Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected to occur over a broad region from the southern Plains, the Ozarks, portions of the Ohio Valley, and into a small part of the Mid-Atlantic. Large to very-large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible. The severe threat will peak afternoon/evening in the southern Plains with the greatest threat for the Ohio Valley vicinity being the evening/overnight period. ...Synopsis... A rather broad, positively tilted upper trough will be positioned within the Four Corners region. A mid-level jet streak will move northeastward through the Trans-Pecos and into Red River region by early evening. This feature is forecast to be weakening during the afternoon as it shifts northeast. As the mid-level jet moves into the Midwest during the evening, a short-wave trough is expected to intensify in the Upper Midwest, with mid-level winds increasing across the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a modest surface mass response is anticipated in the southern Plains. Guidance generally depicts a modest surface low developing in western/central Oklahoma. A dryline will be pendant from this feature and provide a focus for convective development during the afternoon. This surface low will track northeastward along with its parent upper trough along nearly stationary boundary from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Some deepening of this low may occur very late in the period as the upper wave intensifies. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper-level trough ejects into the region, sufficient moisture for high-based convection should exist in the Texas Panhandle and parts of the South Plains. A few convectively enhanced gusts may occur with this activity. Buoyancy should remain too limited for more than small hail. ...Oklahoma/Texas... Between cloud cover and a capping inversion aloft, storm development along the dryline should hold off until the mid/late afternoon when greater mid-level ascent arrives. Strong deep-layer shear should promote supercell storm structures at least initially. Hodographs will be long and generally straight, but there are also veer-back signatures that could indicate some potential for a messier storm mode. Even so, potential for large to very-large hail is evident given the shear and mid-level lapse rates. The tornado risk should be mitigated to some extent by the overall weak low-level shear. That being said, supercells that can be maintained into the early evening (00-03Z) will see a brief window of increased tornado potential as the low-level jet modestly strengthens. Farther south into central Texas, forcing will be a bit weaker and capping a touch stronger. Storms that do develop will likely have supercellular characteristics. Large-hail and damaging winds are the most likely hazards. ...Ozarks into Ohio Valley... Some warm advection driven convection may be ongoing early in the period across parts of these regions. These storms will likely be elevated with a risk for large hail and isolated damaging winds. By the afternoon, greater potential for surface-based storms will exist from the triple point near the KS/OK border and along the cold front in southeast Kansas into Missouri. These storms will at least initially be supercells with potential for very-large hail. Storms are expected to grow upscale with a greater risk of damaging winds. While not overly strong, low-level shear should remain sufficient for a threat of QLCS circulations/tornadoes. It is possible that initially elevated storms may become near surface based during the afternoon in the Ohio Valley. Additional storms will likely move in from the west later in the evening overnight as the shortwave trough/surface low move northeastward. Damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes would be possible with this activity. The hail threat is a bit uncertain given the potential for more linear storm modes. However, large hail will remain possible. ...Parts of Mid-Atlantic... Overall storm coverage is uncertain given the generally neutral mid-level height changes through the period. Some model solutions do produce convection along the stationary surface boundary. Given strong mid-level winds and modestly steep lapse rates aloft, marginally severe hail and isolated damaging winds could occur with the stronger storms. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected to occur over a broad region from the southern Plains, the Ozarks, portions of the Ohio Valley, and into a small part of the Mid-Atlantic. Large to very-large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible. The severe threat will peak afternoon/evening in the southern Plains with the greatest threat for the Ohio Valley vicinity being the evening/overnight period. ...Synopsis... A rather broad, positively tilted upper trough will be positioned within the Four Corners region. A mid-level jet streak will move northeastward through the Trans-Pecos and into Red River region by early evening. This feature is forecast to be weakening during the afternoon as it shifts northeast. As the mid-level jet moves into the Midwest during the evening, a short-wave trough is expected to intensify in the Upper Midwest, with mid-level winds increasing across the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a modest surface mass response is anticipated in the southern Plains. Guidance generally depicts a modest surface low developing in western/central Oklahoma. A dryline will be pendant from this feature and provide a focus for convective development during the afternoon. This surface low will track northeastward along with its parent upper trough along nearly stationary boundary from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Some deepening of this low may occur very late in the period as the upper wave intensifies. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper-level trough ejects into the region, sufficient moisture for high-based convection should exist in the Texas Panhandle and parts of the South Plains. A few convectively enhanced gusts may occur with this activity. Buoyancy should remain too limited for more than small hail. ...Oklahoma/Texas... Between cloud cover and a capping inversion aloft, storm development along the dryline should hold off until the mid/late afternoon when greater mid-level ascent arrives. Strong deep-layer shear should promote supercell storm structures at least initially. Hodographs will be long and generally straight, but there are also veer-back signatures that could indicate some potential for a messier storm mode. Even so, potential for large to very-large hail is evident given the shear and mid-level lapse rates. The tornado risk should be mitigated to some extent by the overall weak low-level shear. That being said, supercells that can be maintained into the early evening (00-03Z) will see a brief window of increased tornado potential as the low-level jet modestly strengthens. Farther south into central Texas, forcing will be a bit weaker and capping a touch stronger. Storms that do develop will likely have supercellular characteristics. Large-hail and damaging winds are the most likely hazards. ...Ozarks into Ohio Valley... Some warm advection driven convection may be ongoing early in the period across parts of these regions. These storms will likely be elevated with a risk for large hail and isolated damaging winds. By the afternoon, greater potential for surface-based storms will exist from the triple point near the KS/OK border and along the cold front in southeast Kansas into Missouri. These storms will at least initially be supercells with potential for very-large hail. Storms are expected to grow upscale with a greater risk of damaging winds. While not overly strong, low-level shear should remain sufficient for a threat of QLCS circulations/tornadoes. It is possible that initially elevated storms may become near surface based during the afternoon in the Ohio Valley. Additional storms will likely move in from the west later in the evening overnight as the shortwave trough/surface low move northeastward. Damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes would be possible with this activity. The hail threat is a bit uncertain given the potential for more linear storm modes. However, large hail will remain possible. ...Parts of Mid-Atlantic... Overall storm coverage is uncertain given the generally neutral mid-level height changes through the period. Some model solutions do produce convection along the stationary surface boundary. Given strong mid-level winds and modestly steep lapse rates aloft, marginally severe hail and isolated damaging winds could occur with the stronger storms. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected to occur over a broad region from the southern Plains, the Ozarks, portions of the Ohio Valley, and into a small part of the Mid-Atlantic. Large to very-large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible. The severe threat will peak afternoon/evening in the southern Plains with the greatest threat for the Ohio Valley vicinity being the evening/overnight period. ...Synopsis... A rather broad, positively tilted upper trough will be positioned within the Four Corners region. A mid-level jet streak will move northeastward through the Trans-Pecos and into Red River region by early evening. This feature is forecast to be weakening during the afternoon as it shifts northeast. As the mid-level jet moves into the Midwest during the evening, a short-wave trough is expected to intensify in the Upper Midwest, with mid-level winds increasing across the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a modest surface mass response is anticipated in the southern Plains. Guidance generally depicts a modest surface low developing in western/central Oklahoma. A dryline will be pendant from this feature and provide a focus for convective development during the afternoon. This surface low will track northeastward along with its parent upper trough along nearly stationary boundary from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Some deepening of this low may occur very late in the period as the upper wave intensifies. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper-level trough ejects into the region, sufficient moisture for high-based convection should exist in the Texas Panhandle and parts of the South Plains. A few convectively enhanced gusts may occur with this activity. Buoyancy should remain too limited for more than small hail. ...Oklahoma/Texas... Between cloud cover and a capping inversion aloft, storm development along the dryline should hold off until the mid/late afternoon when greater mid-level ascent arrives. Strong deep-layer shear should promote supercell storm structures at least initially. Hodographs will be long and generally straight, but there are also veer-back signatures that could indicate some potential for a messier storm mode. Even so, potential for large to very-large hail is evident given the shear and mid-level lapse rates. The tornado risk should be mitigated to some extent by the overall weak low-level shear. That being said, supercells that can be maintained into the early evening (00-03Z) will see a brief window of increased tornado potential as the low-level jet modestly strengthens. Farther south into central Texas, forcing will be a bit weaker and capping a touch stronger. Storms that do develop will likely have supercellular characteristics. Large-hail and damaging winds are the most likely hazards. ...Ozarks into Ohio Valley... Some warm advection driven convection may be ongoing early in the period across parts of these regions. These storms will likely be elevated with a risk for large hail and isolated damaging winds. By the afternoon, greater potential for surface-based storms will exist from the triple point near the KS/OK border and along the cold front in southeast Kansas into Missouri. These storms will at least initially be supercells with potential for very-large hail. Storms are expected to grow upscale with a greater risk of damaging winds. While not overly strong, low-level shear should remain sufficient for a threat of QLCS circulations/tornadoes. It is possible that initially elevated storms may become near surface based during the afternoon in the Ohio Valley. Additional storms will likely move in from the west later in the evening overnight as the shortwave trough/surface low move northeastward. Damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes would be possible with this activity. The hail threat is a bit uncertain given the potential for more linear storm modes. However, large hail will remain possible. ...Parts of Mid-Atlantic... Overall storm coverage is uncertain given the generally neutral mid-level height changes through the period. Some model solutions do produce convection along the stationary surface boundary. Given strong mid-level winds and modestly steep lapse rates aloft, marginally severe hail and isolated damaging winds could occur with the stronger storms. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected to occur over a broad region from the southern Plains, the Ozarks, portions of the Ohio Valley, and into a small part of the Mid-Atlantic. Large to very-large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible. The severe threat will peak afternoon/evening in the southern Plains with the greatest threat for the Ohio Valley vicinity being the evening/overnight period. ...Synopsis... A rather broad, positively tilted upper trough will be positioned within the Four Corners region. A mid-level jet streak will move northeastward through the Trans-Pecos and into Red River region by early evening. This feature is forecast to be weakening during the afternoon as it shifts northeast. As the mid-level jet moves into the Midwest during the evening, a short-wave trough is expected to intensify in the Upper Midwest, with mid-level winds increasing across the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a modest surface mass response is anticipated in the southern Plains. Guidance generally depicts a modest surface low developing in western/central Oklahoma. A dryline will be pendant from this feature and provide a focus for convective development during the afternoon. This surface low will track northeastward along with its parent upper trough along nearly stationary boundary from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Some deepening of this low may occur very late in the period as the upper wave intensifies. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper-level trough ejects into the region, sufficient moisture for high-based convection should exist in the Texas Panhandle and parts of the South Plains. A few convectively enhanced gusts may occur with this activity. Buoyancy should remain too limited for more than small hail. ...Oklahoma/Texas... Between cloud cover and a capping inversion aloft, storm development along the dryline should hold off until the mid/late afternoon when greater mid-level ascent arrives. Strong deep-layer shear should promote supercell storm structures at least initially. Hodographs will be long and generally straight, but there are also veer-back signatures that could indicate some potential for a messier storm mode. Even so, potential for large to very-large hail is evident given the shear and mid-level lapse rates. The tornado risk should be mitigated to some extent by the overall weak low-level shear. That being said, supercells that can be maintained into the early evening (00-03Z) will see a brief window of increased tornado potential as the low-level jet modestly strengthens. Farther south into central Texas, forcing will be a bit weaker and capping a touch stronger. Storms that do develop will likely have supercellular characteristics. Large-hail and damaging winds are the most likely hazards. ...Ozarks into Ohio Valley... Some warm advection driven convection may be ongoing early in the period across parts of these regions. These storms will likely be elevated with a risk for large hail and isolated damaging winds. By the afternoon, greater potential for surface-based storms will exist from the triple point near the KS/OK border and along the cold front in southeast Kansas into Missouri. These storms will at least initially be supercells with potential for very-large hail. Storms are expected to grow upscale with a greater risk of damaging winds. While not overly strong, low-level shear should remain sufficient for a threat of QLCS circulations/tornadoes. It is possible that initially elevated storms may become near surface based during the afternoon in the Ohio Valley. Additional storms will likely move in from the west later in the evening overnight as the shortwave trough/surface low move northeastward. Damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes would be possible with this activity. The hail threat is a bit uncertain given the potential for more linear storm modes. However, large hail will remain possible. ...Parts of Mid-Atlantic... Overall storm coverage is uncertain given the generally neutral mid-level height changes through the period. Some model solutions do produce convection along the stationary surface boundary. Given strong mid-level winds and modestly steep lapse rates aloft, marginally severe hail and isolated damaging winds could occur with the stronger storms. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected to occur over a broad region from the southern Plains, the Ozarks, portions of the Ohio Valley, and into a small part of the Mid-Atlantic. Large to very-large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible. The severe threat will peak afternoon/evening in the southern Plains with the greatest threat for the Ohio Valley vicinity being the evening/overnight period. ...Synopsis... A rather broad, positively tilted upper trough will be positioned within the Four Corners region. A mid-level jet streak will move northeastward through the Trans-Pecos and into Red River region by early evening. This feature is forecast to be weakening during the afternoon as it shifts northeast. As the mid-level jet moves into the Midwest during the evening, a short-wave trough is expected to intensify in the Upper Midwest, with mid-level winds increasing across the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a modest surface mass response is anticipated in the southern Plains. Guidance generally depicts a modest surface low developing in western/central Oklahoma. A dryline will be pendant from this feature and provide a focus for convective development during the afternoon. This surface low will track northeastward along with its parent upper trough along nearly stationary boundary from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Some deepening of this low may occur very late in the period as the upper wave intensifies. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper-level trough ejects into the region, sufficient moisture for high-based convection should exist in the Texas Panhandle and parts of the South Plains. A few convectively enhanced gusts may occur with this activity. Buoyancy should remain too limited for more than small hail. ...Oklahoma/Texas... Between cloud cover and a capping inversion aloft, storm development along the dryline should hold off until the mid/late afternoon when greater mid-level ascent arrives. Strong deep-layer shear should promote supercell storm structures at least initially. Hodographs will be long and generally straight, but there are also veer-back signatures that could indicate some potential for a messier storm mode. Even so, potential for large to very-large hail is evident given the shear and mid-level lapse rates. The tornado risk should be mitigated to some extent by the overall weak low-level shear. That being said, supercells that can be maintained into the early evening (00-03Z) will see a brief window of increased tornado potential as the low-level jet modestly strengthens. Farther south into central Texas, forcing will be a bit weaker and capping a touch stronger. Storms that do develop will likely have supercellular characteristics. Large-hail and damaging winds are the most likely hazards. ...Ozarks into Ohio Valley... Some warm advection driven convection may be ongoing early in the period across parts of these regions. These storms will likely be elevated with a risk for large hail and isolated damaging winds. By the afternoon, greater potential for surface-based storms will exist from the triple point near the KS/OK border and along the cold front in southeast Kansas into Missouri. These storms will at least initially be supercells with potential for very-large hail. Storms are expected to grow upscale with a greater risk of damaging winds. While not overly strong, low-level shear should remain sufficient for a threat of QLCS circulations/tornadoes. It is possible that initially elevated storms may become near surface based during the afternoon in the Ohio Valley. Additional storms will likely move in from the west later in the evening overnight as the shortwave trough/surface low move northeastward. Damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes would be possible with this activity. The hail threat is a bit uncertain given the potential for more linear storm modes. However, large hail will remain possible. ...Parts of Mid-Atlantic... Overall storm coverage is uncertain given the generally neutral mid-level height changes through the period. Some model solutions do produce convection along the stationary surface boundary. Given strong mid-level winds and modestly steep lapse rates aloft, marginally severe hail and isolated damaging winds could occur with the stronger storms. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong mid-level flow has started to overspread the Southwest and will slowly drift east toward the southern High Plains through the day. Persistent lee cyclogenesis ahead of the associated mid-level trough will lead to a sub-1000mb surface low across eastern Colorado. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient and lead to windy conditions across much of the southern and central High Plains. The strongest winds are expected across New Mexico and into the western Oklahoma Panhandle where the strongest winds aloft will overspread the deeply mixed airmass. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph and relative humidity of 8 to 13 percent are expected. Several days of dry and breezy conditions have dried fuels substantially across the region with critically dry fuels now present across much of the southern and central High Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong mid-level flow has started to overspread the Southwest and will slowly drift east toward the southern High Plains through the day. Persistent lee cyclogenesis ahead of the associated mid-level trough will lead to a sub-1000mb surface low across eastern Colorado. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient and lead to windy conditions across much of the southern and central High Plains. The strongest winds are expected across New Mexico and into the western Oklahoma Panhandle where the strongest winds aloft will overspread the deeply mixed airmass. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph and relative humidity of 8 to 13 percent are expected. Several days of dry and breezy conditions have dried fuels substantially across the region with critically dry fuels now present across much of the southern and central High Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong mid-level flow has started to overspread the Southwest and will slowly drift east toward the southern High Plains through the day. Persistent lee cyclogenesis ahead of the associated mid-level trough will lead to a sub-1000mb surface low across eastern Colorado. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient and lead to windy conditions across much of the southern and central High Plains. The strongest winds are expected across New Mexico and into the western Oklahoma Panhandle where the strongest winds aloft will overspread the deeply mixed airmass. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph and relative humidity of 8 to 13 percent are expected. Several days of dry and breezy conditions have dried fuels substantially across the region with critically dry fuels now present across much of the southern and central High Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong mid-level flow has started to overspread the Southwest and will slowly drift east toward the southern High Plains through the day. Persistent lee cyclogenesis ahead of the associated mid-level trough will lead to a sub-1000mb surface low across eastern Colorado. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient and lead to windy conditions across much of the southern and central High Plains. The strongest winds are expected across New Mexico and into the western Oklahoma Panhandle where the strongest winds aloft will overspread the deeply mixed airmass. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph and relative humidity of 8 to 13 percent are expected. Several days of dry and breezy conditions have dried fuels substantially across the region with critically dry fuels now present across much of the southern and central High Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong mid-level flow has started to overspread the Southwest and will slowly drift east toward the southern High Plains through the day. Persistent lee cyclogenesis ahead of the associated mid-level trough will lead to a sub-1000mb surface low across eastern Colorado. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient and lead to windy conditions across much of the southern and central High Plains. The strongest winds are expected across New Mexico and into the western Oklahoma Panhandle where the strongest winds aloft will overspread the deeply mixed airmass. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph and relative humidity of 8 to 13 percent are expected. Several days of dry and breezy conditions have dried fuels substantially across the region with critically dry fuels now present across much of the southern and central High Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL/IN... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce large hail later this afternoon into tonight from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana. Isolated large hail and/or wind damage may also occur this afternoon from southern West Virginia into south central Virginia. ...MO/IL to VA through tonight... A largely east-west oriented baroclinic zone will drift slowly northward as a warm front across MO/IL, well east of lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO. The potential for surface-based storms along the warm front appears questionable, given lingering capping with a relatively warm elevated mixed layer atop the moistening boundary layer. Much of the convection through the period will likely be elevated atop the frontal surface and tied to low-level warm advection. There will be sufficient cloud-layer shear for supercells capable of producing large hail, but confidence in specific storm development this afternoon (see MD #315 for additional information) versus tonight is relatively low. Thus, will maintain the conditional outlook area with few changes. Farther east, some convection is ongoing in a loose cluster across southern WV in association with weak low-level warm advection. Some expansion of the weakly unstable warm sector is expected into VA through the afternoon, and a couple of storms could persist along this corridor to near the VA/NC by mid-late afternoon. There will be a conditional threat for a somewhat high-based supercell or two with an accompanying threat for isolated large hail and/or damaging outflow gusts. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL/IN... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce large hail later this afternoon into tonight from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana. Isolated large hail and/or wind damage may also occur this afternoon from southern West Virginia into south central Virginia. ...MO/IL to VA through tonight... A largely east-west oriented baroclinic zone will drift slowly northward as a warm front across MO/IL, well east of lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO. The potential for surface-based storms along the warm front appears questionable, given lingering capping with a relatively warm elevated mixed layer atop the moistening boundary layer. Much of the convection through the period will likely be elevated atop the frontal surface and tied to low-level warm advection. There will be sufficient cloud-layer shear for supercells capable of producing large hail, but confidence in specific storm development this afternoon (see MD #315 for additional information) versus tonight is relatively low. Thus, will maintain the conditional outlook area with few changes. Farther east, some convection is ongoing in a loose cluster across southern WV in association with weak low-level warm advection. Some expansion of the weakly unstable warm sector is expected into VA through the afternoon, and a couple of storms could persist along this corridor to near the VA/NC by mid-late afternoon. There will be a conditional threat for a somewhat high-based supercell or two with an accompanying threat for isolated large hail and/or damaging outflow gusts. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL/IN... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce large hail later this afternoon into tonight from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana. Isolated large hail and/or wind damage may also occur this afternoon from southern West Virginia into south central Virginia. ...MO/IL to VA through tonight... A largely east-west oriented baroclinic zone will drift slowly northward as a warm front across MO/IL, well east of lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO. The potential for surface-based storms along the warm front appears questionable, given lingering capping with a relatively warm elevated mixed layer atop the moistening boundary layer. Much of the convection through the period will likely be elevated atop the frontal surface and tied to low-level warm advection. There will be sufficient cloud-layer shear for supercells capable of producing large hail, but confidence in specific storm development this afternoon (see MD #315 for additional information) versus tonight is relatively low. Thus, will maintain the conditional outlook area with few changes. Farther east, some convection is ongoing in a loose cluster across southern WV in association with weak low-level warm advection. Some expansion of the weakly unstable warm sector is expected into VA through the afternoon, and a couple of storms could persist along this corridor to near the VA/NC by mid-late afternoon. There will be a conditional threat for a somewhat high-based supercell or two with an accompanying threat for isolated large hail and/or damaging outflow gusts. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL/IN... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce large hail later this afternoon into tonight from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana. Isolated large hail and/or wind damage may also occur this afternoon from southern West Virginia into south central Virginia. ...MO/IL to VA through tonight... A largely east-west oriented baroclinic zone will drift slowly northward as a warm front across MO/IL, well east of lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO. The potential for surface-based storms along the warm front appears questionable, given lingering capping with a relatively warm elevated mixed layer atop the moistening boundary layer. Much of the convection through the period will likely be elevated atop the frontal surface and tied to low-level warm advection. There will be sufficient cloud-layer shear for supercells capable of producing large hail, but confidence in specific storm development this afternoon (see MD #315 for additional information) versus tonight is relatively low. Thus, will maintain the conditional outlook area with few changes. Farther east, some convection is ongoing in a loose cluster across southern WV in association with weak low-level warm advection. Some expansion of the weakly unstable warm sector is expected into VA through the afternoon, and a couple of storms could persist along this corridor to near the VA/NC by mid-late afternoon. There will be a conditional threat for a somewhat high-based supercell or two with an accompanying threat for isolated large hail and/or damaging outflow gusts. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL/IN... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce large hail later this afternoon into tonight from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana. Isolated large hail and/or wind damage may also occur this afternoon from southern West Virginia into south central Virginia. ...MO/IL to VA through tonight... A largely east-west oriented baroclinic zone will drift slowly northward as a warm front across MO/IL, well east of lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO. The potential for surface-based storms along the warm front appears questionable, given lingering capping with a relatively warm elevated mixed layer atop the moistening boundary layer. Much of the convection through the period will likely be elevated atop the frontal surface and tied to low-level warm advection. There will be sufficient cloud-layer shear for supercells capable of producing large hail, but confidence in specific storm development this afternoon (see MD #315 for additional information) versus tonight is relatively low. Thus, will maintain the conditional outlook area with few changes. Farther east, some convection is ongoing in a loose cluster across southern WV in association with weak low-level warm advection. Some expansion of the weakly unstable warm sector is expected into VA through the afternoon, and a couple of storms could persist along this corridor to near the VA/NC by mid-late afternoon. There will be a conditional threat for a somewhat high-based supercell or two with an accompanying threat for isolated large hail and/or damaging outflow gusts. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today along a corridor from northern Missouri into the Ohio Valley, with large hail expected. Damaging gusts are possible, and a marginal tornado threat also exists. ...Synopsis... The major mid/upper-level influence on convective potential today, and for the next few days, will be a high-amplitude, positively tilted, synoptic-scale trough now extending from the northern Rockies southwestward to offshore from southern CA. Two accompanying, closed cyclones were noted in moisture-channel imagery -- the largest centered about 150 nm west of LAX, the smaller one over west-central NV. Both cyclones are forecast to devolve to open shortwave troughs through the period, as an upstream perturbation -- now over the interior Northwest -- digs southward in the backside cyclonic-flow field. Meanwhile, the synoptic trough itself will shift eastward by 12Z to an axial position near DIK-LND-BCE-YUM, then offshore from central/southern Baja. Ridging aloft will amplify slightly and drift eastward across the central/southern Plains. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over extreme western KS, with quasistationary to slow-moving warm front extending across central parts of KS/MO to near SDF and central WV. The eastern part of this boundary may be shunted southward over the middle Ohio Valley and WV today by precip. The KS low is expected to ripple east-northeastward on the northward-drifting warm front toward MKC, and weaken through the period, with the warm front reaching perhaps 80-120 nm north of its initial position in MO/IL/IN. Meanwhile, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO, at or near a lee trough intersection with the front. The resulting low should migrate along the boundary tonight, across southwestern/central KS. A dryline was analyzed from a frontal intersection near GBD across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin to the Big Bend area. The dryline should mix eastward this afternoon to western OK and west-central TX, before retreating westward overnight, and is expected to remain capped for deep convective potential this period. ...MO to central Appalachians... An ongoing, broken swath of precip, with widely scattered thunderstorms, was apparent in radar composites from southern IN into portions of WV. This activity should shift east-southeastward through the remainder of the morning and continue largely as non-severe. However, isolated large hail or strong gusts may occur from any sustained, relatively discrete activity near the southern part of the precip plume. The main convective episode should occur from around midafternoon into this evening, as scattered thunderstorms develop near the front. With a strongly front-parallel component to mean flow, activity should move along or just north of the surface boundary, offering large hail and sporadic damaging to marginally severe gusts. Local boundary processes (e.g., interaction between storm and vorticity-rich outflow boundary or front) may alter local low-level shear favorably enough for some tornado potential, though this threat appears isolated and conditional, given the lack of greater boundary-layer moisture. Although weak height rises are forecast across the region as the synoptic ridge to the west amplifies, associated effects on large-scale motion should be too small to impact convective potential. Diurnal heating and moist advection will boost theta-e enough to remove most or all MLCINH along and just south of the front, with convergence on/near the front being the primary convective forcing. Surface dewpoints commonly will reach the upper 50s to low 60s F in the warm sector. Modified forecast soundings depict 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over near-frontal parts of MO this afternoon, decreasing to an eastward-narrowing corridor of 500-1200 J/kg peak MLCAPE over the Ohio Valley and into the WV/western VA uplands where weaker low- and middle-level lapse rates will be found. Though modest near-surface flow will limit lower boundary- layer hodograph size, deep shear will be more than adequate for supercells, with effective-shear magnitudes commonly 50-60 kt. However, upscale clustering and mixed modes are also possible. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today along a corridor from northern Missouri into the Ohio Valley, with large hail expected. Damaging gusts are possible, and a marginal tornado threat also exists. ...Synopsis... The major mid/upper-level influence on convective potential today, and for the next few days, will be a high-amplitude, positively tilted, synoptic-scale trough now extending from the northern Rockies southwestward to offshore from southern CA. Two accompanying, closed cyclones were noted in moisture-channel imagery -- the largest centered about 150 nm west of LAX, the smaller one over west-central NV. Both cyclones are forecast to devolve to open shortwave troughs through the period, as an upstream perturbation -- now over the interior Northwest -- digs southward in the backside cyclonic-flow field. Meanwhile, the synoptic trough itself will shift eastward by 12Z to an axial position near DIK-LND-BCE-YUM, then offshore from central/southern Baja. Ridging aloft will amplify slightly and drift eastward across the central/southern Plains. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over extreme western KS, with quasistationary to slow-moving warm front extending across central parts of KS/MO to near SDF and central WV. The eastern part of this boundary may be shunted southward over the middle Ohio Valley and WV today by precip. The KS low is expected to ripple east-northeastward on the northward-drifting warm front toward MKC, and weaken through the period, with the warm front reaching perhaps 80-120 nm north of its initial position in MO/IL/IN. Meanwhile, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO, at or near a lee trough intersection with the front. The resulting low should migrate along the boundary tonight, across southwestern/central KS. A dryline was analyzed from a frontal intersection near GBD across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin to the Big Bend area. The dryline should mix eastward this afternoon to western OK and west-central TX, before retreating westward overnight, and is expected to remain capped for deep convective potential this period. ...MO to central Appalachians... An ongoing, broken swath of precip, with widely scattered thunderstorms, was apparent in radar composites from southern IN into portions of WV. This activity should shift east-southeastward through the remainder of the morning and continue largely as non-severe. However, isolated large hail or strong gusts may occur from any sustained, relatively discrete activity near the southern part of the precip plume. The main convective episode should occur from around midafternoon into this evening, as scattered thunderstorms develop near the front. With a strongly front-parallel component to mean flow, activity should move along or just north of the surface boundary, offering large hail and sporadic damaging to marginally severe gusts. Local boundary processes (e.g., interaction between storm and vorticity-rich outflow boundary or front) may alter local low-level shear favorably enough for some tornado potential, though this threat appears isolated and conditional, given the lack of greater boundary-layer moisture. Although weak height rises are forecast across the region as the synoptic ridge to the west amplifies, associated effects on large-scale motion should be too small to impact convective potential. Diurnal heating and moist advection will boost theta-e enough to remove most or all MLCINH along and just south of the front, with convergence on/near the front being the primary convective forcing. Surface dewpoints commonly will reach the upper 50s to low 60s F in the warm sector. Modified forecast soundings depict 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over near-frontal parts of MO this afternoon, decreasing to an eastward-narrowing corridor of 500-1200 J/kg peak MLCAPE over the Ohio Valley and into the WV/western VA uplands where weaker low- and middle-level lapse rates will be found. Though modest near-surface flow will limit lower boundary- layer hodograph size, deep shear will be more than adequate for supercells, with effective-shear magnitudes commonly 50-60 kt. However, upscale clustering and mixed modes are also possible. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today along a corridor from northern Missouri into the Ohio Valley, with large hail expected. Damaging gusts are possible, and a marginal tornado threat also exists. ...Synopsis... The major mid/upper-level influence on convective potential today, and for the next few days, will be a high-amplitude, positively tilted, synoptic-scale trough now extending from the northern Rockies southwestward to offshore from southern CA. Two accompanying, closed cyclones were noted in moisture-channel imagery -- the largest centered about 150 nm west of LAX, the smaller one over west-central NV. Both cyclones are forecast to devolve to open shortwave troughs through the period, as an upstream perturbation -- now over the interior Northwest -- digs southward in the backside cyclonic-flow field. Meanwhile, the synoptic trough itself will shift eastward by 12Z to an axial position near DIK-LND-BCE-YUM, then offshore from central/southern Baja. Ridging aloft will amplify slightly and drift eastward across the central/southern Plains. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over extreme western KS, with quasistationary to slow-moving warm front extending across central parts of KS/MO to near SDF and central WV. The eastern part of this boundary may be shunted southward over the middle Ohio Valley and WV today by precip. The KS low is expected to ripple east-northeastward on the northward-drifting warm front toward MKC, and weaken through the period, with the warm front reaching perhaps 80-120 nm north of its initial position in MO/IL/IN. Meanwhile, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO, at or near a lee trough intersection with the front. The resulting low should migrate along the boundary tonight, across southwestern/central KS. A dryline was analyzed from a frontal intersection near GBD across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin to the Big Bend area. The dryline should mix eastward this afternoon to western OK and west-central TX, before retreating westward overnight, and is expected to remain capped for deep convective potential this period. ...MO to central Appalachians... An ongoing, broken swath of precip, with widely scattered thunderstorms, was apparent in radar composites from southern IN into portions of WV. This activity should shift east-southeastward through the remainder of the morning and continue largely as non-severe. However, isolated large hail or strong gusts may occur from any sustained, relatively discrete activity near the southern part of the precip plume. The main convective episode should occur from around midafternoon into this evening, as scattered thunderstorms develop near the front. With a strongly front-parallel component to mean flow, activity should move along or just north of the surface boundary, offering large hail and sporadic damaging to marginally severe gusts. Local boundary processes (e.g., interaction between storm and vorticity-rich outflow boundary or front) may alter local low-level shear favorably enough for some tornado potential, though this threat appears isolated and conditional, given the lack of greater boundary-layer moisture. Although weak height rises are forecast across the region as the synoptic ridge to the west amplifies, associated effects on large-scale motion should be too small to impact convective potential. Diurnal heating and moist advection will boost theta-e enough to remove most or all MLCINH along and just south of the front, with convergence on/near the front being the primary convective forcing. Surface dewpoints commonly will reach the upper 50s to low 60s F in the warm sector. Modified forecast soundings depict 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over near-frontal parts of MO this afternoon, decreasing to an eastward-narrowing corridor of 500-1200 J/kg peak MLCAPE over the Ohio Valley and into the WV/western VA uplands where weaker low- and middle-level lapse rates will be found. Though modest near-surface flow will limit lower boundary- layer hodograph size, deep shear will be more than adequate for supercells, with effective-shear magnitudes commonly 50-60 kt. However, upscale clustering and mixed modes are also possible. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today along a corridor from northern Missouri into the Ohio Valley, with large hail expected. Damaging gusts are possible, and a marginal tornado threat also exists. ...Synopsis... The major mid/upper-level influence on convective potential today, and for the next few days, will be a high-amplitude, positively tilted, synoptic-scale trough now extending from the northern Rockies southwestward to offshore from southern CA. Two accompanying, closed cyclones were noted in moisture-channel imagery -- the largest centered about 150 nm west of LAX, the smaller one over west-central NV. Both cyclones are forecast to devolve to open shortwave troughs through the period, as an upstream perturbation -- now over the interior Northwest -- digs southward in the backside cyclonic-flow field. Meanwhile, the synoptic trough itself will shift eastward by 12Z to an axial position near DIK-LND-BCE-YUM, then offshore from central/southern Baja. Ridging aloft will amplify slightly and drift eastward across the central/southern Plains. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over extreme western KS, with quasistationary to slow-moving warm front extending across central parts of KS/MO to near SDF and central WV. The eastern part of this boundary may be shunted southward over the middle Ohio Valley and WV today by precip. The KS low is expected to ripple east-northeastward on the northward-drifting warm front toward MKC, and weaken through the period, with the warm front reaching perhaps 80-120 nm north of its initial position in MO/IL/IN. Meanwhile, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO, at or near a lee trough intersection with the front. The resulting low should migrate along the boundary tonight, across southwestern/central KS. A dryline was analyzed from a frontal intersection near GBD across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin to the Big Bend area. The dryline should mix eastward this afternoon to western OK and west-central TX, before retreating westward overnight, and is expected to remain capped for deep convective potential this period. ...MO to central Appalachians... An ongoing, broken swath of precip, with widely scattered thunderstorms, was apparent in radar composites from southern IN into portions of WV. This activity should shift east-southeastward through the remainder of the morning and continue largely as non-severe. However, isolated large hail or strong gusts may occur from any sustained, relatively discrete activity near the southern part of the precip plume. The main convective episode should occur from around midafternoon into this evening, as scattered thunderstorms develop near the front. With a strongly front-parallel component to mean flow, activity should move along or just north of the surface boundary, offering large hail and sporadic damaging to marginally severe gusts. Local boundary processes (e.g., interaction between storm and vorticity-rich outflow boundary or front) may alter local low-level shear favorably enough for some tornado potential, though this threat appears isolated and conditional, given the lack of greater boundary-layer moisture. Although weak height rises are forecast across the region as the synoptic ridge to the west amplifies, associated effects on large-scale motion should be too small to impact convective potential. Diurnal heating and moist advection will boost theta-e enough to remove most or all MLCINH along and just south of the front, with convergence on/near the front being the primary convective forcing. Surface dewpoints commonly will reach the upper 50s to low 60s F in the warm sector. Modified forecast soundings depict 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over near-frontal parts of MO this afternoon, decreasing to an eastward-narrowing corridor of 500-1200 J/kg peak MLCAPE over the Ohio Valley and into the WV/western VA uplands where weaker low- and middle-level lapse rates will be found. Though modest near-surface flow will limit lower boundary- layer hodograph size, deep shear will be more than adequate for supercells, with effective-shear magnitudes commonly 50-60 kt. However, upscale clustering and mixed modes are also possible. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today along a corridor from northern Missouri into the Ohio Valley, with large hail expected. Damaging gusts are possible, and a marginal tornado threat also exists. ...Synopsis... The major mid/upper-level influence on convective potential today, and for the next few days, will be a high-amplitude, positively tilted, synoptic-scale trough now extending from the northern Rockies southwestward to offshore from southern CA. Two accompanying, closed cyclones were noted in moisture-channel imagery -- the largest centered about 150 nm west of LAX, the smaller one over west-central NV. Both cyclones are forecast to devolve to open shortwave troughs through the period, as an upstream perturbation -- now over the interior Northwest -- digs southward in the backside cyclonic-flow field. Meanwhile, the synoptic trough itself will shift eastward by 12Z to an axial position near DIK-LND-BCE-YUM, then offshore from central/southern Baja. Ridging aloft will amplify slightly and drift eastward across the central/southern Plains. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over extreme western KS, with quasistationary to slow-moving warm front extending across central parts of KS/MO to near SDF and central WV. The eastern part of this boundary may be shunted southward over the middle Ohio Valley and WV today by precip. The KS low is expected to ripple east-northeastward on the northward-drifting warm front toward MKC, and weaken through the period, with the warm front reaching perhaps 80-120 nm north of its initial position in MO/IL/IN. Meanwhile, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO, at or near a lee trough intersection with the front. The resulting low should migrate along the boundary tonight, across southwestern/central KS. A dryline was analyzed from a frontal intersection near GBD across the TX South Plains and Permian Basin to the Big Bend area. The dryline should mix eastward this afternoon to western OK and west-central TX, before retreating westward overnight, and is expected to remain capped for deep convective potential this period. ...MO to central Appalachians... An ongoing, broken swath of precip, with widely scattered thunderstorms, was apparent in radar composites from southern IN into portions of WV. This activity should shift east-southeastward through the remainder of the morning and continue largely as non-severe. However, isolated large hail or strong gusts may occur from any sustained, relatively discrete activity near the southern part of the precip plume. The main convective episode should occur from around midafternoon into this evening, as scattered thunderstorms develop near the front. With a strongly front-parallel component to mean flow, activity should move along or just north of the surface boundary, offering large hail and sporadic damaging to marginally severe gusts. Local boundary processes (e.g., interaction between storm and vorticity-rich outflow boundary or front) may alter local low-level shear favorably enough for some tornado potential, though this threat appears isolated and conditional, given the lack of greater boundary-layer moisture. Although weak height rises are forecast across the region as the synoptic ridge to the west amplifies, associated effects on large-scale motion should be too small to impact convective potential. Diurnal heating and moist advection will boost theta-e enough to remove most or all MLCINH along and just south of the front, with convergence on/near the front being the primary convective forcing. Surface dewpoints commonly will reach the upper 50s to low 60s F in the warm sector. Modified forecast soundings depict 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over near-frontal parts of MO this afternoon, decreasing to an eastward-narrowing corridor of 500-1200 J/kg peak MLCAPE over the Ohio Valley and into the WV/western VA uplands where weaker low- and middle-level lapse rates will be found. Though modest near-surface flow will limit lower boundary- layer hodograph size, deep shear will be more than adequate for supercells, with effective-shear magnitudes commonly 50-60 kt. However, upscale clustering and mixed modes are also possible. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 03/31/2024 Read more