Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Central/Northern Plains to the upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to eject eastward with several weaker leading disturbances located across the northern Rockies Tuesday. Coincident with increasing mid/upper westerly flow, height falls and weak ascent will support the development of a surface low over western SD. This low will move into southern MN by Wednesday morning, while a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN. South of the front and surface low, a seasonably warm/humid air mass will be in place near the triple point across NE and eastern SD, extending northward along the front into the upper Midwest. Moderate to strong destabilization (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE), and ascent from the approaching upper troughs will promote scattered strong to severe storms by the afternoon. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and hail. A fairly quick transition to upscale growth is likely Tuesday evening given the large buoyancy and weaker low-level flow allowing for consolidation of outflow. Most CAM solutions show eventual MCS development across central/southeast NE into the overnight hours. Aided by a 40+ kt southerly low-level jet, this MCS could continue into parts of western IA and northern KS with a risk for damaging gusts through 12z. Farther northeast along the front, veered low-level flow and largely unidirectional wind profiles should favor a predominately linear storm mode. One or more clusters may emerge primarily with a risk for damaging gusts and hail as they moving from MN to northern WI and western upper MI by Tuesday evening. Locally stronger flow aloft and near the front could also support a brief tornado or two. Isolated hail and damaging gusts will also be possible in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across northern and eastern WY into western SD. Enhanced mid-level flow and 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE could support a few supercells or stronger clusters near and along the front. ...Eastern Great Basin... As the cold front gradually moves south, it should begin to stall across the northern Great basin Tuesday afternoon. As forcing for ascent from the upper trough interacts with strong diurnal heating, scattered thunderstorm are expected along the front and adjacent higher terrain from northeast NV, through northern UT and into southwestern WY. Weak to moderate SBCAPE atop deep inverted-V structures will favor strong downdrafts with these high-based storms. Damaging gust potential will be maximized along the front where locally stronger convergence and deep-layer shear should support a larger concentration and greater persistence of strong/occasionally severe storm clusters. ...Mid MS Valley... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain likely with several convectively augmented vort maxima/MCVs currently observed across central/northeast TX. While less defined than previous guidance cycles, locally stronger forcing for ascent and enhanced low/mid-level flow could support one or more clusters of strong to occasional severe storm Tuesday afternoon across the Mid MS Valley. These clusters will develop within a very warm/unstable air mass with the potential for occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. As mentioned in the prior outlook, confidence in the ultimate location of theses features as well as the resulting storm coverage/intensity remains too low to introduce higher severe probabilities. ...Southern AZ... Weak easterly flow and seasonably high monsoon moisture south of the upper ridge are expected to support scattered thunderstorms across parts of southern AZ Tuesday afternoon and evening. While steering flow is not overly strong, some enhancement of the mid-level easterlies could promote slightly more organized storm clusters capable of damaging gusts given the deeply mixed PBL. ...Southeast and FL... A weak tropical wave will likely serve as a focus for numerous thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night across parts of FL and the Gulf Coast. A warm, unstable and humid air mass will support numerous thunderstorm clusters over a broad area capable of sporadic damaging downbursts through much of the day. Locally higher severe probabilities will be greatest along sea breeze boundaries and near the upper vort max. However, confidence in more than occasional severe potential is low. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Central/Northern Plains to the upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to eject eastward with several weaker leading disturbances located across the northern Rockies Tuesday. Coincident with increasing mid/upper westerly flow, height falls and weak ascent will support the development of a surface low over western SD. This low will move into southern MN by Wednesday morning, while a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN. South of the front and surface low, a seasonably warm/humid air mass will be in place near the triple point across NE and eastern SD, extending northward along the front into the upper Midwest. Moderate to strong destabilization (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE), and ascent from the approaching upper troughs will promote scattered strong to severe storms by the afternoon. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and hail. A fairly quick transition to upscale growth is likely Tuesday evening given the large buoyancy and weaker low-level flow allowing for consolidation of outflow. Most CAM solutions show eventual MCS development across central/southeast NE into the overnight hours. Aided by a 40+ kt southerly low-level jet, this MCS could continue into parts of western IA and northern KS with a risk for damaging gusts through 12z. Farther northeast along the front, veered low-level flow and largely unidirectional wind profiles should favor a predominately linear storm mode. One or more clusters may emerge primarily with a risk for damaging gusts and hail as they moving from MN to northern WI and western upper MI by Tuesday evening. Locally stronger flow aloft and near the front could also support a brief tornado or two. Isolated hail and damaging gusts will also be possible in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across northern and eastern WY into western SD. Enhanced mid-level flow and 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE could support a few supercells or stronger clusters near and along the front. ...Eastern Great Basin... As the cold front gradually moves south, it should begin to stall across the northern Great basin Tuesday afternoon. As forcing for ascent from the upper trough interacts with strong diurnal heating, scattered thunderstorm are expected along the front and adjacent higher terrain from northeast NV, through northern UT and into southwestern WY. Weak to moderate SBCAPE atop deep inverted-V structures will favor strong downdrafts with these high-based storms. Damaging gust potential will be maximized along the front where locally stronger convergence and deep-layer shear should support a larger concentration and greater persistence of strong/occasionally severe storm clusters. ...Mid MS Valley... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain likely with several convectively augmented vort maxima/MCVs currently observed across central/northeast TX. While less defined than previous guidance cycles, locally stronger forcing for ascent and enhanced low/mid-level flow could support one or more clusters of strong to occasional severe storm Tuesday afternoon across the Mid MS Valley. These clusters will develop within a very warm/unstable air mass with the potential for occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. As mentioned in the prior outlook, confidence in the ultimate location of theses features as well as the resulting storm coverage/intensity remains too low to introduce higher severe probabilities. ...Southern AZ... Weak easterly flow and seasonably high monsoon moisture south of the upper ridge are expected to support scattered thunderstorms across parts of southern AZ Tuesday afternoon and evening. While steering flow is not overly strong, some enhancement of the mid-level easterlies could promote slightly more organized storm clusters capable of damaging gusts given the deeply mixed PBL. ...Southeast and FL... A weak tropical wave will likely serve as a focus for numerous thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night across parts of FL and the Gulf Coast. A warm, unstable and humid air mass will support numerous thunderstorm clusters over a broad area capable of sporadic damaging downbursts through much of the day. Locally higher severe probabilities will be greatest along sea breeze boundaries and near the upper vort max. However, confidence in more than occasional severe potential is low. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Central/Northern Plains to the upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to eject eastward with several weaker leading disturbances located across the northern Rockies Tuesday. Coincident with increasing mid/upper westerly flow, height falls and weak ascent will support the development of a surface low over western SD. This low will move into southern MN by Wednesday morning, while a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN. South of the front and surface low, a seasonably warm/humid air mass will be in place near the triple point across NE and eastern SD, extending northward along the front into the upper Midwest. Moderate to strong destabilization (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE), and ascent from the approaching upper troughs will promote scattered strong to severe storms by the afternoon. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and hail. A fairly quick transition to upscale growth is likely Tuesday evening given the large buoyancy and weaker low-level flow allowing for consolidation of outflow. Most CAM solutions show eventual MCS development across central/southeast NE into the overnight hours. Aided by a 40+ kt southerly low-level jet, this MCS could continue into parts of western IA and northern KS with a risk for damaging gusts through 12z. Farther northeast along the front, veered low-level flow and largely unidirectional wind profiles should favor a predominately linear storm mode. One or more clusters may emerge primarily with a risk for damaging gusts and hail as they moving from MN to northern WI and western upper MI by Tuesday evening. Locally stronger flow aloft and near the front could also support a brief tornado or two. Isolated hail and damaging gusts will also be possible in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across northern and eastern WY into western SD. Enhanced mid-level flow and 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE could support a few supercells or stronger clusters near and along the front. ...Eastern Great Basin... As the cold front gradually moves south, it should begin to stall across the northern Great basin Tuesday afternoon. As forcing for ascent from the upper trough interacts with strong diurnal heating, scattered thunderstorm are expected along the front and adjacent higher terrain from northeast NV, through northern UT and into southwestern WY. Weak to moderate SBCAPE atop deep inverted-V structures will favor strong downdrafts with these high-based storms. Damaging gust potential will be maximized along the front where locally stronger convergence and deep-layer shear should support a larger concentration and greater persistence of strong/occasionally severe storm clusters. ...Mid MS Valley... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain likely with several convectively augmented vort maxima/MCVs currently observed across central/northeast TX. While less defined than previous guidance cycles, locally stronger forcing for ascent and enhanced low/mid-level flow could support one or more clusters of strong to occasional severe storm Tuesday afternoon across the Mid MS Valley. These clusters will develop within a very warm/unstable air mass with the potential for occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. As mentioned in the prior outlook, confidence in the ultimate location of theses features as well as the resulting storm coverage/intensity remains too low to introduce higher severe probabilities. ...Southern AZ... Weak easterly flow and seasonably high monsoon moisture south of the upper ridge are expected to support scattered thunderstorms across parts of southern AZ Tuesday afternoon and evening. While steering flow is not overly strong, some enhancement of the mid-level easterlies could promote slightly more organized storm clusters capable of damaging gusts given the deeply mixed PBL. ...Southeast and FL... A weak tropical wave will likely serve as a focus for numerous thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night across parts of FL and the Gulf Coast. A warm, unstable and humid air mass will support numerous thunderstorm clusters over a broad area capable of sporadic damaging downbursts through much of the day. Locally higher severe probabilities will be greatest along sea breeze boundaries and near the upper vort max. However, confidence in more than occasional severe potential is low. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Central/Northern Plains to the upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to eject eastward with several weaker leading disturbances located across the northern Rockies Tuesday. Coincident with increasing mid/upper westerly flow, height falls and weak ascent will support the development of a surface low over western SD. This low will move into southern MN by Wednesday morning, while a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN. South of the front and surface low, a seasonably warm/humid air mass will be in place near the triple point across NE and eastern SD, extending northward along the front into the upper Midwest. Moderate to strong destabilization (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE), and ascent from the approaching upper troughs will promote scattered strong to severe storms by the afternoon. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and hail. A fairly quick transition to upscale growth is likely Tuesday evening given the large buoyancy and weaker low-level flow allowing for consolidation of outflow. Most CAM solutions show eventual MCS development across central/southeast NE into the overnight hours. Aided by a 40+ kt southerly low-level jet, this MCS could continue into parts of western IA and northern KS with a risk for damaging gusts through 12z. Farther northeast along the front, veered low-level flow and largely unidirectional wind profiles should favor a predominately linear storm mode. One or more clusters may emerge primarily with a risk for damaging gusts and hail as they moving from MN to northern WI and western upper MI by Tuesday evening. Locally stronger flow aloft and near the front could also support a brief tornado or two. Isolated hail and damaging gusts will also be possible in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across northern and eastern WY into western SD. Enhanced mid-level flow and 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE could support a few supercells or stronger clusters near and along the front. ...Eastern Great Basin... As the cold front gradually moves south, it should begin to stall across the northern Great basin Tuesday afternoon. As forcing for ascent from the upper trough interacts with strong diurnal heating, scattered thunderstorm are expected along the front and adjacent higher terrain from northeast NV, through northern UT and into southwestern WY. Weak to moderate SBCAPE atop deep inverted-V structures will favor strong downdrafts with these high-based storms. Damaging gust potential will be maximized along the front where locally stronger convergence and deep-layer shear should support a larger concentration and greater persistence of strong/occasionally severe storm clusters. ...Mid MS Valley... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain likely with several convectively augmented vort maxima/MCVs currently observed across central/northeast TX. While less defined than previous guidance cycles, locally stronger forcing for ascent and enhanced low/mid-level flow could support one or more clusters of strong to occasional severe storm Tuesday afternoon across the Mid MS Valley. These clusters will develop within a very warm/unstable air mass with the potential for occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. As mentioned in the prior outlook, confidence in the ultimate location of theses features as well as the resulting storm coverage/intensity remains too low to introduce higher severe probabilities. ...Southern AZ... Weak easterly flow and seasonably high monsoon moisture south of the upper ridge are expected to support scattered thunderstorms across parts of southern AZ Tuesday afternoon and evening. While steering flow is not overly strong, some enhancement of the mid-level easterlies could promote slightly more organized storm clusters capable of damaging gusts given the deeply mixed PBL. ...Southeast and FL... A weak tropical wave will likely serve as a focus for numerous thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night across parts of FL and the Gulf Coast. A warm, unstable and humid air mass will support numerous thunderstorm clusters over a broad area capable of sporadic damaging downbursts through much of the day. Locally higher severe probabilities will be greatest along sea breeze boundaries and near the upper vort max. However, confidence in more than occasional severe potential is low. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Central/Northeastern Utah and Northwestern Colorado... A weak upper-level wave evident in water vapor imagery will move through northern Utah today. Slightly increased mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the wave will support enhanced dry downslope flow into the Uinta Basin and along and east of the central Utah mountain chain. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph along with 10-15 percent relative humidity will result in a period of elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels where ERC values are around the 97th percentile. Otherwise, no major changes to previous forecast (see below) for the Northwest, Great Basin or Snake River Plain highlights. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Central/Northeastern Utah and Northwestern Colorado... A weak upper-level wave evident in water vapor imagery will move through northern Utah today. Slightly increased mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the wave will support enhanced dry downslope flow into the Uinta Basin and along and east of the central Utah mountain chain. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph along with 10-15 percent relative humidity will result in a period of elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels where ERC values are around the 97th percentile. Otherwise, no major changes to previous forecast (see below) for the Northwest, Great Basin or Snake River Plain highlights. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Central/Northeastern Utah and Northwestern Colorado... A weak upper-level wave evident in water vapor imagery will move through northern Utah today. Slightly increased mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the wave will support enhanced dry downslope flow into the Uinta Basin and along and east of the central Utah mountain chain. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph along with 10-15 percent relative humidity will result in a period of elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels where ERC values are around the 97th percentile. Otherwise, no major changes to previous forecast (see below) for the Northwest, Great Basin or Snake River Plain highlights. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Central/Northeastern Utah and Northwestern Colorado... A weak upper-level wave evident in water vapor imagery will move through northern Utah today. Slightly increased mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the wave will support enhanced dry downslope flow into the Uinta Basin and along and east of the central Utah mountain chain. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph along with 10-15 percent relative humidity will result in a period of elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels where ERC values are around the 97th percentile. Otherwise, no major changes to previous forecast (see below) for the Northwest, Great Basin or Snake River Plain highlights. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Central/Northeastern Utah and Northwestern Colorado... A weak upper-level wave evident in water vapor imagery will move through northern Utah today. Slightly increased mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the wave will support enhanced dry downslope flow into the Uinta Basin and along and east of the central Utah mountain chain. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph along with 10-15 percent relative humidity will result in a period of elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels where ERC values are around the 97th percentile. Otherwise, no major changes to previous forecast (see below) for the Northwest, Great Basin or Snake River Plain highlights. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Central/Northeastern Utah and Northwestern Colorado... A weak upper-level wave evident in water vapor imagery will move through northern Utah today. Slightly increased mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the wave will support enhanced dry downslope flow into the Uinta Basin and along and east of the central Utah mountain chain. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph along with 10-15 percent relative humidity will result in a period of elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels where ERC values are around the 97th percentile. Otherwise, no major changes to previous forecast (see below) for the Northwest, Great Basin or Snake River Plain highlights. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Central/Northeastern Utah and Northwestern Colorado... A weak upper-level wave evident in water vapor imagery will move through northern Utah today. Slightly increased mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the wave will support enhanced dry downslope flow into the Uinta Basin and along and east of the central Utah mountain chain. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph along with 10-15 percent relative humidity will result in a period of elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels where ERC values are around the 97th percentile. Otherwise, no major changes to previous forecast (see below) for the Northwest, Great Basin or Snake River Plain highlights. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Central/Northeastern Utah and Northwestern Colorado... A weak upper-level wave evident in water vapor imagery will move through northern Utah today. Slightly increased mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the wave will support enhanced dry downslope flow into the Uinta Basin and along and east of the central Utah mountain chain. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph along with 10-15 percent relative humidity will result in a period of elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels where ERC values are around the 97th percentile. Otherwise, no major changes to previous forecast (see below) for the Northwest, Great Basin or Snake River Plain highlights. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Central/Northeastern Utah and Northwestern Colorado... A weak upper-level wave evident in water vapor imagery will move through northern Utah today. Slightly increased mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the wave will support enhanced dry downslope flow into the Uinta Basin and along and east of the central Utah mountain chain. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph along with 10-15 percent relative humidity will result in a period of elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels where ERC values are around the 97th percentile. Otherwise, no major changes to previous forecast (see below) for the Northwest, Great Basin or Snake River Plain highlights. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Central/Northeastern Utah and Northwestern Colorado... A weak upper-level wave evident in water vapor imagery will move through northern Utah today. Slightly increased mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the wave will support enhanced dry downslope flow into the Uinta Basin and along and east of the central Utah mountain chain. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph along with 10-15 percent relative humidity will result in a period of elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels where ERC values are around the 97th percentile. Otherwise, no major changes to previous forecast (see below) for the Northwest, Great Basin or Snake River Plain highlights. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS FAR EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION IN HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS FAR EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION IN HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS FAR EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION IN HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS FAR EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION IN HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS FAR EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION IN HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS FAR EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION IN HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2025 Read more