Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with a wind-damage, hail and isolated tornado threat, will be possible this evening across parts of the Florida Keys. A marginal severe threat is also expected across parts of south Florida and the central to eastern Gulf Coast. ...Central and Eastern Gulf Coast... An upper-level trough will move into the western Gulf of Mexico today. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will advect northward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast. Surface dewpoints are expected to reach 60+ F just to the east of surface low tracking through the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the low, convergence is forecast to become maximized near a warm front located just offshore to near the coast. Model forecasts suggest that a band of thunderstorms will develop around midday along this zone of low-level convergence. The moist airmass, along with moderate deep-layer shear and strong low-level convergence, will likely contribute to a marginal severe threat. Rotating storms that develop and move onshore could be associated with wind damage, hail and a marginal tornado threat. ...South Florida... A mid-level jet will move across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico today, as an upper-level system approaches from the west. At the surface, a low is forecast to develop and move toward the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. A moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will advect northward into far south Florida by early evening, where RAP forecast soundings increase MLCAPE into the 1000 to 1500 J/Kg range. Scattered thunderstorms, associated with lift ahead of the approaching system and the stronger instability, are forecast to move into the Florida Keys by early this evening. Convective coverage will likely gradually increase as an MCS moves across the southern Florida Peninsula. RAP forecast soundings in the Florida Keys this evening have 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity increasing to between 250 and 300 m2/s2. This could support a tornado threat with rotating cells that move across far south Florida ahead of the approaching MCS. Marginally severe gusts, hail and a tornado or two will be possible, mainly in the Florida Keys, where severe parameters are forecast to become maximized. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with a wind-damage, hail and isolated tornado threat, will be possible this evening across parts of the Florida Keys. A marginal severe threat is also expected across parts of south Florida and the central to eastern Gulf Coast. ...Central and Eastern Gulf Coast... An upper-level trough will move into the western Gulf of Mexico today. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will advect northward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast. Surface dewpoints are expected to reach 60+ F just to the east of surface low tracking through the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the low, convergence is forecast to become maximized near a warm front located just offshore to near the coast. Model forecasts suggest that a band of thunderstorms will develop around midday along this zone of low-level convergence. The moist airmass, along with moderate deep-layer shear and strong low-level convergence, will likely contribute to a marginal severe threat. Rotating storms that develop and move onshore could be associated with wind damage, hail and a marginal tornado threat. ...South Florida... A mid-level jet will move across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico today, as an upper-level system approaches from the west. At the surface, a low is forecast to develop and move toward the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. A moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will advect northward into far south Florida by early evening, where RAP forecast soundings increase MLCAPE into the 1000 to 1500 J/Kg range. Scattered thunderstorms, associated with lift ahead of the approaching system and the stronger instability, are forecast to move into the Florida Keys by early this evening. Convective coverage will likely gradually increase as an MCS moves across the southern Florida Peninsula. RAP forecast soundings in the Florida Keys this evening have 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity increasing to between 250 and 300 m2/s2. This could support a tornado threat with rotating cells that move across far south Florida ahead of the approaching MCS. Marginally severe gusts, hail and a tornado or two will be possible, mainly in the Florida Keys, where severe parameters are forecast to become maximized. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with a wind-damage, hail and isolated tornado threat, will be possible this evening across parts of the Florida Keys. A marginal severe threat is also expected across parts of south Florida and the central to eastern Gulf Coast. ...Central and Eastern Gulf Coast... An upper-level trough will move into the western Gulf of Mexico today. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will advect northward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast. Surface dewpoints are expected to reach 60+ F just to the east of surface low tracking through the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the low, convergence is forecast to become maximized near a warm front located just offshore to near the coast. Model forecasts suggest that a band of thunderstorms will develop around midday along this zone of low-level convergence. The moist airmass, along with moderate deep-layer shear and strong low-level convergence, will likely contribute to a marginal severe threat. Rotating storms that develop and move onshore could be associated with wind damage, hail and a marginal tornado threat. ...South Florida... A mid-level jet will move across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico today, as an upper-level system approaches from the west. At the surface, a low is forecast to develop and move toward the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. A moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will advect northward into far south Florida by early evening, where RAP forecast soundings increase MLCAPE into the 1000 to 1500 J/Kg range. Scattered thunderstorms, associated with lift ahead of the approaching system and the stronger instability, are forecast to move into the Florida Keys by early this evening. Convective coverage will likely gradually increase as an MCS moves across the southern Florida Peninsula. RAP forecast soundings in the Florida Keys this evening have 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity increasing to between 250 and 300 m2/s2. This could support a tornado threat with rotating cells that move across far south Florida ahead of the approaching MCS. Marginally severe gusts, hail and a tornado or two will be possible, mainly in the Florida Keys, where severe parameters are forecast to become maximized. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with a wind-damage, hail and isolated tornado threat, will be possible this evening across parts of the Florida Keys. A marginal severe threat is also expected across parts of south Florida and the central to eastern Gulf Coast. ...Central and Eastern Gulf Coast... An upper-level trough will move into the western Gulf of Mexico today. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will advect northward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast. Surface dewpoints are expected to reach 60+ F just to the east of surface low tracking through the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the low, convergence is forecast to become maximized near a warm front located just offshore to near the coast. Model forecasts suggest that a band of thunderstorms will develop around midday along this zone of low-level convergence. The moist airmass, along with moderate deep-layer shear and strong low-level convergence, will likely contribute to a marginal severe threat. Rotating storms that develop and move onshore could be associated with wind damage, hail and a marginal tornado threat. ...South Florida... A mid-level jet will move across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico today, as an upper-level system approaches from the west. At the surface, a low is forecast to develop and move toward the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. A moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will advect northward into far south Florida by early evening, where RAP forecast soundings increase MLCAPE into the 1000 to 1500 J/Kg range. Scattered thunderstorms, associated with lift ahead of the approaching system and the stronger instability, are forecast to move into the Florida Keys by early this evening. Convective coverage will likely gradually increase as an MCS moves across the southern Florida Peninsula. RAP forecast soundings in the Florida Keys this evening have 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity increasing to between 250 and 300 m2/s2. This could support a tornado threat with rotating cells that move across far south Florida ahead of the approaching MCS. Marginally severe gusts, hail and a tornado or two will be possible, mainly in the Florida Keys, where severe parameters are forecast to become maximized. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with a wind-damage, hail and isolated tornado threat, will be possible this evening across parts of the Florida Keys. A marginal severe threat is also expected across parts of south Florida and the central to eastern Gulf Coast. ...Central and Eastern Gulf Coast... An upper-level trough will move into the western Gulf of Mexico today. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will advect northward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast. Surface dewpoints are expected to reach 60+ F just to the east of surface low tracking through the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the low, convergence is forecast to become maximized near a warm front located just offshore to near the coast. Model forecasts suggest that a band of thunderstorms will develop around midday along this zone of low-level convergence. The moist airmass, along with moderate deep-layer shear and strong low-level convergence, will likely contribute to a marginal severe threat. Rotating storms that develop and move onshore could be associated with wind damage, hail and a marginal tornado threat. ...South Florida... A mid-level jet will move across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico today, as an upper-level system approaches from the west. At the surface, a low is forecast to develop and move toward the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. A moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will advect northward into far south Florida by early evening, where RAP forecast soundings increase MLCAPE into the 1000 to 1500 J/Kg range. Scattered thunderstorms, associated with lift ahead of the approaching system and the stronger instability, are forecast to move into the Florida Keys by early this evening. Convective coverage will likely gradually increase as an MCS moves across the southern Florida Peninsula. RAP forecast soundings in the Florida Keys this evening have 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity increasing to between 250 and 300 m2/s2. This could support a tornado threat with rotating cells that move across far south Florida ahead of the approaching MCS. Marginally severe gusts, hail and a tornado or two will be possible, mainly in the Florida Keys, where severe parameters are forecast to become maximized. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with a wind-damage, hail and isolated tornado threat, will be possible this evening across parts of the Florida Keys. A marginal severe threat is also expected across parts of south Florida and the central to eastern Gulf Coast. ...Central and Eastern Gulf Coast... An upper-level trough will move into the western Gulf of Mexico today. Ahead of the trough, a moist airmass will advect northward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast. Surface dewpoints are expected to reach 60+ F just to the east of surface low tracking through the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the low, convergence is forecast to become maximized near a warm front located just offshore to near the coast. Model forecasts suggest that a band of thunderstorms will develop around midday along this zone of low-level convergence. The moist airmass, along with moderate deep-layer shear and strong low-level convergence, will likely contribute to a marginal severe threat. Rotating storms that develop and move onshore could be associated with wind damage, hail and a marginal tornado threat. ...South Florida... A mid-level jet will move across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico today, as an upper-level system approaches from the west. At the surface, a low is forecast to develop and move toward the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. A moist airmass, with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will advect northward into far south Florida by early evening, where RAP forecast soundings increase MLCAPE into the 1000 to 1500 J/Kg range. Scattered thunderstorms, associated with lift ahead of the approaching system and the stronger instability, are forecast to move into the Florida Keys by early this evening. Convective coverage will likely gradually increase as an MCS moves across the southern Florida Peninsula. RAP forecast soundings in the Florida Keys this evening have 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity increasing to between 250 and 300 m2/s2. This could support a tornado threat with rotating cells that move across far south Florida ahead of the approaching MCS. Marginally severe gusts, hail and a tornado or two will be possible, mainly in the Florida Keys, where severe parameters are forecast to become maximized. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 Read more

MD 0277 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0277 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0903 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 220203Z - 220330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail may accompany ongoing supercells over the few hours. DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorm updrafts, including one supercell structure over San Antonio, is traversing a surface boundary across portions of southern TX. To the south of this boundary resides a warmer and moister boundary layer contributing to over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE (given the presence of 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates per 00Z mesoanalysis). Regional VADs and the mesoanalysis also depict elongated hodographs with marginal low-level curvature, suggesting that severe hail should be the primary hazard with ongoing storms. Ongoing nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer would also suggest that the ongoing severe threat is temporally limited. A WW issuance is not currently expected since the severe threat should also remain isolated. ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29379592 29149647 29019730 29019794 29119836 29319851 29599848 29909820 30199767 30229657 30069592 29679565 29379592 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms are expected this evening from central and east Texas into southwest Louisiana. Isolated large hail and a few strong wind gusts will be possible. ...Central and East Texas/Southwest Louisiana... The latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show an upper-level trough over west-central Texas, with a relatively large area of large-scale ascent located from near the trough eastward across much of the Southern Plains. This is supporting scattered thunderstorm development across much of Texas and in parts of southern Oklahoma. Weak instability is present across much of central and east Texas, where the RAP has MLCAPE generally near or below 1000 J/kg. This, combined with cold temperatures aloft and moderate deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet, will make isolated large hail a possibility with the stronger storms this evening. Line segments that become somewhat organized may also have wind-damage potential. As the storms move further east this evening, a marginal severe threat may develop across parts of east Texas and southwest Louisiana. ..Broyles.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms are expected this evening from central and east Texas into southwest Louisiana. Isolated large hail and a few strong wind gusts will be possible. ...Central and East Texas/Southwest Louisiana... The latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show an upper-level trough over west-central Texas, with a relatively large area of large-scale ascent located from near the trough eastward across much of the Southern Plains. This is supporting scattered thunderstorm development across much of Texas and in parts of southern Oklahoma. Weak instability is present across much of central and east Texas, where the RAP has MLCAPE generally near or below 1000 J/kg. This, combined with cold temperatures aloft and moderate deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet, will make isolated large hail a possibility with the stronger storms this evening. Line segments that become somewhat organized may also have wind-damage potential. As the storms move further east this evening, a marginal severe threat may develop across parts of east Texas and southwest Louisiana. ..Broyles.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms are expected this evening from central and east Texas into southwest Louisiana. Isolated large hail and a few strong wind gusts will be possible. ...Central and East Texas/Southwest Louisiana... The latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show an upper-level trough over west-central Texas, with a relatively large area of large-scale ascent located from near the trough eastward across much of the Southern Plains. This is supporting scattered thunderstorm development across much of Texas and in parts of southern Oklahoma. Weak instability is present across much of central and east Texas, where the RAP has MLCAPE generally near or below 1000 J/kg. This, combined with cold temperatures aloft and moderate deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet, will make isolated large hail a possibility with the stronger storms this evening. Line segments that become somewhat organized may also have wind-damage potential. As the storms move further east this evening, a marginal severe threat may develop across parts of east Texas and southwest Louisiana. ..Broyles.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms are expected this evening from central and east Texas into southwest Louisiana. Isolated large hail and a few strong wind gusts will be possible. ...Central and East Texas/Southwest Louisiana... The latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show an upper-level trough over west-central Texas, with a relatively large area of large-scale ascent located from near the trough eastward across much of the Southern Plains. This is supporting scattered thunderstorm development across much of Texas and in parts of southern Oklahoma. Weak instability is present across much of central and east Texas, where the RAP has MLCAPE generally near or below 1000 J/kg. This, combined with cold temperatures aloft and moderate deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet, will make isolated large hail a possibility with the stronger storms this evening. Line segments that become somewhat organized may also have wind-damage potential. As the storms move further east this evening, a marginal severe threat may develop across parts of east Texas and southwest Louisiana. ..Broyles.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms are expected this evening from central and east Texas into southwest Louisiana. Isolated large hail and a few strong wind gusts will be possible. ...Central and East Texas/Southwest Louisiana... The latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show an upper-level trough over west-central Texas, with a relatively large area of large-scale ascent located from near the trough eastward across much of the Southern Plains. This is supporting scattered thunderstorm development across much of Texas and in parts of southern Oklahoma. Weak instability is present across much of central and east Texas, where the RAP has MLCAPE generally near or below 1000 J/kg. This, combined with cold temperatures aloft and moderate deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet, will make isolated large hail a possibility with the stronger storms this evening. Line segments that become somewhat organized may also have wind-damage potential. As the storms move further east this evening, a marginal severe threat may develop across parts of east Texas and southwest Louisiana. ..Broyles.. 03/22/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 21 23:51:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 21 23:51:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Sunday afternoon across portions of the Southern High Plains, and may re-emerge later in the upcoming work week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of precipitation chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels will limit the potential for widespread fire weather concerns. ...D4/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Confidence continues to increase regarding the fire weather potential Sunday afternoon as an upper-level trough settles into the Four Corners region. Medium to long-range guidance has maintained a strong signal for a deepening lee cyclone over the CO/KS region Sunday afternoon amid strengthening upper-level flow over the central/southern Rockies. This will establish a swath of strong southwesterly flow across eastern NM into western TX behind a sharpening dryline. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be conditional on the progression of the dryline by peak heating, with some solutions hinting that this boundary may reach into western/central OK and north/northwest TX by 21 UTC. Relative humidity values may not be quite as low as previous critical fire weather events, but most deterministic/ensemble solutions (including bias-corrected guidance) hint that RH minimums near 20% should be fairly common. ERC values are currently near the 50th percentile, and light scattered rainfall is noted over western TX as of 20 UTC Thursday. However, even with modest RH reductions (by southern Plains standards) and marginal ERC values, an excessive loading of fine, 1-hour fuels combined with high probability for 20-30 mph winds and ~20% RH should support a wind-driven fire weather concern. Higher risk probabilities have been introduced from far southeast NM into western TX to delineate where guidance currently indicates the best overlap of the low-level thermal ridge and the mid/upper-level jet maximum should occur. This region will see the highest potential for sub-20% RH as well as gusts upwards of 40-60 mph. Further forecast refinements are anticipated as confidence in finer-scale details improves. Heading into the upcoming work week, more regional fire weather concerns may develop across southwest TX and the Rio Grande river valley within a dry post-frontal regime. A more robust fire concern is beginning to emerge around the D8/Thursday time frame when a second upper trough could move into the region. Confidence in surface details is too low at this range to introduce risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for this next system. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Sunday afternoon across portions of the Southern High Plains, and may re-emerge later in the upcoming work week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of precipitation chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels will limit the potential for widespread fire weather concerns. ...D4/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Confidence continues to increase regarding the fire weather potential Sunday afternoon as an upper-level trough settles into the Four Corners region. Medium to long-range guidance has maintained a strong signal for a deepening lee cyclone over the CO/KS region Sunday afternoon amid strengthening upper-level flow over the central/southern Rockies. This will establish a swath of strong southwesterly flow across eastern NM into western TX behind a sharpening dryline. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be conditional on the progression of the dryline by peak heating, with some solutions hinting that this boundary may reach into western/central OK and north/northwest TX by 21 UTC. Relative humidity values may not be quite as low as previous critical fire weather events, but most deterministic/ensemble solutions (including bias-corrected guidance) hint that RH minimums near 20% should be fairly common. ERC values are currently near the 50th percentile, and light scattered rainfall is noted over western TX as of 20 UTC Thursday. However, even with modest RH reductions (by southern Plains standards) and marginal ERC values, an excessive loading of fine, 1-hour fuels combined with high probability for 20-30 mph winds and ~20% RH should support a wind-driven fire weather concern. Higher risk probabilities have been introduced from far southeast NM into western TX to delineate where guidance currently indicates the best overlap of the low-level thermal ridge and the mid/upper-level jet maximum should occur. This region will see the highest potential for sub-20% RH as well as gusts upwards of 40-60 mph. Further forecast refinements are anticipated as confidence in finer-scale details improves. Heading into the upcoming work week, more regional fire weather concerns may develop across southwest TX and the Rio Grande river valley within a dry post-frontal regime. A more robust fire concern is beginning to emerge around the D8/Thursday time frame when a second upper trough could move into the region. Confidence in surface details is too low at this range to introduce risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for this next system. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Sunday afternoon across portions of the Southern High Plains, and may re-emerge later in the upcoming work week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of precipitation chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels will limit the potential for widespread fire weather concerns. ...D4/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Confidence continues to increase regarding the fire weather potential Sunday afternoon as an upper-level trough settles into the Four Corners region. Medium to long-range guidance has maintained a strong signal for a deepening lee cyclone over the CO/KS region Sunday afternoon amid strengthening upper-level flow over the central/southern Rockies. This will establish a swath of strong southwesterly flow across eastern NM into western TX behind a sharpening dryline. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be conditional on the progression of the dryline by peak heating, with some solutions hinting that this boundary may reach into western/central OK and north/northwest TX by 21 UTC. Relative humidity values may not be quite as low as previous critical fire weather events, but most deterministic/ensemble solutions (including bias-corrected guidance) hint that RH minimums near 20% should be fairly common. ERC values are currently near the 50th percentile, and light scattered rainfall is noted over western TX as of 20 UTC Thursday. However, even with modest RH reductions (by southern Plains standards) and marginal ERC values, an excessive loading of fine, 1-hour fuels combined with high probability for 20-30 mph winds and ~20% RH should support a wind-driven fire weather concern. Higher risk probabilities have been introduced from far southeast NM into western TX to delineate where guidance currently indicates the best overlap of the low-level thermal ridge and the mid/upper-level jet maximum should occur. This region will see the highest potential for sub-20% RH as well as gusts upwards of 40-60 mph. Further forecast refinements are anticipated as confidence in finer-scale details improves. Heading into the upcoming work week, more regional fire weather concerns may develop across southwest TX and the Rio Grande river valley within a dry post-frontal regime. A more robust fire concern is beginning to emerge around the D8/Thursday time frame when a second upper trough could move into the region. Confidence in surface details is too low at this range to introduce risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for this next system. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Sunday afternoon across portions of the Southern High Plains, and may re-emerge later in the upcoming work week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of precipitation chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels will limit the potential for widespread fire weather concerns. ...D4/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Confidence continues to increase regarding the fire weather potential Sunday afternoon as an upper-level trough settles into the Four Corners region. Medium to long-range guidance has maintained a strong signal for a deepening lee cyclone over the CO/KS region Sunday afternoon amid strengthening upper-level flow over the central/southern Rockies. This will establish a swath of strong southwesterly flow across eastern NM into western TX behind a sharpening dryline. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be conditional on the progression of the dryline by peak heating, with some solutions hinting that this boundary may reach into western/central OK and north/northwest TX by 21 UTC. Relative humidity values may not be quite as low as previous critical fire weather events, but most deterministic/ensemble solutions (including bias-corrected guidance) hint that RH minimums near 20% should be fairly common. ERC values are currently near the 50th percentile, and light scattered rainfall is noted over western TX as of 20 UTC Thursday. However, even with modest RH reductions (by southern Plains standards) and marginal ERC values, an excessive loading of fine, 1-hour fuels combined with high probability for 20-30 mph winds and ~20% RH should support a wind-driven fire weather concern. Higher risk probabilities have been introduced from far southeast NM into western TX to delineate where guidance currently indicates the best overlap of the low-level thermal ridge and the mid/upper-level jet maximum should occur. This region will see the highest potential for sub-20% RH as well as gusts upwards of 40-60 mph. Further forecast refinements are anticipated as confidence in finer-scale details improves. Heading into the upcoming work week, more regional fire weather concerns may develop across southwest TX and the Rio Grande river valley within a dry post-frontal regime. A more robust fire concern is beginning to emerge around the D8/Thursday time frame when a second upper trough could move into the region. Confidence in surface details is too low at this range to introduce risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for this next system. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Sunday afternoon across portions of the Southern High Plains, and may re-emerge later in the upcoming work week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of precipitation chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels will limit the potential for widespread fire weather concerns. ...D4/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Confidence continues to increase regarding the fire weather potential Sunday afternoon as an upper-level trough settles into the Four Corners region. Medium to long-range guidance has maintained a strong signal for a deepening lee cyclone over the CO/KS region Sunday afternoon amid strengthening upper-level flow over the central/southern Rockies. This will establish a swath of strong southwesterly flow across eastern NM into western TX behind a sharpening dryline. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be conditional on the progression of the dryline by peak heating, with some solutions hinting that this boundary may reach into western/central OK and north/northwest TX by 21 UTC. Relative humidity values may not be quite as low as previous critical fire weather events, but most deterministic/ensemble solutions (including bias-corrected guidance) hint that RH minimums near 20% should be fairly common. ERC values are currently near the 50th percentile, and light scattered rainfall is noted over western TX as of 20 UTC Thursday. However, even with modest RH reductions (by southern Plains standards) and marginal ERC values, an excessive loading of fine, 1-hour fuels combined with high probability for 20-30 mph winds and ~20% RH should support a wind-driven fire weather concern. Higher risk probabilities have been introduced from far southeast NM into western TX to delineate where guidance currently indicates the best overlap of the low-level thermal ridge and the mid/upper-level jet maximum should occur. This region will see the highest potential for sub-20% RH as well as gusts upwards of 40-60 mph. Further forecast refinements are anticipated as confidence in finer-scale details improves. Heading into the upcoming work week, more regional fire weather concerns may develop across southwest TX and the Rio Grande river valley within a dry post-frontal regime. A more robust fire concern is beginning to emerge around the D8/Thursday time frame when a second upper trough could move into the region. Confidence in surface details is too low at this range to introduce risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for this next system. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Sunday afternoon across portions of the Southern High Plains, and may re-emerge later in the upcoming work week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of precipitation chances, cool temperatures, and/or unreceptive fuels will limit the potential for widespread fire weather concerns. ...D4/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Confidence continues to increase regarding the fire weather potential Sunday afternoon as an upper-level trough settles into the Four Corners region. Medium to long-range guidance has maintained a strong signal for a deepening lee cyclone over the CO/KS region Sunday afternoon amid strengthening upper-level flow over the central/southern Rockies. This will establish a swath of strong southwesterly flow across eastern NM into western TX behind a sharpening dryline. The eastern extent of the fire weather threat will be conditional on the progression of the dryline by peak heating, with some solutions hinting that this boundary may reach into western/central OK and north/northwest TX by 21 UTC. Relative humidity values may not be quite as low as previous critical fire weather events, but most deterministic/ensemble solutions (including bias-corrected guidance) hint that RH minimums near 20% should be fairly common. ERC values are currently near the 50th percentile, and light scattered rainfall is noted over western TX as of 20 UTC Thursday. However, even with modest RH reductions (by southern Plains standards) and marginal ERC values, an excessive loading of fine, 1-hour fuels combined with high probability for 20-30 mph winds and ~20% RH should support a wind-driven fire weather concern. Higher risk probabilities have been introduced from far southeast NM into western TX to delineate where guidance currently indicates the best overlap of the low-level thermal ridge and the mid/upper-level jet maximum should occur. This region will see the highest potential for sub-20% RH as well as gusts upwards of 40-60 mph. Further forecast refinements are anticipated as confidence in finer-scale details improves. Heading into the upcoming work week, more regional fire weather concerns may develop across southwest TX and the Rio Grande river valley within a dry post-frontal regime. A more robust fire concern is beginning to emerge around the D8/Thursday time frame when a second upper trough could move into the region. Confidence in surface details is too low at this range to introduce risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for this next system. ..Moore.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more