Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected along a corridor from northern Missouri into the Ohio Valley today. Some of this activity has the potential to produce large hail and perhaps a few damaging gusts. ...Northern MO into the Ohio Valley... Large-scale upper pattern will not change appreciably during the day1 period. Ridging will dominate much of the eastern US as troughing holds across the southwestern parts of the country. This flow regime will, however, allow a notable synoptic front to advance a bit north, from near the OH River to around I70 by the end of the period. PW has gradually risen across the warm sector with one-inch values fairly common along/just south of the boundary. Latest surface data suggests the leading edge of 60F dew points are advancing north across OK and will soon spread into southeast KS/ southwest MO. Deep southwesterly flow will permit additional boundary-layer moistening across MO into the lower OH Valley through the period. With weak midlevel height rises expected, convective initiation will likely be significantly influenced by low-level warm advection along the nose of the LLJ. This may result in episodic bouts of robust convection along/near the frontal zone. Early this morning, scattered thunderstorms continue from southern IN/northern KY into southern WV. This activity should spread southeast toward the southern middle Atlantic later today. Renewed convection is expected late this morning/early this afternoon across northern MO near the front, where warm advection will be focused. This activity should then spread/develop downstream into IL/IN. Forecast soundings suggest any convection north of the boundary will be elevated and should pose mostly a hail threat as steep lapse rates will be maintained along this corridor. Wind profiles suggest supercells are possible, though some clustering is likely, especially along the cool side of the boundary. The greatest risk for damaging winds will be noted with storms that evolve near/south of the wind shift. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected along a corridor from northern Missouri into the Ohio Valley today. Some of this activity has the potential to produce large hail and perhaps a few damaging gusts. ...Northern MO into the Ohio Valley... Large-scale upper pattern will not change appreciably during the day1 period. Ridging will dominate much of the eastern US as troughing holds across the southwestern parts of the country. This flow regime will, however, allow a notable synoptic front to advance a bit north, from near the OH River to around I70 by the end of the period. PW has gradually risen across the warm sector with one-inch values fairly common along/just south of the boundary. Latest surface data suggests the leading edge of 60F dew points are advancing north across OK and will soon spread into southeast KS/ southwest MO. Deep southwesterly flow will permit additional boundary-layer moistening across MO into the lower OH Valley through the period. With weak midlevel height rises expected, convective initiation will likely be significantly influenced by low-level warm advection along the nose of the LLJ. This may result in episodic bouts of robust convection along/near the frontal zone. Early this morning, scattered thunderstorms continue from southern IN/northern KY into southern WV. This activity should spread southeast toward the southern middle Atlantic later today. Renewed convection is expected late this morning/early this afternoon across northern MO near the front, where warm advection will be focused. This activity should then spread/develop downstream into IL/IN. Forecast soundings suggest any convection north of the boundary will be elevated and should pose mostly a hail threat as steep lapse rates will be maintained along this corridor. Wind profiles suggest supercells are possible, though some clustering is likely, especially along the cool side of the boundary. The greatest risk for damaging winds will be noted with storms that evolve near/south of the wind shift. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected along a corridor from northern Missouri into the Ohio Valley today. Some of this activity has the potential to produce large hail and perhaps a few damaging gusts. ...Northern MO into the Ohio Valley... Large-scale upper pattern will not change appreciably during the day1 period. Ridging will dominate much of the eastern US as troughing holds across the southwestern parts of the country. This flow regime will, however, allow a notable synoptic front to advance a bit north, from near the OH River to around I70 by the end of the period. PW has gradually risen across the warm sector with one-inch values fairly common along/just south of the boundary. Latest surface data suggests the leading edge of 60F dew points are advancing north across OK and will soon spread into southeast KS/ southwest MO. Deep southwesterly flow will permit additional boundary-layer moistening across MO into the lower OH Valley through the period. With weak midlevel height rises expected, convective initiation will likely be significantly influenced by low-level warm advection along the nose of the LLJ. This may result in episodic bouts of robust convection along/near the frontal zone. Early this morning, scattered thunderstorms continue from southern IN/northern KY into southern WV. This activity should spread southeast toward the southern middle Atlantic later today. Renewed convection is expected late this morning/early this afternoon across northern MO near the front, where warm advection will be focused. This activity should then spread/develop downstream into IL/IN. Forecast soundings suggest any convection north of the boundary will be elevated and should pose mostly a hail threat as steep lapse rates will be maintained along this corridor. Wind profiles suggest supercells are possible, though some clustering is likely, especially along the cool side of the boundary. The greatest risk for damaging winds will be noted with storms that evolve near/south of the wind shift. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST VIRGINIA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will persist this evening across portions of the West Virginia region. Marginally severe hail is the primary risk. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is progressing across the northern middle Atlantic region, and short-wave ridging is now evident in water-vapor imagery across the OH Valley. This lead feature appears partly responsible for the corridor of convection that is sagging southeast across southern PA-northern WV-extreme southern OH. More isolated convection lingers along the OH River into southern IL. Strong boundary-layer heating and steep lapse rates have aided updraft intensity along the western flank of this activity. A small cluster of strong/severe convection will propagate across northern WV over the next few hours, but will increasingly encounter weaker buoyancy downstream where temperatures/dew points are notably lower. While the primary feed into these updrafts is from the west, nocturnal cooling will also lead to weaker buoyancy and the overall severe threat should gradually wane by late evening. Until then, isolated marginally severe hail may accompany this activity. ..Darrow.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST VIRGINIA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will persist this evening across portions of the West Virginia region. Marginally severe hail is the primary risk. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is progressing across the northern middle Atlantic region, and short-wave ridging is now evident in water-vapor imagery across the OH Valley. This lead feature appears partly responsible for the corridor of convection that is sagging southeast across southern PA-northern WV-extreme southern OH. More isolated convection lingers along the OH River into southern IL. Strong boundary-layer heating and steep lapse rates have aided updraft intensity along the western flank of this activity. A small cluster of strong/severe convection will propagate across northern WV over the next few hours, but will increasingly encounter weaker buoyancy downstream where temperatures/dew points are notably lower. While the primary feed into these updrafts is from the west, nocturnal cooling will also lead to weaker buoyancy and the overall severe threat should gradually wane by late evening. Until then, isolated marginally severe hail may accompany this activity. ..Darrow.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST VIRGINIA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will persist this evening across portions of the West Virginia region. Marginally severe hail is the primary risk. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is progressing across the northern middle Atlantic region, and short-wave ridging is now evident in water-vapor imagery across the OH Valley. This lead feature appears partly responsible for the corridor of convection that is sagging southeast across southern PA-northern WV-extreme southern OH. More isolated convection lingers along the OH River into southern IL. Strong boundary-layer heating and steep lapse rates have aided updraft intensity along the western flank of this activity. A small cluster of strong/severe convection will propagate across northern WV over the next few hours, but will increasingly encounter weaker buoyancy downstream where temperatures/dew points are notably lower. While the primary feed into these updrafts is from the west, nocturnal cooling will also lead to weaker buoyancy and the overall severe threat should gradually wane by late evening. Until then, isolated marginally severe hail may accompany this activity. ..Darrow.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST VIRGINIA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will persist this evening across portions of the West Virginia region. Marginally severe hail is the primary risk. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is progressing across the northern middle Atlantic region, and short-wave ridging is now evident in water-vapor imagery across the OH Valley. This lead feature appears partly responsible for the corridor of convection that is sagging southeast across southern PA-northern WV-extreme southern OH. More isolated convection lingers along the OH River into southern IL. Strong boundary-layer heating and steep lapse rates have aided updraft intensity along the western flank of this activity. A small cluster of strong/severe convection will propagate across northern WV over the next few hours, but will increasingly encounter weaker buoyancy downstream where temperatures/dew points are notably lower. While the primary feed into these updrafts is from the west, nocturnal cooling will also lead to weaker buoyancy and the overall severe threat should gradually wane by late evening. Until then, isolated marginally severe hail may accompany this activity. ..Darrow.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST VIRGINIA AREA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will persist this evening across portions of the West Virginia region. Marginally severe hail is the primary risk. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is progressing across the northern middle Atlantic region, and short-wave ridging is now evident in water-vapor imagery across the OH Valley. This lead feature appears partly responsible for the corridor of convection that is sagging southeast across southern PA-northern WV-extreme southern OH. More isolated convection lingers along the OH River into southern IL. Strong boundary-layer heating and steep lapse rates have aided updraft intensity along the western flank of this activity. A small cluster of strong/severe convection will propagate across northern WV over the next few hours, but will increasingly encounter weaker buoyancy downstream where temperatures/dew points are notably lower. While the primary feed into these updrafts is from the west, nocturnal cooling will also lead to weaker buoyancy and the overall severe threat should gradually wane by late evening. Until then, isolated marginally severe hail may accompany this activity. ..Darrow.. 03/31/2024 Read more

MD 0314 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 63... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OH INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST PA AND NORTHERN WV
Mesoscale Discussion 0314 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern OH into extreme southwest PA and northern WV Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63... Valid 302309Z - 310045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63 continues. SUMMARY...Severe hail remains the primary concern with ongoing storms across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63, though a tornado cannot be ruled out. These storms should persist for at least a few more hours while rapidly moving southeast. Local watch extensions may be needed in the next few hours ahead of the more robust storms. DISCUSSION...Multiple discrete/semi-discrete supercells are ongoing across portions of central into southeastern OH, which have produced several instances of 1+ inch hail over the past few hours, as well as persistent tracks of 1+ inch MESH tracks per MRMS mosaic radar data. These storms are tracking along the eastern extent of a 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, which also overspreads a surface thermal ridge that is contributing to a well-mixed boundary layer. Both 22Z mesoanalysis and some of the latest regional VADs all depict elongated hodographs well downstream of the ongoing storms. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, additional instances of severe hail are expected into the evening hours. Since there is some appreciable low-level curvature to the hodographs, a tornado cannot be completely ruled out, though very limited low-level moisture should limit the tornado threat. Many of the ongoing storms have forward speeds at or above 40 kts, suggesting that some of these storms may reach the southern and eastern bounds of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63 before severe hail potential diminishes. As such, WW spatial extensions may be needed over the next few hours pending convective trends. ..Squitieri.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...ILN... LAT...LON 39818296 40168134 39998044 39547972 38917981 38538034 38548112 38798217 39028312 39198354 39318370 39818296 Read more

WW 0063 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 63 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WNW PKB TO 30 ENE PKB TO 35 WSW MGW. ..BENTLEY..03/31/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...ILN...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 63 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC001-017-033-041-073-083-085-095-097-107-310140- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR DODDRIDGE HARRISON LEWIS PLEASANTS RANDOLPH RITCHIE TYLER UPSHUR WOOD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0063 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 63 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WNW PKB TO 30 ENE PKB TO 35 WSW MGW. ..BENTLEY..03/31/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...ILN...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 63 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC001-017-033-041-073-083-085-095-097-107-310140- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR DODDRIDGE HARRISON LEWIS PLEASANTS RANDOLPH RITCHIE TYLER UPSHUR WOOD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 63 SEVERE TSTM OH WV 302045Z - 310200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 63 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and east central Ohio Northern West Virginia and the northern West Virginia Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are developing in central Ohio and will spread east-southeastward through late evening. A couple of supercells are expected with the potential to produce large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Columbus OH to 10 miles south southeast of Wheeling WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 30040. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0314 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 63... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OH INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST PA AND NORTHERN WV
Mesoscale Discussion 0314 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern OH into extreme southwest PA and northern WV Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63... Valid 302309Z - 310045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63 continues. SUMMARY...Severe hail remains the primary concern with ongoing storms across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63, though a tornado cannot be ruled out. These storms should persist for at least a few more hours while rapidly moving southeast. Local watch extensions may be needed in the next few hours ahead of the more robust storms. DISCUSSION...Multiple discrete/semi-discrete supercells are ongoing across portions of central into southeastern OH, which have produced several instances of 1+ inch hail over the past few hours, as well as persistent tracks of 1+ inch MESH tracks per MRMS mosaic radar data. These storms are tracking along the eastern extent of a 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, which also overspreads a surface thermal ridge that is contributing to a well-mixed boundary layer. Both 22Z mesoanalysis and some of the latest regional VADs all depict elongated hodographs well downstream of the ongoing storms. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, additional instances of severe hail are expected into the evening hours. Since there is some appreciable low-level curvature to the hodographs, a tornado cannot be completely ruled out, though very limited low-level moisture should limit the tornado threat. Many of the ongoing storms have forward speeds at or above 40 kts, suggesting that some of these storms may reach the southern and eastern bounds of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 63 before severe hail potential diminishes. As such, WW spatial extensions may be needed over the next few hours pending convective trends. ..Squitieri.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...ILN... LAT...LON 39818296 40168134 39998044 39547972 38917981 38538034 38548112 38798217 39028312 39198354 39318370 39818296 Read more

WW 0063 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 63 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE CMH TO 10 SW ZZV TO 25 E ZZV TO 15 SW HLG TO 20 SE HLG AND 20 NNE UNI TO 15 S ZZV TO 35 E ZZV TO 20 WNW MGW. ..BENTLEY..03/30/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...ILN...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 63 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC111-115-121-167-310040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MONROE MORGAN NOBLE WASHINGTON PAC059-310040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREENE WVC017-033-049-051-061-073-085-095-103-107-310040- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODDRIDGE HARRISON MARION MARSHALL MONONGALIA PLEASANTS Read more

WW 63 SEVERE TSTM OH WV 302045Z - 310200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 63 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and east central Ohio Northern West Virginia and the northern West Virginia Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are developing in central Ohio and will spread east-southeastward through late evening. A couple of supercells are expected with the potential to produce large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Columbus OH to 10 miles south southeast of Wheeling WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 30040. ...Thompson Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 30 23:01:02 UTC 2024.

WW 0063 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 63 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW CMH TO 20 ENE CMH TO 15 NNE ZZV TO 35 NE ZZV TO 30 SSE CAK TO 20 E CAK. ..BENTLEY..03/30/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...ILN...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 63 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC013-019-029-045-049-059-067-081-089-111-115-119-121-127-167- 302340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA FAIRFIELD FRANKLIN GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON LICKING MONROE MORGAN MUSKINGUM NOBLE PERRY WASHINGTON WVC009-017-029-033-051-069-073-085-095-103-107-302340- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKE DODDRIDGE HANCOCK HARRISON MARSHALL OHIO PLEASANTS RITCHIE TYLER WETZEL WOOD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

MD 0313 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL IN INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OH
Mesoscale Discussion 0313 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Areas affected...Far East-Central IN into Central/Southern OH Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 302027Z - 302300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail (1" to 1.75") and/or damaging gusts (from 40 to 60 mph) are possible this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis places a low over north-central OH (about 30 miles east-northeast of FDY). A warm front extends east-southeastward from this low across southeast OH into far northern WV. A modest surface trough also extends southwestward from this low across central IN and central IL. Filtered heating in the wake of the early morning cloud cover has allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 60s/low 70s within the warm sector south/southwest of the warm front and to the east of the surface troughing. Low-level moisture remains modest, with dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s. Even though the low-level thermodynamic conditions are relatively modest, these conditions combined cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -20 deg C at 500 mb) and associated steep mid-level lapse rates are contributing to air mass destabilization. This destabilization is verified by increasingly agitated cumulus just ahead of the surface trough over far east-central IN and far western OH. Given the veered low-level flow, convergence along the boundary is limited. However, ascent along the boundary will be augmented by large-scale ascent attendant to a fast-moving shortwave embedded within the strong westerly flow aloft. This combination of ascent and destabilization will likely result in convective initiation. Buoyancy will be modest, but deep-layer vertical shear will be strong. Recent mesoanalysis estimates 50 to 60 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear across the region. As such, any deeper updrafts could become organized, capable of producing large hail (1" to 1.75") and/or damaging wind gusts (40 to 60 mph this afternoon and evening. ..Mosier/Thompson.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 40828361 40618083 39268057 38738137 38618264 38898430 40018520 40828361 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z On Day 3/Monday, an amplified large-scale trough and strong midlevel southwesterly jet will cross the southern Plains, while an associated cold front overspreads the region. While related early-day cloud coverage may stunt diurnal heating, strong downslope warming/drying behind the front should contribute to several hours of low RH amid 25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across southwest TX and far southeast NM. Given antecedent drying of fine fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions should persist across portions of south TX (particularly along the Rio Grande) on Day 4/Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Thereafter, cool post-frontal conditions should temporarily limit fire-weather potential across the Plains. By Days 7-8/Friday -Saturday, medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in the depiction of strong deep-layer meridional flow overspreading the central/southern High Plains -- ahead of an amplified western CONUS trough. The above-average model agreement in this scenario supports the introduction of 40-percent Critical probabilities, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding preceding rainfall/fuel status becomes more clear with time. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z On Day 3/Monday, an amplified large-scale trough and strong midlevel southwesterly jet will cross the southern Plains, while an associated cold front overspreads the region. While related early-day cloud coverage may stunt diurnal heating, strong downslope warming/drying behind the front should contribute to several hours of low RH amid 25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across southwest TX and far southeast NM. Given antecedent drying of fine fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions should persist across portions of south TX (particularly along the Rio Grande) on Day 4/Tuesday, potentially leading to elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of any more than locally critical conditions is too low to introduce probabilities at this time. Thereafter, cool post-frontal conditions should temporarily limit fire-weather potential across the Plains. By Days 7-8/Friday -Saturday, medium-range model guidance is in good agreement in the depiction of strong deep-layer meridional flow overspreading the central/southern High Plains -- ahead of an amplified western CONUS trough. The above-average model agreement in this scenario supports the introduction of 40-percent Critical probabilities, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details regarding preceding rainfall/fuel status becomes more clear with time. ..Weinman.. 03/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more