Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across parts of the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon. Residual west/northwesterly mid-level flow in the wake of a departing synoptic low will persist across the southern Rockies through Sunday evening. This will promote weak lee troughing across southern TX while surface high pressure builds across the Intermountain West. Consequently, northwesterly pressure gradient winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph across much of eastern and southern NM into adjacent portions of western TX. Very dry conditions will persist through the weekend with widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens Sunday afternoon. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear probable with localized areas of critical conditions possible. Latest ensemble and deterministic solutions hint that critical conditions may be confined to the lee of terrain features where winds may reach 20-25 mph. However, weakening mid-level winds through the day should limit the potential for more widespread critical conditions. Regardless, most fine fuels are already receptive based on recent fuel analyses, and very dry and windy conditions on Saturday will promote additional fuel drying for Sunday that will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across parts of the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon. Residual west/northwesterly mid-level flow in the wake of a departing synoptic low will persist across the southern Rockies through Sunday evening. This will promote weak lee troughing across southern TX while surface high pressure builds across the Intermountain West. Consequently, northwesterly pressure gradient winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph across much of eastern and southern NM into adjacent portions of western TX. Very dry conditions will persist through the weekend with widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens Sunday afternoon. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear probable with localized areas of critical conditions possible. Latest ensemble and deterministic solutions hint that critical conditions may be confined to the lee of terrain features where winds may reach 20-25 mph. However, weakening mid-level winds through the day should limit the potential for more widespread critical conditions. Regardless, most fine fuels are already receptive based on recent fuel analyses, and very dry and windy conditions on Saturday will promote additional fuel drying for Sunday that will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across parts of the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon. Residual west/northwesterly mid-level flow in the wake of a departing synoptic low will persist across the southern Rockies through Sunday evening. This will promote weak lee troughing across southern TX while surface high pressure builds across the Intermountain West. Consequently, northwesterly pressure gradient winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph across much of eastern and southern NM into adjacent portions of western TX. Very dry conditions will persist through the weekend with widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens Sunday afternoon. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear probable with localized areas of critical conditions possible. Latest ensemble and deterministic solutions hint that critical conditions may be confined to the lee of terrain features where winds may reach 20-25 mph. However, weakening mid-level winds through the day should limit the potential for more widespread critical conditions. Regardless, most fine fuels are already receptive based on recent fuel analyses, and very dry and windy conditions on Saturday will promote additional fuel drying for Sunday that will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across parts of the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon. Residual west/northwesterly mid-level flow in the wake of a departing synoptic low will persist across the southern Rockies through Sunday evening. This will promote weak lee troughing across southern TX while surface high pressure builds across the Intermountain West. Consequently, northwesterly pressure gradient winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph across much of eastern and southern NM into adjacent portions of western TX. Very dry conditions will persist through the weekend with widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens Sunday afternoon. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear probable with localized areas of critical conditions possible. Latest ensemble and deterministic solutions hint that critical conditions may be confined to the lee of terrain features where winds may reach 20-25 mph. However, weakening mid-level winds through the day should limit the potential for more widespread critical conditions. Regardless, most fine fuels are already receptive based on recent fuel analyses, and very dry and windy conditions on Saturday will promote additional fuel drying for Sunday that will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across parts of the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon. Residual west/northwesterly mid-level flow in the wake of a departing synoptic low will persist across the southern Rockies through Sunday evening. This will promote weak lee troughing across southern TX while surface high pressure builds across the Intermountain West. Consequently, northwesterly pressure gradient winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph across much of eastern and southern NM into adjacent portions of western TX. Very dry conditions will persist through the weekend with widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens Sunday afternoon. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear probable with localized areas of critical conditions possible. Latest ensemble and deterministic solutions hint that critical conditions may be confined to the lee of terrain features where winds may reach 20-25 mph. However, weakening mid-level winds through the day should limit the potential for more widespread critical conditions. Regardless, most fine fuels are already receptive based on recent fuel analyses, and very dry and windy conditions on Saturday will promote additional fuel drying for Sunday that will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable across parts of the southern High Plains Sunday afternoon. Residual west/northwesterly mid-level flow in the wake of a departing synoptic low will persist across the southern Rockies through Sunday evening. This will promote weak lee troughing across southern TX while surface high pressure builds across the Intermountain West. Consequently, northwesterly pressure gradient winds are forecast to increase to around 15 mph across much of eastern and southern NM into adjacent portions of western TX. Very dry conditions will persist through the weekend with widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens Sunday afternoon. Widespread elevated fire weather conditions appear probable with localized areas of critical conditions possible. Latest ensemble and deterministic solutions hint that critical conditions may be confined to the lee of terrain features where winds may reach 20-25 mph. However, weakening mid-level winds through the day should limit the potential for more widespread critical conditions. Regardless, most fine fuels are already receptive based on recent fuel analyses, and very dry and windy conditions on Saturday will promote additional fuel drying for Sunday that will support the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ..Moore.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. It is possible this could include the evolution of at least one large, long-lived organized cluster of storms posing a risk for damaging wind gusts, from parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that initially low-amplitude mid-level troughing, comprised of at least a couple of smaller-scale perturbations emerging from the Great Basin and Southwest, may undergo substantive amplification while slowly progressing northeast and east of the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains during this period. The lead embedded perturbation may be accompanied by notable further deepening of a relatively compact developing cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through the upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. To the southwest of this cyclone, a cold front is forecast to surge southward through much of Missouri, northwestern Arkansas and the southern Great Plains Red River Valley. It appears that the front will be preceded by a sharpening dryline near the Kansas/Missouri border area southwestward through central Texas by late afternoon, while a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air continues advecting east of the southeastern Great Plains through much of the mid/lower Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley through southern Appalachians. Beneath this regime, moderately strong southwesterly low-level flow will contribute to low-level moisture return across the Mississippi Valley through the lower Great Lakes and Appalachians, but this may be complicated by the influence of remnant convection and convective outflow from areas upstream late Saturday through Saturday night. ...Southeastern Great Plains through Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Latest model output, including convection allowing guidance, suggests that several remnant convective clusters may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday across parts of the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valley vicinity. It is possible that destabilizing moist low-level inflow to the south and southwest of the southern-most activity may be sufficient to maintain or support re-intensification of convection east-southeastward through parts of the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys during the day. If this occurs, beneath a seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper jet, vertical shear may contribute to an organizing system capable of producing sustained damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, a perhaps more prominent signal persists in model output that a corridor of strengthening differential surface heating, near the western flank of modifying convective outflow and beneath the leading edge of the plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, may become a focus for renewed convective develop by Sunday afternoon. Initially in a corridor roughly across northeast/east central Missouri into west central Illinois, lift associated with warm advection and inflow of boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg may contribute to upscale growing convective development, with potential to organize into a southeastward propagating convective system. Given seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content beneath dry mid-levels with very steep lapse rates, a strong cold pool may eventually evolve and pose a risk for sustained damaging wind gusts across parts of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. It is possible this could include the evolution of at least one large, long-lived organized cluster of storms posing a risk for damaging wind gusts, from parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that initially low-amplitude mid-level troughing, comprised of at least a couple of smaller-scale perturbations emerging from the Great Basin and Southwest, may undergo substantive amplification while slowly progressing northeast and east of the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains during this period. The lead embedded perturbation may be accompanied by notable further deepening of a relatively compact developing cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through the upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. To the southwest of this cyclone, a cold front is forecast to surge southward through much of Missouri, northwestern Arkansas and the southern Great Plains Red River Valley. It appears that the front will be preceded by a sharpening dryline near the Kansas/Missouri border area southwestward through central Texas by late afternoon, while a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air continues advecting east of the southeastern Great Plains through much of the mid/lower Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley through southern Appalachians. Beneath this regime, moderately strong southwesterly low-level flow will contribute to low-level moisture return across the Mississippi Valley through the lower Great Lakes and Appalachians, but this may be complicated by the influence of remnant convection and convective outflow from areas upstream late Saturday through Saturday night. ...Southeastern Great Plains through Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Latest model output, including convection allowing guidance, suggests that several remnant convective clusters may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday across parts of the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valley vicinity. It is possible that destabilizing moist low-level inflow to the south and southwest of the southern-most activity may be sufficient to maintain or support re-intensification of convection east-southeastward through parts of the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys during the day. If this occurs, beneath a seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper jet, vertical shear may contribute to an organizing system capable of producing sustained damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, a perhaps more prominent signal persists in model output that a corridor of strengthening differential surface heating, near the western flank of modifying convective outflow and beneath the leading edge of the plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, may become a focus for renewed convective develop by Sunday afternoon. Initially in a corridor roughly across northeast/east central Missouri into west central Illinois, lift associated with warm advection and inflow of boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg may contribute to upscale growing convective development, with potential to organize into a southeastward propagating convective system. Given seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content beneath dry mid-levels with very steep lapse rates, a strong cold pool may eventually evolve and pose a risk for sustained damaging wind gusts across parts of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. It is possible this could include the evolution of at least one large, long-lived organized cluster of storms posing a risk for damaging wind gusts, from parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that initially low-amplitude mid-level troughing, comprised of at least a couple of smaller-scale perturbations emerging from the Great Basin and Southwest, may undergo substantive amplification while slowly progressing northeast and east of the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains during this period. The lead embedded perturbation may be accompanied by notable further deepening of a relatively compact developing cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through the upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. To the southwest of this cyclone, a cold front is forecast to surge southward through much of Missouri, northwestern Arkansas and the southern Great Plains Red River Valley. It appears that the front will be preceded by a sharpening dryline near the Kansas/Missouri border area southwestward through central Texas by late afternoon, while a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air continues advecting east of the southeastern Great Plains through much of the mid/lower Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley through southern Appalachians. Beneath this regime, moderately strong southwesterly low-level flow will contribute to low-level moisture return across the Mississippi Valley through the lower Great Lakes and Appalachians, but this may be complicated by the influence of remnant convection and convective outflow from areas upstream late Saturday through Saturday night. ...Southeastern Great Plains through Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Latest model output, including convection allowing guidance, suggests that several remnant convective clusters may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday across parts of the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valley vicinity. It is possible that destabilizing moist low-level inflow to the south and southwest of the southern-most activity may be sufficient to maintain or support re-intensification of convection east-southeastward through parts of the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys during the day. If this occurs, beneath a seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper jet, vertical shear may contribute to an organizing system capable of producing sustained damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, a perhaps more prominent signal persists in model output that a corridor of strengthening differential surface heating, near the western flank of modifying convective outflow and beneath the leading edge of the plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, may become a focus for renewed convective develop by Sunday afternoon. Initially in a corridor roughly across northeast/east central Missouri into west central Illinois, lift associated with warm advection and inflow of boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg may contribute to upscale growing convective development, with potential to organize into a southeastward propagating convective system. Given seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content beneath dry mid-levels with very steep lapse rates, a strong cold pool may eventually evolve and pose a risk for sustained damaging wind gusts across parts of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. It is possible this could include the evolution of at least one large, long-lived organized cluster of storms posing a risk for damaging wind gusts, from parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that initially low-amplitude mid-level troughing, comprised of at least a couple of smaller-scale perturbations emerging from the Great Basin and Southwest, may undergo substantive amplification while slowly progressing northeast and east of the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains during this period. The lead embedded perturbation may be accompanied by notable further deepening of a relatively compact developing cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through the upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. To the southwest of this cyclone, a cold front is forecast to surge southward through much of Missouri, northwestern Arkansas and the southern Great Plains Red River Valley. It appears that the front will be preceded by a sharpening dryline near the Kansas/Missouri border area southwestward through central Texas by late afternoon, while a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air continues advecting east of the southeastern Great Plains through much of the mid/lower Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley through southern Appalachians. Beneath this regime, moderately strong southwesterly low-level flow will contribute to low-level moisture return across the Mississippi Valley through the lower Great Lakes and Appalachians, but this may be complicated by the influence of remnant convection and convective outflow from areas upstream late Saturday through Saturday night. ...Southeastern Great Plains through Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Latest model output, including convection allowing guidance, suggests that several remnant convective clusters may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday across parts of the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valley vicinity. It is possible that destabilizing moist low-level inflow to the south and southwest of the southern-most activity may be sufficient to maintain or support re-intensification of convection east-southeastward through parts of the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys during the day. If this occurs, beneath a seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper jet, vertical shear may contribute to an organizing system capable of producing sustained damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, a perhaps more prominent signal persists in model output that a corridor of strengthening differential surface heating, near the western flank of modifying convective outflow and beneath the leading edge of the plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, may become a focus for renewed convective develop by Sunday afternoon. Initially in a corridor roughly across northeast/east central Missouri into west central Illinois, lift associated with warm advection and inflow of boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg may contribute to upscale growing convective development, with potential to organize into a southeastward propagating convective system. Given seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content beneath dry mid-levels with very steep lapse rates, a strong cold pool may eventually evolve and pose a risk for sustained damaging wind gusts across parts of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. It is possible this could include the evolution of at least one large, long-lived organized cluster of storms posing a risk for damaging wind gusts, from parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that initially low-amplitude mid-level troughing, comprised of at least a couple of smaller-scale perturbations emerging from the Great Basin and Southwest, may undergo substantive amplification while slowly progressing northeast and east of the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains during this period. The lead embedded perturbation may be accompanied by notable further deepening of a relatively compact developing cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through the upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. To the southwest of this cyclone, a cold front is forecast to surge southward through much of Missouri, northwestern Arkansas and the southern Great Plains Red River Valley. It appears that the front will be preceded by a sharpening dryline near the Kansas/Missouri border area southwestward through central Texas by late afternoon, while a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air continues advecting east of the southeastern Great Plains through much of the mid/lower Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley through southern Appalachians. Beneath this regime, moderately strong southwesterly low-level flow will contribute to low-level moisture return across the Mississippi Valley through the lower Great Lakes and Appalachians, but this may be complicated by the influence of remnant convection and convective outflow from areas upstream late Saturday through Saturday night. ...Southeastern Great Plains through Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Latest model output, including convection allowing guidance, suggests that several remnant convective clusters may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday across parts of the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valley vicinity. It is possible that destabilizing moist low-level inflow to the south and southwest of the southern-most activity may be sufficient to maintain or support re-intensification of convection east-southeastward through parts of the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys during the day. If this occurs, beneath a seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper jet, vertical shear may contribute to an organizing system capable of producing sustained damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, a perhaps more prominent signal persists in model output that a corridor of strengthening differential surface heating, near the western flank of modifying convective outflow and beneath the leading edge of the plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, may become a focus for renewed convective develop by Sunday afternoon. Initially in a corridor roughly across northeast/east central Missouri into west central Illinois, lift associated with warm advection and inflow of boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg may contribute to upscale growing convective development, with potential to organize into a southeastward propagating convective system. Given seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content beneath dry mid-levels with very steep lapse rates, a strong cold pool may eventually evolve and pose a risk for sustained damaging wind gusts across parts of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MISSOURI...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. It is possible this could include the evolution of at least one large, long-lived organized cluster of storms posing a risk for damaging wind gusts, from parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that initially low-amplitude mid-level troughing, comprised of at least a couple of smaller-scale perturbations emerging from the Great Basin and Southwest, may undergo substantive amplification while slowly progressing northeast and east of the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains during this period. The lead embedded perturbation may be accompanied by notable further deepening of a relatively compact developing cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through the upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. To the southwest of this cyclone, a cold front is forecast to surge southward through much of Missouri, northwestern Arkansas and the southern Great Plains Red River Valley. It appears that the front will be preceded by a sharpening dryline near the Kansas/Missouri border area southwestward through central Texas by late afternoon, while a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air continues advecting east of the southeastern Great Plains through much of the mid/lower Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley through southern Appalachians. Beneath this regime, moderately strong southwesterly low-level flow will contribute to low-level moisture return across the Mississippi Valley through the lower Great Lakes and Appalachians, but this may be complicated by the influence of remnant convection and convective outflow from areas upstream late Saturday through Saturday night. ...Southeastern Great Plains through Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Latest model output, including convection allowing guidance, suggests that several remnant convective clusters may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday across parts of the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valley vicinity. It is possible that destabilizing moist low-level inflow to the south and southwest of the southern-most activity may be sufficient to maintain or support re-intensification of convection east-southeastward through parts of the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys during the day. If this occurs, beneath a seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper jet, vertical shear may contribute to an organizing system capable of producing sustained damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, a perhaps more prominent signal persists in model output that a corridor of strengthening differential surface heating, near the western flank of modifying convective outflow and beneath the leading edge of the plume of warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, may become a focus for renewed convective develop by Sunday afternoon. Initially in a corridor roughly across northeast/east central Missouri into west central Illinois, lift associated with warm advection and inflow of boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg may contribute to upscale growing convective development, with potential to organize into a southeastward propagating convective system. Given seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content beneath dry mid-levels with very steep lapse rates, a strong cold pool may eventually evolve and pose a risk for sustained damaging wind gusts across parts of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF KANSAS/OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast from late afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. ...Central and southern Great Plains... Much uncertainty plagues this outlook cycle, with the level 4-Moderate risk left as-is. This evening's guidance has trended slower and more confined with the boundary-layer moisture return, with most CAMs also suggesting earlier afternoon initiation occurring along the periphery of the richer moisture in west TX. Level 5-High risk potential remains evident with the 00Z HRRR indicating a possible tornado outbreak scenario with long-lived strong to violent tornadoes. Consensus of evening guidance suggests low-level moisture return will be within a confined swath emanating north from the south-central TX portion of the Rio Grande Valley into west TX. This will occur downstream of a modestly amplified mid-level trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, ejecting across the West into the central and southern High Plains. Surface temperatures west of the dryline will become hot, and most CAMs indicate early to mid-afternoon thunderstorm development in the TX Big Country/western north TX vicinity. It is probable that this will become the southern extent of the overall severe threat with slow-moving supercells persisting into the evening. Across OK/KS, richer and deeper boundary-layer moisture ahead of the dryline should be confined to western OK through late afternoon. A more well-mixed boundary layer is expected farther north in western/central KS, while the rich moisture should be shallow in central OK before deepening later. Most guidance suggests high-based thunderstorms will develop in the late afternoon across southwest NE and northwest KS, where mid-level cooling will be greatest. Very large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary threats during the afternoon with relatively elongated/straight hodographs supporting potential for left and right-splitting supercells. A strengthening low-level jet will aid in the tornado threat substantially increasing by early evening. The most volatile environment for long-lived, intense tornadic supercells should exist over the western half of OK. Primary uncertainty precluding an upgrade is the degree of impact earlier afternoon storms to the south may have on this setup with left-splits/outflows. The northern periphery of the richer/deeper moisture surge and robust low-level jet is eventually expected to reach at least into southern KS during the evening. Supercells in this region will strengthen as this occurs, and become capable of producing long-lived, intense tornadoes after dusk. But with time tonight, increasing large-scale ascent should support a supercell to bow echo to MCS evolution towards the Ozark Plateau vicinity. This should yield a swath of damaging winds, with embedded significant severe gusts and tornadoes possible as it tracks eastward along the MLCAPE gradient overnight. ...Eastern States... Three areas of level 1-MRGL risk are forecast today with sporadic severe hail and locally damaging winds possible. Remnant morning convection and attendant MCVs may aid in isolated severe across parts of the Deep South early, before spreading/developing east towards parts of the coastal Atlantic Southeast during the afternoon. Separately, a marginal supercell wind profile will also exist along the southeast FL sea breeze. Across the Lower Great Lakes to central/northern Appalachians, initial mid-level ridging will evolve to a flatter, zonal flow regime. The trailing surface front attendant to a nearly stationary, occluded cyclone along the southeast MB/northwest ON border area should aid in isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, some of which should become strong. ..Grams/Moore.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF KANSAS/OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast from late afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. ...Central and southern Great Plains... Much uncertainty plagues this outlook cycle, with the level 4-Moderate risk left as-is. This evening's guidance has trended slower and more confined with the boundary-layer moisture return, with most CAMs also suggesting earlier afternoon initiation occurring along the periphery of the richer moisture in west TX. Level 5-High risk potential remains evident with the 00Z HRRR indicating a possible tornado outbreak scenario with long-lived strong to violent tornadoes. Consensus of evening guidance suggests low-level moisture return will be within a confined swath emanating north from the south-central TX portion of the Rio Grande Valley into west TX. This will occur downstream of a modestly amplified mid-level trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, ejecting across the West into the central and southern High Plains. Surface temperatures west of the dryline will become hot, and most CAMs indicate early to mid-afternoon thunderstorm development in the TX Big Country/western north TX vicinity. It is probable that this will become the southern extent of the overall severe threat with slow-moving supercells persisting into the evening. Across OK/KS, richer and deeper boundary-layer moisture ahead of the dryline should be confined to western OK through late afternoon. A more well-mixed boundary layer is expected farther north in western/central KS, while the rich moisture should be shallow in central OK before deepening later. Most guidance suggests high-based thunderstorms will develop in the late afternoon across southwest NE and northwest KS, where mid-level cooling will be greatest. Very large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary threats during the afternoon with relatively elongated/straight hodographs supporting potential for left and right-splitting supercells. A strengthening low-level jet will aid in the tornado threat substantially increasing by early evening. The most volatile environment for long-lived, intense tornadic supercells should exist over the western half of OK. Primary uncertainty precluding an upgrade is the degree of impact earlier afternoon storms to the south may have on this setup with left-splits/outflows. The northern periphery of the richer/deeper moisture surge and robust low-level jet is eventually expected to reach at least into southern KS during the evening. Supercells in this region will strengthen as this occurs, and become capable of producing long-lived, intense tornadoes after dusk. But with time tonight, increasing large-scale ascent should support a supercell to bow echo to MCS evolution towards the Ozark Plateau vicinity. This should yield a swath of damaging winds, with embedded significant severe gusts and tornadoes possible as it tracks eastward along the MLCAPE gradient overnight. ...Eastern States... Three areas of level 1-MRGL risk are forecast today with sporadic severe hail and locally damaging winds possible. Remnant morning convection and attendant MCVs may aid in isolated severe across parts of the Deep South early, before spreading/developing east towards parts of the coastal Atlantic Southeast during the afternoon. Separately, a marginal supercell wind profile will also exist along the southeast FL sea breeze. Across the Lower Great Lakes to central/northern Appalachians, initial mid-level ridging will evolve to a flatter, zonal flow regime. The trailing surface front attendant to a nearly stationary, occluded cyclone along the southeast MB/northwest ON border area should aid in isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, some of which should become strong. ..Grams/Moore.. 05/25/2024 Read more