Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... No changes are need to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Morning satellite and surface observations show mostly sunny skies, relative humidity in the teens to single digits, and winds generally around 15-20 mph (gusting 30-40 mph across the high terrain) as of 16z. Several more hours of Critical to Extremely Critical conditions are likely, especially along and in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains where enhanced downslope flow will result in dangerous fire weather conditions. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... No changes are need to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Morning satellite and surface observations show mostly sunny skies, relative humidity in the teens to single digits, and winds generally around 15-20 mph (gusting 30-40 mph across the high terrain) as of 16z. Several more hours of Critical to Extremely Critical conditions are likely, especially along and in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains where enhanced downslope flow will result in dangerous fire weather conditions. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... No changes are need to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Morning satellite and surface observations show mostly sunny skies, relative humidity in the teens to single digits, and winds generally around 15-20 mph (gusting 30-40 mph across the high terrain) as of 16z. Several more hours of Critical to Extremely Critical conditions are likely, especially along and in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains where enhanced downslope flow will result in dangerous fire weather conditions. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... No changes are need to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Morning satellite and surface observations show mostly sunny skies, relative humidity in the teens to single digits, and winds generally around 15-20 mph (gusting 30-40 mph across the high terrain) as of 16z. Several more hours of Critical to Extremely Critical conditions are likely, especially along and in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains where enhanced downslope flow will result in dangerous fire weather conditions. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... No changes are need to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Morning satellite and surface observations show mostly sunny skies, relative humidity in the teens to single digits, and winds generally around 15-20 mph (gusting 30-40 mph across the high terrain) as of 16z. Several more hours of Critical to Extremely Critical conditions are likely, especially along and in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains where enhanced downslope flow will result in dangerous fire weather conditions. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... No changes are need to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Morning satellite and surface observations show mostly sunny skies, relative humidity in the teens to single digits, and winds generally around 15-20 mph (gusting 30-40 mph across the high terrain) as of 16z. Several more hours of Critical to Extremely Critical conditions are likely, especially along and in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains where enhanced downslope flow will result in dangerous fire weather conditions. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... No changes are need to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Morning satellite and surface observations show mostly sunny skies, relative humidity in the teens to single digits, and winds generally around 15-20 mph (gusting 30-40 mph across the high terrain) as of 16z. Several more hours of Critical to Extremely Critical conditions are likely, especially along and in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains where enhanced downslope flow will result in dangerous fire weather conditions. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... No changes are need to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Morning satellite and surface observations show mostly sunny skies, relative humidity in the teens to single digits, and winds generally around 15-20 mph (gusting 30-40 mph across the high terrain) as of 16z. Several more hours of Critical to Extremely Critical conditions are likely, especially along and in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains where enhanced downslope flow will result in dangerous fire weather conditions. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... No changes are need to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Morning satellite and surface observations show mostly sunny skies, relative humidity in the teens to single digits, and winds generally around 15-20 mph (gusting 30-40 mph across the high terrain) as of 16z. Several more hours of Critical to Extremely Critical conditions are likely, especially along and in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains where enhanced downslope flow will result in dangerous fire weather conditions. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0949 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0949 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Alabama into southwestern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 251603Z - 251730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A locally higher severe threat may accompany a more robust cluster of thunderstorms moving southeast along the AL/GA border area. A categorical Slight Risk upgrade is anticipated for an increased severe wind/hail risk, with convective trends also being monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. DISCUSSION...An organized cluster of strong multicells and perhaps transient supercells has recently become established in east-central AL, and is poised to continue tracking southeastward early this afternoon. These storms are preceded by an unstable airmass (i.e. MLCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg), where a modest 500 mb speed max is also passing by. As such, a locally higher overlap of favorable buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear will promote at least a locally severe wind and hail threat. In response, a categorical upgrade to Slight Risk will be made in the 1630Z Day 1 Convective Outlook. Convective trends are also being monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance pending greater storm coverage. ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 32698620 32748497 32178386 31488332 30898332 30428367 30318433 30568504 31028576 32218635 32698620 Read more

WW 0306 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0306 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0306 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0306 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/25/2024 Read more