Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward into the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In general, models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high, initially centered near the British Columbia/Washington border, will remain prominent through this period. It does appear that it may begin to weaken, but there is considerable spread evident within the various output concerning its evolution, and that of a remnant low over the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, models indicate that a significant short wave perturbation, of northern mid-latitude origins, will continue sharply digging, through the upper Mississippi Valley and mid into lower Missouri Valley. By 12Z Monday, the leading edge of an associated significant low-level cold intrusion may be in the process of advancing across the southern Appalachians, south of the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau, and through south central portions of the Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be preceded by one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which likely will become increasingly sheared within a confluent regime downstream of the digging short wave, after accelerating east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation may be supporting an upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms across parts of south central Texas toward mid/upper Texas coastal areas early Sunday. It appears that this will probably be rooted, at least initially, within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northern periphery of capping elevated mixed-layer air, where steep mid-level lapse rates may be contributing to an environment potentially conducive to severe hail. As this forcing spreads across and east-northeast of Texas coastal areas, toward the northeastern Gulf coast, convection may acquire increasing inflow of unstable boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Based on associated strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields evident in some model output (including the NAM and ECMWF), there appears some signal that activity could organize and become accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts. It appears that this could reach the Florida Panhandle vicinity by late Sunday evening, before more stable updraft inflow contributes to weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward into the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In general, models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high, initially centered near the British Columbia/Washington border, will remain prominent through this period. It does appear that it may begin to weaken, but there is considerable spread evident within the various output concerning its evolution, and that of a remnant low over the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, models indicate that a significant short wave perturbation, of northern mid-latitude origins, will continue sharply digging, through the upper Mississippi Valley and mid into lower Missouri Valley. By 12Z Monday, the leading edge of an associated significant low-level cold intrusion may be in the process of advancing across the southern Appalachians, south of the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau, and through south central portions of the Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be preceded by one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which likely will become increasingly sheared within a confluent regime downstream of the digging short wave, after accelerating east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation may be supporting an upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms across parts of south central Texas toward mid/upper Texas coastal areas early Sunday. It appears that this will probably be rooted, at least initially, within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northern periphery of capping elevated mixed-layer air, where steep mid-level lapse rates may be contributing to an environment potentially conducive to severe hail. As this forcing spreads across and east-northeast of Texas coastal areas, toward the northeastern Gulf coast, convection may acquire increasing inflow of unstable boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Based on associated strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields evident in some model output (including the NAM and ECMWF), there appears some signal that activity could organize and become accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts. It appears that this could reach the Florida Panhandle vicinity by late Sunday evening, before more stable updraft inflow contributes to weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward into the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In general, models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high, initially centered near the British Columbia/Washington border, will remain prominent through this period. It does appear that it may begin to weaken, but there is considerable spread evident within the various output concerning its evolution, and that of a remnant low over the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, models indicate that a significant short wave perturbation, of northern mid-latitude origins, will continue sharply digging, through the upper Mississippi Valley and mid into lower Missouri Valley. By 12Z Monday, the leading edge of an associated significant low-level cold intrusion may be in the process of advancing across the southern Appalachians, south of the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau, and through south central portions of the Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be preceded by one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which likely will become increasingly sheared within a confluent regime downstream of the digging short wave, after accelerating east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation may be supporting an upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms across parts of south central Texas toward mid/upper Texas coastal areas early Sunday. It appears that this will probably be rooted, at least initially, within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northern periphery of capping elevated mixed-layer air, where steep mid-level lapse rates may be contributing to an environment potentially conducive to severe hail. As this forcing spreads across and east-northeast of Texas coastal areas, toward the northeastern Gulf coast, convection may acquire increasing inflow of unstable boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Based on associated strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields evident in some model output (including the NAM and ECMWF), there appears some signal that activity could organize and become accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts. It appears that this could reach the Florida Panhandle vicinity by late Sunday evening, before more stable updraft inflow contributes to weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward into the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In general, models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high, initially centered near the British Columbia/Washington border, will remain prominent through this period. It does appear that it may begin to weaken, but there is considerable spread evident within the various output concerning its evolution, and that of a remnant low over the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, models indicate that a significant short wave perturbation, of northern mid-latitude origins, will continue sharply digging, through the upper Mississippi Valley and mid into lower Missouri Valley. By 12Z Monday, the leading edge of an associated significant low-level cold intrusion may be in the process of advancing across the southern Appalachians, south of the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau, and through south central portions of the Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be preceded by one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which likely will become increasingly sheared within a confluent regime downstream of the digging short wave, after accelerating east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation may be supporting an upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms across parts of south central Texas toward mid/upper Texas coastal areas early Sunday. It appears that this will probably be rooted, at least initially, within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northern periphery of capping elevated mixed-layer air, where steep mid-level lapse rates may be contributing to an environment potentially conducive to severe hail. As this forcing spreads across and east-northeast of Texas coastal areas, toward the northeastern Gulf coast, convection may acquire increasing inflow of unstable boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Based on associated strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields evident in some model output (including the NAM and ECMWF), there appears some signal that activity could organize and become accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts. It appears that this could reach the Florida Panhandle vicinity by late Sunday evening, before more stable updraft inflow contributes to weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward into the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In general, models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high, initially centered near the British Columbia/Washington border, will remain prominent through this period. It does appear that it may begin to weaken, but there is considerable spread evident within the various output concerning its evolution, and that of a remnant low over the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, models indicate that a significant short wave perturbation, of northern mid-latitude origins, will continue sharply digging, through the upper Mississippi Valley and mid into lower Missouri Valley. By 12Z Monday, the leading edge of an associated significant low-level cold intrusion may be in the process of advancing across the southern Appalachians, south of the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau, and through south central portions of the Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be preceded by one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which likely will become increasingly sheared within a confluent regime downstream of the digging short wave, after accelerating east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation may be supporting an upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms across parts of south central Texas toward mid/upper Texas coastal areas early Sunday. It appears that this will probably be rooted, at least initially, within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northern periphery of capping elevated mixed-layer air, where steep mid-level lapse rates may be contributing to an environment potentially conducive to severe hail. As this forcing spreads across and east-northeast of Texas coastal areas, toward the northeastern Gulf coast, convection may acquire increasing inflow of unstable boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Based on associated strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields evident in some model output (including the NAM and ECMWF), there appears some signal that activity could organize and become accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts. It appears that this could reach the Florida Panhandle vicinity by late Sunday evening, before more stable updraft inflow contributes to weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/15/2024 Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE HTS TO 30 SSW PKB TO 10 WNW EKN. WW 50 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 150700Z. ..DEAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC013-021-035-041-053-087-150700- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN GILMER JACKSON LEWIS MASON ROANE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE HTS TO 30 SSW PKB TO 10 WNW EKN. WW 50 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 150700Z. ..DEAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC013-021-035-041-053-087-150700- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN GILMER JACKSON LEWIS MASON ROANE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE HTS TO 30 SSW PKB TO 10 WNW EKN. WW 50 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 150700Z. ..DEAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC013-021-035-041-053-087-150700- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN GILMER JACKSON LEWIS MASON ROANE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE HTS TO 30 SSW PKB TO 10 WNW EKN. WW 50 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 150700Z. ..DEAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC013-021-035-041-053-087-150700- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN GILMER JACKSON LEWIS MASON ROANE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 50 SEVERE TSTM OH WV 150310Z - 150700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 50 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Ohio Northern West Virginia * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 1110 PM until 300 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered fast-moving storms over Ohio will track eastward across northern West Virginia during the next few hours, posing some risk of hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Athens OH to 55 miles east southeast of Parkersburg WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 44...WW 45...WW 46...WW 47...WW 48...WW 49... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Hart Read more

MD 0251 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 49... FOR FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA...KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN OHIO...FAR WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0251 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Areas affected...Far Southern Indiana...Kentucky...Southern Ohio...Far Western West Virginia Concerning...Tornado Watch 49... Valid 150359Z - 150600Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 49 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue for a couple more hours across the Ohio Valley. Wind damage, isolated large hail, and perhaps a brief spinup will be possible. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows an mesoscale convective system over the Ohio Valley, with several embedded supercells and multiple short line segments. Weak instability is currently located to the south of the MCS across much of Kentucky. In spite of this, a 65 to 80 knot mid-level jet is analyzed over northern Indiana and northern Ohio. The MCS is currently located near the southern edge of the mid-level jet, where 0-6 km shear is estimated to be near 50 knots, according to the RAP. In addition, a 40 knot low-level jet is analyzed over the Ohio Valley. The strong shear suggests that severe storms will continue to be possible over the next few hours. Wind damage, isolated large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible. However, the severe threat is expected to gradually decrease over time as the airmass gradually stabilizes. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 38738529 38158663 37438688 37078680 36878636 36898580 37458441 38008312 38818155 39328128 39508136 39658167 39648224 39238390 38738529 Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW HTS TO 5 S UNI TO 25 N EKN. ..DEAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC053-105-150640- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GALLIA MEIGS WVC013-021-035-041-053-085-087-105-107-150640- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN GILMER JACKSON LEWIS MASON RITCHIE ROANE WIRT WOOD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0049 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W LOZ TO 10 S LEX TO 10 S UNI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251 ..DEAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...JKL... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-049-173-205-150640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH CLARK MONTGOMERY ROWAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0049 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W LOZ TO 10 S LEX TO 10 S UNI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251 ..DEAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...JKL... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-049-173-205-150640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH CLARK MONTGOMERY ROWAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0049 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W LOZ TO 10 S LEX TO 10 S UNI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251 ..DEAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...JKL... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-049-173-205-150640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH CLARK MONTGOMERY ROWAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0049 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W LOZ TO 10 S LEX TO 10 S UNI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251 ..DEAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...JKL... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-049-173-205-150640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH CLARK MONTGOMERY ROWAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 49 TORNADO IN KY OH 150215Z - 150800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 49 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Indiana Central and Northern Kentucky Southern Ohio * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 1015 PM until 400 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of storms over southern Indiana will track eastward across the watch area tonight, with isolated severe cells ahead of the line. Damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible through the evening and early morning. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles southwest of Louisville KY to 120 miles northeast of Lexington KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 44...WW 45...WW 46...WW 47...WW 48... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms may impact portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... In general, models indicate further amplification of the large-scale flow across North America through this period, including the evolution of a high within prominent building mid/upper ridging across the Pacific Northwest through much of the western Canadian Provinces. Downstream of this ridging, large-scale troughing is forecast to continue to evolve across much of eastern Canada and the northern tier of the eastern U.S., with one significant short wave perturbation digging into the Upper Midwest/Red River Valley vicinity, in the wake of another accelerating across and east of the lower Great Lakes. To the south-southeast of the developing high, it appears that a mid/upper low will begin to weaken while remaining quasi-stationary across the Southwest. However, at least one notable embedded perturbation may gradually pivot around the southwestern through southern periphery of the circulation center, across the international border area by 12Z Sunday. At the same time, a short wave trough emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific may progress through cyclonic flow to the south, across the Mexican Plateau into the Rio Grande Valley by late Saturday night, preceded by more subtle impulses progressing into and through the crest of low amplitude subtropical ridging across the Gulf coast vicinity. In lower-levels, a weak surface front, reinforced by convective outflow, appears likely to stall and weaken across the northeastern and north central Gulf coast vicinity, southwestward into the lower Rio Grande Valley, while a more significant cold front surges from the north Great Plains/Upper Midwest and Great Lakes into and through the Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Texas... Model spread, concerning some of the short wave developments through this period, continues to contribute to at least some uncertainty concerning convective potential for Saturday through Saturday night. Inhibition associated with elevated mixed-layer air may also continue to be a factor, particularly where a lingering moist unstable boundary becomes unstable with daytime heating, across parts of the lower Rio Grande Valley and coastal plain. However, guidance is suggestive that destabilization and lift along the leading edge of the warmer elevated mixed-layer air may contribute to vigorous thunderstorm development by midday Saturday, as it retreats back northeastward across south central Texas through the upper Texas coastal plain. Although this may be mostly rooted above stable near-surface lapse rates, steep lapse rates farther aloft may support sizable CAPE in the mid to upper levels, and promote a risk for large hail in the presence of strong convective layer shear. In the wake of this early day convection, at least some model output is suggestive that a corridor of stronger daytime heating may overcome inhibition and allow for a period of boundary-layer based thunderstorm development late Saturday afternoon and evening, roughly from around College Station into areas south of San Antonio. This could include one or two supercells accompanied by some risk for a tornado, in addition to large hail, before weakening, though low-level hodographs are forecast to remain relatively modest to weak. Thereafter, forcing for ascent associated with the subtropical short wave perturbation crossing the Mexican Plateau into Rio Grande Valley may contribute to renewed vigorous convective development late Saturday night across south central Texas. This activity will probably be elevated, rooted within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, but the environment may remain conducive to a risk for severe hail. ..Kerr.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms may impact portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... In general, models indicate further amplification of the large-scale flow across North America through this period, including the evolution of a high within prominent building mid/upper ridging across the Pacific Northwest through much of the western Canadian Provinces. Downstream of this ridging, large-scale troughing is forecast to continue to evolve across much of eastern Canada and the northern tier of the eastern U.S., with one significant short wave perturbation digging into the Upper Midwest/Red River Valley vicinity, in the wake of another accelerating across and east of the lower Great Lakes. To the south-southeast of the developing high, it appears that a mid/upper low will begin to weaken while remaining quasi-stationary across the Southwest. However, at least one notable embedded perturbation may gradually pivot around the southwestern through southern periphery of the circulation center, across the international border area by 12Z Sunday. At the same time, a short wave trough emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific may progress through cyclonic flow to the south, across the Mexican Plateau into the Rio Grande Valley by late Saturday night, preceded by more subtle impulses progressing into and through the crest of low amplitude subtropical ridging across the Gulf coast vicinity. In lower-levels, a weak surface front, reinforced by convective outflow, appears likely to stall and weaken across the northeastern and north central Gulf coast vicinity, southwestward into the lower Rio Grande Valley, while a more significant cold front surges from the north Great Plains/Upper Midwest and Great Lakes into and through the Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Texas... Model spread, concerning some of the short wave developments through this period, continues to contribute to at least some uncertainty concerning convective potential for Saturday through Saturday night. Inhibition associated with elevated mixed-layer air may also continue to be a factor, particularly where a lingering moist unstable boundary becomes unstable with daytime heating, across parts of the lower Rio Grande Valley and coastal plain. However, guidance is suggestive that destabilization and lift along the leading edge of the warmer elevated mixed-layer air may contribute to vigorous thunderstorm development by midday Saturday, as it retreats back northeastward across south central Texas through the upper Texas coastal plain. Although this may be mostly rooted above stable near-surface lapse rates, steep lapse rates farther aloft may support sizable CAPE in the mid to upper levels, and promote a risk for large hail in the presence of strong convective layer shear. In the wake of this early day convection, at least some model output is suggestive that a corridor of stronger daytime heating may overcome inhibition and allow for a period of boundary-layer based thunderstorm development late Saturday afternoon and evening, roughly from around College Station into areas south of San Antonio. This could include one or two supercells accompanied by some risk for a tornado, in addition to large hail, before weakening, though low-level hodographs are forecast to remain relatively modest to weak. Thereafter, forcing for ascent associated with the subtropical short wave perturbation crossing the Mexican Plateau into Rio Grande Valley may contribute to renewed vigorous convective development late Saturday night across south central Texas. This activity will probably be elevated, rooted within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, but the environment may remain conducive to a risk for severe hail. ..Kerr.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms may impact portions of south central and southeastern Texas Saturday through Saturday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... In general, models indicate further amplification of the large-scale flow across North America through this period, including the evolution of a high within prominent building mid/upper ridging across the Pacific Northwest through much of the western Canadian Provinces. Downstream of this ridging, large-scale troughing is forecast to continue to evolve across much of eastern Canada and the northern tier of the eastern U.S., with one significant short wave perturbation digging into the Upper Midwest/Red River Valley vicinity, in the wake of another accelerating across and east of the lower Great Lakes. To the south-southeast of the developing high, it appears that a mid/upper low will begin to weaken while remaining quasi-stationary across the Southwest. However, at least one notable embedded perturbation may gradually pivot around the southwestern through southern periphery of the circulation center, across the international border area by 12Z Sunday. At the same time, a short wave trough emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific may progress through cyclonic flow to the south, across the Mexican Plateau into the Rio Grande Valley by late Saturday night, preceded by more subtle impulses progressing into and through the crest of low amplitude subtropical ridging across the Gulf coast vicinity. In lower-levels, a weak surface front, reinforced by convective outflow, appears likely to stall and weaken across the northeastern and north central Gulf coast vicinity, southwestward into the lower Rio Grande Valley, while a more significant cold front surges from the north Great Plains/Upper Midwest and Great Lakes into and through the Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys. ...Southern Texas... Model spread, concerning some of the short wave developments through this period, continues to contribute to at least some uncertainty concerning convective potential for Saturday through Saturday night. Inhibition associated with elevated mixed-layer air may also continue to be a factor, particularly where a lingering moist unstable boundary becomes unstable with daytime heating, across parts of the lower Rio Grande Valley and coastal plain. However, guidance is suggestive that destabilization and lift along the leading edge of the warmer elevated mixed-layer air may contribute to vigorous thunderstorm development by midday Saturday, as it retreats back northeastward across south central Texas through the upper Texas coastal plain. Although this may be mostly rooted above stable near-surface lapse rates, steep lapse rates farther aloft may support sizable CAPE in the mid to upper levels, and promote a risk for large hail in the presence of strong convective layer shear. In the wake of this early day convection, at least some model output is suggestive that a corridor of stronger daytime heating may overcome inhibition and allow for a period of boundary-layer based thunderstorm development late Saturday afternoon and evening, roughly from around College Station into areas south of San Antonio. This could include one or two supercells accompanied by some risk for a tornado, in addition to large hail, before weakening, though low-level hodographs are forecast to remain relatively modest to weak. Thereafter, forcing for ascent associated with the subtropical short wave perturbation crossing the Mexican Plateau into Rio Grande Valley may contribute to renewed vigorous convective development late Saturday night across south central Texas. This activity will probably be elevated, rooted within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, but the environment may remain conducive to a risk for severe hail. ..Kerr.. 03/15/2024 Read more