Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A highly amplified upper trough, with multiple embedded shortwaves, appears likely to continue progressing eastward across the western/central CONUS early next week. One such shortwave trough should move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest while becoming increasingly displaced from the surface warm sector. Another, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to advance across northern Mexico and the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. A consensus of the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance shows a somewhat slower ejection of the southern-stream shortwave trough, and related placement of a surface cold front. Accordingly, greater low-level moisture may not advance as far northward across the lower MS Valley as previously expected. The 15% severe delineation for Monday has been adjusted accordingly, and highlights the area where confidence is greatest that weak, but sufficient, instability will overlap with strong low-level and deep-layer shear. A risk of supercells/bowing line segments and tornadoes should exist Monday through Monday night from parts of east TX into LA/MS and vicinity, along and south of a warm front and secondary surface low development. The embedded shortwave trough should move north-northeastward across the lower MS Valley into the TN/OH Valleys on Tuesday. Greater low-level moisture (60s surface dewpoints) will likely remain confined to portions of the central Gulf Coast states, namely southeastern LA into southern/central MS/AL and the FL Panhandle. These areas will perhaps have the best potential for a continuation of the Monday severe threat into Tuesday. But, there are concerns that the convection will outpace the low-level moisture return. Will defer the possible inclusion of a 15% severe area for Tuesday across this region to a later outlook, pending greater confidence that convection will be able to maintain its intensity and remain surface-based. For Day 6/Wednesday and beyond, potential for a continuation of the severe threat across parts of the southeastern states becomes even more uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A highly amplified upper trough, with multiple embedded shortwaves, appears likely to continue progressing eastward across the western/central CONUS early next week. One such shortwave trough should move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest while becoming increasingly displaced from the surface warm sector. Another, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to advance across northern Mexico and the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. A consensus of the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance shows a somewhat slower ejection of the southern-stream shortwave trough, and related placement of a surface cold front. Accordingly, greater low-level moisture may not advance as far northward across the lower MS Valley as previously expected. The 15% severe delineation for Monday has been adjusted accordingly, and highlights the area where confidence is greatest that weak, but sufficient, instability will overlap with strong low-level and deep-layer shear. A risk of supercells/bowing line segments and tornadoes should exist Monday through Monday night from parts of east TX into LA/MS and vicinity, along and south of a warm front and secondary surface low development. The embedded shortwave trough should move north-northeastward across the lower MS Valley into the TN/OH Valleys on Tuesday. Greater low-level moisture (60s surface dewpoints) will likely remain confined to portions of the central Gulf Coast states, namely southeastern LA into southern/central MS/AL and the FL Panhandle. These areas will perhaps have the best potential for a continuation of the Monday severe threat into Tuesday. But, there are concerns that the convection will outpace the low-level moisture return. Will defer the possible inclusion of a 15% severe area for Tuesday across this region to a later outlook, pending greater confidence that convection will be able to maintain its intensity and remain surface-based. For Day 6/Wednesday and beyond, potential for a continuation of the severe threat across parts of the southeastern states becomes even more uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A highly amplified upper trough, with multiple embedded shortwaves, appears likely to continue progressing eastward across the western/central CONUS early next week. One such shortwave trough should move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest while becoming increasingly displaced from the surface warm sector. Another, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to advance across northern Mexico and the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. A consensus of the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance shows a somewhat slower ejection of the southern-stream shortwave trough, and related placement of a surface cold front. Accordingly, greater low-level moisture may not advance as far northward across the lower MS Valley as previously expected. The 15% severe delineation for Monday has been adjusted accordingly, and highlights the area where confidence is greatest that weak, but sufficient, instability will overlap with strong low-level and deep-layer shear. A risk of supercells/bowing line segments and tornadoes should exist Monday through Monday night from parts of east TX into LA/MS and vicinity, along and south of a warm front and secondary surface low development. The embedded shortwave trough should move north-northeastward across the lower MS Valley into the TN/OH Valleys on Tuesday. Greater low-level moisture (60s surface dewpoints) will likely remain confined to portions of the central Gulf Coast states, namely southeastern LA into southern/central MS/AL and the FL Panhandle. These areas will perhaps have the best potential for a continuation of the Monday severe threat into Tuesday. But, there are concerns that the convection will outpace the low-level moisture return. Will defer the possible inclusion of a 15% severe area for Tuesday across this region to a later outlook, pending greater confidence that convection will be able to maintain its intensity and remain surface-based. For Day 6/Wednesday and beyond, potential for a continuation of the severe threat across parts of the southeastern states becomes even more uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A highly amplified upper trough, with multiple embedded shortwaves, appears likely to continue progressing eastward across the western/central CONUS early next week. One such shortwave trough should move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest while becoming increasingly displaced from the surface warm sector. Another, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to advance across northern Mexico and the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. A consensus of the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance shows a somewhat slower ejection of the southern-stream shortwave trough, and related placement of a surface cold front. Accordingly, greater low-level moisture may not advance as far northward across the lower MS Valley as previously expected. The 15% severe delineation for Monday has been adjusted accordingly, and highlights the area where confidence is greatest that weak, but sufficient, instability will overlap with strong low-level and deep-layer shear. A risk of supercells/bowing line segments and tornadoes should exist Monday through Monday night from parts of east TX into LA/MS and vicinity, along and south of a warm front and secondary surface low development. The embedded shortwave trough should move north-northeastward across the lower MS Valley into the TN/OH Valleys on Tuesday. Greater low-level moisture (60s surface dewpoints) will likely remain confined to portions of the central Gulf Coast states, namely southeastern LA into southern/central MS/AL and the FL Panhandle. These areas will perhaps have the best potential for a continuation of the Monday severe threat into Tuesday. But, there are concerns that the convection will outpace the low-level moisture return. Will defer the possible inclusion of a 15% severe area for Tuesday across this region to a later outlook, pending greater confidence that convection will be able to maintain its intensity and remain surface-based. For Day 6/Wednesday and beyond, potential for a continuation of the severe threat across parts of the southeastern states becomes even more uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A highly amplified upper trough, with multiple embedded shortwaves, appears likely to continue progressing eastward across the western/central CONUS early next week. One such shortwave trough should move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest while becoming increasingly displaced from the surface warm sector. Another, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to advance across northern Mexico and the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. A consensus of the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance shows a somewhat slower ejection of the southern-stream shortwave trough, and related placement of a surface cold front. Accordingly, greater low-level moisture may not advance as far northward across the lower MS Valley as previously expected. The 15% severe delineation for Monday has been adjusted accordingly, and highlights the area where confidence is greatest that weak, but sufficient, instability will overlap with strong low-level and deep-layer shear. A risk of supercells/bowing line segments and tornadoes should exist Monday through Monday night from parts of east TX into LA/MS and vicinity, along and south of a warm front and secondary surface low development. The embedded shortwave trough should move north-northeastward across the lower MS Valley into the TN/OH Valleys on Tuesday. Greater low-level moisture (60s surface dewpoints) will likely remain confined to portions of the central Gulf Coast states, namely southeastern LA into southern/central MS/AL and the FL Panhandle. These areas will perhaps have the best potential for a continuation of the Monday severe threat into Tuesday. But, there are concerns that the convection will outpace the low-level moisture return. Will defer the possible inclusion of a 15% severe area for Tuesday across this region to a later outlook, pending greater confidence that convection will be able to maintain its intensity and remain surface-based. For Day 6/Wednesday and beyond, potential for a continuation of the severe threat across parts of the southeastern states becomes even more uncertain. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A highly amplified upper trough, with multiple embedded shortwaves, appears likely to continue progressing eastward across the western/central CONUS early next week. One such shortwave trough should move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest while becoming increasingly displaced from the surface warm sector. Another, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to advance across northern Mexico and the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. A consensus of the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance shows a somewhat slower ejection of the southern-stream shortwave trough, and related placement of a surface cold front. Accordingly, greater low-level moisture may not advance as far northward across the lower MS Valley as previously expected. The 15% severe delineation for Monday has been adjusted accordingly, and highlights the area where confidence is greatest that weak, but sufficient, instability will overlap with strong low-level and deep-layer shear. A risk of supercells/bowing line segments and tornadoes should exist Monday through Monday night from parts of east TX into LA/MS and vicinity, along and south of a warm front and secondary surface low development. The embedded shortwave trough should move north-northeastward across the lower MS Valley into the TN/OH Valleys on Tuesday. Greater low-level moisture (60s surface dewpoints) will likely remain confined to portions of the central Gulf Coast states, namely southeastern LA into southern/central MS/AL and the FL Panhandle. These areas will perhaps have the best potential for a continuation of the Monday severe threat into Tuesday. But, there are concerns that the convection will outpace the low-level moisture return. Will defer the possible inclusion of a 15% severe area for Tuesday across this region to a later outlook, pending greater confidence that convection will be able to maintain its intensity and remain surface-based. For Day 6/Wednesday and beyond, potential for a continuation of the severe threat across parts of the southeastern states becomes even more uncertain. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Within large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of the western states, a southern-stream shortwave trough initially over the Southwest and northern Mexico will eject northeastward Sunday across the southern/central Plains. Surface lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur in earnest ahead of this feature across eastern CO into western KS through Sunday evening. A strong low-level mass response will occur ahead of a sharpening dryline extending southward from the surface low across the southern/central High Plains. However, a prior frontal passage over the Gulf of Mexico will likely hinder the northward advance of rich low-level moisture across TX into OK/KS. Still, most guidance suggests that low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints will advance as far north as parts of western/central KS by late Sunday afternoon. Strong ascent and mid-level height falls associated with the ejecting shortwave trough will begin to overspread the modestly unstable warm sector by mid afternoon. Even though instability is forecast to remain fairly weak given the limited low-level moisture, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates aloft should help compensate. Convective initiation along the dryline should occur by late Sunday afternoon or early evening. Deep-layer shear appears sufficiently strong to support supercells and a threat for severe hail with this initial development. The tornado threat is more uncertain given the modest low-level moisture, although a narrow window for a couple tornadoes may exist Sunday evening with any persistent supercell as 0-1-km shear quickly increases in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet. Convection should have a tendency to grow upscale fairly quickly Sunday evening/night as it continues eastward across central KS/OK in the presence of a 45-55 kt southerly low-level jet. This activity should eventually outpace the narrow warm sector, and slowly weaken. But, it should continue to pose some severe threat so long as thunderstorms can remain surface-based. Other thunderstorms posing an isolated hail/wind threat may develop Sunday night across parts of TX as the cold front overtakes the retreating dryline. ..Gleason.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Within large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of the western states, a southern-stream shortwave trough initially over the Southwest and northern Mexico will eject northeastward Sunday across the southern/central Plains. Surface lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur in earnest ahead of this feature across eastern CO into western KS through Sunday evening. A strong low-level mass response will occur ahead of a sharpening dryline extending southward from the surface low across the southern/central High Plains. However, a prior frontal passage over the Gulf of Mexico will likely hinder the northward advance of rich low-level moisture across TX into OK/KS. Still, most guidance suggests that low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints will advance as far north as parts of western/central KS by late Sunday afternoon. Strong ascent and mid-level height falls associated with the ejecting shortwave trough will begin to overspread the modestly unstable warm sector by mid afternoon. Even though instability is forecast to remain fairly weak given the limited low-level moisture, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates aloft should help compensate. Convective initiation along the dryline should occur by late Sunday afternoon or early evening. Deep-layer shear appears sufficiently strong to support supercells and a threat for severe hail with this initial development. The tornado threat is more uncertain given the modest low-level moisture, although a narrow window for a couple tornadoes may exist Sunday evening with any persistent supercell as 0-1-km shear quickly increases in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet. Convection should have a tendency to grow upscale fairly quickly Sunday evening/night as it continues eastward across central KS/OK in the presence of a 45-55 kt southerly low-level jet. This activity should eventually outpace the narrow warm sector, and slowly weaken. But, it should continue to pose some severe threat so long as thunderstorms can remain surface-based. Other thunderstorms posing an isolated hail/wind threat may develop Sunday night across parts of TX as the cold front overtakes the retreating dryline. ..Gleason.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Within large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of the western states, a southern-stream shortwave trough initially over the Southwest and northern Mexico will eject northeastward Sunday across the southern/central Plains. Surface lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur in earnest ahead of this feature across eastern CO into western KS through Sunday evening. A strong low-level mass response will occur ahead of a sharpening dryline extending southward from the surface low across the southern/central High Plains. However, a prior frontal passage over the Gulf of Mexico will likely hinder the northward advance of rich low-level moisture across TX into OK/KS. Still, most guidance suggests that low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints will advance as far north as parts of western/central KS by late Sunday afternoon. Strong ascent and mid-level height falls associated with the ejecting shortwave trough will begin to overspread the modestly unstable warm sector by mid afternoon. Even though instability is forecast to remain fairly weak given the limited low-level moisture, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates aloft should help compensate. Convective initiation along the dryline should occur by late Sunday afternoon or early evening. Deep-layer shear appears sufficiently strong to support supercells and a threat for severe hail with this initial development. The tornado threat is more uncertain given the modest low-level moisture, although a narrow window for a couple tornadoes may exist Sunday evening with any persistent supercell as 0-1-km shear quickly increases in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet. Convection should have a tendency to grow upscale fairly quickly Sunday evening/night as it continues eastward across central KS/OK in the presence of a 45-55 kt southerly low-level jet. This activity should eventually outpace the narrow warm sector, and slowly weaken. But, it should continue to pose some severe threat so long as thunderstorms can remain surface-based. Other thunderstorms posing an isolated hail/wind threat may develop Sunday night across parts of TX as the cold front overtakes the retreating dryline. ..Gleason.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Within large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of the western states, a southern-stream shortwave trough initially over the Southwest and northern Mexico will eject northeastward Sunday across the southern/central Plains. Surface lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur in earnest ahead of this feature across eastern CO into western KS through Sunday evening. A strong low-level mass response will occur ahead of a sharpening dryline extending southward from the surface low across the southern/central High Plains. However, a prior frontal passage over the Gulf of Mexico will likely hinder the northward advance of rich low-level moisture across TX into OK/KS. Still, most guidance suggests that low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints will advance as far north as parts of western/central KS by late Sunday afternoon. Strong ascent and mid-level height falls associated with the ejecting shortwave trough will begin to overspread the modestly unstable warm sector by mid afternoon. Even though instability is forecast to remain fairly weak given the limited low-level moisture, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates aloft should help compensate. Convective initiation along the dryline should occur by late Sunday afternoon or early evening. Deep-layer shear appears sufficiently strong to support supercells and a threat for severe hail with this initial development. The tornado threat is more uncertain given the modest low-level moisture, although a narrow window for a couple tornadoes may exist Sunday evening with any persistent supercell as 0-1-km shear quickly increases in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet. Convection should have a tendency to grow upscale fairly quickly Sunday evening/night as it continues eastward across central KS/OK in the presence of a 45-55 kt southerly low-level jet. This activity should eventually outpace the narrow warm sector, and slowly weaken. But, it should continue to pose some severe threat so long as thunderstorms can remain surface-based. Other thunderstorms posing an isolated hail/wind threat may develop Sunday night across parts of TX as the cold front overtakes the retreating dryline. ..Gleason.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Within large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of the western states, a southern-stream shortwave trough initially over the Southwest and northern Mexico will eject northeastward Sunday across the southern/central Plains. Surface lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur in earnest ahead of this feature across eastern CO into western KS through Sunday evening. A strong low-level mass response will occur ahead of a sharpening dryline extending southward from the surface low across the southern/central High Plains. However, a prior frontal passage over the Gulf of Mexico will likely hinder the northward advance of rich low-level moisture across TX into OK/KS. Still, most guidance suggests that low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints will advance as far north as parts of western/central KS by late Sunday afternoon. Strong ascent and mid-level height falls associated with the ejecting shortwave trough will begin to overspread the modestly unstable warm sector by mid afternoon. Even though instability is forecast to remain fairly weak given the limited low-level moisture, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates aloft should help compensate. Convective initiation along the dryline should occur by late Sunday afternoon or early evening. Deep-layer shear appears sufficiently strong to support supercells and a threat for severe hail with this initial development. The tornado threat is more uncertain given the modest low-level moisture, although a narrow window for a couple tornadoes may exist Sunday evening with any persistent supercell as 0-1-km shear quickly increases in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet. Convection should have a tendency to grow upscale fairly quickly Sunday evening/night as it continues eastward across central KS/OK in the presence of a 45-55 kt southerly low-level jet. This activity should eventually outpace the narrow warm sector, and slowly weaken. But, it should continue to pose some severe threat so long as thunderstorms can remain surface-based. Other thunderstorms posing an isolated hail/wind threat may develop Sunday night across parts of TX as the cold front overtakes the retreating dryline. ..Gleason.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Within large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of the western states, a southern-stream shortwave trough initially over the Southwest and northern Mexico will eject northeastward Sunday across the southern/central Plains. Surface lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur in earnest ahead of this feature across eastern CO into western KS through Sunday evening. A strong low-level mass response will occur ahead of a sharpening dryline extending southward from the surface low across the southern/central High Plains. However, a prior frontal passage over the Gulf of Mexico will likely hinder the northward advance of rich low-level moisture across TX into OK/KS. Still, most guidance suggests that low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints will advance as far north as parts of western/central KS by late Sunday afternoon. Strong ascent and mid-level height falls associated with the ejecting shortwave trough will begin to overspread the modestly unstable warm sector by mid afternoon. Even though instability is forecast to remain fairly weak given the limited low-level moisture, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates aloft should help compensate. Convective initiation along the dryline should occur by late Sunday afternoon or early evening. Deep-layer shear appears sufficiently strong to support supercells and a threat for severe hail with this initial development. The tornado threat is more uncertain given the modest low-level moisture, although a narrow window for a couple tornadoes may exist Sunday evening with any persistent supercell as 0-1-km shear quickly increases in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet. Convection should have a tendency to grow upscale fairly quickly Sunday evening/night as it continues eastward across central KS/OK in the presence of a 45-55 kt southerly low-level jet. This activity should eventually outpace the narrow warm sector, and slowly weaken. But, it should continue to pose some severe threat so long as thunderstorms can remain surface-based. Other thunderstorms posing an isolated hail/wind threat may develop Sunday night across parts of TX as the cold front overtakes the retreating dryline. ..Gleason.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Within large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of the western states, a southern-stream shortwave trough initially over the Southwest and northern Mexico will eject northeastward Sunday across the southern/central Plains. Surface lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur in earnest ahead of this feature across eastern CO into western KS through Sunday evening. A strong low-level mass response will occur ahead of a sharpening dryline extending southward from the surface low across the southern/central High Plains. However, a prior frontal passage over the Gulf of Mexico will likely hinder the northward advance of rich low-level moisture across TX into OK/KS. Still, most guidance suggests that low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints will advance as far north as parts of western/central KS by late Sunday afternoon. Strong ascent and mid-level height falls associated with the ejecting shortwave trough will begin to overspread the modestly unstable warm sector by mid afternoon. Even though instability is forecast to remain fairly weak given the limited low-level moisture, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates aloft should help compensate. Convective initiation along the dryline should occur by late Sunday afternoon or early evening. Deep-layer shear appears sufficiently strong to support supercells and a threat for severe hail with this initial development. The tornado threat is more uncertain given the modest low-level moisture, although a narrow window for a couple tornadoes may exist Sunday evening with any persistent supercell as 0-1-km shear quickly increases in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet. Convection should have a tendency to grow upscale fairly quickly Sunday evening/night as it continues eastward across central KS/OK in the presence of a 45-55 kt southerly low-level jet. This activity should eventually outpace the narrow warm sector, and slowly weaken. But, it should continue to pose some severe threat so long as thunderstorms can remain surface-based. Other thunderstorms posing an isolated hail/wind threat may develop Sunday night across parts of TX as the cold front overtakes the retreating dryline. ..Gleason.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Within large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of the western states, a southern-stream shortwave trough initially over the Southwest and northern Mexico will eject northeastward Sunday across the southern/central Plains. Surface lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur in earnest ahead of this feature across eastern CO into western KS through Sunday evening. A strong low-level mass response will occur ahead of a sharpening dryline extending southward from the surface low across the southern/central High Plains. However, a prior frontal passage over the Gulf of Mexico will likely hinder the northward advance of rich low-level moisture across TX into OK/KS. Still, most guidance suggests that low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints will advance as far north as parts of western/central KS by late Sunday afternoon. Strong ascent and mid-level height falls associated with the ejecting shortwave trough will begin to overspread the modestly unstable warm sector by mid afternoon. Even though instability is forecast to remain fairly weak given the limited low-level moisture, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates aloft should help compensate. Convective initiation along the dryline should occur by late Sunday afternoon or early evening. Deep-layer shear appears sufficiently strong to support supercells and a threat for severe hail with this initial development. The tornado threat is more uncertain given the modest low-level moisture, although a narrow window for a couple tornadoes may exist Sunday evening with any persistent supercell as 0-1-km shear quickly increases in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet. Convection should have a tendency to grow upscale fairly quickly Sunday evening/night as it continues eastward across central KS/OK in the presence of a 45-55 kt southerly low-level jet. This activity should eventually outpace the narrow warm sector, and slowly weaken. But, it should continue to pose some severe threat so long as thunderstorms can remain surface-based. Other thunderstorms posing an isolated hail/wind threat may develop Sunday night across parts of TX as the cold front overtakes the retreating dryline. ..Gleason.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Within large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of the western states, a southern-stream shortwave trough initially over the Southwest and northern Mexico will eject northeastward Sunday across the southern/central Plains. Surface lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur in earnest ahead of this feature across eastern CO into western KS through Sunday evening. A strong low-level mass response will occur ahead of a sharpening dryline extending southward from the surface low across the southern/central High Plains. However, a prior frontal passage over the Gulf of Mexico will likely hinder the northward advance of rich low-level moisture across TX into OK/KS. Still, most guidance suggests that low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints will advance as far north as parts of western/central KS by late Sunday afternoon. Strong ascent and mid-level height falls associated with the ejecting shortwave trough will begin to overspread the modestly unstable warm sector by mid afternoon. Even though instability is forecast to remain fairly weak given the limited low-level moisture, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates aloft should help compensate. Convective initiation along the dryline should occur by late Sunday afternoon or early evening. Deep-layer shear appears sufficiently strong to support supercells and a threat for severe hail with this initial development. The tornado threat is more uncertain given the modest low-level moisture, although a narrow window for a couple tornadoes may exist Sunday evening with any persistent supercell as 0-1-km shear quickly increases in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet. Convection should have a tendency to grow upscale fairly quickly Sunday evening/night as it continues eastward across central KS/OK in the presence of a 45-55 kt southerly low-level jet. This activity should eventually outpace the narrow warm sector, and slowly weaken. But, it should continue to pose some severe threat so long as thunderstorms can remain surface-based. Other thunderstorms posing an isolated hail/wind threat may develop Sunday night across parts of TX as the cold front overtakes the retreating dryline. ..Gleason.. 03/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop Sunday afternoon and persist through Sunday night across parts of the southern/central Plains. ...Southern/Central Plains... Within large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of the western states, a southern-stream shortwave trough initially over the Southwest and northern Mexico will eject northeastward Sunday across the southern/central Plains. Surface lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur in earnest ahead of this feature across eastern CO into western KS through Sunday evening. A strong low-level mass response will occur ahead of a sharpening dryline extending southward from the surface low across the southern/central High Plains. However, a prior frontal passage over the Gulf of Mexico will likely hinder the northward advance of rich low-level moisture across TX into OK/KS. Still, most guidance suggests that low to perhaps mid 50s surface dewpoints will advance as far north as parts of western/central KS by late Sunday afternoon. Strong ascent and mid-level height falls associated with the ejecting shortwave trough will begin to overspread the modestly unstable warm sector by mid afternoon. Even though instability is forecast to remain fairly weak given the limited low-level moisture, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates aloft should help compensate. Convective initiation along the dryline should occur by late Sunday afternoon or early evening. Deep-layer shear appears sufficiently strong to support supercells and a threat for severe hail with this initial development. The tornado threat is more uncertain given the modest low-level moisture, although a narrow window for a couple tornadoes may exist Sunday evening with any persistent supercell as 0-1-km shear quickly increases in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet. Convection should have a tendency to grow upscale fairly quickly Sunday evening/night as it continues eastward across central KS/OK in the presence of a 45-55 kt southerly low-level jet. This activity should eventually outpace the narrow warm sector, and slowly weaken. But, it should continue to pose some severe threat so long as thunderstorms can remain surface-based. Other thunderstorms posing an isolated hail/wind threat may develop Sunday night across parts of TX as the cold front overtakes the retreating dryline. ..Gleason.. 03/22/2024 Read more

MD 0279 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR IMMEDIATE COAST OF SOUTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0279 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Areas affected...Immediate coast of southeast TX and southwest LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 220559Z - 220800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A rather confined corridor of strong to severe wind gusts from 55-70 mph will be possible along the immediate coast of southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana through the pre-dawn hours. A watch is not expected given the extremely limited spatial extent of the threat over land. DISCUSSION...A small MCS with an embedded bowing structure will likely persist eastward over the next several hours along a portion of the northwest Gulf Coast. The northern part of this bow is elevated, with the southern part crossing into the northern edge of surface-based instability across the south Houston metro/Galveston Bay area where surface dew points are in the mid 60s. This bowing MCS has a history of 40-45 kt wind gusts across the western Houston Metro Area. Convective outflow from a weaker thunderstorm cluster over the Lake Charles area may aid in intensifying the bowing structure amid a low-level vorticity-rich environment, a scenario generally supported by evening CAM guidance. The apex of the slightly elevated bow may hug the immediate coastline through the pre-dawn hours with stronger gusts/waterspouts likely offshore. ..Grams/Edwards.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... LAT...LON 30039511 29859457 29849410 29909352 29999318 29789211 29669154 29479136 29299140 29179166 29139201 29229437 29139504 29379529 29589519 30039511 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while rapidly traversing the Southwest tomorrow/Saturday, resulting in intense surface low development over the central High Plains. While strong low-level southerly flow will be predominantly moist across the Plains states, favorable trajectories will support dry surface air emanating from the Chihuahuan desert. By afternoon peak heating, 15 mph sustained southerly winds and 15 percent RH should overlap with modestly dry fuels for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while rapidly traversing the Southwest tomorrow/Saturday, resulting in intense surface low development over the central High Plains. While strong low-level southerly flow will be predominantly moist across the Plains states, favorable trajectories will support dry surface air emanating from the Chihuahuan desert. By afternoon peak heating, 15 mph sustained southerly winds and 15 percent RH should overlap with modestly dry fuels for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while rapidly traversing the Southwest tomorrow/Saturday, resulting in intense surface low development over the central High Plains. While strong low-level southerly flow will be predominantly moist across the Plains states, favorable trajectories will support dry surface air emanating from the Chihuahuan desert. By afternoon peak heating, 15 mph sustained southerly winds and 15 percent RH should overlap with modestly dry fuels for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more