Severe Storms

MD 0953 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0953 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Areas affected...easter portions of the Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251922Z - 252115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of strong wind gusts or an instance of large hail may accompany the stronger storms, particularly those that can remain near sea-breeze boundaries. The severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Multiple pulse-cellular thunderstorms have developed due to localized convergence along sea-breeze boundaries over the past few hours. Along the sea-breeze boundary, locally stronger deep-layer shear exists (per 19Z mesoanalysis). As such, any storm that can anchor to the sea-breeze for a longer period of time will be capable of becoming transient supercellular, perhaps accompanied with the risk of strong wind gusts or an instances or two of hail. Nonetheless, the localized and brief nature of the severe threat along the sea-breeze boundary precludes a WW issuance. ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 28208086 27768034 26628002 25998012 25878050 26228090 27058107 27598117 27848123 28208086 Read more

WW 0308 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0308 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. Expanded all outlook categories eastward across Missouri based on increased confidence in multiple supercells across southern Kansas congealing into a cluster during the overnight period. RAP forecast soundings show extreme buoyancy (3500+ J/kg) continuing through the overnight period amid robust low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates. A forward propagating cluster capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes is expected to persist through 12Z Sunday. The only other change was to expand the moderate farther south into north Texas based on recent observational trends. Numerous supercells have formed west of this area and should persist as they continue east into a high theta-e airmass. Large hail will be the primary threat with an increasing tornado threat near 00Z as the low-level jet intensifies. No changes were made to the primary risk area. See MCD #954 for additional discussion of the threat in this area. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024/ ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. Read more

MD 0951 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0951 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Areas affected...parts of west-central into northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 251841Z - 252015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated supercells are expected to form over the next 1-2 hours along the dryline over west-central into parts of northwest TX. Very large hail and a couple tornadoes will be possible. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows an extremely moist air mass with 70s F dewpoints extending west toward the Snyder/Sweetwater area, along a developing dryline. Strong heating will aid further destabilization and CIN removal, as low-level convergence gradually increase near the dryline. Visible imagery already shows towers forming in this area, suggesting at least isolated supercells will soon form. Extreme instability as well as impressive mid to high level winds will strongly favor very large and damaging hail. Although the primary tornado risk is forecast north of this area later today, a couple tornadoes appear likely with the southern supercells given favorable storm mode, impressive updrafts, and gradually increasingly low-level SRH through early evening. ..Jewell/Bunting.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31080128 31790105 32460094 33610079 33770040 33779985 33729938 33549907 33339884 33079877 32329888 31359926 30589978 30450069 30770109 31080128 Read more