Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move eastward into the northeastern U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances eastward from the Eastern Seaboard into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the front early in the day, and then move offshore during the afternoon. Some of these could be associated with an isolated and marginal severe threat. Additional storms, associated with a severe threat, could develop over parts of the Florida Peninsula in the afternoon. On Wednesday, predictability appears to be too low to add a severe threat area. ...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8... An area of surface high pressure is forecast to move from the central U.S. on Thursday to the Eastern Seaboard on Sunday. Dry and cool air, associated with the high pressure system, will likely keep the potential low for thunderstorm development from Thursday to Saturday. On Sunday, low-level moisture return in the wake of the high is forecast to take place across the Great Plains, as an upper-level trough moves through the central U.S. Strong thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat, would be possible ahead of the trough during the afternoon and evening across parts of the central U.S. However, the scenario put forward by some of the models is highly uncertain at this extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4... An upper-level low is forecast to move eastward into the northeastern U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front advances eastward from the Eastern Seaboard into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the front early in the day, and then move offshore during the afternoon. Some of these could be associated with an isolated and marginal severe threat. Additional storms, associated with a severe threat, could develop over parts of the Florida Peninsula in the afternoon. On Wednesday, predictability appears to be too low to add a severe threat area. ...Thursday/Day 5 to Sunday/Day 8... An area of surface high pressure is forecast to move from the central U.S. on Thursday to the Eastern Seaboard on Sunday. Dry and cool air, associated with the high pressure system, will likely keep the potential low for thunderstorm development from Thursday to Saturday. On Sunday, low-level moisture return in the wake of the high is forecast to take place across the Great Plains, as an upper-level trough moves through the central U.S. Strong thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat, would be possible ahead of the trough during the afternoon and evening across parts of the central U.S. However, the scenario put forward by some of the models is highly uncertain at this extended range. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Tuesday from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, and southward into the central Gulf Coast states. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible across a broad area. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest from central Kentucky east-northeastward into West Virginia. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. As instability increases across the warm sector during the day, widespread convective initiation is expected. Numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with a large MCS moving eastward into the central Appalachians by evening. Additional storms are expected to develop along and near a front in the Mid-Atlantic. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1000 J/kg during the afternoon across much of the moist airmass. Although instability should remain somewhat modest, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will support a severe threat in most areas. While supercells will be possible, the more favored mode could be multicellular, as several line segments develop and organize during the afternoon. Wind damage will be associated with the faster-moving line segments, while large hail will be most common with rotating cells. Supercells, or the more the intense QLCS circulations could develop a tornado threat. The greatest tornado threat is forecast to be from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia, where a low-level jet should become focused in the late afternoon and early evening. ...Central Gulf Coast States... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will enable the airmass to become unstable by afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range during the afternoon ahead of the front. Scattered thunderstorms will likely initiate from near the front eastward across parts of the moist airmass. Strong deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the front will be favorable for a severe threat, especially in the northern Gulf Coast states where large-scale ascent will be more favorable. Wind damage and hail will be possible with the stronger multicells. An isolated tornado threat may also develop as low-level shear becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Tuesday from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, and southward into the central Gulf Coast states. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible across a broad area. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest from central Kentucky east-northeastward into West Virginia. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. As instability increases across the warm sector during the day, widespread convective initiation is expected. Numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with a large MCS moving eastward into the central Appalachians by evening. Additional storms are expected to develop along and near a front in the Mid-Atlantic. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1000 J/kg during the afternoon across much of the moist airmass. Although instability should remain somewhat modest, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will support a severe threat in most areas. While supercells will be possible, the more favored mode could be multicellular, as several line segments develop and organize during the afternoon. Wind damage will be associated with the faster-moving line segments, while large hail will be most common with rotating cells. Supercells, or the more the intense QLCS circulations could develop a tornado threat. The greatest tornado threat is forecast to be from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia, where a low-level jet should become focused in the late afternoon and early evening. ...Central Gulf Coast States... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will enable the airmass to become unstable by afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range during the afternoon ahead of the front. Scattered thunderstorms will likely initiate from near the front eastward across parts of the moist airmass. Strong deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the front will be favorable for a severe threat, especially in the northern Gulf Coast states where large-scale ascent will be more favorable. Wind damage and hail will be possible with the stronger multicells. An isolated tornado threat may also develop as low-level shear becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Tuesday from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, and southward into the central Gulf Coast states. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible across a broad area. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest from central Kentucky east-northeastward into West Virginia. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. As instability increases across the warm sector during the day, widespread convective initiation is expected. Numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with a large MCS moving eastward into the central Appalachians by evening. Additional storms are expected to develop along and near a front in the Mid-Atlantic. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1000 J/kg during the afternoon across much of the moist airmass. Although instability should remain somewhat modest, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will support a severe threat in most areas. While supercells will be possible, the more favored mode could be multicellular, as several line segments develop and organize during the afternoon. Wind damage will be associated with the faster-moving line segments, while large hail will be most common with rotating cells. Supercells, or the more the intense QLCS circulations could develop a tornado threat. The greatest tornado threat is forecast to be from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia, where a low-level jet should become focused in the late afternoon and early evening. ...Central Gulf Coast States... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will enable the airmass to become unstable by afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range during the afternoon ahead of the front. Scattered thunderstorms will likely initiate from near the front eastward across parts of the moist airmass. Strong deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the front will be favorable for a severe threat, especially in the northern Gulf Coast states where large-scale ascent will be more favorable. Wind damage and hail will be possible with the stronger multicells. An isolated tornado threat may also develop as low-level shear becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected on Tuesday from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, and southward into the central Gulf Coast states. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible across a broad area. The tornado threat is expected to be greatest from central Kentucky east-northeastward into West Virginia. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. As instability increases across the warm sector during the day, widespread convective initiation is expected. Numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with a large MCS moving eastward into the central Appalachians by evening. Additional storms are expected to develop along and near a front in the Mid-Atlantic. Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1000 J/kg during the afternoon across much of the moist airmass. Although instability should remain somewhat modest, large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will support a severe threat in most areas. While supercells will be possible, the more favored mode could be multicellular, as several line segments develop and organize during the afternoon. Wind damage will be associated with the faster-moving line segments, while large hail will be most common with rotating cells. Supercells, or the more the intense QLCS circulations could develop a tornado threat. The greatest tornado threat is forecast to be from eastern Kentucky into West Virginia, where a low-level jet should become focused in the late afternoon and early evening. ...Central Gulf Coast States... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, will enable the airmass to become unstable by afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range during the afternoon ahead of the front. Scattered thunderstorms will likely initiate from near the front eastward across parts of the moist airmass. Strong deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the front will be favorable for a severe threat, especially in the northern Gulf Coast states where large-scale ascent will be more favorable. Wind damage and hail will be possible with the stronger multicells. An isolated tornado threat may also develop as low-level shear becomes maximized in the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS INTO THE BIG BEND... ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level shortwave trough will move slowly east across the southern Plains. The mid-level jet streak associated with this trough will be across the southern High Plains. Beneath this strongest jet streak, a deeply mixed airmass will be present and very strong surface winds (30+ mph) are expected. However, relative humidity has more uncertainty. Relative humidity is expected to be less than 20 percent across much of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas to the Big Bend. This is where the Critical delineation is present. Farther north, the forecast is more uncertain, based on the position of the surface low, winds may be strong or quite weak across portions of the Texas Panhandle. In addition, cool and moist air (potentially some precipitation) is expected to move in from the northwest. This will limit fire weather concerns as well. Therefore, uncertainty is high and the forecast may change, but the current Elevated and Critical areas are most representative of the latest forecast information. ..Bentley.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS INTO THE BIG BEND... ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level shortwave trough will move slowly east across the southern Plains. The mid-level jet streak associated with this trough will be across the southern High Plains. Beneath this strongest jet streak, a deeply mixed airmass will be present and very strong surface winds (30+ mph) are expected. However, relative humidity has more uncertainty. Relative humidity is expected to be less than 20 percent across much of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas to the Big Bend. This is where the Critical delineation is present. Farther north, the forecast is more uncertain, based on the position of the surface low, winds may be strong or quite weak across portions of the Texas Panhandle. In addition, cool and moist air (potentially some precipitation) is expected to move in from the northwest. This will limit fire weather concerns as well. Therefore, uncertainty is high and the forecast may change, but the current Elevated and Critical areas are most representative of the latest forecast information. ..Bentley.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS INTO THE BIG BEND... ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level shortwave trough will move slowly east across the southern Plains. The mid-level jet streak associated with this trough will be across the southern High Plains. Beneath this strongest jet streak, a deeply mixed airmass will be present and very strong surface winds (30+ mph) are expected. However, relative humidity has more uncertainty. Relative humidity is expected to be less than 20 percent across much of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas to the Big Bend. This is where the Critical delineation is present. Farther north, the forecast is more uncertain, based on the position of the surface low, winds may be strong or quite weak across portions of the Texas Panhandle. In addition, cool and moist air (potentially some precipitation) is expected to move in from the northwest. This will limit fire weather concerns as well. Therefore, uncertainty is high and the forecast may change, but the current Elevated and Critical areas are most representative of the latest forecast information. ..Bentley.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS INTO THE BIG BEND... ...Synopsis... On Monday, a mid-level shortwave trough will move slowly east across the southern Plains. The mid-level jet streak associated with this trough will be across the southern High Plains. Beneath this strongest jet streak, a deeply mixed airmass will be present and very strong surface winds (30+ mph) are expected. However, relative humidity has more uncertainty. Relative humidity is expected to be less than 20 percent across much of Southeast New Mexico and West Texas to the Big Bend. This is where the Critical delineation is present. Farther north, the forecast is more uncertain, based on the position of the surface low, winds may be strong or quite weak across portions of the Texas Panhandle. In addition, cool and moist air (potentially some precipitation) is expected to move in from the northwest. This will limit fire weather concerns as well. Therefore, uncertainty is high and the forecast may change, but the current Elevated and Critical areas are most representative of the latest forecast information. ..Bentley.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong mid-level flow has started to overspread the Southwest and will slowly drift east toward the southern High Plains through the day. Persistent lee cyclogenesis ahead of the associated mid-level trough will lead to a sub-1000mb surface low across eastern Colorado. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient and lead to windy conditions across much of the southern and central High Plains. The strongest winds are expected across New Mexico and into the western Oklahoma Panhandle where the strongest winds aloft will overspread the deeply mixed airmass. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph and relative humidity of 8 to 13 percent are expected. Several days of dry and breezy conditions have dried fuels substantially across the region with critically dry fuels now present across much of the southern and central High Plains. ..Bentley.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong mid-level flow has started to overspread the Southwest and will slowly drift east toward the southern High Plains through the day. Persistent lee cyclogenesis ahead of the associated mid-level trough will lead to a sub-1000mb surface low across eastern Colorado. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient and lead to windy conditions across much of the southern and central High Plains. The strongest winds are expected across New Mexico and into the western Oklahoma Panhandle where the strongest winds aloft will overspread the deeply mixed airmass. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph and relative humidity of 8 to 13 percent are expected. Several days of dry and breezy conditions have dried fuels substantially across the region with critically dry fuels now present across much of the southern and central High Plains. ..Bentley.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong mid-level flow has started to overspread the Southwest and will slowly drift east toward the southern High Plains through the day. Persistent lee cyclogenesis ahead of the associated mid-level trough will lead to a sub-1000mb surface low across eastern Colorado. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient and lead to windy conditions across much of the southern and central High Plains. The strongest winds are expected across New Mexico and into the western Oklahoma Panhandle where the strongest winds aloft will overspread the deeply mixed airmass. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph and relative humidity of 8 to 13 percent are expected. Several days of dry and breezy conditions have dried fuels substantially across the region with critically dry fuels now present across much of the southern and central High Plains. ..Bentley.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong mid-level flow has started to overspread the Southwest and will slowly drift east toward the southern High Plains through the day. Persistent lee cyclogenesis ahead of the associated mid-level trough will lead to a sub-1000mb surface low across eastern Colorado. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient and lead to windy conditions across much of the southern and central High Plains. The strongest winds are expected across New Mexico and into the western Oklahoma Panhandle where the strongest winds aloft will overspread the deeply mixed airmass. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph and relative humidity of 8 to 13 percent are expected. Several days of dry and breezy conditions have dried fuels substantially across the region with critically dry fuels now present across much of the southern and central High Plains. ..Bentley.. 03/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread severe threat, with a potential for large hail, wind damage and tornadoes, is expected on Monday and Monday night from parts of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Very large hail will be possible across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks. The greatest tornado threat is expected from southern Missouri into southern Illinois Monday evening. The severe threat is also expected to impact parts of the Ohio Valley, especially during the evening and overnight period. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... A positively tilted upper-level trough will move through the Desert Southwest on Monday, as an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet moves through the base of the system. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread a moist and unstable airmass across the southern Plains during the afternoon. At the surface, a low will deepen in west Texas, moving eastward into Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will be in place across the eastern half of Texas, and from central and eastern Oklahoma extending eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon to the east of a dryline from north Texas northward to near a triple point in central Oklahoma. The airmass should be uncapped, allowing for widespread convective development from the mid to late afternoon into the evening. Thunderstorms will also likely develop in the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley during the evening, as the mid-level jet approaches the region from the southwest. Within the exit region of the mid-level jet, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is forecast to advect quickly eastward across the southern Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings in east-central Oklahoma at 00Z/Tuesday suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates within this plume will be in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This, combined with strong deep-layer shear, will support a large-hail threat with supercells. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant and intense storms. The potential for very large hail may extend as far northeast as the Ozarks, as the exit region of the mid-level jet passes over the area during the early to mid evening. From southern Missouri into southern Illinois, a warm front will likely be in place. The surface low is forecast to move east-northeastward along this corridor. Forecast soundings ahead of the surface low from 03Z to 06Z/Tuesday suggest that 0-3 km storm-relative helicity will increase into 250 to 350 m2/s2 range, as a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet strengthens. This should be favorable for tornadoes with the more dominant supercells that interact with the warm front. A potential for strong tornadoes will exist. A large MCS is forecast to organize from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley during the evening. The stronger storms within this MCS will also have wind-damage potential. ...Mid to Upper Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place on Monday across the eastern U.S. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located from southern Ohio east-southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. This boundary will likely be a focus for convective development from the daytime hours into the overnight period. Although instability is forecast to remain weak near the boundary, strong deep-layer shear will be in place. This should support an isolated severe threat, potentially persisting for an extended period of time. Hail and isolated damaging gusts will likely be the primary concerns. The severe threat will likely be more isolated with eastward extent, mainly due to more limited low-level moisture content across the Mid-Atlantic. ..Broyles.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread severe threat, with a potential for large hail, wind damage and tornadoes, is expected on Monday and Monday night from parts of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Very large hail will be possible across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks. The greatest tornado threat is expected from southern Missouri into southern Illinois Monday evening. The severe threat is also expected to impact parts of the Ohio Valley, especially during the evening and overnight period. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... A positively tilted upper-level trough will move through the Desert Southwest on Monday, as an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet moves through the base of the system. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread a moist and unstable airmass across the southern Plains during the afternoon. At the surface, a low will deepen in west Texas, moving eastward into Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will be in place across the eastern half of Texas, and from central and eastern Oklahoma extending eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon to the east of a dryline from north Texas northward to near a triple point in central Oklahoma. The airmass should be uncapped, allowing for widespread convective development from the mid to late afternoon into the evening. Thunderstorms will also likely develop in the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley during the evening, as the mid-level jet approaches the region from the southwest. Within the exit region of the mid-level jet, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is forecast to advect quickly eastward across the southern Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings in east-central Oklahoma at 00Z/Tuesday suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates within this plume will be in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This, combined with strong deep-layer shear, will support a large-hail threat with supercells. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant and intense storms. The potential for very large hail may extend as far northeast as the Ozarks, as the exit region of the mid-level jet passes over the area during the early to mid evening. From southern Missouri into southern Illinois, a warm front will likely be in place. The surface low is forecast to move east-northeastward along this corridor. Forecast soundings ahead of the surface low from 03Z to 06Z/Tuesday suggest that 0-3 km storm-relative helicity will increase into 250 to 350 m2/s2 range, as a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet strengthens. This should be favorable for tornadoes with the more dominant supercells that interact with the warm front. A potential for strong tornadoes will exist. A large MCS is forecast to organize from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley during the evening. The stronger storms within this MCS will also have wind-damage potential. ...Mid to Upper Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place on Monday across the eastern U.S. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located from southern Ohio east-southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. This boundary will likely be a focus for convective development from the daytime hours into the overnight period. Although instability is forecast to remain weak near the boundary, strong deep-layer shear will be in place. This should support an isolated severe threat, potentially persisting for an extended period of time. Hail and isolated damaging gusts will likely be the primary concerns. The severe threat will likely be more isolated with eastward extent, mainly due to more limited low-level moisture content across the Mid-Atlantic. ..Broyles.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread severe threat, with a potential for large hail, wind damage and tornadoes, is expected on Monday and Monday night from parts of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Very large hail will be possible across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks. The greatest tornado threat is expected from southern Missouri into southern Illinois Monday evening. The severe threat is also expected to impact parts of the Ohio Valley, especially during the evening and overnight period. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... A positively tilted upper-level trough will move through the Desert Southwest on Monday, as an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet moves through the base of the system. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread a moist and unstable airmass across the southern Plains during the afternoon. At the surface, a low will deepen in west Texas, moving eastward into Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will be in place across the eastern half of Texas, and from central and eastern Oklahoma extending eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon to the east of a dryline from north Texas northward to near a triple point in central Oklahoma. The airmass should be uncapped, allowing for widespread convective development from the mid to late afternoon into the evening. Thunderstorms will also likely develop in the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley during the evening, as the mid-level jet approaches the region from the southwest. Within the exit region of the mid-level jet, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is forecast to advect quickly eastward across the southern Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings in east-central Oklahoma at 00Z/Tuesday suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates within this plume will be in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This, combined with strong deep-layer shear, will support a large-hail threat with supercells. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant and intense storms. The potential for very large hail may extend as far northeast as the Ozarks, as the exit region of the mid-level jet passes over the area during the early to mid evening. From southern Missouri into southern Illinois, a warm front will likely be in place. The surface low is forecast to move east-northeastward along this corridor. Forecast soundings ahead of the surface low from 03Z to 06Z/Tuesday suggest that 0-3 km storm-relative helicity will increase into 250 to 350 m2/s2 range, as a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet strengthens. This should be favorable for tornadoes with the more dominant supercells that interact with the warm front. A potential for strong tornadoes will exist. A large MCS is forecast to organize from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley during the evening. The stronger storms within this MCS will also have wind-damage potential. ...Mid to Upper Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place on Monday across the eastern U.S. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located from southern Ohio east-southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. This boundary will likely be a focus for convective development from the daytime hours into the overnight period. Although instability is forecast to remain weak near the boundary, strong deep-layer shear will be in place. This should support an isolated severe threat, potentially persisting for an extended period of time. Hail and isolated damaging gusts will likely be the primary concerns. The severe threat will likely be more isolated with eastward extent, mainly due to more limited low-level moisture content across the Mid-Atlantic. ..Broyles.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A widespread severe threat, with a potential for large hail, wind damage and tornadoes, is expected on Monday and Monday night from parts of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Very large hail will be possible across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks. The greatest tornado threat is expected from southern Missouri into southern Illinois Monday evening. The severe threat is also expected to impact parts of the Ohio Valley, especially during the evening and overnight period. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... A positively tilted upper-level trough will move through the Desert Southwest on Monday, as an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet moves through the base of the system. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread a moist and unstable airmass across the southern Plains during the afternoon. At the surface, a low will deepen in west Texas, moving eastward into Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will be in place across the eastern half of Texas, and from central and eastern Oklahoma extending eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon to the east of a dryline from north Texas northward to near a triple point in central Oklahoma. The airmass should be uncapped, allowing for widespread convective development from the mid to late afternoon into the evening. Thunderstorms will also likely develop in the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley during the evening, as the mid-level jet approaches the region from the southwest. Within the exit region of the mid-level jet, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is forecast to advect quickly eastward across the southern Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings in east-central Oklahoma at 00Z/Tuesday suggest that 700-500 mb lapse rates within this plume will be in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This, combined with strong deep-layer shear, will support a large-hail threat with supercells. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more dominant and intense storms. The potential for very large hail may extend as far northeast as the Ozarks, as the exit region of the mid-level jet passes over the area during the early to mid evening. From southern Missouri into southern Illinois, a warm front will likely be in place. The surface low is forecast to move east-northeastward along this corridor. Forecast soundings ahead of the surface low from 03Z to 06Z/Tuesday suggest that 0-3 km storm-relative helicity will increase into 250 to 350 m2/s2 range, as a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet strengthens. This should be favorable for tornadoes with the more dominant supercells that interact with the warm front. A potential for strong tornadoes will exist. A large MCS is forecast to organize from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley during the evening. The stronger storms within this MCS will also have wind-damage potential. ...Mid to Upper Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place on Monday across the eastern U.S. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located from southern Ohio east-southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. This boundary will likely be a focus for convective development from the daytime hours into the overnight period. Although instability is forecast to remain weak near the boundary, strong deep-layer shear will be in place. This should support an isolated severe threat, potentially persisting for an extended period of time. Hail and isolated damaging gusts will likely be the primary concerns. The severe threat will likely be more isolated with eastward extent, mainly due to more limited low-level moisture content across the Mid-Atlantic. ..Broyles.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected along a corridor from northern Missouri into the Ohio Valley today. Some of this activity has the potential to produce large hail and perhaps a few damaging gusts. ...Northern MO into the Ohio Valley... Large-scale upper pattern will not change appreciably during the day1 period. Ridging will dominate much of the eastern US as troughing holds across the southwestern parts of the country. This flow regime will, however, allow a notable synoptic front to advance a bit north, from near the OH River to around I70 by the end of the period. PW has gradually risen across the warm sector with one-inch values fairly common along/just south of the boundary. Latest surface data suggests the leading edge of 60F dew points are advancing north across OK and will soon spread into southeast KS/ southwest MO. Deep southwesterly flow will permit additional boundary-layer moistening across MO into the lower OH Valley through the period. With weak midlevel height rises expected, convective initiation will likely be significantly influenced by low-level warm advection along the nose of the LLJ. This may result in episodic bouts of robust convection along/near the frontal zone. Early this morning, scattered thunderstorms continue from southern IN/northern KY into southern WV. This activity should spread southeast toward the southern middle Atlantic later today. Renewed convection is expected late this morning/early this afternoon across northern MO near the front, where warm advection will be focused. This activity should then spread/develop downstream into IL/IN. Forecast soundings suggest any convection north of the boundary will be elevated and should pose mostly a hail threat as steep lapse rates will be maintained along this corridor. Wind profiles suggest supercells are possible, though some clustering is likely, especially along the cool side of the boundary. The greatest risk for damaging winds will be noted with storms that evolve near/south of the wind shift. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected along a corridor from northern Missouri into the Ohio Valley today. Some of this activity has the potential to produce large hail and perhaps a few damaging gusts. ...Northern MO into the Ohio Valley... Large-scale upper pattern will not change appreciably during the day1 period. Ridging will dominate much of the eastern US as troughing holds across the southwestern parts of the country. This flow regime will, however, allow a notable synoptic front to advance a bit north, from near the OH River to around I70 by the end of the period. PW has gradually risen across the warm sector with one-inch values fairly common along/just south of the boundary. Latest surface data suggests the leading edge of 60F dew points are advancing north across OK and will soon spread into southeast KS/ southwest MO. Deep southwesterly flow will permit additional boundary-layer moistening across MO into the lower OH Valley through the period. With weak midlevel height rises expected, convective initiation will likely be significantly influenced by low-level warm advection along the nose of the LLJ. This may result in episodic bouts of robust convection along/near the frontal zone. Early this morning, scattered thunderstorms continue from southern IN/northern KY into southern WV. This activity should spread southeast toward the southern middle Atlantic later today. Renewed convection is expected late this morning/early this afternoon across northern MO near the front, where warm advection will be focused. This activity should then spread/develop downstream into IL/IN. Forecast soundings suggest any convection north of the boundary will be elevated and should pose mostly a hail threat as steep lapse rates will be maintained along this corridor. Wind profiles suggest supercells are possible, though some clustering is likely, especially along the cool side of the boundary. The greatest risk for damaging winds will be noted with storms that evolve near/south of the wind shift. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/31/2024 Read more