Severe Storms

WW 502 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 102030Z - 110300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 502 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Western and Central Kansas Southwest and South-Central Nebraska * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across a wide area from the Colorado Front Range into western Kansas and south-central Nebraska this afternoon, with storms continuing into the evening. Some isolated hail is possible with these storms, particularly along the Front Range, but the primary severe hazard is expected to be strong wind gusts. Some wind gusts to 75 mph are possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 130 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northeast of Imperial NE to 15 miles east southeast of Elkhart KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 501... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Mosier Read more

MD 1634 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1634 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0613 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Areas affected...Eastern IA into northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102313Z - 110115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail/wind, and perhaps a brief tornado, are possible across eastern Iowa into northern Illinois this evening. Watch is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is evident in water-vapor imagery, very near the MS River, from southeast MN into northwestern IL. Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature appears to be aiding convection across northern IL, just north of a warm front that is draped from south of Chicago to north of Dubuque IA. Low-level warm advection is likely contributing to a few small, slow-moving clusters north of the wind shift. Radar data suggests this activity may be generating locally severe hail, and gusty winds. Wind profiles are not that strong ahead of the short wave, but veering profiles do suggest some rotation is possible. Farther west across eastern IA, scattered thunderstorms have developed just behind the trough within a more buoyant and stronger sheared environment. At times a few updrafts have exhibited supercell characteristics, but updrafts have struggled to organize at times, possibly due to the passage of the short wave. Unless this activity becomes more organized current thinking is the primary concerns will be isolated hail/wind, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Darrow/Hart.. 07/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 42599148 42288778 41328786 41039052 40769277 42599148 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0503 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0503 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS....EASTERN NEBRASKA...MUCH OF IOWA...PARTS OF NWRN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible this evening across parts of the central Great Plains into Upper Midwest. This could still include a slowly organizing cluster of storms with potential for strong to severe surface gusts across the eastern Nebraska into Iowa vicinity. ...01Z Update... A belt of 20-30+ kt southerly/westerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow across parts of the central Great Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest may continue to enhance convective development, at least a bit, this evening into the overnight hours. In mid-levels, this includes flow augmented by convectively generated cyclonic circulations, but, in lower-levels, this includes a south-southwesterly low-level jet associated with weak mid-level troughing digging east-southeast of the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies. The low-level jet appears to be focusing a corridor of stronger warm advection across parts of south central through eastern Nebraska, where convective development may still consolidate and grow upscale this evening. Perhaps aided by forcing associated with the synoptic perturbation, or another evolving MCV, it might not be out of the question that activity may slowly organize and acquire increasing inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer air characterized by sizable CAPE as it tends to propagate eastward overnight. If this occurs, there appears potential for sufficient intensification to support an increasing risk for strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS....EASTERN NEBRASKA...MUCH OF IOWA...PARTS OF NWRN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible this evening across parts of the central Great Plains into Upper Midwest. This could still include a slowly organizing cluster of storms with potential for strong to severe surface gusts across the eastern Nebraska into Iowa vicinity. ...01Z Update... A belt of 20-30+ kt southerly/westerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow across parts of the central Great Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest may continue to enhance convective development, at least a bit, this evening into the overnight hours. In mid-levels, this includes flow augmented by convectively generated cyclonic circulations, but, in lower-levels, this includes a south-southwesterly low-level jet associated with weak mid-level troughing digging east-southeast of the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies. The low-level jet appears to be focusing a corridor of stronger warm advection across parts of south central through eastern Nebraska, where convective development may still consolidate and grow upscale this evening. Perhaps aided by forcing associated with the synoptic perturbation, or another evolving MCV, it might not be out of the question that activity may slowly organize and acquire increasing inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer air characterized by sizable CAPE as it tends to propagate eastward overnight. If this occurs, there appears potential for sufficient intensification to support an increasing risk for strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS....EASTERN NEBRASKA...MUCH OF IOWA...PARTS OF NWRN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible this evening across parts of the central Great Plains into Upper Midwest. This could still include a slowly organizing cluster of storms with potential for strong to severe surface gusts across the eastern Nebraska into Iowa vicinity. ...01Z Update... A belt of 20-30+ kt southerly/westerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow across parts of the central Great Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest may continue to enhance convective development, at least a bit, this evening into the overnight hours. In mid-levels, this includes flow augmented by convectively generated cyclonic circulations, but, in lower-levels, this includes a south-southwesterly low-level jet associated with weak mid-level troughing digging east-southeast of the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies. The low-level jet appears to be focusing a corridor of stronger warm advection across parts of south central through eastern Nebraska, where convective development may still consolidate and grow upscale this evening. Perhaps aided by forcing associated with the synoptic perturbation, or another evolving MCV, it might not be out of the question that activity may slowly organize and acquire increasing inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer air characterized by sizable CAPE as it tends to propagate eastward overnight. If this occurs, there appears potential for sufficient intensification to support an increasing risk for strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS....EASTERN NEBRASKA...MUCH OF IOWA...PARTS OF NWRN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible this evening across parts of the central Great Plains into Upper Midwest. This could still include a slowly organizing cluster of storms with potential for strong to severe surface gusts across the eastern Nebraska into Iowa vicinity. ...01Z Update... A belt of 20-30+ kt southerly/westerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow across parts of the central Great Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest may continue to enhance convective development, at least a bit, this evening into the overnight hours. In mid-levels, this includes flow augmented by convectively generated cyclonic circulations, but, in lower-levels, this includes a south-southwesterly low-level jet associated with weak mid-level troughing digging east-southeast of the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies. The low-level jet appears to be focusing a corridor of stronger warm advection across parts of south central through eastern Nebraska, where convective development may still consolidate and grow upscale this evening. Perhaps aided by forcing associated with the synoptic perturbation, or another evolving MCV, it might not be out of the question that activity may slowly organize and acquire increasing inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer air characterized by sizable CAPE as it tends to propagate eastward overnight. If this occurs, there appears potential for sufficient intensification to support an increasing risk for strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS....EASTERN NEBRASKA...MUCH OF IOWA...PARTS OF NWRN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible this evening across parts of the central Great Plains into Upper Midwest. This could still include a slowly organizing cluster of storms with potential for strong to severe surface gusts across the eastern Nebraska into Iowa vicinity. ...01Z Update... A belt of 20-30+ kt southerly/westerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow across parts of the central Great Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest may continue to enhance convective development, at least a bit, this evening into the overnight hours. In mid-levels, this includes flow augmented by convectively generated cyclonic circulations, but, in lower-levels, this includes a south-southwesterly low-level jet associated with weak mid-level troughing digging east-southeast of the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies. The low-level jet appears to be focusing a corridor of stronger warm advection across parts of south central through eastern Nebraska, where convective development may still consolidate and grow upscale this evening. Perhaps aided by forcing associated with the synoptic perturbation, or another evolving MCV, it might not be out of the question that activity may slowly organize and acquire increasing inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer air characterized by sizable CAPE as it tends to propagate eastward overnight. If this occurs, there appears potential for sufficient intensification to support an increasing risk for strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS....EASTERN NEBRASKA...MUCH OF IOWA...PARTS OF NWRN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible this evening across parts of the central Great Plains into Upper Midwest. This could still include a slowly organizing cluster of storms with potential for strong to severe surface gusts across the eastern Nebraska into Iowa vicinity. ...01Z Update... A belt of 20-30+ kt southerly/westerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow across parts of the central Great Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest may continue to enhance convective development, at least a bit, this evening into the overnight hours. In mid-levels, this includes flow augmented by convectively generated cyclonic circulations, but, in lower-levels, this includes a south-southwesterly low-level jet associated with weak mid-level troughing digging east-southeast of the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies. The low-level jet appears to be focusing a corridor of stronger warm advection across parts of south central through eastern Nebraska, where convective development may still consolidate and grow upscale this evening. Perhaps aided by forcing associated with the synoptic perturbation, or another evolving MCV, it might not be out of the question that activity may slowly organize and acquire increasing inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer air characterized by sizable CAPE as it tends to propagate eastward overnight. If this occurs, there appears potential for sufficient intensification to support an increasing risk for strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS....EASTERN NEBRASKA...MUCH OF IOWA...PARTS OF NWRN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible this evening across parts of the central Great Plains into Upper Midwest. This could still include a slowly organizing cluster of storms with potential for strong to severe surface gusts across the eastern Nebraska into Iowa vicinity. ...01Z Update... A belt of 20-30+ kt southerly/westerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow across parts of the central Great Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest may continue to enhance convective development, at least a bit, this evening into the overnight hours. In mid-levels, this includes flow augmented by convectively generated cyclonic circulations, but, in lower-levels, this includes a south-southwesterly low-level jet associated with weak mid-level troughing digging east-southeast of the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies. The low-level jet appears to be focusing a corridor of stronger warm advection across parts of south central through eastern Nebraska, where convective development may still consolidate and grow upscale this evening. Perhaps aided by forcing associated with the synoptic perturbation, or another evolving MCV, it might not be out of the question that activity may slowly organize and acquire increasing inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer air characterized by sizable CAPE as it tends to propagate eastward overnight. If this occurs, there appears potential for sufficient intensification to support an increasing risk for strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS....EASTERN NEBRASKA...MUCH OF IOWA...PARTS OF NWRN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible this evening across parts of the central Great Plains into Upper Midwest. This could still include a slowly organizing cluster of storms with potential for strong to severe surface gusts across the eastern Nebraska into Iowa vicinity. ...01Z Update... A belt of 20-30+ kt southerly/westerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow across parts of the central Great Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest may continue to enhance convective development, at least a bit, this evening into the overnight hours. In mid-levels, this includes flow augmented by convectively generated cyclonic circulations, but, in lower-levels, this includes a south-southwesterly low-level jet associated with weak mid-level troughing digging east-southeast of the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies. The low-level jet appears to be focusing a corridor of stronger warm advection across parts of south central through eastern Nebraska, where convective development may still consolidate and grow upscale this evening. Perhaps aided by forcing associated with the synoptic perturbation, or another evolving MCV, it might not be out of the question that activity may slowly organize and acquire increasing inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer air characterized by sizable CAPE as it tends to propagate eastward overnight. If this occurs, there appears potential for sufficient intensification to support an increasing risk for strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS....EASTERN NEBRASKA...MUCH OF IOWA...PARTS OF NWRN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible this evening across parts of the central Great Plains into Upper Midwest. This could still include a slowly organizing cluster of storms with potential for strong to severe surface gusts across the eastern Nebraska into Iowa vicinity. ...01Z Update... A belt of 20-30+ kt southerly/westerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow across parts of the central Great Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest may continue to enhance convective development, at least a bit, this evening into the overnight hours. In mid-levels, this includes flow augmented by convectively generated cyclonic circulations, but, in lower-levels, this includes a south-southwesterly low-level jet associated with weak mid-level troughing digging east-southeast of the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies. The low-level jet appears to be focusing a corridor of stronger warm advection across parts of south central through eastern Nebraska, where convective development may still consolidate and grow upscale this evening. Perhaps aided by forcing associated with the synoptic perturbation, or another evolving MCV, it might not be out of the question that activity may slowly organize and acquire increasing inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer air characterized by sizable CAPE as it tends to propagate eastward overnight. If this occurs, there appears potential for sufficient intensification to support an increasing risk for strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS....EASTERN NEBRASKA...MUCH OF IOWA...PARTS OF NWRN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible this evening across parts of the central Great Plains into Upper Midwest. This could still include a slowly organizing cluster of storms with potential for strong to severe surface gusts across the eastern Nebraska into Iowa vicinity. ...01Z Update... A belt of 20-30+ kt southerly/westerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow across parts of the central Great Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest may continue to enhance convective development, at least a bit, this evening into the overnight hours. In mid-levels, this includes flow augmented by convectively generated cyclonic circulations, but, in lower-levels, this includes a south-southwesterly low-level jet associated with weak mid-level troughing digging east-southeast of the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies. The low-level jet appears to be focusing a corridor of stronger warm advection across parts of south central through eastern Nebraska, where convective development may still consolidate and grow upscale this evening. Perhaps aided by forcing associated with the synoptic perturbation, or another evolving MCV, it might not be out of the question that activity may slowly organize and acquire increasing inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer air characterized by sizable CAPE as it tends to propagate eastward overnight. If this occurs, there appears potential for sufficient intensification to support an increasing risk for strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 07/11/2025 Read more

WW 0502 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 502 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RTN TO 35 WSW SPD TO 10 NW LAA TO 35 NE LIC TO 45 ESE FCL. ..THORNTON..07/11/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...DDC...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 502 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-061-063-075-087-095-099-115-121-125-110140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE KIOWA KIT CARSON LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS PROWERS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-025-033-039-047-051-055-057-063-065-067-069-071-075-081- 083-093-097-101-109-119-129-135-137-141-145-147-153-163-165-171- 175-179-181-183-187-189-193-195-199-203-110140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CLARK COMANCHE DECATUR EDWARDS ELLIS FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY KIOWA LANE LOGAN MEADE Read more

WW 0501 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 501 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..07/11/25 ATTN...WFO...OAX...FSD...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 501 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC085-133-149-193-110140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARRISON MONONA PLYMOUTH WOODBURY NEC003-011-021-023-027-037-039-041-043-051-053-055-071-077-089- 093-107-115-119-121-125-139-141-143-149-153-155-163-167-173-175- 177-179-183-110140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BOONE BURT BUTLER CEDAR COLFAX CUMING CUSTER DAKOTA DIXON DODGE DOUGLAS GARFIELD GREELEY HOLT HOWARD KNOX LOUP MADISON MERRICK NANCE PIERCE PLATTE POLK ROCK SARPY SAUNDERS SHERMAN STANTON THURSTON Read more

MD 1635 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 501... FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1635 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...Western Iowa Concerning...Tornado Watch 501... Valid 102345Z - 110145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 501 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. DISCUSSION...Short-wave ridging that has been observed over the lower MO Valley is shifting east as a secondary, notable short-wave trough is advancing across central SD/western NE. Low-level warm advection is focused into this region, just north of a boundary that is draped from south of Grand Island-Omaha-north of Des Moines. This warm-advection regime favors rotation, and a few slow-moving supercells can be expected in advance of the short wave this evening. While some supercell structures are possible, with time convection may evolve into larger clusters, and possibly an MCS. LLJ is forecast to strengthen across northeast KS into southwest IA later this evening, and this should encourage more robust convection to propagate into this portion of the MO Valley with time. ..Darrow.. 07/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 40409966 42579967 43069519 40889519 40409966 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1634 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1634 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0613 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Areas affected...Eastern IA into northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102313Z - 110115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail/wind, and perhaps a brief tornado, are possible across eastern Iowa into northern Illinois this evening. Watch is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is evident in water-vapor imagery, very near the MS River, from southeast MN into northwestern IL. Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature appears to be aiding convection across northern IL, just north of a warm front that is draped from south of Chicago to north of Dubuque IA. Low-level warm advection is likely contributing to a few small, slow-moving clusters north of the wind shift. Radar data suggests this activity may be generating locally severe hail, and gusty winds. Wind profiles are not that strong ahead of the short wave, but veering profiles do suggest some rotation is possible. Farther west across eastern IA, scattered thunderstorms have developed just behind the trough within a more buoyant and stronger sheared environment. At times a few updrafts have exhibited supercell characteristics, but updrafts have struggled to organize at times, possibly due to the passage of the short wave. Unless this activity becomes more organized current thinking is the primary concerns will be isolated hail/wind, and perhaps a brief tornado. ..Darrow/Hart.. 07/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 42599148 42288778 41328786 41039052 40769277 42599148 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jul 10 22:55:08 UTC 2025.

WW 0502 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 502 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..07/10/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...DDC...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 502 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-009-011-017-025-039-041-061-063-071-073-075-087-089- 095-099-101-115-121-125-102340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS PUEBLO SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-025-033-039-047-051-055-057-063-065-067-069-071-075-081- 083-093-097-101-109-119-129-135-137-141-145-147-153-163-165-171- 175-179-181-183-187-189-193-195-199-203-102340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CLARK COMANCHE DECATUR EDWARDS ELLIS FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY Read more

WW 0502 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 502 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..07/10/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...DDC...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 502 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-009-011-017-025-039-041-061-063-071-073-075-087-089- 095-099-101-115-121-125-102340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS PUEBLO SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-025-033-039-047-051-055-057-063-065-067-069-071-075-081- 083-093-097-101-109-119-129-135-137-141-145-147-153-163-165-171- 175-179-181-183-187-189-193-195-199-203-102340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CLARK COMANCHE DECATUR EDWARDS ELLIS FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY Read more