Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were made with this update. Latest surface observations show dry/breezy conditions developing across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande in south-central TX. While these elevated to locally/briefly critical meteorological conditions should persist into early evening, below-normal fuel loading in this area suggests limited potential for large fires -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will amplify across the Great Lakes today with a deepening surface low across Indiana. Dry, northerly flow is expected across the entire Plains today from North Dakota to Texas. Fuels are moist across most of this region and temperatures are somewhat cool. Therefore, the fire potential should remain limited. Elsewhere in the CONUS fuels are moist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were made with this update. Latest surface observations show dry/breezy conditions developing across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande in south-central TX. While these elevated to locally/briefly critical meteorological conditions should persist into early evening, below-normal fuel loading in this area suggests limited potential for large fires -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will amplify across the Great Lakes today with a deepening surface low across Indiana. Dry, northerly flow is expected across the entire Plains today from North Dakota to Texas. Fuels are moist across most of this region and temperatures are somewhat cool. Therefore, the fire potential should remain limited. Elsewhere in the CONUS fuels are moist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were made with this update. Latest surface observations show dry/breezy conditions developing across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande in south-central TX. While these elevated to locally/briefly critical meteorological conditions should persist into early evening, below-normal fuel loading in this area suggests limited potential for large fires -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will amplify across the Great Lakes today with a deepening surface low across Indiana. Dry, northerly flow is expected across the entire Plains today from North Dakota to Texas. Fuels are moist across most of this region and temperatures are somewhat cool. Therefore, the fire potential should remain limited. Elsewhere in the CONUS fuels are moist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were made with this update. Latest surface observations show dry/breezy conditions developing across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande in south-central TX. While these elevated to locally/briefly critical meteorological conditions should persist into early evening, below-normal fuel loading in this area suggests limited potential for large fires -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will amplify across the Great Lakes today with a deepening surface low across Indiana. Dry, northerly flow is expected across the entire Plains today from North Dakota to Texas. Fuels are moist across most of this region and temperatures are somewhat cool. Therefore, the fire potential should remain limited. Elsewhere in the CONUS fuels are moist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were made with this update. Latest surface observations show dry/breezy conditions developing across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande in south-central TX. While these elevated to locally/briefly critical meteorological conditions should persist into early evening, below-normal fuel loading in this area suggests limited potential for large fires -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will amplify across the Great Lakes today with a deepening surface low across Indiana. Dry, northerly flow is expected across the entire Plains today from North Dakota to Texas. Fuels are moist across most of this region and temperatures are somewhat cool. Therefore, the fire potential should remain limited. Elsewhere in the CONUS fuels are moist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were made with this update. Latest surface observations show dry/breezy conditions developing across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande in south-central TX. While these elevated to locally/briefly critical meteorological conditions should persist into early evening, below-normal fuel loading in this area suggests limited potential for large fires -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will amplify across the Great Lakes today with a deepening surface low across Indiana. Dry, northerly flow is expected across the entire Plains today from North Dakota to Texas. Fuels are moist across most of this region and temperatures are somewhat cool. Therefore, the fire potential should remain limited. Elsewhere in the CONUS fuels are moist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were made with this update. Latest surface observations show dry/breezy conditions developing across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande in south-central TX. While these elevated to locally/briefly critical meteorological conditions should persist into early evening, below-normal fuel loading in this area suggests limited potential for large fires -- precluding highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will amplify across the Great Lakes today with a deepening surface low across Indiana. Dry, northerly flow is expected across the entire Plains today from North Dakota to Texas. Fuels are moist across most of this region and temperatures are somewhat cool. Therefore, the fire potential should remain limited. Elsewhere in the CONUS fuels are moist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0075 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 75 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 75 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-035-045-047-053-057-087-099-137-141-169-171-207- 213-217-219-221-227-021740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN CALLOWAY CASEY CHRISTIAN CLINTON CUMBERLAND GREEN HART LINCOLN LOGAN METCALFE MONROE RUSSELL SIMPSON TAYLOR TODD TRIGG WARREN TNC003-005-015-017-021-023-027-031-035-037-039-041-043-049-055- 061-071-077-079-081-083-085-087-099-101-109-111-117-119-125-133- 135-137-141-147-149-159-161-165-169-175-177-181-183-185-187-189- 021740- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD BENTON CANNON CARROLL CHEATHAM CHESTER CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND Read more

MD 0344 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 74... FOR PORTIONS OF WV
Mesoscale Discussion 0344 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0959 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Areas affected...Portions of WV Concerning...Tornado Watch 74... Valid 021459Z - 021630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 74 continues. SUMMARY...A substantial severe wind threat (70-90+ mph gusts), along with isolated tornadoes, will approach Charleston West Virginia and vicinity through noon. DISCUSSION...KHTS recently measured a significant severe wind gust to 80 kt (92 mph) with a compact but well organized cluster currently moving quickly eastward across parts of WV. Even though the airmass across this region remains only weakly unstable, very strong low-level and deep-layer shear is helping to compensate and provide convective organization. Recent radar data from KRLX shows enhanced inbound velocities embedded within the line that suggest 70-90+ mph wind gusts will likely continue to be a threat with this line as it approaches the Charleston WV metro and vicinity over the next hour (through noon EDT). In addition to this substantial severe/damaging wind threat, isolated tornadoes embedded within the line also appear possible given the strength of the low-level flow and related shear. ..Gleason.. 04/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...JKL... LAT...LON 38688203 38658123 38328078 37838091 37478126 37528198 37928258 38288217 38688203 Read more

WW 0074 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLF TO 20 ESE BKW TO 15 NNE SSU TO 30 SW EKN TO 20 S MGW. WW 74 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 021700Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346 ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC075-081-083-097-101-109-021700- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE POCAHONTAS RALEIGH RANDOLPH UPSHUR WEBSTER WYOMING THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0074 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLF TO 20 ESE BKW TO 15 NNE SSU TO 30 SW EKN TO 20 S MGW. WW 74 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 021700Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346 ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC075-081-083-097-101-109-021700- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE POCAHONTAS RALEIGH RANDOLPH UPSHUR WEBSTER WYOMING THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0074 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLF TO 20 ESE BKW TO 15 NNE SSU TO 30 SW EKN TO 20 S MGW. WW 74 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 021700Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346 ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC075-081-083-097-101-109-021700- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE POCAHONTAS RALEIGH RANDOLPH UPSHUR WEBSTER WYOMING THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0074 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLF TO 20 ESE BKW TO 15 NNE SSU TO 30 SW EKN TO 20 S MGW. WW 74 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 021700Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346 ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC075-081-083-097-101-109-021700- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE POCAHONTAS RALEIGH RANDOLPH UPSHUR WEBSTER WYOMING THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0074 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLF TO 20 ESE BKW TO 15 NNE SSU TO 30 SW EKN TO 20 S MGW. WW 74 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 021700Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346 ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC075-081-083-097-101-109-021700- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE POCAHONTAS RALEIGH RANDOLPH UPSHUR WEBSTER WYOMING THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0074 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLF TO 20 ESE BKW TO 15 NNE SSU TO 30 SW EKN TO 20 S MGW. WW 74 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 021700Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346 ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC075-081-083-097-101-109-021700- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE POCAHONTAS RALEIGH RANDOLPH UPSHUR WEBSTER WYOMING THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 74 TORNADO KY OH WV 021420Z - 021700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 74 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Extreme northeast Kentucky Extreme southern Ohio Southern West Virginia * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 1020 AM until 100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A well-developed squall line may persist for a few more hours as it moves from Kentucky into West Virginia this morning. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations will be possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles southwest of Huntington WV to 10 miles north northeast of Beckley WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 73... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 28050. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KY...SOUTHEAST IN...SOUTHERN OH...AND FAR WESTERN WV... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible through this evening over the Ohio Valley with the broader severe weather risk including parts of the Southeast. Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KY...SOUTHEAST IN...SOUTHERN OH...AND FAR WESTERN WV... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible through this evening over the Ohio Valley with the broader severe weather risk including parts of the Southeast. Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KY...SOUTHEAST IN...SOUTHERN OH...AND FAR WESTERN WV... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible through this evening over the Ohio Valley with the broader severe weather risk including parts of the Southeast. Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KY...SOUTHEAST IN...SOUTHERN OH...AND FAR WESTERN WV... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible through this evening over the Ohio Valley with the broader severe weather risk including parts of the Southeast. Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/02/2024 Read more