday. The resulting back door cold front and north-northeast pressure gradient could also bring a period of weak offshore flow to the coastal ranges of OR Day 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday, but some lingering model uncertainty in wind magnitude precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. Farther east, wetting rains and cooler temperatures associated with the trough and cold front should mitigate fire weather concerns across much of Montana Day 4/Tuesday. ...Day 6-8/Thursday-Saturday... A mid-level low near Baja California along with a general rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. could aid in ushering in deeper monsoon moisture into portions of the Southwest and Great Basin for the latter portion of the week. Considerable ensemble spread in moisture plume evolution limits confidence in isolating dry thunderstorm threat for now. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough descending southeastward from British Columbia will bring increasing fire weather concerns to portions of the Northwestern U.S. and Great Basin early next week. Accelerating winds ahead a strong cold front, low daytime relative humidity and dry fuels will increase wildfire spread potential across the Columbia Basin and Snake River Plain on Day 3/Monday, with overall fire weather threat shifting into the Great Basin by Day 4/Tuesday. The resulting back door cold front and north-northeast pressure gradient could also bring a period of weak offshore flow to the coastal ranges of OR Day 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday, but some lingering model uncertainty in wind magnitude precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. Farther east, wetting rains and cooler temperatures associated with the trough and cold front should mitigate fire weather concerns across much of Montana Day 4/Tuesday. ...Day 6-8/Thursday-Saturday... A mid-level low near Baja California along with a general rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. could aid in ushering in deeper monsoon moisture into portions of the Southwest and Great Basin for the latter portion of the week. Considerable ensemble spread in moisture plume evolution limits confidence in isolating dry thunderstorm threat for now. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough descending southeastward from British Columbia will bring increasing fire weather concerns to portions of the Northwestern U.S. and Great Basin early next week. Accelerating winds ahead a strong cold front, low daytime relative humidity and dry fuels will increase wildfire spread potential across the Columbia Basin and Snake River Plain on Day 3/Monday, with overall fire weather threat shifting into the Great Basin by Day 4/Tuesday. The resulting back door cold front and north-northeast pressure gradient could also bring a period of weak offshore flow to the coastal ranges of OR Day 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday, but some lingering model uncertainty in wind magnitude precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. Farther east, wetting rains and cooler temperatures associated with the trough and cold front should mitigate fire weather concerns across much of Montana Day 4/Tuesday. ...Day 6-8/Thursday-Saturday... A mid-level low near Baja California along with a general rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. could aid in ushering in deeper monsoon moisture into portions of the Southwest and Great Basin for the latter portion of the week. Considerable ensemble spread in moisture plume evolution limits confidence in isolating dry thunderstorm threat for now. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough descending southeastward from British Columbia will bring increasing fire weather concerns to portions of the Northwestern U.S. and Great Basin early next week. Accelerating winds ahead a strong cold front, low daytime relative humidity and dry fuels will increase wildfire spread potential across the Columbia Basin and Snake River Plain on Day 3/Monday, with overall fire weather threat shifting into the Great Basin by Day 4/Tuesday. The resulting back door cold front and north-northeast pressure gradient could also bring a period of weak offshore flow to the coastal ranges of OR Day 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday, but some lingering model uncertainty in wind magnitude precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. Farther east, wetting rains and cooler temperatures associated with the trough and cold front should mitigate fire weather concerns across much of Montana Day 4/Tuesday. ...Day 6-8/Thursday-Saturday... A mid-level low near Baja California along with a general rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. could aid in ushering in deeper monsoon moisture into portions of the Southwest and Great Basin for the latter portion of the week. Considerable ensemble spread in moisture plume evolution limits confidence in isolating dry thunderstorm threat for now. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough descending southeastward from British Columbia will bring increasing fire weather concerns to portions of the Northwestern U.S. and Great Basin early next week. Accelerating winds ahead a strong cold front, low daytime relative humidity and dry fuels will increase wildfire spread potential across the Columbia Basin and Snake River Plain on Day 3/Monday, with overall fire weather threat shifting into the Great Basin by Day 4/Tuesday. The resulting back door cold front and north-northeast pressure gradient could also bring a period of weak offshore flow to the coastal ranges of OR Day 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday, but some lingering model uncertainty in wind magnitude precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. Farther east, wetting rains and cooler temperatures associated with the trough and cold front should mitigate fire weather concerns across much of Montana Day 4/Tuesday. ...Day 6-8/Thursday-Saturday... A mid-level low near Baja California along with a general rebuilding of the ridge across the Western U.S. could aid in ushering in deeper monsoon moisture into portions of the Southwest and Great Basin for the latter portion of the week. Considerable ensemble spread in moisture plume evolution limits confidence in isolating dry thunderstorm threat for now. ..Williams.. 07/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1658 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN IN...SOUTHWEST OH...NORTHERN/WESTERN KY...FAR SOUTHERN IL/SOUTHEAST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1658 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Areas affected...Parts of southern IN...southwest OH...northern/western KY...far southern IL/southeast MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122029Z - 122200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind will remain possible through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...A compact storm cluster is moving quickly eastward across southern IN and adjacent western KY late this afternoon. While convection associated with this cluster is not particularly well-organized, it has a history of producing localized near-severe gusts, and also has a relatively strong cold pool. Strong downstream heating has resulted in MLCAPE increasing above 2500 J/kg and steepening low-level lapse rates. Deep-layer shear is weak, but given the favorable buoyancy and presence of a propagating cold pool, some threat for isolated damaging wind may accompany this storm cluster as it continues to move eastward. Other strong storms are ongoing across parts of western/central OH, and also along the trailing outflow into far western KY into southern IL and southeast MO. These storms will be capable of producing localized damaging downburst winds, given favorable buoyancy and large PW. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 38638657 40088580 40598312 40288187 39688168 37948421 37718455 36868739 36818938 37018986 37378996 37488855 37668728 38038673 38638657 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more