Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while rapidly traversing the Southwest tomorrow/Saturday, resulting in intense surface low development over the central High Plains. While strong low-level southerly flow will be predominantly moist across the Plains states, favorable trajectories will support dry surface air emanating from the Chihuahuan desert. By afternoon peak heating, 15 mph sustained southerly winds and 15 percent RH should overlap with modestly dry fuels for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while rapidly traversing the Southwest tomorrow/Saturday, resulting in intense surface low development over the central High Plains. While strong low-level southerly flow will be predominantly moist across the Plains states, favorable trajectories will support dry surface air emanating from the Chihuahuan desert. By afternoon peak heating, 15 mph sustained southerly winds and 15 percent RH should overlap with modestly dry fuels for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while rapidly traversing the Southwest tomorrow/Saturday, resulting in intense surface low development over the central High Plains. While strong low-level southerly flow will be predominantly moist across the Plains states, favorable trajectories will support dry surface air emanating from the Chihuahuan desert. By afternoon peak heating, 15 mph sustained southerly winds and 15 percent RH should overlap with modestly dry fuels for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while rapidly traversing the Southwest tomorrow/Saturday, resulting in intense surface low development over the central High Plains. While strong low-level southerly flow will be predominantly moist across the Plains states, favorable trajectories will support dry surface air emanating from the Chihuahuan desert. By afternoon peak heating, 15 mph sustained southerly winds and 15 percent RH should overlap with modestly dry fuels for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while rapidly traversing the Southwest tomorrow/Saturday, resulting in intense surface low development over the central High Plains. While strong low-level southerly flow will be predominantly moist across the Plains states, favorable trajectories will support dry surface air emanating from the Chihuahuan desert. By afternoon peak heating, 15 mph sustained southerly winds and 15 percent RH should overlap with modestly dry fuels for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while rapidly traversing the Southwest tomorrow/Saturday, resulting in intense surface low development over the central High Plains. While strong low-level southerly flow will be predominantly moist across the Plains states, favorable trajectories will support dry surface air emanating from the Chihuahuan desert. By afternoon peak heating, 15 mph sustained southerly winds and 15 percent RH should overlap with modestly dry fuels for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the eastern third of the CONUS today, supporting widespread low-level moisture transport east of the Mississippi River, where appreciable rainfall accumulations are possible in spots. Farther west, deep-layer northwesterly flow behind the aforementioned mid-level trough will encourage downslope flow across portions of far southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas. Here, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH and modestly receptive fuels will support some potential for wildfire spread during the afternoon, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the eastern third of the CONUS today, supporting widespread low-level moisture transport east of the Mississippi River, where appreciable rainfall accumulations are possible in spots. Farther west, deep-layer northwesterly flow behind the aforementioned mid-level trough will encourage downslope flow across portions of far southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas. Here, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH and modestly receptive fuels will support some potential for wildfire spread during the afternoon, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the eastern third of the CONUS today, supporting widespread low-level moisture transport east of the Mississippi River, where appreciable rainfall accumulations are possible in spots. Farther west, deep-layer northwesterly flow behind the aforementioned mid-level trough will encourage downslope flow across portions of far southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas. Here, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH and modestly receptive fuels will support some potential for wildfire spread during the afternoon, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the eastern third of the CONUS today, supporting widespread low-level moisture transport east of the Mississippi River, where appreciable rainfall accumulations are possible in spots. Farther west, deep-layer northwesterly flow behind the aforementioned mid-level trough will encourage downslope flow across portions of far southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas. Here, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH and modestly receptive fuels will support some potential for wildfire spread during the afternoon, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the eastern third of the CONUS today, supporting widespread low-level moisture transport east of the Mississippi River, where appreciable rainfall accumulations are possible in spots. Farther west, deep-layer northwesterly flow behind the aforementioned mid-level trough will encourage downslope flow across portions of far southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas. Here, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH and modestly receptive fuels will support some potential for wildfire spread during the afternoon, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the eastern third of the CONUS today, supporting widespread low-level moisture transport east of the Mississippi River, where appreciable rainfall accumulations are possible in spots. Farther west, deep-layer northwesterly flow behind the aforementioned mid-level trough will encourage downslope flow across portions of far southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas. Here, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH and modestly receptive fuels will support some potential for wildfire spread during the afternoon, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the eastern third of the CONUS today, supporting widespread low-level moisture transport east of the Mississippi River, where appreciable rainfall accumulations are possible in spots. Farther west, deep-layer northwesterly flow behind the aforementioned mid-level trough will encourage downslope flow across portions of far southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas. Here, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH and modestly receptive fuels will support some potential for wildfire spread during the afternoon, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the eastern third of the CONUS today, supporting widespread low-level moisture transport east of the Mississippi River, where appreciable rainfall accumulations are possible in spots. Farther west, deep-layer northwesterly flow behind the aforementioned mid-level trough will encourage downslope flow across portions of far southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas. Here, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH and modestly receptive fuels will support some potential for wildfire spread during the afternoon, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the eastern third of the CONUS today, supporting widespread low-level moisture transport east of the Mississippi River, where appreciable rainfall accumulations are possible in spots. Farther west, deep-layer northwesterly flow behind the aforementioned mid-level trough will encourage downslope flow across portions of far southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos region of Texas. Here, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH and modestly receptive fuels will support some potential for wildfire spread during the afternoon, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0278 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0278 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Areas affected...portions of east-central Minnesota into central Wisconsin Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 220346Z - 220645Z SUMMARY...A few instances of 1+ inch/hr snowfall rates are possible over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A 500 mb jet streak is overspreading the Upper MS Valley, supporting strong low-level warm-air advection within a sub-freezing troposphere. As a result, 700 mb frontogenesis is increasing along the MN/WI border, boosting deep-layer ascent within a deepening dendritic growth zone. Multiple surface observations have recently shown heavy snow ongoing across Sherburne to Chisago Counties in Minnesota. Additional instances of heavy snow are likely along the 700 mb frontogenesis axis over the next few hours, with 1+ inch/hr snowfall rates and instances of reduced visibility possible. ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 45549426 45609255 45239024 44578849 44328835 44098865 44108963 44229088 44579227 44959342 45249443 45549426 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA/THE KEYS...AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across parts of south Florida and the Keys, along with eastern North Carolina/the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis... Two upper troughs will advance across the eastern states on Saturday, with the southern-stream upper trough progressing over the Southeast and eventually the western Atlantic through Saturday evening. An initially weak surface low over GA should redevelop along/near the Outer Banks of NC by Saturday afternoon. Multiple surface lows will probably form through Saturday evening along the length of a cold front given the split-flow pattern aloft and various sources of large-scale ascent. Greater low-level moisture should remain confined to parts of south FL and the Keys, along with eastern NC/the Outer Banks. ...South Florida and the Keys... A parade of thunderstorm clusters over the Gulf of Mexico will likely impact parts of the FL Peninsula and the Keys in the Day 1 period. This convection should tend to hamper daytime heating and related destabilization across south FL Saturday morning as a southern-stream upper trough moves eastward. An effective front/convectively reinforced outflow boundary will probably be located over the Keys/FL Straits at the start of the period. The potential for weak to moderate instability to develop north of this boundary remains questionable. Still, some guidance suggests this may occur, especially if an overnight/early Saturday morning MCS from the Day 1 time frame remains farther north towards the east-central Gulf and central FL Peninsula. Enhanced mid-level flow of 50-70 kt attendant to the upper trough and related strong deep-level shear will conditionally support robust/severe thunderstorms, should they develop across south FL and the Keys. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the greatest threat with any thunderstorm clusters that can persist and remain surface based. But, sufficient low-level shear should also be present Saturday morning to pose some risk for a tornado. This isolated severe threat will shift quickly offshore by Saturday afternoon in tandem with an eastward-moving cold front. ...Eastern North Carolina... At least low 60s surface dewpoints will attempt to advance inland across parts of eastern NC Saturday in tandem with a developing surface low. Greater instability is generally expected to remain offshore, but weak MLCAPE may develop over this region with filtered daytime heating behind early-day convection. This morning convection will be in a strongly sheared, but only modestly unstable environment. If additional thunderstorms can form along/ahead of the cold front, they could become strong to severe while posing an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. ..Gleason.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA/THE KEYS...AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across parts of south Florida and the Keys, along with eastern North Carolina/the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis... Two upper troughs will advance across the eastern states on Saturday, with the southern-stream upper trough progressing over the Southeast and eventually the western Atlantic through Saturday evening. An initially weak surface low over GA should redevelop along/near the Outer Banks of NC by Saturday afternoon. Multiple surface lows will probably form through Saturday evening along the length of a cold front given the split-flow pattern aloft and various sources of large-scale ascent. Greater low-level moisture should remain confined to parts of south FL and the Keys, along with eastern NC/the Outer Banks. ...South Florida and the Keys... A parade of thunderstorm clusters over the Gulf of Mexico will likely impact parts of the FL Peninsula and the Keys in the Day 1 period. This convection should tend to hamper daytime heating and related destabilization across south FL Saturday morning as a southern-stream upper trough moves eastward. An effective front/convectively reinforced outflow boundary will probably be located over the Keys/FL Straits at the start of the period. The potential for weak to moderate instability to develop north of this boundary remains questionable. Still, some guidance suggests this may occur, especially if an overnight/early Saturday morning MCS from the Day 1 time frame remains farther north towards the east-central Gulf and central FL Peninsula. Enhanced mid-level flow of 50-70 kt attendant to the upper trough and related strong deep-level shear will conditionally support robust/severe thunderstorms, should they develop across south FL and the Keys. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the greatest threat with any thunderstorm clusters that can persist and remain surface based. But, sufficient low-level shear should also be present Saturday morning to pose some risk for a tornado. This isolated severe threat will shift quickly offshore by Saturday afternoon in tandem with an eastward-moving cold front. ...Eastern North Carolina... At least low 60s surface dewpoints will attempt to advance inland across parts of eastern NC Saturday in tandem with a developing surface low. Greater instability is generally expected to remain offshore, but weak MLCAPE may develop over this region with filtered daytime heating behind early-day convection. This morning convection will be in a strongly sheared, but only modestly unstable environment. If additional thunderstorms can form along/ahead of the cold front, they could become strong to severe while posing an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. ..Gleason.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA/THE KEYS...AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across parts of south Florida and the Keys, along with eastern North Carolina/the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis... Two upper troughs will advance across the eastern states on Saturday, with the southern-stream upper trough progressing over the Southeast and eventually the western Atlantic through Saturday evening. An initially weak surface low over GA should redevelop along/near the Outer Banks of NC by Saturday afternoon. Multiple surface lows will probably form through Saturday evening along the length of a cold front given the split-flow pattern aloft and various sources of large-scale ascent. Greater low-level moisture should remain confined to parts of south FL and the Keys, along with eastern NC/the Outer Banks. ...South Florida and the Keys... A parade of thunderstorm clusters over the Gulf of Mexico will likely impact parts of the FL Peninsula and the Keys in the Day 1 period. This convection should tend to hamper daytime heating and related destabilization across south FL Saturday morning as a southern-stream upper trough moves eastward. An effective front/convectively reinforced outflow boundary will probably be located over the Keys/FL Straits at the start of the period. The potential for weak to moderate instability to develop north of this boundary remains questionable. Still, some guidance suggests this may occur, especially if an overnight/early Saturday morning MCS from the Day 1 time frame remains farther north towards the east-central Gulf and central FL Peninsula. Enhanced mid-level flow of 50-70 kt attendant to the upper trough and related strong deep-level shear will conditionally support robust/severe thunderstorms, should they develop across south FL and the Keys. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the greatest threat with any thunderstorm clusters that can persist and remain surface based. But, sufficient low-level shear should also be present Saturday morning to pose some risk for a tornado. This isolated severe threat will shift quickly offshore by Saturday afternoon in tandem with an eastward-moving cold front. ...Eastern North Carolina... At least low 60s surface dewpoints will attempt to advance inland across parts of eastern NC Saturday in tandem with a developing surface low. Greater instability is generally expected to remain offshore, but weak MLCAPE may develop over this region with filtered daytime heating behind early-day convection. This morning convection will be in a strongly sheared, but only modestly unstable environment. If additional thunderstorms can form along/ahead of the cold front, they could become strong to severe while posing an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. ..Gleason.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA/THE KEYS...AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across parts of south Florida and the Keys, along with eastern North Carolina/the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis... Two upper troughs will advance across the eastern states on Saturday, with the southern-stream upper trough progressing over the Southeast and eventually the western Atlantic through Saturday evening. An initially weak surface low over GA should redevelop along/near the Outer Banks of NC by Saturday afternoon. Multiple surface lows will probably form through Saturday evening along the length of a cold front given the split-flow pattern aloft and various sources of large-scale ascent. Greater low-level moisture should remain confined to parts of south FL and the Keys, along with eastern NC/the Outer Banks. ...South Florida and the Keys... A parade of thunderstorm clusters over the Gulf of Mexico will likely impact parts of the FL Peninsula and the Keys in the Day 1 period. This convection should tend to hamper daytime heating and related destabilization across south FL Saturday morning as a southern-stream upper trough moves eastward. An effective front/convectively reinforced outflow boundary will probably be located over the Keys/FL Straits at the start of the period. The potential for weak to moderate instability to develop north of this boundary remains questionable. Still, some guidance suggests this may occur, especially if an overnight/early Saturday morning MCS from the Day 1 time frame remains farther north towards the east-central Gulf and central FL Peninsula. Enhanced mid-level flow of 50-70 kt attendant to the upper trough and related strong deep-level shear will conditionally support robust/severe thunderstorms, should they develop across south FL and the Keys. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the greatest threat with any thunderstorm clusters that can persist and remain surface based. But, sufficient low-level shear should also be present Saturday morning to pose some risk for a tornado. This isolated severe threat will shift quickly offshore by Saturday afternoon in tandem with an eastward-moving cold front. ...Eastern North Carolina... At least low 60s surface dewpoints will attempt to advance inland across parts of eastern NC Saturday in tandem with a developing surface low. Greater instability is generally expected to remain offshore, but weak MLCAPE may develop over this region with filtered daytime heating behind early-day convection. This morning convection will be in a strongly sheared, but only modestly unstable environment. If additional thunderstorms can form along/ahead of the cold front, they could become strong to severe while posing an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. ..Gleason.. 03/22/2024 Read more