Severe Storms

WW 0074 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E JKL TO 35 SE HTS TO 15 SSW CRW TO 5 NNW CRW TO 20 SSW PKB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0344 ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 74 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC005-007-013-015-019-021-035-039-041-045-059-067-075-081-083- 087-097-101-109-021640- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BRAXTON CALHOUN CLAY FAYETTE GILMER JACKSON KANAWHA LEWIS LOGAN MINGO NICHOLAS POCAHONTAS RALEIGH RANDOLPH ROANE UPSHUR WEBSTER WYOMING THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0075 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 75 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 75 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-035-045-047-053-057-087-099-137-141-169-171-207- 213-217-219-221-227-021640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN CALLOWAY CASEY CHRISTIAN CLINTON CUMBERLAND GREEN HART LINCOLN LOGAN METCALFE MONROE RUSSELL SIMPSON TAYLOR TODD TRIGG WARREN TNC003-005-015-017-021-023-027-031-035-037-039-041-043-049-055- 061-071-077-079-081-083-085-087-099-101-109-111-117-119-125-133- 135-137-141-147-149-159-161-165-169-175-177-181-183-185-187-189- 021640- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD BENTON CANNON CARROLL CHEATHAM CHESTER CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND Read more

MD 0343 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 73... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY...EXTREME SOUTHERN OH...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN VA...AND WV
Mesoscale Discussion 0343 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0900 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Areas affected...Portions of eastern KY...extreme southern OH...extreme southwestern VA...and WV Concerning...Tornado Watch 73... Valid 021400Z - 021500Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 73 continues. SUMMARY...A damaging wind and isolated tornado threat may continue into parts of West Virginia this morning. Downstream watch issuance will be needed. DISCUSSION...A small, but well organized line of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning across parts of eastern KY and far southern OH. While instability remains weak per recent mesoanalysis estimates and various RAP forecast soundings (around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE), strong deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt will likely support continued convective organization as this line moves eastward into parts of WV and vicinity this morning. Damaging winds should remain the primary threat given the linear nature of the ongoing convection, but enough low-level shear is also present to support some risk for isolated tornadoes. A downstream watch will be issued shortly. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 37908400 38668314 38678209 38168108 37498163 37338231 37548361 37908400 Read more

MD 0342 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/MIDDLE TN AND WESTERN KY
Mesoscale Discussion 0342 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0832 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Areas affected...Portions of western/middle TN and western KY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 021332Z - 021500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Some severe threat will probably persist this morning as thunderstorms spread northeastward. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of convection is ongoing this morning over southwestern TN and vicinity. While the boundary layer is only modestly unstable per 12Z BNA sounding and recent RAP forecast soundings over western TN, strong deep-layer shear associated with a pronounced mid/upper-level jet is present over the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley. Given the somewhat linear nature of the ongoing cluster, strong to damaging winds should be the main threat in the near term. But, the presence of a strong southwesterly low-level jet and effective SRH around 250-300 m2/s2 suggests that tornadoes will also be a concern with either line-embedded circulations, or with any supercells that can develop and persist. Trends will be closely monitored for possible watch issuance, pending signs of greater convective organization/intensity. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 35388990 36298962 36878896 37048824 36948750 36668712 36158701 35558712 35128795 35028873 35388990 Read more

WW 0075 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 WNW DRT TO 45 SSE SAT TO 30 N PSX TO 30 W BPT. ..BROYLES..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...CRP...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-025-039-071-127-163-167-175-239-245-255-283-297-311-321- 323-361-469-479-507-160140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA BEE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS DIMMIT FRIO GALVESTON GOLIAD JACKSON JEFFERSON KARNES LA SALLE LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MATAGORDA MAVERICK ORANGE VICTORIA WEBB ZAVALA GMZ335-160140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GALVESTON BAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0074 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 44 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S DNV TO 40 WNW MIE TO 5 NNE FDY TO 25 W CLE. ..SQUITIERI..03/14/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...LMK...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 44 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-005-011-013-021-023-027-029-031-035-037-041-047-055-057- 059-063-065-071-075-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-107-109-117- 119-121-133-135-137-139-145-153-159-161-165-167-177-150040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BARTHOLOMEW BOONE BROWN CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR DELAWARE DUBOIS FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HAMILTON HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY JACKSON JAY JENNINGS JOHNSON KNOX LAWRENCE MADISON MARION MARTIN MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN ORANGE OWEN PARKE PUTNAM RANDOLPH RIPLEY RUSH SHELBY SULLIVAN TIPTON UNION VERMILLION VIGO WAYNE OHC003-011-017-021-023-027-033-037-041-043-045-047-049-057-061- Read more

WW 0073 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 73 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW LOZ TO 20 S LEX TO 35 NW JKL TO 55 N JKL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0343 ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 73 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC045-063-065-079-137-151-153-165-175-197-205-237-021540- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASEY ELLIOTT ESTILL GARRARD LINCOLN MADISON MAGOFFIN MENIFEE MORGAN POWELL ROWAN WOLFE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0073 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 73 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW LOZ TO 20 S LEX TO 35 NW JKL TO 55 N JKL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0343 ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 73 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC045-063-065-079-137-151-153-165-175-197-205-237-021540- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASEY ELLIOTT ESTILL GARRARD LINCOLN MADISON MAGOFFIN MENIFEE MORGAN POWELL ROWAN WOLFE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0073 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 73 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW LOZ TO 20 S LEX TO 35 NW JKL TO 55 N JKL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0343 ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 73 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC045-063-065-079-137-151-153-165-175-197-205-237-021540- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASEY ELLIOTT ESTILL GARRARD LINCOLN MADISON MAGOFFIN MENIFEE MORGAN POWELL ROWAN WOLFE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0073 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 73 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW LOZ TO 20 S LEX TO 35 NW JKL TO 55 N JKL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0343 ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 73 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC045-063-065-079-137-151-153-165-175-197-205-237-021540- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASEY ELLIOTT ESTILL GARRARD LINCOLN MADISON MAGOFFIN MENIFEE MORGAN POWELL ROWAN WOLFE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0073 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 73 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW LOZ TO 20 S LEX TO 35 NW JKL TO 55 N JKL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0343 ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 73 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC045-063-065-079-137-151-153-165-175-197-205-237-021540- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASEY ELLIOTT ESTILL GARRARD LINCOLN MADISON MAGOFFIN MENIFEE MORGAN POWELL ROWAN WOLFE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0073 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 73 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW LOZ TO 20 S LEX TO 35 NW JKL TO 55 N JKL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0343 ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 73 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC045-063-065-079-137-151-153-165-175-197-205-237-021540- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASEY ELLIOTT ESTILL GARRARD LINCOLN MADISON MAGOFFIN MENIFEE MORGAN POWELL ROWAN WOLFE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 73 TORNADO IN KY 021055Z - 021600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 73 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 655 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Indiana Central and Northern Kentucky * Effective this Tuesday morning from 655 AM until NOON EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A severe squall line will continue to move east across portions of the Ohio Valley this morning. A few tornadoes are possible with the stronger storm-scale circulations embedded within the line, in addition to the risk for scattered severe gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west southwest of Louisville KY to 55 miles east northeast of Lexington KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 72... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26050. ...Smith Read more

WW 0073 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 73 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N BWG TO 25 NNE BWG TO 15 WSW LEX TO 15 E LEX TO 55 ESE LUK. ..GLEASON..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 73 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-017-021-045-049-061-065-067-069-079-087-099-113-123-137- 151-155-161-167-173-181-197-217-229-021440- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH BOURBON BOYLE CASEY CLARK EDMONSON ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING GARRARD GREEN HART JESSAMINE LARUE LINCOLN MADISON MARION MASON MERCER MONTGOMERY NICHOLAS POWELL TAYLOR WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0073 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 73 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W BWG TO 40 NNE BWG TO 20 SW SDF TO 25 NW LEX TO 55 ESE LUK. ..LEITMAN..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 73 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC005-011-017-021-029-045-049-061-065-067-069-073-079-087-093- 097-099-113-123-137-151-155-161-167-173-179-181-197-201-209-215- 217-229-239-021340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BATH BOURBON BOYLE BULLITT CASEY CLARK EDMONSON ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING FRANKLIN GARRARD GREEN HARDIN HARRISON HART JESSAMINE LARUE LINCOLN MADISON MARION MASON MERCER MONTGOMERY NELSON NICHOLAS POWELL ROBERTSON SCOTT SPENCER TAYLOR WASHINGTON WOODFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0341 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 73... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0341 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 73... Valid 021216Z - 021345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 73 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue east across parts of central into eastern Kentucky this morning. Damaging gusts and a tornado or two remain possible. DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms across west-central KY has become somewhat less organized compared to an hour ago. This is likely due to some influence of low-level inhibition. Nevertheless, the VWP from KLVX continues to show favorable vertical shear for storm organization and low-level rotation. Instability is modest across the area, but sufficient to support severe storms given strong vertical shear. Fast storm motion will further contribute to damaging gust potential. Meanwhile, enlarged and curved low-level hodographs with 0-1 km SRH values greater than 175 m2/s2 in the presence of a moist boundary layer will support tornado potential. It should be noted this is the first round of strong to severe storms for today. Additional severe storms are expected this afternoon. ..Leitman.. 04/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...PAH... LAT...LON 38238627 38398483 38808405 38588363 37668368 37308535 37088669 37158711 37728685 38188651 38238627 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible today over the Ohio Valley with the broader severe weather risk including parts of the Southeast. Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Synopsis... A complex and strongly dynamic spring storm system will potentially result in a large area of severe-weather risk from the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley southward into portions of the Deep South, including AL/GA and the western Carolinas late tonight. A potent trough over the Upper Midwest this morning will evolve into a very strong mid-level low over the southwest Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. An intense mid-level speed max over northern Mexico/TX, in association with the southern portion of the larger-scale central U.S. trough, will rapidly move east-northeast during the period and intensify to 125-kt at 500 mb over the southern Appalachians by daybreak Wednesday. Intense 12-hr midlevel height falls are forecast across much of the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and the northern Gulf States, where values in excess of 200m are expected during the latter half of the period. The synoptic front this morning is draped across the OH Valley and will likely advance north due to the digging trough. ...OH Valley... Water-vapor imagery loop overnight showed a southern-stream short-wave trough associated with this morning's severe thunderstorm activity straddling the OH River in central KY and southern IN. This early-day thunderstorm complex will probably pose a risk for wind damage and perhaps a couple of tornadoes before it moves into the central Appalachians towards midday (see MCD #341 for short-term details). In its wake, a trailing outflow boundary/effective warm frontal zone will likely advance northward into IN/OH later today with lower to mid 60s progged to near I-70. Models continue to show an appreciable window of opportunity in which cloud breaks/heating and increasing low-level moisture contribute to moderate destabilization during the afternoon. Have adjusted the western envelope of severe probabilities farther west across IN to account for greater destabilization than earlier forecast, but otherwise have left the outlook unchanged across the OH Valley. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop by early to mid afternoon with discrete supercells evolving from the more intense updrafts. Tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging gusts are expected with the supercells that mature across the warm sector. Enlarged and elongated hodographs imply fast storm motions and the possibility for several cyclic tornadic supercells, some of which may yield strong and long-lived tornadoes. Farther east, strong to severe storms may continue across the central Appalachians and perhaps move east into the Mid-Atlantic states. Hail/wind appear to be the primary hazards with this activity. ...Southeast this evening/tonight... Farther south and initially in the TN/MS/northern AL vicinity, severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon as the leading edge of stronger large-scale ascent impinges on the region. A moisture-rich airmass and wind profile favoring supercells, will favor a risk for all severe hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. Although it remains unclear with regard to daytime to evening storm evolution across MS/AL/TN, the approach of the 500-mb speed max and intense shear through a deep layer atop a moist/unstable boundary layer, suggest a bimodal severe threat will probably evolve this evening into the overnight. Model guidance indicates messy but organized storm modes within a larger area of convection will probably develop. Forecast soundings show 300-500 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH from central/eastern AL into GA during the evening and overnight. The risk for tornadoes, including a few strong tornadoes, will be possible with this activity eventually reaching the Carolinas and the eastern FL Panhandle late. ..Smith/Leitman.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible today over the Ohio Valley with the broader severe weather risk including parts of the Southeast. Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Synopsis... A complex and strongly dynamic spring storm system will potentially result in a large area of severe-weather risk from the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley southward into portions of the Deep South, including AL/GA and the western Carolinas late tonight. A potent trough over the Upper Midwest this morning will evolve into a very strong mid-level low over the southwest Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. An intense mid-level speed max over northern Mexico/TX, in association with the southern portion of the larger-scale central U.S. trough, will rapidly move east-northeast during the period and intensify to 125-kt at 500 mb over the southern Appalachians by daybreak Wednesday. Intense 12-hr midlevel height falls are forecast across much of the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and the northern Gulf States, where values in excess of 200m are expected during the latter half of the period. The synoptic front this morning is draped across the OH Valley and will likely advance north due to the digging trough. ...OH Valley... Water-vapor imagery loop overnight showed a southern-stream short-wave trough associated with this morning's severe thunderstorm activity straddling the OH River in central KY and southern IN. This early-day thunderstorm complex will probably pose a risk for wind damage and perhaps a couple of tornadoes before it moves into the central Appalachians towards midday (see MCD #341 for short-term details). In its wake, a trailing outflow boundary/effective warm frontal zone will likely advance northward into IN/OH later today with lower to mid 60s progged to near I-70. Models continue to show an appreciable window of opportunity in which cloud breaks/heating and increasing low-level moisture contribute to moderate destabilization during the afternoon. Have adjusted the western envelope of severe probabilities farther west across IN to account for greater destabilization than earlier forecast, but otherwise have left the outlook unchanged across the OH Valley. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop by early to mid afternoon with discrete supercells evolving from the more intense updrafts. Tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging gusts are expected with the supercells that mature across the warm sector. Enlarged and elongated hodographs imply fast storm motions and the possibility for several cyclic tornadic supercells, some of which may yield strong and long-lived tornadoes. Farther east, strong to severe storms may continue across the central Appalachians and perhaps move east into the Mid-Atlantic states. Hail/wind appear to be the primary hazards with this activity. ...Southeast this evening/tonight... Farther south and initially in the TN/MS/northern AL vicinity, severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon as the leading edge of stronger large-scale ascent impinges on the region. A moisture-rich airmass and wind profile favoring supercells, will favor a risk for all severe hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. Although it remains unclear with regard to daytime to evening storm evolution across MS/AL/TN, the approach of the 500-mb speed max and intense shear through a deep layer atop a moist/unstable boundary layer, suggest a bimodal severe threat will probably evolve this evening into the overnight. Model guidance indicates messy but organized storm modes within a larger area of convection will probably develop. Forecast soundings show 300-500 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH from central/eastern AL into GA during the evening and overnight. The risk for tornadoes, including a few strong tornadoes, will be possible with this activity eventually reaching the Carolinas and the eastern FL Panhandle late. ..Smith/Leitman.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible today over the Ohio Valley with the broader severe weather risk including parts of the Southeast. Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Synopsis... A complex and strongly dynamic spring storm system will potentially result in a large area of severe-weather risk from the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley southward into portions of the Deep South, including AL/GA and the western Carolinas late tonight. A potent trough over the Upper Midwest this morning will evolve into a very strong mid-level low over the southwest Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. An intense mid-level speed max over northern Mexico/TX, in association with the southern portion of the larger-scale central U.S. trough, will rapidly move east-northeast during the period and intensify to 125-kt at 500 mb over the southern Appalachians by daybreak Wednesday. Intense 12-hr midlevel height falls are forecast across much of the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and the northern Gulf States, where values in excess of 200m are expected during the latter half of the period. The synoptic front this morning is draped across the OH Valley and will likely advance north due to the digging trough. ...OH Valley... Water-vapor imagery loop overnight showed a southern-stream short-wave trough associated with this morning's severe thunderstorm activity straddling the OH River in central KY and southern IN. This early-day thunderstorm complex will probably pose a risk for wind damage and perhaps a couple of tornadoes before it moves into the central Appalachians towards midday (see MCD #341 for short-term details). In its wake, a trailing outflow boundary/effective warm frontal zone will likely advance northward into IN/OH later today with lower to mid 60s progged to near I-70. Models continue to show an appreciable window of opportunity in which cloud breaks/heating and increasing low-level moisture contribute to moderate destabilization during the afternoon. Have adjusted the western envelope of severe probabilities farther west across IN to account for greater destabilization than earlier forecast, but otherwise have left the outlook unchanged across the OH Valley. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop by early to mid afternoon with discrete supercells evolving from the more intense updrafts. Tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging gusts are expected with the supercells that mature across the warm sector. Enlarged and elongated hodographs imply fast storm motions and the possibility for several cyclic tornadic supercells, some of which may yield strong and long-lived tornadoes. Farther east, strong to severe storms may continue across the central Appalachians and perhaps move east into the Mid-Atlantic states. Hail/wind appear to be the primary hazards with this activity. ...Southeast this evening/tonight... Farther south and initially in the TN/MS/northern AL vicinity, severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon as the leading edge of stronger large-scale ascent impinges on the region. A moisture-rich airmass and wind profile favoring supercells, will favor a risk for all severe hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. Although it remains unclear with regard to daytime to evening storm evolution across MS/AL/TN, the approach of the 500-mb speed max and intense shear through a deep layer atop a moist/unstable boundary layer, suggest a bimodal severe threat will probably evolve this evening into the overnight. Model guidance indicates messy but organized storm modes within a larger area of convection will probably develop. Forecast soundings show 300-500 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH from central/eastern AL into GA during the evening and overnight. The risk for tornadoes, including a few strong tornadoes, will be possible with this activity eventually reaching the Carolinas and the eastern FL Panhandle late. ..Smith/Leitman.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible today over the Ohio Valley with the broader severe weather risk including parts of the Southeast. Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...Synopsis... A complex and strongly dynamic spring storm system will potentially result in a large area of severe-weather risk from the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley southward into portions of the Deep South, including AL/GA and the western Carolinas late tonight. A potent trough over the Upper Midwest this morning will evolve into a very strong mid-level low over the southwest Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. An intense mid-level speed max over northern Mexico/TX, in association with the southern portion of the larger-scale central U.S. trough, will rapidly move east-northeast during the period and intensify to 125-kt at 500 mb over the southern Appalachians by daybreak Wednesday. Intense 12-hr midlevel height falls are forecast across much of the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and the northern Gulf States, where values in excess of 200m are expected during the latter half of the period. The synoptic front this morning is draped across the OH Valley and will likely advance north due to the digging trough. ...OH Valley... Water-vapor imagery loop overnight showed a southern-stream short-wave trough associated with this morning's severe thunderstorm activity straddling the OH River in central KY and southern IN. This early-day thunderstorm complex will probably pose a risk for wind damage and perhaps a couple of tornadoes before it moves into the central Appalachians towards midday (see MCD #341 for short-term details). In its wake, a trailing outflow boundary/effective warm frontal zone will likely advance northward into IN/OH later today with lower to mid 60s progged to near I-70. Models continue to show an appreciable window of opportunity in which cloud breaks/heating and increasing low-level moisture contribute to moderate destabilization during the afternoon. Have adjusted the western envelope of severe probabilities farther west across IN to account for greater destabilization than earlier forecast, but otherwise have left the outlook unchanged across the OH Valley. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop by early to mid afternoon with discrete supercells evolving from the more intense updrafts. Tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging gusts are expected with the supercells that mature across the warm sector. Enlarged and elongated hodographs imply fast storm motions and the possibility for several cyclic tornadic supercells, some of which may yield strong and long-lived tornadoes. Farther east, strong to severe storms may continue across the central Appalachians and perhaps move east into the Mid-Atlantic states. Hail/wind appear to be the primary hazards with this activity. ...Southeast this evening/tonight... Farther south and initially in the TN/MS/northern AL vicinity, severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon as the leading edge of stronger large-scale ascent impinges on the region. A moisture-rich airmass and wind profile favoring supercells, will favor a risk for all severe hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. Although it remains unclear with regard to daytime to evening storm evolution across MS/AL/TN, the approach of the 500-mb speed max and intense shear through a deep layer atop a moist/unstable boundary layer, suggest a bimodal severe threat will probably evolve this evening into the overnight. Model guidance indicates messy but organized storm modes within a larger area of convection will probably develop. Forecast soundings show 300-500 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH from central/eastern AL into GA during the evening and overnight. The risk for tornadoes, including a few strong tornadoes, will be possible with this activity eventually reaching the Carolinas and the eastern FL Panhandle late. ..Smith/Leitman.. 04/02/2024 Read more