Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z On Day 3/Tuesday, a positively tilted mid/upper-level trough will move east-southeastward over the central/southern Plains, while a separate northern-stream jet streak digs southward across the northern/central Plains and MS Valley. This will promote breezy/gusty northerly post-frontal surface winds across much of the Great Plains. While generally cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions for most areas, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible where fuels are dry. Over the Rio Grande in south TX, these breezy winds will overlap downslope-aided lower RH, favoring locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities. Thereafter, the strong post-frontal winds will overspread the MS, OH, and TN Valleys on Day 4/Wednesday, before shifting eastward into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Thursday. Preceding rainfall and somewhat marginal RH reductions should generally temper fire-weather concerns, though elevated conditions cannot be ruled out for areas that miss out on substantial rainfall. For Days 6-7/Friday-Saturday, medium-range guidance and ensembles are in very good agreement, depicting high-amplitude large-scale troughs over the East and West -- characteristic of an omega block pattern. Strong meridional flow ahead of the western CONUS trough and antecedent drying will promote strong surface winds and low RH across the central/southern High Plains both days. Given the above-average predictability pattern, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for each day. A gap in the 70-percent probabilities was added for Day 6/Friday to account for preceding rainfall over northeast NM and far southeast CO, though these areas may need to be connected if fuels can dry out sufficiently. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z On Day 3/Tuesday, a positively tilted mid/upper-level trough will move east-southeastward over the central/southern Plains, while a separate northern-stream jet streak digs southward across the northern/central Plains and MS Valley. This will promote breezy/gusty northerly post-frontal surface winds across much of the Great Plains. While generally cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions for most areas, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible where fuels are dry. Over the Rio Grande in south TX, these breezy winds will overlap downslope-aided lower RH, favoring locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities. Thereafter, the strong post-frontal winds will overspread the MS, OH, and TN Valleys on Day 4/Wednesday, before shifting eastward into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic on Day 5/Thursday. Preceding rainfall and somewhat marginal RH reductions should generally temper fire-weather concerns, though elevated conditions cannot be ruled out for areas that miss out on substantial rainfall. For Days 6-7/Friday-Saturday, medium-range guidance and ensembles are in very good agreement, depicting high-amplitude large-scale troughs over the East and West -- characteristic of an omega block pattern. Strong meridional flow ahead of the western CONUS trough and antecedent drying will promote strong surface winds and low RH across the central/southern High Plains both days. Given the above-average predictability pattern, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added for each day. A gap in the 70-percent probabilities was added for Day 6/Friday to account for preceding rainfall over northeast NM and far southeast CO, though these areas may need to be connected if fuels can dry out sufficiently. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Mar 31 21:34:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL/IN... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce large hail later this afternoon into tonight from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana. Isolated large hail and/or wind damage may also occur this afternoon from southern West Virginia into south central Virginia. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the previous forecast. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...MO/IL to VA through tonight... A largely east-west oriented baroclinic zone will drift slowly northward as a warm front across MO/IL, well east of lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO. The potential for surface-based storms along the warm front appears questionable, given lingering capping with a relatively warm elevated mixed layer atop the moistening boundary layer. Much of the convection through the period will likely be elevated atop the frontal surface and tied to low-level warm advection. There will be sufficient cloud-layer shear for supercells capable of producing large hail, but confidence in specific storm development this afternoon (see MD #315 for additional information) versus tonight is relatively low. Thus, will maintain the conditional outlook area with few changes. Farther east, some convection is ongoing in a loose cluster across southern WV in association with weak low-level warm advection. Some expansion of the weakly unstable warm sector is expected into VA through the afternoon, and a couple of storms could persist along this corridor to near the VA/NC by mid-late afternoon. There will be a conditional threat for a somewhat high-based supercell or two with an accompanying threat for isolated large hail and/or damaging outflow gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL/IN... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce large hail later this afternoon into tonight from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana. Isolated large hail and/or wind damage may also occur this afternoon from southern West Virginia into south central Virginia. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the previous forecast. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...MO/IL to VA through tonight... A largely east-west oriented baroclinic zone will drift slowly northward as a warm front across MO/IL, well east of lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO. The potential for surface-based storms along the warm front appears questionable, given lingering capping with a relatively warm elevated mixed layer atop the moistening boundary layer. Much of the convection through the period will likely be elevated atop the frontal surface and tied to low-level warm advection. There will be sufficient cloud-layer shear for supercells capable of producing large hail, but confidence in specific storm development this afternoon (see MD #315 for additional information) versus tonight is relatively low. Thus, will maintain the conditional outlook area with few changes. Farther east, some convection is ongoing in a loose cluster across southern WV in association with weak low-level warm advection. Some expansion of the weakly unstable warm sector is expected into VA through the afternoon, and a couple of storms could persist along this corridor to near the VA/NC by mid-late afternoon. There will be a conditional threat for a somewhat high-based supercell or two with an accompanying threat for isolated large hail and/or damaging outflow gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL/IN... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce large hail later this afternoon into tonight from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana. Isolated large hail and/or wind damage may also occur this afternoon from southern West Virginia into south central Virginia. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the previous forecast. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...MO/IL to VA through tonight... A largely east-west oriented baroclinic zone will drift slowly northward as a warm front across MO/IL, well east of lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO. The potential for surface-based storms along the warm front appears questionable, given lingering capping with a relatively warm elevated mixed layer atop the moistening boundary layer. Much of the convection through the period will likely be elevated atop the frontal surface and tied to low-level warm advection. There will be sufficient cloud-layer shear for supercells capable of producing large hail, but confidence in specific storm development this afternoon (see MD #315 for additional information) versus tonight is relatively low. Thus, will maintain the conditional outlook area with few changes. Farther east, some convection is ongoing in a loose cluster across southern WV in association with weak low-level warm advection. Some expansion of the weakly unstable warm sector is expected into VA through the afternoon, and a couple of storms could persist along this corridor to near the VA/NC by mid-late afternoon. There will be a conditional threat for a somewhat high-based supercell or two with an accompanying threat for isolated large hail and/or damaging outflow gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL/IN... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce large hail later this afternoon into tonight from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana. Isolated large hail and/or wind damage may also occur this afternoon from southern West Virginia into south central Virginia. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the previous forecast. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...MO/IL to VA through tonight... A largely east-west oriented baroclinic zone will drift slowly northward as a warm front across MO/IL, well east of lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO. The potential for surface-based storms along the warm front appears questionable, given lingering capping with a relatively warm elevated mixed layer atop the moistening boundary layer. Much of the convection through the period will likely be elevated atop the frontal surface and tied to low-level warm advection. There will be sufficient cloud-layer shear for supercells capable of producing large hail, but confidence in specific storm development this afternoon (see MD #315 for additional information) versus tonight is relatively low. Thus, will maintain the conditional outlook area with few changes. Farther east, some convection is ongoing in a loose cluster across southern WV in association with weak low-level warm advection. Some expansion of the weakly unstable warm sector is expected into VA through the afternoon, and a couple of storms could persist along this corridor to near the VA/NC by mid-late afternoon. There will be a conditional threat for a somewhat high-based supercell or two with an accompanying threat for isolated large hail and/or damaging outflow gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL/IN... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce large hail later this afternoon into tonight from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana. Isolated large hail and/or wind damage may also occur this afternoon from southern West Virginia into south central Virginia. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the previous forecast. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...MO/IL to VA through tonight... A largely east-west oriented baroclinic zone will drift slowly northward as a warm front across MO/IL, well east of lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO. The potential for surface-based storms along the warm front appears questionable, given lingering capping with a relatively warm elevated mixed layer atop the moistening boundary layer. Much of the convection through the period will likely be elevated atop the frontal surface and tied to low-level warm advection. There will be sufficient cloud-layer shear for supercells capable of producing large hail, but confidence in specific storm development this afternoon (see MD #315 for additional information) versus tonight is relatively low. Thus, will maintain the conditional outlook area with few changes. Farther east, some convection is ongoing in a loose cluster across southern WV in association with weak low-level warm advection. Some expansion of the weakly unstable warm sector is expected into VA through the afternoon, and a couple of storms could persist along this corridor to near the VA/NC by mid-late afternoon. There will be a conditional threat for a somewhat high-based supercell or two with an accompanying threat for isolated large hail and/or damaging outflow gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL/IN... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce large hail later this afternoon into tonight from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana. Isolated large hail and/or wind damage may also occur this afternoon from southern West Virginia into south central Virginia. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the previous forecast. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...MO/IL to VA through tonight... A largely east-west oriented baroclinic zone will drift slowly northward as a warm front across MO/IL, well east of lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO. The potential for surface-based storms along the warm front appears questionable, given lingering capping with a relatively warm elevated mixed layer atop the moistening boundary layer. Much of the convection through the period will likely be elevated atop the frontal surface and tied to low-level warm advection. There will be sufficient cloud-layer shear for supercells capable of producing large hail, but confidence in specific storm development this afternoon (see MD #315 for additional information) versus tonight is relatively low. Thus, will maintain the conditional outlook area with few changes. Farther east, some convection is ongoing in a loose cluster across southern WV in association with weak low-level warm advection. Some expansion of the weakly unstable warm sector is expected into VA through the afternoon, and a couple of storms could persist along this corridor to near the VA/NC by mid-late afternoon. There will be a conditional threat for a somewhat high-based supercell or two with an accompanying threat for isolated large hail and/or damaging outflow gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL/IN... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce large hail later this afternoon into tonight from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana. Isolated large hail and/or wind damage may also occur this afternoon from southern West Virginia into south central Virginia. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the previous forecast. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...MO/IL to VA through tonight... A largely east-west oriented baroclinic zone will drift slowly northward as a warm front across MO/IL, well east of lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO. The potential for surface-based storms along the warm front appears questionable, given lingering capping with a relatively warm elevated mixed layer atop the moistening boundary layer. Much of the convection through the period will likely be elevated atop the frontal surface and tied to low-level warm advection. There will be sufficient cloud-layer shear for supercells capable of producing large hail, but confidence in specific storm development this afternoon (see MD #315 for additional information) versus tonight is relatively low. Thus, will maintain the conditional outlook area with few changes. Farther east, some convection is ongoing in a loose cluster across southern WV in association with weak low-level warm advection. Some expansion of the weakly unstable warm sector is expected into VA through the afternoon, and a couple of storms could persist along this corridor to near the VA/NC by mid-late afternoon. There will be a conditional threat for a somewhat high-based supercell or two with an accompanying threat for isolated large hail and/or damaging outflow gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL/IN... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce large hail later this afternoon into tonight from northern Missouri to central Illinois/Indiana. Isolated large hail and/or wind damage may also occur this afternoon from southern West Virginia into south central Virginia. ...20Z Update... No changes were made to the previous forecast. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...MO/IL to VA through tonight... A largely east-west oriented baroclinic zone will drift slowly northward as a warm front across MO/IL, well east of lee cyclogenesis across eastern CO. The potential for surface-based storms along the warm front appears questionable, given lingering capping with a relatively warm elevated mixed layer atop the moistening boundary layer. Much of the convection through the period will likely be elevated atop the frontal surface and tied to low-level warm advection. There will be sufficient cloud-layer shear for supercells capable of producing large hail, but confidence in specific storm development this afternoon (see MD #315 for additional information) versus tonight is relatively low. Thus, will maintain the conditional outlook area with few changes. Farther east, some convection is ongoing in a loose cluster across southern WV in association with weak low-level warm advection. Some expansion of the weakly unstable warm sector is expected into VA through the afternoon, and a couple of storms could persist along this corridor to near the VA/NC by mid-late afternoon. There will be a conditional threat for a somewhat high-based supercell or two with an accompanying threat for isolated large hail and/or damaging outflow gusts. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS-PECOS... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level shortwave trough will move slowly east across the southern Plains. The mid-level jet streak associated with this trough will be across the southern High Plains. Beneath this strongest jet streak, a deeply mixed airmass will be present and very strong surface winds (30+ mph) are expected. However, relative humidity has more uncertainty. Relative humidity is expected to be less than 20 percent across much of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas to the Big Bend. This is where the Critical delineation is present. Farther north, the forecast is more uncertain, based on the position of the surface low, winds may be strong or quite weak across portions of the Texas Panhandle. In addition, cool and moist air (potentially some precipitation) is expected to move in from the northwest. This will limit fire weather concerns as well. Therefore, uncertainty is high and the forecast may change, but the current Elevated and Critical areas are most representative of the latest forecast information. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS-PECOS... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level shortwave trough will move slowly east across the southern Plains. The mid-level jet streak associated with this trough will be across the southern High Plains. Beneath this strongest jet streak, a deeply mixed airmass will be present and very strong surface winds (30+ mph) are expected. However, relative humidity has more uncertainty. Relative humidity is expected to be less than 20 percent across much of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas to the Big Bend. This is where the Critical delineation is present. Farther north, the forecast is more uncertain, based on the position of the surface low, winds may be strong or quite weak across portions of the Texas Panhandle. In addition, cool and moist air (potentially some precipitation) is expected to move in from the northwest. This will limit fire weather concerns as well. Therefore, uncertainty is high and the forecast may change, but the current Elevated and Critical areas are most representative of the latest forecast information. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS-PECOS... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level shortwave trough will move slowly east across the southern Plains. The mid-level jet streak associated with this trough will be across the southern High Plains. Beneath this strongest jet streak, a deeply mixed airmass will be present and very strong surface winds (30+ mph) are expected. However, relative humidity has more uncertainty. Relative humidity is expected to be less than 20 percent across much of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas to the Big Bend. This is where the Critical delineation is present. Farther north, the forecast is more uncertain, based on the position of the surface low, winds may be strong or quite weak across portions of the Texas Panhandle. In addition, cool and moist air (potentially some precipitation) is expected to move in from the northwest. This will limit fire weather concerns as well. Therefore, uncertainty is high and the forecast may change, but the current Elevated and Critical areas are most representative of the latest forecast information. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS-PECOS... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level shortwave trough will move slowly east across the southern Plains. The mid-level jet streak associated with this trough will be across the southern High Plains. Beneath this strongest jet streak, a deeply mixed airmass will be present and very strong surface winds (30+ mph) are expected. However, relative humidity has more uncertainty. Relative humidity is expected to be less than 20 percent across much of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas to the Big Bend. This is where the Critical delineation is present. Farther north, the forecast is more uncertain, based on the position of the surface low, winds may be strong or quite weak across portions of the Texas Panhandle. In addition, cool and moist air (potentially some precipitation) is expected to move in from the northwest. This will limit fire weather concerns as well. Therefore, uncertainty is high and the forecast may change, but the current Elevated and Critical areas are most representative of the latest forecast information. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS-PECOS... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level shortwave trough will move slowly east across the southern Plains. The mid-level jet streak associated with this trough will be across the southern High Plains. Beneath this strongest jet streak, a deeply mixed airmass will be present and very strong surface winds (30+ mph) are expected. However, relative humidity has more uncertainty. Relative humidity is expected to be less than 20 percent across much of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas to the Big Bend. This is where the Critical delineation is present. Farther north, the forecast is more uncertain, based on the position of the surface low, winds may be strong or quite weak across portions of the Texas Panhandle. In addition, cool and moist air (potentially some precipitation) is expected to move in from the northwest. This will limit fire weather concerns as well. Therefore, uncertainty is high and the forecast may change, but the current Elevated and Critical areas are most representative of the latest forecast information. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE TRANS-PECOS... No changes were made to the ongoing forecast. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level shortwave trough will move slowly east across the southern Plains. The mid-level jet streak associated with this trough will be across the southern High Plains. Beneath this strongest jet streak, a deeply mixed airmass will be present and very strong surface winds (30+ mph) are expected. However, relative humidity has more uncertainty. Relative humidity is expected to be less than 20 percent across much of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas to the Big Bend. This is where the Critical delineation is present. Farther north, the forecast is more uncertain, based on the position of the surface low, winds may be strong or quite weak across portions of the Texas Panhandle. In addition, cool and moist air (potentially some precipitation) is expected to move in from the northwest. This will limit fire weather concerns as well. Therefore, uncertainty is high and the forecast may change, but the current Elevated and Critical areas are most representative of the latest forecast information. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0315 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0315 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Areas affected...northern Missouri and adjacent portions of southern Iowa/northwestern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 311558Z - 311830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An initial period of increasing thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of northern Missouri into southeastern Iowa and and northwestern Illinois his afternoon. This may include strong thunderstorms posing a risk of severe hail for an hour or two early this afternoon across parts of northwestern Missouri, before a broader area of generally weaker thunderstorms evolves while spreading northeastward. DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is evident within a narrow corridor, roughly west-northwest of the St. Joseph through Chillicothe MO vicinity. This is rooted above a near-surface inversion layer, along/above a strengthening frontal zone, aided by ascent supported by weak to modest low-level warm advection. Beneath anticyclonic flow within the crest of broad mid/upper ridging east of the southern Rockies into the Appalachians, mid/upper support for convection, if any, appears subtle. However, latest model output indicates increasing probabilities for thunderstorm initiation west-northwest through north of the Chillicothe vicinity by 17-18Z, where/when forecast soundings indicate modest conditional and convective instability in the presence of strong convective layer shear. This environment may be conducive to the evolution of an initial supercell structure of two, which may pose a risk for severe hail. Thereafter, guidance suggests warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air will tend to gradually spread across and north of the surface warm frontal zone. As this occurs, the warm advection driven convection, while perhaps becoming more widespread, may tend to become increasingly displaced to the north of the better instability near and south of the frontal zonal, resulting in diminishing risk for severe hail. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX... LAT...LON 39909505 40619549 40839287 40629147 40239104 39749232 39739339 39909505 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected to occur over a broad region from the southern Plains, the Ozarks, portions of the Ohio Valley, and into a small part of the Mid-Atlantic. Large to very-large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible. The severe threat will peak afternoon/evening in the southern Plains with the greatest threat for the Ohio Valley vicinity being the evening/overnight period. ...Synopsis... A rather broad, positively tilted upper trough will be positioned within the Four Corners region. A mid-level jet streak will move northeastward through the Trans-Pecos and into Red River region by early evening. This feature is forecast to be weakening during the afternoon as it shifts northeast. As the mid-level jet moves into the Midwest during the evening, a short-wave trough is expected to intensify in the Upper Midwest, with mid-level winds increasing across the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a modest surface mass response is anticipated in the southern Plains. Guidance generally depicts a modest surface low developing in western/central Oklahoma. A dryline will be pendant from this feature and provide a focus for convective development during the afternoon. This surface low will track northeastward along with its parent upper trough along nearly stationary boundary from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Some deepening of this low may occur very late in the period as the upper wave intensifies. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper-level trough ejects into the region, sufficient moisture for high-based convection should exist in the Texas Panhandle and parts of the South Plains. A few convectively enhanced gusts may occur with this activity. Buoyancy should remain too limited for more than small hail. ...Oklahoma/Texas... Between cloud cover and a capping inversion aloft, storm development along the dryline should hold off until the mid/late afternoon when greater mid-level ascent arrives. Strong deep-layer shear should promote supercell storm structures at least initially. Hodographs will be long and generally straight, but there are also veer-back signatures that could indicate some potential for a messier storm mode. Even so, potential for large to very-large hail is evident given the shear and mid-level lapse rates. The tornado risk should be mitigated to some extent by the overall weak low-level shear. That being said, supercells that can be maintained into the early evening (00-03Z) will see a brief window of increased tornado potential as the low-level jet modestly strengthens. Farther south into central Texas, forcing will be a bit weaker and capping a touch stronger. Storms that do develop will likely have supercellular characteristics. Large-hail and damaging winds are the most likely hazards. ...Ozarks into Ohio Valley... Some warm advection driven convection may be ongoing early in the period across parts of these regions. These storms will likely be elevated with a risk for large hail and isolated damaging winds. By the afternoon, greater potential for surface-based storms will exist from the triple point near the KS/OK border and along the cold front in southeast Kansas into Missouri. These storms will at least initially be supercells with potential for very-large hail. Storms are expected to grow upscale with a greater risk of damaging winds. While not overly strong, low-level shear should remain sufficient for a threat of QLCS circulations/tornadoes. It is possible that initially elevated storms may become near surface based during the afternoon in the Ohio Valley. Additional storms will likely move in from the west later in the evening overnight as the shortwave trough/surface low move northeastward. Damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes would be possible with this activity. The hail threat is a bit uncertain given the potential for more linear storm modes. However, large hail will remain possible. ...Parts of Mid-Atlantic... Overall storm coverage is uncertain given the generally neutral mid-level height changes through the period. Some model solutions do produce convection along the stationary surface boundary. Given strong mid-level winds and modestly steep lapse rates aloft, marginally severe hail and isolated damaging winds could occur with the stronger storms. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected to occur over a broad region from the southern Plains, the Ozarks, portions of the Ohio Valley, and into a small part of the Mid-Atlantic. Large to very-large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible. The severe threat will peak afternoon/evening in the southern Plains with the greatest threat for the Ohio Valley vicinity being the evening/overnight period. ...Synopsis... A rather broad, positively tilted upper trough will be positioned within the Four Corners region. A mid-level jet streak will move northeastward through the Trans-Pecos and into Red River region by early evening. This feature is forecast to be weakening during the afternoon as it shifts northeast. As the mid-level jet moves into the Midwest during the evening, a short-wave trough is expected to intensify in the Upper Midwest, with mid-level winds increasing across the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a modest surface mass response is anticipated in the southern Plains. Guidance generally depicts a modest surface low developing in western/central Oklahoma. A dryline will be pendant from this feature and provide a focus for convective development during the afternoon. This surface low will track northeastward along with its parent upper trough along nearly stationary boundary from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Some deepening of this low may occur very late in the period as the upper wave intensifies. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper-level trough ejects into the region, sufficient moisture for high-based convection should exist in the Texas Panhandle and parts of the South Plains. A few convectively enhanced gusts may occur with this activity. Buoyancy should remain too limited for more than small hail. ...Oklahoma/Texas... Between cloud cover and a capping inversion aloft, storm development along the dryline should hold off until the mid/late afternoon when greater mid-level ascent arrives. Strong deep-layer shear should promote supercell storm structures at least initially. Hodographs will be long and generally straight, but there are also veer-back signatures that could indicate some potential for a messier storm mode. Even so, potential for large to very-large hail is evident given the shear and mid-level lapse rates. The tornado risk should be mitigated to some extent by the overall weak low-level shear. That being said, supercells that can be maintained into the early evening (00-03Z) will see a brief window of increased tornado potential as the low-level jet modestly strengthens. Farther south into central Texas, forcing will be a bit weaker and capping a touch stronger. Storms that do develop will likely have supercellular characteristics. Large-hail and damaging winds are the most likely hazards. ...Ozarks into Ohio Valley... Some warm advection driven convection may be ongoing early in the period across parts of these regions. These storms will likely be elevated with a risk for large hail and isolated damaging winds. By the afternoon, greater potential for surface-based storms will exist from the triple point near the KS/OK border and along the cold front in southeast Kansas into Missouri. These storms will at least initially be supercells with potential for very-large hail. Storms are expected to grow upscale with a greater risk of damaging winds. While not overly strong, low-level shear should remain sufficient for a threat of QLCS circulations/tornadoes. It is possible that initially elevated storms may become near surface based during the afternoon in the Ohio Valley. Additional storms will likely move in from the west later in the evening overnight as the shortwave trough/surface low move northeastward. Damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes would be possible with this activity. The hail threat is a bit uncertain given the potential for more linear storm modes. However, large hail will remain possible. ...Parts of Mid-Atlantic... Overall storm coverage is uncertain given the generally neutral mid-level height changes through the period. Some model solutions do produce convection along the stationary surface boundary. Given strong mid-level winds and modestly steep lapse rates aloft, marginally severe hail and isolated damaging winds could occur with the stronger storms. ..Wendt.. 03/31/2024 Read more