Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes appears likely across parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS and into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night. The associated surface low will begin the period in central Kansas and somewhere near Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan by 12Z Monday. Along and south of this surface low, a moist/unstable warm sector will support multiple rounds of strong to severe storms. ...Missouri through central/southern Illinois/Indiana, Kentucky, and northern Tennessee... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, responsible for the D1 severe weather episode in the central Plains is progged to be near the IA/IL/MO border at 12Z with a broad area of likely severe thunderstorms extending to the south. Storms on the northern end of this line will likely outrun the best instability and weaken during the morning, especially by the time they reach Lake Michigan. Farther south, low-level moisture advection will lead to rapid destabilization ahead of the line. This will support a sustained to perhaps increased severe weather threat as this line moves across southern Illinois and Indiana and into northern Kentucky. The primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts. Despite the stabilizing effect of this morning convection, recovery is anticipated across southern/eastern Missouri during the afternoon and eventually into southern Illinois and western Kentucky as a stout EML advects across the region from the west. The exact evolution of storm development in the wake of morning convection remains unclear. Persistent supercell development is possible on the remnant outflow boundary through the day which would have a continued wind/hail threat and could grow upscale into a cluster with an increased wind threat. However, even if storms do not continue to form along this boundary, additional storms are likely during the late afternoon/evening as a secondary shortwave trough approaches and erodes inhibition. 45 to 50 knots of effective shear will support supercell storm mode with a primary threat of large hail. In addition, if sufficient boundary layer recovery can occur north of the outflow boundary, the environment would be quite favorable for tornadoes with large low-level hodographs. A 10% hatched tornado threat has been added for the region where this threat may be greatest. Eventually, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the advancing cold front during the late evening which should move southeast and persist for the entire overnight period. This will pose a primary threat for damaging winds although there will be some tornado threat given the strengthening low-level jet during the evening hours. The orientation of the line will be the primary limiting factor to a greater tornado threat with this overnight squall line. ...Eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into Arkansas... A strongly unstable and only slightly capped environment is expected during the afternoon hours. Isolated supercells capable of large hail are possible during the afternoon as ascent from the mid-level trough overspread this region, but low-level focus will be nebulous. The better storm threat will arrive with the cold front during the evening with a damaging wind threat. However, some large hail is also possible with more scattered development/potentially transient supercell development on the southern extent of the line. ...Northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin... A narrow area near the surface low may destabilize during the late afternoon/early evening with sufficient instability for a low-topped hail/wind threat near the surface low for a few hours during the early evening hours. ...Eastern Kansas... Remnant low-level moisture behind the cold front, combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to some destabilization behind the cold front during the afternoon/evening. A few southeastward moving storms/clusters may pose a large hail/damaging wind threat with the threat waning after sunset. ...Eastern Arkansas across northern MS/AL and southern Tennessee... A squall line along/ahead of the approaching cold front will move across the Mid-MS Valley into southern TN/northern AL after midnight. A very moist/unstable boundary layer and strong deep layer shear will support a damaging wind threat through the overnight hours. Some guidance indicates storm development ahead of the line across AL/TN/MS which would have a threat for all severe hazards given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level and deep-layer shear. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes appears likely across parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS and into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night. The associated surface low will begin the period in central Kansas and somewhere near Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan by 12Z Monday. Along and south of this surface low, a moist/unstable warm sector will support multiple rounds of strong to severe storms. ...Missouri through central/southern Illinois/Indiana, Kentucky, and northern Tennessee... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, responsible for the D1 severe weather episode in the central Plains is progged to be near the IA/IL/MO border at 12Z with a broad area of likely severe thunderstorms extending to the south. Storms on the northern end of this line will likely outrun the best instability and weaken during the morning, especially by the time they reach Lake Michigan. Farther south, low-level moisture advection will lead to rapid destabilization ahead of the line. This will support a sustained to perhaps increased severe weather threat as this line moves across southern Illinois and Indiana and into northern Kentucky. The primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts. Despite the stabilizing effect of this morning convection, recovery is anticipated across southern/eastern Missouri during the afternoon and eventually into southern Illinois and western Kentucky as a stout EML advects across the region from the west. The exact evolution of storm development in the wake of morning convection remains unclear. Persistent supercell development is possible on the remnant outflow boundary through the day which would have a continued wind/hail threat and could grow upscale into a cluster with an increased wind threat. However, even if storms do not continue to form along this boundary, additional storms are likely during the late afternoon/evening as a secondary shortwave trough approaches and erodes inhibition. 45 to 50 knots of effective shear will support supercell storm mode with a primary threat of large hail. In addition, if sufficient boundary layer recovery can occur north of the outflow boundary, the environment would be quite favorable for tornadoes with large low-level hodographs. A 10% hatched tornado threat has been added for the region where this threat may be greatest. Eventually, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the advancing cold front during the late evening which should move southeast and persist for the entire overnight period. This will pose a primary threat for damaging winds although there will be some tornado threat given the strengthening low-level jet during the evening hours. The orientation of the line will be the primary limiting factor to a greater tornado threat with this overnight squall line. ...Eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into Arkansas... A strongly unstable and only slightly capped environment is expected during the afternoon hours. Isolated supercells capable of large hail are possible during the afternoon as ascent from the mid-level trough overspread this region, but low-level focus will be nebulous. The better storm threat will arrive with the cold front during the evening with a damaging wind threat. However, some large hail is also possible with more scattered development/potentially transient supercell development on the southern extent of the line. ...Northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin... A narrow area near the surface low may destabilize during the late afternoon/early evening with sufficient instability for a low-topped hail/wind threat near the surface low for a few hours during the early evening hours. ...Eastern Kansas... Remnant low-level moisture behind the cold front, combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to some destabilization behind the cold front during the afternoon/evening. A few southeastward moving storms/clusters may pose a large hail/damaging wind threat with the threat waning after sunset. ...Eastern Arkansas across northern MS/AL and southern Tennessee... A squall line along/ahead of the approaching cold front will move across the Mid-MS Valley into southern TN/northern AL after midnight. A very moist/unstable boundary layer and strong deep layer shear will support a damaging wind threat through the overnight hours. Some guidance indicates storm development ahead of the line across AL/TN/MS which would have a threat for all severe hazards given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level and deep-layer shear. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes appears likely across parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS and into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night. The associated surface low will begin the period in central Kansas and somewhere near Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan by 12Z Monday. Along and south of this surface low, a moist/unstable warm sector will support multiple rounds of strong to severe storms. ...Missouri through central/southern Illinois/Indiana, Kentucky, and northern Tennessee... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, responsible for the D1 severe weather episode in the central Plains is progged to be near the IA/IL/MO border at 12Z with a broad area of likely severe thunderstorms extending to the south. Storms on the northern end of this line will likely outrun the best instability and weaken during the morning, especially by the time they reach Lake Michigan. Farther south, low-level moisture advection will lead to rapid destabilization ahead of the line. This will support a sustained to perhaps increased severe weather threat as this line moves across southern Illinois and Indiana and into northern Kentucky. The primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts. Despite the stabilizing effect of this morning convection, recovery is anticipated across southern/eastern Missouri during the afternoon and eventually into southern Illinois and western Kentucky as a stout EML advects across the region from the west. The exact evolution of storm development in the wake of morning convection remains unclear. Persistent supercell development is possible on the remnant outflow boundary through the day which would have a continued wind/hail threat and could grow upscale into a cluster with an increased wind threat. However, even if storms do not continue to form along this boundary, additional storms are likely during the late afternoon/evening as a secondary shortwave trough approaches and erodes inhibition. 45 to 50 knots of effective shear will support supercell storm mode with a primary threat of large hail. In addition, if sufficient boundary layer recovery can occur north of the outflow boundary, the environment would be quite favorable for tornadoes with large low-level hodographs. A 10% hatched tornado threat has been added for the region where this threat may be greatest. Eventually, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the advancing cold front during the late evening which should move southeast and persist for the entire overnight period. This will pose a primary threat for damaging winds although there will be some tornado threat given the strengthening low-level jet during the evening hours. The orientation of the line will be the primary limiting factor to a greater tornado threat with this overnight squall line. ...Eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into Arkansas... A strongly unstable and only slightly capped environment is expected during the afternoon hours. Isolated supercells capable of large hail are possible during the afternoon as ascent from the mid-level trough overspread this region, but low-level focus will be nebulous. The better storm threat will arrive with the cold front during the evening with a damaging wind threat. However, some large hail is also possible with more scattered development/potentially transient supercell development on the southern extent of the line. ...Northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin... A narrow area near the surface low may destabilize during the late afternoon/early evening with sufficient instability for a low-topped hail/wind threat near the surface low for a few hours during the early evening hours. ...Eastern Kansas... Remnant low-level moisture behind the cold front, combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to some destabilization behind the cold front during the afternoon/evening. A few southeastward moving storms/clusters may pose a large hail/damaging wind threat with the threat waning after sunset. ...Eastern Arkansas across northern MS/AL and southern Tennessee... A squall line along/ahead of the approaching cold front will move across the Mid-MS Valley into southern TN/northern AL after midnight. A very moist/unstable boundary layer and strong deep layer shear will support a damaging wind threat through the overnight hours. Some guidance indicates storm development ahead of the line across AL/TN/MS which would have a threat for all severe hazards given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level and deep-layer shear. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes appears likely across parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS and into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night. The associated surface low will begin the period in central Kansas and somewhere near Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan by 12Z Monday. Along and south of this surface low, a moist/unstable warm sector will support multiple rounds of strong to severe storms. ...Missouri through central/southern Illinois/Indiana, Kentucky, and northern Tennessee... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, responsible for the D1 severe weather episode in the central Plains is progged to be near the IA/IL/MO border at 12Z with a broad area of likely severe thunderstorms extending to the south. Storms on the northern end of this line will likely outrun the best instability and weaken during the morning, especially by the time they reach Lake Michigan. Farther south, low-level moisture advection will lead to rapid destabilization ahead of the line. This will support a sustained to perhaps increased severe weather threat as this line moves across southern Illinois and Indiana and into northern Kentucky. The primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts. Despite the stabilizing effect of this morning convection, recovery is anticipated across southern/eastern Missouri during the afternoon and eventually into southern Illinois and western Kentucky as a stout EML advects across the region from the west. The exact evolution of storm development in the wake of morning convection remains unclear. Persistent supercell development is possible on the remnant outflow boundary through the day which would have a continued wind/hail threat and could grow upscale into a cluster with an increased wind threat. However, even if storms do not continue to form along this boundary, additional storms are likely during the late afternoon/evening as a secondary shortwave trough approaches and erodes inhibition. 45 to 50 knots of effective shear will support supercell storm mode with a primary threat of large hail. In addition, if sufficient boundary layer recovery can occur north of the outflow boundary, the environment would be quite favorable for tornadoes with large low-level hodographs. A 10% hatched tornado threat has been added for the region where this threat may be greatest. Eventually, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the advancing cold front during the late evening which should move southeast and persist for the entire overnight period. This will pose a primary threat for damaging winds although there will be some tornado threat given the strengthening low-level jet during the evening hours. The orientation of the line will be the primary limiting factor to a greater tornado threat with this overnight squall line. ...Eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into Arkansas... A strongly unstable and only slightly capped environment is expected during the afternoon hours. Isolated supercells capable of large hail are possible during the afternoon as ascent from the mid-level trough overspread this region, but low-level focus will be nebulous. The better storm threat will arrive with the cold front during the evening with a damaging wind threat. However, some large hail is also possible with more scattered development/potentially transient supercell development on the southern extent of the line. ...Northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin... A narrow area near the surface low may destabilize during the late afternoon/early evening with sufficient instability for a low-topped hail/wind threat near the surface low for a few hours during the early evening hours. ...Eastern Kansas... Remnant low-level moisture behind the cold front, combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to some destabilization behind the cold front during the afternoon/evening. A few southeastward moving storms/clusters may pose a large hail/damaging wind threat with the threat waning after sunset. ...Eastern Arkansas across northern MS/AL and southern Tennessee... A squall line along/ahead of the approaching cold front will move across the Mid-MS Valley into southern TN/northern AL after midnight. A very moist/unstable boundary layer and strong deep layer shear will support a damaging wind threat through the overnight hours. Some guidance indicates storm development ahead of the line across AL/TN/MS which would have a threat for all severe hazards given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level and deep-layer shear. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes appears likely across parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS and into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night. The associated surface low will begin the period in central Kansas and somewhere near Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan by 12Z Monday. Along and south of this surface low, a moist/unstable warm sector will support multiple rounds of strong to severe storms. ...Missouri through central/southern Illinois/Indiana, Kentucky, and northern Tennessee... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, responsible for the D1 severe weather episode in the central Plains is progged to be near the IA/IL/MO border at 12Z with a broad area of likely severe thunderstorms extending to the south. Storms on the northern end of this line will likely outrun the best instability and weaken during the morning, especially by the time they reach Lake Michigan. Farther south, low-level moisture advection will lead to rapid destabilization ahead of the line. This will support a sustained to perhaps increased severe weather threat as this line moves across southern Illinois and Indiana and into northern Kentucky. The primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts. Despite the stabilizing effect of this morning convection, recovery is anticipated across southern/eastern Missouri during the afternoon and eventually into southern Illinois and western Kentucky as a stout EML advects across the region from the west. The exact evolution of storm development in the wake of morning convection remains unclear. Persistent supercell development is possible on the remnant outflow boundary through the day which would have a continued wind/hail threat and could grow upscale into a cluster with an increased wind threat. However, even if storms do not continue to form along this boundary, additional storms are likely during the late afternoon/evening as a secondary shortwave trough approaches and erodes inhibition. 45 to 50 knots of effective shear will support supercell storm mode with a primary threat of large hail. In addition, if sufficient boundary layer recovery can occur north of the outflow boundary, the environment would be quite favorable for tornadoes with large low-level hodographs. A 10% hatched tornado threat has been added for the region where this threat may be greatest. Eventually, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the advancing cold front during the late evening which should move southeast and persist for the entire overnight period. This will pose a primary threat for damaging winds although there will be some tornado threat given the strengthening low-level jet during the evening hours. The orientation of the line will be the primary limiting factor to a greater tornado threat with this overnight squall line. ...Eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into Arkansas... A strongly unstable and only slightly capped environment is expected during the afternoon hours. Isolated supercells capable of large hail are possible during the afternoon as ascent from the mid-level trough overspread this region, but low-level focus will be nebulous. The better storm threat will arrive with the cold front during the evening with a damaging wind threat. However, some large hail is also possible with more scattered development/potentially transient supercell development on the southern extent of the line. ...Northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin... A narrow area near the surface low may destabilize during the late afternoon/early evening with sufficient instability for a low-topped hail/wind threat near the surface low for a few hours during the early evening hours. ...Eastern Kansas... Remnant low-level moisture behind the cold front, combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to some destabilization behind the cold front during the afternoon/evening. A few southeastward moving storms/clusters may pose a large hail/damaging wind threat with the threat waning after sunset. ...Eastern Arkansas across northern MS/AL and southern Tennessee... A squall line along/ahead of the approaching cold front will move across the Mid-MS Valley into southern TN/northern AL after midnight. A very moist/unstable boundary layer and strong deep layer shear will support a damaging wind threat through the overnight hours. Some guidance indicates storm development ahead of the line across AL/TN/MS which would have a threat for all severe hazards given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level and deep-layer shear. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes appears likely across parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS and into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night. The associated surface low will begin the period in central Kansas and somewhere near Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan by 12Z Monday. Along and south of this surface low, a moist/unstable warm sector will support multiple rounds of strong to severe storms. ...Missouri through central/southern Illinois/Indiana, Kentucky, and northern Tennessee... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, responsible for the D1 severe weather episode in the central Plains is progged to be near the IA/IL/MO border at 12Z with a broad area of likely severe thunderstorms extending to the south. Storms on the northern end of this line will likely outrun the best instability and weaken during the morning, especially by the time they reach Lake Michigan. Farther south, low-level moisture advection will lead to rapid destabilization ahead of the line. This will support a sustained to perhaps increased severe weather threat as this line moves across southern Illinois and Indiana and into northern Kentucky. The primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts. Despite the stabilizing effect of this morning convection, recovery is anticipated across southern/eastern Missouri during the afternoon and eventually into southern Illinois and western Kentucky as a stout EML advects across the region from the west. The exact evolution of storm development in the wake of morning convection remains unclear. Persistent supercell development is possible on the remnant outflow boundary through the day which would have a continued wind/hail threat and could grow upscale into a cluster with an increased wind threat. However, even if storms do not continue to form along this boundary, additional storms are likely during the late afternoon/evening as a secondary shortwave trough approaches and erodes inhibition. 45 to 50 knots of effective shear will support supercell storm mode with a primary threat of large hail. In addition, if sufficient boundary layer recovery can occur north of the outflow boundary, the environment would be quite favorable for tornadoes with large low-level hodographs. A 10% hatched tornado threat has been added for the region where this threat may be greatest. Eventually, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the advancing cold front during the late evening which should move southeast and persist for the entire overnight period. This will pose a primary threat for damaging winds although there will be some tornado threat given the strengthening low-level jet during the evening hours. The orientation of the line will be the primary limiting factor to a greater tornado threat with this overnight squall line. ...Eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into Arkansas... A strongly unstable and only slightly capped environment is expected during the afternoon hours. Isolated supercells capable of large hail are possible during the afternoon as ascent from the mid-level trough overspread this region, but low-level focus will be nebulous. The better storm threat will arrive with the cold front during the evening with a damaging wind threat. However, some large hail is also possible with more scattered development/potentially transient supercell development on the southern extent of the line. ...Northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin... A narrow area near the surface low may destabilize during the late afternoon/early evening with sufficient instability for a low-topped hail/wind threat near the surface low for a few hours during the early evening hours. ...Eastern Kansas... Remnant low-level moisture behind the cold front, combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to some destabilization behind the cold front during the afternoon/evening. A few southeastward moving storms/clusters may pose a large hail/damaging wind threat with the threat waning after sunset. ...Eastern Arkansas across northern MS/AL and southern Tennessee... A squall line along/ahead of the approaching cold front will move across the Mid-MS Valley into southern TN/northern AL after midnight. A very moist/unstable boundary layer and strong deep layer shear will support a damaging wind threat through the overnight hours. Some guidance indicates storm development ahead of the line across AL/TN/MS which would have a threat for all severe hazards given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level and deep-layer shear. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes appears likely across parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS and into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night. The associated surface low will begin the period in central Kansas and somewhere near Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan by 12Z Monday. Along and south of this surface low, a moist/unstable warm sector will support multiple rounds of strong to severe storms. ...Missouri through central/southern Illinois/Indiana, Kentucky, and northern Tennessee... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, responsible for the D1 severe weather episode in the central Plains is progged to be near the IA/IL/MO border at 12Z with a broad area of likely severe thunderstorms extending to the south. Storms on the northern end of this line will likely outrun the best instability and weaken during the morning, especially by the time they reach Lake Michigan. Farther south, low-level moisture advection will lead to rapid destabilization ahead of the line. This will support a sustained to perhaps increased severe weather threat as this line moves across southern Illinois and Indiana and into northern Kentucky. The primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts. Despite the stabilizing effect of this morning convection, recovery is anticipated across southern/eastern Missouri during the afternoon and eventually into southern Illinois and western Kentucky as a stout EML advects across the region from the west. The exact evolution of storm development in the wake of morning convection remains unclear. Persistent supercell development is possible on the remnant outflow boundary through the day which would have a continued wind/hail threat and could grow upscale into a cluster with an increased wind threat. However, even if storms do not continue to form along this boundary, additional storms are likely during the late afternoon/evening as a secondary shortwave trough approaches and erodes inhibition. 45 to 50 knots of effective shear will support supercell storm mode with a primary threat of large hail. In addition, if sufficient boundary layer recovery can occur north of the outflow boundary, the environment would be quite favorable for tornadoes with large low-level hodographs. A 10% hatched tornado threat has been added for the region where this threat may be greatest. Eventually, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the advancing cold front during the late evening which should move southeast and persist for the entire overnight period. This will pose a primary threat for damaging winds although there will be some tornado threat given the strengthening low-level jet during the evening hours. The orientation of the line will be the primary limiting factor to a greater tornado threat with this overnight squall line. ...Eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into Arkansas... A strongly unstable and only slightly capped environment is expected during the afternoon hours. Isolated supercells capable of large hail are possible during the afternoon as ascent from the mid-level trough overspread this region, but low-level focus will be nebulous. The better storm threat will arrive with the cold front during the evening with a damaging wind threat. However, some large hail is also possible with more scattered development/potentially transient supercell development on the southern extent of the line. ...Northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin... A narrow area near the surface low may destabilize during the late afternoon/early evening with sufficient instability for a low-topped hail/wind threat near the surface low for a few hours during the early evening hours. ...Eastern Kansas... Remnant low-level moisture behind the cold front, combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to some destabilization behind the cold front during the afternoon/evening. A few southeastward moving storms/clusters may pose a large hail/damaging wind threat with the threat waning after sunset. ...Eastern Arkansas across northern MS/AL and southern Tennessee... A squall line along/ahead of the approaching cold front will move across the Mid-MS Valley into southern TN/northern AL after midnight. A very moist/unstable boundary layer and strong deep layer shear will support a damaging wind threat through the overnight hours. Some guidance indicates storm development ahead of the line across AL/TN/MS which would have a threat for all severe hazards given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level and deep-layer shear. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes appears likely across parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS and into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night. The associated surface low will begin the period in central Kansas and somewhere near Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan by 12Z Monday. Along and south of this surface low, a moist/unstable warm sector will support multiple rounds of strong to severe storms. ...Missouri through central/southern Illinois/Indiana, Kentucky, and northern Tennessee... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, responsible for the D1 severe weather episode in the central Plains is progged to be near the IA/IL/MO border at 12Z with a broad area of likely severe thunderstorms extending to the south. Storms on the northern end of this line will likely outrun the best instability and weaken during the morning, especially by the time they reach Lake Michigan. Farther south, low-level moisture advection will lead to rapid destabilization ahead of the line. This will support a sustained to perhaps increased severe weather threat as this line moves across southern Illinois and Indiana and into northern Kentucky. The primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts. Despite the stabilizing effect of this morning convection, recovery is anticipated across southern/eastern Missouri during the afternoon and eventually into southern Illinois and western Kentucky as a stout EML advects across the region from the west. The exact evolution of storm development in the wake of morning convection remains unclear. Persistent supercell development is possible on the remnant outflow boundary through the day which would have a continued wind/hail threat and could grow upscale into a cluster with an increased wind threat. However, even if storms do not continue to form along this boundary, additional storms are likely during the late afternoon/evening as a secondary shortwave trough approaches and erodes inhibition. 45 to 50 knots of effective shear will support supercell storm mode with a primary threat of large hail. In addition, if sufficient boundary layer recovery can occur north of the outflow boundary, the environment would be quite favorable for tornadoes with large low-level hodographs. A 10% hatched tornado threat has been added for the region where this threat may be greatest. Eventually, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the advancing cold front during the late evening which should move southeast and persist for the entire overnight period. This will pose a primary threat for damaging winds although there will be some tornado threat given the strengthening low-level jet during the evening hours. The orientation of the line will be the primary limiting factor to a greater tornado threat with this overnight squall line. ...Eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into Arkansas... A strongly unstable and only slightly capped environment is expected during the afternoon hours. Isolated supercells capable of large hail are possible during the afternoon as ascent from the mid-level trough overspread this region, but low-level focus will be nebulous. The better storm threat will arrive with the cold front during the evening with a damaging wind threat. However, some large hail is also possible with more scattered development/potentially transient supercell development on the southern extent of the line. ...Northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin... A narrow area near the surface low may destabilize during the late afternoon/early evening with sufficient instability for a low-topped hail/wind threat near the surface low for a few hours during the early evening hours. ...Eastern Kansas... Remnant low-level moisture behind the cold front, combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to some destabilization behind the cold front during the afternoon/evening. A few southeastward moving storms/clusters may pose a large hail/damaging wind threat with the threat waning after sunset. ...Eastern Arkansas across northern MS/AL and southern Tennessee... A squall line along/ahead of the approaching cold front will move across the Mid-MS Valley into southern TN/northern AL after midnight. A very moist/unstable boundary layer and strong deep layer shear will support a damaging wind threat through the overnight hours. Some guidance indicates storm development ahead of the line across AL/TN/MS which would have a threat for all severe hazards given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level and deep-layer shear. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes appears likely across parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS and into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night. The associated surface low will begin the period in central Kansas and somewhere near Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan by 12Z Monday. Along and south of this surface low, a moist/unstable warm sector will support multiple rounds of strong to severe storms. ...Missouri through central/southern Illinois/Indiana, Kentucky, and northern Tennessee... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, responsible for the D1 severe weather episode in the central Plains is progged to be near the IA/IL/MO border at 12Z with a broad area of likely severe thunderstorms extending to the south. Storms on the northern end of this line will likely outrun the best instability and weaken during the morning, especially by the time they reach Lake Michigan. Farther south, low-level moisture advection will lead to rapid destabilization ahead of the line. This will support a sustained to perhaps increased severe weather threat as this line moves across southern Illinois and Indiana and into northern Kentucky. The primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts. Despite the stabilizing effect of this morning convection, recovery is anticipated across southern/eastern Missouri during the afternoon and eventually into southern Illinois and western Kentucky as a stout EML advects across the region from the west. The exact evolution of storm development in the wake of morning convection remains unclear. Persistent supercell development is possible on the remnant outflow boundary through the day which would have a continued wind/hail threat and could grow upscale into a cluster with an increased wind threat. However, even if storms do not continue to form along this boundary, additional storms are likely during the late afternoon/evening as a secondary shortwave trough approaches and erodes inhibition. 45 to 50 knots of effective shear will support supercell storm mode with a primary threat of large hail. In addition, if sufficient boundary layer recovery can occur north of the outflow boundary, the environment would be quite favorable for tornadoes with large low-level hodographs. A 10% hatched tornado threat has been added for the region where this threat may be greatest. Eventually, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the advancing cold front during the late evening which should move southeast and persist for the entire overnight period. This will pose a primary threat for damaging winds although there will be some tornado threat given the strengthening low-level jet during the evening hours. The orientation of the line will be the primary limiting factor to a greater tornado threat with this overnight squall line. ...Eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into Arkansas... A strongly unstable and only slightly capped environment is expected during the afternoon hours. Isolated supercells capable of large hail are possible during the afternoon as ascent from the mid-level trough overspread this region, but low-level focus will be nebulous. The better storm threat will arrive with the cold front during the evening with a damaging wind threat. However, some large hail is also possible with more scattered development/potentially transient supercell development on the southern extent of the line. ...Northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin... A narrow area near the surface low may destabilize during the late afternoon/early evening with sufficient instability for a low-topped hail/wind threat near the surface low for a few hours during the early evening hours. ...Eastern Kansas... Remnant low-level moisture behind the cold front, combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to some destabilization behind the cold front during the afternoon/evening. A few southeastward moving storms/clusters may pose a large hail/damaging wind threat with the threat waning after sunset. ...Eastern Arkansas across northern MS/AL and southern Tennessee... A squall line along/ahead of the approaching cold front will move across the Mid-MS Valley into southern TN/northern AL after midnight. A very moist/unstable boundary layer and strong deep layer shear will support a damaging wind threat through the overnight hours. Some guidance indicates storm development ahead of the line across AL/TN/MS which would have a threat for all severe hazards given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level and deep-layer shear. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... No changes are need to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Morning satellite and surface observations show mostly sunny skies, relative humidity in the teens to single digits, and winds generally around 15-20 mph (gusting 30-40 mph across the high terrain) as of 16z. Several more hours of Critical to Extremely Critical conditions are likely, especially along and in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains where enhanced downslope flow will result in dangerous fire weather conditions. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... No changes are need to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Morning satellite and surface observations show mostly sunny skies, relative humidity in the teens to single digits, and winds generally around 15-20 mph (gusting 30-40 mph across the high terrain) as of 16z. Several more hours of Critical to Extremely Critical conditions are likely, especially along and in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains where enhanced downslope flow will result in dangerous fire weather conditions. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... No changes are need to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Morning satellite and surface observations show mostly sunny skies, relative humidity in the teens to single digits, and winds generally around 15-20 mph (gusting 30-40 mph across the high terrain) as of 16z. Several more hours of Critical to Extremely Critical conditions are likely, especially along and in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains where enhanced downslope flow will result in dangerous fire weather conditions. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... No changes are need to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Morning satellite and surface observations show mostly sunny skies, relative humidity in the teens to single digits, and winds generally around 15-20 mph (gusting 30-40 mph across the high terrain) as of 16z. Several more hours of Critical to Extremely Critical conditions are likely, especially along and in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains where enhanced downslope flow will result in dangerous fire weather conditions. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... No changes are need to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Morning satellite and surface observations show mostly sunny skies, relative humidity in the teens to single digits, and winds generally around 15-20 mph (gusting 30-40 mph across the high terrain) as of 16z. Several more hours of Critical to Extremely Critical conditions are likely, especially along and in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains where enhanced downslope flow will result in dangerous fire weather conditions. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... No changes are need to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Morning satellite and surface observations show mostly sunny skies, relative humidity in the teens to single digits, and winds generally around 15-20 mph (gusting 30-40 mph across the high terrain) as of 16z. Several more hours of Critical to Extremely Critical conditions are likely, especially along and in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains where enhanced downslope flow will result in dangerous fire weather conditions. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... No changes are need to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Morning satellite and surface observations show mostly sunny skies, relative humidity in the teens to single digits, and winds generally around 15-20 mph (gusting 30-40 mph across the high terrain) as of 16z. Several more hours of Critical to Extremely Critical conditions are likely, especially along and in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains where enhanced downslope flow will result in dangerous fire weather conditions. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... No changes are need to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Morning satellite and surface observations show mostly sunny skies, relative humidity in the teens to single digits, and winds generally around 15-20 mph (gusting 30-40 mph across the high terrain) as of 16z. Several more hours of Critical to Extremely Critical conditions are likely, especially along and in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains where enhanced downslope flow will result in dangerous fire weather conditions. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... No changes are need to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Morning satellite and surface observations show mostly sunny skies, relative humidity in the teens to single digits, and winds generally around 15-20 mph (gusting 30-40 mph across the high terrain) as of 16z. Several more hours of Critical to Extremely Critical conditions are likely, especially along and in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains where enhanced downslope flow will result in dangerous fire weather conditions. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... No changes are need to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Morning satellite and surface observations show mostly sunny skies, relative humidity in the teens to single digits, and winds generally around 15-20 mph (gusting 30-40 mph across the high terrain) as of 16z. Several more hours of Critical to Extremely Critical conditions are likely, especially along and in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains where enhanced downslope flow will result in dangerous fire weather conditions. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TEXAS...COLORADO...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA... No changes are need to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. Critical to Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the southern High Plains. Morning satellite and surface observations show mostly sunny skies, relative humidity in the teens to single digits, and winds generally around 15-20 mph (gusting 30-40 mph across the high terrain) as of 16z. Several more hours of Critical to Extremely Critical conditions are likely, especially along and in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains where enhanced downslope flow will result in dangerous fire weather conditions. See previous discussion for more information below. ..Thornton.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across a broad swath of the southern High Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave moving into the lower CO River Valley. This feature, and its associated mid-level jet max, are forecast to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, resulting in strong winds over a region with antecedent hot/dry conditions. As of 05 UTC, surface observations across southern NM and far west TX were sampling RH values in the single digits. Any nocturnal RH recovery will be rapidly offset by strong diurnal warming through early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 90s. 00 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled dry conditions from the surface through 500 mb, suggesting that deep boundary-layer mixing is likely again this afternoon. A lee cyclone will steadily deepen over the next 12-24 hours across eastern CO, resulting in strengthening west/southwesterly winds across the southern High Plains. Recent ensemble guidance shows high probability of sustained 20-25 mph winds across a broad swath of NM into adjacent portions of CO, TX, KS, and OK with the potential for gusts upwards of 30-40 mph. Multiple days of single-digit RH values has dried most fine fuels with ERC values above the 90th percentile for parts of West TX and southern NM. Consequently, widespread Critical conditions are expected, beginning as early as 17 UTC across southern NM and becoming widespread by 19 UTC. Extremely critical conditions are probable for portions of south-central NM into far southwest TX. Enhanced downslope winds in the lee of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains should support sustained winds near 30 mph. The passage of the mid-level jet max over this region at peak heating (when mixing should be deepest) should result in wind gusts between 40-55 mph. While these conditions are expected to be somewhat confined spatially, both deterministic and ensemble guidance show reasonably good agreement in this scenario. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more