Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible today over the Ohio Valley with the broader severe weather risk including parts of the Southeast. Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Synopsis... A complex and strongly dynamic spring storm system will potentially result in a large area of severe-weather risk from the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley southward into portions of the Deep South, including AL/GA and the western Carolinas late tonight. A potent trough over the Upper Midwest this morning will evolve into a very strong mid-level low over the southwest Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. An intense mid-level speed max over northern Mexico/TX, in association with the southern portion of the larger-scale central U.S. trough, will rapidly move east-northeast during the period and intensify to 125-kt at 500 mb over the southern Appalachians by daybreak Wednesday. Intense 12-hr midlevel height falls are forecast across much of the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and the northern Gulf States, where values in excess of 200m are expected during the latter half of the period. The synoptic front this morning is draped across the OH Valley and will likely advance north due to the digging trough. ...OH Valley... Water-vapor imagery loop overnight showed a southern-stream short-wave trough associated with this morning's severe thunderstorm activity straddling the OH River in central KY and southern IN. This early-day thunderstorm complex will probably pose a risk for wind damage and perhaps a couple of tornadoes before it moves into the central Appalachians towards midday (see MCD #341 for short-term details). In its wake, a trailing outflow boundary/effective warm frontal zone will likely advance northward into IN/OH later today with lower to mid 60s progged to near I-70. Models continue to show an appreciable window of opportunity in which cloud breaks/heating and increasing low-level moisture contribute to moderate destabilization during the afternoon. Have adjusted the western envelope of severe probabilities farther west across IN to account for greater destabilization than earlier forecast, but otherwise have left the outlook unchanged across the OH Valley. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop by early to mid afternoon with discrete supercells evolving from the more intense updrafts. Tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging gusts are expected with the supercells that mature across the warm sector. Enlarged and elongated hodographs imply fast storm motions and the possibility for several cyclic tornadic supercells, some of which may yield strong and long-lived tornadoes. Farther east, strong to severe storms may continue across the central Appalachians and perhaps move east into the Mid-Atlantic states. Hail/wind appear to be the primary hazards with this activity. ...Southeast this evening/tonight... Farther south and initially in the TN/MS/northern AL vicinity, severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon as the leading edge of stronger large-scale ascent impinges on the region. A moisture-rich airmass and wind profile favoring supercells, will favor a risk for all severe hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. Although it remains unclear with regard to daytime to evening storm evolution across MS/AL/TN, the approach of the 500-mb speed max and intense shear through a deep layer atop a moist/unstable boundary layer, suggest a bimodal severe threat will probably evolve this evening into the overnight. Model guidance indicates messy but organized storm modes within a larger area of convection will probably develop. Forecast soundings show 300-500 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH from central/eastern AL into GA during the evening and overnight. The risk for tornadoes, including a few strong tornadoes, will be possible with this activity eventually reaching the Carolinas and the eastern FL Panhandle late. ..Smith/Leitman.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible today over the Ohio Valley with the broader severe weather risk including parts of the Southeast. Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Synopsis... A complex and strongly dynamic spring storm system will potentially result in a large area of severe-weather risk from the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley southward into portions of the Deep South, including AL/GA and the western Carolinas late tonight. A potent trough over the Upper Midwest this morning will evolve into a very strong mid-level low over the southwest Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. An intense mid-level speed max over northern Mexico/TX, in association with the southern portion of the larger-scale central U.S. trough, will rapidly move east-northeast during the period and intensify to 125-kt at 500 mb over the southern Appalachians by daybreak Wednesday. Intense 12-hr midlevel height falls are forecast across much of the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and the northern Gulf States, where values in excess of 200m are expected during the latter half of the period. The synoptic front this morning is draped across the OH Valley and will likely advance north due to the digging trough. ...OH Valley... Water-vapor imagery loop overnight showed a southern-stream short-wave trough associated with this morning's severe thunderstorm activity straddling the OH River in central KY and southern IN. This early-day thunderstorm complex will probably pose a risk for wind damage and perhaps a couple of tornadoes before it moves into the central Appalachians towards midday (see MCD #341 for short-term details). In its wake, a trailing outflow boundary/effective warm frontal zone will likely advance northward into IN/OH later today with lower to mid 60s progged to near I-70. Models continue to show an appreciable window of opportunity in which cloud breaks/heating and increasing low-level moisture contribute to moderate destabilization during the afternoon. Have adjusted the western envelope of severe probabilities farther west across IN to account for greater destabilization than earlier forecast, but otherwise have left the outlook unchanged across the OH Valley. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop by early to mid afternoon with discrete supercells evolving from the more intense updrafts. Tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging gusts are expected with the supercells that mature across the warm sector. Enlarged and elongated hodographs imply fast storm motions and the possibility for several cyclic tornadic supercells, some of which may yield strong and long-lived tornadoes. Farther east, strong to severe storms may continue across the central Appalachians and perhaps move east into the Mid-Atlantic states. Hail/wind appear to be the primary hazards with this activity. ...Southeast this evening/tonight... Farther south and initially in the TN/MS/northern AL vicinity, severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon as the leading edge of stronger large-scale ascent impinges on the region. A moisture-rich airmass and wind profile favoring supercells, will favor a risk for all severe hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. Although it remains unclear with regard to daytime to evening storm evolution across MS/AL/TN, the approach of the 500-mb speed max and intense shear through a deep layer atop a moist/unstable boundary layer, suggest a bimodal severe threat will probably evolve this evening into the overnight. Model guidance indicates messy but organized storm modes within a larger area of convection will probably develop. Forecast soundings show 300-500 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH from central/eastern AL into GA during the evening and overnight. The risk for tornadoes, including a few strong tornadoes, will be possible with this activity eventually reaching the Carolinas and the eastern FL Panhandle late. ..Smith/Leitman.. 04/02/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Apr 2 11:47:03 UTC 2024.

WW 0072 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 72 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N HOP TO 10 WNW OWB TO 25 ENE EVV TO 40 NE EVV TO 40 SSW BMG. ..LEITMAN..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 72 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC147-021240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SPENCER KYC059-107-149-177-021240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAVIESS HOPKINS MCLEAN MUHLENBERG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0072 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 72 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N HOP TO 10 WNW OWB TO 25 ENE EVV TO 40 NE EVV TO 40 SSW BMG. ..LEITMAN..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 72 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC147-021240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SPENCER KYC059-107-149-177-021240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAVIESS HOPKINS MCLEAN MUHLENBERG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0072 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 72 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N HOP TO 10 WNW OWB TO 25 ENE EVV TO 40 NE EVV TO 40 SSW BMG. ..LEITMAN..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 72 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC147-021240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SPENCER KYC059-107-149-177-021240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAVIESS HOPKINS MCLEAN MUHLENBERG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0072 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 72 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N HOP TO 10 WNW OWB TO 25 ENE EVV TO 40 NE EVV TO 40 SSW BMG. ..LEITMAN..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 72 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC147-021240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SPENCER KYC059-107-149-177-021240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAVIESS HOPKINS MCLEAN MUHLENBERG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0072 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 72 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N HOP TO 10 WNW OWB TO 25 ENE EVV TO 40 NE EVV TO 40 SSW BMG. ..LEITMAN..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 72 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC147-021240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SPENCER KYC059-107-149-177-021240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAVIESS HOPKINS MCLEAN MUHLENBERG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0072 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 72 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N HOP TO 10 WNW OWB TO 25 ENE EVV TO 40 NE EVV TO 40 SSW BMG. ..LEITMAN..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 72 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC147-021240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SPENCER KYC059-107-149-177-021240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAVIESS HOPKINS MCLEAN MUHLENBERG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0340 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0340 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Areas affected...southern Indiana...northern Kentucky and southwest Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 020955Z - 021130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential is expected through late morning across parts of northern Kentucky, southern Indiana and southwest Ohio. Damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible with this activity and a watch will likely be needed in the next hour. DISCUSSION...Upstream convection across southern IL/western KY into southwest IN will continue to spread generally east this morning. While instability remains modest across the region, strong vertical shear is present and favorable for continued organized convection. An increase in lightning trends across southern IL and the background CAPE/shear environment suggest this activity will continue within the vicinity of an effective outflow/stationary front draped across southern IL/IN/southwest OH. Damaging gusts will be possible with generally linear/bowing storm mode. However, enlarged, curved low-level hodographs and 0-1 km SRH greater than 200 m2/s2 suggest some tornado risk also will accompany this activity. A tornado watch downstream from WW 72 will likely be needed in the next hour. It should be noted that additional severe potential will overspread this same area again later this afternoon. ..Leitman/Smith.. 04/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 38348725 38448684 38658611 39188463 39148416 38848386 38378367 38128378 37938425 37778548 37748687 37798731 38348725 Read more

WW 72 TORNADO IL IN KY MO 020700Z - 021300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 72 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri * Effective this Tuesday morning from 200 AM until 800 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms will continue to move east-northeast across the Watch overnight into the early morning. Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts are possible, in addition to a risk for a couple of tornadoes with the more intense cells or line segments. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south southwest of Farmington MO to 40 miles northeast of Evansville IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 69...WW 71... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0073 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 35 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..03/13/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 35 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-027-083-119-133-157-163-189-140040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CLINTON JERSEY MADISON MONROE RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR WASHINGTON MOC007-019-027-051-055-071-073-099-113-125-131-135-137-139-141- 151-161-163-173-183-186-187-189-219-221-510-140040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY COLE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN GASCONADE JEFFERSON LINCOLN MARIES MILLER MONITEAU MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN OSAGE PHELPS PIKE RALLS ST. CHARLES STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS WARREN WASHINGTON Read more

WW 0072 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 72 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW PAH TO 35 E MVN TO 35 SSW BMG. ..LEITMAN..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 72 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC059-069-127-151-165-185-193-021140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GALLATIN HARDIN MASSAC POPE SALINE WABASH WHITE INC051-125-129-147-163-173-021140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GIBSON PIKE POSEY SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK KYC033-055-059-101-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-225-233-021140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALDWELL CRITTENDEN DAVIESS Read more

WW 0072 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 72 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW SLO TO 40 SSW BMG. ..LEITMAN..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 72 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-021040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MASSAC PERRY POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WABASH WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON INC051-125-129-163-173-021040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GIBSON PIKE POSEY VANDERBURGH WARRICK KYC007-055-101-139-145-225-233-021040- Read more

MD 0339 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST INDIANA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0339 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of southeast Indiana into far southwest Ohio and northern Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 020810Z - 020945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible through early morning. Strong gusts and marginally severe hail to 1 inch diameter may accompany this activity. DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms near and north of the effective warm front draped across south-central IN will continue to shift east the next few hours. This activity is likely elevated given strong low-level inhibition and storms tracking just to the cool side of the surface boundary. However, strong vertical shear will continue to allow for organized storm structures within a modestly unstable airmass. Locally strong/damaging gusts and sporadic hail from 0.5 to 1.0 inches in diameter are possible with this activity. A watch is not currently expected with this ongoing activity, but one may be needed later this morning as upstream activity over southern IL spreads into a destabilizing airmass. ..Leitman/Smith.. 04/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND... LAT...LON 38708441 38708537 38668650 38718697 38888701 39378678 39518617 39418493 39248441 39138428 38808421 38708441 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward from the West Coast on Friday into the Desert Southwest on Saturday. Moisture return is forecast take place ahead of the trough across the southern and central Plains, with surface dewpoints reaching the 50s and possibly low 60s F, from north Texas into south-central Kansas. As large-scale ascent comes out into the southern and central Plains during the evening, scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible. Large hail and wind damage are expected to be the primary threats. There is still considerable uncertainty on Saturday, mainly due to the lack of low-level moisture and instability. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8... The upper-level low over the Desert Southwest is forecast to move into the north-central U.S. on Sunday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. Isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front. However, uncertainty is still considerable concerning the timing/placement of the front, and magnitude of instability. On Monday, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place across parts of the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. Strong thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon and evening. However, a lack of large-scale ascent suggests any severe threat that develops will remain unfocused. The potential for a more widespread severe threat may increase across the southern and central Plains on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves across the Desert Southwest. As forecast spatial uncertainty decreases for Monday into Tuesday, the addition of a 15 percent contour in later outlooks may considered. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward from the West Coast on Friday into the Desert Southwest on Saturday. Moisture return is forecast take place ahead of the trough across the southern and central Plains, with surface dewpoints reaching the 50s and possibly low 60s F, from north Texas into south-central Kansas. As large-scale ascent comes out into the southern and central Plains during the evening, scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible. Large hail and wind damage are expected to be the primary threats. There is still considerable uncertainty on Saturday, mainly due to the lack of low-level moisture and instability. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8... The upper-level low over the Desert Southwest is forecast to move into the north-central U.S. on Sunday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. Isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front. However, uncertainty is still considerable concerning the timing/placement of the front, and magnitude of instability. On Monday, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place across parts of the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. Strong thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon and evening. However, a lack of large-scale ascent suggests any severe threat that develops will remain unfocused. The potential for a more widespread severe threat may increase across the southern and central Plains on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves across the Desert Southwest. As forecast spatial uncertainty decreases for Monday into Tuesday, the addition of a 15 percent contour in later outlooks may considered. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward from the West Coast on Friday into the Desert Southwest on Saturday. Moisture return is forecast take place ahead of the trough across the southern and central Plains, with surface dewpoints reaching the 50s and possibly low 60s F, from north Texas into south-central Kansas. As large-scale ascent comes out into the southern and central Plains during the evening, scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible. Large hail and wind damage are expected to be the primary threats. There is still considerable uncertainty on Saturday, mainly due to the lack of low-level moisture and instability. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8... The upper-level low over the Desert Southwest is forecast to move into the north-central U.S. on Sunday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. Isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front. However, uncertainty is still considerable concerning the timing/placement of the front, and magnitude of instability. On Monday, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place across parts of the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. Strong thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon and evening. However, a lack of large-scale ascent suggests any severe threat that develops will remain unfocused. The potential for a more widespread severe threat may increase across the southern and central Plains on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves across the Desert Southwest. As forecast spatial uncertainty decreases for Monday into Tuesday, the addition of a 15 percent contour in later outlooks may considered. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward from the West Coast on Friday into the Desert Southwest on Saturday. Moisture return is forecast take place ahead of the trough across the southern and central Plains, with surface dewpoints reaching the 50s and possibly low 60s F, from north Texas into south-central Kansas. As large-scale ascent comes out into the southern and central Plains during the evening, scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible. Large hail and wind damage are expected to be the primary threats. There is still considerable uncertainty on Saturday, mainly due to the lack of low-level moisture and instability. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8... The upper-level low over the Desert Southwest is forecast to move into the north-central U.S. on Sunday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. Isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front. However, uncertainty is still considerable concerning the timing/placement of the front, and magnitude of instability. On Monday, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place across parts of the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. Strong thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon and evening. However, a lack of large-scale ascent suggests any severe threat that develops will remain unfocused. The potential for a more widespread severe threat may increase across the southern and central Plains on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves across the Desert Southwest. As forecast spatial uncertainty decreases for Monday into Tuesday, the addition of a 15 percent contour in later outlooks may considered. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward from the West Coast on Friday into the Desert Southwest on Saturday. Moisture return is forecast take place ahead of the trough across the southern and central Plains, with surface dewpoints reaching the 50s and possibly low 60s F, from north Texas into south-central Kansas. As large-scale ascent comes out into the southern and central Plains during the evening, scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible. Large hail and wind damage are expected to be the primary threats. There is still considerable uncertainty on Saturday, mainly due to the lack of low-level moisture and instability. ...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8... The upper-level low over the Desert Southwest is forecast to move into the north-central U.S. on Sunday, as a cold front advances eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. Isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front. However, uncertainty is still considerable concerning the timing/placement of the front, and magnitude of instability. On Monday, a moist airmass is forecast to be in place across parts of the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. Strong thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon and evening. However, a lack of large-scale ascent suggests any severe threat that develops will remain unfocused. The potential for a more widespread severe threat may increase across the southern and central Plains on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves across the Desert Southwest. As forecast spatial uncertainty decreases for Monday into Tuesday, the addition of a 15 percent contour in later outlooks may considered. Read more