Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Columbia Basin... Increasing mid-level flow associated with a mid-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest along with a tightening onshore surface pressure gradient will support enhanced downslope winds into the Columbia Basin Monday. Minimum daytime relative humidity of 15-20 percent combined with west winds initially of around 15 mph will promote a broad elevated fire weather concern for the Columbia Basin. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. Critical highlights were added to address this threat across central Washington. ...Northern Great Basin... Mid-level Pacific moisture along with increasing daytime instability over a very dry sub-cloud layer will support isolated dry thunderstorm development primarily over the higher terrain of northeastern CA and along the northern NV border Monday afternoon. Dry fuels will support new ignitions from thunderstorms with minimal rainfall, prompting addition of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Pacific Northwest will increase again on D2/Monday as a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies moves out of British Columbia along with a south-southeastward moving cold front. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and further east in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent in these regions. A few hours of locally Critical conditions will be possible across the Snake River Plain, however, limited coverage precludes introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Columbia Basin... Increasing mid-level flow associated with a mid-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest along with a tightening onshore surface pressure gradient will support enhanced downslope winds into the Columbia Basin Monday. Minimum daytime relative humidity of 15-20 percent combined with west winds initially of around 15 mph will promote a broad elevated fire weather concern for the Columbia Basin. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. Critical highlights were added to address this threat across central Washington. ...Northern Great Basin... Mid-level Pacific moisture along with increasing daytime instability over a very dry sub-cloud layer will support isolated dry thunderstorm development primarily over the higher terrain of northeastern CA and along the northern NV border Monday afternoon. Dry fuels will support new ignitions from thunderstorms with minimal rainfall, prompting addition of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Pacific Northwest will increase again on D2/Monday as a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies moves out of British Columbia along with a south-southeastward moving cold front. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and further east in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent in these regions. A few hours of locally Critical conditions will be possible across the Snake River Plain, however, limited coverage precludes introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Columbia Basin... Increasing mid-level flow associated with a mid-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest along with a tightening onshore surface pressure gradient will support enhanced downslope winds into the Columbia Basin Monday. Minimum daytime relative humidity of 15-20 percent combined with west winds initially of around 15 mph will promote a broad elevated fire weather concern for the Columbia Basin. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. Critical highlights were added to address this threat across central Washington. ...Northern Great Basin... Mid-level Pacific moisture along with increasing daytime instability over a very dry sub-cloud layer will support isolated dry thunderstorm development primarily over the higher terrain of northeastern CA and along the northern NV border Monday afternoon. Dry fuels will support new ignitions from thunderstorms with minimal rainfall, prompting addition of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Pacific Northwest will increase again on D2/Monday as a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies moves out of British Columbia along with a south-southeastward moving cold front. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and further east in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent in these regions. A few hours of locally Critical conditions will be possible across the Snake River Plain, however, limited coverage precludes introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Columbia Basin... Increasing mid-level flow associated with a mid-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest along with a tightening onshore surface pressure gradient will support enhanced downslope winds into the Columbia Basin Monday. Minimum daytime relative humidity of 15-20 percent combined with west winds initially of around 15 mph will promote a broad elevated fire weather concern for the Columbia Basin. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. Critical highlights were added to address this threat across central Washington. ...Northern Great Basin... Mid-level Pacific moisture along with increasing daytime instability over a very dry sub-cloud layer will support isolated dry thunderstorm development primarily over the higher terrain of northeastern CA and along the northern NV border Monday afternoon. Dry fuels will support new ignitions from thunderstorms with minimal rainfall, prompting addition of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Pacific Northwest will increase again on D2/Monday as a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies moves out of British Columbia along with a south-southeastward moving cold front. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and further east in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent in these regions. A few hours of locally Critical conditions will be possible across the Snake River Plain, however, limited coverage precludes introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Columbia Basin... Increasing mid-level flow associated with a mid-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest along with a tightening onshore surface pressure gradient will support enhanced downslope winds into the Columbia Basin Monday. Minimum daytime relative humidity of 15-20 percent combined with west winds initially of around 15 mph will promote a broad elevated fire weather concern for the Columbia Basin. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. Critical highlights were added to address this threat across central Washington. ...Northern Great Basin... Mid-level Pacific moisture along with increasing daytime instability over a very dry sub-cloud layer will support isolated dry thunderstorm development primarily over the higher terrain of northeastern CA and along the northern NV border Monday afternoon. Dry fuels will support new ignitions from thunderstorms with minimal rainfall, prompting addition of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Pacific Northwest will increase again on D2/Monday as a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies moves out of British Columbia along with a south-southeastward moving cold front. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and further east in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent in these regions. A few hours of locally Critical conditions will be possible across the Snake River Plain, however, limited coverage precludes introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Columbia Basin... Increasing mid-level flow associated with a mid-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest along with a tightening onshore surface pressure gradient will support enhanced downslope winds into the Columbia Basin Monday. Minimum daytime relative humidity of 15-20 percent combined with west winds initially of around 15 mph will promote a broad elevated fire weather concern for the Columbia Basin. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. Critical highlights were added to address this threat across central Washington. ...Northern Great Basin... Mid-level Pacific moisture along with increasing daytime instability over a very dry sub-cloud layer will support isolated dry thunderstorm development primarily over the higher terrain of northeastern CA and along the northern NV border Monday afternoon. Dry fuels will support new ignitions from thunderstorms with minimal rainfall, prompting addition of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Pacific Northwest will increase again on D2/Monday as a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies moves out of British Columbia along with a south-southeastward moving cold front. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and further east in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent in these regions. A few hours of locally Critical conditions will be possible across the Snake River Plain, however, limited coverage precludes introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Columbia Basin... Increasing mid-level flow associated with a mid-level trough entering the Pacific Northwest along with a tightening onshore surface pressure gradient will support enhanced downslope winds into the Columbia Basin Monday. Minimum daytime relative humidity of 15-20 percent combined with west winds initially of around 15 mph will promote a broad elevated fire weather concern for the Columbia Basin. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. Critical highlights were added to address this threat across central Washington. ...Northern Great Basin... Mid-level Pacific moisture along with increasing daytime instability over a very dry sub-cloud layer will support isolated dry thunderstorm development primarily over the higher terrain of northeastern CA and along the northern NV border Monday afternoon. Dry fuels will support new ignitions from thunderstorms with minimal rainfall, prompting addition of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Williams.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Winds across the Pacific Northwest will increase again on D2/Monday as a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies moves out of British Columbia along with a south-southeastward moving cold front. Elevated fire weather concerns will continue across the Cascades into the Columbia River Basin and further east in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. Winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent in these regions. A few hours of locally Critical conditions will be possible across the Snake River Plain, however, limited coverage precludes introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...20Z Update... Adjustments were made to the general thunderstorm area based on current observations. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. See the previous forecast for additional details. ..Wendt.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such, water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently, there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely. ...Southwest... Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and then progress southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas... Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward. However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO. Both of these features are expected to progress eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected. Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster. ...Lower MS Valley... A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist (i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any outflow boundaries. ...Florida... A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...20Z Update... Adjustments were made to the general thunderstorm area based on current observations. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. See the previous forecast for additional details. ..Wendt.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such, water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently, there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely. ...Southwest... Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and then progress southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas... Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward. However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO. Both of these features are expected to progress eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected. Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster. ...Lower MS Valley... A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist (i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any outflow boundaries. ...Florida... A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...20Z Update... Adjustments were made to the general thunderstorm area based on current observations. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. See the previous forecast for additional details. ..Wendt.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such, water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently, there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely. ...Southwest... Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and then progress southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas... Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward. However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO. Both of these features are expected to progress eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected. Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster. ...Lower MS Valley... A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist (i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any outflow boundaries. ...Florida... A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...20Z Update... Adjustments were made to the general thunderstorm area based on current observations. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. See the previous forecast for additional details. ..Wendt.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such, water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently, there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely. ...Southwest... Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and then progress southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas... Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward. However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO. Both of these features are expected to progress eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected. Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster. ...Lower MS Valley... A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist (i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any outflow boundaries. ...Florida... A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...20Z Update... Adjustments were made to the general thunderstorm area based on current observations. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. See the previous forecast for additional details. ..Wendt.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such, water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently, there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely. ...Southwest... Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and then progress southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas... Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward. However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO. Both of these features are expected to progress eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected. Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster. ...Lower MS Valley... A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist (i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any outflow boundaries. ...Florida... A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...20Z Update... Adjustments were made to the general thunderstorm area based on current observations. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. See the previous forecast for additional details. ..Wendt.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such, water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently, there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely. ...Southwest... Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and then progress southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas... Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward. However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO. Both of these features are expected to progress eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected. Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster. ...Lower MS Valley... A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist (i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any outflow boundaries. ...Florida... A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...20Z Update... Adjustments were made to the general thunderstorm area based on current observations. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. See the previous forecast for additional details. ..Wendt.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such, water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently, there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely. ...Southwest... Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and then progress southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas... Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward. However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO. Both of these features are expected to progress eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected. Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster. ...Lower MS Valley... A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist (i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any outflow boundaries. ...Florida... A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...20Z Update... Adjustments were made to the general thunderstorm area based on current observations. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. See the previous forecast for additional details. ..Wendt.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such, water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently, there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely. ...Southwest... Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and then progress southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas... Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward. However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO. Both of these features are expected to progress eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected. Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster. ...Lower MS Valley... A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist (i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any outflow boundaries. ...Florida... A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...20Z Update... Adjustments were made to the general thunderstorm area based on current observations. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. See the previous forecast for additional details. ..Wendt.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such, water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently, there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely. ...Southwest... Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and then progress southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas... Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward. However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO. Both of these features are expected to progress eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected. Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster. ...Lower MS Valley... A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist (i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any outflow boundaries. ...Florida... A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...20Z Update... Adjustments were made to the general thunderstorm area based on current observations. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. See the previous forecast for additional details. ..Wendt.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such, water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently, there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely. ...Southwest... Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and then progress southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas... Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward. However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO. Both of these features are expected to progress eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected. Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster. ...Lower MS Valley... A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist (i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any outflow boundaries. ...Florida... A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...20Z Update... Adjustments were made to the general thunderstorm area based on current observations. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. See the previous forecast for additional details. ..Wendt.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such, water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently, there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely. ...Southwest... Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and then progress southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas... Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward. However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO. Both of these features are expected to progress eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected. Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster. ...Lower MS Valley... A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist (i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any outflow boundaries. ...Florida... A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...20Z Update... Adjustments were made to the general thunderstorm area based on current observations. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. See the previous forecast for additional details. ..Wendt.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such, water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently, there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely. ...Southwest... Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and then progress southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas... Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward. However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO. Both of these features are expected to progress eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected. Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster. ...Lower MS Valley... A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist (i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any outflow boundaries. ...Florida... A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest, south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida. ...20Z Update... Adjustments were made to the general thunderstorm area based on current observations. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. See the previous forecast for additional details. ..Wendt.. 07/13/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025/ ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States... Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such, water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently, there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely. ...Southwest... Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to develop off the higher terrain and then progress southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass. ...Upper Midwest... Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset. ...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas... Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward. However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley... A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO. Both of these features are expected to progress eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected. Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster. ...Lower MS Valley... A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist (i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any outflow boundaries. ...Florida... A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest (i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening. Read more