Severe Storms

WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 57 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..03/21/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-039-057-089-123-157-175-239-285-321-391-409-469-481- 211340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BRAZORIA CALHOUN COLORADO DEWITT FORT BEND GOLIAD JACKSON LAVACA MATAGORDA REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WHARTON GMZ236-237-255-330-350-211340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COPANO ARANSAS AND REDFISH BAYS SAN ANTONIO MESQUITE AND ESPIRITU SANTO BAYS COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 57 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..03/21/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-039-057-089-123-157-175-239-285-321-391-409-469-481- 211340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BRAZORIA CALHOUN COLORADO DEWITT FORT BEND GOLIAD JACKSON LAVACA MATAGORDA REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WHARTON GMZ236-237-255-330-350-211340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COPANO ARANSAS AND REDFISH BAYS SAN ANTONIO MESQUITE AND ESPIRITU SANTO BAYS COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 57 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..03/21/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-039-057-089-123-157-175-239-285-321-391-409-469-481- 211340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BRAZORIA CALHOUN COLORADO DEWITT FORT BEND GOLIAD JACKSON LAVACA MATAGORDA REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WHARTON GMZ236-237-255-330-350-211340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COPANO ARANSAS AND REDFISH BAYS SAN ANTONIO MESQUITE AND ESPIRITU SANTO BAYS COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 57 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..03/21/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-039-057-089-123-157-175-239-285-321-391-409-469-481- 211340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BRAZORIA CALHOUN COLORADO DEWITT FORT BEND GOLIAD JACKSON LAVACA MATAGORDA REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WHARTON GMZ236-237-255-330-350-211340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COPANO ARANSAS AND REDFISH BAYS SAN ANTONIO MESQUITE AND ESPIRITU SANTO BAYS COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 57 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 211125Z - 211800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 57 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 625 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Middle Texas Coastal Plain Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 625 AM until 100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage/intensity this morning while spreading east and northeastward near the middle Texas Coast. A couple of slightly elevated supercells will be possible, with the potential to produce 1-2 inch diameter hail and isolated damaging gusts near 60 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles south of Victoria TX to 45 miles northwest of Angleton TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26020. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0274 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0274 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Areas affected...Middle TX Coastal Plain Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 211018Z - 211215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is still expected to occur across parts of the Middle Texas Coastal Plain through mid-morning. Environment remains conditionally favorable for a couple supercells, with a primary threat of large hail. DISCUSSION...Earlier expectations for sustained thunderstorm development across the Middle TX Coastal Plain have failed to materialize appreciably over land. It appears the remnant elevated mixed layer has provided sufficient capping to deter storms, west of the northwest Gulf. But with a 30-35 kt low-level jet per the CRP VWP, in conjunction with numerous light showers, at some point deep convection should become sustained. This scenario continues to be well-advertised, albeit delayed, in early morning guidance. Once this occurs, the environment should be characterized by favorable deep-layer speed shear and an elongated hodograph, supporting mid-level updraft rotation. Large hail still appears to be the primary threat with sustained convection tending to be at least slightly elevated, north of the upper 60s surface dew points plume that has reached Aransas Bay. ..Grams/Thompson.. 03/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 27589692 28289809 29039791 29689656 29459557 29039509 28709509 27589692 Read more

WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0057 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing, digging inland of the U.S. Pacific coast this coming weekend with at least a couple of significant embedded short wave perturbations, will progress through much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through early next week. As the lead short wave trough emerges from the Southwest on Sunday, rather strong surface cyclogenesis is forecast to proceed from the lee of the Front Range into the adjacent high plains. Although it still appears that low-level moisture return to the developing warm sector will be on the lower margins for severe thunderstorm development, steepening lapse rates will probably compensate, in the presence of intensifying wind fields and strong forcing for ascent to the east of the deepening low. As a mid/upper jet streak, perhaps including southwesterly winds increasing to 90-100 kt, crosses the southern Texas Panhandle through western Oklahoma by Sunday evening, it appears that the environment may become conducive to organized convective development. This probably will include a few supercells initially, then a narrow evolving squall line posing increasing risk for severe winds, in addition to large hail and couple of tornadoes, before weakening late Sunday evening. The deep, but perhaps weakening cyclone, is then forecast to migrate through the lower Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest on Monday, but the primary severe weather potential seems likely to shift into the lower Mississippi Valley late Monday into Monday night. This is where forcing near a secondary frontal wave, as a trailing mid-level short wave emerges from the Southwest, may interact with better low-level moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico and support renewed vigorous thunderstorm development. By Monday evening, if not earlier, this probably will again include a risk for supercells, and a developing squall line, which may maintain strength through the evening before weakening overnight. Thereafter, pattern developments become more unclear, but a strong mid/upper jet emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, with a number of amplifying waves, is forecast to spread across the southern mid-latitudes of the U.S., and one or two may be accompanied by renewed cyclogenesis to the east of the Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing, digging inland of the U.S. Pacific coast this coming weekend with at least a couple of significant embedded short wave perturbations, will progress through much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through early next week. As the lead short wave trough emerges from the Southwest on Sunday, rather strong surface cyclogenesis is forecast to proceed from the lee of the Front Range into the adjacent high plains. Although it still appears that low-level moisture return to the developing warm sector will be on the lower margins for severe thunderstorm development, steepening lapse rates will probably compensate, in the presence of intensifying wind fields and strong forcing for ascent to the east of the deepening low. As a mid/upper jet streak, perhaps including southwesterly winds increasing to 90-100 kt, crosses the southern Texas Panhandle through western Oklahoma by Sunday evening, it appears that the environment may become conducive to organized convective development. This probably will include a few supercells initially, then a narrow evolving squall line posing increasing risk for severe winds, in addition to large hail and couple of tornadoes, before weakening late Sunday evening. The deep, but perhaps weakening cyclone, is then forecast to migrate through the lower Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest on Monday, but the primary severe weather potential seems likely to shift into the lower Mississippi Valley late Monday into Monday night. This is where forcing near a secondary frontal wave, as a trailing mid-level short wave emerges from the Southwest, may interact with better low-level moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico and support renewed vigorous thunderstorm development. By Monday evening, if not earlier, this probably will again include a risk for supercells, and a developing squall line, which may maintain strength through the evening before weakening overnight. Thereafter, pattern developments become more unclear, but a strong mid/upper jet emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, with a number of amplifying waves, is forecast to spread across the southern mid-latitudes of the U.S., and one or two may be accompanied by renewed cyclogenesis to the east of the Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing, digging inland of the U.S. Pacific coast this coming weekend with at least a couple of significant embedded short wave perturbations, will progress through much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through early next week. As the lead short wave trough emerges from the Southwest on Sunday, rather strong surface cyclogenesis is forecast to proceed from the lee of the Front Range into the adjacent high plains. Although it still appears that low-level moisture return to the developing warm sector will be on the lower margins for severe thunderstorm development, steepening lapse rates will probably compensate, in the presence of intensifying wind fields and strong forcing for ascent to the east of the deepening low. As a mid/upper jet streak, perhaps including southwesterly winds increasing to 90-100 kt, crosses the southern Texas Panhandle through western Oklahoma by Sunday evening, it appears that the environment may become conducive to organized convective development. This probably will include a few supercells initially, then a narrow evolving squall line posing increasing risk for severe winds, in addition to large hail and couple of tornadoes, before weakening late Sunday evening. The deep, but perhaps weakening cyclone, is then forecast to migrate through the lower Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest on Monday, but the primary severe weather potential seems likely to shift into the lower Mississippi Valley late Monday into Monday night. This is where forcing near a secondary frontal wave, as a trailing mid-level short wave emerges from the Southwest, may interact with better low-level moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico and support renewed vigorous thunderstorm development. By Monday evening, if not earlier, this probably will again include a risk for supercells, and a developing squall line, which may maintain strength through the evening before weakening overnight. Thereafter, pattern developments become more unclear, but a strong mid/upper jet emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, with a number of amplifying waves, is forecast to spread across the southern mid-latitudes of the U.S., and one or two may be accompanied by renewed cyclogenesis to the east of the Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing, digging inland of the U.S. Pacific coast this coming weekend with at least a couple of significant embedded short wave perturbations, will progress through much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through early next week. As the lead short wave trough emerges from the Southwest on Sunday, rather strong surface cyclogenesis is forecast to proceed from the lee of the Front Range into the adjacent high plains. Although it still appears that low-level moisture return to the developing warm sector will be on the lower margins for severe thunderstorm development, steepening lapse rates will probably compensate, in the presence of intensifying wind fields and strong forcing for ascent to the east of the deepening low. As a mid/upper jet streak, perhaps including southwesterly winds increasing to 90-100 kt, crosses the southern Texas Panhandle through western Oklahoma by Sunday evening, it appears that the environment may become conducive to organized convective development. This probably will include a few supercells initially, then a narrow evolving squall line posing increasing risk for severe winds, in addition to large hail and couple of tornadoes, before weakening late Sunday evening. The deep, but perhaps weakening cyclone, is then forecast to migrate through the lower Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest on Monday, but the primary severe weather potential seems likely to shift into the lower Mississippi Valley late Monday into Monday night. This is where forcing near a secondary frontal wave, as a trailing mid-level short wave emerges from the Southwest, may interact with better low-level moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico and support renewed vigorous thunderstorm development. By Monday evening, if not earlier, this probably will again include a risk for supercells, and a developing squall line, which may maintain strength through the evening before weakening overnight. Thereafter, pattern developments become more unclear, but a strong mid/upper jet emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, with a number of amplifying waves, is forecast to spread across the southern mid-latitudes of the U.S., and one or two may be accompanied by renewed cyclogenesis to the east of the Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing, digging inland of the U.S. Pacific coast this coming weekend with at least a couple of significant embedded short wave perturbations, will progress through much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through early next week. As the lead short wave trough emerges from the Southwest on Sunday, rather strong surface cyclogenesis is forecast to proceed from the lee of the Front Range into the adjacent high plains. Although it still appears that low-level moisture return to the developing warm sector will be on the lower margins for severe thunderstorm development, steepening lapse rates will probably compensate, in the presence of intensifying wind fields and strong forcing for ascent to the east of the deepening low. As a mid/upper jet streak, perhaps including southwesterly winds increasing to 90-100 kt, crosses the southern Texas Panhandle through western Oklahoma by Sunday evening, it appears that the environment may become conducive to organized convective development. This probably will include a few supercells initially, then a narrow evolving squall line posing increasing risk for severe winds, in addition to large hail and couple of tornadoes, before weakening late Sunday evening. The deep, but perhaps weakening cyclone, is then forecast to migrate through the lower Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest on Monday, but the primary severe weather potential seems likely to shift into the lower Mississippi Valley late Monday into Monday night. This is where forcing near a secondary frontal wave, as a trailing mid-level short wave emerges from the Southwest, may interact with better low-level moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico and support renewed vigorous thunderstorm development. By Monday evening, if not earlier, this probably will again include a risk for supercells, and a developing squall line, which may maintain strength through the evening before weakening overnight. Thereafter, pattern developments become more unclear, but a strong mid/upper jet emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, with a number of amplifying waves, is forecast to spread across the southern mid-latitudes of the U.S., and one or two may be accompanied by renewed cyclogenesis to the east of the Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing, digging inland of the U.S. Pacific coast this coming weekend with at least a couple of significant embedded short wave perturbations, will progress through much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through early next week. As the lead short wave trough emerges from the Southwest on Sunday, rather strong surface cyclogenesis is forecast to proceed from the lee of the Front Range into the adjacent high plains. Although it still appears that low-level moisture return to the developing warm sector will be on the lower margins for severe thunderstorm development, steepening lapse rates will probably compensate, in the presence of intensifying wind fields and strong forcing for ascent to the east of the deepening low. As a mid/upper jet streak, perhaps including southwesterly winds increasing to 90-100 kt, crosses the southern Texas Panhandle through western Oklahoma by Sunday evening, it appears that the environment may become conducive to organized convective development. This probably will include a few supercells initially, then a narrow evolving squall line posing increasing risk for severe winds, in addition to large hail and couple of tornadoes, before weakening late Sunday evening. The deep, but perhaps weakening cyclone, is then forecast to migrate through the lower Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest on Monday, but the primary severe weather potential seems likely to shift into the lower Mississippi Valley late Monday into Monday night. This is where forcing near a secondary frontal wave, as a trailing mid-level short wave emerges from the Southwest, may interact with better low-level moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico and support renewed vigorous thunderstorm development. By Monday evening, if not earlier, this probably will again include a risk for supercells, and a developing squall line, which may maintain strength through the evening before weakening overnight. Thereafter, pattern developments become more unclear, but a strong mid/upper jet emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, with a number of amplifying waves, is forecast to spread across the southern mid-latitudes of the U.S., and one or two may be accompanied by renewed cyclogenesis to the east of the Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing, digging inland of the U.S. Pacific coast this coming weekend with at least a couple of significant embedded short wave perturbations, will progress through much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through early next week. As the lead short wave trough emerges from the Southwest on Sunday, rather strong surface cyclogenesis is forecast to proceed from the lee of the Front Range into the adjacent high plains. Although it still appears that low-level moisture return to the developing warm sector will be on the lower margins for severe thunderstorm development, steepening lapse rates will probably compensate, in the presence of intensifying wind fields and strong forcing for ascent to the east of the deepening low. As a mid/upper jet streak, perhaps including southwesterly winds increasing to 90-100 kt, crosses the southern Texas Panhandle through western Oklahoma by Sunday evening, it appears that the environment may become conducive to organized convective development. This probably will include a few supercells initially, then a narrow evolving squall line posing increasing risk for severe winds, in addition to large hail and couple of tornadoes, before weakening late Sunday evening. The deep, but perhaps weakening cyclone, is then forecast to migrate through the lower Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest on Monday, but the primary severe weather potential seems likely to shift into the lower Mississippi Valley late Monday into Monday night. This is where forcing near a secondary frontal wave, as a trailing mid-level short wave emerges from the Southwest, may interact with better low-level moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico and support renewed vigorous thunderstorm development. By Monday evening, if not earlier, this probably will again include a risk for supercells, and a developing squall line, which may maintain strength through the evening before weakening overnight. Thereafter, pattern developments become more unclear, but a strong mid/upper jet emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, with a number of amplifying waves, is forecast to spread across the southern mid-latitudes of the U.S., and one or two may be accompanied by renewed cyclogenesis to the east of the Rockies. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing at least some risk for severe weather may approach or perhaps spread inland across the Outer Banks vicinity of North Carolina early Saturday, as the risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development diminishes across parts of southern Florida. ...Synopsis... As a more progressive regime continues to spread across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific, blocking initially centered over the northeastern Pacific is forecast to gradually begin to breakdown. As this occurs, models suggest that downstream flow may undergo amplification across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, inland of the Pacific coast into the western Atlantic. It appears that this will include large-scale mid-level troughing digging across the Pacific coast through the Southwest, with at least a couple of significant embedded short wave perturbations. This will be preceded by building ridging across the Great Plains into Mississippi Valley, and digging mid-level troughing offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. In higher latitudes, a vigorous short wave impulse turning eastward across the Great Lakes by 12Z Saturday (to the south of an elongating circulation across southern Hudson Bay into northern Manitoba) is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward through much of the St. Lawrence Valley by early Sunday, trailed by a perturbation emerging from the troughing to the south. Initially accelerating northeastward to the lee of the southern Appalachians at the outset of the period, there appears increasing consensus that this trailing impulse may support a compact deepening surface low, within elongating surface troughing mostly offshore of the Atlantic coast. However, there is considerable lingering spread concerning this and other sub-synoptic developments across and east of the Atlantic Seaboard. In the wake of the developing surface low, a significant ongoing cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to overtake the offshore surface troughing late Saturday through Saturday night. Models indicate that the southwestern flank of this cold air will stall and begin to undergo modification across the lower Mississippi Valley into central high plains, as surface troughing begins to deepen to the lee of the Front Range and southern Rockies. ...Florida... It is possible that an outflow boundary may linger across parts of the southern peninsula and/or Florida Keys into Saturday morning, with potential for continuing vigorous thunderstorm development accompanied by at least some risk for strong, gusty winds. It appears that this boundary will shift off to the east and south by midday, if not earlier. In its wake, models indicate low-level flow quickly veering to an increasingly westerly component across the remainder of the peninsula, leading to diminishing convective potential ahead of a weak approaching cold front. ...Eastern North Carolina... Severe weather potential appears largely conditional, depending on the evolution and track of the primary surface low. However, the inland advection of a moist unstable warm sector appears at least possible early Saturday, within a strongly sheared environment across the Outer and Inner Banks vicinity. This may provide a window of opportunity for organized convective development, including supercells. ..Kerr.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing at least some risk for severe weather may approach or perhaps spread inland across the Outer Banks vicinity of North Carolina early Saturday, as the risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development diminishes across parts of southern Florida. ...Synopsis... As a more progressive regime continues to spread across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific, blocking initially centered over the northeastern Pacific is forecast to gradually begin to breakdown. As this occurs, models suggest that downstream flow may undergo amplification across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, inland of the Pacific coast into the western Atlantic. It appears that this will include large-scale mid-level troughing digging across the Pacific coast through the Southwest, with at least a couple of significant embedded short wave perturbations. This will be preceded by building ridging across the Great Plains into Mississippi Valley, and digging mid-level troughing offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. In higher latitudes, a vigorous short wave impulse turning eastward across the Great Lakes by 12Z Saturday (to the south of an elongating circulation across southern Hudson Bay into northern Manitoba) is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward through much of the St. Lawrence Valley by early Sunday, trailed by a perturbation emerging from the troughing to the south. Initially accelerating northeastward to the lee of the southern Appalachians at the outset of the period, there appears increasing consensus that this trailing impulse may support a compact deepening surface low, within elongating surface troughing mostly offshore of the Atlantic coast. However, there is considerable lingering spread concerning this and other sub-synoptic developments across and east of the Atlantic Seaboard. In the wake of the developing surface low, a significant ongoing cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to overtake the offshore surface troughing late Saturday through Saturday night. Models indicate that the southwestern flank of this cold air will stall and begin to undergo modification across the lower Mississippi Valley into central high plains, as surface troughing begins to deepen to the lee of the Front Range and southern Rockies. ...Florida... It is possible that an outflow boundary may linger across parts of the southern peninsula and/or Florida Keys into Saturday morning, with potential for continuing vigorous thunderstorm development accompanied by at least some risk for strong, gusty winds. It appears that this boundary will shift off to the east and south by midday, if not earlier. In its wake, models indicate low-level flow quickly veering to an increasingly westerly component across the remainder of the peninsula, leading to diminishing convective potential ahead of a weak approaching cold front. ...Eastern North Carolina... Severe weather potential appears largely conditional, depending on the evolution and track of the primary surface low. However, the inland advection of a moist unstable warm sector appears at least possible early Saturday, within a strongly sheared environment across the Outer and Inner Banks vicinity. This may provide a window of opportunity for organized convective development, including supercells. ..Kerr.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing at least some risk for severe weather may approach or perhaps spread inland across the Outer Banks vicinity of North Carolina early Saturday, as the risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development diminishes across parts of southern Florida. ...Synopsis... As a more progressive regime continues to spread across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific, blocking initially centered over the northeastern Pacific is forecast to gradually begin to breakdown. As this occurs, models suggest that downstream flow may undergo amplification across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, inland of the Pacific coast into the western Atlantic. It appears that this will include large-scale mid-level troughing digging across the Pacific coast through the Southwest, with at least a couple of significant embedded short wave perturbations. This will be preceded by building ridging across the Great Plains into Mississippi Valley, and digging mid-level troughing offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. In higher latitudes, a vigorous short wave impulse turning eastward across the Great Lakes by 12Z Saturday (to the south of an elongating circulation across southern Hudson Bay into northern Manitoba) is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward through much of the St. Lawrence Valley by early Sunday, trailed by a perturbation emerging from the troughing to the south. Initially accelerating northeastward to the lee of the southern Appalachians at the outset of the period, there appears increasing consensus that this trailing impulse may support a compact deepening surface low, within elongating surface troughing mostly offshore of the Atlantic coast. However, there is considerable lingering spread concerning this and other sub-synoptic developments across and east of the Atlantic Seaboard. In the wake of the developing surface low, a significant ongoing cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to overtake the offshore surface troughing late Saturday through Saturday night. Models indicate that the southwestern flank of this cold air will stall and begin to undergo modification across the lower Mississippi Valley into central high plains, as surface troughing begins to deepen to the lee of the Front Range and southern Rockies. ...Florida... It is possible that an outflow boundary may linger across parts of the southern peninsula and/or Florida Keys into Saturday morning, with potential for continuing vigorous thunderstorm development accompanied by at least some risk for strong, gusty winds. It appears that this boundary will shift off to the east and south by midday, if not earlier. In its wake, models indicate low-level flow quickly veering to an increasingly westerly component across the remainder of the peninsula, leading to diminishing convective potential ahead of a weak approaching cold front. ...Eastern North Carolina... Severe weather potential appears largely conditional, depending on the evolution and track of the primary surface low. However, the inland advection of a moist unstable warm sector appears at least possible early Saturday, within a strongly sheared environment across the Outer and Inner Banks vicinity. This may provide a window of opportunity for organized convective development, including supercells. ..Kerr.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing at least some risk for severe weather may approach or perhaps spread inland across the Outer Banks vicinity of North Carolina early Saturday, as the risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development diminishes across parts of southern Florida. ...Synopsis... As a more progressive regime continues to spread across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific, blocking initially centered over the northeastern Pacific is forecast to gradually begin to breakdown. As this occurs, models suggest that downstream flow may undergo amplification across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, inland of the Pacific coast into the western Atlantic. It appears that this will include large-scale mid-level troughing digging across the Pacific coast through the Southwest, with at least a couple of significant embedded short wave perturbations. This will be preceded by building ridging across the Great Plains into Mississippi Valley, and digging mid-level troughing offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. In higher latitudes, a vigorous short wave impulse turning eastward across the Great Lakes by 12Z Saturday (to the south of an elongating circulation across southern Hudson Bay into northern Manitoba) is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward through much of the St. Lawrence Valley by early Sunday, trailed by a perturbation emerging from the troughing to the south. Initially accelerating northeastward to the lee of the southern Appalachians at the outset of the period, there appears increasing consensus that this trailing impulse may support a compact deepening surface low, within elongating surface troughing mostly offshore of the Atlantic coast. However, there is considerable lingering spread concerning this and other sub-synoptic developments across and east of the Atlantic Seaboard. In the wake of the developing surface low, a significant ongoing cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to overtake the offshore surface troughing late Saturday through Saturday night. Models indicate that the southwestern flank of this cold air will stall and begin to undergo modification across the lower Mississippi Valley into central high plains, as surface troughing begins to deepen to the lee of the Front Range and southern Rockies. ...Florida... It is possible that an outflow boundary may linger across parts of the southern peninsula and/or Florida Keys into Saturday morning, with potential for continuing vigorous thunderstorm development accompanied by at least some risk for strong, gusty winds. It appears that this boundary will shift off to the east and south by midday, if not earlier. In its wake, models indicate low-level flow quickly veering to an increasingly westerly component across the remainder of the peninsula, leading to diminishing convective potential ahead of a weak approaching cold front. ...Eastern North Carolina... Severe weather potential appears largely conditional, depending on the evolution and track of the primary surface low. However, the inland advection of a moist unstable warm sector appears at least possible early Saturday, within a strongly sheared environment across the Outer and Inner Banks vicinity. This may provide a window of opportunity for organized convective development, including supercells. ..Kerr.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing at least some risk for severe weather may approach or perhaps spread inland across the Outer Banks vicinity of North Carolina early Saturday, as the risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development diminishes across parts of southern Florida. ...Synopsis... As a more progressive regime continues to spread across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific, blocking initially centered over the northeastern Pacific is forecast to gradually begin to breakdown. As this occurs, models suggest that downstream flow may undergo amplification across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, inland of the Pacific coast into the western Atlantic. It appears that this will include large-scale mid-level troughing digging across the Pacific coast through the Southwest, with at least a couple of significant embedded short wave perturbations. This will be preceded by building ridging across the Great Plains into Mississippi Valley, and digging mid-level troughing offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. In higher latitudes, a vigorous short wave impulse turning eastward across the Great Lakes by 12Z Saturday (to the south of an elongating circulation across southern Hudson Bay into northern Manitoba) is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward through much of the St. Lawrence Valley by early Sunday, trailed by a perturbation emerging from the troughing to the south. Initially accelerating northeastward to the lee of the southern Appalachians at the outset of the period, there appears increasing consensus that this trailing impulse may support a compact deepening surface low, within elongating surface troughing mostly offshore of the Atlantic coast. However, there is considerable lingering spread concerning this and other sub-synoptic developments across and east of the Atlantic Seaboard. In the wake of the developing surface low, a significant ongoing cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to overtake the offshore surface troughing late Saturday through Saturday night. Models indicate that the southwestern flank of this cold air will stall and begin to undergo modification across the lower Mississippi Valley into central high plains, as surface troughing begins to deepen to the lee of the Front Range and southern Rockies. ...Florida... It is possible that an outflow boundary may linger across parts of the southern peninsula and/or Florida Keys into Saturday morning, with potential for continuing vigorous thunderstorm development accompanied by at least some risk for strong, gusty winds. It appears that this boundary will shift off to the east and south by midday, if not earlier. In its wake, models indicate low-level flow quickly veering to an increasingly westerly component across the remainder of the peninsula, leading to diminishing convective potential ahead of a weak approaching cold front. ...Eastern North Carolina... Severe weather potential appears largely conditional, depending on the evolution and track of the primary surface low. However, the inland advection of a moist unstable warm sector appears at least possible early Saturday, within a strongly sheared environment across the Outer and Inner Banks vicinity. This may provide a window of opportunity for organized convective development, including supercells. ..Kerr.. 03/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing at least some risk for severe weather may approach or perhaps spread inland across the Outer Banks vicinity of North Carolina early Saturday, as the risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development diminishes across parts of southern Florida. ...Synopsis... As a more progressive regime continues to spread across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific, blocking initially centered over the northeastern Pacific is forecast to gradually begin to breakdown. As this occurs, models suggest that downstream flow may undergo amplification across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, inland of the Pacific coast into the western Atlantic. It appears that this will include large-scale mid-level troughing digging across the Pacific coast through the Southwest, with at least a couple of significant embedded short wave perturbations. This will be preceded by building ridging across the Great Plains into Mississippi Valley, and digging mid-level troughing offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. In higher latitudes, a vigorous short wave impulse turning eastward across the Great Lakes by 12Z Saturday (to the south of an elongating circulation across southern Hudson Bay into northern Manitoba) is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward through much of the St. Lawrence Valley by early Sunday, trailed by a perturbation emerging from the troughing to the south. Initially accelerating northeastward to the lee of the southern Appalachians at the outset of the period, there appears increasing consensus that this trailing impulse may support a compact deepening surface low, within elongating surface troughing mostly offshore of the Atlantic coast. However, there is considerable lingering spread concerning this and other sub-synoptic developments across and east of the Atlantic Seaboard. In the wake of the developing surface low, a significant ongoing cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to overtake the offshore surface troughing late Saturday through Saturday night. Models indicate that the southwestern flank of this cold air will stall and begin to undergo modification across the lower Mississippi Valley into central high plains, as surface troughing begins to deepen to the lee of the Front Range and southern Rockies. ...Florida... It is possible that an outflow boundary may linger across parts of the southern peninsula and/or Florida Keys into Saturday morning, with potential for continuing vigorous thunderstorm development accompanied by at least some risk for strong, gusty winds. It appears that this boundary will shift off to the east and south by midday, if not earlier. In its wake, models indicate low-level flow quickly veering to an increasingly westerly component across the remainder of the peninsula, leading to diminishing convective potential ahead of a weak approaching cold front. ...Eastern North Carolina... Severe weather potential appears largely conditional, depending on the evolution and track of the primary surface low. However, the inland advection of a moist unstable warm sector appears at least possible early Saturday, within a strongly sheared environment across the Outer and Inner Banks vicinity. This may provide a window of opportunity for organized convective development, including supercells. ..Kerr.. 03/21/2024 Read more